im trying to think of a smart way to estimate what our chances are. they must be high. but remember if we catch a wolf later we get lots of info from this playing out (whether they are on either half)
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im trying to think of a smart way to estimate what our chances are. they must be high. but remember if we catch a wolf later we get lots of info from this playing out (whether they are on either half)
You do bring up a point, but it would be a risky play for a wolf to save a fellow wolf in this manner.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
I was wondering this as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
Hoopy's yet to have responded to anything or anyone with anything other than a wordy null post.
I think it's also interesting that some of the other more suspicious characters have soft-defended him (Luco) or not mentioned him at all (Ong, Wuf)
Im not so sure. Post count isnt role indicative for a lot of players here (baud, ong, and wuf to name a few), and it is almost always the case that there is one wolf in the top posters. If that happens, no wolf gets lynched today.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Its also just day1, reads clearing these players arent as strong as they could be. Would you be surprised if, say, ong flipped wolf? I'm not asking you whether you think hes a wolf, just if you'd be surprised if he was. At this point, I wouldnt be. I wouldnt be surprised if any of them did. Thats reason enough not to just hand them the lynch.
True enough, but usually that backfires on them on later days. They also only need one 'top' poster to succeed with this plan. Or, they could all be in the middle. Or they could be psuedo cleared.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Point is, I think this is dumb; and its not just because im in the bottom five.
I don't think Luco's been extremely wolfy, but the absence of active, villagery Luco is notable in an FTR game.
I also think that he and Wuf have taken similar lines against me, and I'd rather not elaborate on that until I observe more.
Would it? Im not so sure. Suppose Player A is a wolf, and Player B is a wolf. A vetos B.Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
If the seer reveals A as a wolf...how does that indicate B's role? Couldnt A have cleared a villager instead? What if the only wolf in the bottom 5 was already mistakenly cleared by a villager?
Now what if the seer reveals B as a wolf. Does that say anything about A? Couldnt A be a mistaken villager?
I dont see the info being all that useful.
basically the doom scenario (besides multiple wolves, which i feel is very minimal) is that one villager accidentally vetos a wolf, then the single wolf in the top 5 can spare the other wolf, and no wolf dies
counter:
1) its <50% a wolf is in top 5 is my gut feeling
2) the vetos are all educated posters making them. they should be strong decisions on who looks villagery
well at least it got you posting!Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
leaving game until late night
No, I don't think it's a slam dunk. Plus, we're not getting consensus on the vote, but eliminating someone from contention by someone else's read on a low poster.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
I'd prefer that we pick 2 consensus wagons and go with that to eliminate any wolf CFD shenanigans.
There are approximately 35 hours remaining in Day 1.
Vote Count (as of Post #295)
OngBonga - 2
BankItDrew - 1
Hoopy - 1
wufwugy - 1
7 Votes required for majority lynch. If no majority can be reached by 9am ET Thursday, then the player who received the most votes will be lynched. Ties are broken by who reached the tying number first among the lynch candidates.
Yeah, it pretty much becomes WIFOM.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
I like this idea better, and wouldnt mind the top 5-ers picking the wagons.Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
To your point 1. I'd guess there is most likely at least 1 wolf in the top 5 just based on percentages.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
To your point 2. Even though we are educated posters, we're all making the decisions on limited information since we're picking from low posters.
The more I think about this idea, the less I like it. I think it actually lessens our chance of getting a wolf than just doing a rand.org vote. If 1 wolf is in the top 5 and saves another, then there is only 1 wolf remaining from the other 10 players.
I'm not against it.
1 wolf in a group of 5 is unlikely to sway the vote that much.
I'm sure the villagers in the slankers will be voting to self-pres, too.
I mean you always have that problem of wolves having great influence on D1 because they are at full strength and have perfect info.
A culling of the slankers is pretty much par for the course anyway.
If Gabe is orchestrating all this as a wolf, then just wow.
In a way I'm fine with Gabe's plan because it has some hypothetical benefit, but the problem is that when a plan like this is followed through, it means that it happened because the wolves see it resulting in a village lynch.
A better way to policy lynch based on post count is to decide to just do it then pick the best lynch. Gabe's idea is a complex mix of a post count policy lynch, trusting a subset of players, and not accounting any rationale for specific lynches.
The con to a BID lynch is that there seems to be a decent amount of information that can be gained by lynching players that have been active, as there always is, but I also feel like most of what has happened has been fluff. I'm much more of a rereader these days (focusing on that is how I caught MMM d2 last game, but sadly I abandoned my strategy after his lynch didn't happen for a losing strategy). The pro to a BID lynch is avoidance of one of those game-breakingly bad situations where a player is absent in the endgame.
BID isn't Big Red. It's not like he just goes AWOL for a week at a time.
Also BID is usually pretty easy to read and not a great wolf. and a better villager than he gets credit for.
We are a very slow-paced pool of players. I have gone till midgame several times not saying anything about half the players. I tend to sit on reads to see if they compound and thus signify that they are legitimate. Most FTR players don't pump out reads like the kind of games you're probably used to, and definitely unlike the style you employ. I remember a recent game that you didn't play with us, Ronk had gone like two weeks without mentioning Hoopy once, and I was adamant that this couldn't happen if he was a villager. So we gat him and lo n behold he was a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
I disagree with both. BID has gone AWOL for long periods more than once.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
He has become a bit better wolf since his early awful days. Keep in mind that he's going to be gone on the 6th. That means during d4, he stops playing, and we either leave him be and lose if he's a wolf or probably still lose if he's a villager since I can't think of one single time a village has ever won an endgame when a villager is AFK.
This is basic policy lynch. Maybe they don't do policy lynch like this where you play, but this is the kinda stuff we used to care a lot about. Well, at least I did. These days I'm not obsessive about them, but they're definitely worth consideration. There are several other benefits to policy lynching somebody in BID's position that I don't want to go into.
If there's a better lynch, then that's always better than policy lynch, but that means the better lynch has to be determined to be better.
ITG Wuf wants to avoid talking about or lynching any of the wolfy players, because that kind of stuff can lead to mislynches sometimes.
The only reason I haven't blasted you is that I've come to learn you say all sorts of wrong things as a villager. Like the fact that you say I don't want to lynch any wolfy players. If you paid any attention to what I actually said, you wouldn't say that. I explicitly said I don't think anybody is particularly wolfy. You tend to think that the first ten hours of play is all that is needed to figure everything out. I tend to think that it takes several gamedays of accumulated information.
Anyways, see ya tomorrow. Hopefully I'll get some time.
It's ~40 hours, it's over 300 posts. There has been plenty of wolfy posts by a lot of people. We lynch wolves on D1 around here these days.
here's a quote from Ong as he was plotting out his vig on Keith from Vikings gameQuote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
"I'll do something blatantly anti-village and I don't care and hey, I've been drinking."
I'll be gone after D4 but I can still vote during that time. I just won't be able to follow along and make quality decisions (not that I've ever made a correct bold before, because I don't think I have).
But still, lynching a non playing villager is worse than lynching a villager/wolf with content every single day of the week.
I apologize in advance for my effort this game. I'd be willing to sub out if the mod can find someone better.
Fwiw I think gabe is a villager and likrascal is a wolf.
lynch wufQuote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
cause f u that's y
This.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
Drew, thanks for checking in. You've been historically good at reading Ong -- lmk what you think.
Ok that's been done to death so I shan't chime in.
Rong already has more posts this game than the entire Hotshots game where he lived to the end as a wolf.
I have Gabe-Rascal-Rong-Boog as all villagers. I'm probably not right on all of them.
Whilst I appreciate bring considered a villager this game, my post count is entirely down to my level of free time and being online at the same time as others. I'd be active as a wolf if I have free time too.
If anything you're more active as a wolf than a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by rong
Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
not burning out 0.5 days into the game would be a startQuote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
wuf vs hoopy is on!!
wuf has more evidence against but he has tried to address it. hoopy is laying in the cut as always, which regardless of role i bet he thinks he can stay alive for a while
for the active posters, ong is clearly garnering the most suspicion. i think he is the most likely wolf out of the top 6
I thought you were picking a trivial point here, but if you're not used to gabe doing this I can see why it stands outQuote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
He has asked for angel protection before, more than once.
I'm happy with your plan as long as it ends on wuf / hoopy. Mostly wuf, the bid policy lynch doesn't seem like something villa wuf would doQuote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Ong should never see endgame after this much heat.
Wuf seems vilager to me.
Ong is being useless. I think he is a better choice. That said, I am always a fan of removing low content players as they are a problem later on and unlikely to reveal much anyway.
I had to look up what this actually means, such a non gansta.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
BID has posted twice and has said he will be barely participating later on in the game. How are we ever to figure out his role. If he can't be replaced (LOOKING AT YOU HERE MOD!) then he needs to go now rather than later.
Sounds sexy. The nasty kind of sexy though, the one that makes it difficult to look each other in the eye the mornin afterQuote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
I don't get the wuf angel claim ong. Not the timing, the rationale, or the motivation. Even after you explained it I don't know how you got from Hey it's a game to Hi I'm angel.
I really want to go back and check the results of past games, this should be something that can be quantified.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Regardless, people seem to be following you right now.
Second part is irrelevant if we form the wagons early enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
I agree with this, when I modded subbing out worked way better than modkilling.Quote:
Originally Posted by rong
I think bid discussion is premature.
his defense is "i was fucked up so i did something fucked up"Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
in general the village killing someone like this is +ev but part of me wants to believe him and focus on the wuf/hoopy duel
i dont know the data on it, but i know i do it and ive seen plenty of other people do it. it=wolfs avoiding making postsQuote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
i agree. it sucks but its hard for him to exploit us giving him an extra day to be a playaQuote:
Originally Posted by Luco
wolfy points for hoopy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
1) i disagree bid needs to go sooner than someone else who the village think leans wolf (ie >27%). if bid purely forgot to show then we have to give him a random wolf %. we can do better than that as a village when we are trying to catch a wolf
2) your post doesnt seem necessary enough for hoopy to make it. you are really trying to force some posts now arent you?
What hoopy/wuf dual? You just invented it. Its not a thing in its own right you can refer to. You're trying to make it a thing and acting like it already is a thing to ensure it happens. That's sneaky and manipulative.
^^^ at gabe obv.
And we're far better lynching an inactive than a player we're suspicious of because our suspicions today are bases off of day 1 nonsense and then on day 2 or 3 we have to waste a kill on the inactive. So either way in 3 days it's 2 lynches for wolfiness and one for inactivity except in one option your wolfiness is based on 2 and 3 days of suspicion and evidence and in the other one of the wolfiness lynches are based off day one nonsense.
1) I don't think BID should be lynched, by his own admission he'll absent most of the game so replacing him will make for a better game overall no?Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
2) It's important to talk about it.
Anyone else think Luco is following gabe's line too readily?
To properly determine whether gabe is correct that post count does still correlate with wolfiness we'd need to look at individual day post counts for each game rather than totals. Because total post count is skewed by extra posts at the end and people who get killed early obviously having lower overall counts. Might have to control for other factors as well.
Lots of work to do manually, could be done quicker with decent programming ability. Time is the limiting factor right now.
Interesting problem though.
Another long day 1. I had to quickly skim and will probably go through the thread a lot more at work. That said, Gabe accepting another weak Ong excuse (after Ong explicitly posted that he'd change that) is suspect. What'll it take for Ong to end up on the radar?
Yes, I'm on the bottom half of posters but that has been consistent through most of my games, especially on day 1.
I'm not voting for Wuf here. I'm always suspect of an "easy lynch" and Wuf is amongst the easiest. That and I feel there'll never be a lack of Wuf posts, regardless of his slow start. The post count argument shouldn't apply to him and I'm surprised it's been raised.
I'm sticking with him. Worst case scenario, he's an irresponsible villager that dies.
Him is Ong
lynch hoopy
boog feels more sincere than last game when I hard defended him and then he turned on me. I think he actually believes I'm a wolf. Same with rascal.
I might not be doing very well wolf hunting, but I'm doing an excellent job of town hunting. I have gabe, rilla, baudib, boog and rascal as town, so bollocks to the lot of you.
a500lbgorilla - v
BankItDrew - ?
baudib - v
BooG690 - v
gabe - v
Hoopy - ?
JKDS - ?
lilrascal - v
Luco - ?
OngBonga - v
rong - ?
wufwugy - ?
wuf rong luco jkds hoopy drew
I'e already got it narrowed down to 6, which is under half the village.
And I'm not even trying.
This is easy.
So before I taint myself (heh) by reading the thread in detail, I want to point out that, while post counts may be indicative of something, total post counts may be the wrong metric. I think it's more important to find inconsistencies in post counts with regard to past games.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
FWIW, rong is probably the most glaring inconsistency off the top of my head with JKDS at a close second.
Wait, if you think wuf has claimed angel why isn't he in your town list?Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
It's probably not a crumb, idk I guess I was being stupid. Even if it is a crumb, that doesn't mean he's angel, it means he's angel or wolf, and there's 3x more wolves than angels.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
I noticed a lot of inexplicably weird things people have said this morning. I'll point out a few of them
I have a couple thoughts on this. First, in Wuf's defense, he's always been about clearing out inactives, not really doing much on D1 and in general, he likes lynching BID. Also, whenever he takes heat he loves to talk about "you guys say this is suspicious of me, yet I do the same thing game after game." Whether or not this is always true is up for debate, it's basically his standard deflection tactic regardless of role. But in this case it's somewhat legit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
That said, Wuf feels unusually detached from the thread. There are plenty of interesting topics to discuss that he has steered clear from. Also, I don't think Wuf appreciates the urgency in this game, which is higher than usual. We have a small game (only 9 villagers) and a daily vig, so theoretically we could lose with a mislynch on D3.
There are other ways to deal with inactives. I mean in general we're all kinda agreeing here, except for those who REALLY want to lynch Ong. Which I think, is no one, except maybe Rilla. The difference as I see it is Gabe wants us to select from the bottom half of posters while Wuf just wants to policy lynch BID.Quote:
Originally Posted by rong
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
Boog, Wuf has been notoriously difficult to lynch. Also, Wuf has rarely ever been a bottom poster at any point in any game. In general I like your tone this game but these posts are unsettling. Not sure what to make of these, could be nothing.Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I think this is the first time Ong has mentioned Hoopy all game.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Why does it make him a wolf or an angel?Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Well I suppose he could be vanilla hoping the wolves see the crumb.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
And yes that might well be the first time I mention hoopy. Had I voted luco, you'd be saying the same. Or drew. And that's where my vote is going to be. One of those three. wuf rong and jkds are all too valuable to lynch today imo.
On the other hand why would a villager say it.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
To stop his wagon taking off?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoopy
I don't remember wuf policy lynching anyone in recent games.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
I agree that he's detached, I've looked back and even in the varchertines game where he was a wolf he was more engaged than this.
I think it was Gold Rush where it took him 3 game days to start to even consider the woolliness of actual people playing werewolf.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Luco is showing signs of life here, so that's encouraging.
I'm pretty sure that it's Wolf Ong and not Villager Ong who
1. says TWTBAW things that he later explains as, "why would I do that as a wolf"
2. excuses poor logic with, "hey I'm drunk/stoned"
3. drops votes without explanation
that said, he's voting for the same person I'm voting for, and Hoopy is still flatlining.
It's still true, btw, that on Level 0-1, Gabe pointing out Ong's wolfiness and then backing off reads like W-W, but neither Gabe nor Ong are Level 1 players.
also, given their history, Gabe as W-W is usually not shy about going after Ong (see vikings) or anyone (see, lots of games). As a villager, I think Gabe likes to give Ong the benefit of the doubt (see Ghost Angel game).
That was the one where I got subbed in n1 and was eaten straight away, I have no memory of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
A quick skim through his d1 posts that game shows he did joke about swinging for bid and took a while to warm up, so I'll give you that.
1. I've done this as both alignments.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
2. I've done this as both alignments.
3. I've done this as both alignments.
great, so you're doing a good job of making your alignment known here.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga