[5NL] KQo...Value bet river?

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 9/9/6 over 194 hands. CB 80%,

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $5.22
UTG: $5.00
MP: $4.94
CO: $5.44
BTN: $9.40
SB: $5.18

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K Q

fold, MP raises to $0.15, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32, 2 players) 7 J 2
Hero checks, MP bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

Turn: ($0.82, 2 players) A
Hero checks, MP bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

River: ($2.02, 2 players) T
Hero ???

[eugmac]

I don't know if our draw is good enough to be check/calling either flop or turn.

[Savy]

I'm confused, are you asking whether we should donk for value or assume that villain has us beat and you want to x/f instead of x/c if he bets?

Also fold pre? KQo is dominated by so much of his range and you get paid off by so little when you do hit unless you hit KQ and he has AK.

And flop and river aren't obvious calls either.

In fact I think the river is the easiest part of this hand.

[kickass]

Villain is 9/9 and you want to play kqo oop?

[eugmac]

Oh yeah, missed the questionable preflop call too. A 9/9 raising in MP looks like pretty ugly reverse implied odds for us on a lot of top pair flops.

[Cobra_1878]

I'm confused, are you asking whether we should donk for value or assume that villain has us beat and you want to x/f instead of x/c if he bets?

Also fold pre? KQo is dominated by so much of his range and you get paid off by so little when you do hit unless you hit KQ and he has AK.

And flop and river aren't obvious calls either.

In fact I think the river is the easiest part of this hand.

I'm asking whether I should donk and value bet the river.

[Savy]

I think it depends on how you think he'll react.

Donk/call is good if you think he's going to raise.
x/r is good if you think he's going to bet imo.

He has like no flushes in his range (AcQc & AcTc isn't unrealistic here I think) really so we just want to pick the way that we think the most ends up in the middle. Personally as I think his range is basically just sets and two pair so I think x/r is best. Especially when he probably bets all his AK, AQ, too.

[Carroters]

Fold preflop. Much prefer leading flop to anything else. Lead > c/f >>>> c/c >>>>>>>> c/r. Fold turn as played. Probasbly just leading river since nits love to check AK/AQ here.

[BorisTheSpider]

Agreed that a 9/9 is checking behind AK/AQ, likely AJ too and even sets sometimes so you have to lead the river. Make it small too, like $0.90, you want a crying call from his sets and TPGK. Nothing you beat is every raising.

But yeah, fold pre.

Carroters - why not c/r flop? You don't think nittychops bets it at all without the Ac or at least a set he feels unable to fold?

[Carroters]

Why would you want to c/r vs a set he's not willing to fold? I hate c/r flop as his betting range is going to be pretty strong. Pretty much all of the AK/AQ he bets with will have Ac and isn't folding. Our draw is the type of draw that never gets any more money into the pot unless it's crushed on club turns/rivers. Even his QQ/AA combos will have a club half the time and when they don't does he even fold them? Yeah I hate c/r flop.

[BorisTheSpider]

Why would you want to c/r vs a set he's not willing to fold?

I wouldn't - that was my point, I meant when he bets the flop I presume you don't think he has much left that he'll fold when we raise. Which is what you clarified in your second post, so yeah, I get it now.