This is the same as yesterday, except I was proven right and Ong was wrong.
Hint: Don't vote with the guy who was wrong.
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Baudib, nobody ever has the wolf team nailed down after 2 days.
If you're wrong about anyone, who, why and who else could be wolfin?
Keybored and the final wolf would be Daven, which is why Boog-Keybored-Ong-Daven wins it.
But Keybored is definitely a bigger threat to win this in the end than Ong. Keybored married himself to Ong in a really awkward way but Ong is life-and-death committed to saving Boog.
If you wanna go Boog-Ong-Keybored that works, but Keybored is still a threat to fool you and MMM/BID at that point.
Keybored is 100% in his "I'll do busy helpful work to look villagery and I'll vote for whichever villager I can get away with" mode.
Now I'll insult Ong's villager game by telling him something he already knows:
Ong, if you think someone is a wolf, you don't vote the guy he's voting for two days in a row.
The only reason, early on D1, that I thought Wuf could be a villager is that his wagon got off to such a fast start that there had to be wolves on it.
There were.
They were bussing Wuf but didn't vote for him when it mattered.
And Keybored's cinch on Wuf when it was 7-6 (after Wuf's partner voted for him) qualifies as "not when it mattered."
I've yet to read anything past post #1962, so I'm way behind. I'm working on a quality > quantity WW game this time around though because my terribad image is getting old in my books. I'm happy to report that I feel bigred is currently worse than I am.
I was just about to lynch baudib for a few different reasons but I just remembered that I have no idea if it cinches or pushes a wagon of his significantly. Therefore, I will check the updated VC now, then proceed.
I'm 100% out of my wolf range. And i don't say that very often because, honestly, I'm a better wolf than villager and I have done some outrageous things as a wolf.
But I'm never giving an exact lynch order to ensure victory as a wolf, because obviously I get lynched the first time I'm wrong. And I'm never ruling out various lynches.
I will lynch Rilla/myself over BID/MMM because -- I've gone back and forth on this -- Rilla's play the past 24 hours or so has been off enough to give him a 0.5% wolf chance, whereas MMM/BID are literally at 0% wolf I think.
so yeah, if I'm a wolf I have no way to win this because if I survive, I'm always at F4 with BID/MMM.
lol
lynch baudib
I think the only way I don't vote for baudib is if I'm the only one on that wagon or if he only had 1 vote at the time vs. 4 or 5 or something silly.
GG baudib.
Try to imagine yourself being Wuf on Day 1...you have IRL issues and can't be at the computer.
You come back and Boog is leading wagon...you look and see that only villagers are voting for him.
Ong's assertion that the wolves went for Gabe/Rong because it was a "bigger mislynch" (no one has ever used this term before incidentally) is totally laughable.
For one, Gabe made a mistake that wasn't going to go away ever. Two, Rong is always mislynchable.
If Boog is a villager, a wagon driven only by villagers, this is the BIGGEST mislynch possible. IIRC, you have to go back 6-7 games to find an early game mislynch only driven by villagers.
It is a wolves' wet dream. You can sit back and point fingers at the Boog voters the rest of the game and easily win from there.
The resistance to the Boog wagon is amazing. There's not a single reason he can be a villager ever.
As I'm reading trying to catch up I realize that I shouldn't be voting until I have all of the information.
rescind baudib
i can't figure out what the wolf plan is after I get lynched, but getting me lynched is obviously vital.
i guess they will start pushing on MMM/BID at some point, but the most obvious line is to try for a Daven/BigRed ML.
The only way the wolves can win is by slipping Keybored through.
If Boog comes back he'll spout a variation of the Ong line about me and not talk about anyone else.
yeah, Boog-Keybored-Ong is still a better lynch order than Boog-Ong-Keybored.
Mod Corner
Vote Count!
(4) Baudib: Ongbonga, Boog, Keybored, Daven
(2) Boog: Baudib, Lilrascal
(1) Daven: Luco
Day3 ends in <36hrs. With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Time lost is muffin lost.
You receive precisely zero villager cred for wuf getting lynched. By your logic, I should get village cred if I at one time or another, during any given day, vote for every player. DUCY?
1) I do the same thing in that I have a tendancy to snap vote as soon as the next day begins.
2) You are stating that baudib is a wolf 100% of the time here. I find that to be a dishonest opinion.
This soooo much.
No matter what happens with a baudib flip (if he flips), I'm giving a lock status to ong as the opposite.
I've seen a few players make this type of error already but I'm not sure what to think of it.
Key and rilla have done the same thing.
I also love the fact that Ong got DUCY'd twice this game.
Wuf is a fan of DUCY IIRC.
I'm starting to become suspicious of ong so I thought I'd go back to the beginning and isolate his posts. This is what I found:
I'm a villager. So you were wrong with this one.
This is a bad vote.
Two bad points here.
I'm going to stop here, at only post #130. This last quote, combined with everything I've read thus far, has me scratching my head on ong. Ong is absolutely in my wolfy camp right now.
I still want to lynch daven and bigred. I'm annoyed with bigred for disappearing and daven read far enough into d2 to see wuf's vote but still felt that was the only thing worth commenting on. D2 was a very busy day by ftr standards.
Keybored, how do you currently feel about daven/bigred?
BankItDrew, mojo, monstr, rilla
Read page 14
Which one is 14?
lynch baudib
I mean I guess wuf and baudib could have made that an elaborate setup to get one of them to look really good if the other flipped
Interesting. Wuf said "Rilla/baudib is w/w". I mean that would be really lol if that was the exact team.
I also still really feel like wuf is making a dedicated effort to not-really-talk-about boog, and I still think it's on purpose.
All those paragraphs look to me like a wolf under pressure desperately trying to make villagers look like wolfbros with him and not accidentally clear anyone.
I think he took it too far.
Luco, I'm willing to compromise and go for Ong after Boog and we'll sort out Daven/Keybored later.
I'm willing to be convinced if you are.
Wolves:
none of you has a partner willing to lynch MMM/BID over you.
thus you are mathematically eliminated.
you had your fun but it's time to concede.
I think of baudib's ad-hominem attacks along the same lines as bigred's cat gifs: garble that doesn't help the village.
No need to threaten us with your absence.
This is an excellent observation. I'm strongly leaning Luco and monstrman as villagers after reading their conversation. Luco's quote btw, is in reference to wuf VC'ing when it was
gabe - 5
boog - 5 (leads)
wuf - 2
baud - 3
I know I haven't been posting much but I'm all caught up with the thread. It didn't seem like anyone listened when I posted while baudib and Ong took over.
Ong has me as a villager. He's been adamant about it and claims to be 100% sure. His argument is that the wolves never wait that long to save another wolf. Also, he claims that he, "a villager," rallied to lynch gabe. Ong closes by saying the wolves snatch up the gabe lynch instead of my lynch, in that situation.
Baud has more of a matter-of-fact approach. His argument is one that closely echoes an earlier one I made:
I was blinded by my initial instinct to go for baudib instead of the others. Baudib's style of play tilted me and I refused to think otherwise. I was wrong about baudib here and I admit that. Ong is the most obvious reason day 1 went the way it did. He saved me and I didn't allow myself to think a wolf would do that. I was wrong.
It's impossible for Ong to be so sure about my villager status unless:
Rescind baudib
Lynch Ong
Boog that was a nice play but the problem you have is that no one is going to believe that wolf Ong makes that play if you're a villager.
which, conveniently, you're not.
Lynch me before boog, and when I flip villager, clear boog and lynch baudib.
ffs do NOT LET BAUDIB SECURE BOOG'S LYNCH BEFORE HE FUCKING DIES
I'm so convinced that baudib is a wolf who needs boog's mislynch. They won't get the other mislynches. Maybe me and rascal are a mislynch, but I'm much happier that boog is a villager than rascal, so I prefer my lynch to boog's.
Do not lynch boog before baudib. The wolves are in the shit, there is a reason baudib wants boog before me. If he's so sure I'm a wolf, why doesn't he get rid of me now? Because he knows I'm going to flip villager.
He might also know that my lynch is not a mislynch. That would make a lot of sense in fact. Not only do they need boog dead, maybe they need me alive too.
Yes, I'd be willing to lynch ong just to see him die before me.
This is a terrible ong post.
1) Tone should never been the only factor for lynching someone.
2) Silencing a player has never helped the village.
I lol'd irl, just thought i'd let you know
lol
I did. It looks good for baudib.
btw, you should reference post # ranges instead of pages because some players have different settings set for # of posts per page.
I don't see how rilla could be a wolf after doing this.
This game is the best.
My last meal:
http://i.imgur.com/fSDhPqW.jpg
arrroooooooooooooo
bitches
lynch ong
when I flip villager, lynch baudib. When he flips wolf, clear boog and win from there.
I hope rascal is a wolf.
Knew it the whole time, ez game.
I don't understand why wolf ong would self-lynch then say he's flipping village.
If ong flips wolf, I'm giving myself a lot of fucking credit.
But then he says when he's flipping village... fuck you ong! lol
Glad I'm finally caught up tho
lynch ong
A rascal wolf flip should be considering extremely damning for baudib. He insists over and over that boog should go before me. Why does baudib want to keep me hanging? Maybe because I'm not a mislynch.
But regardless of rascal, baudib is a wolf. When I flip villager, just make sure he dies before boog. If baudib is a villager and boog a wolf, I'll laugh at how fucking shit I played.
baudib's gone quiet.
I made them go to the den to figure out what to do next.
Tell me I'm bad after baudib flips drew.
Also, thank you for reading me as wolf and restoring my faith that you just got lucky the last couple of times. I was a little worried you were soulreading me.