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Wuf, you never pointed out Aubrey's wolf-tell like you said you would. My question is how could you have so strongly read her as a villager but the moment she's about to get shot, you just notice a potential wolf-tell of hers. She only ever had like five posts or something; if you knew her so well, why did it take so long for you to find this tell of hers?
If you can point me towards her wolf-tell and convince me of its legitimacy, I will reconsider my vote against you.
personally, I think hes probably the backup poisoner but hes lost his mind for whatever reason todayQuote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
im not getting blindsided as a wolf on this sort of thing. with aubrey in the position she was in, id be prepping an immediate shot for the itas. there was plenty of prep given how much people wanted her dead for how longQuote:
Originally Posted by ProbablynotAWolff
i did point it out. you must have missed itQuote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
Wuf and bopo, because I have you both here. Take a look at the VC I posted a page back. If SIU flips villager, where would the wolves most likely be on their wagons? Knowing how now that Aubrey was a wolf. Just looking for thoughts/opinions/etc.
1503Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
she has a higher probability of caring more about what people say about her as a villager, and less of one if she's a wolf. this sorta directly counters my read from earlier
lolQuote:
Originally Posted by TheBrokenATM
Don't know what to make of this?
You aren't wrong. In audrey's position it makes more sense for wolfbros to get villa cred then it does to defend herQuote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
easy, gizmo. but that's true regardless of what siu flipsQuote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
the most likely scenario though is maybe one wolf flip to gizmo and the rest just spread out and maybe absent. it's usually like that. wolves are never as sophisticated and on the ball as we give them credit for
I like the vote count you posted around ITAs where it was two hours til the EoD and Aubrey was the lead wagon. I think you and Ong look especially good from it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
I'll take a look at that VC your talking about in a minute
I mean, point me to one or two players specifically.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
And you're right, they never are as organized. I would bet that at least one wolf is hiding still off of the first three wagons. But I think we can absolutely find something in the shift from Aubrey to SIU and Gizmo. I think this began around Pg. 7? I'm using 100ppp.
First, I have no idea why wolves' poisoned SIU or kami. It doesnt make sense based on the heat they were getting. If theyre villas, theyre prime candidates to get lynches on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
Second, I think they shouldn't be healed in case it is some sort of FPS.
Third, I think if there are wolves in the Gizmo wagon, it is probably bigred but wolves are most likely off wagon or on Kami/ship. Someone mentioned ong leaving a vote on Audrey for credit, but he was on audrey when she was the top wagon which looks good. I need to reread the EoD to see if that holds up though.
I want to look when Rilla voted on Gizmo and how that went down
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Originally Posted by baudib
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Posting for everyone. Need to take a look for myself.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
im still in the camp where i think all the wolves are slanking. bid kami siu look much better to me than anybody else. theyre the only who have done zero (count it, zero) things i think are villy. everybody else has something going for them. even pnaw is looking better of recent.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
well wait, and batm, he's slankin too. put me down for wanting nobody dead before bid kami siu batm.
Initial thoughts: Kami and SIU look wicked suspicious for moving onto Gizmo like they did. If possible let's let them both die to poison. They're not here helping out anyway. Also, wuf literally skated around Aubrey's wagon entirely. Really, really not a good look.
i think we should let kami and shipitup both die
of course, we are a favorite to save a villager by healing one, but i dont think its +EV
i think we need to maximize our chance of killing the next wolf. we have a strong village and these 2 arent really apart of it, and both have some chance of being wolves
So, really hopped from Wuf to SIU without saying a word. He literally just changed his vote. Completely unprompted and w/o an explanation. And he stuck it there until the end of the phase. I can't see wolf!rilla voting for wolf!SIU to combat wolf!Aubrey's wagon. Unless Aubrey were a wolf PR, but we know that that isn't the case.
This looks very clearing for SIU and Kami, tbh. I think their shotty D1 was just that - a shitty D1.
rilla hopped* not really hopped
looking at those votecounts. I dont want to vote for anyone that was ever on audrey. Her wagon is so pure.
wufwuf, your voting pattern is not so good. Audrey was tied in the lead with 2 hours to go then with 1 hour BID was in the lead(with your vote and the audrey wagon fell apart. Just by looking at the votecounts it looks as if the BID wagon was pushed to save Audrey which is a good look for BID, and the only reason it really was stopped was his claim.
If anything, it makes it so if BID is a villa those on his wagon look bad but if he's a wolf those on him, especially after Aubrey was no longer lead wagon are virtually lock clear. The only way BID never gets lynched is his claim, and I don't think wolves bus another wolf to save Audrey, especially since it puts a timer on BID and Audrey still has heat in the future.
Agreed, Ong's D1 looks really solid. BATM'snvote against him just recently looks even worse.
Can you explain that one a little more?Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
Haha nice white. Forgot about thatQuote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
Personal victory
Quote* not white
Almost ninja edited cuz it was in rules last game as allowed for typos. But wasn't sure with king baubob
Disagree, they can be like bid and just make up the numbers. they're both villaQuote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Kami is spewed clear by BOTH confirmed wolves in their respective first posts
If I'm seer ship was my n0 villa peek so he's the one I'd save but as long as we save one that's all that matters
ok. i'm listening. but i went back and reread aubrey's first post and dont have the same conclusion you guys have. can one of you spell it out?
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Originally Posted by aubreymcfate
ive been studying werewolf some. does anyone have the rest of this slideshow?
http://i691.photobucket.com/albums/v...dBobAA/ww2.jpg
+1Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I know you guys don't listen to me, but I'm gonna say it anyway - wuf is like 90-95% villager right now.
Whole post written on the assumption that kami is V.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Read Aubrey's next two posts after that as well
i did and i still dont see why its that strong of a case for kamiQuote:
Originally Posted by Luco
you are saying aubrey couldnt have been faking that kami=village assumption?
Gabe you're normally really good at this, I'm disappoint. put your head inside aubreys and see what she sees, does she see a wolfsister?Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
First post she calls her a 'person posting flippantly' which is prob exactly what she sees tbh
Second post she goes to great detail defending her
Third post - first thing to note is 'lol chill, I misread something someone said about you' directed at kami which is a v lean in and of itself, then she goes on to bold her
It all stacks up to a kami clear imo
It counts for a little b/c Aubrey and kami were 4-4 when you put bid on 3, so slight v lean for not voting kami I guessQuote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
But are you trying to claim credit for voting drew wolf even though he hasn't died yet?
i just did a lot of rereading and i think PNaw (bopo?) is a villager lock
the poisoned should be left to die even if they are 92% village. we cant get FPSed
my process of elimination keeps leading me to boog/bid/batm which i believe ong also called out exactly earlier. bigred is in the list but not really sure about him
BankItDrew
Bigred
BooG690
Kami
ShipItUp
SuperMonkeyFace
TheBrokenATM
which could be 2 wolves among the following, if BID has given up (i expect a day 3 cc at this point):
BooG690
SuperMonkeyFace
TheBrokenATM
despite boog shooting at BATM i think they can be wolves together. i considered hifi mightve been involved in something like this with rilla, but after some more review ive changed my mind
lynch boog
let the poison people die
tonight poison SMF or BATM
wolves can do whatever they want
tomorrow we lynch bigred or bid
we poison bigred or wuf
wolves kill whoever and poison whoever
and THE END it doesnt matter
gg wolves
There were a lot of people calling for her head (me, beck, you, kami and more). Takes a confident wolf to defend her hard in that spotQuote:
Originally Posted by ProbablynotAWolff
You guys are so silly
Just because a villager isn't spamming posts 24/7 doesn't mean you should let them die. They still count towards your villager count so stop being bitter mouth breathers and saying both poisoned people should die when minimum one of us is confirmed town
kami
gabe
I said this already about 20 posts agoQuote:
Originally Posted by Kami
Yeah I saw your posts luco but gabe doesn't seem to get it
But yeah I'd save siu
sorry girl but i get it
there is no point in saving you
you arent 0% to be a wolf, you arent helping village, and its a good policy-poison response to your play this game. same for siu
smh. kami is so cool. i hope she stays because of how cool she isQuote:
Originally Posted by Kami
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Originally Posted by Beck Novo
I don't like the way you put yourself in green here. You're not cleared at this point like the dead villas you listed. There are others that are more clear than you like Luco and Hifi because of the rilla shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
I've been thinking the same about you. We're both in the POE based on both of us shooting at JKDS. I'm just the one unlucky enough to hit a wofly villa. The one thing that looks good in both of our cases is that we had concencus between us on the rilla and Aubrey shots to start the ITAs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
I disagree with a wuf lynch. I think boog has been much wolfier and I think we gain more info from his lynch.
First quote doesn't belong there. These left over MQ's get irritating.
I stopped clicking the MQ button a long time ago. I copy & paste multiple quotes into a new window which doesn't work out any slower but avoids dat mqQuote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
lynch boog
I don't have him that high, but I think he's likely villa and not a good lynch today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
I pretty much agree with this, it pretty much mirrors my reads post from earlier.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Off to work now. See you this evening.
#820 when it was aubrey vs kami vs bid
+v point for kamiQuote:
Originally Posted by Kami
lynch boog
Boog / BATM / SMF aren't posting enough to clear themselves from the PoE and prob never will.
SMF is great on tone but is def lower volume than last game so he's gotta stay in there
@rascal, I put myself in green because I know from my perspective that I'm a villager.
Morning. Oh wait it's 1.30pm. How do I sleep for so long?
batm/boog/drew all fine lynches today. Not sure about wuf. For sure he'd hard defend aubrey as wolf, because he knows he does it as villager. With wuf, what I don't like is that come ITA, his attitude towards aubrey changed, like he knew she was likely to die and flip wolf, making him look bad. But wuf is smart enough to know that what he was posting, his turn on her at such a time, would look even worse when aubrey flips. So I think wuf is derp cleared here, I just don't see him turning on aubrey so blatantly if he knows she's about to flip wolf.
idk, I could go either way with wuf on this. On another day I could find this wolfy.
I hate his locked in vote though. wtf is that about?
I'll stick with BATM for now, at least until boog shows up. Is boog in Korea or USA these days? I can never keep up with him. If he's in Korea, then it's the middle of the night. Last thing we want to do is lynch the seer.
CHEW THE CHEEBA
Vote count
Boog 4 (gabe, rascal, ProbablyNotAWolff, Luco)
Wufwugy 2 - (Beck Novo, Wufwugy)
OngBonga 1 (TheBrokenATM)
TheBrokenATM 1- (OngBonga)
Beck Novo 1 - (BankItDrew)
Not voting: Kami, ShipItUp, SuperMonkeyFace, MadMojoMonkey, bigred, BooG
End of day is 12 hours, 5 minutes from now
You're right. I probably won't be able to post enough to clear myself. I'm around in ~1 hour increments about 2-3 times per day. I understand that isn't enough, especially relative to everyone else.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
I'm not the best lynch today. The optimal lynch is BID but the village isn't budging on that. It almost seems obvious to a BATM lynch is better than lynching me. If we're going solely on post count, fine, BATM probably has more posts. However, his content is lacking and there's no substance.
Again, do NOT lynch me tonight. I'm going with lynch BATM here.
CHEW THE CHEEBA
Vote count
Boog 4 (gabe, rascal, ProbablyNotAWolff, Luco)
Wufwugy 2 - (Beck Novo, Wufwugy)
TheBrokenATM 2- (OngBonga, BooG)
OngBonga 1 (TheBrokenATM)
Beck Novo 1 - (BankItDrew)
Not voting: Kami, ShipItUp, SuperMonkeyFace, MadMojoMonkey, bigred, hifi
Look it's Kate Upton
http://i.imgur.com/hh0P9IU.gif
He's a self resolving problem, lynching him today is actually sub-optimal for that reasonQuote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
work is kicking my ass today but I'll be back on later with alcohol and a fresh read through, see what I can sniff out. I may switch to batm
Ok let's have a look at boog and BATM.
Boog... nothing out of the ordinary in his entrance. Gets behind me on the drew wagon. d2 thinks ship is a wolf due to wagon diverting to gizmo. The only thing I see of concern is his "night shot" comment, but it's hard to imagine a wolf typing that without him realising how bad it looks.
BATM... it's a lot more difficult to follow this guy's logic, if indeed it can be called that. There's no explanations for his reads, no detail, and lots of excuses for being busy. He's currently voting for me after saying I'm a wolf several times without once explaining why he thinks that.
It's pretty clear to me who the optimal lynch is. Sure BATM might be cleared if boog flips wolf. Same is true the other way around. Also, it's reasonable to say boog looks good if ship is a wolf, whereas BATM has interacted so little with people that he can't be considered cleared based on anyone else's flip.
boog has a lot more to offer.
Boog explained that night shot, he thought you shot once per ITA. I remember reading it in real time and it didn't jump out at me as wolfy at allQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I saw boog's explanation. I think boog is only wolfy through poe right now. I can disregard that night shot comment. Just because you didn't find it wolfy, doesn't mean I didn't. I thought he was referring to game night, hence it struck me as wolfy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
In fact boog isn't even wolfy from poe if drew and ship are wolves.
Wait, you're voting boog.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
I think boog is likely to look good after a couple more flips. I don't like this wagon at all.Quote:
Boog 4 (gabe, rascal, ProbablyNotAWolff, Luco)
Also, because we know that the wolves don't have a night shot, Boog's "slip" isn't a slip at all. It should be ignored, honestly.
Boog feels a lot better to me than BATM. I feel like the last time I saw BATM play as a wolf he slanked pretty hardcore. Would appreciate HiFi's thoughts here, because she's able to read him better than I am.
Agree that boog is wolfy by PoE and not by anything standout that he's done. Could say the same about bigred / smf too.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
And ofc you're entitled to read his night shot comment however you like, just giving you my take on it thats all
I already said I'm rereading & possibly switching before EoD and there's no MAJ today, so don't get a bee in your pants over where my vote is sitting rnQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Really? I missed this. If confirmed, my vote goes on BATM.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
The ONLY reason I want to vote boog is that gabe is voting boog. boog is in POE, but he has posted villagery things. I have him as a villager in my list. I just respect gabe's villager game that much.
This is why I want to see a gabe v boog FIGHT. I don't see what gabe is seeing, and I want to see either boog cleared or boog obv wolf.
For the record, I have gabe as a core villager along with Beck. This makes it difficult for this "fight" of yours to happen, MMM.
Where do i sit from your pov boog?Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
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Originally Posted by Beck Novo
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Originally Posted by OngBonga
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Originally Posted by Beck Novo
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Originally Posted by Beck Novo
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Originally Posted by OngBonga
Here is why I like Beck/Ong as town. Beck comes in to today pushing shots onto Rilla, then Ong chimes in about shots on aubrey and they follow through with advocating for their shots.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
If Beck was a wolf, He would have to be bussing pretty hard to advocate for shots on two wolves. Especially since if he was a wolf, he directed me to shoot aubrey over JKDS who he would know is a villager. That is crazy bussing if he is in fact a wolf. He could have easily directed shots at villagers or pushed harder on shooting at BID because there is alot of anti-BID sentiment.
Ong looks really good because if he was a wolf, he knows that Beck already has a wolf at the top of his ITA list. It's suicidal for the wolves to actively push for another wolf as #2.
I'm posting this because I know some of you have ??? reguarding these two
You are so silly. Just because you mash buttons and angle-shoot the whole point out of this game doesn't mean you are contributing to the solution of the game, or have in any way demonstrated that sussing out wolves is part of your agenda.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kami
Much as I agree with your math (and I :h: math), this game is about people and why they do what they do. The math helps when it helps, and my math says that you were the target of the village poisoner.
You want to live? I haven't seen you make a single post which caters to this desire. You can angle shoot your way to clearing yourself, but you can't angle shoot your way into solving the game.
Why do you insult people who are on your team? Why do you avoid forming logical thoughts about other players in the game? What benefit, in your own estimation, do you offer the village? <- Serious question. Why should you be allowed to live besides "numbers, guys!"
Show evidence that you are even playing the game. Maybe next time you play, you wont be derided as useless.
***
BTW rascal's logic involves too many low % activities to get to the end result that the wolves both poisoned Ship and expect him to be healed, while it is supremely unlikely that Ship was the villager target.
Please weigh in on this discussion: Luco, Beck, gabe, anyone.
What % chance do you think that wolves poisoned Ship, who is himself a wolf?
I personally am shocked that either of them were poisoned by the wolvesQuote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
So you're going to quietly sit there while one of your top V's is wagoning you? That V being gabe.Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
-.-
Why would you do this as a V? You have no suspicion of gabe's intent? You have no will to defend yourself?
That's going to make me want to vote you for my own reasons, never mind gabe's read.
POTGQuote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
MMM is the best
You're a confirmed villager as well, given your rilla shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
I DID defend myself. Did you miss that post?Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
I don't think I've played a game yet where I haven't been on the chopping block. It'd be wrong of me to be suspicious of every player who suspected me of being a wolf. Gabe's suspicions seem legitimate. ProbablyNot's suspicions are a more worrying. I don't like the leverage the POG players have here in directing our thought process.
There is a good chance I either missed the post where you defended yourself, or that when I read it, I thought it was non-threatening, so didn't commit it to memory as a response to gabe.
I will go back and check when I have time this evening. When I'm at work, I can only keep up and add a brief comment if I have a break.
The students are on Fall break today, so I have more free time than usual, but not enough to re-read any posts.
I accept your answer until I can double-check. Or at least until gabe responds.
***
What do you think about my read on Ship? Is he mechanically cleared?
time to get off boog and on batmQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
What does everyone think of rascal?
guaranteed at least one of kami siu are wolves. probably both. for somebody who says she didnt gaf about dying so much, kami seems to not want to die
less villy than normal but not by a lot. his w game is probably solid v-like tho. i am weary of deconstructing rascal because of how badly i pwned myself when he was outed angel and i got him lynched.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
wary not weary
i'm on boog because my process of elimination left me him, batm, and smf. also boog has not posted much. i could switch to batm. i think it's a cakewalk either way
I'd suggest the seer have a look at rascal maybe. I'm pretty sure he's got the ability to look like a strong villager if he's wolfing.
When I said a while back that "lists are wolfy", I meant it. I think lists are so easy for wolves to just post and easily cover their tracks out make spew reading nearly impossible. But the reason I said it then was because that list rascal posted was to a tee what I think he's capable of as a wolf
With that being said. He's still probably a villager for now
he did suspicious things earlier (like saying the drago talk leaked from the den which i think is very difficult) but has then done lots of stuff i agreed withQuote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Or maybe not idk. Probably not. It'd probably be a waste cuz if he's a villager he likely draws a nk pretty often and if he's peeked than probably shorter life span
iso batm and see that he isnt even reading the thread or assessing any new info. he wanted ong dead both before and after the relevant events that have mostly cleared ong. if bid is a wolf, which he most likely is, it makes batm look even worse.
iso boog and see that even though he doesnt post a lot, his posts have content and consistency. also keep in mind that boog is very very good at getting killed as a villager. it's weird. he has the wolfiest style of anybody.
I've played with rascal before when he was a wolf. I was certain he was on my villager team but I was wrong.
rascal is an excellent wolf
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
What about this game?Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Can you be more specific?Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
And what does one quote have to do with the other?
Must have accidentally hit the mq while scrolling, ignore the first post.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
You said rascal is an excellent wolf. Do you think he is a wolf in this game?
Torn. I have him as a soft V.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Thing is, I've seen him be fully paranoid and unwilling to follow a village core. That game I played on MU, he was like this. I was squirming that he couldn't be a V, even though the odds were like a million to one in favor, given the other roles. He can be a hyper-paranoid V who doesn't trust anyone, sometimes.
I think he was on a crazy work schedule and traveling / sleeping in hotels during that period... so stress can be a part of that game.
This game, he seems more reserved. More hesitant to make waves. More in his balanced range.
He's still not a top priority for me to be paranoid of with the POE as it stands.
***
SMF still not giving me anything to put him in my V pile.
Re: broken. Normally the bold I'd give a villa lean for because this would probably be something mentioned in wolf chat so you'd adjust or whatever.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I've seen him play video mafia once and that's basically how he rekt as a wolf. By playing dumb
The entire broken assessment here is good but I just want to note that part
I think I'd like to hear from him Lynch brokenatm
rascal is probably a villager based on the fact the wolves are probably ship and BATM. I'd have rascal in same place as boog. Both are capable wolves, both seem villagery here but I wouldn't want to put money on it.
I think we have aa pretty good consensus going around on the POE.
Looks good, feels good. But I will say it's possible they have a decent posting wolf if we're wrong
CHEW THE CHEEBA
Vote count
Boog 4 (gabe, rascal, ProbablyNotAWolff, Luco)
TheBrokenATM 3- (OngBonga, BooG, SMF)
Wufwugy 2 - (Beck Novo, Wufwugy)
OngBonga 1 (TheBrokenATM)
Beck Novo 1 - (BankItDrew)
Not voting: Kami, ShipItUp, MadMojoMonkey, bigred, hifi
End of day in 6 hours 3 minutes
lynch boog
So many villagers. This thing is going to be locked by d4.
Batman really needs to not get lynched
Show me why.Quote:
Originally Posted by HiFi