1/2: river nut flush 250BB deep.

Villain is a big winner at these stakes, we have no relevant history but I got him at 26/20/3.5 with 8% 3bet. Turn is marginal, berate at will.

Shove or call?


Hero (MP) ($497.75)
CO ($76.90)
Button ($200)
SB ($330.55)
BB ($688.85)
UTG ($251.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, A
1 fold, Hero bets $7, 3 folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($15) J, J, 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12, BB calls $12

Turn: ($39) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $28, BB raises to $98, Hero calls $70

River: ($235) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $210, Hero has $379 behind.

Btw Hi Im back

Without much history esp without knowing much about what he can call you with preflop OOP in BB vs MP I kinda gotta respect his hand and should likely fold turn since our equity really isnt that good.

River is more interesting imo.

yeah river seems like a fold, i mean he doesn't have a flush right?

if he had bet smaller, i would def consider calling because he can be going for thin value vs your perceived overpair but with that bet i don't think so.

to me it looks like a fold/call spot. i'd call turn + river.

I'd check behind turn I think, and as played I don't think you can do anything but call river.

I just wrote a post sounding like a total asshole but I'm going to refrain.

I'd probably call even though he's repping so little and I really want to shove. And to be honest I'd fold turn to the raise.

Turn is an easy easy easy easy easy super mega easy anything else would be terrible... bet. Your not getting raised at least over 90% of the time, although I deleted the 99% number... let me put it in lamens terms, hes not raising the turn bet often at all. You have a great draw and FE.

Turn isn't marginal you should fold

it's funny, i'm a huge nit in my posts here but I don't think i'd ever fold this in reality so i need to stop nitting my posts. Sorry about that. Also I also think the turn is a must-bet for ISF's reasons, we're in position, don't mind building the pot, have FE and a great draw (since our overs are almost always good).

I would have bet/folded turn but as played I call this river.

after you call turn your range seems like overpairs and J (I think they are not many J in your MP range)

- if I would be villain and had a J, I would bet little less to get call from your overpairs - this bet is so big and it seems to me like bluff or nuts (he could float you on the flop and try to rep J or heart flush)
- so your AQ seems like bluffcatcher here - so no value in raise

what do you guys think about this??

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I just wrote a post sounding like a total asshole but I'm going to refrain.

I'd probably call even though he's repping so little and I really want to shove. And to be honest I'd fold turn to the raise.

Turn is an easy easy easy easy easy super mega easy anything else would be terrible... bet. Your not getting raised at least over 90% of the time, although I deleted the 99% number... let me put it in lamens terms, hes not raising the turn bet often at all. You have a great draw and FE.

I want to read the post where you sound like an asshole!!!

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

Turn isn't marginal you should fold

I'm not calling just to hit my flush.

Why is everyone raving about the turn bet? I think it's the easiest bet ever and I DID BET DIDN'T I?

Originally Posted by Ravageur

yeah river seems like a fold, i mean he doesn't have a flush right?

Whaaaat? Why would I call the turn if I think he has a boat?

I was the only one questioning the turn bet really. I thought you're mostly folding out worse or get called or raised by better. But I didn't think enough about you two being deep changing ranges and so, so that's likely not true.

In general I'd rather bet a draw that actually needs FE to be profitable and that's an easier laydown once raised, and check behind a draw as good as AQss that's profitable by his pot equity alone but still can't really call a raise.

But I 'forgot' you we're deep AND in hindsight the above probably isn't very applicable in this spot anyway.

Sorry for the bringing your thread a little of your questions.

Question is where he draws the line whether he´s getting coolered or not, but given that his line is fairly strong and we can have quiet some more boats than he could possibly hold Im calling this. You´d need some sort of dynamic between youse to have him paying off with Jx and I dont know what flushes could fit the flop action?

um i wouldnt shove the river, i mean yea it seems obv that he should fold 44 but i doubt he would fold 77 for you.

I don't think he has a flush or Jx. I actually meant shove for thin value against his bluffs that can catch it. He only needs to call $169 more to win $1k pot and I'm repping quads or 77.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I want to read the post where you sound like an asshole!!!

Well that post would only have confirmed your suspicions that turn is a mega easy bet.

Originally Posted by Ravageur

it's funny, i'm a huge nit in my posts here but I don't think i'd ever fold this in reality so i need to stop nitting my posts.

haha this is what i was thinking while reading your posts...

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I don't think he has a flush or Jx. I actually meant shove for thin value against his bluffs that can catch it. He only needs to call $169 more to win $1k pot and I'm repping quads or 77.

I don't understand this. Like what?

Like a PP.

yeah I really don't get why you would shove....i mean what is he going to have that plays this way that's a bluff catcher. Do we agree his betsize minimizes the likelihood he has trips here?

Oh and when I said 'we don't think he has a flush' I should have noted that I think the turn is a b/fold, especially deep. Seems like it sets us up to make a big mistake.

what % of the time would u say he plays turn and river like this w/ 66

i would guess maybe 1.4%?

Haha okay it wasn't funny. He had 99 anyways.

99???

cool nice merge bro

If you think this was a merge then do you think he was expecting me to call with worse?

i don't know what that was and i don't think he was doing anything other than clickin buttons

edit: to answer your question.. i dont think hes calling a shove no

Shove the river. 3 jacks has to pay you off considering the pot size.

sigh

....and tstrout wins another thread.

Originally Posted by tstrout

Shove the river. 3 jacks has to pay you off considering the pot size.

please turn your PMs on and then PM me. Thanks.

lololol wow