Varchertine's Werewolf Game Thread

Hi, BID!
http://gifsec.com/wp-content/uploads...-a-big-hug.gif

I'm the loyal lion

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Where were you reading up about me?

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I was remembering the postgame for the last werewolf game where you seemed very angry and you said: "I think you'll find, I'm a douchebag."

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

You detailed my thought progression explicitly.

What do you think I need to explain?


All villagers need to take a deep breath.

@Ong: I'm listening, but I don't recall any strong argument for or against boog/monstr as a team.
Please re-state or link to original post.

Also, we obviously care, but we have a lot of data to sift through and we must make up our own mind-brains.

One of the great lessons I had to accept in the fallout of my self-lynch was that:
Even though I'm frustrated, and it SEEMS like people aren't listening, they are. They are just equally frustrated and dealing with it in their own way. If I'm not convincing them, then it's incumbent on me to figure out what I can do differently.

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No, I didn't detail your thought process, I detailed the flow of the thread. Ong inocrrectly mentioned to you that the VC was wrong, but you discounted it.

Why would disregard that information?

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

apparently you have no idea how reads work. all of our reads in this game are threadflow and style specific. i have zero desire to privately talk with anybody unless it's a romeo and juliet thing, where we already know each others' roles.

it's a little funny that you were so gung ho about rascal being a wolf because of private chat, but now you arent. there's all the info you need that it's not giving you any valuable information. and here we are, left having to suss out the real meaning of this lack of information

the first thing every villager should have done is not engage in any private chat. am i the only person here who has a theoretical understanding of how this game works. apparently i am, which i guess makes sense since i get to almost every endgame and i keep winning them all

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Wuf, I essentially made this same argument in the last game and you called me wolfy for it and pushed for my mislynch. Why the change?

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

No, I didn't detail your thought process, I detailed the flow of the thread. Ong inocrrectly mentioned to you that the VC was wrong, but you discounted it.

Why would disregard that information?

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I think we're picking nits over flow of thread vs. my thought process, since my thought process is in that flow.

I don't recall Ong ever posting a VC, and I don't see what is gained by the incorrect count other than to say my vote was ineffective. If he was pushing on me as wolfy, then I'd think this was intentional.

The fact is that I thought I was placing the deciding vote, and I replied as such. Given daven's VC analysis, it looks like I was right.

***
What do you think wolf-Ong gains by saying that my vote was not the deciding vote at EOD?
Bear in mind that he says this knowing that I keep a spreadsheet and track daily post count and vote counts.

So if he's a wolf, and he's lying, then he KNOWS it's a paper tiger.

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Originally Posted by baudib

It's not like you missed a ton because honestly, no one is really doing anything. But interacting in real time is infinitely more valuable than reading ancient history, Daven.

talking about BID's status when absolutely no one has even hinted they want to lynch him is a waste of time, of which you seem to have little.

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Originally Posted by daven

on re-read i'm still convinced by my case on wuf = post 201 http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...18#post2226118. Seems there was value in reading the mechanics blah first time around after all....

right now the players that seem most wolf on the re-read are wuf/baudib/ong with mmm a dark horse maybe

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Daven:

-- your thoughts on Ong/Rascal accusing each other of being a wolf
-- Boog-Gabe wagons
-- your partner

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

i'm doing both. How do you know you didn't miss some gold if you didn't even read it?


i'm talking about bid likely villager, that's fine.
In the same breath i'm suggesting that discounting mmm as a wolf based on bid = likely villager is a mistake i don't want people to make. Why are you so upset by me pointing this out?!?

re the snide snipe about me seeming to have little time. I don't play werewolf from a phone. I play from a computer. I'm often not at my computer. And that's how i want my life to stay.

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Originally Posted by baudib

no one cares how you play WW, Daven, just that you actually play. You are challenging BigRed for the BigRed award, FFS.

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Baud, why the harassment of Daven when he's trying to catch up on the thread and make reads. It would be more beneficial to assess what he's saying and interacting as you say.

I agree that interaction is the best way to get reads, but you're dead wrong that reading the thread "ancient history" is infinitely more valuable. Connections are made especially in vote analysis from the lynches.

This doesn't look like game solvey Baud.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I think we're picking nits over flow of thread vs. my thought process, since my thought process is in that flow.

I don't recall Ong ever posting a VC, and I don't see what is gained by the incorrect count other than to say my vote was ineffective. If he was pushing on me as wolfy, then I'd think this was intentional.

The fact is that I thought I was placing the deciding vote, and I replied as such. Given daven's VC analysis, it looks like I was right.

***
What do you think wolf-Ong gains by saying that my vote was not the deciding vote at EOD?
Bear in mind that he says this knowing that I keep a spreadsheet and track daily post count and vote counts.

So if he's a wolf, and he's lying, then he KNOWS it's a paper tiger.

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There is a difference between what I posted which were the flow of the posts and what you were thinking. It's not a nit.

You said:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I'm pretty sure the votes are tied 6/6 with the tie going to boog


This is killing me.

lynch gabe

I hope it's the right move.

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You gave no rationale for your vote change. I just want to understand why you switched from Boog to Gabe.

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Originally Posted by JKDS

Mod Corner

Vote Count!
(4, Leads) Wufwugy: Baudib, Monstrman, MadMojomonkey, wufwugy
(4) Bigred: Keybored, Luco, a500lbgorilla, Hoopy
(2) Baudib: Boog, Ongbonga
(1) Ongbonga: Rascal
(1) Boog: Bankitdrew
(1) Luco: Daven

Not Voting: Sometimes, I think I'd like to adopt a little baby. [Pause] So I could abandon it at a mall. I'm sorry, what was the question?

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I'm struggling with finding things to add that will help the village and it's not because I'm a wolf, so stfu. I just really appreciate players who post quality>quantity. The best thing I can do is give an updated feel on players:

Wagons:

wuf - I am still convinced he is a V > rando %.
big - I don't understand the wagon. Is it because he's playing like standard br? Not playing? I don't hate the reason because I'm getting annoyed with it. I may very well vote for br based solely on my wuf read + br is useless.
baud - I'm beginning to tone read him as a wolf. I'm not going to offer this tell to the public in case I'm right.
ong - I've still got him in my V category but it's slowly changing because I strongly disagree with what he believes wuf's thought process is.
boog - I'm swaying from W to V. Slowly. I also hate being the only vote on him.

rescind boog
lynch bigred

also, wtf wuf. Self lynch because you're butthurt? I'm so sick of players self-lynching because they feel like no one is listening to them.

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

rescind bigred

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

I'm fairly convinced baud is a baddy here.

I'm seeing aggression, opportunism, double-talk reads... all tone stuff, but I think it's enough to vote.

lynch baudib

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Hey lover ;)

lynch baudib

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I think this is where we're at:

Unofficial Vote Count!
(5) Baudib: Boog, Ongbonga, MadMojomonkey, Bankitdrew
(4) Wufwugy: Baudib, Monstrman, wufwugy
(4) Bigred: Keybored, Luco, a500lbgorilla, Hoopy
(1) Ongbonga: Rascal
(1) Luco: Daven

Not Voting: Bigred

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

You gave no rationale for your vote change. I just want to understand why you switched from Boog to Gabe.

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How about this:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Tie breaker goes to boog... I can't believe I'm considering voting for gabe after I just posted that.

It's a vote for rong, not gabe, just to be clear. I think gabe is too strong to kill on D1... but so's a lot of people here.
I could be wrong about the anti-spew... but the 2pac?

Does a comfortable person or a distraught person post lyrics?
Comfortable

What's the vibe in those lyrics?
Can I trust my partner? Do I have the strength to kill myself for the win?

I struggle to see a wolf latching onto that... am I totally off?

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And this:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

If the final vote was 7-5
And my vote was the last vote-action
Then it was 6-6 before my switch.
If it was 6-6, the tie would def go to boog.

The wagons were exactly equal with (from my POV) 1 wolf, 1 ? and the rest V's.
That is counting me as a V on boog before my vote switch.

So my switch put me voting with 1 more perceived V, and I thought rong was the wolfiest of D1.
The fact that the reasons for my vote went against the grain of everyone else on that wagon should have kept me off of it, in retrospect.

***
It was my decision, and ultimately it was based on my perceptions.
I was influenced to reconsider my vote by my what ong (I perceive as V) was posting and daven's (also V) encouragement of me to follow my gut and vote for the wolfiest player - which is what I had been saying is the correct play, and I stand by that method, even though I was wrong about rong.

***
ong looking very V with his open on D2. He has def. drawn a line in the sand, and I'm reading that as super villagery.
He's pulled his vote from himself, and rascal hasn't posted anything to defend ong's opening accusaions... so that could be a development, or it could be that ong is getting more action from his vote on baud right now.

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The first post was made just before your vote and talking about lyrics. Making a read from someone posting or not posting lyrics or pics or charts is role neutral and not making a true read, but more like trying to force a read on someone to support why you voted them.

The second post is much better, but it was made after the reveal so it doesn't mean as much, especially when you're saying there that you voted because of Daven and Ong.

Really? I thought I said this:
"It's a vote for rong, not gabe, just to be clear."
and this:
"It was my decision, and ultimately it was based on my perceptions."

No one but gabe thought I had anything but hot air with the lyrics read. However, in retrospect, it was correct. So was my read on gabe's anti-spew, which I also caught heat for. In retrospect, they were good reads. It looks like unreadable gabe has some leaks after all.

However, I said he was a V, then voted for him. Then said I had faith in him, but not his partner.

I feel like you are either grasping at straws or just need to reread the thread.

I see players post pics, lyrics and charts all the time. It's not a read IMO.

However, I did misread your vote being essentially for Rong rather than Gabe.

Why the vote on Rong? I had him as a villa while I thought Gabe was wolfy.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I think this is where we're at:

Unofficial Vote Count!
(5) Baudib: Boog, Ongbonga, MadMojomonkey, Bankitdrew
(4) Wufwugy: Baudib, Monstrman, wufwugy
(4) Bigred: Keybored, Luco, a500lbgorilla, Hoopy
(1) Ongbonga: Rascal
(1) Luco: Daven

Not Voting: Bigred

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(4) baud
(3) wuf

I assume bigred has the tie break lead

Updated

Unofficial Vote Count!
(4) Bigred: Keybored, Luco, a500lbgorilla, Hoopy
(4) Baudib: Boog, Ongbonga, MadMojomonkey, Bankitdrew
(3) Wufwugy: Baudib, Monstrman, wufwugy
(1) Ongbonga: Rascal
(1) Luco: Daven

Not Voting: Bigred

I think Bigred has the tiebreaker over Baud here, but I haven't had time to go back all the way to check.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

I see players post pics, lyrics and charts all the time. It's not a read IMO.

However, I did misread your vote being essentially for Rong rather than Gabe.

Why the vote on Rong? I had him as a villa while I thought Gabe was wolfy.

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Are you seriously just going to retrace D1 backwards with me?

RTFT.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

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Originally Posted by rong

I've still no real idea who to lynch. I kinda wanna lynch bid, I don't see why people think he seems villagery. Every time I read the thread I change my mind on people, which means I'm not getting clear feelings about anybody. If anything the more posts I read from anyone the more they stick in my mind and the more I think they could be a wolf.

Luco seemed weird, didn't really get his comments to/about mmm.

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This entire first paragraph is trite - banal even. Noob level analysis of every-game D1 activities.


Paging Mr. Ronk ... Paging Mr. Ronk
Mr. Ronk, please come to the customer service desk for your complimentary W-points.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

:puke:
I'm suddenly not feeling my W read on boog so much.

I don't love my vote on wuf. I like it some, but not nearly as much as my vote on ong last game.
Both ong and wuf pride themselves on their ability to talk their way out of lynch.

I *sigh* believe that the fear wuf revealed late yesterday was authentic, and it explains his frantic insistence on trying to bully everyone into revealing as self-preservation (not V-cred in itself, but it makes that ridiculous push of his make sense from a V perspective).

rescind wuf

lynch baudib

or ronk (maybe luco)

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Rascal risking his V-points by asking other people to tell him what to think about the game.

You can slide back to neutral.

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My vote on baud is going nowhere. (I still think baud has yet to show any Village spirit.)

I'm not voting gabe today. I could get on a rong wagon, though. :/

I can't bring myself to vote wuf. I'm wary of wuf talking his way out of lynch, but I believe he's given me enough to lean V.
Hoopy, on the other hand... IDK.

The other main wagon is boog, who I have as neutral, and not a V-lean.
I have slight V-lean on monstrman, and it's weak.

I can lynch boog
but I'd prefer to lynch from baud, rong, luco

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The only wagon with baud or rong or luco at EOD was the gabe/rong wagon.

lilrascal is not really behaving like a wolf in the shit.

I think I was wrong, and basically spazzed out. Good job that's not difficult to believe.

I don't think I'm wrong about baudib though. Check out the muliple times he says there's a high % chance of wolf between us, even though he thinks we're both villagers to varying degrees. His position on us doesn't add up... on the one hand, we're villagers, on the other we need to go. Baudib has been doing his best to maintain suspicion on us as a pair, while refusing to actually commit to a balls out wolf read on either of us individually.

baudib is wolf as fuck. lilrascal, I think I was wrong. I'm not saying sorry for spazzing though until I KNOW I was wrong!

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Originally Posted by JKDS

Mod Corner

Vote Count at Deadline
(7) Gabe : Ongobonga , Baudib, Boog, Lilrascal , Wufwugy, Daven, madmojomonkey
(5) Boog : BID, Gabe, Rong, Hoopy, Rilla
(2) Wufwugy : Keybored, Luco
(1) Baudib : Monstrman

Double Checking Vote Count Now.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

The only wagon with baud or rong or luco at EOD was the gabe/rong wagon.

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This is wrong. Baud was on Gabe, and Luco was on Wuf. I don't know why you'd include Rong in there, but he was on Boog.

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Originally Posted by lilrascal

This is wrong. Baud was on Gabe, and Luco was on Wuf. I don't know why you'd include Rong in there, but he was on Boog.

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I mean that of the 3 people I wanted to vote for, only one of them was lynchable.

boog/monstr
gabe/rong

I was on boog/monstr and I didn't have either of them as a W-lean.
I shifted to gabe/rong because I had rong as a W-lean. Also, I was voting in line with more people I read as V's by switching my vote.
There was absolutely no point is shifting my vote to baud/rilla at EOD when he (they) had only 1 vote.

I feel like I have this solved.

Assuming wolves are all split up, then wolves are in...

rilla/baudib
luco/keyb
wuf/hoopy
bigred/daven

I've cleared rascal because I think his willingness to die is sincere, plus hes still wolf hunting, rather than worrying about the mess I made.
I've cleared boog/monstr based on logic.
I've cleared mojo/drew based on reads.

If I'm wrong about any of my village reads, I'd reassess drew before anyone else.

There's a minimum of four villagers in my top list. Those villagers need to be assessing their partner.

My partner is so ASSessed. I Essed the shit out of his ASS.

(Not talking about chat inb4 BID denies.)

@Ong: I'm not sure about bigred/daven.

They are the lynchbait vote based on low post count, as wolves would obv want to attack people who aren't fighting back.

I get that people want more involvement from bigred, and I do too, but it's bigred. IDK.

What's your read on Daven's posts today?

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I think I was wrong, and basically spazzed out. Good job that's not difficult to believe.

I don't think I'm wrong about baudib though. Check out the muliple times he says there's a high % chance of wolf between us, even though he thinks we're both villagers to varying degrees. His position on us doesn't add up... on the one hand, we're villagers, on the other we need to go. Baudib has been doing his best to maintain suspicion on us as a pair, while refusing to actually commit to a balls out wolf read on either of us individually.

baudib is wolf as fuck. lilrascal, I think I was wrong. I'm not saying sorry for spazzing though until I KNOW I was wrong!

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Are you really this bad at math? I gave the numbers before. Other than Wuf/Boog, who are pretty much always wolves, and Rilla/BID, who are never wolves, everyone in the game is likely to be a villager, but can still be greater than rand to be wolves.

Take out BID/Rilla and there are 4 wolves in 11 players, so ~ rand to be a wolf is around 36%.

Even if the most likely alignment of Ong/Rascal is V/V, there's a wolf between them a high % of the time.

This is a pretty clever move by Ong if he's a wolf. "Hey my partner's probably a wolf, kill us" -- "Look I'm lock villager, I said my partner's a wolf," -- "oops just kidding, we're villagers."

At least Ong has admitted he's playing bad. Rascal, what's your take on this?

All of you ignoring the purity of the Boog wagon and Wuf's movement from non-wagon to Gabe without considering Boog are highly suspect. I especially expect more from Ong.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I feel like I have this solved.

Assuming wolves are all split up, then wolves are in...

rilla/baudib
luco/keyb
wuf/hoopy
bigred/daven

I've cleared rascal because I think his willingness to die is sincere, plus hes still wolf hunting, rather than worrying about the mess I made.
I've cleared boog/monstr based on logic.
I've cleared mojo/drew based on reads.

If I'm wrong about any of my village reads, I'd reassess drew before anyone else.

There's a minimum of four villagers in my top list. Those villagers need to be assessing their partner.

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Did you note that Wuf absolutely refuses to give his assessment of his partner despite admitting that sussing out a wolf partner would be pro-village?

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

@Ong: I'm not sure about bigred/daven.

They are the lynchbait vote based on low post count, as wolves would obv want to attack people who aren't fighting back.

I get that people want more involvement from bigred, and I do too, but it's bigred. IDK.

What's your read on Daven's posts today?

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daven looks good today, but he can look good as a wolf. bigred is unreadable. I can't see how we can afford to dismiss this as a clean pair.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

@Ong: I'm not sure about bigred/daven.

They are the lynchbait vote based on low post count, as wolves would obv want to attack people who aren't fighting back.

I get that people want more involvement from bigred, and I do too, but it's bigred. IDK.

What's your read on Daven's posts today?

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So in your own words, wolves want to attack Daven/BigRed yet you are voting for the person in the thread who has been most vocal about trying to get people off Daven/BigRed? Do you ever stop to consider the inconsistency of what you're doing?

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Originally Posted by baudib

Did you note that Wuf absolutely refuses to give his assessment of his partner despite admitting that sussing out a wolf partner would be pro-village?

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Yeah and I also happen to think wuf is a wolf.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

daven looks good today, but he can look good as a wolf. bigred is unreadable. I can't see how we can afford to dismiss this as a clean pair.

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This is lazy and you've given reads on BigRed in the past.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Yeah and I also happen to think wuf is a wolf.

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At last common ground. Vote for Wuf then or else you'll be making n00b WW 101 mistake.

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Originally Posted by baudib

This is lazy and you've given reads on BigRed in the past.

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I don't think I've ever had a serious wolf read on bigred, like ever. I wouldn't know what to look for. Maybe if he posted dogs.

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Originally Posted by baudib

At last common ground. Vote for Wuf then or else you'll be making n00b WW 101 mistake.

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What's that, you, my strongest wolf read, are asking me to vote in line with you?

Two words, three F's.

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Originally Posted by baudib

So in your own words, wolves want to attack Daven/BigRed yet you are voting for the person in the thread who has been most vocal about trying to get people off Daven/BigRed? Do you ever stop to consider the inconsistency of what you're doing?

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Yes.

If you only knew.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

What's that, you, my strongest wolf read, are asking me to vote in line with you?

Two words, three F's.

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Player A thinks Player C is a wolf
Player B thinks Player C is a wolf
Player A thinks Player B is a wolf

this is the dumbest thing you can do in WW

The dumbest thing I can do in ww, imo, is to willingly allow a wolf to influence my decision.

it should be

Player A thinks Player C is a wolf
Player B thinks Player C is a wolf
Player A votes for Player B

Do you want us to lynch wuf first so you can ask for village cred for bussing him? Is that what you're trying to do here baudib?

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

The dumbest thing I can do in ww, imo, is to willingly allow a wolf to influence my decision.

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I'd sign that.

No, I want you to lynch Wuf cuz he's a wolf and if you lynch me and Rilla we're gonna lose.

Don't lynch me or we'll lose.

Really baudib.

You're stooping to don't lynch me or we lose.

Ong, if you're a villager and me and Rilla buy it then good luck with the rest of this crew. You've got MMM who says wolves do one thing and then votes for the guy specifically not doing that thing, and Luco who is unengaged and uninterested. At least you've got Daven, who should be up to speed about Day 2 events by Wednesday or Thursday.

glgl

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Don't lynch me or we'll lose.

Really baudib.

You're stooping to don't lynch me or we lose.

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yes because it's true. I've been as open and involved as I possibly can be and you think I'm possibly still a wolf somehow. This is easily the worst game you've ever played.

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Originally Posted by baudib

No, I want you to lynch Wuf cuz he's a wolf and if you lynch me and Rilla we're gonna lose.

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Village can't lose with less than 4 V-V mislynches.

Baud is seriously fear mongering with the whole "I'm a V and if you lynch me we lose."

Not that I believe he's a V. Even in the off chance baud/rilla is V/V, then that's it's hardly a "we lose."

It'll suck, but it will be far from over.

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Village can't lose with less than 4 V-V mislynches.

Baud is seriously fear mongering with the whole "I'm a V and if you lynch me we lose."

Not that I believe he's a V. Even in the off chance baud/rilla is V/V, then that's it's hardly a "we lose."

It'll suck, but it will be far from over.

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It'll be over. Zero chance you get the order right when this LDFO lynch is Wuf or Boog today and you do something else. I'll give Wuf enough credit for having the balls to figure out a play to get through another day and Ong is going to dominate the thread with his "omg i'm a villager so Boog is a villager for raisins" line.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I don't think I've ever had a serious wolf read on bigred, like ever. I wouldn't know what to look for. Maybe if he posted dogs.

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I lol'd irl hard

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

They are the lynchbait vote based on low post count, as wolves would obv want to attack people who aren't fighting back.

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Just because "wolves would want XYZ" broadly, that doesn't mean or even imply that "all wolves will do XYZ."

It just means that doing XYZ is easy, and wolfy.
It would be stupid for all wolves to always do XYZ, because that's obviously wolfy.
So at least 1 wolf will not do XYZ, and may even howl about how bad XYZ is for cred.

It's not a hard-and-fast rule that all wolves will attack lynchbait.

Just think, if we don't lynch baudib today, we have this to look forward to again tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Just think, if we don't lynch baudib today, we have this to look forward to again tomorrow.

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who's fear mongering now? :p

Rilla and I are easily the most likely V-V in the game, this is just horrible game theory if you lynch me.

Wuf is playing nothing at all like his normal village game and Boog has contributed absolutely zero. The link between Wuf and Boog is clear as daylight. The movement from Boog to Gabe is wolfy as fuck, despite what Ong says, and Wuf's shift is the wolfiest (or second wolfiest, after MMM, who is likely just clueless).

I don't work as a wolf with a single player in the game, except maybe Rascal, but that's iffy at best.

Furthermore not a single one of you except Monstr knows what to expect from me as a villager so 100% of the "Baud does XYZ" or "Baud seems XXX" are rendered totally meaningless.

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Originally Posted by Keybored

I'm 80% drunk but even through beer goggles this seems 100% bassackwards. If we proceed on this path the game is def over. But not in favor of the village. Jeez, Baud, this roadmap for what NOT to do is redonk. You're a much better wolf than this. What happened??

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who would you kill then and in what order? Are you saying Wuf-Boog are likely villagers?

That post from Keybored is horrendous. Discrediting without offering differing opinion, saying it's anti-village while expecting me to do better as a wolf, when a wolf would obviously be doing well to promote something that's anti-village. That's a lot of excuses and contradictions in a very short post.

P.S.

Daven: Giving Keybored V-cred for busy work is laughable. If there's anything Keybored has proven it's that he can put in busy work and produce useful lists as a wolf.

He said he was drunk. Don't expect high quality.

i've had a quick skim through day 2 now. About to do a thorough readthrough.

based on day 1 and the skim i think that keybored is pretty near to lock villager - general feel plus his vote count posts late on day 1 don't seem like something a wolf would do. BID is getting pretty close to lock villager too, based on his posting, his lack of a slip-up indicating that he's a wolf, and mmm's partner read (noting this does not clear mmm).

here's a soulread guess at a wolf team for ya: baudib/luco//mmm/one of [hoopy/wuf].

i want to hear more from lilrascal on ong.

we should be able to generate a lynch path to victory from this point, as per gabe. working backwards
i'm not lynching luco/keybored or mmm/bid today cos my two village reads mean there are better options.
i'm obviously not lynching bigred today - i'm definitely not clearing him though.
i don't think ong/lilrascal is ideal today.

that leaves boog/monstr, baudib/rilla, or hoopy/wuf.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by daven

i've had a quick skim through day 2 now. About to do a thorough readthrough.

based on day 1 and the skim i think that keybored is pretty near to lock villager - general feel plus his vote count posts late on day 1 don't seem like something a wolf would do.

---

perfect Xpost Daven

Daven makes the same mistake as Ong ~ 40% of the time.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by daven

i've had a quick skim through day 2 now. About to do a thorough readthrough.

---

it's messing with my head. I want to join either the baudib or the wuf wagon. Either has decent probability of snagging a wolf, feel of baudib's tone today has been aggressive defence which seems wolfy but i dunno, i always want to lynch wuf and he feels wolf too so. meh. Day 2 is feeling like a whole lot of noise.

what do you mean re the x-post comment baudib?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

perfect Xpost Daven

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why did you quote the first part of my post and ignore the team part as well as the lynch pathway part?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

Daven makes the same mistake as Ong ~ 40% of the time.

---

?

Mod Corner

Vote Count!
(4 leads) Bigred: Keybored, Luco, a500lbgorilla, Hoopy
(4) Baudib: Boog, Ongbonga, Madmojomonkey, Bankitdrew
(3) Wufwugy: Baudib, Monstrman, wufwugy
(1) Ongbonga: Rascal
(1) Luco: Daven

Day 2 Ends in 23.75 hours (11pm MST Sunday)

Q&A

Q: Will you change it so we vote for teams instead of for people?
A: No. Good god man, are you hourly?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by daven

why did you quote the first part of my post and ignore the team part as well as the lynch pathway part?

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because the rest of the post is you blathering on about dead villagers. Daven, dead villagers played worse than you did and have half the information as you.

Keybored has been a consistent D2 mislynch as a villager, except for one time when he was a N1 vig shot. When he appears helpful and involved, he's a wolf. you were in the ghost angel game, you should know this.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

because the rest of the post is you blathering on about dead villagers. Daven, dead villagers played worse than you did and have half the information as you.

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i disagree. A villager who gets lynched isn't the same as a villager who has played badly. Why are you mis-representing things so much?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

Keybored has been a consistent D2 mislynch as a villager, except for one time when he was a N1 vig shot. When he appears helpful and involved, he's a wolf. you were in the ghost angel game, you should know this.

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so your read this game is keybored = wolf?

I'm not misrepresenting anything. I am in fact incorporating a portion of Gabe's read on Boog because I have no experience with Boog. But rereading dead villagers has about 1/100th the value of weighing in on more recent developments. It'd be more interesting if Gabe were nightkilled but that can't even happen this game.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by daven

so your read this game is keybored = wolf?

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He's not at the top of the list but yes. Even if strictly by PoE, there's no room for him in the village if you and BR are villagers IMO.

Go back and reread some of the Ghost Angel game that Wuf modded if you need a refresher. Keybored was easily the most objectively wolfy player in the game, hopping around from wagon to wagon -- "flavor of the day" as some put it -- with little to no reasoning for his switch. He also largely ignored Ong despite the two of them being the most active players in the thread. He got by doing lots of busy work and producing list after list and MQ after MQ.

he's doing a tempered version of that here.

I can't even tell by looking at the playerlist/votecounts who I would vote for besides wuf and I just find myself not liking any of the other options.

I don't think baudib/rilla contains a wolf

Ong posted pretty hard at a few points this game and I didn't sense any agenda behind any of his posts, from what I remember.

I'm too scared to move to bigred because I think wuf is a wolf. Sorry dude, I mean it sucks sometimes but I just need you to die. I can't reconcile considering any of the other wagons until you're gone.

Did we get who wuf's partner was?

Or I guess, do we have who wuf's partner is?

If we're gonna cfd I'm down for whoever baudib chooses

Not that it matters since we have all day, but still I work tomorrow again so I'll check in but won't be back till later tonight

I shouldn't even be playing right now but here I am

I really hope I'm not clearing you wrongly baudib.

I really don't read you well at all

Like just thinking about it you've beaten me every time you've wolfed against me i think

Wuf's vote is in a very lame and unproductive spot. Unfortunately he has explained that he does not want to give me any reads and, I may be adding my own words here but more or less told me to "suck it nerd, I'm ignoring you "

Well okay he said "you're joining (other player here) in being ignored but still. At this point in the game if you're a villager all you can do is get your reads out there.

If you're a wolf dont fight this and the village will sort it out

Bigred seems like he'd be easy lynch bait.

At the very least baudib is a wagon of resistance.

voters on big red looking kinda sketchy

I would go luco or Hoopy overy Keybored I think

I'm guessing the next wolf play is switch from existing wagon to bus wuf.

That's my villager foresight

Ooh now I've leveled myself into being scared of voting for wuf

I forgot how exciting being overly paranoid can be.

I feel like ong/rascal prolly has a wolf in it.

Daven and rascal should vote be voting on wagons that don't start with (1)

Vote is supposed to be both.

I really can't words.

Anyway, night.

I'll check on the thread in the morning prolly and them I'm off to work

Monstr -- you were angel in the no-reveal game where I lost at F3

you read me well there and in most other games, even that Venture Bros. disaster.

Quick perusal of Vikings game (it took all of 90 seconds) shows that Keybored was a villager and never posted a vote count, which would have been really helpful at the time since I am the worst vote-counting mod of all time.

it took even less time searching the Ghost Angel game to find this gem of a confuzzled villager wrongly clearing Keybored:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

How on earth is Keybored ever a wolf? ever? in a million years?

This post is just 1 example of him doing real, heavy lifting for the village.

BID needs to respond to this fact to explain his key/doob hypothesis.

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As a villager in Vikings, Keybored was way more interested in confirming villagers than wolves.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Keybored

Keith's a villager.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Keybored

MoMo...Cuz his opening style is consistent with village Ong. Also, his early poke at me would not have been done if he's wolf due to our lingering W-W rep. I don't think he'd want to give ppl reason to make that connection. Finally, his confrontation with BID comes off villagery to me. I think wolf Ong would be less sensitive this early.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Keybored

MoMo is a villager.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Keybored

Keith was V.
Ong's a V.
MoMo's a V.
I'm V.V.

This is too easy.

---

Guess how many posts like this he has this game.

For all his huffing and puffing about how good his wolf game is, this would be a disappointing wolf game for wuf.

Guess I shouldn't have expected four hours to produce many posts. Oh well

Ya I guess baudib I was just thinking of the first game we played together actually.
you might be right I'm just worried is all.

It's prolly nothing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Luco

For all his huffing and puffing about how good his wolf game is, this would be a disappointing wolf game for wuf.

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So?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

At least Ong has admitted he's playing bad. Rascal, what's your take on this?

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I finally was able to work thru some things in chat. I now think Ong is most likely villa. I still carry some suspicion and will continue to reassess.

rescind

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

Did you note that Wuf absolutely refuses to give his assessment of his partner despite admitting that sussing out a wolf partner would be pro-village?

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I have noted that and it seems suspicious to me. There's only two reasons that I can think that he'd do that.

1) He's a wolf and his reason to not interact in chat is his way to avoid getting caught in two places (chat and thread) in the same game.
2) He's a selfish villa and is just looking to get himself further in the game rather than helping the village.

In either case, I think Wuf needs to go.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

Ong, if you're a villager and me and Rilla buy it then good luck with the rest of this crew. You've got MMM who says wolves do one thing and then votes for the guy specifically not doing that thing, and Luco who is unengaged and uninterested. At least you've got Daven, who should be up to speed about Day 2 events by Wednesday or Thursday.

glgl

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by baudib

It'll be over. Zero chance you get the order right when this LDFO lynch is Wuf or Boog today and you do something else. I'll give Wuf enough credit for having the balls to figure out a play to get through another day and Ong is going to dominate the thread with his "omg i'm a villager so Boog is a villager for raisins" line.

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Baud, I was starting to think you were villa on reread today, then I get to these posts.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

Village can't lose with less than 4 V-V mislynches.

Baud is seriously fear mongering with the whole "I'm a V and if you lynch me we lose."

Not that I believe he's a V. Even in the off chance baud/rilla is V/V, then that's it's hardly a "we lose."

It'll suck, but it will be far from over.

---

Now, I find myself agreeing with MMM here who I'm also suspicious of, but looks better based on this.

Man...I wish Keith were here, just to see him shit a brick over those consecutive Monstr posts. Ronk's def pissing himself in the dedthrd. Monstr, come on man, fluffing the post count or just unable to summarize?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

Rilla and I are easily the most likely V-V in the game, this is just horrible game theory if you lynch me.

Wuf is playing nothing at all like his normal village game and Boog has contributed absolutely zero. The link between Wuf and Boog is clear as daylight. The movement from Boog to Gabe is wolfy as fuck, despite what Ong says, and Wuf's shift is the wolfiest (or second wolfiest, after MMM, who is likely just clueless).

I don't work as a wolf with a single player in the game, except maybe Rascal, but that's iffy at best.

Furthermore not a single one of you except Monstr knows what to expect from me as a villager so 100% of the "Baud does XYZ" or "Baud seems XXX" are rendered totally meaningless.

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I disagree with the first bolded. I don't think there's a really clear V-V partnership in the game ATM.

With regards to the second bolded. I'd like to clarify this for the other players here (monstr will already understand this). I've played a lot of turbo ww games with Baud on another site. A turbo game has 9 players and has 20 minute days and lasts about 90 minutes. In that time there will be somewhere between 300 and 500 posts. I have been a wolfbro with Baud in that format, but it's not equivalent to a slower game, so I can't base his wolf game on that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Keybored

Man...I wish Keith were here, just to see him shit a brick over those consecutive Monstr posts. Ronk's def pissing himself in the dedthrd. Monstr, come on man, fluffing the post count or just unable to summarize?

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In defense of monstr's posting style, that's the more common method of responding where we both play ww.

You'll notice that I'm doing the same thing.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by daven

i've had a quick skim through day 2 now. About to do a thorough readthrough.

based on day 1 and the skim i think that keybored is pretty near to lock villager - general feel plus his vote count posts late on day 1 don't seem like something a wolf would do. BID is getting pretty close to lock villager too, based on his posting, his lack of a slip-up indicating that he's a wolf, and mmm's partner read (noting this does not clear mmm).

here's a soulread guess at a wolf team for ya: baudib/luco//mmm/one of [hoopy/wuf].

i want to hear more from lilrascal on ong.

we should be able to generate a lynch path to victory from this point, as per gabe. working backwards
i'm not lynching luco/keybored or mmm/bid today cos my two village reads mean there are better options.
i'm obviously not lynching bigred today - i'm definitely not clearing him though.
i don't think ong/lilrascal is ideal today.

that leaves boog/monstr, baudib/rilla, or hoopy/wuf.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

perfect Xpost Daven

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by daven

it's messing with my head. I want to join either the baudib or the wuf wagon. Either has decent probability of snagging a wolf, feel of baudib's tone today has been aggressive defence which seems wolfy but i dunno, i always want to lynch wuf and he feels wolf too so. meh. Day 2 is feeling like a whole lot of noise.

what do you mean re the x-post comment baudib?

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by daven

why did you quote the first part of my post and ignore the team part as well as the lynch pathway part?

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

because the rest of the post is you blathering on about dead villagers. Daven, dead villagers played worse than you did and have half the information as you.

Keybored has been a consistent D2 mislynch as a villager, except for one time when he was a N1 vig shot. When he appears helpful and involved, he's a wolf. you were in the ghost angel game, you should know this.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by daven

i disagree. A villager who gets lynched isn't the same as a villager who has played badly. Why are you mis-representing things so much?


so your read this game is keybored = wolf?

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

I'm not misrepresenting anything. I am in fact incorporating a portion of Gabe's read on Boog because I have no experience with Boog. But rereading dead villagers has about 1/100th the value of weighing in on more recent developments. It'd be more interesting if Gabe were nightkilled but that can't even happen this game.



He's not at the top of the list but yes. Even if strictly by PoE, there's no room for him in the village if you and BR are villagers IMO.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

Go back and reread some of the Ghost Angel game that Wuf modded if you need a refresher. Keybored was easily the most objectively wolfy player in the game, hopping around from wagon to wagon -- "flavor of the day" as some put it -- with little to no reasoning for his switch. He also largely ignored Ong despite the two of them being the most active players in the thread. He got by doing lots of busy work and producing list after list and MQ after MQ.

he's doing a tempered version of that here.

---

This interaction between Baud and Daven looks good for Daven and bad for Baud. Baud isn't that bad at reading posts and misreading/misinterpreting Daven's posts is bad Baud.

Also Baud saying go read other games is just lazy IMO and is not helpful. It's also a contradiction by Baud saying "ancient history" is infinitely less valuable than interaction. Referring to another game is definitely "ancient history", but rereading this thread is not "ancient history".

Baud is definitely going up on my wolf list, but I'll finish catching up before I make a vote.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

Go back and reread some of the Ghost Angel game that Wuf modded if you need a refresher. Keybored was easily the most objectively wolfy player in the game, hopping around from wagon to wagon -- "flavor of the day" as some put it -- with little to no reasoning for his switch. He also largely ignored Ong despite the two of them being the most active players in the thread. He got by doing lots of busy work and producing list after list and MQ after MQ. he's doing a tempered version of that here.

---

BAUDIB...What you say above is accurate. For ref use: Ong/Keybored were wolves together who eventually won. It was my 3rd or 4th WW game ever and I was completely riding on Ong's coattails. He did the battling and I did busy work to look active. Foot note, Rilla was a wolf that game also and he up/quit day2 cuz of it. Dude don't like or play wolf (weird, but somehow true).

But this game is different. There are no specials or night actions! Nobody has to worry about getting killed (only lynched). To win, the village only has to keep its V-V pairs alive. I'm >90% sure my partner is V, so as long as everyone else is throwing spears around, I find it my responsibility to avoid stray bullets; aka, keep my foot out of my mouth. Is that wolfy, lurkish behavior? Sure. But if you've watched my partner, Luco, you'll see he's done a rather poor job of keeping his head down. But it's tough to hold back when so much shit is flying around and you've got an opinion on most of it. FWIW, I also believe BID/MMM and Ong/Rascal are in the same category. IMO, these 3 pairs are the key to village success and need to be protected.



Assuming all wolves are paired with villagers, to provide you with my reads...
THERE IS A WOLF IN EACH OF THESE PAIRS:
Baud-Rilla
Wuf-Hoppy
Boog/Monstr
Daven/BigRed

My vote has been sitting on BigRed cuz there's two things I hate most in this game: non-voters, non-players. The BigRed wagon has had some momentum yet he still remains MIA. That ain't right; now and esp down the road. In the second half of the game, if Red is still around, we'll have zero info to work with and that's not acceptable.

However, if the Baudib wagon get near to 8 while the BigRed wagon remains low, I'll snap lynch your ass in a second.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

Monstr -- you were angel in the no-reveal game where I lost at F3

you read me well there and in most other games, even that Venture Bros. disaster.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

Quick perusal of Vikings game (it took all of 90 seconds) shows that Keybored was a villager and never posted a vote count, which would have been really helpful at the time since I am the worst vote-counting mod of all time.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

it took even less time searching the Ghost Angel game to find this gem of a confuzzled villager wrongly clearing Keybored:

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

As a villager in Vikings, Keybored was way more interested in confirming villagers than wolves.









Guess how many posts like this he has this game.

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Baud, what do you expect us to do with this? You've cherry picked quotes from "ancient history" games.

How do I know how to interpret any of that since it's so out of context? And no, I'm not going to go and reread old games. Reading old games isn't that useful, every game is different.

Baud, if I wanted to quote damning quotes like you did, I'd do them from this game. Like this one:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baudib

Are all of you incapable of reading? I'm not blaming anyone.

If Gabe flips V then have at me, I'm owning it.

---

In isolation this post looks bad for you, but when taken into context it's actually neutral. I'm one of the ones that pushed you to not be wishy washy in your vote. So, I don't find this isolated post incriminating because it's out of context.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lilrascal

In defense of monstr's posting style, that's the more common method of responding where we both play ww. You'll notice that I'm doing the same thing.

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Makes sense...One can get waaay behind while typing Wuf-alogs, even in these FTR-WW slow threads. Point taken.