10 PLO, unimproved AAxx postflop vs aggrodonk

Over a sample of 300 hands or so, villain (UTG) is running 22/4 with an AF of 4; has a fold to flop cbet of ~71% (5 of 7), a high turn-betting percentage, and a low river-betting percentage. Though, I caution these stats are not situation-specific.

Thoughts: Preflop seems standard, I don't think I raised the max here though and I probably should have.

Flop seems standard, I sort of give up the lead on the turn and decide to call one off.

The value portion of UTG's range on the turn is largely made straights (typically 56xx, since I'm blocking aces quite a bit here) and low sets. The thing is, given their aggressive postflop play it seems quite probable that UTG will sometimes float against cbets on uncoordinated flops and bet turn when checked to. It probably isn't likely that they'd bet their medium-strength holdings here like K3xx or K2xx, so we're largely left with a polarized betting range.

Stop me if any of you think I'm giving this guy way too much credit i.e. if you think he's just playing his own cards here and not thinking too much about what I have.

On the river, I improve to top two pair. I'm not sure how much UTG's range changes once he bets, though he did have a rather low river betting percentage going into this hand, whatever that's worth. Any argument for snapping off here?

$0.05/$0.10 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($10.72) 107bb
UTG+1 ($8.07) 81bb
CO ($49.49) 495bb
BTN ($12.14) 121bb
SB ($22.89) 229bb
Hero (BB) ($10) 100bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is BB
UTG calls $0.10, 4 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, UTG calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, UTG calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.45, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1, Hero calls $1

River: ($3.45, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2, $2 to Hero ($8.3)?

super annoying spot, I don't think call is bad, but probably fold is better. 22/4 UTG just doesn't have enough floats/worse two pairs in him.

I'm rusty, but 22% is fairly tight, so he should have a reasonable hand right? Is villain positionally aware at all, or a flat 22%?

If he's positionally aware I'd the polarized range makes sense. If he's not then he might be set hunting any pp not realizing how bad that is.

Are you c/c turn to bluff catch? I would probably just bet $1 on the turn and fold to a raise, expecting him to check back the river if we don't want to bet again.

/might not know what I'm talking about

Thanks for the input guys.

@Swiggidy, I'd have to check again, but I do believe his stats were tending to show positional awareness, though only 300 hands.

I think when I c/c turn I'm doing so as not to be uber exploitable, cbetting a weakish hand and giving up on all turns where I don't improve. In retrospect I suppose there is an argument for continuing aggression on turn but it's mostly as a bluff and getting villain to give up their equity etc.

I've heard more advanced players say stuff like "in this spot I'd c/call 50% and c/fold 50%". I don't mean to assign some kind of metagame thought process to what was going on OTT but I believe it'd be good to c/c here sometimes and c/f here sometimes.

The thing is each of b/f, c/c and c/f are kind of close decisions in terms of equity. At least as far as I can tell, anyway.

I folded river fwiw, I had been noticing a trend in my play where I call down too lightly and not often being right; this may have factored into my decision.

A call is not bad .. i would call in this spot he probably missed his draw.

What draw could he have missed? It's a rainbow K24 board, one of the driest imaginable.

Yeah whatever draws were there got there on the turn anyway. Unless you mean some weird weakish draw like 45xx, that kind of BS. It's not impossible but I feel like his range looks very made-hand-y by the time he bets river, esp given sizing.

I think you call in this spot but he does play kind of tight so he might have a straight.