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Bjaust seems to get the point of my post.
The point of the post isn't the application i used, but the application is good because brings out a very good point. You're right Marshall, there is like almost no time where any decent player has gotten to the river, has the nuts, has money left behind to c/r, and is out of position. This is exactly why i used it to illustrate my point. In the hand, you have to rely purely on your fold equity in a vacuum to make c/r a good play, because you never have a nut hand here. However, if you have a nut hand 30% of the time you c/r, or even 20% or 10%, it adds significant equity to your bet (bluff). This is my point, having hands that will win in your range anytime you are bluffing increases the value of your ranges and furthermore lowers the amount of FE you need, which i absolutely awesome. Because with raising, you're usually going to have to have over 50% FE to make it a good bluff, and thats hard to have.
See my point now?
I'll add another hand that came up yesterday that illustrates my point again:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
SB ($180)
BB ($1067)
UTG ($735.75)
Hero ($594)
CO ($1385.50)
Button ($987.60)
Preflop: Hero is MP with K, A. UTG posts a blind of $6.
Hero raises to $21, CO calls $21, Button calls $21, 2 folds.
Flop: ($72) 5, 4, 2 (4 players)
Hero bets $55, CO calls $55, Button calls $55.
Turn: ($237) 8 (4 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks.
River: ($237) 9 (4 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $108, Button calls $108, Hero.
In this hand the CO is a loosish-aggressivish donk and the Button is a reg but a pretty tight. In the hand, i felt CO most likely had a missed draw turned bluff or a weak made hand and the button also had a weak made hand.
So when the action go back to me i considered a shove, and i think an old me would have. But lets analyze the situation in terms of What i outlined in the OP:
1) My shove is about pot sized, which means i need 50% FE looking at the hand in a vacuum.
2) I never show up with a nut hand here, ever. There is no added equity to my bet so i still need 50% FE.
3) donk could have played a strong hand weirdly, it's unlikely. But i expect him to fold one pair hands and missed draws most of the time.
4) i have bad image against tight reg, so he may hero call me. But i'd expect him to fold a decent amount.
Given this analysis (and yes it's not very descriptive but i don't care), it's hard to tell what to do, my FE is seems around 50%. I ended up folding.
Now if i happened to have 20% of nut hands in my range here (AND let me emphasize, i would never to this because against these players this is not the way to play a nut hand) clearly do this play because i really don't need that much FE (i don't know the calculations but i assume it would be around 15% or something like that). With this, you don't need to avoid using bluffs that need high FE on there own because you have this added equity (oh god i repeat this point so much but yeah).
P.S. ISF interviewed KingsofCards a while back, who is a very good HU and 6-max player. He said in the interview that he knew what his own range was every time he made an action. I think that was pretty cool, but more importantly now i see why he thought that this was important.
p.s.s. I feel like this post was basically the same as the OP, but maybe there's a little different explanation somewhere in it that may help you get it better. Keep asking questions if you're interested and i'll try to explain as well as possible.
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