I just don't get it

Ok, been on a bit of a downswing the last few days of the month at 1/2 and decided to look at my stats for all hands from 0.50/1 and 1/2 and noticed something really strange and not sure how to explain it so thought I'd put some data up here and see if anyone else can.

I am going to have to drop back to 0.50/1 though I think.











Looking at the graphs, the heater I went on from ~9300 hands to ~13k will have something to do with it but even after that my graph is steadily rising with nowhere near as many big swings so there is something happening that I can't explain from my stats and any opinions are most welcome

sample size is pretty small still.

Psychologically, I recommend playing at .5/1 mostly and table selecting 1/2 a bit harder.

Stats-wise, you are extremely tight, and not aggro enough. Playing that few hands your PFR and VPIP should be closer and your AF a bit higher
You should try isolation/aggressiion in position more.

You should also look into your blind defense play.

Your wtsd should be higher if you mostly play HU pots, but the way i see it you are probably playing a lot of multiway pots.

You dont steal enough. Att2st should hover around 30-50 depending on different factors (your style, the blinds, your image).

i wont be that big of a help, but i cant help but notice how high your W$SD numbers are. 58% is way up there, especially for limit games. i would think that means you may be leaving a lot of marginal hands too early and missing some value.....basically, only taking the "sure thing." i think low 50's is what most players strive for. but, what the hell do i know. i like the 5/100 at .50/1.

as far as .50/1, i think a more passive style works very well with the games i see at stars. they are more than happy to spew off money. but, that also leads to a ton of multiway pots, and i dont like those the majority of the time.

looking at the position stats, i dont think your vpip/pfr number is that bad, except for in the blinds. and, i dont know if that is even bad. we complete a lot in multiway pots from the sb and we dont raise much from the bb in multiway pots. but, looking at the other four spots, you are pretty close to 1:1......at 1/2. not at 50/1.

that may lead to a lot of your roller coaster. you are raising what looks like twice the hands. therefore, the pots are always bigger from the opening gate.

i would like to see steal #'s, too. but, its hard to see much with stats in LHE, imo, when so much of what we do is post flop.

I am not a solid winner at 1/2. In fact, so far I am completely unsure as to weather or not I can beat 1/2 sustainably (.2 BB/100 ths far). So DO NOT believe anything I say, rather merely consider it as a possibility.

It appears you do not isolate Pre-flop limpers enough w/ hands that have good equity against their range (your VPIP, while fairly tight for 6max, should be ok. but you need to raise more often pre-flop) You also seem to get to showdown too rarely for 6max play. I think you do have to be capable of showing down A (w/ a Q/J) high against certain Laggy opponents at this level.

It also looks as though you could steal more often vs. tight blinds (but you may not get tight blinds very often if you table select for loose games).

Basically, play (i.e. raise) more pots in position vs loose players (i.e. limpers), even with what you think may be a somewhat marginal hand (like say KTs vs a 40/10/.72 limper).

no offense, guys. but, look at the 1/2 vpip/pfr ratios in the position stats.

i see: 12/10, 14/12, 18/14, and 22/17 outside the blinds. he's raising there enough. maybe he could open up a bit more to where the button is closer to 30/20, but thats a different story. thats not the problem with the graphs.

blind play is killing him. and, the majority lies post flop, imo.

AND, most importantly, it could be variance. i dont suspect anyone that can post a 5/100 over a decent sample would suddenly get killed only one level higher. the answer lies somewhere in between those two winrates, imo. i, myself, have had the same issue with 25/50c and 50/1 in 2009. that is why you see more 25/50c hands being posted by me. i am a little gunshy of a pussy level right now. but, will take some shots again soon.

but, there is still, hopefully, a lot of variance in there, some lack of confidence, some bad play, and lack of the proper adjustment. all those things "should" sort themselves out. we'll see.

man, those position stats are UBERTIGHT!

here's mine:
btn: 32/29
CO: 25/23
HJ: 20/18
UTG: 15/14

asd, where are your blind numbers? i bet your ratio is closer to 2:1 there, too.

i run: 12/11.9, 18/16.5, 19/16, 23/18 from the blinds, 31/15 sb and 21/11 bb. my blinds are -.03 and -.04 bb/hand respectively....i dont think thats bad.

and, i am UBERTIGHT. 22/15 overall. but, i suck post flop.

knyter, as a result of my nittyness, i am over 40% WSF and my SD number is 56%....i didnt think the SD number was that high. what does that scream at me? loosen up in lp even MORE! i am missing even more value from late position.

bb 35/12
sb 40/22

forget mine, those are for all levels, FR, 6max, HU...

i'll post 6max only later

my 1/2 stats:

btn: 34.08/32.21 wtsd 44.25 w$sd 51.87
co: 26.37/25.42 wtsd 46.82 w$sd 55.03
hj: 20.18/19.70 wtsd 49.01 w$sd 55.21
utg: 15.93/15.80 wtsd 48.97 w$sd 56.11
bb: 36.58/14.00 wtsd 34.43 w$sd 52.05
sb: 43.12/23.05 wtsd 37.67 w$sd 52.26

over 80k hands:
bb/100 3.35
VP 30.93
PFR 22.28
AF 2.31
att2st: 43.30
fold bb2st: 39.21
fold sb2st: 82.94

My 6-max AF is over 3. I out-aggro Asd?

I don't actually want it that high, mind you. It was survivable at 0.50/1 but when I moved up to 1/2, the spew killed me. I'm working on toning it down.

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

My 6-max AF is over 3. I out-aggro Asd?

I don't actually want it that high, mind you. It was survivable at 0.50/1 but when I moved up to 1/2, the spew killed me. I'm working on toning it down.

i dont think its a question of the nr in itself. As long as you pick your spots, aggression is good.

Yes, i am not the most aggressive! YEEEEEHA!

Originally Posted by asdpikas

I dont think its a question of the nr in itself. As long as you pick your spots, aggression is good.

Oh, for sure. I'm clearly not picking my spots as well as I know I can, however. My opp fold to c-bet has got to be close to 0% as a result...I'm too easy to read!

No problem though. I can adjust.

Thanks for the feedback guys.

I think I'm going to do a few things that will hopefully help
* Go back to 0.5/1 to clear the next 4500vpp I need for the $250 bonus which will cover 1/2 losses
* Try to open my game up a little more from later position
* Stop calling so many hands out of the blinds that I will have to c/f on the flop most times (I'm looking at you (un)suited connectors)
* Get more aggressive with raising in position after limpers with hands like Axs, KQ-JT, etc
* See more showdowns where I'm not being told I'm beat

I think that trying to meet these objectives while clearing 4500VPP (I'm lucky to do 2k a month) will give me some more solid feedback on what my true winrate is and if I am actually able to beat the game.

The other objective I will be trying to do is
* Don't play LHE on the same day I play NL or PLO

Think playing the different games on the same day at the moment is really screwing with me at times given I'll go straight from ~1k hands of one format to ~1k hands of the other without a reasonable break in between.

Originally Posted by Knytestorme

Thanks for the feedback guys.

I think I'm going to do a few things that will hopefully help
* Go back to 0.5/1 to clear the next 4500vpp I need for the $250 bonus which will cover 1/2 losses
* Try to open my game up a little more from later position
* Stop calling so many hands out of the blinds that I will have to c/f on the flop most times (I'm looking at you (un)suited connectors)
* Get more aggressive with raising in position after limpers with hands like Axs, KQ-JT, etc
* See more showdowns where I'm not being told I'm beat

I think that trying to meet these objectives while clearing 4500VPP (I'm lucky to do 2k a month) will give me some more solid feedback on what my true winrate is and if I am actually able to beat the game.

The other objective I will be trying to do is
* Don't play LHE on the same day I play NL or PLO

Think playing the different games on the same day at the moment is really screwing with me at times given I'll go straight from ~1k hands of one format to ~1k hands of the other without a reasonable break in between.

That's good. Don't forget samples are still small, so dont think too much of the bad 1/2 results just yet.