AQs facing a reshove

This is at the FT of a small mtt and only the final 9 got paid (payouts are extremely top heavy). No real reads on villain, but he has been fairly quiet for the first 20-30 hands of ft (as have I). UTG has been limping tons of pots so I am not worried about him. Blinds actually go up to 400/800 while I am mulling over my decision.

Full Tilt Poker Game #7275096452: $10 + $1 Tournament (55199676), Table 3 - 300/600 Ante 75 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:41:34 ET - 2008/07/18
Seat 1: packers51089 (7,999)
Seat 2: MotherHumper (36,831)
Seat 3: Hero (9,672)
Seat 7: JAMAN1986 (19,912)
Seat 8: TimChi (29,520)
Seat 9: rypav79 (26,566)
packers51089 antes 75
MotherHumper antes 75
Hero antes 75
JAMAN1986 antes 75
TimChi antes 75
rypav79 antes 75
rypav79 posts the small blind of 300
packers51089 posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qd Ad]
MotherHumper calls 600
Hero raises to 2,100
JAMAN1986 raises to 19,837, and is all in
TimChi folds
rypav79 folds
packers51089 folds
MotherHumper folds
Hero ??

If I fold and let the blinds pass me I will have about 6k which is not horrid, but it ain't great either. I am getting just over 2:1 and according to pokerstove I am priced in even against very tight ranges (by a hair):

Hand 0: 65.638% 64.70% 00.94% 39881751 579211.50 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 34.362% 33.42% 00.94% 20602770 579211.50 { AdQd }

p.s. should I be doing ICM calc for this situation rather than the above calc?

I'd raise a bit more so you can shove the flop, here if just the limper calls you are going to be in a weird spot if you miss the flop.

you said it yourself, you have the price and he may have a lot wider range than you gave him. I can't believe ICM will say different since you're so short compared to every one else except the one other shorty. Plus ICM can't account for your edge and the additional options you'll have after you double.

How are u getting over 2:1?

You have to call 7500 in a pot that has like 13,500, you don't get to win his extra chips if you call.

It's still close tho, you only need like 36% for this to be neutral cEV. If your range on your opp is really that tight it's a fold. Given that it's 6 handed, and your raise was sorta small, his range could be wider. I think at a minimum you can include AQ in his range, which I am guessing would make this a call.

Don't fold AQs for 15 BB at a 6-handed table unless there's been a raise and a reraise before the action gets to you, and sometimes even then I wouldn't fold.

Originally Posted by chardrian

How are u getting over 2:1?

Well played sir, I am only getting 1.8:1. I think I counted my 2,100 raise twice somehow

Originally Posted by chardrian

I think at a minimum you can include AQ in his range, which I am guessing would make this a call.

This is true, same if we include 99 instead. Thanks for the input.

There are 4300 in the pot. Hero has 7600 left.
I don't know what I would do here... just thought I'd add to the confusion.

wat

Did I miscount that too... what the hell, well let me give it another try...

Pot is 4275
Hero has 7572

before the raise, naturally. He has to pay 7600 to win 12000.
So about 1.5:1

But really, you get your money back too, so you get like 2.5 to 1. Maybe that's the reason I call so much. I always get at least 2:1

I really should go sleep now.