I don't know about the hyperbole, but I agree it's redic.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
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I don't know about the hyperbole, but I agree it's redic.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Jesus Christ, I think Wuf is the voice of reason in this village.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
How can baudib and I have such a contrasting reaction to wuf's post?
Because Daven is a dead wolf walking. Only dumb wolves would cinch MMM. Besides, they may think he's the cursedQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
This sort of thing happens a lot. Wolves tend to think better than "omg if I don't bold this guy then a wolf will die". Wolves know better than to so obviously put themselves in those spots that catch them later
"then spend 1 hour in d2 piling on Dave"
This is the part I find redic.
I could go for a BID lynch. He's been underwhelming to say the least.
The thing that really bothers me is the number of people who say they think MMM is probably a villager, and there are wolfier players around, but let's lynch MMM anyway.
Ong's point about not trusting the village to handle MMM is valid though.
Maybe. This is d2 discussion. What we don't do is lynch mojo and blindly line up daven without even stopping to consider the flip. You're telling me a 1hr snaplynhc on d2 is pro village? You're talking out of your arse. One minute you say to me that you've only skimmed the thread, then you're telling me nothing has changed for me to reassess daven. The only reason I think daven is a wolf is because he seems to be randomly waving his finger at me. His attack on me feels so fucking fake. But that's gut. Maybe I'm misreading him. idk. If mojo flips villager then I'm certainly going to reconsider daven, because daven is waaaay too strong to just snap lynch based on gut. And might I remind you it's still d1. Your "dead wolf walking" read on daven is gut. Or bullshit. One of those.Quote:
Because Daven is a dead wolf walking. Only dumb wolves would cinch MMM. Besides, they may think he's the cursed
You're presenting bad villager strategy as pro-village. I think wuf finally got wolf.
It's actually the first time this game that Wuf has posted any sort of meaningful game-related content, so that was refreshing to see.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I really feel like white-knighting MMM but I'm resigned to the fact that the village needs him resolved. Dhuber's sanity seems to rest upon MMM getting deaded.
Vote Count 1.5
MMM - 6 (wuf, rong, dhuber, aubrey, BID, daven)
daven - 6 (baudib, keybored, Luco, MMM, bigred, monstrman)
keybored - 1 (keith)
monstrman - 1 (gabe)
wuf - 1 (Ong)
No vote - (JKDS)
9 votes to lynch!
MMM leads on the tiebreak due to reaching 6 votes first today
That is a fair point, Ong. I'm not for turbo lynching anyone on D2 anymore than I am for runaway wagons on D1. But mostly I'm in agreement with Wuf that Daven fully outed himself.
Just over 4 hours remain.
I don't think the mojo situation does need to be resolved. I did, but I don't now. I think when we can talk about optimal cursed stratgey a little more openly, people will realise that mojo is unlikely to be cursed.
How did daven fully out himself? Did I miss something?
I have enough anti-wuf sentiment from earlier this game to put him at BEST a meh by end of day.
I am interested in what he's saying, but he's tainted himself too much thus far for me to be sheeping him TODAY.
wuf is a wolf if mojo and daven are both villagers, that I'm 95% sure about.
Hmmm, I actually feel that MMM has decent Cursed equity, but this is how I feel about Daven talking about you being Cursed. I think you'd take a different line but it's not a good idea to talk about why IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
It'd be nice if we can get the Cursed out of the way first but it'll probably take a miracle for that to happen if MMM isn't Cursed.
Keith...We're distracting the village and with only a few hours left, the two camps are pretty much solid. Let's put aside our disagreements until we gain more info on today/tonight action. Then we can reassess each other's actions from today.
MMM the thing that has me convinced you're a villager is that you think your death will somehow be good for the village. This is actually quite similar to how I played my first villager game here. I wanted to create a lot of controversy, try to soul read the whole wolf team on D1, and said, Hey, I must be pissing the wolves off. Look at how many votes I got! You can find them all after I die.
and guess what, it was a disaster. None of the wolves ended up voting for me, and all I did was create a huge distraction.
If you're a villager, your death doesn't help the village. If you're a villager, you need to fight till your dying breath and not just accept the lynch.
I've posted my best analysis.
I've invested time outside of game to help people get a base line on aubrey who hasn't played with this group recently.
I've got my vote on the person I find most wolfy.
I've done my best to clear the people who say things that feel like they read my mind. That's villager sign.
What more you want a monkey to do?
daven put mojo on L-1 at around 8am, I rescinded to put him back to L-2 at around 5pm, that's 9 hours that his neck was on the block for with no hammer. The fact it was daven who put him at L-1 makes it less of a solid read, it's ballsy for the last two wolves to both be wolves. But still, if mojo is village and daven wolf, then why wouldn't they just seal the mojo lynch and move on? I managed to talk my way out of lynch so much last game that really I think everyone should realise that all you need is a viable explanation, and doubt does the rest. If I were a wolf with daven and had the hammer vote, I'd probably be looking for a way to justify a mojo vote, and imo it would have been easy based on points that I had already made. A wolf can easily jump on mojo to finish him and point to my comments.
If daven and mojo are both wolves, well mojo would have been thrown under the bus by now for sure.
It possible the wolves don't want to finish him because he's cursed, but who do the wolves prefer to lose? The person who *might* be cursed, or a definite wolf? Again they would seek to finish mojo.
I can't see any reason why mojo hasn't been finished by the wolves, except either a) mojo is a wolf and daven villager, or b) both mojo and daven are villagers, and the wolves are holding off in the hope that daven gets killed instead of mojo.
Either way, wuf wanting to snaplynch daven d2 whatever happens is not what a thinking villager should be suggesting.
^^ I don't necessarily agree with anything, but again there's a post that Wolf Ong probably doesn't make.
Ong, I knew if you were a villager I could drag the WIM out of you. Like I do with your mom.
I almost wanna say at this point that MMM has been the MOST villagery person ITG. And it's in sharp contrast to what Daven's done. I think a wolf trying to take out Cursed would be a decent strategy for villager cred, and it seems like that's all he is interested in doing.
Also, I missed it when I first woke up but I like how Rong wants to lynch me for doing what half the village is doing: Deciding that Daven is infinitely more wolfy than MMM, but remaining open to the idea that MMM could be a non-villager.
Maybe it's because I was the one who pointed out his inconsistent progression on Daven/MMM.
Urgghj no no no no no
My progression was entirely consistent.
Your statement, specifically, that mmm will always get lynched before end game is what sets you apart and makes your stance anti village.
why, I've shown clearly that there are contradictions between what you say and what you did, i questioned you about them and you just want to sweep it under the carpet. Look what happened last game , i nailed 3 wolves d1 and the village ignored the people i targetted . Are you hoping for the same thing to happen again so that you can eat me again tonight. How about you just answer the points i have made. There still plenty of time for a wagon to form on you if you refuse to answer. perhaps that would persuade you to answer the points i made.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
There's a thrid possibility -
c) daven was the third wolf to join the mojo wagon, meaning there're relying on a villager to finish it.
I don't think that's particularly outrageous. It's a matter of time before we get a wolf team with the confidence to blatantly be on the same wagon. But it's still probably in the "flopping a boat" range of improbabilities.
Votes on me:Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrman
aubrey, BID, daven, dhubs, rong, wuf
Votes I understand:
daven, dhubs, wuf
Votes I don't understand:
aubrey, BID, rong
***
#194
(note slight edit for clarity ; "nd = me")Quote:
Originally Posted by rong
***
#227
Aubrey wags a finger at rong for "Jumped on MMM 'cause MMM made himself super easy target."
#241
#242Quote:
Originally Posted by aubreymcfate
BID is sheeping aubreywolf, who's snuggling rong?Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Mmm if you've read any of my discussions with baudib today my reasons for lynching you should be loud and clear.
day 1 and we're on page 7. god damn.he cant help the village because no one is going to listen to him. and he has to be a better wolf probability than a random personQuote:
Originally Posted by Luco
im giving 0 credence to baudibQuote:
Originally Posted by Luco
yes!! its like the whole village wants to give him a pass because its his first game, and the unusual stuff he does gets swept aside. "oh hes new, so lets just cross our fingers and hope we arent getting burned!"Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
im so glad you brought this up because ive been saving this argument for when it was time to unload on monstrman:Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
does everyone see the dissonance here? i think its clear. he tells me what i said about him was "very bad reasoning." then later in the same post, he explains the exact reasoning I was using, except its applied to himself. the 2nd bold part is exactly how i think about the situation, but earlier in his post he said this was "very bad reasoning" !!! its like in his head he was trying his hardest to defend the first attack on him because hes a wolf (or special?), but the other half of his brain was trying to look like a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrman
Just glanced through the list of daven's posts and he does look out of character spazzy. But why haven't the wolves killed mojo if daven is a wolf? I suppose the most compelling reason is because there's a seer. Still, wolves normally have to take risks to get the mislynches they need. daven was very much in the danger zone, and still is. For daven to be a wolf, they're complacent. I'm certain they're not both wolves because mojo would've been bussed. While I'm not liking daven's content, I'm finding it very difficult to believe that the wolves sense no urgency with a wolf being so close behind mojo. The chance was there to kill mojo, and it didn't happen. I think that's because the wolves were hoping daven would get it instead.
I can see what you're getting at gabe. I'm not sure I agree, but I like your tone.
oh yeah it's consistent. "I think Daven is a wolf but I'll listen to him and lynch the guy I think is a villager."Quote:
Originally Posted by rong
There can't be anything more anti-village than that.
Ong, I should have said I dont agree with "everything" you said, not "anything."
I can see what you're getting at but I'm not a wagon-analysis guy. I especially am not giving credence to wagon analysis before flips even happen.
A) only if there is no preferred optionQuote:
Originally Posted by rong
B) Am I your only concern among the player pool for late game?
You don't think I've earned enough V-points for at least this day, considering you personally believe I'm V?Quote:
Originally Posted by rong
Gabe, I don't know why you would give me 0 credence, I've played more games with Monstr than anyone in WW.
If anything, making contradictions is a huge villager tell for Monstr, because he flops around and changes his mind literally within the same sentence. He's super spazzy.
I wouldn't say he's never a wolf here, I didn't love his start, but the recent posts he made have me feeling pretty comfortable with him. I always tinfoil over him early on and then he makes himself pretty crystal clear.
I feel really confident that he wouldn't fool me, I'd describe his villager tone as being as tone pure (once you get used to him) as Rilla.
oh and in b4 I'm defending a wolf.
I agree with this read. If daven flips V, and then I flip V on D2, wuf is the one who argued against a 3rd wagon here.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
In b4 "there's no time!" Cause there's still just over 2 hours to go.
MMM, this almost reads like you're talking about yourself in a theoretical universe where you might be a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
http://cannabisproject360.com/wp-con...-high-thcf.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
The hypothetical is the "I get lynched on D2" part.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
It's just that regardless of mojo's flip, I can't see daven being a wolf. When daven is a viable lynch for today, and when wuf is advocating snapping him off tomorrow, then I feel it's entirely appropriate for me to be speculating on this now rather than after the lynch.Quote:
I can see what you're getting at but I'm not a wagon-analysis guy. I especially am not giving credence to wagon analysis before flips even happen.
Hmmmmmmm.
I have to think about this.
The feeling I had was that there could be wolves too scared to move. Also, the possibility that one of Daven/MMM is Cursed muddles things quite a bit.
Ong, when you were a villager in the Anon game, with tied W-W wagons on D1, how would you describe the threadflow then compared to now?
idk I can't really remember. Threadflow is a new concept that has only recently started to be talked about. I'm not sure if I give it any significance. There's any number of reasons why the thread might flow differently, many of them subjective at best.
I thought I really liked both of these wagons before and now I feel less confident.
It could be that one/both of Gabe/Keith have heroed D1 again. I can't say I agree with either of their wolves though.
in short, let's lynch JKDS
does JKDS go to ground this long as a villager?
Yeah JKDS can do this as villager or wolf. And the risk of lynching a special at deadline is maybe a bit too much for a JKDS to be viable. I'm happy with a wuf lynch because he's very likely to show up before deadline, and if he doesn't that's dodgier than JKDS not doing so.
mojo could be a wolf, that would explain why he didn't get hammered. It's daven I think isn't a wolf based on wagon dynamics. mojo reads villager but maybe that's a misread. Or maybe the wolves really are being complacent and I'm derp clearing daven based on them dithering.
Looks like mojo is our man. I'm not thrilled with it but it seems better than daven because I think the wolves are hoping daven gets it, hence no hammer.
Daven could claim seer and I'm calling him a fake
He could be first on the wagons of two lynched wolves and I'm calling him the third wolf
Why? Did you see his first 48 hours of play? There's no coming back from that.
Yeah. I still have Wuf in the "skeptical face" camp but I have to agree with him on Daven.
I'm really interested in hearing from the numerous people who have soft-pushed Daven without voting him, and particularly Gabe/Rong on why they think Daven defended himself well.
I just find wagon dynamics near deadline more compelling than the things people say. We all know villagers can do wolfy stuff. There's a very good reason why daven isn't a wolf. Mojo is still alive. Think about it.
Tomorrow, Keith. Nobody cares about our tiff right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith
FWIF, here's how my d2 is looking (barring any crazy kills dynamics): In pregame, you preannounced an MMM vote, then flipped wolf this game, then shat yourself when MMM wigged out early, thus started an easy wagon, and got your buds to join in on the free/easy lynch that couldn't possibly be backtracked. But MMM didn't roll over; in fact, he stood tall. Then I started a Daven wagon which got steam. Then I pointed out who I thought was a wolf sitting on MMM, and that you started it. Now both you and Rong are freaking out on me.
But nobody else is giving a shit about our battle right now and I recognized that.
So I try to avoid being a distraction and ask for a temp truce.
But you MOVE YOUR VOTE??
FFS
How's that not a distraction?
Show us you're working for the village.
"u out me, so i bold u" is not productive.
Put your vote in the game where it matters.
We have to lynch MMM. Always. We're kidding ourselves if we think he doesn't have cursed equity. A decent percentage of the time the cursed will act wacky and drop all those tells, and a decent percentage of the time he will post defenses exactly like MMM has. Frankly, if MMM was villager I would expect him to be more vociferous about how bad of reads and decisions we have on him
But there has been none of that. Maybe he isn't cursed, but he's playing fully in line with what cursed would do more than average.
Punching through a d2 Daven lynch is because he can say nothing that will change his first 48 hours. I find it fucking hilarious that Ong was all like "wow daven got wolf" then 24 hours later he's all "daven who?"
The anon and ghost wolf games blasted a hole into this sort of reasoning. Sure, it's possible, but all sorts of unreasonable shit seems to happen in these gamesQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I find it fucking hilarious that you're totally ignoring what I'm saying about the wagon dynamics and pointing towards his d1 comments like he fucking arrroood.Quote:
I find it fucking hilarious that Ong was all like "wow daven got wolf" then 24 hours later he's all "daven who?"
Obviously I don't mean we should literally slam through a daven lynch. I mean, I think we should, but I am not the only player. People need to do what they're gonna do, and I'm gonna be here saying people need to do what I want them to do
Well this might be a fair point, but when you talk about snapping off daven on d2 without even discussing it or the flips, then I find you very hard to take seriously.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
The first rule of wagon dynamics: don't talk about wagon dynamics until after they happenedQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
That rule worked for Fight Club, didn't it? And I've explained why I'm speculating about it now. Daven is a potnetial lynch today.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Frankly, the main reason I have for not wanting to lynch MMM or Daven is that I want to lynch MMM and Daven. You know, because I'm wuf and wuf is always wrong with this stuff
Let's imagine Baud's "for postgame" read is right: Gabe/JKDS/DavenQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
In that case, we should expect that Gabe and JKDS would know better than to be the deciders on the MMM lynch
TBH, the argument you're making is quite similar to ones I've done a lot in the past, but got burned hard on in the anon game
If they're villagers I hope I'm the millerQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Which means I'm probably the miller
I find myself disagreeing with a lot of what Ong is saying but I find him villagery.
I agree with a lot of what Wuf is saying but I think he's wolfy.
Game is hard.
Actually I'd be surprised if those of us here arguing near EOD weren't all villagers.
I have lost almost all my faith in wagon dynamics fwiw. Way too often I've seen wolves play straight up stupid
BID/JKDS/aubrey lurking through D1. To a lesser extent Keith, but he's in here now, tunneling on key.
Key making some ambitious speculation, and Keith picking up on it, is my read.
Which is not to judge the speculation for truthiness.
Key claiming tactics is odd.
I expect tactics from key, but I don't expect him to explain himself so simply.
I'm sure I've not seen authentic condescension out of keybored yet, but it's something this game can bring out of people.
(sorry guys, still bros?)
I'm not too sure about gabe and rong.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Lurkers:
BID, aubrey, JKDS, monstr
1 hour to go bros.
It's actually kind of a relief to not have a crazy vote swing where 10 people switch off right before EOD.
jfc stfu wia
I wouldn't hate a CFD tbh.
I'm setting a trap for anyone who wants to come in and YOLO.
DUCY?
think back to last game guys , i nailed 3 wolves and was eaten night 1 and village went away from the three i targetted. Keybored was one of those three. I keep asking him to explain himself and he keeps refusing. If i die tonight you guys have got to keep pressing him to answer the points i've made . He's hoping i die , and the village then doesn't follow through .
Are you thinking what I'm thinking?
https://overthinkingexpat.files.word.../chimp_gun.jpg
Baud...since you're lurking at day's end and nuthin else is goin' on...why did you vary your voting this game by sticking with just one bold all day? You hit Daven 15mins into it and never moved. Are you no longer hunting with bolds?
I think ong is right, daven has been tied for a couple hours now - where's the panic?
Unfortunately the important people aren't online now to do a CFD, so it doesn't matter.
Currently Active Users
13 members and 109 guests (non-game players' names removed obv.)
MadMojoMonkey
baudib*
dhubermex
Keith*
Keybored
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OngBonga*
http://www.geek.com/wp-content/uploa...e-obi-wan1.jpg
Vote with me, ongbonga. You're my only hope.
lynch mojo
L-1
The Daven vote was originally a joke but he came in howling and has done absolutely nothing since to convince me he's a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
but MMM was a runaway wagon from the get-go, where exactly was I going to go? Daven has taken the Gator defense of ignoring the fact that he's a wagon. So if the 2nd wagon isn't even responding to pressure, what good is it to bold anyone else?
Though tbh, I would usually eye people off-wagon with a suspicious eye here, I kinda respect it.
alright, looks like a done deal.
glgl, we're gonna need it I think.
daven isn't defending himself because he's in New Zealand and it's first thing in the morning there.
Who are they?
http://www.servermonkey.com/wp/wp-co.../02/monkey.jpg
My friends... why?
I thought he was in UK. but he didn't seem interested in villaging himself out of it and disappeared at exactly the time he started getting more votes.
Monkey begs for his life and you cap his ass without cause.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
dude...that was harsh.
your vote meant nothing since MMM was already L-1 (tie breaker).
stone cold, bro.
I don't think I finished him, but if I did it doesn't matter. And I don't care if he's begging for his life. Remember me begging for my life last game? I've explained why I'm not lynching daven.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
Post #554 summarizes my final reads.
See you on the flip side.
Ong's vote doesn't matter, unless he's protecting Daven from a snipe from another wolf.
gg MMM
We do pretty well for an international community. There's only really daven and boog that I can recall who ever found it difficult to engage in real time.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
10 minutes left.
gg mmm
or protecting MMM. IDK. figure it out later I guess.
How is that the exact same reasoning you are using?Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
I was literally saying "I won't be impossible to read, but I will have a hard time reading many of the people here because of a lack of experience in the thread." Those two sentences are not dissonance, nor are they mutually exclusive because one explicitly means, in my opinion, "I'm not going to try to read you and jump out the gate trying to lynch you" ergo: my reaction
and the other explicitly means, in my opinion, "I will have a difficult time reading you" but at no point do I throw my hands up into the air and say "I'm going to refuse to try." And I think I've made quite a few reads from tricks of the trade I've learned through villaging at PoG like reading threadflow and tone of players and to be honest I just see you constantly tunneling me and it gives me a rough time being able to try to be objective about your alignment, which I know is flawed logic but you have to admit when someone comes at you it's hard to shrug off the initial reaction of "Why is this person reading me wrong, are they a wolf trying to lynch me?"
it's funny cuz on the other site we could probably start 2 whole wagons in 10 mins.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
I dunno what the votes where, I threw mine back on mojo to increase the chance it's him who dies. I think he's more likely to be a wolf based on wagon dynamics. If I were acting on gut, I'd say daven is wolfier, but wagon dynamics > gut on d1 imo.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
I would love for you to read the champions game I'm in and tell me that you expect amazing participation from me on both sites especially considering I am clearly far more invested in the other game. I was told when signing up I could be slightly lower volume and not have to deal with the stress which is partly the only reason I joined because the posts in the champions game just reached #4913.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
No offense to this site but I was in that game first and it is a lot more post-intensive environment and it makes it difficult for me to shift gears so massively between the two cultures of PoG and FTR especially with the lack of meta that I have on this site.
Sorry I don't mean to sound rude or anything.
I'm trying as hard as I can to be present in both sites with as much participation as I am capable of giving.
sounds like funQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
yeah I don't think it's the greatest village strategy. I had a chat with the mod about it in dead chat and I was like, "hey we spend all day talking about the wagons, get up to like 2,000 posts in 12 hours, and then everyone gets buyer's remorse and says, "hey let's lynch someone else."
but i've seen it work, and more importantly, the vote switching leads to finding wolves quite often.
Day is over.
Vote Count 1.6
MMM - 7 (wuf, rong, dhuber, aubrey, BID, daven, Ong)
daven - 6 (baudib, keybored, Luco, MMM, bigred, monstrman)
keybored - 1 (keith)
monstrman - 1 (gabe)
No vote - (JKDS)
Monstr, don't talk too much about the Champs game, I might sub in if Yamato doesn't post soon.
I'm not qualified to be in it, but then neither are you!
#SHOTSFIRED
i said fun, not smartQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
I take a moderately irritated corycurren level of offense to thatQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
:P