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BID: Im convinced one of Key and Dhub is a wolf at this point, but i have no idea which. Dhub is voted and pushed by all three of Rilla, Buadib, mmm, and Key iirc is defended in some ways by them. But im not confident dhub wasnt voted as a level (its too consistent that hes been hated on by all 3) or that key wasnt used as a scapegoat.
Dhuber posted his lynch nom 3 minutes after Luco's death announcement. He didn't scratch his head and wonder why Luco died or what it means to the village. He didn't take time to wonder who would have done that. He didn't try to factor this new info into any of the past events. He didn't offer any new information as to why he's continuing to park on his d1 soulread. He admits he doesn't analyze the thread and that he simply keeps up. And he makes us feel like crap by saying we're all overanalyzing this; like, the game's not that hard guys. He gives off an air of superiority that screams overconfident wolf to me. But here's the thing about this d4...a wolf knows way before anyone else what the kill is going to be. So a wolf wouldn't need to factor in what Luco's death meant, he's already done that. An overconfident, superior wolf pops off, "let's string up the next one" in under 3 minutes.
So, what if he's village? Can anyone give me a case to support keeping this kind of participant around any longer? He himself hasn't done so in the face of death and he won't now. He doesn't hunt. He doesn't assist. He doesn't bother. He just drafts off the crowd and wonders why we're working so hard. This choice is clear...
Lynch Dhubermax
This is why Dhuber didn't hesitate to snap lynch today.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
He made up his mind, waited for night, killed luco, waited for day, lynched ong.
The battle that transpired between JKDS/Ong isn't V-V.
An solid example of V-V infighting is BID/Luco.
The battle now raging between JKDS/MMM isn't V-V.
I've made my position clear about JKDS and I think each of us still alive has him on our list of poss wolves.
MMM's case against JKDS only bolsters my opinion.
The wolves are JKDS & Dhuber.
I'm done with Dhuber, so I'm parked on him now.
But if the vill prefers a JKDS lynch today, I'm in.
I see nothing wolf in MMM, BID, Ong, or Hoopy atm.
I agree that dhuber needs to get lynched today, confident he's a wolf now. Not going to vote him until everyone have said their bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Looks like dhuber decided to follow baduib to have something to say right here. Really it's restating the obvious which can be wolfy.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
Ong was all over baudib at this point. The looks like a chainsaw defense by dhuber by attacking his fellow wolf's attacker. Also what is he actually saying here? I can't follow it.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
Wolves not getting too close or too far apart on day 1.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
I know people say that dhuber is village for being attacked by both baudib and rilla. But really the pressure they put on him wasn't that significant or long lasting iirc.
JKDS is the last wolf.
He's stuck at the moment. Getting Ong lynched today would almost certainly mean him dying the next day. Attacking me or drew is difficult because neither of us make sense as wolves unless he is also one. Going after huber too much is bad because he's a fellow wolf. Keybored's style just looks very villager.
That just leaves MMM who he's forced to go after.
Aaaand I have flu. I actually just got up at 2pm.
Hoops post above is slightly concerning.
This quite strongly assumes I flip villager. I agree with hoopy here, but I know I'm gonna flip villager. If hoopy is a villager, he doesn't know how I'll flip.Quote:
Getting Ong lynched today would almost certainly mean him dying the next day.
I'm still not liking mojo's numbers slip. I need to eat though so I'll read up properly once I've done that.
Hoops...I hadn't thought of it from this perspective. I was banging my head to figure out why he moved to MMM. I see no reason to wait, tho. He's on everyone's baddy list already. MMM's already there. Ong was already. Now I'm in.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
Rescind and Lynch JKDS
Ok I'm finding it pretty hard to motivate myself into reading an 11-page game, or look individually at mojo and jkds, because it's a lot of hard work. So instead I'm just gonna read a page every hour or so and note my thoughts. By this time tomorrow I should have read through.
#16 JKDS votes for baudib after I tell baudib to shut up. Seems unneccesary for wolf on wolf and as such JKDS starts with a v point.
#26 doobs says he has a suspect but keeps the identity to himself, wolfy
^ this looks really bad now, given mojo's recent number issue. mojo defends baudib for instantly correcting himself. But ofc all that showed us is that baudib quickly realised that he fucked up and went into damage limitation mode. mojo using this to defend baudib is illogical... it doesn't explain why baudib got those numbers in the first place.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
#54 hoopy defends baudib, reminding us he got modkilled last game.
#57 is a huge post from mojo - starts off defending baudib. He then goes on to say that I'm on the same team and baudib, which gives him an easy target after baudib flips. This post is oozing with wolf motivation.
#62 jkds backs off baudib and then spoils my idea of waiting to see who jumps on a keybored wagon without thinking about the implications of putting a noob in the dead thread. He loses that v point he got earlier.
#70 doobs arrives. He immediately says baudib is wolfy and then says he doesn't want to lynch him. Leans villager with me and mojo. doober not looking great here.
#73 baudib picks up on what I just did and slaps a vote on doober for it. doobs looking better here.
Ok that's page 1.
JKDS and doob have marks for and against. mojo looking bad. More later.
Villagers look out for the town's best interests...
Hoopy last night: "We don't want to be bolding this early today, lets take our time and get it right."
Keyboard last night: "Just sayin' we can afford to take a timeout and breathe a little."
Dhuber on today: "...it's going to be -EV for the Village if I don't go back through the posts and come up with some more analysis now that my
Luco read turned out to be incorrect. Give me some time to do this, and I will post updated thoughts since."
Ong on today: "I'm just gonna read a page every hour or so and note my thoughts. By this time tomorrow I should have read through."
Wolves focus on hunting/killing...
BID: never slowing down
JKDS & MMM: battling it out
This is very surface level, the words aren't so important but intentions run deep.
Could be nothing but it could also be very telling.
Onto p2
#86 doobs votes for an inactive keybored despite jkds having recently pointed out that killing an inactive isn't smart. This kind of indicates that doobs isn't even reading everything before making his vote.
#90 gabe votes doober, saying he's being forceful with his words.
#91 baudib asks doober to clarify his vanilla comment. Remember that drew's vanilla comment went ignored by baudib.
#93 baudib gives v reads on mmm, hoopy and keyb. I found the hoopy read thin, and called him out on it.
#95 responds to me by saying it's normal hoopy, while admitting he hasn't seen hoopy wolf.
#97 mojo questions baudib about his reads, asking why jkds isn't a v read of his, also points at a gabe comment and asks how noone else has questioned it.
#99 baudib says jkds isn't wolfy, but simply talking about game mechanics is easy and not worthy of v points.
#109 baudib makes a really iffy post regarding rilla
#111 keybored votes baudib, albeit based on revenge, but if keyb is a wolf with rilla and baudib, he'd see that post is iffy and would be unlikely to draw attention to it by quoting it, let alone put extra pressure on baudib by voting for him. v points here for keyb.
#115 baudib want to hear more from doober. At the time that felt to me like baudib was trying to shift the focus onto him, that's more likely the case now we know baud is a wolf. v points for doobs.
#126 baudib reads post - three villager reads are mmm, jkds and hoopy... bound to be a wolf here... null reads are gabe drew keyb luco rilla daven, and wolf reads are me, doobs and keith. Not sure if baud would put a wolf in his wolf reads or keep it clean so he can attack villagers.
#133 doobs backs off keyb, citing me as opposed jkds. It really feels like doobs is only reading posts when he sees his name.
#134 baudib calls doober's post "fascinating", not wolfy, not villager, which is fence sitting. I'm seeing doobs wolf more and more.
#142 hoopy expresses surprise at baudib's townread on him. This is way after I call baudib out for that town read but it's still worthy of v points for hoopy... more likely imo that a wolf would quietly accept a town read from a buddy.
That's p2 done. doober looking worse.
@WUF:
So if the dead thread makes 2 angel saves, then on the next night there will be a revive, but since that revive uses the 2 remaining ghost angels, there is no block?
Is that right?
Hypothetically:
Let's say that on today and tomorrow, the village lynches 1 wolf and 1 vil. On both nights the ghost angel saves.
So that puts the game on day 6 with 5 living: 4v/1w and the dead thread having saved 2 times.
So if the village lynches a villager on day 6, then what happens that night?
Does the dead thread still get to vote for the ghost angel saves, having already activated the revive with their actions on the previous 2 nights?
Or do the wolves get an unblocked nom, and the dead thread elects a revive?
p3
#161 mojo agrees with my reasoning regarding the ong-keith shitfest
#162 mojo jumps on keyb saying we're unlikely to sniff a wolf out d1 and accusing him of appeal to emotion
#163 mojo suspicious of keith
#165 keyb thinks there's a wolf between me, keith and baudib and sticks with baudib. Looks good to me.
#166 doobs backs off baudib and says there's a wolf between me and keith. Swings for keith.
#168 pro-ong comments which justify his keith vote... passing the buck for when keith flips vill.
#169 mojo emphasises that me and baud are same team.
#173 jkds thinks this is standard keith.
#195 drew reads post - baud strong village lean, ends up voting me.
#196 drew then echoes pretty much what I'd been shouting at keith.
#199 doobs jumps on me for switching to baudib.
#225 keyb 50-50 between rilla and jkds based on lurking, goes for jkds because rilla is a super hero. I'd assume that if keyb is a wolf he'd have been warned that jkds should be respected. Seems honest.
I'm thinking this is mojo and doobs.
Here's the game tree, as far as I can tell.
The numbers in each box are
(living V) / (living W)
(dead V) / (dead W) (ghost angel saves)
An upward branch is pro-village, a downward branch is pro wolf.
For daytime, up means lynch W, down means lynch V.
For nighttime, up means ghost angel save, down means no ghost angel save.
Red boxes are illogical / can't happen because the number of GA saves is equal to the number of living.
Green boxes are the revives, which IDK what happens there.
It looks like the revive is not as sure-fire as I thought.
http://i.imgur.com/f5nSXXm.png
wtf is that, explain it to me like I'm an 8-y/o child because basically that's what I am.
I'm waiting until you actually call me out on something to respond.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I found the right side on you, so I'm confident you can find the right side on me.
How are you clearing JKDS all of the sudden?
We're currently on the left with:Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
5/2 -> 5 living villagers, 2 living wolves
(4/2) 4 -> 4 dead villagers, 2 dead wolves, and 4 ghost angel saves.
If we nail a wolf, then we take the top fork going into night. So over night we'd have
5/1 -> 5 living villagers and 1 living wolf
(4/3) 4 -> 4 dead villagers, 3 dead wolves, and 4 ghost angel saves.
If we mislynch, then we take the bottom fork going into night, So over night we'd have
4/2 -> 4 living villagers, 2 living wolves
(5/2) 4 -> 5 dead villagers, 2 dead wolves, and 4 ghost angel saves.
***
From whichever box we land in, there is a fork for whether or not an angel save happens... up is yes, down is no.
I'm not clearing him. It's just based on first 3 pages you and doobs look worse.Quote:
How are you clearing JKDS all of the sudden?
Does anyone else find this interesting:
Ong is wolf hunting by focusing on past know events.
MMM is not hunting, instead focusing on unknown outcomes in the future.
The mission of WW Villager is to outlive Wolves.
The goals are to find wolves and not mislynch villagers.
My hunting, here and now, is not affected by what might happen to numbers in a box on a diagram.
MMM is losing Mojo points with me today.
**Mad nerd points, however, for the badass chart.
I don't see wolf MMM putting in this much effort in an attempt to help the village understand future possibilities.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Although Keybored does make a good point... FML
MMM could have done it as a combination of wanting village cred plus personal curiosity.
p4
#229 mojo sees stuff between me and baudib that he doesn't like, swings for the wolf. Better from mojo.
#238 drew suggests baud is framing his teammate doobs.
#240 jkds begins swinging for me based on me not leading the charge on him for being afk and for attacking "easy target" baudib.
#241 baudib hi5's jkds for turning on me.
Approaching d1 lynch and it's me and baudib tied, hoopy and keyb are online but do not save baudib. +v points for them both.
#288 doob admits he sucks and promises to go through baud's posts.
#291 jkds admits he sucks.
#293 daven waves his finger at doobs.
p5
#334 drew swings for keyb, says he's willing to move onto me.
#335 doobs is all for me, despite the fact that d1 he was suspicious of my switch to him. He's done nothing with the flip, he hasn't read baud's posts like he promised, he's basically voting blind.
#337 luco - "the wolves are in gabe, huber, jkds, rilla "
#349 gabe doesn't like keyb's comments about not posting during the night.
#350 keyb retaliates by voting gabe.
#351 mojo comes swinging for me based on his idea that me and baud are same team.
#356 rilla votes doober.
#367 mojo backs off me because I suggest he's trying to be consistent, acknowledging I am right.
#369 keyb swings for hoopy.
That's p5 done.
Basically I'm still looking at doobs and mojo, but I know what's coming. JKDS accused me of going for an "easy target" in baudib, but when baudib flips wolf jkds doesn't stop to reassess, he still has me as a wolf and comes attacking with everything he's got. idk I'll see how I feel about all thathen I get there. For now it's still mojo and doobs looking worst imo.
I saw that chart and thought does a wolf ever do that... but wolves also like to know what their path is. He could've done that for the benefit of the wolves and realised that posting it is gonna look good.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
A) I am directly calling out JKDS, and I have him bolded.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
B) You wanted me to lay off so you could make up your mind.
C) I did lay off, but am still thinking about the game, so I've posted that, instead.
D) You take away my Mojo for doing what you asked.
I'm 99% pos. it's JKDS. My arguments are: JKDS's timing of not posting in earnest until he was about to get lynched is wolfy. Most of JKDS arguments are very thin, not compelling, and ill-formed.
Notice that JKDS can't explain the day2 vote with me as wolf and him as vil. His claim about how I voted on rilla, assuming I'm W and he's V is beyond me. Then he has the gall to say my arguments don't make sense, when my argument is that JKDS is capable of being much more clear, compelling and concise. His logical leaps and wild stabs are NOT him helping the village. His reactive timing is suspect; his reactive counterattacks are suspect; his appeals to emotion are suspect.
Why did JKDS's 2 strongest cases against someone (ong/me) come AFTER that person was accusing JKDS? This is reactive, not proactive JKDS, and another sign that he's wolfing.
You and ong are 99% cleared to me.
Dhuber, BID, Hoopy look the wolfiest, in that order, but none of them is a clear wolf. You want my case, then I'll give you my case against each of them.
P.S. Your Days of Thunder reference was downright epic, and won you plenty of personal points from me.
The first two pages are prominently baudib/ong/keith. I originally suspected Ong for his back-and-forth with Keith, but it comes off better now that I've gone through and looked at it again. There's a point on Page 1 (#14) where Ong smacks baudib after a series of posts... it seems genuine in retrospect. I still don't like Ong's conclusion at #155, a blatant "Keith is a wolf" statement like that worries me still. #158 is equally as troubling.
Keybored is "pressuring" baudib on Page 3, and that now seems genuine to me. JKDS was a "late comer," which I don't believe he would have been had he been a wolf. He also points out Keith Village tendencies in #173. There is one late-comer confirmed wolf, which is rilla. Keybored at #175 doesn't like the "no mod-kills" for inactives clause on Day 1... this could be a way to try to get rid of Villagers, who are less likely to come into the fold early on a percentage basis. Ong comes in on baudib wagon after daven posts. BID disagrees with daven's analysis on baudib at that time (so did I, I had reversed myself by this point). There's still more griping between Keith & Ong on Page 3... here Ong looks more suspicious imo.
Rilla opens Page 4 with a jab at Keybored, then votes for fellow wolf baudib... leading to a control of the Dead Thread as Keith had put it, but then he immediately reverses himself and goes to Keith lynch. I think Rilla's jab at Keybored is genuine, making Keybored more likely Villager here. BID in #232 wonders out loud about whether not mod-killing baudib may be because he's a wolf. It's a strong Village lean. Ong corrects him, but this is typical Ong and he consistently posts against trying to out-guess a WW mod. JKDS comes in and states Ong isn't being his typical Villager self, but then baudib comes right back and agrees. Ong checking Keith's online status at #280 and again outright stating he's a wolf is suspect.
Keith again makes a good point at #310 about possible Ong/baudib wolf team. Ong post #322 points out Rilla's inactivity and opines he's a lock wolf. This is a Village lean for Ong. Ong starts rilla wagon at #338. Luco thinks JKDS is a good wolf candidate as well as me, Gabe, & Rilla. Ong agrees. Keybored wants to look into daven/Hoopy connection at #366. MMM goes off Ong wagon at #367 and admits to trying to be consistent. Keybored wants to lynch Hoopy at #369. Ong continues to beat Rilla drum at #372... further making him Village lean.
Page 6+ to be continued...
MMM, no one cares what your opinion of my argument is. Say theyre emotive all you want. Say they lack logic all you want. But all anyone has to do is look at your posts, and look at when you made them, to come to the same conclusion I have. Sorry you dont like being caught.
You voted rilla when it was safe. You left it on b/c moving it would be suspect. You werent around when the wagon suddenly switched to rilla. You didnt vote me, because the last vote on a villager wagon is suspect.
Oh
You have been watching the vote counts like a hawk the whole game, you're keenly aware of what it will take for a wolf win, and now that heat is on you, you start posting charts and try demonstrating value. You're being far too obvious at this point, and all anyone has to do is look at the tone of your posts and see how they change from before Ong suggested you're a wolf and I attacked, and afterwards.
Actually #280 is where I realised keith is a villager.Quote:
Ong checking Keith's online status at #280 and again outright stating he's a wolf is suspect.
Page 6. daven wants JKDS wagon at #378. Hoopy is also suspicious of JKDS. MMM goes on rilla wagon, deferring away from JKDS at #389. Keybored also wants JKDS at #391... just so unlikely imo that he's wolf here. JKDS starts to look wolfy, but then at #395 he makes strong case for Village-cred when he names so many likely Villagers. MMM does some vote-counting at #406. BID post #415 is interesting. He wants Luco to go to Ong lynch and then blame BID if it turns out to be incorrect. This seems heavy Village lean to me. Hoopy goes rilla wagon at #418... I don't see Hoopy being a wolf here.
So to sum up so far, I think...
Strong Villager Potential: Ong (rilla wagon)/Hoopy (joining rilla wagon when he did)/Keybored (barb received by known wolf rilla)
Questionable: BID/MMM/JKDS
So to sum up what I've seen so far, I'm not joining in on any wagon that involves Ong, Hoopy or Keybored. I am in favor of lynching BID/MMM/JKDS but still need to look over Page 7+.
Most of a wolf's entire life is a lie.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Every word they post in relation to wolf hunting is false (except in the rare case of cannibalism).
Patterns of behavior, consistency, and voting history/accuracy are all forced actions.
Contradiction, back peddling, flip-flopping are giveaways.
POV slips and math errors are potential tells also.
Taking sides and alliance making is necessary and usually awkward.
Posting non-relevant information is easier to conjure and present.
All these activities are written down in the 800+ posts behind us.
The onus is on us to identify a wolf's behavior in those words.
It's the crux of the game.
Anything else is wasted effort (e.g., charting the future) and not helpful to the village.
It's why we don't "chat" in here or discuss the World Series going on right now.
Non-game info is accepted to explain absences or unusual behavior (sick, drunk, Disneyland, mtn climbing).
Every post (this one included) should be analyzed from this perspective.
--The most important questions:
"Did he say/do that as a vanilla-villager or a wolf-villager?"
"Does that help find wolves or hide wolves?"
"Is that helpful toward the village mission?"
Maybe we all know this already but I sense we're not all focused right now either...
Did you forget to add JKDS to that list?Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Page 7 -- Ong again wants JKDS at #456. The previous post where JKDS claims I'm "almost certainly a Villager" still is a soft spot for me. Could Ong-JKDS dispute be V-on-V violence? BID pays lip service to MMM at #461... it seems weird. But then he also pays lip service to JKDS in that same post. This comes off to me as BID-wolf including one known Villager and one known Wolf in a single post for the sake of deception. The question here (if BID-wolf is more than a suspicion) is which wolf would he mention first. Percentage-wise I think it would need to be the first one... but it's a very strange post regardless imo. BID then refers to "wolves' master plan" at #463. Luco lets his fellow Villagers know at #465 that JKDS has the "smartest" wolf game... good to know coming from him. JKDS bows out at #470... Luco makes him uneasy. JKDS' bowing out does seem a bit forced. Ong makes really good point at #475 about how baudib called me out for my "Vanilla" claim but let BID slide on it. Hoopy pwns me at #479, further leading to his Village-cred. MMM wants me & Keybored gone since we're weak Villagers according to his post, Keybored fires back with an MMM nomination. I don't like that justification from MMM myself, as it seems less analytical than what he would usually come up with. MMM makes interesting comment at #492 about if Ong flips Village, then "gabe-wolf" is done. Seems like he's already setting up a Gabe lynch for next day with possible knowledge that Ong will already flip Village. END PAGE 8
Right now I'm leaning BID as wolf with the question remaining between MMM & JKDS.
Current vote tally just so people are aware.
JKDS - 2(MMM, Keybored)
MMM - 1(JKDS)
No vote - Hoopy, BID, dhuber, Ong.
EDIT: END PAGE 7... I'm off to donate some points in OFC Hour but will be back later.
This. Even if the dead thread gets a revive or a blocked nom during a night phase, if the game reaches 2v2 or 1v1 at any point, it's overQuote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Thanks for the vote count Hoopy. Personally I'm more inclined to a BID lynch at this point with JKDS second and MMM third. Very interested in hearing arguments for and against this. I also still need to go through 4 full pages of content.
People have been asking for my opinions. I do say those things, and I note you're not denying anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Give me a reason to change my mind.
Which is it? Was I not paying attention to the rilla vote, or was I watching the votes like a hawk?Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
I don't even have to try to pull apart your accusations. They simply contradict themselves. You still haven't given a non-ridiculous theory about my vote on rilla. You keep popping up a new theory and saying that it's your same theory, but that's not evident.
Furthermore, your argument hinges around me (as a wolf) voting rilla instead putting the nail in your coffin (as a vil) when I could easily have done so. When I posted my comment affirming my vote on rilla, I could easily have jumped on your wagon.
You have not offered any reasonable explanation for this series of actions.
I'm trying to pull together my read on dhuber, but it takes time.
#26 dhubermex's first post (a response to my first post, neither is in-game conctent.)
Who was that masked man? I mean suspicious poster?Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermexI put in a request to our development team and am hopeful they will get back to me some time nextQuote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
week on whether this will be possible. From the little feedback that has been posted on the idea,
how much a vote-counting bot will add (or perhaps even take away) from the awesome content we
typically have in our WW matches.
With that addressed, I'm looking forward to this format to see how it turns out. I'm already
suspicious of one poster, but will keep that to myself for now as it's pretty much a crapshoot so
far unless someone can infer valuable info from baudib's posts.
dhubermex's 2nd post
dhubs defends baud and give ong and me a village lean, going so far as to agree with me. HisQuote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
comment about Luco is neutral.
Ironic that this is one of his highest content posts and he says he has nothing useful to
contribute.
post #123
baud makes it a point to bring up that his vote is on dhoobsQuote:
Originally Posted by baudib
baud brings it up again.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
post #133 dhubermex responds to post #91
doobs credits ong for the comment about lynching inactives. (I thought JKDS made that comment first. Would dhubermex make this mistake if he's a wolf with JKDS?)Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermexSure. My post was just a reference to the fact that this is the first WW match where I am neither or Wolf or a Special... with no particular reference to the stipulations of this particular match where there are only WWs and VVs.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
As Ong pointed out, lynching inactive is not +EV for village so I am going to rescind that vote.
Rescind Keybored
Extending Day 1 to Tuesday is good news for Village imo (as baudib alluded to). I believe he is Village lean. There could be a wagon for me coming up, but I am definitely Villager, so am trying to concéntrate on finding someone who I have at least some read on who is a Wolf. I do not really have a read on that yet.
"definitely a villager"
Next is baud's WIFOM post #134.
#135 Luco is "not getting much of a wolfy vibe from huber".
#166 - 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermexThis is my thinking as well (except the fact that I'm a Villager). However, I'm no longer suspicious of baudib but am more intrigued by the Keith/Ong back-and-forth. I think there's def a solid wolf to sniff (as you say) between those two, and I'm leaning towards Keith at this moment, so I'll go with that read.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
Lynch Keith
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
#172Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermexWholeheartedly agree with this. Although he's also too good to let hanging around if he rolled Wolf, random chances are he's village and is needed itt. I'm getting a Village vibe from him atm.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Keith is a far superior player than I am (you all are, actually), and the fact that I'm a bit suspicious won't--and shouldn't-- hold any weight. I do like Ong's read though and that is what I'm going on for the most part.
Who was the suspicious poster he mentioned in #26?
Perhaps you should try a little bitQuote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
This is day 2. After this, 4 votes for rilla and you DONT POST.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
So its not a "which is it", smartass. Its clearly both. You are clearly watching votes, but were also clearly absent from rilla's lynch. You're false dichotomy to make yourself look good just blew up in your face. You're now officially scrambling to defend yourself.
New theory? Its the same theory, over and over and over. Its hardly ridiculous that a wolf would vote his buddy. Its hardly ridiculous that he would do so when the heat was off. You would have me believe that wolves never vote their partner? That is truly ridiculous.Quote:
You still haven't given a non-ridiculous theory about my vote on rilla. You keep popping up a new theory and saying that it's your same theory, but that's not evident.
You couldnt easily have done so. Nailing the coffin on me = nailing a villager. That would be suspicious. I've said this before, and ill keep saying it as long as you keep bringing it up.Quote:
Furthermore, your argument hinges around me (as a wolf) voting rilla instead putting the nail in your coffin (as a vil) when I could easily have done so. When I posted my comment affirming my vote on rilla, I could easily have jumped on your wagon.
You have not offered any reasonable explanation for this series of actions.
doobs is getting through this faster than me. That in itself is worth a village lean.
p6
#389 mojo votes rilla.
#391 mojo lays out his case on jkds.
#392 jkds doesn't care about votes on him after moaning about me having a fuck it hissy fit.
#393 jkds moves into attack ong mode.
#395 clears most of the village based on keith's theory.
#398 votes for me, and suggests that if I flip villager then lynch daven, who destroyed baudib on d1. This doesn't look good at all.
#399 gabe doesn't like jkds' conclusions. Suggests rilla lynch.
#402 jkds suggests that the keith nom wasn't for levelling because he's the only one banging that drum. This is actually pretty fishy... jkds could've killed keith for levelling reasons and realises that he's the only one on about it and is potentially exposed, and acts before someone else does.
#408 I question where jkds' fistpumping is as he smacks down the ong case.
#410 jkds says if I'm a villager my game sucks. This is despite sniffing out a wolf on d1, and if jkds is a wolf he knows I'm onto rilla too so it makes sense for him to try and discredit my reads. He goes on to brush off accusations of hypocrisy by pointing out his argument is ong specific, like I somehow follow a formula for how I go about being a villager.
#411 points at the keith nom to cast eyes in my direction.
#414 drew pats jkds on the back.
#415 drew prefer ong lynch to rilla.
#416 drew says that if jkds is a wolf then wolves fucked up their voting. Would drew actually say this if they're both wolves?
#418 hoopy turns up out of nowhere and slaps a rilla vote down. Big villager points here.
#420 luco hops on.
#422 drew reluctantly hops on to the rilla wagon.
#426 I turn up and join the rilla wagon.
#427 keyb votes for doober, a pointless vote. Surely if keyb is a wolf then he can see rilla is done and either hops on or stays put. I don't see why a wolf would make such a feeble effort to get another wagon going at that time.
#434 rilla r a dead wan.
#437 jkds banging right at me after rilla's flip. Plays down my role in the rilla wagon.
#445 drew now plays down my role in the rilla wagon. Note drew' role was to reluctantly hop on, while jkds' role was zero.
#449 is horrible and needs quoting...
I responded by asking him to summarise his contribtuion, which ofc he ignored.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Done to p6. It's getting late here so I'm done reading for the day, I'll finish off in like 12 hrs or so, depends when I drag myself out of bed. Time to chill.
#288, his first post in NIGHT 1
What did you come up with dhuber?Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
Does dhhuber directly say this to JKDS in thread if they're both wolves?Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermexI feel the same way... not that I was ever good to begin with. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
What are you saying, dhubs? Oh yeah, that you're a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
rilla's only vote that day was on dhuber.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
dhuber's was on ong.
Uh, Hoops, is that all we get tonight?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
This late in the game and with all that's happening, you proffer a VC and peace-out?
Where's your analysis, your individual thoughts, a clarification question or two, anything human??
Hell, if you're not gonna contribute at least lay down a vote.
Shit or get off the pot, kid...
From a villager dhuber standpoint, I can totally see how he'd think BID was a wolf. He didnt talk about it in his summaries, but the whole "why did baudib only point out dhuber's vanilla comment, and not bid's" would and should be noticeable for dhuber. From dhuber's point of view, the answer is simply that bid is a wolf and baudib was ignoring him.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
I dont think he's right on BID. However, putting BID at the top of his list over myself and MMM is very villagery. I feel a wolf would more likely just fuel the fire for one of us.
Add to that how baudib/rilla vote dhubs, it feels like this is just level 0 wolf play...with them going after dhubs because hes newer and perhaps an easy lynch at the time.
@Ong: I ignored that and several other of your arguments because they didnt apply to me. For instance, if you get caught speeding...pointing out other speeders doesnt get you out of a ticket. I never denied being a minimal contributor to rilla's lynch though.
#458 - 460
I did that too - more than once.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
Nope, on the wrong side of that one, too, dhubs.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
Agrees with JKDS, who has given dhubs villager status for his comment on baud's modkill.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
Then in post #461 BID enters
#462 dhubs repliesQuote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
This looks like a villager post to me. His Luco/keybored/Gabe list has 2 known villagers and keybored, who is 99% village to me... so who's the wolf in his list? No one... villagery.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
And then more unnamed suspicious players. Wrong about Luco (and I think wrong about ong and key). He drops me and JKDS as villagery... so if ... IF ... dhubs is being straight-forward wolf for once, it implies one of us. I would love to jump all over my JKDS/dhubs read for this, but I just can't. It's too weak.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
#568
Man, I hate this post. I think his reads are wrong. I hate that he's never really dropped a solid post to implicate anyone. Everything so wishy washy, and even if he's a villager on defense, he's doing a terrible job of leaving the village any of his reasons for why he thinks what he thinks.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
best post from dhubs: #730
So he's capable of dropping long posts that explain himself, but he just doesn't do it much.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
Wolfy.
Luco's response: #736
Yep.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Here's dhuber's start to day 3: #752
Granted, I did much the same with my bold on JKDS, but I put out an argument over the night, and was waiting for day to drop my bold.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
#787
Now that sounds quite villagery.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
post #824 (recent, long, worth reading, but I'm not gong to quote the whole thing)
Finally doing the work of a villager. Why is it all coming so far into mid-game.
Where has this dhubermex been?
#827
OK, so I agree with 2 out of 3 of his reads. So maybe dhubs is looking better.
#830
MOre of the same.
Why did dhuber just show up the moment I went back through the thread to dig him up?
Coincidence?
I like his reads on JKDS and BID, but I haven't done a further dig on BID yet. BID is next on my list.
I've been at this game for 6+ hours now, though... and I'm taking a break.
I agree with you about that.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
key - jkds
jkds - mmm
mmm - jkds
nobody - dhubs, ong, bid, hoops
jkds - 2
mmm - 1
Day 4 ends at 3PM PST, so exactly 22 hours from this post
A) I made my argument; I cast my vote. There was no thread shattering post that made me change my read.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
B) How are either of those things clear? You have only a suspicion of either of those things. I was indeed watching the votes with butterflies in my stomach because I was not certain that rilla was a wolf. If he truly was playing to some meta-game, then it would have been a bad vote.
You can't know either way whether or not I was watching the thread and mashing F5, so the fact that you assert that opinion with such a forceful clarity is suspect.
I asked you how you can on the one hand affirm that I'm closely watching the votes, and on the other hand that I was NOT watching the day 2 vote. Asking you to clarify what you're saying is not expressing any statement of my own.
If I presented a false dichotomy, it was only to clarify what what you were saying. You have to admit that it's LDO to say "watches like a hawk" and "wasn't paying attention" is, on the face of it, contradictory.
I'm not "having you believe" anything. I'm trying to get you to plainly state your case against me. As I would ask any villager to state their case against anyone.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
To reiterate, this is the case:
JKDS is saying that I am a wolf and that he's a villager.
He's saying that I put my vote on rilla and left my vote on rilla for 20 hours,
during which time I pressed my point and did not rescind my vote,
during which time JKDS wagon was 1 away from lynch w/o me on it.
JKDS is saying that I not only re-started a broken wagon on my wolf buddy, whom I did not intend to kill,
He's also saying that I did all of that, then didn't lynch JKDS (villager) instead of my wolf buddy.
BUT
That it was not my plan to kill my wolf buddy,
and that I was not FPS'ing.
because it is clear I was not watching the thread during the voting on day 2,
but even if I was watching (like I usually do), it would have been suspicious of me to vote for JKDS on day 2.
So what was stopping me (and others) from suspiciously voting gabe on day 3?
Why on earth do I have to lead you into your argument against me, JKDS? You should be 2 steps ahead of me with your points, but you're not.
MY point is exactly that. You, JKDS, are a brutally efficient machine when you spot a wolf, and your argument against ong was weak sauce, and your argument against me is weak sauce.
Nothing to say at this moment, I'll have a last read of the thread tomorrow but unless something really stands out I think JKDS and dhuber are the wolves.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
lynch dhuber
I don't have another full-read w/ copy/pasta in me tonight.
Dhuber is putting in effort now, but his early game was so erratic. If he keeps up the input, then I can lean more V on him.
His posts today are villagery, and he seems to agree with me about JKDS and ong (even though he doesn't like me).Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
If we lynch dhuber and he flips V, what does that mean?
If we lynch dhuber and he flips W, what does that mean?
MMM...we been at this for nearly 2 wks and Dhuber has JUST NOW showed up to play. Unsat! He's on the mat with an 8-count and he's trying to get his legs underneath himself. Why play the if/then game on just one person? Those questions you hafta ask yourself when you suspect someone. Then, when you think you have a legit concern/case, you can ask us to roll in. Otherwise, you're being lazy by asking us to do your bidding. Make your own case internally first then, if it sits right with you, invite others to opine. But don't ask us to make your case for you.
My thoughts exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
lynch dhubermex
I agree his posts today seem village but it took over 800 posts for me to see signs of village. That's just not good enough. I have made my case vs huber a couple of times and if you want to know why I'm leaning huber, go and take a look for yourself.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
If we lynch dhuber and he flips V, Hoopy and I look bad. MMM looks good, along with others who have stated he is a villager.
If we lynch dhuber and he flips W, same logic as if he flips V, but with opposite results.
Even though Huber and JKDS are at the top of my list, I think huber is a wolf some % more often.
FWIW, keybored is slowly changing my mind on him from W to V.
I'm playing the if/then game on all lynches. You should be, too. Try to be a step ahead of the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keybored
I spent a long time looking up dhubs today, and while I was doing it, he was posting in the thread. I agree that it could well be too little, too late, but at least he's putting ideas into the game.
At the same time, there is villagery stuff in his posts, as I pointed out. His involvement with both known wolves is weird.
Plus, I am on the fence about JKDS/hoopy and I want to hear his reasons for why he's doing what he's doing. I've expressed my unease with hoopy, as did Luco before he died... as have you, key... that's 3 strikes from 3 vils the way I see it. Yet, hoopy has not responded to this attention, which is evasive, and wolfy in itself. So getting Hoopy to say why he thinks Dhubs is a better vote than JKDS is obviously on my mind.
Pretty sure this game was solved last night. Looking back at posts #676 - 750 (end of last night)
I expressed concern over hoopy, and pointed out that he's cleared based on the assumption that JKDS is V.
Luco agrees, and puts JKDS/hoopy as his first pick.
Then Hoopy shows up and mostly defends dhubs and keybored as villagery.
Keybored puts his massive This-is-your-life-hoopy post.
Hoopy posts some more saying keybored is V
Then Hoopy takes the rilla defense with this:
#722
Hoopy never addressed the fact that I had put him as final wolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
He never addresses that luco's top pick was JKDS/hoopy
When keybored actually calls him out on low content, he says his exaggerated quiter play is for "various reasons".
What reasons in a game with no specials? Wolf reasons.
JKDS and Hoopy were the 2 that acted like they didn't understand that the ghost angel saves / revive mechanic had basically changed to it's opposite. Hoopy goes on to talk about the wolf-controlled dead thread assuming the mechanic was the same all game through.
JKDS/Hoopy is my top choice.
I stated earlier in the thread that my lack of activity was work-related. Also see Post #787 for why I'm becoming more active now.
Basically I was hoping there would be a couple of Villagers around whose reads I have at least some background on this close to endgame. That was poor thinking on my part, and a critical lesson for future Werewolf matches (this is my third) that playing it by ear early-game has its consequences late game when it comes to making reads.
I would prefer a BID lynch but since there is no wagon at the moment on him, I will go with JKDS lynch. This is because I don't want to be the first to three votes in this scenario. Will anyone come onto a BID wagon with me? If so, I'll join.
Lynch JKDS
Right now it's
JKDS - 3 (MMM, Keybored, dhubermex)
dhubermex - 2 (Hoopy, BankItDrew)
MMM - 1 (JKDS)
Ong has yet to vote and says he won't be back for ~6 hours. If JKDS is indeed a Wolf, he's highly skilled as Luco suggested earlier in the thread. Hoopy, will you come off of me to start a BID wagon? Will Keybored or MMM? I'm also interested in if anyone is going to put a nail in JKDS' coffin at this point. I'd suggest we don't yet, but let's just keep in mind who does in case JKDS flips Villager (I think it's about 50/50). My only reason for getting the JKDS nomination out there right now is because that puts him in the lead over me at 3.
MoMo...I don't want to wage war here. I just want to address your comment directed at me. FWIW, I appreciate your mega effort today. You've been all over everyone and doing some serious investigative work. And at the same time you've been battling JK (which obv ain't easy). I was probably overly harsh on your epic chart but a lot of what I said was directed at everyone, not you specifically.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Now, about being a step ahead (or, behind, as you infer). I believe fatigue may be causing you to shorten your words, thus sharpening your tongue. And I get that; believe me. But when you toss something out for all to see, it has to be answered cuz lack thereof invites skepticism.
So, if you please, here are two counterpoints:
1) I've quite solidly parked on either Dhuber or JKDS today (early today). And so that has freed me up like no other day. Everyone else that's performed analysis today has almost unanimously agreed with me. So, I am ahead and as a result I'm free to speculate in other areas.
2) My vote pattern will clearly show multiple JKDS/Dhuber lynch noms and reads since day 1 (that is, after I was first to park on Baud). I've poked a couple other players for short periods but I've been warning about these two all along.
I'm not soul-read parked on any 1 person, like Dhuber has been on Ong. But I've made solid cases and put my votes in where/when I thought it would generate momentum. And when my attempt to lead a wagon failed, I've pulled back and reevaluated. I've had/proposed my opinions about wolves but I haven't allowed them to blind or bind me either. Thus, I've also followed the village when it seemed right.
If Dhuber is a V, he's been a terrible V and I don't feel bad about a wrong read.
If Dhuber is a W, fist-pump, cuz I'm parked on him.
If JKDS is a V, he's also been a terrible V and I feel only slightly badder about a wrong read.
If JKDS is a W, a lot of us will be fist-pumping (yikes, that didn't come out right, but u get it).
There are so, so, so many wrong things in here that I'm not even going to bother; like, honestly.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
Dhoobs, come on man...
Did you really spend all day "catching up" and admit to nom someone just to save your own neck?
Are you basically begging ppl to join you on a wagon against the most V guy alive?
Are you literally self-lynching right now?
I disagree Keybored. JKDS is my second choice as Wolf and I know how detrimental it would be to lynch a sure-fire Villager at this point, which the only player I'm 100% sure of is me.
I am indeed pleading with remaining players to join me on a BID wagon, I don't see how hey could be the most V guy alive as you say. Definitely not self-lynching, as that would reduce Village's numbers. FWIW I don't think I'm getting lynched today (if I turn out to be wrong, then so be it). I don't want to speak for Ong plus he's not around, but I'm hopeful he'll look at my reasoning for BID and chime in. If he adds-on a nom for JKDS (before someone rescinds, then that's a 50/50 shot imo of catching a wolf). The only remaining player who has a higher than 50% chance of being Wolf from what I've read is BID.
I also don't like the rationale of throwing around the lousy Villager card on players who might flip Villager. I suppose I can see it in my case since I was only following along with the thread for the first 10 pages, but even then it gives too much of an out even late-game in my opinion.
On top of that, after 7 pages I'm a bit at my wit's end when it comes to analyzing. I don't think there's any additional benefit I can add to the Village at this point, and will need to get some sleep before going over Pages 8+. That's the best I have for you.
Do not lynch dhuber over me. If he flips villager, I'm the top pick still for day 5 and i'm a villager. Thats bad.
If im so suspicious, you should lynch me first. Then evaluate people's opinions/attacks on me and see which ones make real sense, and which ones are just wolves blending in.
This reads to me like JKDS is very confident that dhuber is a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
I think dhub is on my case because he is either a vengeful n00b villager or is a bad strat wolf.
He states that he made a case for why I'm a wolf. I know he said I was but the reasons given were not memorable.
Dhub, will you entertain me and make a case against me? Just curious.
Not a bad description thereQuote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Because no wagon was ever started on me. I'm not worried about a few accusations.Quote:
Hoopy posts some more saying keybored is V
Then Hoopy takes the rilla defense with this:
#722
Hoopy never addressed the fact that I had put him as final wolf.
Life reasons actually.Quote:
He never addresses that luco's top pick was JKDS/hoopy
When keybored actually calls him out on low content, he says his exaggerated quiter play is for "various reasons".
What reasons in a game with no specials? Wolf reasons.
I didn't understand it. As a wolf I would have had a far better idea of the mechanic.Quote:
JKDS and Hoopy were the 2 that acted like they didn't understand that the ghost angel saves / revive mechanic had basically changed to it's opposite. Hoopy goes on to talk about the wolf-controlled dead thread assuming the mechanic was the same all game through.
We agree on JKDS at least.Quote:
JKDS/Hoopy is my top choice.
Dhuber is not better than JKDS imo, I just voted because keybored was prodding me to vote and JKDS was already on 2. Didn't want him to get to 3 and have ong end the day early by accident.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
JKDS is better because even if he flips villager that will clear me and BID. OTOH if he flips wolf that makes me/BID look a bit worse but clears Ong.
I don't think dhuber flipping wolf clears anyone, everybody wants him dead.
Morning. So it's between JKDS and doobs? If deadline was an hour I'd pick JKDS, but deadline is like 10 hrs so plenty of time to read through.
JKDS asking to be lynch over doobs is interesting, not really sure what that means. I'll read stuff shortly.
JKDS asks to be lynched over doobs when he's at L-1 with only me yet to vote. He knows I'm probably more likely to vote him than doobs. This could be a last ditch attempt to look like a villager. idk why a villager would want to die today. You'd have to be pretty sure doobs is a villager to take that position.
This is not USA/Canada time so no way am I voting while everyone sleeps. But I don't think I like JKDS asking to be lynched. His lynch is pretty much inevitable so it seems to lack sincerity.
ok so onwards and upwards...
p7
#455 mojo jumps on me, ongwolf votes like ongwolf... this after I lynched two wolves remember.
#458 doobs votes for me, sees no reason to reassess his d2 read... which means the rilla flip means nothing to him.
#459 doobs suggests my buddy is luco.
#461 drew mentions his solid read on me.
#463 drew says my comment suggesting the wolves' plan was to have 2 dead is false... obviously failing to grasp the sarcasm my post was dripping in.
#470 jkds leaves for disneyland asking for me and keyb to be lynched, waves his finger at luco.
#475 is where I first pick up on baudib playing a different game with doob and drew over vanilla claims.
#481 mojo is still banging the idea that me and baudib are same team.
#502 luco read through post. Clears mmm based on baudib saying "certainly villager", clears doobs due to baudib's push at him, doesn't like JKDS.
#520 mojo backs off me and turns on doober.
#521 drew immediately follows suit, calling mojo a genius.
Slowly getting there.
p8
#546 I point out that drew flipping between me and doober makes no sense, since we're at each other at this stage.
#553 this post of mojo's is more aggressive than I expect from him...
#558 jkds gets back and immediately comes charging at me for wolf hunting and not villager hunting since rilla's death. Massive post to make this one point.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
#560 jkds' defence of doober here is actually quite compelling. He provides a good reason why doobs is a villager.
#568 then doobs goes and undoes that village lean by posting. Here he tells us we had a close victory then let it slip. He's still fixated on me/keyb/luco.
#571 hoopy turns the screw on gabe.
#590 oh yeah JKDS said keith was 2/3 when he was 1/3.
#594 jkds claims he thought keith was pointing at rilla too.
p9
#647 mojo jumps on gabe
Ok this is interesting. Remember how mojo is convinced that me and baudib are same team? Well why the hell is he lynching gabe rather than me? Not long before this vote, gabe voted for me as he defended himself against the heat he was getting. Mojo even admits in his post #647 that me and gabe are never wolves together. So why is he going for gabe? This is really bad and I think it's a smoking gun for mojo. He explains his vote as occam's razor, that simplest solution is gabe = wolf. Make no mistake about it, the wolves were deligthed to get gabe lynched leaving me around as mislynch bait once more.
Ok I'm gonna post this and resume later from the quote link.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
Quote:
Right now it's
JKDS - 3 (MMM, Keybored, dhubermex)
dhubermex - 2 (Hoopy, BankItDrew)
MMM - 1 (JKDS)
I'm also interested in if anyone is going to put a nail in JKDS' coffin at this point.
My only reason for getting the JKDS nomination out there right now is because that puts him in the lead over me at 3.
After all his research, Dhuber likes a BID lynch (but won't vote him).Quote:
JKDS is my second choice as Wolf...
FWIW I don't think I'm getting lynched today (if I turn out to be wrong, then so be it).
I don't think there's any additional benefit I can add to the Village at this point...
That's the best I have for you.
Pleads to the village to hop on a BID wagon (but won't start one).
Sez he doesn't want to be first to 3 votes (but won't vote BID).
Sez he's voting JKDS to put him on 3 votes, above himself.
Then casually wonders who's gonna nail JKDS' coffin.
Uh, Dhuber...you nailed his coffin shut by putting him first to 3 votes. And you give Ong a free ride by voting anyone but JK.
Continuing from mojo's gabe vote...
#651 gabe thinks jkds and drew are both villagers.
#652 keyb jumps on the gabe wagon.
#656 drew tells the village that if gabe isn't a wolf I must be one.
#657 two minutes later retracts that comment, possibly realising it's wolfy.
#660 drew "swallows his pride" and jumps off me and hangs gabe.
gabe is lynched with a majority.
While drew's hammer on the surface looks really bad, my point that it would be a ballsy move for a wolf to hang villager gabe when the wolves would surely anticipate me turning up any minute to do just that, it has merit, it seems more likely that drew is legit here. If drew is a wolf he did that purely in the hope that it would look villagery simply because it's unneccesary. gabe was done and wolves knew it, it was simply a case of them waiting for me. It's possible that drew wolf wanted gabe dead and simply didn't think about me at all, but I don't think so.
#665 says sorry to gabe while saying he hopes he's right about me, which pretty much confirms that mojo is swinging for me next day regardless, and already has gabe as his reason.
#669 drew immediately reacts by saying I'm a wolf.
#675 luco thinks it's jkds and hoopy on the night he gets killed.
That's p9 done.
Under 6 hours to go guys.
I will probably vote JKDS at the end of the day.
p10
#689 mojo saying he doesn't see how there's not a wolf between me and jkds. If mojo is a wolf and jkds town, this would be a solid line for mojo to take to get the last two closer to endgame. If the ong vs jkds shitfest is all vill-vill nonsense, the wolves will be loving it, especially if they can get us both lynched one after another. This is the same mojo who was insisting ong-baud is same team and used that read to keep the pressure on me when I was in trouble.
#699 huge drew reads post, points at jkds, doober and keyb, as as such backs off me. It seems premature for the wolves to back off me... if they do it during the night, then maybe they were planning to kill me. But they didn't. So they planned to run at me again the next day. Doobs starts with an ong lynch but that's the only ong action today that I can recall.
#705 hoopy looks to me like he's trying to figure stuff out, as opposed pretending to.
#711 massive post from keyb pointing the finger at hoopy for being super consistent. Town as fuck.
#712 jkds doesn't understand the ghost angel stuff.
#730 huge doobs post saying very little other than ong/keyb/luco.
#737 drew has doober and keyb as the last two.
#744 mojo turns on jkds while backing off me.
and that's p10, which brings us to the beginning of today (ww day). Fuck it I'm done with the read through for now.
Let's summarise...
MMM - wolf - his numbers spazz, his insistence that I'm same team as baud and sticking with that, his gabe vote when he thinks I'm a wolf, his turn on jkds while insisting there's a wolf between me and jkds, his expectation of being conf v if jkds flips v... mojo is my top pick for wolf, which makes jkds unlikely to be one.
JKDS - villager - this is entirely based on mojo flipping wolf. If mojo flips villager, well jkds looks terrible again. His focus on me only is unlike jkds villager, especially when he was misreading me this badly last game. There's lots about jkds that I don't like this game but I don't think he looks as bad as mojo. I realise I misread him badly last game and we might simply both be doing so again.
Dhuber - wolfy - my problem with doobs is his sheer stubborness. When he rescinded his vote for an inactive keybored, he cited me, not jkds. That indicates to me that doobs at that time was simply scanning the thread for his name, because I addressed doobs directly while jkds did not. He claiming gut reads on me and keyb which avoids having to move his vote around. He does have points in his favour though, such as rilla and baudib ganging up on him, and the effort he's put in recently. He's also often misread as wolfy when he is not. JKDS also made a good case for why doobs is a villager. So I'm not as confident as I am that mojo is wolf, but a good bet nonetheless.
BID - drew has a lot of big marks against him. But that gabe hammer... I just don't understand why a wolf would do that when it's not necessary. That's pretty compelling to me and as such drew leans havily villager.
Hoops - again heavy villager lean. He didn't lynch me d1, he did lynch rilla d2, and he seems like he's trying to figure stuff out. hoopy looks good to me.
Keybored - heavy villager lean. He's putting in a lot of work, I would be very surprised if he's a wolf. That post attacking hoopy shows the level of hunting he's capable of. If that's fake it's outstanding.
I'm thinking mojo and doobs.
lynch mojo
I got class all day today. These are my final reads
MMM: Obvious wolf.
Ong: I dont see him working so hard, not after I backed off. I dotn think he really has reason to read through like this as a wolf. I'm probably just a foolish idiot for my previous read.
BID: Still villager, not close.
Hoopy: Still villager. He was an early switch to rilla. Not close.
Dhuber: Probably villager, just b/c everyone's been after him (rilla, baudib, mmm)
Keyboard: This is who i think the last wolf is. I dont think ppl are giving him enough credit as a potential wolf. The things ppl say make him a villager are things an even somewhat decent wolf could do. I have lots more in previous posts, but in addition to that, he made a comment that if i flip villager or if dhub flips villager then we're just bad players. Regardless of whether thats true, keybored seems like a new player (ive been gone awhile). If he doesnt have experience to be able to say when someone is bad, then the only reference is whether the player has been right. Only a wolf knows that.
The best move is still probably to lynch me. Then you get sure info on hoopy/bid, can better evaluate the read on mmm, and the wolves have to gamble on who to kill.
wtf, ong? Is it you and JKDS after all?
Now you think that I, as a vil... voted rilla like I did, when JKDS was vil? That's what you're telling me?
You're telling me that my inconsistencies lead you away from confused villager, and toward bad wolf?
You're telling me that you think a wolf would lead the villagers to say more and do more and dig deeper like I have this game?
Why did you vote gabe when you felt I was wolfy? Why would you go for someone who is voting for me instead of joining my wagon? That doesn't make sense to me mojo and basically that's the main reason I've gone for you.
If I'm right about JKDS, then why is ong alive?
Why didn't ong get nommed for his 3/3 in 3 days? Surely the wolves would be terrified of ong if that's true.
Maybe ong's alive because of my waffling on him... maybe ong's alive because the village wasn't consistently believing him.
Or maybe ong's a wolf... but I doubt it.
Either way, if I go today, then ong needs to be seriously re-looked up by the rest of the village.
***
I can understand anyone else calling me out for the numbers, but ong... who made a numbers mistake himself on day 1? come on.
***
If JKDS is really a villager, then he's giving the village very little to go on when he dies.
***
Lynching a villager is not do-or-die, but it is a big deal today.
If the village mislynches today, we can lose on any coming day, depending on lynches and GA saves.
If the village bags a wolf today, then the village can not lose before day 7, and there are a lot of paths to win.
If the GA save does not happen both tonight and tomorrow night, then there will be no revive.
My numbers spazz didn't betray a wolf pov. Yours did. Baudib's did. The fact I was right about baudib should explain very easily why I confident that your slip is a wolf slip too. Wolves make these fuckups.Quote:
I can understand anyone else calling me out for the numbers, but ong... who made a numbers mistake himself on day 1? come on.
I was starting to think maybe you weren't wolfy. JKDS doesn't make any decent argument against you, and JKDS was not looking great. I wanted more time to make up my mind on you 2, so I was looking for another candidate.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Gabe was not making sense to me anymore and I'm a bit terrified of gabe-wolf. Gabe doesn't post much and his low content was scaring me. Luco was suspicious of gabe, which had me re-thinking my stance.
I thought a gabe vote was going to reveal a lot of information, as my posts show. I was trying to find a lynch that would provide a lot of information, and I thought the gabe lynch was good for that, too.
So I thought gabe was not acting too villagery and his death would elucidate the other roles in the thread.
It was a mistake. I've made a few in this game, and I've come right up and owned them.
You didn't nom me because you could attack me while claiming jkds is a wolf after I flipped villager. That's my best guess.Quote:
Why didn't ong get nommed for his 3/3 in 3 days? Surely the wolves would be terrified of ong if that's true.
and so do villagers who are thinking ahead in the game and trying to put together a nice, pretty chart to help the village see where they are in the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
When I flip villager, then what are you gonna do?Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
No more MVP for ong.
you need to answer this, ong.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Reassess. Same as if you flip wolf. Except the latter comes with a fistpump.Quote:
When I flip villager, then what are you gonna do?
rescindQuote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Goddam you're right. Alright let me mull this over.
JKDS has given an explanation for why you parked on rilla. I kinda brshed it off at the time because I though jkds was the wolf, but maybe he's right, maybe you put an early vote on him because it wasn't dangerous, and got stuck on there and stayed put because you didn't want to look bad.Quote:
Now you think that I, as a vil... voted rilla like I did, when JKDS was vil? That's what you're telling me?
You're right though because I assume that jkds wolf means the votes on rilla are irrelevant. A villager jkds makes rilla votes look good.
But yours is the weakest, along with drew's. It's hoopy and luco who look golden from the rilla lynch.
This kind of overreaction to two votes is extremely telling. MMM is going ballistic here. This isnt careful thinking scientist mmm, this is cornered and fighting tooth and claw to survive mmm.
He's trying to use the chart to say hes a villager, which shows that he made it to show he was a villager.
Hes saying "when i flip v, what will you do". This is a common thing for a wolf to say.
Its killing me how clear this is.
@PPL: Get off dhuber. Get on me or mmm. You need to see one of us die today
Class in 4, dont lynch dhuber. It has to be me or mmm. If its not, we're in a shit place tomorrow.
HAMMERING A VILLAGER LOOKS WOLFY. Voting wolves looks villagery. Its not a difficult concept, and its why you voted rilla instead of me. Wolves regularly try to get involved and show theyre important. Its classic wolf strat. How many times this game has someone put in some effort, only for everyone to go "oh, clearly villager now". Effort and involvement is NOT a villager tell. Too much of it may actually be a wolf tell.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
I just can't buy into the JKDS-wolf theory at the moment. If he's fooling me with his rhetoric, then good for him but I'm much more intrigued my MMM's latest replies. They do seem like a cornered wolf in a way.
Rescind JKDS
Lynch MadMojoMonkey
so we're at:
JKDS - 2 (MMM, Keybored)
dhubermex - 2 (Hoopy, BID)
MMM - 2 (JKDS, dhubermex)
Ong = undecided
rescind dhubermex
This is the case against me:
JKDS and ong are saying that I am a wolf and that he's a villager.
They are saying that I put my vote on rilla and left my vote on rilla for 20 hours,
during which time I pressed my point and did not rescind my vote,
during which time JKDS wagon was 1 away from lynch w/o me on it.
JKDS and ong are saying that I not only re-started a broken wagon on my wolf buddy, whom I did not intend to kill,
they're also saying that I did all of that, then didn't lynch JKDS (villager) instead of my wolf buddy.
BUT
That it was not my plan to kill my wolf buddy,
and that I was not FPS'ing.
because it is clear I was not watching the thread during the voting on day 2,
but even if I was watching (like I usually do), it would have been suspicious of me to vote for JKDS on day 2.
***
I keep bringing this up, because it's a circumstantial argument, which relies on the hypothesis that I was acting out of character on the day 2 vote, while there have only been 3 votes to establish a pattern of "watching like a hawk".
The fact is that I was watching, and nervous. To say that my leaving the vote there and then supporting my read and not rescinding my vote didn't encourage that wagon doesn't sit right with me. To say that I wasn't watching that vote and therefore didn't know that the wagon was growing is unfounded speculation.
hoops what are your thoughts? You don't seem to have much to say.
JKDS...Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Your case for BID-Hoopy-Ong is spot on.
Your case against me is complete speculation.
Your ongoing MMM case has serious teeth and now he's fighting like a cornered canine.
Your Dhuber case is backward and soft, he's a self-proclaimed survivalist and just hopped off your love wagon in favor of the hottest target, MMM. But again, his top two reads are BID/JKDS, so figure that out.
Your willingness/eagerness to take the fall today for the long term benefit of the village could easily be a desperate move to survive the next few hours.
I think it's JKDS and dhuber, everyone has something substantial to clear them. JKDS has nothing to clear him, dhuber only has a few small things.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Basically I think you, BID, keybored and MMM are all villagers. If I'm wrong about any it's probably keybored because I guess it's possible to fake the extreme effort he's put in.
I was hoping that by tying the voting up I could draw out one of the wolves by forcing a vote-switch to lynch me. Although not ideal, I was really anxious to see who would put me in the lead and pretty much seal my fate, as that was probably going to be a wolf.
It looks like instead of that I've drawn out one of the Villagers (Hoopy). His immediate rescind says a lot.
He anticipated there might be an immediate shift to me and wanted to avoid that b/c he believes I am a Villager or believes JKDS' analysis that I am. He's also on the fence himself and doesn't have a solid read on who the wolves are. Perhaps he has a good idea of one, but not the other.
lol ninja'd.
I'm going out to see a man about a dog. Which is basically stoner code for score some weed. I'll be back in an hour or two. I will definitely be here for deadline.
I think you are a wolf dhuber, it's just that JKDS is a more certain wolf than you and will give us info.Quote:
Originally Posted by dhubermex
lynch JKDS
That was a sick 2-2-2 spot with Hoopy snap rescinding. I have hoopy as a villager and his villager reads on others are the same as mine, including the possibility that keybored may actually be a wolf. Basically, I agree with him 100%
I wouldn't snap give hoops village cred for the rescind though. I believe he's good enough to realize that it would give him V cred when he's a wolf.