how to adjust vs tricky tag

This guy is 20/16/2 with afold to cbet% of 55 and has c/r'd me once before on a Kxx two tone cbet. He has a 3b% of 2 which makes me think he doesn't bluff raise much. How do you like my 2 bar, and do you ever shove here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($133.55)
BB ($74.20)
Hero ($130.55)
MP ($103.10)
Button ($33.05)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, J.
Hero raises to $4, MP calls $4, 3 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) 2, Q, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $7, MP calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $15, MP calls $15.

River: ($53.50) T (2 players)

I think you should get a lot of folds on this board against your 2-barrel taking into account you opened UTG.

That does NOT, however, mean you do get a lot of folds.

Shoving seems -EV to me as the board texture hasn't changed at all.

Easy check/fold.

I might check the turn.

I read somewhere sometime that if we're betting with a FD and miss, we should shove the river sometimes to balance for when we do hit. What boards/textures would be more conducive to that? Perhaps an A on the river?

a shove on this river is really bad i think for a couple of reasons ... one, you have ~75 behind or something and the pot is like 50, it doesn't make sense. two, you wouldn't have bet only 15 on the turn if you wanted to play for more money, you woulda bet closer to pot, this would be a very big reason i decide to look you up...and three, you really only represent very few hands by a shove, 22, 88, QQ, and maybe AQ hoping to get looked up by KQ or QJ (and also hoping he didn't catch 2 pr w/ QT)? That just doesn't add up in my mind.

As far as the double barrel goes, i suppose it's ok considering he could have called the flop w/ an 8x hand or something like 99/TT/JJ (which if he only 3bets 2% i don't think he 3bets a UTG raiser with). These hands should all likely fold unless he thinks you've been getting out of line.

What cards should you jam on? I don't think I'd jam on any ... would you jam if a diamond fell? I think you'd want to get paid off and probably would make a value bet, since if he calls the turn he has to be pretty strong. So probably wouldn't jam any river card, also since AQ seems to be a decent part of his range here I don't think I'd like to triple barrel this guy, he might even end up looking you up w/ something like KQ regardless. He just seems too strong after calling the turn.

3 barrel is prob slightly +ev... he never has a big hand here

Id double barrel this myself, though id bet turn a little bigger, once ive been called on the turn i just check fold the river.

Originally Posted by Genitruc

3 barrel is prob slightly +ev... he never has a big hand here

agree, but you need a good image and a read that he can fold TPGK here. Most people can't, because people are stations.

Only bet the turn if you plan on firing a third barrell IMO. The board didn't change really at all on the turn.

Betting flop and c/f turn is fine unless you notice him habitually floating.

do we agree that the best hand he ever has is KQ?

Assuming he calls always with KQ I still think it's a profitable 3 barrel

whoever says check-fold this turn is insane

either 2 barrel or CR

anyone ever c/bomb the turn?

Originally Posted by Genitruc

whoever says check-fold this turn is insane

either 2 barrel or CR

Whoops...

I missed the backdoor we picked up. I agree it would be an insane check/fold given that. Without it I'd be willing to c/f

2 barrell or C/r both seem fine, based on your read on villain

This is an interesting spot. Betting the turn allows us to control the pot size a bit more efficiently, and checking really disguises our hand if we hit our draw. If our implied odds don't change on the river regardless of whether we bet or check the turn, betting seems to be the better option as we get to dictate the bet sizing. But are we bet-folding, or bet-calling? If he flats are we check calling a J on the river, or leading out (i'm guessing c/c)? What about a King?

I think regardless, if we hit our flush we're shoving the river.
As played I'm not sure how much of his range he gets to the river with and folds if you shove, but i think it's a good portion.

He pretty much can't call with the bulk of his non-set, non-two pair holdings (except as pointed out earlier maybe KQ/QJ). I mean what's our range to shove the river, it's EXTREMELY polarized and heavily weighted towards nut hands. You probably can't have TT because you would've checked TT on the turn, so 22,77,88,JJ+,AQ. Your range seems heavily slanted to sets and overpairs than AK. What else are you raising with under the gun that you would lead two streets OOP and shove the river. He'd have to put you on a missed backdoor flush draw (what you have) way too much of the time for him to call profitably with the bulk of his non-monster hands.

I'm definitely a novice in a lot of respects, but I'm still a huge fan of making big bluffs in spots where you almost never have anything but a monster, because you'll inherently increase the frequency with which your monsters get paid off. I could be wrong about that though.

I think ISF Theory (and this is a really good example of it) would dictate that shoving can't be that bad, as your range is way way way ahead of his for making 3 aggressive actions OOP (starting with a raise UTG) and shoving the river on this board.