You promised to do some work and provide some reads. There's lots to work with now with 5 dead now. Give us some reads if you wnat to get out of the POE.Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace
Printable View
You promised to do some work and provide some reads. There's lots to work with now with 5 dead now. Give us some reads if you wnat to get out of the POE.Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace
I understand the poe but I haven't even been given a wolf read by anyone so that's why I find that interesting
Gonna grab some food n then read thru thread
You keep promising to give some reads, but not delivering. I had you as neutral, but you're sliding toward my wolf pile.Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace
And it's not because you're wolfy, it's because you're not being villagery at all.
I'm comfortable with the Healer not touching either, we have enough room in the PoE without them.
Do not vote for Ong, let's switch it up here.
Lynch Boog
wolves are likely slanking here so let's make some moves
lilrascal please vote?
why the fuck do i keep thinking the deadline is tonight
ignore m
I'm working on a reads post now. I'll place a vote after I get done with that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
I agree we should not be lynching Ong, but why Boog?Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
Ummmm... what night shot?Quote:
I still get my night shot.
Who were you shooting here? I first read it as BATM, but I'm not certain of your intent there.Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
Solid case.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBrokenATM
However, I have the perfect defence...
lynch BATM
I think last three wolves are drew, boog and BATM.
MVP me.
I honestly thought that the deadline was tonight so I voted to tie the wagons.Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
wolf!boog would not shoot wolf!BATMQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I cannot see a wolf shooting another wolf after the massacre that was today. I can't honestly see a wolf ever shooting another wolf in a game this small. I may be wrong but it's not something I'm willing to consider this early.
Oh yeah boog shot BATM.
Ok boog can go into the null pile for the time being. I'd like to know what the fuck he's talking about with "night shot" though.
I could see it happening when there's only a 15% chance of a hit. That's a small risk for a big reward of clearing yourself. Especially for shots on Aubrey today since she was vanilla.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
i agree with you. i think beck choosing to not consider this is bad. i'm not saying beck is wolfy, im saying its a very real concern. for batm or hifiQuote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
lynch batm
hey hifi i think you're probably not a wolf so tell me why not batm
wait did batm shoot at rilla or somethign?
Here's where I stand right now, based on my reads and the ITA sessions:
Villas:
Luco - I had him as one of my top villas yesterday and IMO, he's lock cleared when you combine that with the rilla kill in the ITA session, especially with rilla flipping wolf PR
Hifi - I read her as neutral, but now almost as clear Luco for targeting rilla in the ITA
ong - Ong's been one of my top villa reads and combining that with his ITA shot on Aubrey reinforces that read
gabe - I've read gabe as wolfy this game (sorry), but others are reading him as villa, but his ITA of Aubrey pushes him into my villa pile
PNAW - I haven't had much of a read either way on PNAW, but his ITA shot on Aubrey pushes him into my villa pile
Beck - I've had him as one of my top villas and even though he shot at JKDS (I did too), I don't think it was a bad shot, especially when he was calling for a rilla shot to start the ITA session.
Neutrals:
MMM - I had him in my villa pile since we had a lot of similar reads, but I don't like the fact that he didn't vote D1 and didn't participate in the ITA, so he's neutral now
Bigred - I see glimpses of villa in him, but I need to see more
SMF - Keeps promising to deliver some reads, but doesn't produce, he hasn't done anything wolfy, but he hasn't done anything villagery either
Kami - Either a wolf or uncaring/unhelpful villager - most likely dying tonight, so we'll find out soon enough. I'm not sure what to make of her shot at BATM
BATM - His lack of presence in the thread is not like BATM in either role. Him not paying attention and voting for Ong who shot at Aubrey is neutral for BATM. He tends to skim and not read and votes more on gut IMO. I'm not sure what to think of both Kami and Boog shooting him might mean. If Boog flips wolf, then I think BATM is likely villa.
Wolves:
Boog - He seems disconnected and hasn't been doing anything villagery. But it BATM flips wolf it will make him look much better with the shot he took during the ITA.
SIU - Meh game, has done nothing villagery. Let the poison take care of him.
BID - He seems to be openly wolfing now, he's not trying to help the village at all. If he wouldn't have been stripped of his powers, I'd say lynch him today regardless of his claim, but fortunately we can wait on him and let it resolve. Or lynch him tomorrow if he doesn't start to try and be a villager.
who went off script? i know siu did.
it's gotta be true that the wolves are far more likely to go off script with the shots. the villagers are the ones who will want to hit specific consensus targets and such
No, he didn'tQuote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
but what about meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeQuote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
Shots list.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
Only one missing from Beck's post is my shot that killed JKDS.
@JKDS, sorry about that.
You weren't in the viewable area of my spreadsheet when I typed that up. That's what you get for being last alphabetically.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I'll update it.
I've seen it work both ways in ITA's. I've seen villagers take the hero shot and it sometimes works for them when they hit a wolf. I've also seen the wolves take out villa PRs for the game equity and also take out low level or at risk wolves to try and clear themselves for the long game.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
actually we need to take a step back here
it is not that unlikely that rilla wanted the wolves to shoot him. he hates wolfing and he would look for an out. all that has to happen is somebody in the chat mention it and he would be okay with him being the target. with five total wolves, it is not bad whatsoever to kill one.
oftentimes when things are this sensible, though, the wolves didn't think to do it. but im not so sure we can clear people as easily as rascal has
Solid argumentQuote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
rescind
lynch batm
Updated list (this time with Wuf in it). Most villa to most wolfy from top to bottom. Gaps added to show some separation in levels of reads.
Here's where I stand right now, based on my reads and the ITA sessions:
Villas:
Luco - I had him as one of my top villas yesterday and IMO, he's lock cleared when you combine that with the rilla kill in the ITA session, especially with rilla flipping wolf PR
Hifi - I read her as neutral, but now almost as clear Luco for targeting rilla in the ITA
ong - Ong's been one of my top villa reads and combining that with his ITA shot on Aubrey reinforces that read
gabe - I've read gabe as wolfy this game (sorry), but others are reading him as villa, but his ITA of Aubrey pushes him into my villa pile
PNAW - I haven't had much of a read either way on PNAW, but his ITA shot on Aubrey pushes him into my villa pile
Beck - I've had him as one of my top villas and even though he shot at JKDS (I did too), I don't think it was a bad shot, especially when he was calling for a rilla shot to start the ITA session.
Neutrals:
Wuf - I haven't seen old-wuf (which I think I could read better), but new-wuf is taking some getting used to, I'm not ready to put him in my villa pile, but I'm not seeing anything wolfy from him. What I do like is his consistency in his voting.
MMM - I had him in my villa pile since we had a lot of similar reads, but I don't like the fact that he didn't vote D1 and didn't participate in the ITA, so he's neutral now
Bigred - I see glimpses of villa in him, but I need to see more
SMF - Keeps promising to deliver some reads, but doesn't produce, he hasn't done anything wolfy, but he hasn't done anything villagery either
Kami - Either a wolf or uncaring/unhelpful villager - most likely dying tonight, so we'll find out soon enough. I'm not sure what to make of her shot at BATM
BATM - His lack of presence in the thread is not like BATM in either role. Him not paying attention and voting for Ong who shot at Aubrey is neutral for BATM. He tends to skim and not read and votes more on gut IMO. I'm not sure what to think of both Kami and Boog shooting him might mean. If Boog flips wolf, then I think BATM is likely villa.
Wolves:
Boog - He seems disconnected and hasn't been doing anything villagery. But it BATM flips wolf it will make him look much better with the shot he took during the ITA.
SIU - Meh game, has done nothing villagery. Let the poison take care of him.
BID - He seems to be openly wolfing now, he's not trying to help the village at all. If he wouldn't have been stripped of his powers, I'd say lynch him today regardless of his claim, but fortunately we can wait on him and let it resolve. Or lynch him tomorrow if he doesn't start to try and be a villager.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
That was kind of weird reading that wuf post since Gabe said it 7 hours ago..Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Lynch Boog
I think he's been wolfy and this would help resolve BATM, at least to some extent.
Lists are wolfy
:pQuote:
Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace
http://i.imgur.com/5Oxza.pngQuote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
people were just now talking about itQuote:
Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace
Nice catch BTW. I don't know if it means anything, but I don't think rilla was going to last long in this game. Several people were suspicious of him.Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace
So the wolves think that since Kami was the obv village target that the healer would save the other one?Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
:/
I can see it happening. Plus, I think there are a lot of players that would have tried that FPS play last night. Now that 2 wolves are dead, I don't think they'd try that. Now, they need to kill villas since they're losing at the moment.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Heh, the ego on you to think that I posted because you mentioned me. I didn't even catch your earlier post until I saw this one. I'm doing my best to keep up with the thread and being around during the important times (ITA, in this case). I was for a BID lynch D1 but we'll ignore that, right? Granted, I would've changed my vote (probably to SIU) if I was present at deadline but I still think my BID bold should count for something.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
At the time, I didn't understand I only got one shot. I thought I got a day shot and a night shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
You shoot the villager that openly defended me and suddenly go to lynch me. How convenient.Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
Yes, I shot a villager that was read by most of the village as wolfy. FWIW, I wasn't the first to shoot at him.Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
But, if you go back to when I left before the ITA's I was calling for a rilla shot.
Are you considering the risk that when it fails, they've lost a wolf?Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
Are you fully putting the weight on the fact that your initial assumption is that the village healer KNOWS which poisoning was done by the wolves?
What is Ship's reputation for wolfing? It is like rilla's? 'cause if they're gonna try this ploy, I'd think tossing a weak/disinterested wolf under that bus makes a lot more sense.
***
Anyone else seeing what I'm seeing?
gabe vs boog
Round 1
FIGHT!
For the record, I have gabe as super-V and boog as prob V.
I trust super-V gabe's reads above anyone's, and if he says boog is bad, then I have to re-examine my read on boog.
I don't recall seeing boog's wolf game. Has he wolfed since his glorious return to WW, and I'm spacing it?
Yes, I am considering that. When I first saw the layout of this game I would have guessed the wolves would win ~55-60% because the ITA's are normally pro wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
The way things worked out today, I don't think the wolves have much of a chance. This was the most organized and pro villa ITA session that I've ever seen. Normally, I see more hero shots and the fact we killed 2 wolves and lost 1 villa is a huge swing in our favor.
If the wolves have had much experience with ITA's then, I think they may have thought that too.
SuperMonkeyFace - the man
Beck Novo - good tone. Good pressure all around. I have doubts but it's heavily outweighed by positives
Bigred - villagery day 1 but idk what since. Fall off feels wolfy
BooG690 - truthfully, most recent posts have sold me he's a v. Before then I don't recall anything.
ProbablyNotAWolff - I don't remember the content for why I cleared him but I remember it being solid. Probably my top villa read
gabe - likely v
Hifi - likely v
lilrascal - likely v
Luco - likely v
Bankitdrew - null
MadMojoMonkey - null
OngBonga - null
ShipItUp -
Kami - I'm having trouble figuring out who likely got poisoned by who. There's been back n forth debate a little but it's mixed. Personally I'm fine with not saving either but if there's a consensus on the most likely wolf target and a main reason why that is than please share
TheBrokenATM - probably a wolf
Wufwugy - consistent meta range reads on literally everyone, almost every post. Wolf tell?
FYI I just grabbed the live player list and fired off thoughts as I went thru it
It's in no fancy order but it's kind of going down villa to wolf
I'll take null
rescind
lynch beck
I'm good with the BATM lynch.
If Ship is not consensus cleared, then he can go. I have him in my wolfy stack, but the mechanics are giving me pause.
gabe v boog will help firmly establish where boog fits in the POE.
SMF needs to do something of note. IDK why he isn't being mentioned, but he's right that it's worth thinking about. He's not out of my POE, but there have been more obviously wolfy people to talk about.
bigred gave us some effort on D1, and nothing yet on D2. I want more involvement or I can vote for him, too.
BID is either just FPSing the hell out of being a villager or he'll be counterclaimed soon enough. If BID is a villager in this game, I prefer the old BID. If BID is a wolf, his approach to WW is dramatically approaching ong's old "FPS all the things" style.
i don't hate this voteQuote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I'm not sure what you mean by this.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Right, BID needs to go ASAP; if he's a wolf then he's the new Poisoner, and if he's a villager then he's of no use to us unless the village's Poisoner is sniped tonight.
But if the village's Poisoner doesn't die tonight then the village's backup should CC 100% of the time, as he's essentially an Innocent Child (as he can no longer become the backup) with the lynch of BID, and if we were to lynch wrong, then BID is an outed wolf. And a one-for-one trade at this point is well worth it.
Conversely, if there is no CC tomorrow, I will be forced to assume that BID is what he says he is, and is just playing like shit. So if there is an actual backup for the village, PLEASE CLAIM. If you don't, you're letting wolf!BID slide. This play is a win/win for us every single time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
what is poe again? every time i see it i think "person of (e)interest" but that can't be true
Process of EliminationQuote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Process of elimination.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Trying to shoot hifi the same day she tries to shoot rilla is bonkers. It is one thing to tinfoil on whether she did this for clearance but we arent going to yolo her the same day she tries to shoot a wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I find it very weird that you think she can be a wolf but you are a confirmed villager for doing what she did but getting lucky and hitting.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
http://i.imgur.com/O2KSaqz.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I agree, BID is acting bonkersQuote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
I agree with this as wellQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
the voice of reasonQuote:
Originally Posted by Luco
wufwuf defense of aubreyQuote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
posted right after the defense. reads to me like he's trying to get on the right side of aubrey flipping wolfQuote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
DID WE JUST BECOME BEST FRIENDSQuote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
again reads like he knows her flipQuote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
this does not look like a legitimate thought. Also, is rilla a pogger, because if not then this seems more bonkers. If wufwuf is a wolf then i think this is a good look for poggers.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
This also seems like a fake thought. You want to kill jkds because he defended you when you HARD defended a wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
shipitup talks senseQuote:
Originally Posted by ShipItUp
Alot of the people were asking beck about shots, why do you single jkds out over everyone else.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
You can't be a confirmed villager for shooting at a wolf and be wary of another villager for shooting at a wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
you point out how you think JKDS is wolfy for variosu reasons, then you take a low accountability shot at BID.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
what about aubrey spews kami as a wolf, I think it's complely the opposite.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
This is probably somethign that should have been up when people were asking to shoot him, not after.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
http://reactiongif.org/wp-content/up...Oliver-GIF.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by TheBrokenATM
i like where your head is at.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
villagyQuote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
I think you were wolfy at this pointQuote:
Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace
I no longer think you are wolfyQuote:
Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace
I think you fake claimed and now you realized that you are boned.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Isnt BID roleblocked?Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
Day One VC:
NightGizmo 8 (ShipItUp, Kami, Luco, BigRed, Rascal, Hifi, ProbablyNotAWolff, Beck)
ShipItUp 5 (gabe, Nightgizmo, Rilla, Wufwugy, SuperMonkeyFace)
Kami 3 (TheBrokenATM, aubreymcfate, Bankitdrew)
Aubreymcfate 2 (TopTierTom, OngBonga)
Rilla 1 (JKDS)
BankItDrew 1 (Boog)
Not Voting: MadMojoMonkey
I would bet anything that Kami and SIU are not wolves here, but it would also be optimal to know for certain what SIU's alignment is because it will shed a lot of light onto D1's VC. Statistcially, it's also likely that there's at least one wolf on Gizmo's wagon -- I would assume that if Kami and SIU are both villagers, then BR and rascal are both possibilities for wolves. HiFi, Luco, and bopo, too, but less so because they've all taken shots at wolves.
If SIU flips villager, then I will once again look at wuf and SMF. I trust gabe here. I need to re-read Ong's progression and see why he left his vote on rilla. BATM and BID both look back on Kami. And then there's Boog. Leaning villager on the latter but am still unsure.
Thank God, bopo is here. Reading your post now.
PNAW, yes, hifi and i both aimed at a wolf to start off ITA. the difference is i know i am a villager, so when stating my theory on why we can not clear hifi, i must factor that in
and re: "This is probably somethign that should have been up when people were asking to shoot him, not after."
i said it here: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...27#post2249627 which was alluding to this exact thing. i admit i did a bad job of explaining my thought process for the post.
Incoming POG circle jerk. I'm going to sleep. Night.
You're leaving just as this thread is about to get good? B'awwwwww.Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
if im wolf i shoot her myself every time without hesitation.Quote:
Originally Posted by ProbablynotAWolff
ive been wolf twice in the last four (five?) years. both times i was very big on the idea of hurting other wolves. ftr strategic culture is probably not as advanced as other forums (i think our meta is maybe more advanced though). all it really takes to get major super epic v cred here is to get your name on as a big driver of the death of a wolf.
he's not but he doesn't like wolfing as is.Quote:
this does not look like a legitimate thought. Also, is rilla a pogger, because if not then this seems more bonkers. If wufwuf is a wolf then i think this is a good look for poggers.
i said i liked it more than previous. notice that i didnt shoot him and instead shot the guy i have wanted dead at basically every turn. in fact if bid flips wolf you will finally have a decent piece of evidence that i could be a wolf since i would try to kill him as a wolf. if he and i were both wolves, id be all over him in the den about how he's a dead man walking and the best course of action is for the remaining wolves to slam him and gain the v credQuote:
This also seems like a fake thought. You want to kill jkds because he defended you when you HARD defended a wolf.
shipitup confuses "thinking about things" with "convoluted"Quote:
shipitup talks sense
i post a lot of bullshit but i like my ending spot to be correctQuote:
you point out how you think JKDS is wolfy for variosu reasons, then you take a low accountability shot at BID.
yeah it could be this instead.Quote:
what about aubrey spews kami as a wolf, I think it's complely the opposite.
I agree with your entire post, bopo.
Yet I have a tingly feeling that I'm being duped by you and rascal. Very unlikely, but, y'know, I can't not acknowledge it.
I think wuf would be our best lynch today, honestly.
Lynch wuf
Yes! Beck is leading the village to it's demise.Quote:
Originally Posted by ProbablynotAWolff
VV:
MMMonkey
beck
luco
V:
gabe
Hifi
lilrascal
Ong
prolly villa:
monkey
bigred
Wolf POE:
BATM
BID
wufwuf
Boog
I have too many villagers and since I dont think BATM/Boog can be W/W(because boog shooting BATM) it means i'm probably clearing some people too lightly. Thats why there are so many tiers in my villa list.
I disregarded Kami/SiU. I think they are most likely v/v. I think if you are gonna heal either of them i'd heal kami(because im pretty sure aubrey spews her villa), but I get the arguement for not healing either of them.
I think wufwuf has been openly wolfing all afternoon. I dislike his hard defense of aubrey. Then when she flips wolf he starts pushing JKDS for defending him for defending Aubrey which is next level bonkers. Also the pushing of JKDS for telling Beck to guide his shot is pure madness since alot of people were trying to get concensus on shots. Then when he goes to take his shot he shoots BID over JKDS which would be crazy if BID weren't basically lolcatting as an uncounterclaimed villa PR.
I have Boog as a wolf as well. I dont like how he was pushing for Hifi after she shot at rilla. He was also an aubrey defender.
I think BATM can be a wolf here based on the fact that I have so many people being villagers and he hasn't lit the game on fire. Based on Boog's shot if Boog is a wolf i dont think BATM is ever a wolf. With rilla dead and aubrey dead, I dont think wolves cannabalize themselves there, they need to kill villas.
I think BID's claim resolves itself, however is posting basically amounts to lolcatting.
I was suspicious of monkey because of his reluctance to post reads. I took this as him being reluctant to make a stance in the game and wolfy, however i liked alot of the reads on his list.
I had bigred as a villa but I think he has completely fallen off.
here let me make it easy for you and lock my vote in on myselfQuote:
Originally Posted by Beck Novo
lynch wuf
you're seeing only what you want to see.
Hm? Coincidence?Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMonkeyFace
Just poking around.
Also, BID voted Aubrey out of "self-preservation" several hours before the end of the phase. Does he do this as a wolf?
Wuf,
My problem is that I think hesitate is exactly what you did when ITAs were coming around and Audrey was the target. You were posting defenses of her then posting about if she has a wolf tell. It looke dlike you were working up the nerve to shoot her and if you shot her you would look good but the problem is Gabe didn't hesitate and shot and hit her. Now we're left to determine whether or not you were really reconsidering her, or if your a wolf trying to make your flip on your stance of her villagy.
Well that was stupid. Dude, there's still almost 24 hours left, I could've changed my mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
Help me see what you see, then. Start picking apart the game with me.
people who know how i play are also playing. ask them. if im a wolf here im a fucking magicianQuote:
Originally Posted by ProbablynotAWolff
i have hard defended her every single game i have played with her.Quote:
I dislike his hard defense of aubrey.
i respect his game just that much. im known for being a doofus who constantly accidentally hard defends wolves. it's so bad that i used to have the nickname "honorary wolf". so when somebody hard defends my hard defend, it's not unreasonable to think he could be buddying.Quote:
Then when she flips wolf he starts pushing JKDS for defending him for defending Aubrey which is next level bonkers.
the way he said it. reread that shit. sounded like a guy who wanted to say it just right and make sure everybody knew he was on beck's side.Quote:
Also the pushing of JKDS for telling Beck to guide his shot is pure madness since alot of people were trying to get concensus on shots.
ive wanted bid dead for a long time. the only reason he's alive is because he claimedQuote:
Then when he goes to take his shot he shoots BID over JKDS which would be crazy if BID weren't basically lolcatting as an uncounterclaimed villa PR.
Wuf,
I like your responses by the way.
I hate that you self voted.
I need to marinate on this