AI w/JJJ vs Gutshot

Villain is 28/17 over 127 hands. Fit/fold player post flop. He didn't really go to showdown much.


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1.60)
SB ($1.17)
Hero (BB) ($5.49)
UTG ($5.31)
UTG+1 ($1.85)
MP1 ($3.58)
MP2 ($0.73)
CO ($2.62)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
UTG bets $0.12, 3 folds, CO calls $0.12, 2 folds, Hero raises $0.46, UTG calls $0.36, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.09) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, UTG calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.49) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.70, UTG raises $3.40, Hero raises $2.61 (All-In), UTG calls $0.73 (All-In)

River: ($10.75) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $10.75

Results below:
Hero had Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif (three of a kind, Jacks).
UTG had Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: UTG won $10.22


This may have been my fault cuz I didn't put him on a range, however this seems like a cooler. That may be just because it tilted me. I checked the sit out next hand box just when this hand started. I was done for the night, getting tired, up about 270bb in the last 3 hrs; the best I have done in one session. But I still was ahead when I got it in, so I still felt good about that I guess. Sorry if this sounds like a bitching thread, I really do have a question...

So, was this a std cooler, or should I have put him on a range and been weary? I don't particularly think I would have played it differently; would you have?

Oh well, I'll be back at the grind again tomorrow night... :)

Always try to put them on a range. Once you bet turn that size you are committed, but stacking off here is usually fine.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bhaley66

But I still was ahead when I got it in.

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[ ] OP was ahead when he got it in

Are you fucking serious?

Yes, put him on a god damn range.

Why is a 250bb laggy player whom you know nothing about on your immediate left?

yes i am fucking serious...

And i know i need to put him on a range, i admitted that mistake...

Was your yes an answer to my question? I didn't ask if I needed to put him on a range. I know I do.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eugmac

[ ] OP was ahead when he got it in

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oops, idk what i was thinking i guess...

This is what I meant by I don't think I would have played it different if I had put him on a range...


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,300 games 0.001 secs 3,300,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 4d 2d Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 84.515% 84.52% 00.00% 2789 0.00 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 15.485% 15.48% 00.00% 511 0.00 { 99+, ATs+, ATo+ }


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Quote:

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Originally Posted by bhaley66

I didn't ask if I needed to put him on a range. I know I do.

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Actually yes you did. And you cant discuss a hand history without doing this. Ranges is all poker is about. Its everything.


EVERYTHING. EVERYTHING EVERYTHING

You cant make a single action without doing this. You cannot justify a decision without it. You cannot fold, call, raise, bet, w/e without doing this!!! Not doing this is A HUGE ASS LEAK!

You chose to 3bet pre. Why? The only time i would ever consider 3betting JJ is after i put my opponent on a range and determined that he was calling with enough worse to make this profitable. I would never blindly 3bet an utg players open who also happens to have my massive stack covered. Its literally lighting money on fire.

If you determined u could 3bet pre for value then the flop is meh. Its good that his 77-99 probably call a street and his fd's call a street and he might have AT in his range...maybe...and maybe he also 4bets QQ+,AK so we can bet here profitably. You need a range to do this though! If the guy only continues to a flop bet with QQ+ and AdKd then betting is clearly wrong!

If you determined you could bet the flop for value, then the turn is awful. Ya, we have a set now. What calls when we bet? 99-88 probably fold now. AT has a hard time. Hes fit or fold so he isnt floating us very often and doesnt have many broadways that hit this and can continue. Whats worse is a flush is now possible as well so these smaller hands we got value from on the flop are pretty scared. Hands like AT with a diamond call, flushes call, thats really it.

However, maybe we played the flop bad and he has TT, AA-QQ in his range even though we thought we were betting for value. Then the turn is completely standard because these hands likely stack off still and he wont have a flush often enough really.

But u see the point ya? Every single decision is altered by what range we put villain on. We cant reasonably do a single thing without putting villain on a range!

That was epic JKDS :)
so true..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

Why is a 250bb laggy player whom you know nothing about on your immediate left?

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Can you expand on this comment please? I'm curious as to how we're to determine he's laggy if we know nothing about him. I assume we want this guy to our right, yes? When you realise that a laggy player is sitting to your left, do you try and change seat? What if the table is full? Move table? Stay seated and tighten up? Loosen up? I'm genuinely curious to know, because it annoys me when I'm to the right of a maniac, that's for sure. But I wouldn't consider this guy a maniac, he's lurking around average. When finding a table, are you looking for a maniac with an empty seat on the left? That would make sense.



As for this hand, I don't like the 3bet with JJ pf too much, especially from an UTG raise, but after that it's a pretty dire situation. When UTG raises, AKs is always in his range, so we must be weary of the turn, especially after he calls our decent flop bet. But even if we flat his raise, are we really folding top set through fear of flush? It's a great bluff card for him if he has AKo with a diamond, and at 2nl it could easily be AKo even after the flop, so I'm probably stacking off here regardless of what we did pf, I'm raising the turn to protect my hand from what is either a gutshot and a flush draw, or a hand that's crushing me but will lose twice in nine hands on the river. I'm happy this is AKo one in nine times and that we're taking the pot down with our turn bet maybe three times in nine, so he has us beat, in my opinion, five times in nine here, and we fill up twice in nine. I think this is marginally profitable if we go wild on the turn, but my maths might be flawed. QQ is rare enough here to consider that a genuine cooler, I can't see it affecting the odds greatly.

Your title of this thread suggests the villain was drawing to a gutshot... did you not notice the flush? Did you think he had gone mental with a gutshot and two overs? If he has AKo, then yes, this is a cooler for sure, I'd want to force feed him the chips he's won. But when the chips go in, his gutshot is quite irrelevant, he has the nut flush.

* edit
Of course, KK and AA are in his range, he might not 4bet pf with these, and these pay us off on the turn, especially if there's a diamond in the hand. This adds to our equity at the turn. TT is paying us off too.

Not to belabor the point, but look what happens if you change your range against this opponent. You know he's fit-or-fold, so his turn raise means he has a monster. Now, what monster does he have?

If his preflop call 3bet range is wide, then his likely range here is: TT,AdTd,AdQd,AdKd. You have 53% equity, so shove the turn.

If his preflop call 3bet range is very narrow, then his range is probably just AdQd,AdKd. You have 22.7% equity, so it's probably a fold.

Plus -- all the points JKDS made about your preflop/flop actions.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

When you realise that a laggy player is sitting to your left, do you try and change seat? What if the table is full? Move table? Stay seated and tighten up? Loosen up?

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If you can move to a different seat at the table, do it. If you can't, leave the table and find a better one. With a maniac to your immediate left, you will be out of position for all hands except when you have the button. Even if you manage to make money against him, your variance will be insanely high and your session against him will be very frustrating.

In the future do not post results or I'll lock your thread.

Read http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ds-162741.html, then read it again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

Actually yes you did. And you cant discuss a hand history without doing this. Ranges is all poker is about. Its everything.


EVERYTHING. EVERYTHING EVERYTHING

You cant make a single action without doing this. You cannot justify a decision without it. You cannot fold, call, raise, bet, w/e without doing this!!! Not doing this is A HUGE ASS LEAK!

You chose to 3bet pre. Why? The only time i would ever consider 3betting JJ is after i put my opponent on a range and determined that he was calling with enough worse to make this profitable. I would never blindly 3bet an utg players open who also happens to have my massive stack covered. Its literally lighting money on fire.

If you determined u could 3bet pre for value then the flop is meh. Its good that his 77-99 probably call a street and his fd's call a street and he might have AT in his range...maybe...and maybe he also 4bets QQ+,AK so we can bet here profitably. You need a range to do this though! If the guy only continues to a flop bet with QQ+ and AdKd then betting is clearly wrong!

If you determined you could bet the flop for value, then the turn is awful. Ya, we have a set now. What calls when we bet? 99-88 probably fold now. AT has a hard time. Hes fit or fold so he isnt floating us very often and doesnt have many broadways that hit this and can continue. Whats worse is a flush is now possible as well so these smaller hands we got value from on the flop are pretty scared. Hands like AT with a diamond call, flushes call, thats really it.

However, maybe we played the flop bad and he has TT, AA-QQ in his range even though we thought we were betting for value. Then the turn is completely standard because these hands likely stack off still and he wont have a flush often enough really.

But u see the point ya? Every single decision is altered by what range we put villain on. We cant reasonably do a single thing without putting villain on a range!

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So, I just woke up feeling like a dipshit. In clear head I would have put him on a range.

Thank you for this post JKDS... Seriously.

I started the night practicing ranging and did so for a couple hours, I just began to get lazy I guess. I was done for the night when this hand started, and that is because I realized that I was getting lazy, and not paying enough attention. I need to continue to work on this very hard as well as many other things, however this is at the top of my list...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

In the future do not post results or I'll lock your thread.

Read http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ds-162741.html, then read it again.

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Will do spoon...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bhaley66

Will do spoon...

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Good because if you don't I'm going to smack you in the balls with Icy Hot.

lol, never had that done, but i dont think i want it done... i better be a good boy.

permission to troll?

JKDS' post, beginners digest imo.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Can you expand on this comment please? I'm curious as to how we're to determine he's laggy if we know nothing about him.

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Well 'nothing' was a slight exaggeration. We know hes a 25/17 over 120 hands or so, and i consider anyone who raises more than like 15% of hands to be laggy. That doesnt mean hes a good lag or anything, just that hes raising more than usual.

But, we dont really have any information on him ya? We think hes fit or fold...but the OP gives a range later that includes hands he would have had to float the turn with. We dont know how he plays his draws, anything about middle pairs, etc etc. Just that hes a 25/17...and maybe is fit or fold.

The problem though, is that typically a laggy player on your left is horrifying. They'll 3bet you, call u, raise u at random points, and make u have tough decisions. In a tournament situation, you'd develop a strategy to beat this guy and move on. But in a cash game at 2nl, there are many other tables where there isnt some wacko acting directly behind you. The effective stack against him being 265bbs is also something that is terrible. Now any mistake is generally gonna cost us more and maybe we're going to be playing a little scared money too which is obv worse.

Thanks for the insight into table position. It's something I'm going to think carefully about.

This is not a cooler... its a poorly played hand.

1. Generally give UTG raises respect no matter their stats. What happens if he 4-bets your raise pf? Does 3-betting JJ seem like such a good idea? And why are we 3-bet bluffing JJ when it plays so well postflop? It actually is a decent set mining spot but make sure you can check fold a 10 high flop if this is your plan.

2. Don't worry about what you should do on this turn.. just plan your hands better in the future and you won't have to rack your brain in spots like this. If we play poker with a plan and mentally form a range before every action, the act of playing a session will become much less of a chore. Let me put it this way, if you run into more than 1-2 "tough" spots every 3000 hands or so, you are making a lot of bad decisions pf and playing hands incorrectly right out of the gate.

I hope this helps. Don't get discouraged. It does get easier.. in about 1 million hands :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Outlaw

This is not a cooler... its a poorly played hand.

1. Generally give UTG raises respect no matter their stats. What happens if he 4-bets your raise pf? Does 3-betting JJ seem like such a good idea? And why are we 3-bet bluffing JJ when it plays so well postflop? It actually is a decent set mining spot but make sure you can check fold a 10 high flop if this is your plan.

2. Don't worry about what you should do on this turn.. just plan your hands better in the future and you won't have to rack your brain in spots like this. If we play poker with a plan and mentally form a range before every action, the act of playing a session will become much less of a chore. Let me put it this way, if you run into more than 1-2 "tough" spots every 3000 hands or so, you are making a lot of bad decisions pf and playing hands incorrectly right out of the gate.

I hope this helps. Don't get discouraged. It does get easier.. in about 1 million hands :)

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I have realized that this was a very poorly played hand. I am working very hard on putting people on ranges. I have this at the top of my list. However, I am having a very difficult time with it. Any ideas on exercises? I'm having a hard time figuring out where to even start. I don't get to play much, but have tons of time to study, and use all of it...

Thank you for the encouragement, I am working my ass of, and am not getting discouraged. Almost everything I have done in life has come to me with very little effort, this is definitely a challenge lol. However there is no way in hell I'm giving up, the challenge feels good!

Harrington on Online Cash Games has a few hundred pages devoted strictly to range forming and acting based on those ranges. Id recommend it if you are struggling...though its a lil pricey.

Other options or just other perspectives include Renton's ABCD theorem thats in the FR forum. Its explained well, but its not something you can grasp from just a single post. Ranges are something you just have to get used to doing via study and practice. If you dont put in a lot of work, its gonna be something thats foggy forever. Lucky for you though, theres a whole forum where you post hands and give ranges and reasoning...as well as a chat room where you can just ask questions about it.

Idk, ill point u in the right direction cuz i feel my first comment was too harsh (i was playing starcraft2 and the stupid zerg destroyed me in one campaign mission hehe)

100bb effective stacks, nlhe

Suppose a villain opens utg for 4x with a range of 99+, AJ+, and KQ. If you raise, villain calls with 99-JJ, AQ+, and QQ, raises KK+ sometimes and calls other times, and folds AJ and KQ.

Based on that info alone...which hands might we want to
1) raise for value? ie, its a mistake for villain to continue

2) raise to 12bb as a bluff? ie, does he fold enough of his range that 3betting as a bluff is profitable? read muzzards article on 3bet bluffing in the FR forum if you are lost here

3) call with?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

Harrington on Online Cash Games has a few hundred pages devoted strictly to range forming and acting based on those ranges. Id recommend it if you are struggling...though its a lil pricey.

Other options or just other perspectives include Renton's ABCD theorem thats in the FR forum. Its explained well, but its not something you can grasp from just a single post. Ranges are something you just have to get used to doing via study and practice. If you dont put in a lot of work, its gonna be something thats foggy forever. Lucky for you though, theres a whole forum where you post hands and give ranges and reasoning...as well as a chat room where you can just ask questions about it.

Idk, ill point u in the right direction cuz i feel my first comment was too harsh (i was playing starcraft2 and the stupid zerg destroyed me in one campaign mission hehe)

100bb effective stacks, nlhe

Suppose a villain opens utg for 4x with a range of 99+, AJ+, and KQ. If you raise, villain calls with 99-JJ, AQ+, and QQ, raises KK+ sometimes and calls other times, and folds AJ and KQ.


Based on that info alone...which hands might we want to
1) raise for value? ie, villain probably wouldnt call if he saw our hand

2) raise as a bluff? ie, does he fold enough of his range that 3betting as a bluff is profitable? read muzzards article on 3bet bluffing in the FR forum if you are lost here

3) call with?

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First off, Thanks.

Is it the 6-max book, or am I looking at the wrong one? I'm in the process of reading through NLHE T&P, but this is definitely next on my list if it has so much on ranges.

I have read, re-read, and read again Renton's ABCD Theorem, and feel like I somewhat understand it, but definitely don't fully, or prolly even half way grasp it. I am definitely struggling w/ranges.

Definitely don't feel like your being too harsh on me. I'm here to learn, and I'll take information anyway anyone wants to give it to me, as long as it is actually useful.

1) I feel like I'm putting way too much thought into this one, but I came up with 99+, AKs. Here is how I came up w/ what might be way off... His range consists of 84 combos; if he sees our hand (by your eg), I'm thinking that he is folding anything that is a dog. So, I figure cut his range in half, or close to it, and we bet the top half (actually little less than top half) for value so that most of the time he is a dog, and doesn't call.

Now, another way I was thinking about it which seems much more proper but I think some part of it has to be flawed:

We use the range w/the most +EV, so using the following ranges I have the corresponding equity against his continuing range you provided:

• 99+, AKs 55%
• TT+ 60%
• JJ+ 64%
• QQ+ 70%
• KK+ 76%
• AA 84%

We always have the same FE of 38% given the continuing range you provided.

Now for this example lets assume we stack off every hand (100BB) , I used the following eqaution,
EV=(FE*B)+(E)(1-FE)(100)-(1-FE)(1-E)(100)
for each of the above ranges, and came up with AA being the most [email protected]...

44.25=(.38*5.5)+(.84)(.62)(100)-(.62)(.16)(100)
44.25=(2.09)+(52.08)-(9.92)


2) We are risking 12BB to win 5.5BB, so, 12/(12+5.5)=~.69 or 69%. Therefore, we need him to fold more than 69% to make a 3b bluff profitable. However, as per your chosen ranges he is only folding to a 3b w/~38%. So, I see no reason to 3b bluff this villain.

3) I'm pretty damn tired, so I will revise all of this tomorrow, but I think that it would probably be whatever part of HIS range that we don't raise.

please do anyone chime in, and critique my logic... :)

Ya its the one based on 6max. But its so focused on assigning ranges and making distributions and such that its applicable to both equally well...and imho its better than T&P.

comments

1) ok i made a wording mistake here that i realized after i read your response. I dont mean that villain can see our hand and play perfectly. I just mean that IF he could see it, he wouldnt continue to our raise...so he'd be making a mistake based on the fundamental theorem of poker. It was a pretty terrible way to describe value betting on my part :(

That makes your first answer for this one bad...my fault again. sorry. We know hes calling with said range so what hands can we raise for value against that?

For your second answer...its an interesting way to go about it, but you have to account for the probability of each range occurring as well. I dont much like it for this question.

2) bingo

3) its certainly alot wider than just his range

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bhaley66

I have realized that this was a very poorly played hand. I am working very hard on putting people on ranges. I have this at the top of my list. However, I am having a very difficult time with it. Any ideas on exercises? I'm having a hard time figuring out where to even start. I don't get to play much, but have tons of time to study, and use all of it...

Thank you for the encouragement, I am working my ass of, and am not getting discouraged. Almost everything I have done in life has come to me with very little effort, this is definitely a challenge lol. However there is no way in hell I'm giving up, the challenge feels good!

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The most important thing to always try to remember is (based on an opponents past actions) how does my hand stack up against his on this particular board. If I was thinking like him how would I play X range of hands on this board? etc.

For example generally: A10 on a 10-2-7 rainbow board is the nuts against a 44/35/5.5 and we should be trying to get it in by the river, however, against a 10/8/1.5 we should snap fold if raised on any flop/turn/river.

Why?

1. The range of hands mr. maniac would felt with are likely 22-AA, any 10x, A7/K7, 89. A ton of combos with only a few beating us.. and we can probably eliminate some of those based on the PF action.
2. Mr. Nit will likely only felt 22, 77, 1010, QQ-AA and we can safely fold to any aggression.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JKDS

Ya its the one based on 6max. But its so focused on assigning ranges and making distributions and such that its applicable to both equally well...and imho its better than T&P.

comments

1) ok i made a wording mistake here that i realized after i read your response. I dont mean that villain can see our hand and play perfectly. I just mean that IF he could see it, he wouldnt continue to our raise...so he'd be making a mistake based on the fundamental theorem of poker. It was a pretty terrible way to describe value betting on my part :(

That makes your first answer for this one bad...my fault again. sorry. We know hes calling with said range so what hands can we raise for value against that?

For your second answer...its an interesting way to go about it, but you have to account for the probability of each range occurring as well. I dont much like it for this question.

2) bingo

3) its certainly alot wider than just his range

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1) I'm feeling pretty damn lost right now, would it be just a range where we have greater equity than his continuing range? If so, just drop AQ out from his continuing range and use that?

3) Not a clue, but I feel this will somehow correlate w/our raising range. So I need to figure that out first?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bhaley66

1) I'm feeling pretty damn lost right now, would it be just a range where we have greater equity than his continuing range?

3) Not a clue, but I feel this will somehow correlate w/our raising range. So I need to figure that out first?

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1) itd be a range of hands where each hand in that range had >50% equity against his continuing range. So what hands fit that bill?

3)sorta kinda. the hands we cant raise for value but are still good are certainly in here. But against this villain we probably have great implied odds as well

Ding, Ding, Ding!!!

1) Damn I was kind of close w/my last post, I feel like that should have been obvious, so JJ+, AKs.

3) So hands with>50% equity against his initial opening range? AKo, AQs?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bhaley66

Ding, Ding, Ding!!!

1) Damn I was kind of close w/my last post, I feel like that should have been obvious, so JJ+, AKs.

3) So hands with>50% equity against his initial opening range? AKo, AQs?

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1) right. so we could raise for value and expect to show a profit by raising JJ+ and AKs because each hand is a favorite against his range.

JJ and AKs are a little special though, because theyre on the cusp. Since he folds KQ and AJ when we raise...it is likely more profitable to just flat and keep these hands in depending on how much he'll put in the pot with them later when we both hit. So while we could 3bet them....we may want to consider calling instead. Which one you choose is well...it depends

3) Those are certainly there too. Go wider still though. Him having such a tight range means alot for our weaker hands that love seeing flops.

Ok, what about something more along the lines of 98s, T9s, JTs, QJs, KJs+, AJs, AQs, AQo, & AKo?

I think you should prefer small pocket pairs over suited connectors from the blinds. The implied odds are more achievable if you hit your hand. JKDS and daven wrote a great article on playing suited connectors (Suited Connectors - Bluffing) and recommend folding SCs from the blinds.

Ok, I see, so we would want 22-TT for set value w/implied odds, more than we would want hands like 98s, T9s, JTs, QJs, or KJs+, AJs; correct? Where hands such as AQ, & AKo would still have enough equity as TPGK or two pair hands against his range?

i didnt specify if we were oop or ip though that certainly plays a factor.

basically for calling, we want hands that when they hit will just destroy villain, and hands that we couldnt 3bet for value but were good enough against his opening range. OOP we're not gonna play as many hands against this guy...and ip we'll play more.

So 22-TT are certainly there. When we hit a set we're pretty much gonna make an ass ton of money alot because villains range is fairly tight. Our hand will be disguised when we hit, and theres plenty of ways villain can hit as well when we do.

Suited connectors are there when we're IP just because it makes it easier to play guessing games with villain. His range is about 2:1 overcards to overpairs and we can pwn it a lot with the right flops

Then the hands like AJs and such are those that werent quite strong enough to raise but still have a good chance against his range. Again id prefer to be ip with these just because we'll be dominated sometimes.

Ok, I feel like I have a MUCH better understanding about HOW to think of/in such positions.

Thanks JKDS... and I'll be getting harrington on online cash games soon!