At last we agree on something
Printable View
I've practically begged wuf for reads already, but obv. it's relevant what he thinks of Hoopy.
It's just that wuf's already said he's less likely to vote for Hoopy 'cause % sign. Add that onto his sporadic flip-flopping and I'm not sure what he could say besides a full condemnation of Hoopy that I will be able to put much stock in.
@MMM
Can you please post your graph again, but with the players paired up? Leaving off the unpaired people.
Right now, I want to
lynch boog
Mostly for tone reasons I've noted in prior posts, and also for the unfulfilled promise he made "in transit."
Plus BID likes it, and gabe told me to. (mostly kidding, but there's some weight to it)
***
I think key will prove himself today. He's def. out of his spaz zone that has reared up in recent games (He's been V). So he's plugged in this game... is it wolfy key? (Jibbers Crabst, don't take this as an invitation to spaz... I don't think it helped you except to protect village PRs, which there are none in this game.)
Every time I decide to read Ong as V, then do so, I feel like I'm just asking for a gut-punch. Still have him as V, though. If Ong is W this game, then much as I respect him (and I do), it's not nearly enough. I mean if Ong is W, then he's really taken his game to the next level in a matter of weeks.
I'm coming around on Luco. I think he's earned his way to neutral.
I can. I have to run errands today and I have a dinner thing tonight.
It's all in an Excel sheet that I've slowly been updating every game... and the addition of that VC graph is new and still clunky to change.
I'll need to create a ... blah blah blah ...
Yeah, I can do that... but I can't just pop it up in the next few minutes... maybe not even hours... but def. before EOD.
***
You want to see just the known pairs, and how many votes they had throughout?
So I'm omitting bigred, daven, key and Luco entirely?
Turns out A + B is pretty easy in Excel.
http://i.imgur.com/09cv4Ur.png
The chart is part of the reason mojo is clear. Wolves don't make charts.
Boogs last post of d1 felt kinda natural and not deathrolly imo. I want to hear more from him today
Monstr I think is v based on the name slips and a couple of other things. He's also low key though
Wuf I also have leaning v but admittedly this is more style based than substance based
Hoopy has been better today but I want to shelve him today for meta reasons - he showed a lack of stamina as a wolf last game so it may be best to just see if he can keep pace for a few days
I like the rascal lynch because Ong does. Without talking about private chat I think we have to lend some weight when someone says trust me my partner is wolfin. I already had rascal on the radar before this anyways, nothing he said d1 was as villa as his first game
alright this is a good post from you even if I disagree with a bunch of it.
I'd honestly rather not lynch Rascal today just because Ong is going to be the most likely villagery person to figure this game out mechanically.
i'm still probably only lynching Wuf-Boog today.
okay this turned out to be a huge ass post, so bear with
now that we have two deaths under our belt, we can actually do stuff. initial review of wagonomics shows me getting to 4 within the first couple of posts and not getting any lower until i rammed everybody's head against the wall. it was only after i demonstrated that i had been at 5 votes for the whole day and nobody else had been higher than 2 and most votes were either spread out in 1 or absent. even mmm had to drop off my wagon after that.
then near the eod it went to boog rapidly then just as rapid a drop off and onto gabe and baud. but then boog resurged. very eod had gabe edging out boog
i am obviously the most lynchbaity player in this game. merely minutes into it and i had 4 votes. count it, fucking 4. it took me raising hell to get below 4. i was accused of not hunting or playing my normal village game, but im left here baffled that anybody would think that since i never hunt d1. i goof around or bold based on intuition or policy. i do wagonomics and deep game reads. d1 has not been a hunting day for me for like two whole years. the wolves are those who pretend they dont know this.
enter rilla. he has made it a point to muddy the waters and tell everybody im acting differently. sometimes im left wondering if anybody even reads anythign i say. i tend to think i can read rilla well, so i thought little of it at first. but then he kept doing it. bolded me then debolded then bolded again. and he's back to it today. i have made it emphatically clear that my schedule is a specific time and that i am busy, yet yesterday, at a time when i am never on, he says "derp wuf is so suspiciously absent". ofc i am i usually dont get home until 3-5PST and even when i do im fucking spent because im a stupid person trying to major in math. it's funny how i keep telling a guy in my class how good he is at math and he keeps denying it, but he picks things up at least twice as fast as i do. this is literally the last thing i should be studying, which is why im doing it.
my d1 wagon was clearly a bullshit wagon without any counters. i think at least one player is among the first four bolds, most likely mmm. but apparently nobody even knows mmm is playing, as ive been the only bold on him all game. the other thing that stands out in the wagonomics is that once it became about baud and gabe, things got crazy. it could be about boog, but he's also major lynchbait. the dude gets early lynched in half the games he plays. it's reasonable since he always seems so wolfy, but the fact is that after i posted the huge discrepancy between my wagon and any others, everything jumped to boog. he and i are among the easiest lynchbait and the wagons got heavy almost instantly. looks more like wolves taking the easy road (as well as some villagers) more than bolding for rationale. if boog is a wolf, it would mean that my wagon probably wouldnt have lost the steam the way it did. i was such an easy lynch. this doesnt clear boog by any stretch of the imagination. hell he is one of my wolf picks for the simple fact that he was on my wagon so easily. but the ease of his wagon suggests he is just a railroaded villager. at least for now
which brings us to baud. well, and gabe but we know he's a villager now. it was when baud's wagon started getting steam that things got crazy. at the time i thought his defenses were better than gabe's, as he seemed much more natural baud. but he wasnt always. he opened the game claiming he didnt care much and wasnt going to do much. then suddenly when his neck nears the guillotine, he has epiphanies about how people not named baud are wolves. rilla too. once baud was under pressure, they both made a show of getting on gabe and they flopped around too. both of them adored lynching any of me gabe or boog. and today they're both on me.
baud and rilla are voting as a block. funny how they've basically cleared each other. more like they're both wolves. mmm is the third. it's in the wagonomics. here's the step by step of it
im in the lead and bid bolds boog
then I make the wagonomics post that demonstrates what ive been saying the whole time, and shortly after baud gets on boog
teh hoopman on boog. tell me it isnt so
lol jesus christ talk about lynchbait. granted rong aint a wolf
oh nifty so baud didnt think boog was a wolf then?
lolwat? boog wagon almost launching as quickly as mine did
boog defends himself and then ong switches
something something baud baud
boog on baud
oh hey what's this three switches
nutlow villaging or topform wolfing. notice that keybored has been on my case since second uno. i dont even think he has bolded anybody. just me over and over. all with shit reason.
not happy about this. boog engaging in some similar behavior as baud
oh heeeey look who decided to show up
and here we go, a known villager getting on baud
self preservation and/or reads. looks to me like reads and we'll be owing gabe and apology. cant say im a fan of the idea that gabe could retain his old glory as considered such a great player. ofc if he deserves it he deserves it
lol scratch that. all self preservation from gabe apparently
more self preservation
next three are telling
i thought everbody knew i was fucking gone. such opportunism. baud is in the clear and rilla wants to get back on me, laying all the groundwork he can. he's knows he cant nom me and he knows how strong i am as a villager. yes i get everything wrong, but that's only before i get it right. rilla absolutely knows the danger i pose, to him specifically since im never misread him in the pass. hell baud even recently said "he plays bad but gets there". in a no nom game, im a prime target of thinking wolves. huge lynchbait yet also huge narrative controller and endgame threat
hoops was already on boog but rebolds
oh heeeeeeey look who doesnt care about anything but confusion and getting not-deaded. me or boog, doesn't seem to matter
hmmmm
erebody bolding boog and gabe now
erebody including me. at least i had actual reasons. not some bullshit protection or bullshit self preservation
same time as me
a little surprised shakespeare (i mean daven) found enough time to stray his vision from me. tbh im sitting on my thoughts about him since i have been so epicly burned by his unquenchable desire to always help wolves.
sorry mmm, yes i do keep lots of stuff close to the vest. only newbs say most of what who they think is wolf and who isnt. i have long since changed to a style where i focus attention on individuals and wagon dynamics
late to the party. or maybe just on time. gabe was already over boog from both me and daven's posts. mmm looks worried since there was no time left
d2
never let a lack of rationale stop you!
fancy fucking that
here we have it folks. rilla and baud haven't assed a single correct thought about me all game, and here they are voting in block. they care more about getting rid of me than they do actually hunting. we have a wealth of information on d1. all good villagers use that info to their advantage. only bad wolves disregard it and cling to an agenda
lynch baud
for postgame: baud and rilla, with mmm and keybored for the final two.
yeah and like you've voted for bid all this time. stop the presses: wuf said the most obvious thing in the world that links won't be voting for each other any time soon
could mmm be assed to actually review the thread? to see that the pairs are voting in blocks? the last thing im going to do is tell you my opinion of hoopy, becuase ive been playing the way villagers should. if i think he's a wolf, im bolding him, and only then will you know what i think. i havent stupidly tried to suss him out in private chat. i already explained why. if we do that then we're doomed. reads are in game, end of story. if we try to take peoples' word for it on private chat, we lose
I mean if 2 of Wuf/Boog/Daven aren't wolves, I don't see how we win this.
Damn wuf as soon as I defend you you throw out two posts that I really disagree with.
I think at least three of the wolves you named are village, and I also see value in the 1v1 chat and have found it useful.
the thing is there is no way we can know.
every little advantage any villagers think they can get from private chats are negated by the advantages that wolves get by SAYING they are getting an advantage
lynches still happen by village consensus. it does not help if a villager has a special view of a player since wolves can have the same thing. it matters what we see itt
so Ong is probably a villager playing one of his worst village games ever.
Wuf is a wolf playing a bad wolf game or a villager playing his worst village game ever.
@wuf: Most of what you've just posted is excellent, and I'm handing out more V-cred to you.
I haven't voted for BID because I strongly believe he's a V... that doesn't mean I'm right and should ignore potential warning signs. Furthermore, I agree with you insofar as that my assessment of BID may be clouded by self-preservation. I may subconsciously have a higher bar for what I consider wolfy from BID. I am making every attempt to be objective. When he's been shady, I've called him out. Rest assured that if he gets all howly in chat, I'll bold him in big letters, and you can all just follow suit.
Like we will all follow suit if Ong's vote is on rascal at EOD.
I think chat is a great way to search for duplicity.
Obv. I'm reviewing the thread. I saw pairs voting together and pairs voting separately.
Fine, keep your opinion of hoopy to yourself. In the short term it does look wolfy (but I believe that you believe it's villagery). In the long term, maybe your strategy will pay off.
I'm more conscious of the village's need to make the decision with me. So I'm putting BID's feet to the fire whenever I get suspicious.
Don't think Wuf or Boog have helped themselves at all here.
in fact Wuf's wolf equity is skyrocketing because he's a shitty wolf who only has theoretical knowledge of wolfing.
your MQs are bad dude, and no one reads them anyway.
Boog at least isn't shooting himself in the foot with every sentence.
I don't think baud and daven are w-w
Baud has sidestepped daven one too many times now. It could be wolf baud trying to strawman but honestly I'm at the point where one flipping wolf is actually going to look good for the other
what exactly does this worst wolf game consist of? getting to the top of bolds in just under 3 hours of the game opening, then outlining strategy that helps us immensely, then finally people realize that i had been the leading wagon with no other options the entire game so they get off?
oh but wait i got accused of not posting while i was gone. oh but wait i got accused of not having epic d1 soulreads. oh but wait i just get bolded over and over and over
i am sorry if you are a villager. i am not in a cordial place over this game. i feel like i was right about the links, that i was backed up by most of the players, that it was a big deal that i was right since everything i see about the format suggests that wolves get a big benefit out of hidden links and villagers get a huge benefit out of revealed links, and yet despite all that, i have been on the chopping block constantly for this. nevermind that rilla had the same opinion as me. at first i was baffled that i was the one getting so much heat when i was saying the same thing as rilla, but now i think it's because rilla is a wolf
it's unlikely that both you and rilla are wolves, just like it's unlikely that any d2 soulread is correct. but if the shoe fits
My bad.
Somehow in my head I had it that you said you would post when you got home... but I guess I fucking made that up.
rescind boog
for my own derp.
***
lynch baud
cause I disgree with this post 100%
oh that's a solid reason MMM
also it's besides the point, Wuf. I've openly stated that I've changed my mind on Daven anyway, so parsing every post to find contradictions isn't particularly enlightening or helpful.
you're not hunting or searching, you're lawyering pretty hard.
you can argue that Hoopy is even being wolfier than Wuf at this point.
tbh im super reluctant to express an opinion on hoopy because i think no villagers should take it to mean anything. we already have evidence of people clearing their buddies, mmm cleared bid and you cleared rilla, all right quick. i dont think villagers saying how villagery their link is does us any good. wolves will do the same thing and there's no way we can tell the difference
that said, you do not remember hoopy's wolf games. remember my previous game, where i picked him up for wolf on d1. this isn't his wolf game, but im not terribly interested in saying why. ofc i am game to hearing rationale for why hoopy is a wolf. a self-lynch for the purpose of bringing down a wolf is the lord's work. but "he's wolfy" doesn't cut it
still in lawyer mode eh?
maybe i should play as whimsically as you. maybe i should say one thing and do another
it's like you think it's strange that i have been arguing for positions. you say it's strange that im defending myself as im on the chopping block. you say it's strange that im looking for wolves
instead i should be like you have argue for nothing yet assume everything
I just got home and did a quick skim of the thread.
Here's my take on what's going on with respect to Ong: All of his posting and posturing is Ong trying to convince me he's a villa.
I laid a trap for him last night and caught him in it. Based on the trap I caught him in, he's either a wolf or a paranoid villa.
My read on him right now is that he's likely a wolf in which case we (Ong/Rascal) need to get lynched.
I'm not going to vote him right now as I don't want to set up a possible MAJ for the wolves in case our interaction is V on V violence.
My statement above about not wanting to vote him now should not be taken as I don't want to vote him.
sigh
you have implied them all and your actions are based on them
because you're so trustworthy. you can clear players willy nilly. villagers can never do this. if you truly thought your list was cleared, you would also think the game is overQuote:
this is pretty much where i'm at, you can add Ong and Monstr to the list too.
none of which you have doneQuote:
still a lot of work to do.
rascal thinking I'm a wolf makes zero sense. This has to be an attempt to make this look like v/v.
Kill us.
lynch ong
I'll give the villa some more help here.
I'm Kreiger of ISIS. The one in the OP that let everyone know about the mind-bombs.
Now, I'm pretty convinced you are a wolf. Your last post prior to this one is at 3:01PM, then 6 minutes after I post, 4 hours and 31 minutes after your previous post you come back to the thread.
I'm pretty sure that you were told in wolfchat to come back in the thread.
I agree with you btw.
Lynch Ong
lol at getting a timing tell on me lurking. I've been hitting f5 half hourly, waiting for you.
But you've just gone BATM crazy with your posting today.
As a villa and with what has happened, there's only one way for me to read this. You're a wolf, I just don't get what you're play is here, other than you know I had caught you.
This has to be theatre from rascal. If he's a villager, he should know I'm just a villager. I'm not going to refer to anything in our private chat because that's against the rules, hint hint. I'd sooner we get lynched than modkilled.
What I can talk about is this... rascal is suggesting that I'm trying to win his trust by spazzing at him and telling everyone I think he's a wolf. Now bearing in mind I spazzed out as a wolf last game and paid the price, who here actually thinks I'd do that, in this format, where succeeding in getting my buddy lynched results in my own death? rascal is either not thinking through why I would ever do this as a wolf, or he's a wolf looking desperately for a way out of this.
partner on partner warfare is likely to come across as v/v, when push comes to shove. That's why he's attacking me.
Kill us.
You're the one creating the theater with your posting today.
I've done my job for the village this game. I found a wolf and outed him.
:popcorn:
Rascal, on scale of 1-10, what's your confidence on Ong being a wolf?
early assessment
Ong-Rascal
V-V 25%
W-V 40%
V-W 30%
W-W 5%
So this is all just an effort to convince you I'm a villager, right?
Answer me this... 15 minutes before deadline, what was your read on me?
If rascal was thinking like a villager, he's understand why I'm obviously a villager. But he's thinking like a wolf, trying to figure out a way to convince me I'm wrong.
Wuf...I was up your ass d1 but I was wrong. Solid villager in my book. However, I still think...
Hoopy's the Achilles heel of his team. Not necessarily a lock wolf, but a drag on the duo.
Rilla...I think you're lock V. But you gotta get a biopsy of that canker sore.
Baudib...You're a fucking wolf!
MMM...You're a villager in my head right now. But that could easily change!
BID...Yo're a villager in my head right now. Sniff your mate's ass a little more for us.
Ong...If you say Rascal is a wolf, then I'll respect. For now.
Rascal...I like you as villager, so I'm torn. Free pass this d2--barely.
Daven...You sound villager to me. However...
BigRed...You're the yin to your mate's yang. No vote=Fuck you. Wolfy.
Boog...I find you nearly lock villager.
Monstr...I find you neutral. Your two need to sniff each others' asses.
Luco...My bitch. Jury's still out partner.
Keybored...Lock villager.
There it is folks. That's this kid's reads. Until something else cracks...
LYNCH BAUDIB and the horse he's riding around on, Rilla.
well that's interesting but I don't find the Ong-Rascal pairing more compelling than resolving 1 of Wuf/Boog.
I'm not just thinking like a villager, I am a villager.
I don't understand what you're doing today no matter what you end up flipping. It makes no sense to me in either role you could be.
At this point, we just need to be the D2 lynch to get rid of the distraction for the village.
I understand what you're doing. You're hoping this looks like v/v. You know the village already have me as villager, so all you need to do is to convince everyone else you're a villager. Attacking my partner worked for me, maybe it works for you. idk. But it makes no sense for you to think this is a wolf move, none whatsoever. That just reaffirms my read that you're a wolf. I can't see why you wouldn't have just facepalmed me and tried to convince me I'm just paranoid. Your natural assumption is that I'm gonna go balls out trying to convince you I'm a villager, when you pretty much already thought that anyway? I don't believe that. If I'm a wolf, it was all going great until I lit this fire. So no, it makes no sense whatsoever for you to think I'm a wolf. Thus, it's theatre.
ONG & RASCAL: Listen up. If you both are true-dat serious about being villagers, then check it...
DO NOT VOTE and STOP DISTRACTING US.
Give us time to digest.
In other words...
Shut Thee Fuck Up!
For a while.
thx
v.
Obviously you don't understand where I'm coming from.
I want to lynch you based on the following:
(1) I think you're a wolf and you need to be lynched.
(2) If you happen to be a villa, then you need to be lynched because you're being a handicap to the village in what is going to be a tough game to solve.
Seems like the trending insult at the moment is to insult people's reading comprehension.
No way baudib & wuf are both wolves, that much sustained aggression and bile does not happen on the fly between teammates.
Well still, "get the other one deep" is just nonsense.
Ong has personally gone to extreme effort to point out that he's never a wolf when he suggests his partner is a wolf. Despite this, there has been little to no movement on lynching either one of them.
I realize there's self-pres involved, but I reckon that Wolf Rascal FPS this like virtually never. Rascal's not the most daring wolf, and I think he'd just protest his innocence while being content to take out a strong villager in Ong if shit hits the fan.
I still think Boog has the most wolf equity but I'm not sure that Boog-Monstr is the correct lynch
I'd rank it something like this
Boog 75% EW
Wuf 60%
Ong 40%
Hoopy 40%
Daven 35%
Rascal 30%
Big Red 30%
Luco 25%
Keybored 25%
MMM 23%
Monstrman 15%
Rilla 2%
BID 0%
**UNOFFICIAL VOTE COUNT**
BAUDIB (4) = Boog, Wuf, MMM, Keyb
WUF (3) = Rilla, Baud, Monstr
ONG (3) = Luco, Ong, Rascal
BOOG (1) = BID
Not Voting: Daven, Hoopy, BigRed (still)
8 to lynch
MMM and Key -- your votes are the nut low right now. correct that.