**** Elections thread *****

People dont hate trump for wanting to deport illegals or for being anti-amnesty. They hate him for being racist about it, and for wanting to build a wall.

Most thinking people dont think a wall will work, and dont think its worth the cost. Whats next, do we set up guard towers on the ends so no one can come in through the gulf or the pacific? Do we have our aircraft carriers start patrolling nonstop the shores, and plant deep sea mines to stop immigrant submarines? What about the much longer Canadian border? Couldnt an illegal fly to Canada, then just drive in? Even if we built the great wall of Mexico, are we willing to pay through the nose to ensure its properly staffed and guarded? (Remember, the White House is apparently strapped for cash as idiots keep storming their front lawn, unchecked).

As to whether hes actually racist or not, who knows. His comment early about how theyre all "rapists and theives" is not gonna go away, regardless of whether that was just a ratings grab.

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Originally Posted by boost

Rilla:

Your stance on argument makes me think you'd love this podcast called "The Great Debates". It's a debate show, but the topics are often absurd, and even when they are pretty mundane, they take debate tactics to a humorously absurd extreme. It's pretty much a satire of argument.

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I listened to one with John Mayer where they argued about Trump and truckers. It was pretty funny. I wish they would prepare for the arguments ahead of time. While it's funny to hear them reach on the spot, it'd be great if they could do some ground work and pull some real haymakers out of no where.

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Originally Posted by JKDS

People dont hate trump for wanting to deport illegals or for being anti-amnesty. They hate him for being racist about it, and for wanting to build a wall.

As to whether hes actually racist or not, who knows. His comment early about how theyre all "rapists and theives" is not gonna go away, regardless of whether that was just a ratings grab.

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my gut says the comment (and many like it) don't hurt him for the reason you implied in the bolded.

contrast this to the legitimate rape guy. he said the body has a way of shutting down a baby from being raped, and the important part of this is that he believed it and it's wrong. with trump, people think he doesn't exactly believe it.


as for the wall, i feel like it is reasonable to think that it's reasonable to have an area where illegal activity is taking place be dealt with. it's no panacea tho

so trump said some really nice things about putin. the media hates it and calls trump a stupid doofus. i cant help but imagine that this is an easy to spot example of trump playing chess while everybody else plays checkers. if you're looking to be in a position of negotiating power with somebody, you don't talk down to them. outrage journalism constantly plays level 1 werewolf and nothing else.

A wall has worked wonders in plenty of other parts of the world. It's ridiculous to write off its effectiveness here.

Lemme ask you. What's the wall gonna do? Not guards, not cameras, the wall itself. How does it stop immigration better than say increasing border patrol? Than increasing border surveillance? We don't exactly have mad max style caravans charging our gates and running rampant, we're talking desperate people willing to hike through the desert and most likely die before they even get here. How's the wall stop tunnels? How's it stop boats? All a wall will do is provide a tangible showing of control when the non tangible would be far better and cheaper.

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Originally Posted by JKDS

Lemme ask you. What's the wall gonna do? Not guards, not cameras, the wall itself. How does it stop immigration better than say increasing border patrol? Than increasing border surveillance? We don't exactly have mad max style caravans charging our gates and running rampant, we're talking desperate people willing to hike through the desert and most likely die before they even get here. How's the wall stop tunnels? How's it stop boats? All a wall will do is provide a tangible showing of control when the non tangible would be far better and cheaper.

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Yeah you're right. It didn't help at all in Israel: "While 9,570 citizens of various African countries entered Israel illegally in the first half of 2012, only 34 did the same in the first six months of 2013, after construction of the main section of the barrier was completed." That's a reduction of over 99.5 percent.

People are willing to die to illegally immigrate to the United States. So what? Plenty of people are willing to die to commit other crimes. That doesn't mean we should make it easier for them to commit those crimes.

Also, trying to represent a wall as the only thing that would be done in an overall plan to stop illegal immigration, like you're doing with all of your "How does it stop _______?" questions is ridiculous. It's like you think we're just going to stop having border patrol or cameras and sensors at the border and on the beaches close to the border.

And to be clear, what's proposed is not strictly a wall in the sense of the Great Wall of China where it's just one long-ass, tall-ass wall. What's proposed is broken up into several sections, some of which are big-ass walls, and some of which are covered by border patrol agents with better preventative equipment than what they have now. All of those questions you asked are a part of the fucking plan for the wall. Jesus Christ.

So many people have opinions about this shit when they have no idea what they are talking about, and it would be hilarious if it wasn't so sad.

You know what I'm tired of hearing from any Republican? XYZ is "not serious". As a bit of rhetoric, this one should have been retired about 2 years ago, but the old guard will not let go.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/16/politi...-trump-debate/

Hilary is powerplaying the Bern out of the election. Girl is a pure [strikethru]leader[/strikethru] operator that even Putin doesn't want to square off with.

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Yeah you're right. It didn't help at all in Israel: "While 9,570 citizens of various African countries entered Israel illegally in the first half of 2012, only 34 did the same in the first six months of 2013, after construction of the main section of the barrier was completed."

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Next you'll argue for the UK's gun contol policy. Our immigration is different than isreal's, and I think I've already done a good job explaining why. Please, continue to ignore it while calling me ignorant.

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Also, trying to represent a wall as the only thing that would be done in an overall plan to stop illegal immigration, like you're doing with all of your "How does it stop _______?" questions is ridiculous. It's like you think we're just going to stop having border patrol or cameras and sensors at the border and on the beaches close to the border.

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You missed the point. I'm not saying a wall is all that would be done. I'm asking you how it would improve security more than simply putting up cameras, having more guards, or any other method beyond what us no longer being called a "fence". A wall itself does absolute dick, and would do nothing to stop illegal entry into the US.
Nows probably a good time to discuss how many illegals don't even enter from the mexico-us border at all. So sad, please. [/QUOTE]

when serious people (hi rilla) say "wall", they're using it partly as shorthand. not that many people think it's just constructing a physical barrier then being done with it.

that said, i probably don't support a wall. first off, it seems that the laws are already on the books that allow for more than enough border security, but the federal government doesn't do its duty and actively deters the border states' attempts as well.

that aside, i do not like the message a wall says about the direction we're taking. its protectionism and a denial of the cause of the problems in the first place. if instead of keeping latin americans out of the country, we stopped the drug war, we wouldn't have the border problem in the first place and the relationships of both countries would improve far more than by border security.

reagan wasn't wrong when he said we need open borders with mexico. people have forgotten this because they haven't seen that the drug war has changed the equation.

it should also be noted that the democratic establishment does not want any deterrence of importation of undocumented residents. it helps them greatly, electorally and it helps prop up the welfare state. plus it's the current left's version of the white savior complex.

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/S.../06/id/388502/

Just guess how many other "not serious" points I can find through the last 7+ years.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I listened to one with John Mayer where they argued about Trump and truckers. It was pretty funny. I wish they would prepare for the arguments ahead of time. While it's funny to hear them reach on the spot, it'd be great if they could do some ground work and pull some real haymakers out of no where.

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Hey they argued Christmas and it was good.

"I just wish Christmas could evolve into something we could all share."
"That's absurd."

Now we're cooking with oil.

edit Alright, they're not that good.

llllllloooooooooolllllllll

https://www.instagram.com/p/_VgZCZutWq/

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Hey they argued Christmas and it was good.

"I just wish Christmas could evolve into something we could all share."
"That's absurd."

Now we're cooking with oil.

edit Alright, they're not that good.

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Haha.. I like the unpreparedness. I guess I enjoy the off the cuff unpolished nature of the show. The humor ends up being kind of subtle and more along the lines of a comical hang out with friends.

It also is a great way to train your brain to pick up on poor rhetoric and argumentative tricks without having to watch two people who are seriously trying to persuade listeners with these insubstantial tactics.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Hilary is powerplaying the Bern out of the election. Girl is a pure [strikethru]leader[/strikethru] operator that even Putin doesn't want to square off with.

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I'm not sure how I feel about giving her credit for this-- I mean, maybe, but it seems more likely that it's the big money that backs the party trying to rig the race in their horse's favor.

Also, are you just impressed by the political maneuvering, or are you actually cheer leading this angle shooting?

I wish I could find some Diane Rehm episodes where they bring on lawyer types that brutalize each other, but I've seen some great shit on that talk show. You can really find yourself spun around by great debaters, and I'd love to find that in an arena arguing over Santa or whatnot.

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Originally Posted by boost

I'm not sure how I feel about giving her credit for this-- I mean, maybe, but it seems more likely that it's the big money that backs the party trying to rig the race in their horse's favor.

Also, are you just impressed by the political maneuvering, or are you actually cheer leading this angle shooting?

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In 2017, Hilary Clinton will be president. I'm just enjoying the ride.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

In 2017, Hilary Clinton will be president. I'm just enjoying the ride.

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Right, but is that really your preference? Like, I don't think I disagree with you, and I do appreciate the spectacle of expert level political maneuvering, but I also don't want to see a Clinton presidency.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

In 2017, Hilary Clinton will be president. I'm just enjoying the ride.

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she aint. she aint she aint she aint.

using every element of conventional wisdom i know of, the belief that she's a favorite to win arises from the idea of demographic determinism. lucky for us, the idea of demographic determinism is total nonsense.

why do you think she's going to win?

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Originally Posted by boost

Right, but is that really your preference? Like, I don't think I disagree with you, and I do appreciate the spectacle of expert level political maneuvering, but I also don't want to see a Clinton presidency.

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No, it's not my preference. But who am I and what does it matter?

If I rubbed my magic lamp and a Genie popped out and granted me 3 presidents, I would have elected Barack in '08, and what did that manage? I would have elected Bush in '04 (I got swift boated), and I would have elected Bush in '00 (I was young and enraptured by conservative talk radio, plus Gore was a bitch as seen by his voterate retreat).

So at this point, I'm really enjoying Cruz because that guy has smart leaking out his sweat glands. I like Trump because he also represents a seismic threat to the old guard of the Rs. I like Bernie because he authentically speaks to my generation (my vegan friends are big fans and it's a lot of fun to pump up Trump infront of them), but odds are odds and those odds have got Hilary taking it all the way more often than not.

I'm not in the business of standing in the way of the inevitable.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

she aint. she aint she aint she aint.

using every element of conventional wisdom i know of, the belief that she's a favorite to win arises from the idea of demographic determinism. lucky for us, the idea of demographic determinism is total nonsense.

why do you think she's going to win?

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She's going to win the D ticket and chances are great that the nation shows up for a D president. Simple as that.

And you can fight me on this, today, in 2015. But I'll just bump this thread in 2017 and say, "I told you so".

Cool. I wasn't trying to attack you or anything, just was pretty sure you weren't a blind no-matter-what Clinton supporter. I like your stance. I find that I'm more and more pragmatic with every thought I process, no matter the topic.

With politics specifically, I've gotten excited for campaigns, I've felt the pang of supporting the loser, I've been let down by the winner I cheered for-- I'll vote, I'm not cynical, I'm not jaded, I am just pragmatic with my emotions and my bandwidth regarding outcomes I have no influence on.

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Originally Posted by boost

Cool. I wasn't trying to attack you or anything, just was pretty sure you weren't a blind no-matter-what Clinton supporter. I like your stance. I find that I'm more and more pragmatic with every thought I process.

I've gotten excited for campaigns, I've felt the pang of supporting the loser, I've been let down by the winner I cheered for-- I'll vote, I'm not cynical, I'm not jaded, I am just pragmatic with my emotions and my bandwidth regarding outcomes I have no influence on.

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Yeah, me too. Wish it didn't feel like such shit.

Where's Teddy Roosevelt when you need him?

http://i.imgur.com/PO8v6EV.jpg

Hot damn, do I recommend that Roosevelts docu on Netflix. This guy has a river named after him. In the Amazon. Rio Roosevelt. He almost died exploring it. He was like 55.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

And you can fight me on this, today, in 2015. But I'll just bump this thread in 2017 and say, "I told you so".

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i certainly hope you would.

anyways, the narrative that d's show up for national elections unlike they do for off-year elections is a little wrong. it's true that the off-year electorate is different than the presidential electorate, but it isn't true that it's different by a factor of d. a weak d and strong r will see the expanded electorate flow to the r just like it flowed to the d for obama.


i dont think it matters who the r's put up, i think hillary loses to them all. we'll see.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I like Bernie because he authentically speaks to my generation

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he does? i wonder about that

i know millennials think he speaks to millennials, but it feels much more to me like he "speaks to" the reality that his policies have made things so shitty for millennials, but we aren't listening.

i mean, you're right, millennials do think he speaks to what they want. there's just such a deep irony that the problems millennials think he's looking to solve are problems that have been created by the types of policies he supports in the first place. they complain about how much money they waste on college and how hard it is to get work without doing so, so they want bernie to come in and pay for it, yet they don't seem to realize that it's because of the government paying for it in the first place that has made them need to waste so much on college and made it so hard to get work otherwise.

i cringe whenever i hear somebody in one of my classes complain about how crappy the university functions then in the next breath wants bernie to pay for more of it. these people do not have the feintest clue of what causes or solves their problems.

sorry that's my rant. i have been incredibly jaded by the colossal amount of waste that is my college career. years of man-hour-energy wasted on a piece of paper that provides zero value other than demonstrating acceptance to the employment norms created by the flooding of money from the government into the universities. economic literacy ftw

o dat cruzy cruz

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3hB3iOQKjY

hmm guess i was wrong about why trump pulled back on cruz. it looks like trump was hurting his brand among conservatives by doing so.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...attack-on-cruz

"If you're not completely satisfied with this collection of Cruz Christmas Classics, you probably hate Christmas... and America"

Cruz you 'lil bitch.

they say ted cruz sucks because all his colleagues hate him. they say he sucks because he tried to shut down the government when all his colleagues thought doing so would lose votes. but then they crushed in the next voting cycle.

i say good. his colleagues are morons and shutting down the government is the lord's work. cruz is basically batman.

Canadian Cruz sucks ass

canadian club not so bad tho

i was wrong, bernie does speak to the generation of millennials. to their utter inability to understand the principles behind that which comes out of their mouths

https://i.imgur.com/2cmbtqP.jpg

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

i was wrong, bernie does speak to the generation of millennials. to their utter inability to understand the principles behind that which comes out of their mouths

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Yeah Bernie is just an asshole like the rest of them using a strategy that he thinks will win.

http://i.imgur.com/OJKHWFE.png

Also there are some really good ideas on http://www.hillaryclinton.net

So is Trump gonna blow the lid on the 9/11 bullshit? He's already taken a swipe at Bush for bending over backwards to help the bin Ladens escape while all other planes were grounded. Let's see how big his bollocks really are.

There's no saving you, Ong.

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Canadian Cruz sucks ass

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http://www.politico.com/story/2015/1...s-polls-217012

Can't wait to lol@you scrambling to explain Trump's losing this game.

if trump truly believes what he says and wants what he thinks would be best for the country, he's gonna want to drop out and endorse cruz after cruz wins iowa and trump takes second. this would give cruz >50% of the vote and the establishment would not get a guy through.

trump has to know that he could lose a general, but cruz aint losing no general. the dude is too fucking smooth. his message is always perfect, his strategy is perfect, he's the best debater in presidential history. he's just not fucking losing, especially not to the grinch who lost her emails

Cruz Trump is my jam.

trump will never accept vp

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“That same Republican-party establishment who thought it was a great idea to nominate a candidate who had designed and implemented a program just like Obamacare now thinks it’s a terrific idea to nominate a candidate who agrees with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on amnesty,” Cruz says. “If we do that — if the Republican nominee shares the very same views on amnesty for 12 million people that Hillary Clinton does — millions of working men and women will stay home, we will lose, and Hillary Clinton becomes the next president.”

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Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...rubio-moderate


He couldn't be more correct. This is a pretty cut and dried situation of the establishment just being wrong. As it has always been wrong. It probably has to do with how they all live in that hellhole echo chamber and lose sight of how things actually work.

a neophyte has designed rubio's strategy. waiting for nevada will gift christie the position of establishment frontrunner coming out of new hampshire.

it's gonna boil down to cruz vs christie.

there may be a shy tory effect with trump. it may not show up in iowa, but could show up in primaries. he could get as much or more support than his polls.

When they're not raping people, Muslims aren't so bad spoon...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35151967

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

i was wrong, bernie does speak to the generation of millennials. to their utter inability to understand the principles behind that which comes out of their mouths

https://i.imgur.com/2cmbtqP.jpg

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You could change the tweet to be about a bumper sticker being ripped off that featured any candidate and the point you're trying to make works essentially as well.

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Originally Posted by boost

You could change the tweet to be about a bumper sticker being ripped off that featured any candidate and the point you're trying to make works essentially as well.

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it certainly would. what makes this one extra special is there is one man in the race who makes his name off of the desire to greatly increase the amount of other peoples' stuff that is taken.

Who the fuck puts stickers on the outside of the car? Get one of those reverse sticky ones that go on the inside, otherwise you're just asking for some dick to rip it off.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

it certainly would. what makes this one extra special is there is one man in the race who makes his name off of the desire to greatly increase the amount of other peoples' stuff that is taken.

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Has he though? He's been vocal about increasing tax on the rich, but on the other hand wants to help the poor and revive the middle class. Where has he said that he wants to increase the overall collected taxes?

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/1...s-polls-217012

Can't wait to lol@you scrambling to explain Trump's losing this game.

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I know, I know. Cruz is ahead by like maybe 10 points in cherry-picked polls in one state, and everyone has to go ape shit and celebrate like he's already won. Trump is ahead by 20-25 points in front of several second-place candidates nation-wide, and no one thinks he can win.

It's like when you try to explain to a woman that men don't like fat, obnoxious women with short, blue hair and 20 piercings in her face, and she comes back with "Well actually, I knew this guy whose cousin's best friend's barber's ex-roommate actually preferred fat chicks, so you there."

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Q: Let's get specific. How high would you go on tax rates? You have said before you would go above 50%.
SANDERS: We haven't come up with an exact number yet

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Yeah okay. Let's just tax people at 90% while we're at it and see shit leave the country faster than it already has, Bernie. This isn't the fucking 1940s.

https://scontent-waw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net...de&oe=56D6F399

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I know, I know. Cruz is ahead by like maybe 10 points in cherry-picked polls in one state, and everyone has to go ape shit and celebrate like he's already won. Trump is ahead by 20-25 points in front of several second-place candidates nation-wide, and no one thinks he can win.

It's like when you try to explain to a woman that men don't like fat, obnoxious women with short, blue hair and 20 piercings in her face, and she comes back with "Well actually, I knew this guy whose cousin's best friend's barber's ex-roommate actually preferred fat chicks, so you there."

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Typical Trumpet. Doesn't know when he's getting played.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/1...n-polls-217046

"Of the Republican voters who watched the Dec. 15 debate, regardless of whom they plan to support, 40 percent said Cruz won, while just 20 percent thought Trump had done so"

"Trump's share remained essentially unchanged ... Cruz, meanwhile, shot up eight percentage points to 24 percent."

"Cruz commanded pluralities of support over Trump among those describing themselves as members of the tea party (38 percent to 27 percent) and white, born-again Evangelical Christians (33 percent to 22 percent). Cruz also led Trump among very conservative supporters (38 percent to 27 percent)"

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Typical Trumpet. Doesn't know when he's getting played.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/1...n-polls-217046

"Of the Republican voters who watched the Dec. 15 debate, regardless of whom they plan to support, 40 percent said Cruz won, while just 20 percent thought Trump had done so"

"Trump's share remained essentially unchanged ... Cruz, meanwhile, shot up eight percentage points to 24 percent."

"Cruz commanded pluralities of support over Trump among those describing themselves as members of the tea party (38 percent to 27 percent) and white, born-again Evangelical Christians (33 percent to 22 percent). Cruz also led Trump among very conservative supporters (38 percent to 27 percent)"

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I know, I know. Let's celebrate Canadian Cruz because he broke 15 percent in national polls. Keep riding his nuts until the next one comes along, just like everyone did with Bush, Fiorina and Carson before him.

Y'all keep lining them up, and Trump keeps mowing them down.

I re ad that trump is weak in debates, and the strategy is just not to lose. Something like the goal is to not get hurt, then crush later with speeches and media.

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Originally Posted by CoccoBill

Has he though? He's been vocal about increasing tax on the rich, but on the other hand wants to help the poor and revive the middle class. Where has he said that he wants to increase the overall collected taxes?

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nobody says they want to raise middle class taxes, at least not as explicitly as they do about the rich or corporations. regardless, it doesn't matter what he says about taxes, it matters what he says about policy, because that necessarily informs his implicit position on taxes. for example, when he wants universal college, he is implicitly endorsing a large increase in taxes on the non-rich because that's the only way to pay for it.

spoon's belief that politics is a joke is what he has most in common with his bestest buddy ong

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

spoon's belief that politics is a joke is what he has most in common with his bestest buddy ong

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[not trolling]

I don't believe politics is a joke. The way that most people go about caring about politics and the specific things they care about (and don't care about) is a joke, however.

[/not trolling]

examples

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I know, I know. Let's celebrate Canadian Cruz because he broke 15 percent in national polls. Keep riding his nuts until the next one comes along, just like everyone did with Bush, Fiorina and Carson before him.

Y'all keep lining them up, and Trump keeps mowing them down.

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Plus or minus 10 points, but that's the kinda grip on reality I'd expect from someone tooting their Trump horn.

i think trump can win this.

i can easily see cruz getting first in iowa and trump second. then trump getting first in new hampshire and cruz second or third. the establishment trying to rally behind one person, but that person only getting about 25% of the vote. then cruz at some point bows out and endorses trump. after trump wins he names cruz as his vp. then trump/cruz smashes clinton/omalley. eight years later cruz/whomever smashes democrat/democrat

it has taken a while to understand the real strength that trump has. for example, the conventional wisdom is that if trump doesn't win iowa, the wind in his sails will dissipate and then the establishment can rise up in new hampshire. while that would normally be true, trump has the power to brush a loss off his shoulder unlike any politician ever. he can just say "da evangelicals like ted, im not perfect, ted's a good guy" then whammo he takes zero hit from the iowa loss.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

examples

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[not trolling]

I mostly just mean the general bullshit and level 0 thinking that the vast majority seem to believe in. It's like every politician talks about lowering taxes and shit like that because that's what sounds good, and there's a surprising percentage of people who actually buy into it and believe it.

To use Trump as an example, there are a ton of people who think that he has no chance because of who he is and what he says, and there's no depth of understanding about why he's as popular as he is. On the other side of the same coin, there are people who think he'd get like 90% of the popular vote if the media wasn't holding him down and that he'd bring down Obamacare in a single swing of his mighty dick and throw up a giant four-story electric fence along the entire US border and kick out 20 million Mexicans in the first year he's in office.

It's like the white trash who buy lottery tickets daily when they can barely pay their rent are just as bad as the Yankees who go to slut walks on daddy's dime and run up six figures in student loans for a shitty degree. They're all fundamentally on the same level.

To use Trump as an example again, I go in on the Trump stuff largely because I think it's hilarious that so many people get offended by the things he says and does, but also because I really love his campaign strategy. That reaction people get to the shit he says is still some level 0 shit, and that ties back into what I said before. He's not saying and doing the things he's done just because he feels like it.

The elections are basically entertainment at this point, and Trump is especially entertaining because he's so atypical and so different than what people normally see in politics. The approach he has can essentially be summed up as unapologetic applied charisma, which is an art form that has been largely lost in today's hyper-PC/outrage/victim culture.

[/not trolling]

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Washington (CNN)Donald Trump seems set to end 2015 as the dominant force in the race for next year's Republican nomination for president, with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz now a clear -- yet distant -- second after a strong debate performance, a new CNN/ORC poll released on Wednesday has found.

Trump tops the field with 39%, according to the poll of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters. That's more than double the share backing Cruz, who, at 18%, has inched up 2 points since the last CNN/ORC poll, which was taken in late November.

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LOL CANADIAN CRUZ

Baddest motherfucker with less than half of the support of Trump. He should take that weak shit back to Cuba.

I think everything is a joke.

regardless of trump's national numbers, i think there's a 20% chance he goes 0/2 then drops out.

probably the main reason he has a solid chance of winning new hampshire is that the establishment vote will be split up among christie, kasich, and bush (and partly rubio). plus a lot of trump supporters also heavily support sanders. they may vote for sanders if he's close to hillary in iowa and trump loses steam to cruz in iowa.

it could also be the case that trump approximately ties cruz in new hampshire. if cruz wins iowa, carson drops out and his supporters go to cruz. cruz likely picks up a small number of trump supporters. a large proportion of rubio supporters are also cruz supporters and they may go to cruz as well.

i have a gut feeling that trump knows he's not going to be the nominee. he may be in this to play kingmaker. if cruz does as well as it looks like he's going to and trump ends up endorsing him, there is no way he loses the nomination.

well, actually rubio could still beat cruz head to head. i forgot about him because he's a loser who is probably going to lose to christie due to his loser campaign strategy of a loser.

you know how to tell that rubio's strategy is garbage? put yourself in christie's shoes. you're fucking fistpumping that rubio is giving you nearly free reign to emerge the establishment favorite in new hampshire.

it's sad because the person i support the most is rand paul. he's not the man for the job though. he just doesn't have the gravitas of a public person.

dude waxes philosophical way too much in the debates. he's good for a sit-down chat, but needs to learn a thing or two about debate from cruz, rubio, or christie.

Rupub nominee is Trump or Cruz. No one else has any real chance, regardless of current polling. Bush is done. Rubio and christie are irrelevant. Carson and the rest are done.

The funny thing is that this may have gone differently if there were fewer candidates. It's so hard to get exposure when competing with 20 other candidates, that unless you're good at it you'll turn invisible. People have good points here and there, but people have to see them say it...but who has the time? No one is gonna bother to research all the pros and cons of a billion different candidates.

Hindsight, it's obv trump would be the frontrunner given this exposure problem. He's absolutely killing that game, and has the entire nation (world?) talking about him. Cruz is getting by, but I fear he's gonna fall like all the rest.

do these change your opinion: the proportion of voters who end up voting in the primaries that pay attention at this point in the election is <10%. iowa and new hampshire are gatekeepers. they cut down the number of candidates to a fraction of the size going into those states.

all the stuff leading up to iowa and new hampshire have little to do with stuff other than iowa and new hampshire. the only thing good national numbers do at this point is keep donors from abandoning ship. the game is seeing who does what in iowa and new hampshire. that's when the real nomination fight gets going.

for example, on the democratic side, if clinton wins both iowa and new hampshire, the nomination fight is over. sanders could not recover and delegates would swiftly get behind her. but if sanders wins both iowa and new hampshire, it'll turn into a long drawn out slugfest for months, likely down to the last few states.

But trump is dominating in new Hampshire and iowa, with cruz contending one of those...the rest of the invisible are, well, invisible.

It's a tough game predicting who is actually gonna vote that is currently supporting trump/cruz. But even you are starting to see trump as a serious candidate...why couldn't others?

And if we're saying trumps support will plummet with "actual voters", why wouldn't the invisible's support also plummet? This is a big guessing game at this point, but we see two repubs crushing atm. Maybe they fall off...or maybe they continue to crush.

If one-half of Trump's supporters voted and 100% of Cruz's supporters voted, then there would be more Trump supporters voting than Cruz at this point.

mccain had virtually no support and no campaign to speak of after he got trounced in iowa. he spent a week on his feet in new hampshire, emerging as the establishment favorite.

a big reason why so few candidates have caught on is that people are waiting. there will be one establishment candidate left over of the current several and he will get a minimum of 25% of the vote (with like >33% near the end of the primaries in the NE states). people just aren't sure who it is and are waiting to see who earns it.

as i've said, my vote is on christie. still, i think this race will have a larger than normal number of players mid-late in the game. the establishment might not be able to successfully rally behind one person after new hampshire. on the other side, everybody but trump and cruz will likely drop out of the race after new hampshire. we could see trump, cruz, christie, rubio, and kasich all running into the sec primary with >10% each.

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

If one-half of Trump's supporters voted and 100% of Cruz's supporters voted, then there would be more Trump supporters voting than Cruz at this point.

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Oh look, Donny Trump takes the lion's share of people dumb enough to fall for the old, "Everyone inside this Room is smart, and everyone outside is stupid," routine and we're supposed to believe he's has even 10% of the support he needs to win Iowa?

Simple fact is that real Americans are enjoying a laugh on Trump over dinner and then forgetting him as they busy about over more meaningful things.

It's an ugly sight watching him peak so early but only the electorate without day jobs are tuned into this race while they cycle between Fox News and Judge Judy. Once people with any sense step up to their democratic responsibilities, things are going to fall apart quickly.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015...landscape.html

Trump gonna slaughter. An uncareful reading says he hasn't spent shit, and is ready to advertise the fuck outta himself now. Everything so far seems to be from name and guest apperance alone, so the power of ads is gonna be awesome.

Meanwhile carson is planning to revive his dead campaign, an no one cares.

carson wants enough votes that he gets a central speaking spot at the convention. maybe

trump's support already correlates like normal with the level of media coverage he has received. an ad blitz is unlikely to propel him that much further up.

if cruz or rubio were getting the same amount of media coverage as trump, it is likely their numbers would be better than trump's have been.

the type of thing that's happening is this: some huge amount of poll respondents (like 80%) are undecided but not declaratively so. they hear a list of 8 different candidates they like but they don't know much about because they're not paying that much attention yet. but they do know more about trump. they pick trump now even though they are still truly undecided.

this doesn't mean that as interest in the campaign increases, trump will lose support. his support could stay the same or grow relative to others.

im going with 50% trump win, 30% cruz win, 15% christie/rubio win, 5% the field

one of the ways in which i think trump could be a far better president than most is that people pick presidents based on platitudes then get surprised that things just keep sucking. well, of course they continue to suck, reality doesn't deal in platitudes. a president whose worldview is not informed by platitudes would likely solve far more problems than one whose worldview is informed by platitudes. right now, we're forehead deep in the sewage of platitude-informed politicians.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Oh look, Donny Trump takes the lion's share of people dumb enough to fall for the old, "Everyone inside this Room is smart, and everyone outside is stupid," routine and we're supposed to believe he's has even 10% of the support he needs to win Iowa?

Simple fact is that real Americans are enjoying a laugh on Trump over dinner and then forgetting him as they busy about over more meaningful things.

It's an ugly sight watching him peak so early but only the electorate without day jobs are tuned into this race while they cycle between Fox News and Judge Judy. Once people with any sense step up to their democratic responsibilities, things are going to fall apart quickly.

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He hasn't peaked yet.

i keep going back and forth tho. part of me thinks cruz is 60% to win

inb4 sporkitnow calls cruz canadian again

I'll take Avatar bets on Iowa. I'm calling it: Ted's Cruzin'.

Cuban Cruz has no chance in hell.

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Cuban Cruz has no chance in hell.

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Me Cruz, you Trump - Booked?

remembered to do my 2016 list of gop rapper names

T-Rump
RR Cool Paul
Lil Carly
Ice Cruz
50 Rube
Jebinem
Chrizty-C
The Notorious B.E.N.
Ghostface Kasich

ofc none can compete with last year's winner: Sir Mitts-a-Lot.

is it wrong that i think ivanka trump is super hot?

she looks like such a bitch. crossbred with a chipmunk.

Would. Smash.

Trump may get the non-white vote to a greater degree that people think. My n=1: my sister-in-law is a Filipina immigrant (otherwise known as the Mexicans of Asia, as she likes to say). She's pretty metropolitan, works for a tech giant (mostly alongside various immigrant Asians and Indians, and native nerdy white guys), and isn't particularly religious (granted, she married my brother, who is quite culturally conservative). Anyways, she loves Trump. I haven't yet discussed exactly why with her, but my guess is that it has to do with his attacks on lawlessness and PC.

I really don't buy the narrative that guys like Trump and Cruz would lose a great deal of the Hispanic and Asian vote. In fact, I think it's an insult to lawful residents/citizens of Hispanic and Asian immigrant persuasion to say that they think it's totally okay for illegals to get special treatment.

Well, I'm related to two distinct Mexican families, and they both hate him.

Iirc, polls and news show this sentiment as well. Tho u r correct that they don't like illegals.

For those concerned with the Trumpening's minority followers:

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Blacks and Hispanics, in fact, even support Trump at a higher level than whites.

Only Dr. Ben Carson pulled more support from the black community than Trump, at 50 percent, and no one had more support from Hispanics than Trump. Among Asians, 37.5 percent supported Sen. Marco Rubio, with Sen. Ted Cruz matching Trump’s 18.8 percent.

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http://www.wnd.com/2015/12/minoritie...-donald-trump/

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

For those concerned with the Trumpening's minority followers:



http://www.wnd.com/2015/12/minoritie...-donald-trump/

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Is poll representative of typical polls? And does it fairly talk about mexicans? (Ie, when it says 45%, is that misleading in some way?)

I ask because I don't pay too much attention. I just know that the mexicans I live around hate him, and a scattering of news reports against him for his commentary

The minorities for Trump poll is probably largely a function of his gap in popularity.

I also suspect that Trump could appear better to Hispanics (and Asians, they seem to like him even less) during a general election. His positions would likely become more clear and less abrasive. I don't think many Hispanics would go into the voting booth with the intention to vote against Trump because of the rapists comment. It still does hurt him though. Trump should be able to adeptly move the rhetoric away from "Mexicans" to "illegal immigrants", and I think that would have much soothing effect. As of now, I can imagine Mexicans feel like he's attacking "Mexicanism" more than anything substantive. It could easily be that's Trump's intention (it plays well in the primary), while he'll move off it as soon as he can.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

Is poll representative of typical polls? And does it fairly talk about mexicans? (Ie, when it says 45%, is that misleading in some way?)

I ask because I don't pay too much attention. I just know that the mexicans I live around hate him, and a scattering of news reports against him for his commentary

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That's just your n=Juan.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

The minorities for Trump poll is probably largely a function of his gap in popularity.

I also suspect that Trump could appear better to Hispanics (and Asians, they seem to like him even less) during a general election. His positions would likely become more clear and less abrasive. I don't think many Hispanics would go into the voting booth with the intention to vote against Trump because of the rapists comment. It still does hurt him though. Trump should be able to adeptly move the rhetoric away from "Mexicans" to "illegal immigrants", and I think that would have much soothing effect. As of now, I can imagine Mexicans feel like he's attacking "Mexicanism" more than anything substantial. It could easily be that's Trump's intention (it plays well in the primary), while he'll move off it as soon as he can.

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If he wins the primary, he wins the White House. He would absolutely destroy Hillary to the point that it would be embarrassing to watch, and Bernie isn't going to beat Hillary. If by some miracle Bernie wins the primary, then it will be close-ish, but Trump would still clean house.

I think Trump would clean house in the general too, but I also think all top GOP candidates would as well. The Dems are quite weak. Supporters are dancing through every hoop they can to ignore how weak a candidate Clinton really is (and always has been).

I'm not sleeping on Bernie. Not that I think he's going to win, but he can get the upset. Clinton's support is just so insubstantive. She gets her support from the fact that she's viewed as a tool that can beat the GOP and that she's a woman. Outside of that, people don't actually like her. So many people see the corruption and lack of charisma. As of now they're biting their lips, but if Bernie-mentum picks up in any way, he could get a deluge of people who at the last minute vote with their gut and throw Hillary away.