Nobody vote, I'm looking at you dhuber and key!
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Nobody vote, I'm looking at you dhuber and key!
Agreed.
No votes on this day without a case made.
Cases have been made/unmade for the past few days. With the exception of a self-lynch, I will support the direction of Hoopy/BID/MMM... in that order. Having one of the Villagers saved (had to be Hoopy, right?) gives us a good chance still of nailing a wolf.
So here's my case...
Hoopy: Village - Was in the solid Village camp of the known Villagers and tendencies are heavy Village lean
BID: That same post I quoted of him backing JKDS... it now reveals heavy Village lean due to JKDS flip
MMM: The flow chart could just as easily mean Village lean, plus JKDS offered his thoughts at the end (without backtracking on any other reads I might add)
OngBonga: Was suspected by Keith early on. Also suspected by JKDS, had most "forced" reaction to JKDS arooing and also posted in the middle of my suspicion that Keybored had outed himself by paying me a compliment.
Keybored: Also suspected at some point by just about everyone. JKDS thinks he's a wolf, I now think he's a wolf and believe he compliment of me was forced in an effort to get us on an MMM wagon.
lynch Keybored
OK, dhubs, we get your point. NOW, please rescind and withhold your vote for a while.
Let us know how your thoughts evolve over the weekend.
The last thing the village needs now is a short day.
BTW: Your arguments are offensively inadequate at this stage of the game. There are important questions that need to be answered about the story that has unraveled, and you fail to even make any attempt to explain the prior lynches or noms.
I'm looking up keybored, too. I'm not saying you are wrong in your accusation. I don't know yet.
I'm saying the worst possible thing for the village is a short day... even if we think we know for certain who 1 of the wolves is, we lose advantage by shortening the discussion of who the final wolf is.
Please rescind. Keep us posted while strengthening your case.
important questions:
What was keith on about that got him nommed?
Did the wolves actually intend to kill 2 wolves on day 1 and 2?
same question: Am I (MMM) wrong about the strategy the wolves used by controlling the dead thread?
Is the daven nom as obvious as it seems? (he nailed baud in a way that must have terrified the wolves, and was cleared by gabe for that.)
Why did Luco die?
Above all:
Who's the wolf team and how does it answer all of these questions?
The right answer will make the most pieces of the puzzle fit.
It will explain things, even when certain events are ignored.
Villagers unite: please add to my list of important questions, and let's answer them one by one.
I'll be afk for a lot, if not all, of the next 48-60 hours.
Dhuber
MMM
ong
keybored
hoopy
this is the order in which I believe the wolves are.
I'll throw a vote down later on in the game day.
WTF is happening to this game?
Dhubs does the single dumbest thing for a villager to do.
Then BID announces he's going AFK in the late game.
This game is downright retarded if either one of them is a villager acting like this. And equally retarded if they're both wolves acting like this.
If no one's going to give a shit about the outcome of this game, then let's just end it.
Fuck it. Keybored vote, I'll follow. The only read I have left is that key is V.
***
Anyway: here's what I was going to post before I read this goddamn tragedy that is going on.
Both baud and rilla gave themselves up. In retrospect, rilla basically howled, then howled some more, then said, I'm howling 'cause suck it.
Did the wolves intentionally drop the first 2? highly likely.
It explains why Keith dropped early. It explains why rilla played the way he did.
Anyone disagree? Or have anything to add?
Yah...i'm afk a lot this wknd too.
:cut:
MMM, you're retarded if you think there was no possibility of real life taking priority over WW on weekends.
MMM...If you're serious, I'm all in. If u got my back, I got yours. No BS. I'm throwing it out there. Dhoobs is a sleeper wolf. If you're serious, here it is. If not, then take me down.
Lynch Dhuber.
I'm not willing to be the only one who's putting in the effort on the game.
I believe keybored is as close to lock vil as there is.
I'm 100% neutral on ong.
It's not inconceivable that Hoopy/ong are the final 2, but I stopped reading before I got to the rilla vote because, (see above).
I have no case for that, and I'm not dropping a hint... I'm just saying it's not ruled out. The only things I've ruled out are any combo with me or key... and even that could use a re-vamp, just for thoroughness.
BID... idk... I doubt dhubs and BID as a team could flummox JKDS, hoopy and ong. It doesn't give any explanation for Keith.
But if this is dhubs villager game, then it's absolute garbage and he should be a standard day 1 lynch for the foreseeable future.
lynch dhubermex
Why are we voting so early???????
That's not a smart thing to do!
Just a heads up, both me and Ong are UK based. So we'll be asleep when it's the US evening.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Unless Ong took too many "happy pills" again.
He wanted to put villagers in the dead thread, he thought that controlling it was the best thing for the village. The wolves might have gone for hime to implicate someone (can't remember who).Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
This is basically asking is it more valuable for the wolves to have a free night kill? Or is it better to have more wolves? I think keeping the wolf teams numbers up is better. Day 2 couldn't have been a planned wolf kill at least.Quote:
Did the wolves actually intend to kill 2 wolves on day 1 and 2?
same question: Am I (MMM) wrong about the strategy the wolves used by controlling the dead thread?
He was basically confirmed village day 2, so yeah pretty obvious I'd say.Quote:
Is the daven nom as obvious as it seems? (he nailed baud in a way that must have terrified the wolves, and was cleared by gabe for that.)
Because he was hard to make a case against after the rilla wagon and is a beast at wolf hunting.Quote:
Why did Luco die?
dhuber - For being softly attacked by baudib on day 1, being disconnected from the village in terms of his thinking and for his wolfy early vote today.Quote:
Above all:
Who's the wolf team and how does it answer all of these questions?
The second one is tricky.
Right after baudwolf messed up his numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
This exchange is very interesting. It doesn't make sense with MMM as a wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
If the wolves wanted baudib in the dead thread then MMM shouldn't be defending him here, get some villager credit by pushing his wagon.
If the wolves were playing normally then this is a ballsy/risky move to defend a fellow wolf so obviously when he might get a big wagon quickly.
Baudib calling MMM near confirmed is unlikely if both are wolves.
Villager points for MMM.
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
I think baudib is the type of wolf who would be hyper aware of not avoiding other wolves.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Folks...If u believe the wolf pack self-lynched 2 off the get go (Baud then Rilla) then who'd they roll the dice with to win it? Or, if u believe Baud truly just fucked up and then Rilla simply tossed in the towel; then who'd he leave behind to carry on? Which ever path you're on, u have to ask yourself this first: Is the wolf pair that has successfuly nailed everyone since then made up of 2 regs or a reg/noob?
I maintain that we're on the latter path with the latter wolf pair.
Cuz this: Rilla actually showed up late to game, saw first his team makeup, then read the funky game rules, then read Baud's death spiral already underway. And he was pissed. U can see his frustration with nearly every post made. He wasn't happy with the game nor with his team. Thus, I think the wolves originally were 2 regs and 2 noobs. Cuz no way does Rilla bails on 2 regs after Baud dies. But Rilla would easily bail on 2 noobs (extremely unlikely wolf team, BTW) or a 1 reg/1 noob pairing. And that's what he did. Simple as that, no grand scheme by the wolves to kill 2 then win with 2v9.
So, which reg/noob teaming has done this?
KB/BID -- KB/HOOPY-- KB/MMM -- KB/ONG
or
DOOBS/BID -- DOOBS/HOOPY -- DOOBS/MMM -- DOOBS/ONG
Who did Rilla bail on?
MMM just nomd Dhoobs, he's out.
Hoopy spews villager whole game, out.
Ong is a hot prospect but mostly V to me.
BID is my choice tho.
BID shouts 'Kill Dhoobs' last night but don't. Trying to detract. BID is good enuf. He/Doobs are perfect for this.
Nail Dhoobs now and we're golden.
Or make a case for your own wolf team.
Regardless, don't vote to lynch looking at just 1 guy.
Find the team that you think did this, then vote.
If we go with the idea that the wolves didn't want to dominate the dead thread, then things are interesting.
Puts baudib on 1, middle of day 1.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
2nd vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Now this looks villager from ong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Rescinding baudib when he was picking up steam late now looks bad.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
If they wanted baudib in the dead thread then why would rilla not stay on him? He did the vote then quick switch to keith.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
More MMM villager credit.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
The wolves did not play day 1 like they wanted a wolf dead, unless ong is somehow a wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
lol not a million miles away.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
I'm here, I'll do something when this headaches goes away.
So why are people voting already? Might I remind everyone that we can lose tonight if we mislynch today.
If hoopy's in, and keybored is in, then I'm not throwing in the towel.
rescind dhubermex
My critique stands, though. If dhubs is a vil, then his V-game is completely unhelpful to his team.
This makes my eye twitch. It's during night 1. I could ask whether or not this is, in fact, vil cred. for ong... but the choice of words ong uses here is off. It sticks out somehow... I don't know. It makes my eyes twitch.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
***
This is thoughtfully coherent, not deep, but also not the norm from BID.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Daven soothes BID's concerns.
This is weird. Daven is feeling good about his soul-read on baud, and perhaps a bit gloatyQuote:
Originally Posted by daven
(Like my "little puppy" comment. Sorry JKDS. Then again, you prob. thought that was funny as hell, din'tya)
I think he may have over-attached to BID's "gone into this game" comment.
Because it seems like the wolves latched onto BID's concern as a valid plan B.
Daven's read is based off timing and being inside baud's head. With Daven confirmed, this is almost def. true. Gabe agreed, and gabe is confirmed, too. This means that a double-level move from baud is highly unlikely.
Strengthened by the rapidity of baud's mistakes. There was no time for the wolves to create a strategy yet.
The wolves couldn't have decided to have baud make a POV slip in his first posts, to set up the day. There wasn't time.
***
If the wolves "switched to plan B" then rilla's disinterest was totally faked. That gives us timing on the wolves plan as prior to end of day 1.
This seems likely, because why would rilla have not PM'd wuf that he didn't like the format and wanted to not play. If he's really that unhappy with things, would rilla just screw his team over instead of telling wuf to find an alternate?
Keith quotes one of ong's attacks, in which ong has bolded keith.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith
A) Keith's prediction of the wolves use of the dead thread is what I was expecting from a wolf-controlled thread.
We were def. and obv. wrong here.
These predictions on the use of the dead thread domination are not why keith got nommed.
***
What is this?
#317
#977Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
@hoopy: What do you think of BID/dhubs as final 2?
From what I've seen the wolves did not aim to control the dead thread.
Killing wolves deliberately means the game inevitably lasts longer because the village can get more lynches wrong before parity. Longer game is better for the village.
Wolves had 66% to get a successful night 1 kill with a dead villager in control. 100% chance with a dead wolf, but the increase of 34% for 1 night isn't worth 1 wolf.
Even if the wolves were blocked every night this game would be done after 5 days.
Now obviously the revive will effect this, I'm not sure how.
I am BORED of reading this fucking thread.
mojo are you asking me a question that you expect an answer to when you say "what is this"? I kind of want to answer sarcastically but in the mood I'm in it'll just come across as pissy.
I just want this thread active.
There's a ton of info, and this game should be EZ.
I don't care if you ignore all questions and just focus on giving your own reads (for a while).
Just get in the game.
There's only 6 peeps left.
FFS, ong, you're unreadable to me, and I don't like it one bit.
Please give some solid reads and arguments for where we are today.
Then vote dhubs and end it. I'll hop right back with you.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Between BID and dhubs, and now you... I'm out again.
Your game, hoopy.
lynch dhubermex
Why will it "end it"?Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Drew is cleared from the rilla lynch and I won't vote for him today. dhuber is wolfy as hell and needs to go.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Because I don't believe either me or keybored is a wolf, and if you vote dhubs, then regardless of your role, the wolves can do what they want.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
What do you think of BID/dhubs as final 2?
More to the point, what do you think of hoopy's argument that the rilla vote clears him and BID?
You must realize that to me, the 2 wolves are in {dhubs, BID, ong, hoopy}.
If the rilla vote clears hoopy and BID, then you obviously have to be my target, ong.
If you don't think the vote clears hoopy and BID, then dhubs and who?
If you say me or keybored, again... I have to target you.
So ong... is it BID/dhubs, hoopy/BID, hoopy/dhubs?
and hoopy... is it BID/dhubs, BID/ong, dhubs/ong?
But lynching a wolf won't end it. Lynching a villager might. This feels like a slip. Why would a villager say "end it"?Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
I think if hoopy is a wolf then drew is his buddy. I don't think that's very likely but it's possible they threw rilla under the bus to give the two of them enough village cred to cruise to victory. But that's my paranoia talking there. Logic tells me it's not them two because it's you and one more.Quote:
More to the point, what do you think of hoopy's argument that the rilla vote clears him and BID?
I said 'end it' because everyone is checking out and making excuses for not posting ITT, and WTF!?!
The best way to end it is to vote and let shit slide.
Do you actually care to help the village win, ong? Where's your fire? Where's you pushing out the impossible and looking at what's left. Why are you incapable of coming down hard as V or W on anyone?
Where are your cases?
lynch ong
hoopy's Carlton happy dance more compelling than ong's fake fistpump.
ong a devious player
JKDS cleared me with his dying breath.
ong focused on tiny slips instead of creating a compelling story.
ong not gnashing his teeth and naming names.
It's dhubs/keybored.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Everyone else has something to clear them, dhubs and keybored do not. I prefer dhubs today as I'm more confident on him.
Back on d1, Dhuber acknowledges the benefit of a prolonged discussion (d1 lasted 96 hrs).
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
I chastise for the quick lynch after Luco dies...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
Today, Hoopy asks for time to do the right thing, but pressures Dhuber...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
Shortly thereafter, MoMo also asks us to chill and do this right...
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Dhuber buddies up to Hoopy and says he'll do what he does...
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
A few minutes later, 1h10m into this day, Get 'er Dun Dhuber votes...
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
MoMo pleads directly to Dhuber to hold his horse...
Nothing from Hit-&-Git Dhuber in the last 24hrs...Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Cleared from what, Hoops? Something specific or the entire game?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
mojo is way too spazzy with his vote here. He's jumping on anything that moves.
Where's my fire? Do I really need to explain myself on a saturday? I don't do hangovers very well these days. I'm getting old. It's funny because if I were a wolf I'd probably have a greater sense of obligation to make it look like I'm doing stuff. ofc I'm not seriously expecting people to consider laziness to be a town tell for me because that's stupid, but I think it's telling that you're prepared to throw your vote around today on thin grounds. I mean you ask me where my fire is but you don't wait for a response before voting. You're either a sloppy villager or a frustrated wolf. I'm somewhat frustrated but not to the point of fuck it lynch whoever. You're not looking like a villager here.
My problem with your "end it" comment is it gives me the impression that you expect a doober lynch to end the game. Now why would you think that?
I've spent hours on this thread, and to hear people just flat out saying they're not going to play for the majority of the game-day pisses me off. I've tried to make that clear.
My vote on dhubs is spazzy, sure, but not unwarranted.
I don't like your answers so I bolded you. What's spazzy about that? You do it all the time.
I think you're as likely to be a wolf as dhubs right now, so I don't feel my vote on you is unwarranted. Your role in sinking 2 for 2 was a great start, but there's strong reason to think that the wolves wanted to sink 2 in 2 (at least by the time rilla started posting). This is evident in that rilla literally hung himself and nothing else this game.
So no one's roll in rilla death is worth any V-cred, the way I see it.
What if what keith was right about was his ong-wolf theory? That would sure as hell scare ong-wolf into nomming keith. We all know keith doesn't give up a target easily.
Is this incriminating? idk
Daven confirming the baud timing tell is scary to any wolf-pack.. so idk.
Was JKDS 2 swings and 2 misses this game? idk.
I thought there was a high liklihood of W-W or V-V on day 1. idk
Is there anything after the rilla vote that you think gives you villager cred, ong?
JKDS made a long stream of posts when he was getting votes on day 2.
This culminates with this post #398
He came down on the right side of rilla, and calls out ong.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Here's JKDS post #411, his final post before the vote shifted to rilla.
says dhubs is almost certainly V.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Also names Hoopy, Luco, and me as a group... looks nice for hoopy.
#441 after the rilla lynch
JKDS doesn't like keybored.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
#450
JKDS is pretty certain dhubs is a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
still hatin' on ong and keybored.
Well let's see... I was on two wolf wagons, wasn't on two mislynch wagons, and then there's the luco kill which is probably the worst kill ongwolf can make. I actually think I'd have been better off missing and leaving luco alive, seeing as he was my only friend at one point.Quote:
Is there anything after the rilla vote that you think gives you villager cred, ong?
You're pointing to jkds' posts where he has bad things to say about me. That's great. How about the bits where he comes down on you? How about the bits where he says I'm a villager? Nah you'll leave that out because it doesn't suit your agenda. Rather like pointing to your rilla vote in your defence while suggesting I'm a wolf despite choosing baudib over keith.
I've put hours of work in too. I don't expect people to put their social lives or whatever on hold just for an internet game. I'm certainly not going to.Quote:
I've spent hours on this thread, and to hear people just flat out saying they're not going to play for the majority of the game-day pisses me off. I've tried to make that clear.
I think you're feigning frustration here. This doesn't feel right at all. I don't see anyone else complaining about low activity on a weekend. You must be wolfing here mojo.
I commend everyone's effort in this match. Although some of you may not believe so, I have put in effort as well. The simple fact is some combination of (A) I don't have the ability that most or all of you have, and (B) I've already read the thread completely once.. have browsed over it a couple of other times, and start getting a headache whenever I (imo) over-analyze things.
I'm comfortable with my reads right now that Ong/Keybored are the final two wolves. That's as good as I can do considering my ability. I'm confident that I've done the best I can do, am also confident that other players are better at soul-reading, and if it turns out I'm right great, and if not, well... I won't be the first WW player to be incorrect.
As far as I can see, there's no "100% lock" for wolf in this bunch. Everyone has clearing and damning info for or against. If this were my first WW match, I may have tended more on the side of obvious info that points to a player's culpability (which may exist), but I don't see it. And if I don't see it, then there's really no other player who's going to convince me otherwise so I have to vote what I believe. Keybored, Ong, and MMM... in that order, are who I would vote to lynch during this Day cycle.
I'm very interested in seeing the dead thread once this is over and analyzing the better players' opinions there as well to see which players were correct/incorrect in their assumptions, which I'm sure there are plenty of. For what it's worth, I think MMM's, Keybored's and any other player's insistence that we work hard on this is valid, but at some point the analyzing gets all confused on my end and I'm much more comfortable going with my initial reads, known info and the JKDS psych-out reactions.
I'm doing my best, but also have to work and enjoy the weekend like everyone else. If I felt the extra analysis actually moved me toward a more solid conclusion, that would make me enjoy it. But it's not... it's just confusing me more. So however this match turns out, gg to all and I enjoyed playing in it and look forward to playing in future matches if I'm invited.
So I'm going over vote data and I came upon a slip. I don't know how important it is but I think it should be mentioned. I'd like to know what others think. On D2, we voted to lynch Rilla. Quoted below are BIDs only two votes that day. His first nom is Keybored:
In BID's second vote, he votes to RESCIND ONG...then votes Rilla:Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
BID was sitting on a KB nom but said rescind Ong.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I've analyzed every single vote cast on each day and this is the only slip I've found.
Obv, he'll claim that Ong was clearly on his mind.
But nobody else has made this mistake in the nearly 100 votes cast to date.
Does this slip mean anything?
Hoops...do you honestly believe two noobs are pulling this off? I understand poking one of us at a time to gain info. If it's a poke, it's elementary and you're clearly more capable. This conclusion has me questioning your entire game now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
Make a case on anyone, ong. Quit lurking. Quit reacting.
I'm not directly calling you out other than your lack of detective work... but you're here in the thread... so why are you just reacting to me?
I'm assembling info that JKDS said in the light that he's a villager and pulling out bits that seems to summarize his positions. If you disagree with my assemblage, then show me a better assemblage or criticize why the quote is not a good summary of JKDS's point.
Make a solid case that I can back on anyone, W or V.
If it's a solid enough case, I'll def. come off you.
Also, do you think that a wolf ever whips people to get involved with their own opinions and analysis like I am?
I don't personally think it's role-indicative, but I'm not the best at reading that stuff.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
Looking back at the first half of the thread (up to 525) Luco believed in ongville strongly at this point.
Keybored is dropping long, referenced posts and asking questions.
I'd say the most likely pair is hoopy/BID.
BID looks bad in all kinds of ways. None of the kudos he's received have been role-related. Increased involvement and "because he didn't care before, but now he does" could well be wolfy from BID.
hoopy looks terrible in the first few pages up to the rilla vote.
hoopy/BID makes sense if the wolves wanted to drop rilla.
hoopy's most potent claim to V-status came from confirmed villagers reading the rilla vote as villager lead.
***
It could well be that my problem with ong is that one one hand, ong found 2 wolves, so I want to see his power return. On the other hand, it was a team effort that brought down baudib (ong was on the team , fersher), and rilla played wolf as wolf.
rescind ong
Here's the entire vote breakdown. Voter first, Votee(s) next. Voter names are listed in the chrono order they voted. I.e., d1 first to vote was Ong and last to vote was Luco. Last votee to right of each voter is their counted vote. *name* is lynch vote.
DAY1 (BAUDIB LYNCH) DAY2 (RILLA LYNCH)
ONG = BAUD, KEITH, BAUD, KEITH, BAUD BID= KEYB, RILLA
JKDS= BAUD, ONG DHUB= ONG
BAUD= DAVEN, DHUBER, ONG ONG= RILLA, JKDS, *RILLA*
MMM= KEYB, KEYB, LUCO, *BAUDIB* GABE= KEYB
DHUB= KEYB, KEITH, ONG KEYB= GABE, HOOPY, JKDS, DHUBER
GABE= DHUBER, BAUDIB MMM= ONG, RILLA
KEYB= BAUDIB, JKDS RILLA= DHUBER
HOOP= BID, KEITH, (no vote) LUCO= RILLA, JKDS, RILLA
KEITH= BID DAVN= JKDS
DAVN= BAUDIB JKDS= ONG
BID= ONG HOOP= RILLA
RILLA= BAUDIB, KEITH
LUCO= KEITH
DAY3 (GABE LYNCH) DAY4 (JKDS LYNCH)
BID= ONG, DHUB, ONG, *GABE* DHUB= ONG, JKDS, MMM, *JKDS*
JKDS= ONG ONG= JKDS, MMM
MMM= ONG, DHUB, GABE MMM= JKDS
ONG= JKDS, GABE, JKDS KEYB= MMM, DHUB, JKDS
DHUB= ONG, ONG JKDS= MMM
KEYB= MMM, DHUB, GABE, JKDS, GABE HOOP= DHUB, JKDS
LUCO= JKDS, DHUB, GABE, JKDS, GABE BID= DHUB
HOOP= GABE
GABE= ONG
__________________________________________________ ________________________
KEYB = BAUD, JKDS / GABE, HOOPY, JKDS, DHUB / MMM, DHUB, GABE, JKDS, GABE / MMM, DHUB, JKDS
ONG = BAUD, KEITH, BAUD, KEITH, BAUD / RILLA, JKDS, RILLA / JKDS, GABE, JKDS / JKDS, MMM
MMM = KEYB, KEYB, LUCO, BAUD / ONG, RILLA / ONG, DHUBER, GABE / JKDS
DHUB = KEYB, KEITH, ONG / ONG / ONG, ONG / ONG, JKDS, MMM, JKDS
BID = ONG / KEYB, RILLA / ONG, DHUBER, ONG, GABE / DHUBER
HOOP = BID, KEITH / RILLA / GABE / DHUBER, JKDS
Here are some numbers pulled from this affecting the living:
ONG = 13 votes cast, 6 diff ppl, 2/4 accuracy, 1 lunch vote, has rcvd 10 votes, 3/5 still alive have hit him
DHUB = 10 votes cast, 5 diff ppl, 1/4 accuracy, 1 lunch vote, has rcvd 7 votes, 4/5 still alive have hit him
KEYB = 14 votes cast, 6 diff ppl, 2/4 accuracy, has rcvd 4 votes, 3/5 still alive have hit him
MMM = 10 votes cast, 8 diff ppl, 4/4 accuracy, 1 lunch vote, has rcvd 4 votes, 3/5 still alive have hit him
HOOP = 6 votes cast, 6 diff ppl, 3/4 accuracy, has rcvd 1 vote, 1/5 still alive have hit him
BID = 8 votes cast, 5 diff ppl, 2/4 accuracy, 1 lunch vote, has rcvd 1 vote, 1/5 still alive has hit him
Strangely, all lynch voters are still alive and spread out.
KEYB is most prolific voter, has received only 4 votes all game, but been nomd by 3 of the living.
ONG has highest votes against, been nomd by 3 of the living.
MMM spreads it around, nomd 8 diff ppl in 10 votes, is 100% accurate, has low votes against, 3 living hits.
DHUBER is least accurate 25%, but 80% of the living have nomd him, voted Ong 5x or half his votes.
BID is a low voter, also spreads, nomd 5 diff ppl w/8 votes, has only been voted on once, by Hoopy.
HOOPY is lowest voter and hit a diff person every time, very accurate voter, voted on only once by Keyb.
Here are some questions I have:
-How has MMM been so deadly accurate with his votes? He's that good or don't use votes to hunt.
-How has Hoopy voted so near-perfectly with merely 6 votes? Same as above.
-Why has Dhuber voted so heavily against Ong but sits on me on this important day?
-Is a 100% vote accuracy (MMM) a wolf track or is a 1/4 accuracy (Dhuber) a tell?
-How has BID/Hoopy only gotten 1 vote each? Are they that V or just low key?
-Is there something to be gleaned from who voted for/against whom?
---MMM hasn't voted for Hoopy or BID and he's never been voted against by Hoopy or BID.
---Dhub hasn't voted for Hoopy or BID and he's never been voted against by Ong.
---Ong hasn't voted for Keyb, Hoop, BID, Dhuber and he's never been voted against by Keyb or Hoop.
---BID hasn't voted for MMM or Hoop and he's never been voted against by Ong, Dhuber, Keyb, MMM.
---Keyb hasn't voted for Ong or BID and he's never been voted against by Ong or Hoopy.
---Hoopy hasn't voted for Ong, Keyb, or MMM and he's never been voted against by Ong, Hoop, BID, MMM.
The wolf pair, acting as a team (presumably), are in this data somewhere...
^^ Crap...sorry the formatting didn't work on the Day 1-4 columns. You'll have to use the "equal" sign to distinguish betw days.
Fixed columns without editing (I'm a little Mod-shy)...sorry to blow up your monitor! Disregard the one above.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
I feel like I've already gone through the ringer about each of my votes. If you have a specific question, I'll take it.Quote:
Originally Posted by keybored
This is my 4th game.
Use any means you find to hunt.
My gut says that it's the story that you have to find; part of the story is the votes.
lynch MMM
TbhQuote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
I get a boner for being the nail in the wolf coffin.
It's a high risk high reward sort of thinking.
Sometimes, whrn I'm a villager, it backfires.
This is exactly why it's awesome though.
I had MMM as a lock villager. But he's been crazy recently.
I don't want spastic players on my team, whether it's a wolf team or a village team. I swear to jesus I thought he was 100% village. Then he went crazy.
Oh yeah. And F dhubermex
I'm gonna give BID a drunk-lean for those last few outbursts.
All of them have something that indicates they aren't wolves. I shouldn't have said cleared.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
You two though, I can't find a reason why you aren't wolves.
New yes, incapable of pulling this off no. Both of you are obviously switched on, especially you with the amount of effort you've put in.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
It's about 3 hours from the end of day 2 and JKDS is looking like the lynch of the day. Him dying is great for the wolves as he's usually a very good villager. Suddenly 1 wolf thinks it'd be a good idea to push hard for his teammate and votes, then encourages others to do the same. The last wolf hops on 20mins later and now a wolf gets lynched rather than a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
How does this make any sense? What possible benefit do the wolves get?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
If we get this lynch wrong we are relying on the angels to save the game for us.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
MMM is not a good lynch today.
[QUOTE=Hoopy;2214601]New yes, incapable of pulling this off no.QUOTE]Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
I get it now, Hoopy...It's village clearing time. I happen to agree that the chances are high of a noob wolf in the last two. Hence my pressure on Dhubs for so long now. However, consider this. I'm not afraid of being lynched early if it helps advance the effort but I think it's too late in the game to be making sacrifices instead of making sound decisions. So, if u insist on cleaning house, choose very carefully cuz indeed we cannot afford a mislynch. Also, don't let your strategy distract you from hunting BOTH wolves. If you see one and it looks/feels right, then take the higher percentage shot. Cheers, mate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
I feel like this is an appeal to paranoia. This is not long after I suggest if hoopy is a wolf then drew is his buddy.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
You ask for cases from me, where's your case on hoopy/drew? You say they look awful blah blah. That's not a case. That's rhetoric.
mojo > doobs > drew > keyb > hoopy
Last night I was refreshing the page maybe once every two hours while I watched shit on tv. I was responding to you because you were online too but I wasn't reading the thread or anything, nor was this game high up on my priority list yesterday. Today is different. I have poker and ww, that's my sunday.Quote:
I'm not directly calling you out other than your lack of detective work... but you're here in the thread... so why are you just reacting to me?
Ok this is the numbers spazz from mojo -
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Ok first of all it makes no sense for a villager to think the dead thread has 6 to choose from. It does make sense for a wolf to see 6 villagers. This can be a pov slip.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
What's really interesting is he goes on to explain that the reason he got 6 was because he was considering our flips. Not only does this feel a little weird (why does he forget to consider the two most dominant players at this point of the game), but does this not imply that he's expecting two villager flips? Why would he expect both of our flips otherwise? If either of us flip wolf, the other doesn't get lynched. It's like he's expecting one to flip villager and then the other one to get lynched afterwards.
This looks really bad to me.
I've been reading through from p10 and basically I think it's mojo-doobs.
This was doobs starting the day yesterday after luco flipped villager. Doesn't stop to consider if I kill luco, doesn't stop to consider if he's wrong about me after being wrong about luco. This is very much charachteristic of doob's whole game. Refuses to move from early game reads based on gut.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
35 posts later he turns up and backs off, saying he needs to go back and reconsider based on luco flip. drew accuses him of using lots of words to say very little.
hoopy starts to turn on doober, and doober suddenly changes his tune and starts digging properly.
After reading through, he now thinks I'm golden and wants jkds strung up. When jkds flips villager, doobs turns on me again.
He says my reaction to jkds arroing is fake. Well as it happens, I think if I'm a wolf, what I'd actually do is start digging around under the assumption jkds is wolf, which is precisely what doobs and mojo did. Those are the two reactions I consider "forced".
Yup. mojo-doobs.
Taking a break, back in an hour or two.
It would have been an appeal to paranoia if that was the whole post, but it wasnt. I posted an outline of why my thoughts were leaning that way.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I said I've re-read up to post 525. I left my thoughts on what it looks like at that point. "looking most likely" is not the same as making an accusation and if I did, then it would only have been based on info in 1/2 the thread, so it wouldn't be a good case.
This reactionary, in the moment, no history type of thoughts coming from you, ong, are what I find most concerning. I removed my bold from you because I don't have a good case for you, but you stink to me right now. Maybe the reason you stink is because you legit think I'm a wolf and don't want to engage my arguments. Or maybe it's because I'm missing something about you, and I need to give you space.
OK, you don't believe my explanation. It looks bad in the light of baud. I get that. Now make a story around it that makes sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
"Does this imply that he's expecting 2 villager flips"
It was a matter of me miscounting the living because I was just finishing spending a long time revising the way the numbers flow in that chart. I had screwed up a bunch of night actions as day actions and vise-versa, so I had to revise a lot and then double-check.
"Why would he expect both of our flips otherwise?"
I was not thinking of the correct living count, so there were so speculated flips in my head.
So you drop, "basically I think it's mojo-doobs" and that's somehow different from me saying, "hoopy/BID looks most likely"?
It's this kind of hypocrisy that makes me want to keep attention on you, ong.
I'm obv seeing yer Doob vision. But if MMM, then did the wolves in fact purposely kill 2 W's to start? I just can't get behind that strat with Rilla and MMM making the calls.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
On d1-d2, BID/Doob barely touched either wolf in voting. That's more like W's hiding vote pattern. D3, BID/Doob were all over Ong but couldn't close the deal. D4, BID gives a token Doob lynch vote and Doob casts the final mislynch JKDS vote. Today, BIDs gone off the reservation and Doobs posted his suicide note. And even if drunk last night, BID's F-doob comment is wrong on so many levels. I'm so sketchy about these two, it ain't funy.
The wolves get to drop daven without contest that night. The wolves can hide in the rilla lynch mob for cred.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
If the wolves decide to drop JKDS instead of rilla, there's a chance that rilla dies the next day anyway, but the wolves gave up sure control of the kill on daven.
Whoever the remaining wolves are, it looks like they have a good chance of riding the cred off the rilla kill for at least a game day if not 2 or more, which as we can now see, puts the village in a do-or-die scenario. Not completely, but the wolves are in a goodstrong position right now.
It's a gamble, but not even a bad one. The 2nd wolf dying on day 2 is easy to spin as "there's no way the wolves wanted that." Which I did. Many times. The convoluted fact that the dead control could have gone 2 ways messed me up, too. I would have def used the night angel saves differently if I was on the wolf team.
The revive was a near certainty in the early game UNLESS the GA saves are gone. So I was thinking that since the wolves weren't playing that way, that they hadn't thought it through to put 2 wolves in 2 nights to the dead thread. Now, though, it's perfectly possible that the wolves thought that there were only a handful of strong villagers in the mix, and that it would be far more beneficial to get the strong villagers out of the thread ASAP. Which might be a higher EV strat than otherwise, but they DO have to deal with the revive of presumably the strongest villager.
***
There's a way that it makes sense. Do you agree?
I want a serious answer to my "what is this" comment ong. (post #1027)
In one post, you call out JKDS for a "preemptive attack" being wolfy. Then in the other, you preemptively attack me.
What I find most strange is that you lump BID into it.
Why are you protecting BID?
Would vil-ong be so certain about BID that he'd protect him like this?
MMM...it's a huge leap of faith for the W's to drop 2 then, short handed, expect to take out monsters like Keith, Gabe, JKDS, Luco. Sure, they've dropped those dudes but no way they go all in with that hand on d1.
This post deserves another response.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I drop a post that seems to affirm your stance, here #1037
Explain why your paranoia points to hoopy/BID, but your logic avoids it. Perhaps it is me being paranoid.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Do you think that rilla's play was anything other than self-bussing?
Explain why your logic says it's me.
Explain why I'm a wolf who's begging people to stay involved and keep posting. Explain why any wolf benefits from calling people out to drop their thoughts and ask great questions.
Yes it's different, because I've been looking at you two for some time, while you throw hoopy-drew into the mix after I said that I think that if hoopy is a wolf drew would be his buddy.Quote:
So you drop, "basically I think it's mojo-doobs" and that's somehow different from me saying, "hoopy/BID looks most likely"?
It's this kind of hypocrisy that makes me want to keep attention on you, ong.
As for this...
A preemptive attack from jkds, I considered that wolfy due to the meta between us. He has a good understanding of my game, or at least he used to. I thought he anticipated me swinging for him to activity, and wanted to get the first punch in. I misread that situation, but I considered it wolfy from jkds because it was jkds incorrectly predicitng ong village bahaviour, suggesting either misread or ulterior motive. I considered the latter more likely in jkds' case.Quote:
In one post, you call out JKDS for a "preemptive attack" being wolfy. Then in the other, you preemptively attack me.
That's a million miles away from suggesting you're preparing to attack me. I was making an observation there, hardly the same as a what I felt at the time was a preemptive attack like what jkds threw at me.
I'm not protecting drew, again I'm merely making an observation. It felt to me at the time like you had your targets in mind already, which funnily enough is similar to the line doobs has taken most of this game.Quote:
What I find most strange is that you lump BID into it.
Why are you protecting BID?
Would vil-ong be so certain about BID that he'd protect him like this?
Ooh more questions, you're doing a great job of trying to look like a busy villager, you're asking faster than I can answer.
hoopy didn't save baudib d1, did lynch rilla d2. Yes he can be a wolf but there's more reason for him to be a villager than anyone imo.Quote:
Explain why your paranoia points to hoopy/BID, but your logic avoids it. Perhaps it is me being paranoid.
Logic tells me that hoopy isn't a wolf. Paranoia on the other hand has me thinking that maybe it could've been a plan, but if it was a plan I think it's one that works because I'm not lynching hoopy today, and probably not drew.
rilla's play was standard rilla wolf. He did this when we got owned by cbee. Hoops and gizmo got fucked, I faked seer, leaving rilla on his own to fly under the radar and then throw in the towel in endgame. I don't recall rilla asking to be thrown under the bus that game, but it's possible he's done it this game. Certainly once he gets found out, I think the wolves accept his demise and as such I'm not taking a great deal from the votes. Hoopy looks good because not only did he turn on rilla, he didn't lynch me to save baudib. He could've.Quote:
Do you think that rilla's play was anything other than self-bussing?
Well the main reason I'm refusing to beudge is that numbers spazz. I just don't see where that comes from if you're a villager. I'm not buying your explanation. I caught baudib with a slip like that, I think you fucked up too.Quote:
Explain why your logic says it's me.
Because a wolf does what he thinks he does as a villager.Quote:
Explain why I'm a wolf who's begging people to stay involved and keep posting. Explain why any wolf benefits from calling people out to drop their thoughts and ask great questions.
bid - mmm
key - dhubs
dhubs - key
nobody - mmm, ong, hoops
mmm - 1
dhubs - 1
key - 1 (lead)
Day 5 ends at 3:00PM PST tomorrow, 27 hours and 40 minutes from now
If the thread is any indication, no one had a solid understanding of the mechanics in the early part of day 1.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
You're right, it doesn't make sense to have been the plan for all of day 1. It seems to me that none of rilla's posts look villagery. So the wolf decision to take the gambit of killing the 2nd wolf may not have been made early day 1. It could have been something the wolves gradually latched on to as the baud wagon seemed to be gaining momentum, and the game mechanics were coming to be more understood.
The result of the 2 dead wolves:
Keith and Daven are nommed without contest.
BONUS:
Gabe is assumed to be dead by day 3 or 4 (latest).
Ong/JKDS were in the heat of it and it looks like at least 1 of them has to go.
If both JKDS/ong are villagers, then the wolves can be fairly assured that they can kill off 1 if not both of them with lynches.
:/
That basically clears ong in the baud exchange, because ong shined the light on the information that keith and daven used for their arguments.
Double shit.
If the wolves want to drop rilla, then why is ong so hard on JKDS, and why is ong so late to swing back to rilla?
Ongville making sense in early game.
Wait... By this theory... ong is cleared.
Shit.
If ong is a wolf, his initial argument against baud would have lacked teeth. It would have been something weak that he could point back to as, "I wasn't sure, but now I'm sure". It wouldn't be something that keith and daven can nuke.
***
OK. I need to do another full read.
Holes in this post?
ong convincing me more with his most recent post.
@MMM...If the thread is any indication, no one had a solid understanding of the mechanics in the early part of day 1.
True. But, for us villagers, there wasn't a pressing need to comprehend the entire process. As seen, we just did our normal d1 thing, and poked around at the game mechanics as things popped up. The wolves, however, needed to know exactly how that mess would factor into their strategy ASAP cuz once one of them gets lynched, they all need to be working from the same rule book (dead thread and game thread alike). So they had only the beginning of d1 to get a grip on mechanics, determine a strategy, and put it to work so it'd be effective. That's why the determination of Rilla's late arrival is important. Was he afk or was he masterminding and planning?
@MMM...You're right, it doesn't make sense to have been the plan for all of day 1. It seems to me that none of rilla's posts look villagery. So the wolf decision to take the gambit of killing the 2nd wolf may not have been made early day 1. It could have been something the wolves gradually latched on to as the baud wagon seemed to be gaining momentum, and the game mechanics were coming to be more understood.
I agree that Rilla self lynched. And I think he truly was afk in the beginning cuz he's quite capable of planning while playing along. So, as I've said, Rilla showed up late, scoffed at drawing wolf, poo-poo'd the game makeup, then read the thread with Baud's foolish d1 too far gone to fix it. After that, I can't figure out what happened. Did Rilla et al make a master plan that involved a Rilla death or did he just say fuckit, I'll catch the next game? Thing is, if Rilla's death was the plan, why'd he do it so terribly? Or was that meant to throw us off? If he just didn't give a fuck, how does he bail on his team? Anyway, that's where my d1-d2 reasoning hits a dead end. Thus, I'm going on gut and thinking there's no way a wolf strat involves two dead and roll with 2v11.
The voting at the end of day 3 looks bad for BID.
#658 (2:23)
#659 (2:28)Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
#660 (2:35)Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
The timing of BID's vote on gabe looks wolfy as anything in the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
By all appearances, BID's vote effectively cuts off gabe from placing a final reads post as a dying villager.
I'd forgotten bout this post.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Does a wolf ever post this?
In case it's not apparent, I'm continuing my read-through to current before I start again. So my promise of a re-read is simply on priority of completing my ongoing re-read. It's exactly reasons like this that I'm so mad at posters saying they're not going to participate for the majority of the game day.
By the time of rilla's death if not before the end of day 1, the wolves had a plan for rilla's death. It may not have been their plan A, but they certainly got a less-than-usual hit to their team's strength for the loss.Quote:
Originally Posted by keybored
It's also worth noting that the wolves started this game with an extra member, so normally losing 2 on the first 2 days would mean lone-wolf has to play perfect to win. In this game, the wolves can lose 2 wolves in 2 days and still have 2 wolves left alive. The added mayhem of the first 2 days' votes is def. going to buy the remaining wolves some breathing room, especially if they can pull cred. from the lynch votes.
Terrribly... or perfectly? If the wolves wanted to direct the villager's target to rilla, it worked. It would work again, every time.Quote:
Originally Posted by keybored
I mean: rilla would have to do this as a villager in the next couple of games before the meta was absorbed by the group. It makes no sense to do this as a wolf before the meta is in everyone's mind.
He bails on his team by sending wuf a PM that says, "I'm not going to play; please find an alternate."Quote:
Originally Posted by keybored
He does not bail on his team by hanging himself without a big picture idea that he's going off of.
This spins my head.
#702: Luco drops this comment about how dhubs is a villager, but capable of much more.
Is this true? Did dhubs bink 2 wolves day 1 last game? Is this what dhubs is capable of as a villager?Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
@dhubs: Why were you on ong for so long? Why are you on keybored now?
***
I can't see anything but villager from keybored. I agree, he starts soft, then ramps up his game, but it strikes me that a lot of quality players take this approach.
He's putting original thought into the thread, not just following the flow of trends (which is BID's pronounced strategy in this game). He is digging up information on players and compiling it into posts so we can all benefit from his dig. He is engaged with people, asking and answering questions.
Mostly, I feel like his posts are 'genuine'. I feel like I see where he's coming from, and it doesn't feel forced.
***
@Anyone who thinks keybored is wolfy:
Do you disagree that these activities are pro-village?
Or do you disagree that keybored is honestly and genuinely doing these things?
If the latter: What posts of his seem dishonest or disingenuous?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I'm cool with ppl having lives and don't place any neg value on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
But BID said 1 thing and did another here.
No explanation, no references. Just a vote. And he's tilted off axis about something.
Dhuber posted a cray-cray letter and has said Adios Amigos.
BID/Dhuber could easily be the wolf team and I see this BID activity as a clear diversionary tactic.
And now that the game's getting down/dirty, I easily see them getting frustrated and/or giving up.
MMM & Ong are having what I see as two very strong players battling it out, truly interested in winning.
I also think they're both on the same team (V) but see the game thru different eyes.
Hoopy is lock village.
But who knows, there's a bit of time left for other inputs.
I really don't think so. I think hoopy claimed false cred on rilla. I think hoopy/BID is the final pair.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
I just finished my read through, and ong is almost def. village. So are you, key.
dhubs is such a long shot at being a wolf. Seriously long shot. I doubt it very much.
Hoopy/BID is my pick for wolf team.
***
Consider this a warning shot across the bow.
First things first: the rilla vote.
The wolves decide at some point to drop rilla.
They do the math, and even with me sitting there, they need 1 more vote to make it happen.
Hoopy votes and ralies Luco, who joins in and bolds rilla.
Now BID jumps on and puts rilla down.
Buying cred for both hoopy and BID. Cred that's lasted 2 days and even has sway today, since I have to show how it's fake cred.
I do believe that the wolves intended to drop rilla as I've stated and supported a few times. I've at least attempted to expose that it's not only possible, but also likely that the rilla vote was ultimately a wolf-lead ordeal.
Hummm...I've always suspected a sleeper wolf at large and thought my money was good on Dhuber. Hoopy's never been on my radar as wolf; could be the sleeper tho. A Hoopy/BID combo? Could explain why the wolf team has succeeded so well. Wonder what they have to say...Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
#543
This is part of a larger discussion with Luco about some comments baud made.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
It's a strangely casual response and wording for BID to use in the context of the discussion.
I feel like if mojo is a wolf he's forced to attack whoever isn't his buddy out of doobs and keybored, ie someone who might get lynched. It strikes me as illogical to hope for a mislynch in hoopy-drew. wtf is going on if mojo isn't a wolf?
For reference: #560
***Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
#572
#1041Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
What has happened that has changed your mind, hoopy?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
Indeed.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Thinking about it more the wolves probably knew that baudib wasn't getting modkilled, because wuf is an easy going mod. So I don't think JKDS's argument is as sound.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Why? Give me a reason.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
If they wanted to drop rilla they would have started that plan in motion earlier in the day, not waited until the end of day and relied on a villager jumping on. And why would the wolves want to lose another team member on day 2 just for some credit.
No I don't, you're trying to make a complex explanation fit when a simple one works just fine. I keep saying that dead thread control isn't that important compared to keeping wolf numbers up.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
lynch dhubermex
Maybe I'm wrong on keybored, that's for tomorrow though.
Not shifting from dhuber today.
Please explain to me your simple explanation. I'm open to change my mind, if you have a good story.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
see my post #1081 and critiqueQuote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy