AQo flops inside SFD

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A.
4 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8, T, J (4 players)
SB checks, Hero...

It was a lively table. No real reads, just some numbers. SB was 68/18.2/1.86. MP2 was 37.5/8.3/4.33. Button was 90/12.5/1.67. All three went to SD about 33%.

I don't know how to judge this hand. I've got a draw to the 3rd-nut flush and a gutshot straight flush draw...and an overcard. Do I want the others in or out? My inclination is to keep them in and to think they're worried by the 3-suited board...and their high VP$IP numbers don't necessarily show they'll stick around postflop. (Button will!) OTOH a bet for value can't be far wrong.

This is why i don't raise more than two limpers with offsuit big cards preflop. If you just check your hand is nicely disguised and you can get paid off if you flop top pair, and if you whiff the flop you can get away cheaply. Try it, you'll like it.

As it is, it's pretty likely you're behind at this point but you have a decent draw. There's next to zero chance of getting everyone to fold with a bet, and MP2 is on your left and likes to play raise or fold judging by his AF. I'd probably check and call a single bet - if it gets bet and raised behind me I'd probably fold, thinking I could be up against the best hand and the best draw with maybe 3 outs and not knowing whether it's the two A or two Q outs that are good along with the 9c.

I dont think the PFR is that bad, considering is .10/.20 your hand has to be way ahead of eveyrone else's and just checking is pretty passive. You more than likely have an equity edge right from the start.

I agree c/c one bet for sure, you have the kings to the nut straight (and the Kc gives u the second nut flush), and 9's to a straight (9c giving you a straight flush) and any club to the 3nd nut flush.Definately discount your overcard outs as they make the board hella drawy.

Originally Posted by snowboard_31

I dont think the PFR is that bad, considering is .10/.20 your hand has to be way ahead of eveyrone else's and just checking is pretty passive. You more than likely have an equity edge right from the start.

Point is not whether you're ahead preflop. Point is that you almost always need to improve to win vs. 3 opponents, and if you do you're less likely to get paid off. Let them think you have 8x when you bet the Q87 flop and take their money. If the flop comes K72 you'll be in a big bind as preflop aggressor and scratching your head.

Fnord and I have explicated this principle in previous posts. I just can't find them, have a look...Sklansky says pretty much the same thing though.

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

Point is not whether you're ahead preflop. Point is that you almost always need to improve to win vs. 3 opponents, and if you do you're less likely to get paid off. ... Fnord and I have explicated this principle in previous posts. I just can't find them, have a look...Sklansky says pretty much the same thing though.

My first thought is "I have an equity edge, try to push some of them out to give me a better chance to win." Second thought is "they're already in for one bet, none of them will fold to a PFR." Prior to the first thought is "AQo...rustle, rustle...BB, unraised pot, Raise." Not too good to raise prior to thinking.

[Now if I improve to TP I think I want to force them out before they out-draw me.]

Anyway, I hadn't seen your posts or Fnord's about this principle. What sort of feedback have you gotten?

I'm torn with what to do on the BB with bit offsuit broadway cards as well, especially unraised.

Looking back at my BB hands in Pokertracker, I've found hands like AQo and AJo to be more profitable when I check and disguise them than when I raise. It creates room for a checkraise if you hit, and lets me get away easily if it misses altogether. Maybe it's passive, but every other street you are in early position but the preflop raiser, which can be uncomfortable if you miss, and if you hit it is fairly obvious and thus not particularly profitable unless someone clings to (and misses) a draw.

The exception is when the only preflop limpers are button and SB - in which case a raise is in order. Open limping on the button is so often a sign of weak cards (weakness in general) that you have a strong chance of taking the pot on the flop by betting out, regardless of what hits.

Once more for the unitiated...big offsuit cards with 3 or more limpers in early position

Arguments for raising:
1) preflop equity advantage

Arguments for calling/checking:
1) disguises your hand, meaning you're more likely to get paid off if you hit
2) your oop
3) keeps pot small, making it unprofitable for weak draws
4) you'll miss the flop more often than not, and can get away cheaply if you choose
5) allows you lead out or c/r big hands depending on board and opponents

e.g.,

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, Q.
UTG calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) J, A, 3 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 2 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, Button calls, SB folds.

River: (7 BB) 4 (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, Button calls.

Final Pot: 9 BB

button showed down J9. I'm pretty sure i got a lot more action by just checking preflop.

I notice that in the ITH charts AQo in the BB is "raise 1 or 2 limpers" so that is in accord with DD's analysis.

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A.
4 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8, T, J (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (4 BB) Q (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, Button folds, SB folds, Hero...

I have a bad feeling about this. Fold now or call & c/c?

Call and pray for an ace of clubs, maybe an offsuit K. He has a 9 here very often.

I would call here and c/f the river if you don't improve. If a club comes b/f.

Better line might be to c/c the turn (fold to two bets) and play the river the same way, or b/f the river if it's checked around on the turn.