AQs TPTK head down on draw-rich board?

[Hermann the Lombard]

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q.
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 7, Q, 8 (5 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Button calls.

Turn: (6 BB) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (6 BB) 9 (2 players)
Hero...

Button has been 47/0/0.5 in a small sample, no relevant notes.

Once that diamond King falls, should I just keep my head down? Even check/call seems optimistic on the river.

[pokerfanatic]

i'm pretty much done with the hand once the Kd hits, i might consider calling against a select few opponents that will bet a pair because they know you would have bet a flush already. but in general i think c/f isn't too bad.

[arborman]

If he had a flush he'd have bet the turn, unless he is ultra passive. If he is tricky he might be trying to induce a bluff on the river, but he is probably not that tricky. And if he had a King he would have bet the turn as well. I think he's got a middle pair and no flush, but is hoping you will let him showdown free.

It's a big enough pot to be worth a river bet/fold, IMO. He could easily have seen your turn check as a failed checkraise, but a river check is an invitation to bluff into you.

This hand is close to a 'Clarkmeister' theorem hand, in that you probably have the strongest non-flush hand - a value bluff. You lose this hand often, but get a fold or a win often enough to make a bet fold line worthwhile on the river - especially since he checked behind on the turn, which has me leaning to bet call..

[pokerfanatic]

the guy is super passive 0.5 TAF... basically he's not betting anything unless it's the A, Q, maybe J maybe T but below that he will check behind and call a river bet closing the action... 56 calls the river, JT as well any diamond i don't see any reason to want to bet this river...

now as for calling a bet what on earth would a 0.5 TAF bet the river with you have beat? NOTHING? easy c/f IMO...

[arborman]

the guy is super passive 0.5 TAF... basically he's not betting anything unless it's the A, Q, maybe J maybe T but below that he will check behind and call a river bet closing the action... 56 calls the river, JT as well any diamond i don't see any reason to want to bet this river...

now as for calling a bet what on earth would a 0.5 TAF bet the river with you have beat? NOTHING? easy c/f IMO...

Good point.

[DrivingDog]

Raise preflop with two big suited cards please.

against passive, just check and try to get to a cheap showdown. Fold to a bet - he's not betting anything that doesn't have you beat.

[pokerfanatic]

Raise preflop with two big suited cards please.

against passive, just check and try to get to a cheap showdown. Fold to a bet - he's not betting anything that doesn't have you beat.

he did raise it pf?

Preflop: Hero is SB with A , Q .
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.

[DrivingDog]

he did raise it pf?

ah i missed that - good man HTL.

[Lance]

I would bet on the river if I get reraised I'll just fold.
ur probably ahead unless he has the flush.

Anyway check/call the river isnt so bad as well

[Hermann the Lombard]

he did raise it pf?

ah i missed that - good man HTL.