A brag, i guess... but also a rundown of my latest tournament

Made a deep run in a $20k guarantee on PowerPoker. Out in 11th on the final table bubble. Really big ouch. I saw two all ins at second table... mid stack had AK, short stack had K7... so I pushed from sb with J8s to pick up blinds and antes (5k pot=more than 1/7th of my stack)... didn't think I'd get a caller. Big Blind had me covered by about 12k and woke up with 66, which I'm still even against. K7 pulled it out with 77 on flop and Ak caught his A too to stay in against big stack (didn't see what he had).

Still $360 is my biggest online score to date... for a tournament I got in at last second. Logged in to PowerPoker and saw I had a ticket for some tournament starting in 30 mins. Don't know where it came from or how I ended up with it. I wasn't really in the mood to play anymore after having just a breakeven session of rush poker on FTP, but I wasn't sure the ticket would be good for another time either. Then, I saw the value of the ticket was $162! I can't pass up a chance to play in a tournament like that. So, I bit the bullet and got in.

When I got in, it was a few short of the minimum to start, but it filled up a couple minutes before it started. Late Registration continued until the player pool swelled to 126, with a generous 25 players getting a payout.

I played really well early on, just keeping it very tight, since it was a deep stack starting at 5k in chips with 250 bb stacks. Now, they said it was a slow structure, but that was pretty much bupkus early on. It was the same jacked up structure every PowerPoker/Cake tournament has. I'm sorry, but going from 50 to 100 to 150 to 200 to 250 to 300 does not constitute a slow structure no matter how many blinds you give me to start. Methinks there's a few levels missing in there... I will say though the structure did get better later, which probably contributed quite a lot to my ability to stay patient through the middle stages.

After hovering around 8k or so, I dropped down to about 5k after getting value-towned when a big stack minraised my bb with AA and I had KQo, with a caller inbetween. The flop came Q-high with 2 clubs, and he curiously never raised me when I bet out on the flop, nor did he bet when I checked the turn, which completed the flush draw and paired the board. I had no idea what he had, but I didn't want him to just bluff me off the hand, so I made a smallish bet of 1200 into a 3300 chip pot. I'm pretty proud of that play, since I highly doubt he would have made it less than 1200. However, it is possible he might have not bet at all on a board with so many possibilities. I'm not sure I could have bet him off the hand with a bigger bet, but it's possible.

With blinds at 125/250 and the antes kicking in, I then started my string of double ups with, shall we say, less-than-premium holdings. I open raised to 750 from the button with A7s. The big blind reraised me to 2150, which I then shoved the rest of my 5k. He had plenty of chips to fold, but still decided to call with Q10d. An A on the turn ended any drama about my first double up to 10k.

I was moving my chips around pretty well at this point to keep myself afloat, but was still hovering around that 10k or just below. At 400/800 with a 75 ante, that meant going all in to have any chance at picking up chips. When I found 97h in the hijack, I pushed my 11 bbs in the middle. When the chip leader min raised from the button, I knew I was in trouble. However, I was relieved when he flipped over just AKo. lol Even though he had a heart, at least I was live and not up against a made hand. Of course a 7 came right on the flop with a 4 on the turn (THE JAMES!!!) to move me up to 19k.

Yeah, I can't say I really kept those long. Two hands later, I had A10o on the big blind, and the button shoved for just over 10 bbs. That could have easily been a steal with a weaker ace or two face cards, so I called it. He had 77, and I lost that race. I probably could have folded there, but I can't really say it's that bad of a call, even if the result knocked me back down to 10k.

Even though I was sure my image was shot by now, I just couldn't help myself. A few hands later, I had A3o and shoved my chips in from the hijack once again. The cutoff pretty much snap called me for half of his stack and everyone else folded.

If he was going to have a pair, he had the only one (other than deuces) I'd want him to have as he turns over pocket threes. The flop came down great for me with a pair of Kings and a 5, giving me 3 fives to go with my 3 aces. The A on the turn left him with only the one out to catch up to me, and up to 20k I went again! My opponent would lose the rest of his chips on the next hand with AJs against QQ, sealed by a Q on the flop.

The money bubble was fast approaching as the blinds went up to 500/1000 with a 100 ante.

As tight as I was playing and wanting so badly to cash, I still couldn't help but fast-play a couple of cowboys from the small blind even though the big stack at the table raised from the cutoff. I popped him up 3x his raise, and he folded. I picked up a nice 7100 chip pot for my efforts, while wondering if I could have extracted a little more value from my 17 bb stack.

With the bubble burst a few hands later, the push to solidify my stack into a final table possibility began. Picking up JJ from the big blind with no small blind didn't hurt... and a button 3x raise from the preceding blind stealer was superb medicine. I popped him another 3x up to 9k, which he then shoved over for 34k. With half of my stack already in, it was an easy call, and a delight when he turned over AJo. The board came out no sweat, and a 42k pot came my way.

Play really slowed down after that as there were mostly big stacks on my table and small stacks on our adjacent table. I think I played two hands until my eventual bust hand. I take absolutely no solace in the fact that my conqueror ended up winning the whole shebang. That's just not how I roll.

I am however pleased to continue my success and know if I keep getting this far, my big score will come.

I saw two all ins at second table... mid stack had AK, short stack had K7... so I pushed from sb with J8s to pick up blinds and antes (5k pot=more than 1/7th of my stack)... didn't think I'd get a caller. Big Blind had me covered by about 12k and woke up with 66, which I'm still even against. K7 pulled it out with 77 on flop and Ak caught his A too to stay in against big stack (didn't see what he had).

Not really sure if you're talking about two different hands or w/e, no info on positions either except that one... If you pushed J8o from SB with someone already in the pot other than BB that's horrible, btw.

Did you get all in against AK and K7? Was that the J8 hand? The way you described it was kind of confusing. Anyhow...

With your 360 you should probably just use it as a low/micro-stakes bankroll -- def don't make the mistake of thinking you can own up larger buy-in tournaments right off the bat. Cash out a bit to buy Kill Everyone imo, couldn't hurt.

g/l in future

Originally Posted by Penneywize

Not really sure if you're talking about two different hands or w/e, no info on positions either except that one... If you pushed J8o from SB with someone already in the pot other than BB that's horrible, btw.

Did you get all in against AK and K7? Was that the J8 hand? The way you described it was kind of confusing. Anyhow...

With your 360 you should probably just use it as a low/micro-stakes bankroll -- def don't make the mistake of thinking you can own up larger buy-in tournaments right off the bat. Cash out a bit to buy Kill Everyone imo, couldn't hurt.

g/l in future

"Made a deep run in a $20k guarantee on PowerPoker. Out in 11th on the final table bubble. Really big ouch. I saw two all ins at second table... mid stack had AK, short stack had K7... so I pushed from sb with J8s to pick up blinds and antes (5k pot=more than 1/7th of my stack)... didn't think I'd get a caller. Big Blind had me covered by about 12k and woke up with 66, which I'm still even against. K7 pulled it out with 77 on flop and Ak caught his A too to stay in against big stack (didn't see what he had)."

Assuming I'm on the first table should really be an ldo, imo. They were two concurrent hands, and I wouldn't have pushed with the J8s without seeing the action on the other table. I should have timed out and waited for the other table to finish, but I thought that might look too obvious that I didn't want a call.

I'm trying to internally debate whether it was worth the 14% increase in my chip stack which put a mininum $90 increase in my winnings at risk. In hindsight, I'm thinking no... but when I'm in the thick of the battle, I'm usually going after every chip I can, no matter what my stack looks like. That style has been profitable for me, but it's very possible I could have profited more if I had curbed that urge a little bit.

Ok, pretty much thought you meant second to last table.

Whether pushing J8o was good or not depends on a lot of things

I stoved up a few potential "light" calling ranges:

Here's your equity against 30% of hands:

Code:

   7,479,343,872  games     9.329 secs   801,730,504  games/sec

Board: 
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     34.978%      33.80%     01.17%         2507431323      87128301.00   { J8o }
Hand 1:     65.022%      63.85%     01.17%         4736013003      87128301.00   { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }


---

Against 40%:

Code:

   9,883,418,688  games    12.201 secs   810,049,888  games/sec

Board: 
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     37.035%      35.24%     01.80%         3482638884     177692646.00   { J8o }
Hand 1:     62.965%      61.17%     01.80%         6045394512     177692646.00   { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }

So, quick calculations (leaving ICM out of it -- which is a huge factor obv -- for the moment):

5k in pot, you push (estimated, since you said it was > than 1/7th your stack)
32.5k is your stack

3 potential outcomes-

1) Villain folds and you win 5k
2) Villain calls and you win 37.5k
3) Villain calls and you lose 32.5k

If we assume Villain has a random hand, and will call with (for the sake of simplicity) 33% of hands:

(0.666 * 5k)

Plus our equity versus his ~33% range (say 35%) multiplied by potential amount won

(0.35 * 37.5k)

Minus (1 - Our equity) multiplied by amount we stand to lose

(0.65 * 32.5)

= (0.666 * 5k) + (0.35 * 37.5k) - (0.65 * 32.5k)
= -4670

So it is a bad decision, it appears, if our villain is calling with 33% of hands.

With ICM considerations, this probably looks a lot worse.

Someone please correct if fucked up the EV calc which I have a feeling I did....

Does his stack size factor in how often he'll call? Since he would have only had 12k left afterwards. I'm assuming that cuts out quite a few hands he might call me with.

You also made it J8o when it was J8s

Stack size is def one of the factors villain should be taking into consideration in deciding whether to call - that is, assuming he has at least a rudimentary understanding of the ICM considerations that apply here

Playing with the numbers above, we can probably show that if villain is only calling with some x (small) percentage of hands, a shove with ATC may be profitable. However, given that there are several shorter stacks left in the tournament - and that we can theoretically fold our way up four or five pay grades - we are likely better off waiting for a better spot.

If you were the short stack, this wouldn't be all that bad; you simply have to take more risks in such a situation. Of course, even then, we want to have some important reads on villain, notably his calling range (have you seen him call all-ins recently? what is his VPIP/PFR, or opening range? does he often flat preflop raises, or 3-bet in the blinds against steals?) to better gauge the quality of our potential play.

Also - if we're a short stack and far from the money, again -- absent any real reads -- this is probably a much better play, since players are very often playing much tighter than optimal in these situations.

I re-ran the EV calculations with J8s, and our equity bumps up a bit, being about 38% against a 33% calling range. This still leaves us slightly negative, or marginally positive, but nevertheless outweighed by the ICM implications described above.

Anybody know why it gives me some error about "prefetching" when I try to look at this post in Chrome?