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Honestly, the loosening up has a lot less to do with adding hands to your 'normal' ranges for opening and more to do with isolating fish and bad regs. If you isolate like a madman already then all you need is table selection, but I would bet you could stand to isolate more.
First session in about 7 days last night - down about $1.50 over 700 hands. The National Science Foundation is great to work with - the sign you're in the big time for folks with careers like mine - but they demand a lot of work for the tiny stipend they provide. I didn't get any poker played for 3 days before I left 'cuz I was doing work they expected me to get done prior to the meeting. Once there, it was work, work and more work. Still, small price to pay to get a chance to work for them.
Robb what's your FTP name? (Can PM if you prefer)
Yo Robb, sup bro? Update?
haven't seen you post forever robb. hope all is good
It's all very good. I'm on the beach at Hilton Head Island with family. My sister and her husband and 3 kids few out from Kansas City. My parents came down, and my wife and 3 kids drove over.Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
Before this trip, I had math conferences, one with the NSF in DC and the other in Austin, TX. So I've played like 300 hands of poker this month and maybe 3k in the last 6 weeks.
I did get in one session last weekend and was down like 3 BI, but who really flippin' cares when you're headed for the beach the next day? I flopped a set 3 way against QQ and AA overs - rivered a Q. And I flopped 2 pair against AA only for the river to pair the board. So bye bye 2 BI and off to the beach.
I'll have to get back to the grind in early August. I hope all y'all are enjoying the last weeks of summer. My summer started for real about 9 days ago, and it feels awesome.
Today is my 12th wedding anniversary. But we're not celebrating tonight. We drove back from the beach yesterday - 6.5 hours in the van with 3 kids age 5 or less :shock: My wife and I are going out for a nice dinner later this week when we can arrange for a babysitter.
Today, our soon-to-be 3 year old moved out of his crib into a toddler bed - no more bars, he's LOOSE :D
I got two sessions of pokerz in, down 2 BI's. But my end-of-July withdrawal means I've taken nearly $2k out of my poker accounts. Daven's idea of withdrawing on a downswing works amazingly well for me psychologically.
Final thought: winning at 50nl isn't about taking down pots with the worst hand, it's about winning the maximum with the best hand.
Final thought: I just read this thread title as Winning is a Hobbit
Winnar in the randomness sweepstakes, lolQuote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Back to the grind - I'm running about 5 ptBB/100 last 4k hands. I was running a bit cold when I first got back to grindin', but I was playing like crap, too. But even rusty I can still play. :D
Here are a couple of happy hands, where I got reads and played well, imo.
Hand 1: 35/20/inf (small sample), but very feeshy in one hand I've seen. Read is that I should be making this shove against this guy w/ KJo, but the BDFD made shoveling easier.
$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($43.45)
UTG+1 ($28.25)
MP1 ($50.00)
MP2 ($32.95)
CO ($49.20)
BTN ($51.20)
SB ($55.25)
Hero (BB) ($60.45)
Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is BB :kc: :jc:
UTG raises to $1.75, 6 folds, Hero calls $1.25
Flop: :qs: :qc: :5d: ($3.75, 2 players)
Hero bets $2, UTG raises to $4, Hero calls $2
Turn: :3c: ($11.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $11.75, Hero raises to $47, UTG folds
Hand 2: 65/15/1 lulz - should I have value bet my K-high on the river?
$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($24.05)
UTG+1 ($16.30)
MP1 ($62.50)
MP2 ($55.05)
MP3 ($10.45)
CO ($56.60)
Hero (BTN) ($40.00)
SB ($25.70)
BB ($8.25)
Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is BTN :ks: :jh:
UTG calls $0.50, 5 folds, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.50
Flop: :4d: :ad: :6c: ($4.75, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn: :ac: ($4.75, 2 players)
UTG bets $3, Hero calls $3
River: :5h: ($10.75, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Final Pot: $10.75
UTG shows: :9h: :th:
Some things I'm learning.
1. Deception ain't deceiving without playing "standard" lines pretty often. Overused, it's just predictable suboptimal poker.
2. Ranges matter. I've been giving thought (and some maths) to thresholds, for example, at what PFR is it time to start squeezing certain villains light, say, with A4s or 98s? At what BTN steal% is it time to resteal from BB with A4o?
3. I probably spend way too much time randomizing various actions at the table, but I'm a geek and I like doing it.
4. ZOMFG!! betting like 1/3 or 2/5 pot on the flop is way too fun. Can't do it very often, but I use it on semi-drawy boards, half the time with total air, the other half with TPTK or an overpair. Specifically, I'm looking for situations where my opponent's range isn't draw-heavy but mine might seem to be.
5. After betting the flop 2/5's, betting the turn 4/5's is also fun.
6. Betting is a cultural thing - certain bets mean certain things to the community of players at a certain level, in a certain game type and on certain sites. So betting non-standard amounts (like #4 and #5 above) really crosses people up. It's like the conversation was in French, then someone starts talking in Japanese. No one understands it, so they react to it quickly without enough thought and make mistakes.
7. The culture of betting at 50nl FR on FTP is to NEVER AND I MEAN NEVER bet the pot, unless you're drawing/bluffing. It's almost that way, but standard bets are about 2/3's, so just throwing out a psb every now and again is speaking Japanese.
Great read over all! Man, your blog is packed with useful information. I almost feel greedy asking you to continue it :-DQuote:
Originally Posted by Robb
This betting as a culture line is gold if you think about it. Its something I have noticed a TON in MTTs and STTs. Even on stars a PSB is something I see rarely.
Interesting night last night. I wrote some AHK betting scripts - does anyone else do that? I haven't wanted to invest in a commercial product 'cuz the software changes mean constant updates/down time.
So I played some 2nl and 10nl, testing out a bet-2/3s-pot script (which I can't get to work right :( ), and those mothers must of thought I had lost my mind. I'd have 52o but have just finished some new code I thought might work, so I'd go raisy daisy. Hell, it was only a dime.
So I move up to 50nl, having to cut back on tables while I figure out my hotkeys. After an hour, I start thinking poker instead of "is that Right-click or Ctrl+Right-Click???" And I realize I'm on a massive heater, like +5 BI in 500 hands or something sick. I was getting AA and flopping A98 with some poor bastard who had AK raising my cbet. I had more sets in an hour last night than I think I've had all month, and half of them people are throwing chips at me. Weeeeeeee!!! Had a couple all-in coolers (deserved) to end the night, up about 4 BI's total over 900 hands or so.
About those scripts (which, since I'm a geek, were way more exciting than a 50nl heater - lulz) ... I play my tables stacked, so the buttons are all in the same place on every table. I hover over the "fold" and have 3 preflop hotkeys all based the "bet pot" button which auto-opens 3.5x + 1BB / limper. The other two auto-open 3x (for OTB) or 4x (for SB) by moving the mouse wheel after clicking the pot button. Just having preflop scripts is massively efficient. All the auto-open scripts move my mouse back over the Fold button as they finish, so I can take preflop actions on 10 tables in 15 seconds or less, as long as no one does anything stoopid.
Flop scripts that adjust to any pot size are harder. My scripts keep confusing FTP's software. So I'll probably have some common post flop bet sizes like $3 $5 and $10 where the script will auto-jump to the bet field, enter that bet, then allow me to scroll up or down to fine tune the bet I want.
I'm pretty much a geek as I mentioned a couple posts up, so the baby-programming was WAY more fun than it should have been if I was normal. Stayed up 'til 2 AM fiddling with it.
Just for full disclosure, I'm not trying to massively overdose on multitabling. But making all the repetitive motion extremely efficient frees up time to think about poker decisions and type notes on interesting hands.
Oh, yeah, and I've been doing a bunch of maths on squeeze bets. I'll be posting something soon. I've got the game theory and EV stuff right and 3 pages typed explaining my thought processes. I had a bug in my computations that I fixed last night, but I haven't had enough time to work through all the scenarios based on effective stacks, looser villains, etc.
I must admit.. the engineer in my does like the sound of this too! Can you only write these scripts for FT or for stars too?Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
I probably don't play enough tables to warrant any of this, but it sounds sweet.
My scripts just simulate mouse clicks. Basically, my preflop script points the mouse at the "pot" button and clicks, then moves to the "bet" button and clicks again. Then it repositions the cursor. The commands are simple Click {x-coord,y-coord} statements. I play on Starz, too, and it should work fine there, too. You just have to take a second to use the "spy" to find the cursor coords and you're in.Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
If you're betting by pointing and clicking, you can probably script it. The dialog box for typing in bets uses ASCII text, so you can just set up a click command to point and click there and type in 5.50, for example. After it's typed in, you can scroll up/dn to tweak it.
I'm gonna post something on baby AHK scripts for pokerz in the BC soon. Here's my latest scripting effort. When I wanna post HH's, this opens up the needed web pages.
_____
^+P::
Run http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/forum/
Run http://weaktight.com/hand/
Run http://pandora.com
return
_____
^+P sets Ctrl + Shift + P as a hotkey that sends three commands (the :: says "make that a hotkey sequence" and 'return' closes a compound command). With Mozilla open or closed, this will open three browser tabs and load FTR, weaktight and my tunes.
I'm geeking up my work computer right now with productivity enhancing hotkeys for checking Arsenal Football Club news, FTR, and downloading porn. :cool:
Oh wow. I'm completely clueless with this stuff but that scripts works like a charm! Thanks Robb! Def. hoping you make a post about your new preflop betting script because FT Shortcuts is killing me.
OK, I'll do it tonight. They're really easy. I post some screen shots and sh!t so it's super easy.Quote:
Originally Posted by kmind
Yah I'm interested in this stuff too, thanks dude!
So that above code you wrote, where is it saved? Are you writing a text file or what? sorry i'm a newb!
I guess I'll just wait for your post later :P
I just use a .txt file (wintext, or w/e text editor my computer has), type the commands and save it with the .ahk extension. Windows freaks out about the file extension change, I tell it to call down, and then the system recognizes it as a script.Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
Thanks to grif and kmind, who got me posting this stuff.
Creating Basic Scripts for Pokerz is a tutorial that teaches the basics of scripting and gives some screen shots on the parts I had a bit of trouble with initially (Rage helped me out when I was getting started).
And I put an advertisement post in the BC: Learning to Make Your own Betting Scripts.
Great post again!
Can these scripts only handle moushe up and down movements, or can it also handle text inputs?
For example, If I want a script that opens gmail. I can open the browswer, and it opens gmail. I know the coordinates for the "user name" section and I can click inthe box. Is there a way for it to automatically enter in my username?
Or any other text in any other text box you might wanna enter text into.. a bet size text box even.
AHK can imitate just about any action that you can do on your computer. So for opening gmail and signing in you could do a run command for www.gmail.com, you'll notice the cursor is already on the account by default so have AHK send your username, tab, password, then enter. I haven't used AHK for ages but it would look something like this:
(your hotkey)::
Run http://www.gmail.com/
Send griffey24+2gmail.com
Send {TAB}
Send irtehpwnleetz
Send {ENTER}
return
The second line being your username, +2 is actually a shift keystroke plus 2 which is @ and your domain name after. Fourth line is your password, then enter. Again, kinda rusty with AHK but that's the general idea for logging into your email. Sorry if I soulread your password.
p.s. Actually gmail doesn't require you to type @gmail after it so it could simply be Send griffey24 without the @gmail.com after.
Sweeet thats awesome, thanks gobbatino!
oh man I'm gonna get addicted to these things I'm pretty sure.
ugh time to change my password :P
Nps, man. If you're planning on getting addicted to it, here's the list of commands:
http://www.autohotkey.com/docs/commands.htm
Also, with the script before, you'll need a short command after you load gmail to have the computer wait a few moments before executing the rest of the script due to loading times, opening the browser, etc. Depends on how fast your computer/internet is, I guess you'll have to test it. The command is:
Sleep, x
where x is in milliseconds so
Sleep, 1000
will have it wait one second before moving on to the next command. Enjoy!
p.s. Sorry to hijack your OP Robb. :roll:
LoL - I learned something in your post that helped me, so no worries. Hijack away if you know things about scripting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gobbatino
Grif, here's my gmail acount script (thanks to tino):
__________
^G::
Run www.gmail.com
Sleep 5000
Send robbsinn
Send {Tab}
Send screwuthoughtidputmyrealpassworddidntu
Send {Enter}
return
__________
The sleep 5000 has the script pause for 5 second while Mozilla cranks up. Seems excessive, especially when a browser is already open. But it works (yeah, tino!!)
So I'm gonna learn to write an IF statement and possibly using a WinActive command to speed things up. I'll post it when I get it done.
oh mann yah you gotta lower that wait time, that would tilt me running a script to make my life easier/faster and having to wait 5 seconds :)
Good work guys, gonna give this all a go tonight!
Here's a nice script with two sick features:Quote:
Originally Posted by griffey24
_________
^G::
SetTitleMatchMode 2
Run www.gmail.com
WinWaitActive, Gmail
Sleep 750
Send robbsinn
Send {Tab}
Send uainteverguessinthispassword
Send {Enter}
return
_________
Sick feature 1: "WinWaitActive" command waits for a browser window/tab with "Gmail" in its title to become active.
Sick feature 2: The Sleep for 3/4's of a second starts AFTER the window activates and basically just gives a split second for the page to load. Since we go there often, most of the page is in cache, so 3/4's of a second should be enough time to load it.
Sick feature 2b: Since the "Sleep" time happens after the window activates, it doesn't matter whether the browser was open or not, or how long it takes for it to load.
Sick problem: The script doesn't recognize when gmail is ALREADY logged in, so it tries to enter some keystrokes in the URL field. I've tried a couple workarounds, but haven't fixed it, yet. I'll post again when I do.
Griffey, 750 milliseconds works pretty seamlessly for me but you can speed it if your machine/internet connection is faster.
I was thinking this might be a problem. Can't you just tell the cursor to go to the coordinates where the username is normally located and click down and then type in the username. If the page isnt logged in, it will type it in, if it is already logged in, it will randomly press the coordinates which is now a location in our inbox and won't be able ot type there anyhow?Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
I'm just making assumptions here, I was gonna try this later.
Try using the exact name for the window before you log on. On Firefox it's:
WinWaitActive Google Mail - Mozilla Firefox
since when you're logged in it should be something different such as
Gmail - Inbox (372) - [email protected] - Mozilla Firefox
it should work, I think.
Warning: Brag. Sick heater graph:
http://xs142.xs.to/xs142/09325/heatergraph522.jpg
The green line ends in top right, 'cuz this was the VERY last hand (I had sat out of all my tables except this one):
$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($63.25)
UTG+1 ($29.75)
MP1 ($84.60)
MP2 ($10.00)
MP3 ($10.00)
CO ($11.50)
BTN ($82.55)
SB ($21.40)
BB ($19.50)
Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is UTG :4c: :4d:
Hero raises to $1.75, 5 folds, BTN calls $1.75, SB raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.75, BTN calls $1.75
Flop: :4s: :3c: :3d: ($11, 3 players)
SB bets $11, Hero calls $11, BTN raises to $39, SB goes all-in $6.90, Hero goes all-in $59.75, BTN calls $20.75
Turn: :5h: ($148.40, 3 players)
River: :jd: ($148.40, 3 players)
Final Pot: $148.40
Hero shows: :4c: :4d:
BTN shows: :3s: :2s:
SB shows: :kd: :ks:
Hero wins $145.40 ( won +$82.15 )
Hand 1 (above): Just to clarify my preflop action, SB was goofy 16/12 player I little read on but no respect for, and BTN was LAG-tard I wanted to play against deep.
Hand 2: Most folks know I'm not a nit, but both of these villains were. I REALLY wanted to shovel:
$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($50.45)
UTG+1 ($60.70)
MP1 ($40.10)
MP2 ($119.25)
Hero (MP3) ($73.70)
CO ($71.30)
BTN ($50.00)
SB ($96.20)
BB ($50.00)
Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is MP3 :qs: :qd:
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 raises to $2.25, Hero calls $2.25, 4 folds, MP1 raises to $8, MP2 raises to $27, Hero folds, MP1 goes all-in $40.10, MP2 calls $13.10
Flop: :8d: :3c: :6d: ($83.20, 2 players)
Turn: :ac: ($83.20, 2 players)
River: :4d: ($83.20, 2 players)
Final Pot: $83.20
MP1 shows: :kd: :as:
MP2 shows: :ah: :ad:
Hand 3:And this hand made an already-tilting LAG-tard leave the table:
$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($54.40)
UTG+1 ($33.15)
MP1 ($73.70)
Hero (MP2) ($117.55)
CO ($50.20)
BTN ($61.60)
SB ($57.65)
BB ($51.50)
Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is MP2 :4c: :ac:
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.25, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.75
Flop: :9d: :5c: :2c: ($5.25, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $3, UTG+1 calls $3
Turn: :3c: ($11.25, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $5, UTG+1 calls $5
River: :2s: ($21.25, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $12.50, Hero raises to $25, UTG+1 goes all-in $10.40
Final Pot: $67.05
UTG+1 shows: :9c: :7c:
Hero shows: :4c: :ac:
Hero wins $66.15 ( won +$30.90 )
Sorry for brag post, but I hadn't hit a straight flush in 2009 though I've paid a couple of them off.
And, of course, I made a screen shot AHK script to help speed up posting pics online 'cuz that's what I've been doing lately:
__________
^+S::
Send {PrintScreen}
Run Microsoft Photo Editor
WinWait Microsoft Photo Editor
Send !{E}
Send {N}
return
ah, some very sick hands there robb.
Hi, i'm back btw!
Keep in touch fella, i messaged you on here a little whiles ago. I have a new op.
So you're playing 50nl these days i see?
laters.
Yeah, I was away from pokerz for most of June and July, and away from FTR for most of July. And all the threads/ops I was following no longer send me emails when they update **argh!!!** so I've been (slowly) going through and finding everyone's threads to get back in the loop.Quote:
Originally Posted by wonderland
Glad you're back, too. Hope poker goes well for you.
Yes, I'm playing 50nl FR the first three weeks this month to book my monthly win and needed hands for bonus level I want. The last 10 days, I'll work on my 6m and possibly HU game a little. I'll probably play a day at 25nl 6m, then 50 and then a 100nl. I'm still rolled comfortably for 100nl, but I've been withdrawing $200 / month and I'm really rusty. So I'm winning and working on theory and maths and how to program AHK scripts.
OK, in between AHK scripts, I've been working on the math behind the the Squeeze bet, specifically wider ranges for value squeezes, light squeezes and Hero adjustments to serial squeezing. Situation: 3.5 BB PFR, 1 caller, Hero 14 BB squeeze LP. All fold except (maybe) PFR.
There are three cases: PFR folds (F), calls (C) or 4bets (B). F + C + B = 1, and thus:
EV = 8 F - 14 B + C * {some function of Q and P}
The function in brackets depends on Hero's winning percentage (Q) and the average pot size when we see a flop (P). Call it F(Q,P). Hero's investment postflop is (P-5)/2 because of the 5 BB of dead money, and he wins (P+5)/2. This analysis assumes Hero can avoid reverse implied odds when forced to play postflop. When squeezing light, Hero must win a proportional share of big pots and small/medium pots, or win more than his share of small pots.
F(Q,P) = Q ( P + 5 ) / 2 - ( 1 - Q ) ( P - 5 ) / 2 = ... = P ( Q - 0.5 ) + 2.5
Setting EV = 0, and solving for Q, and then rearranging in several different ways to achieve something usable and reasonably simple, we get:
Q = (1/P) [ ( 14 B - 8.5 F ) / C ) -2.5 ] + 0.5
IMPORTANT!! The way I wrote F(Q,P) requires Q to be more than just equity, or how we think of poker equity. Q here is the "earn-able" proportion of the total dollars Hero invests that he can "win back" postflop. So Q is increased by position and includes Hero's postflop skill difference vs. this specific villain. An unimportant fact is that I assumed postflop average pot size P to be 80 BB when I worked through a few dozen example ranges, but Q turns out not to depend too heavily on it. We just need a ball park figure there.
I made an excel spreadsheet which does the math and then produced a couple hundred sample combinations of various PFR, 4b and CC ranges. (I'll ship it to you if you bothered to read all this and pm me.) But just the equation shows some interesting points.
1. The playable equity Q varies inversely with P, the postflop average pot size. This means that short stackers have a HUGE additional edge when squeezing, since their downside when they get stuck in a big pot is less.
2. The term in parenthesis is "Don't Continue Equity" divided by Continuation %. Well, whenever Villain's Fold:4b ratio is ~ 3:2, this value is positive. In other words, against any TAGG-reg, Hero can squeeze light in LP and then just break even (or slightly worse) when playing a flop to earn TONS of chips.
3. Whenever TAGG-reg Villains fail to adjust and are in positions where they continue with about half their range, Hero generally needs Q ~ 42 - 45 to break even.
4. If Villain continues with 40% of his range or less (whether PFR is small or big), Hero generally needs Q ~ 33% to break even.
5. Q doesn't change much in the blinds vs. LP squeezes, but Hero's ability to derive playable equity is severely diminished.
6. What if we're villain? Then adjusting is a giant pain in the arse. I haven't done tons of analysis here (next week's project!), but I do know it doesn't matter (much) in terms of impact on Q whether we adjust by 4b'ing lighter or calling more, but there are obviously limits to how much of our range we can 4bet when we're opening in a wide PFR spot. Obviously, flatting is better ip, and 4b'ing lighter is better oop due to playability issues.
7. Interesting Adjustment: Suppose a notoriously light squeezer is in the blinds and Hero's the flat caller in LP (so he'll have position postflop). Hero should FLAT a MUCH wider range than I would have thought, especially mediocre broadways we wouldn't generally want to play big pots with because they connect with lots of flops in the MIDDLE of the light squeezer's polarized range. There's so much dead money in the pot that Hero needs Q < 20% in most cases to profit.
Some rules of thumb when considering light squeezes:
1. Against nits and when squeezing from the blinds, we're need for F (fold %, or squeeze FE) to be ~60%, e.g. for F > 1.5 C. Otherwise, squeezing light is unlikely to be profitable.
2. LP squeezes are generally profitable when Villain will continue half or less of the time (F > C). This assumes we're squeezing light with hands like Axs or sc's where our equity will be in the 30's but we'll increase it ~42-45 by leveraging positional advantage and postflop skill advantage (which hopefully exists :P).
3. Adjusting to massive squeezing requires us to play uncomfortably big pots with medium strength hands, or tighten up preflop, or both. If we continue a third of the time or less, we're exploitable by someone squeezing with all their Axs and sc's plus a pretty wide value range.
4. Flat calling dynamics are more interesting than I realized, and in a game with lots of squeezes, Hero MUST adjust his LP flat calling strategy. Probably do it less, first of all, then shift the range away from small pp's and toward big cards hands that will hold up well when Hero flats after the PFR folds (and squeezer is in blinds).
or just flat his JJ and ship it in to a squeeze ;)
geek.Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Rather than math, I've been writing-learning about some simple postflop spots and max-EV vs +-EV lines during the coupld of weeks i'm taking off plazing poker. That, and hiking and camping and general scandanavian wandering and stuff...
also, did i send you that bet-sizing math-thing about six months back?
Never got the bet-size math thing, I don't think. I've done plenty of the "think tank" approach where I play a range through postflop streets against different types of villains. That's definitely helpful, though my mind might wander off poker if I was in Scandinavia.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
I'm going to put together some ranges and poker stove work to go along with the above squeeze maths, but I'm headed for a nap. I woke up at 4 AM (a child had wet the bed) and never back to sleep.
I just feel like there are certain "inflection" points where, if Villain is going to continue with X range and raise with Y range, that means Hero should adjust by playing combo WZ in a certain way. I want to understand those inflection points and their implications. 'Cuz learning 100nl by "feel" sucks. I feel like I need to work on the typical dealing-with-agro spots and get some coherence my adjustments for about a week from now when I start playing 6m again and readjust to 100nl after 10 weeks of rustiness and 50nl full nit.
I've got some other mathy posts in the works, too. But now it's time for sleep.
I have a question Robb.Quote:
'Cuz learning 100nl by "feel" sucks.
So, are you saying that learning 100nl by just playing it and trying just make sensible decisions, play straightforward etc. isn't working?
and if so, what are you coming up against opposition wise? AND does this imply that the only real winners at 100nl are people who are highly maths oriented?
I´d suggests a different view on stakes and skill levels. It´s not like there was THAT 100nl game and another 50nl or 2nl or 1knl or whatever stakes game. It´s all the same game and nothing changes, but ranges. Really, thats what it all comes down to. If anybody feels like generalizing and say that such games "play more aggro" or others "are full of calling stations" please realize, that in one case betting and raising ranges widen (and hence, weaken), in the other calling ranges are wider. Yet it´s not like there was any room for generalizations of such kind, you will just find a certain subset of playertypes (who are classified by common ranges in particular situations) at different stakes.Quote:
Originally Posted by wonderland
You don´t learn 100NL and neither do you learn any other stake of no boundaries hold thems. All you gotta learn is to read a hand, to perceive your opponent and to act accordingly, be it .02/.04 or 200/400. Learning a specific limit is nothing but becoming familiar with how to deal with common scenarios and to put them as a ready made action in your toolbox to save time and brain capacity at the table.
I think XTR got it right - the game is the same, but I'm not as successful in poker (50nl, 100nl, w/e) as I want to be. So the way I make sense of the game is work on maths. I haven't had a chance to post my results, yet, but I've put together sample ranges for villains of certain ilks and thought a lot about how to maximize my profit in various situations and adjust appropriately.
It's like XTR says, I think, it's all about ranges. But I understand ranges best in mathematical terms, so I do the math. Maybe I should have said "learning to respond the different ranges at 100nl by feel alone" SUCKS.
I think 100nl is the first time I've found regs who adjust to me and how I play. So I have to make my own game more flexible and resilient. Knowing what adjustments might work is easy. Knowing when and where to adjust, and why, and how effective each counter-adjustment might be ... well, that's what I'm working on.
Here's a chart to give some of the break-even points for Hero given various ranges for Villain's 4bets, flat calls and folds. I've tried to find combinations of parameters that get us Q's about 1/3, 2/5 and 1/2:
http://xs842.xs.to/xs842/09331/squeezes100.jpg
Let's talk about a TAGG-reg opening in MP with 14% of all his hands, say something like 22+, AJ+, ATs, KQ, KJs, 76s+ and A2s - A4s, which is spot on 14% and might be reasonable. What will he continue with? Let's say he 4bets QQ+ and AK, flats AQ, AJs, KQ, and 88 - JJ.
So this villain is 14/3/4.5 (that's PFR/4b/flat). That combination isn't on the chart, but it turns out that Hero needs Q = 45% to make the action profitable. Here is the stove for Hero's Squeeze with an sc and Axs, two common light squeeze choices.
Squeeze w/ 98s equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.354% 65.98% 00.37% 244044828 1371864.00 { JJ-88, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 33.646% 33.27% 00.37% 123069108 1371864.00 { 98s }
Squeeze w/ A4s equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.634% 58.65% 00.98% 220947144 3699358.00 { JJ-88, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 40.366% 39.38% 00.98% 148361020 3699358.00 { A4s }
In position squeezing with Axs, Hero's equity is only 5% less than Q, so he should be well able to eke some profit. Since this is a hand I don't much flatting with, it's a perfect candidate for squeezing. Even though sc's flop good, we can probably make more with it flatting since it's a more deceptive hand postflop. (I have a big maths posts on the flopability of sc's and Axs, which I'll get to some time this week.) What about squeezing with a hand like K9s which I would normally fold.
Squeeze w/ K9s equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.070% 63.24% 00.83% 229576996 3002414.00 { JJ-88, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 35.930% 35.10% 00.83% 127426624 3002414.00 { K9s }
This seems to me to be pretty borderline. I probably still fold. You can play around with various combos you typically squeeze, flat or fold and see how they match up playability-wise vs. the needed 45% Q, but remember it's breakeven equity. I'm looking for hands where I can about 50% of the time so the profits take care of the times the original flat caller bombs and when I misjudge Villain's range. So with a PFR of only 14%, I'm squeezing carefully with higher value "light" combos.
The nice thing is that we often face TAGG-reg villains who open more like 18% or 20% but don't adjust their flat calling range (like me, for example, until this post :P). What if the PFR range is 22+, 65s+, Axs, AT+, KJ and KTs+? And what if this reg doesn't adjust his 4b/flatting ranges? Then Q = 34.3%, and our equity is much better with various mediocre hands. Here are a few:
Squeeze w/ JTs equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.286% 59.90% 00.38% 217450344 1391784.00 { JJ-88, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 39.714% 39.33% 00.38% 142774536 1391784.00 { JTs }
Squeeze w/ A8os equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.412% 62.32% 01.09% 665873892 11673474.00 { JJ-88, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 36.588% 35.50% 01.09% 379256856 11673474.00 { A8o }
So you can see the results, and come to your own conclusions. But I've learned a lot. The next step for me is take this and flip toward Hero getting squeezed, reset the EV equation, recalculate Q and then look at continuation ranges Hero can use to adjust in high squeeze games.
Finally, oop sucks. I think people squeeze too light a lot of time oop. Generally, unless we expect Villain's PFR near 20% and continuation range around 8% or 9%, we're going to be hard pressed to show a profit with sc's and Axs generally speaking. But this analysis shows why squeezing is so profitable. There are lots of players who continue with a good bit LESS than 7% of their hands when squeezed, so some nit who's only gonna continue with 5% is just begging for a squeeze any time PFR ~ 11 or 12 if squeezer has position, and any time PFR ~ 13 or 14 if squeezer is oop.
First glance at adjusting. I tried the stove with AA and AKs included in Villain's flat call range (since I tend to mix up my plans with the premium comobs). By the way, this shifts Hero's Q number. Villain is now 14/2.2/5.3, and Hero's Q ~ 33%. The equity number for Axs only decreases by 2%. So shifting premium hands out of the 4b range into the flat call range WITHOUT shifting some less powerful hands back into the 4b range is HORRIBLE. In squeeze happy games, Hero can probably jam with at least 75% of premium combos, just keeping enough the flat range to mix it up slightly. The reason Hero should jam against most squeezes is that to combat the squeeze, 4b'ing is better than flatting. Since Hero needs an uncomfortably wide 4b range, it's good to leave the big hands in there and probably include some of the top end of the flat calling range I specified, say, JJ/AQ type hands.
I'm within a couple thousand 50nl hands of having enough FTP's to buy this:
Samsung T240 24-inch LCD Monitor
It costs me M = 81000 * 0.27 * 0.005 ~ $110 worth of rake, but still well over $200 worth of extra poker profits for the month. The max resolution will be about 80% more area than what I'm playing on now with enough pixels to display 4 Full Tilt tables tiled at their DEFAULT size - with room left at the side for HEM's HH window or note-taking windows although they'll be only partly visible.
LoL, my eyes aren't getting any younger, so this HAS to be +++EV.
I'll have to rewrite all my betting scripts, but I'm learning how to program GUI windows in AHK, so I'll probably automate the setup and give them to FTR folks who want to adjust them for their own setups and other poker clients, but who also don't feel like fiddling with learning to program scripts.
I know it's off topic now - but glad to see there's other geeks with the same issues as me :P I ended up making a basic HUD (more of a chart) that worked under linux from a PT3 DB back when it was in beta - spent a week or so making it behave properly... then used it for a total of what 2 weeks before I got distracted by something else and got too busy coding to actually play poker and use it.. Oops!Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Geek obsessions == -EV..
I was reading Ben's op thread this morning, and I'm having a worse downswing than his. I don't talk about it a lot online 'cuz I don't like whining. I know Ben's much the same way. We have both learned to own our losses, not talk about variance when there are leaks.
But ya know what? Sometimes I HATE this poker motherf****r!!! I went on a 12 BI downswing over the last 3 sessions, and sure I tilted some (not really bad) and I played bad (not really bad). I just refocused on played again last night, up 2 BI in 1.1k hands. No real changes, so maybe the variance was the issue.
I think the uncertainty is what gets to me. Do I suck at poker? (Yes, probably.) Or is it just variance? And when I win is it just luck? I always find myself questioning myself. And that sucks.
Just consider your 12BI downswing a 10K breakeven stretch
that is when you win those buyins back in 10K hands
Yeah, this is my third 10+ BI downswing in the last few months, one of which happened at 100nl. So I was just recovering from those to manage breakeven when this one happened.Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Sorry, I wasn't gonna whine.
I did order the 24" monitor with FTP's Wednesday and got $75 in rakeback today. And I am getting better at poker. I understand the game better than I did 6 months ago or a year ago. And even though I'm barely breakeven over the last few months at the tables, I've still profited by ~ $2,000 in rakeback and bonuses this year.
So it's all good. And I know it. And I still do look forward to playing poker sessions every night.
lucky you, I have to force myself to do itQuote:
Originally Posted by Robb
dude, this kinda thing typically means you're playing at least a little poorly at least some of the time. Take this from someone with a number of 20+bi downswings this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Do some serious session analysis, HEM filtering, etc... this sort of thing http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...st-t87603.html
look at what happens in pots where you're calling big bets, look at your bet-fold hands and especially your check-call hands. Think about the role of fish.
understand what your biggest leaks are, and the high variance spots that are at best neutral or barely +ve EV.
I haven't read your squeeze post through yet, but do note that getting in situations where pot odds make a call of a 5-bet shove pre-flop +EV can also be translated as getting it in pre-flop as 80-20 dog... etc...
this is good and bad... understanding the game better <> playing better. I understand the game infinitely better than when i wrote my whispered words of wisdom post about nine months ago http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...om-t76292.html - but that hasn't always translated into better results.Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I think we move into interesting territory as we learn, understand, and start to apply new concepts (=better) but before we comprehend the full implications.
I'll be back in online poker world in a few more days, so i'll write more then. Kinda nervous cos i've decided that it's about time to play the stakes i'm rolled for. So i'll likely be writing a lot.
Qualified Iron Man Silver in 15 days (minimum possible). Learned about the "Iron Day" and "Iron Month" options where, if you're close to your level, you can use medals to continue. I've never really been where I needed that, but as I try to develop my withdrawals each month those bonuses will become more important.
Up nearly 3 BI today. Switched over 6m, played some 25nl yesterday and then 50nl to warm up. Downswing reached 16 BI's before turning around. That makes two ~ 15 BI downswings and a 20 BI downswing this year, probably 'cuz I suck at poker. But I'm just trying to keep playing as well as I can and learn more about the game.
Poker life is good. Whoever told all the 50nl 6m regs at FTP to "open up," I'm willing to kiss that guy on the mouth. Wow. What happened to the 18/15 6m nits that used to infest these stakes on Tilt? I find it hard to sit down at a table without at least two 40/25 types joining me. I sat with 2 known LAGG's last night, and another joined right away. Then a maniac sat down that made the 40/25 guys seem like nits. I made over 2 BI on that table for the 10 minutes the "everyone plays every hand" fun lasted.
And trust me, I'm not complaining. They aren't good LAGG's. They really suck postflop, so the wide open range is just spew heavy. I don't know what Stox vid pro suggested opening any two as long as they're sooted, but God bless him.
I'm also on the verge of my poker theorem. I've been doing a lot of maths like the Squeeze Maths above, working on 4b'ing light, 3b'ing light. I'm finding like XTR said a few posts up that mathematically and equity-wise, our opponents' range dictates a fairly narrow band of adjustments or counter-ranges. We have some room for creativity, but there is certainly a "best" proportion of raises/calls/folds that makes sense given a certain range from villain. I'm working on the math, trying to simplify into a statement of poker simplicity worthy of the name "poker theorem."
I'm also finding that, since I did the Squeeze Maths posts, I am 200% more effective at squeeze plays than I was. What I find interesting is that I was making a lot more mistakes than I realized. I was actually squeezing too rarely, and also in many of the wrong spots. So I've cleaned up the spewy spots and added a nice percentage of new and profitable spots. And it's really made a difference in my 6m results.
One problem I found is that I was attacking TAGG's in spots where their PFR range was simply too narrow. Now, I estimate their continuing ranges, then calculate back to a PFR needed for the squeeze to be profitable. If the villain's PFR is high enough, I squeeze with any legitimate hand. But I'm staying out of trouble even with "premium" light squeezing hands because I'm very focused on profitable ranges. I found that most LAGG's often possess a very inefficient and exploitable bundle of "play-back" hands relative to their PFR range, even the "maniacal" LAGG's are good candidates for a squeeze if your willing to sufficiently adjust your own ranges.
One break through I realized - finally - is that when we "open up" our stealing percentage in the CO, for example, we're very exploitable if we don't also widen our 4b/call ranges when Villain starts 3b'ing us light. We can't adjust one part of our playing range in isolation, or our proportion gets very unbalanced and exploitable. If we adjust all the pieces of our ranges at once, then we're much more difficult to adjust to and exploit.
I'm doing better now that I start at the top, and think: "against this BB Villain, I would be willing to 4b these hands, and flat the 3b with these hands, so I'll attempt to steal with all these hands." Hero can't let his steal range get too far out ahead of his continuation range (unless the villains really suck and can't adjust at all effectively).
how's the running going? prop-bet time again? At my end I'm up for something along the lines of at least two of:
running (5km++)
Swimming (1.3km++)
Juggling (1hr+)
Climbing (1 session)
almost every day for the next month.
I'm fine if you keep your end as it was last time around
looking forward to this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
I've just dumped your squeeze posts into a text file so i can print them out somewhere and read them while i drink a morning coffee.
Looks like you're back in real-progress-land! I like that.
Wow, I really havnt kept up on reading others blogs. Self obsessed lately I guess :(. Shitty to hear you've had even worse downswing issues. Lately seems like half of FTR is. Heres hoping we both push through and come out with just a blip on our long term graphs.
I played some 100nl today, first session. I lost, but felt really good. It really felt like people were just playing straightfoward, like they might as well just show me their hands (then I'd call anyway, but thats another issue).
short version - squeeze work you have done is very nice.
Long version -
I wonder how many people are going to properly read what you have written and work through the implications. Not too many I hope! Anyway, I read the squeeze posts and ran through the math.
I like the post and it has made me think further about a couple of spots...
You may enjoy how I managed to somehow get stuck at Q(P+5)/2 cos i was like hang on it's Q(P-5)/2+5Q.... and then i didn't want to put C in the extension to replace the ....
but i got there!
My comments:
I know you address this in bold earlier in the post, but I'm uncertain on using P = 80, especially as P=contested pot size rather than pot size, meaning that you're assuming a bet and a raise on the flop and/or HU to a turn a lot of the time. Lucky it doesn't make much difference to Q, but for other analysis/spots this may become more important.
Re your notes
1) Q vs short-stacks vs P. I think this needs to be reconsidered (not that it matters until you choose to shortstack). At 20bb a squeeze == All-In, meaning that B=0. Now it becomes a simple matter of villain tendencies re calling/folding and their ranges to do so. Assuming a call range of 88+/KQs/AJs+ from some villains means one thing for your range, other call ranges mean something different. Also need to consider that the flat-caller often has a monster if there are 2 or more short-stacks left to act...
anyway, analysis becomes even simpler at (1/45)*(-8F/C -2.5)+0.5, right?
The maths geek in me wants to shortstack. But... I'll probably open a stars account, tell nobody, and shortstack it while laughing at FTR mid-stakes regs groaning about awful shortstackers
2) here I got interested when i was thinking about full ring application here - basically trying to figure out how easy it is to be breakeven post-flop against a 2% range (i.e. a 13-10 who opened from EP or MP cos otherwise we can't LP squeeze, so his range is like 7-2-2 where calling range=4-bet range about evenly balanced)
And this is where i started to wonder about how post-flop equity was going to be calculated, cos stoving ranges assumes a static state post-flop, and that doesn't happen. 9Ts does just great against AA, unless you have to play a flop with your one pair/gutshot/runner runner FD...
3/4 combined) obvious implication here is how we should deal with a squeeze when we are either the PFR or the flat-caller! more 4-betting. nh.
5) the whole thing has lead me to seriously question some of my earlier (and incorrect) ideas about blind squeeze plays
As above, I switch off at the specific hand analysis a little because of the stove-approach vs multi-street dynamic in HU pots. It's obviously useful, I think it needs to be combined with solid flop and turn range-estimation and understanding of villain's post-flop tendencies
@ BJ & Daven - thx guys I wasn't sure if anyone was still reading this ;)
Thanks - at its worst, my downswing was 20 BI's, but I rebounded with 7 BI's in a sesh right afterward, so it was more like a 15 BI swong as things leveled out. Hope your swong turns back to the good soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by bjsaust
thxQuote:
Originally Posted by daven
Ya know, I wonder about that some days...how much of my best stuff I should share online. But then I realize that very few of the noobies around here who could really use it are willing to work on it very hard anyway. The only guys likely to benefit are those who were already good at pokerz and are working on their own stuff...so I'll post it wtf maybe someone will benefit. I know I benefit from working through it enough to post/share.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
I agree - it's a pretty straightforward range/stove exercise against short stacks. What I learned looking at the math was that HERO playing a normal stack still gains all the benefits of a short-stack squeeze when he squeezes the short stack. The short stack's calling range doesn't really matter - a squeeze forces a short stack to commit only with his value range, or fold. If we can assess HIS opinion of his value range accurately, we can pwn him with the sick squeeze in the right spots.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
Squeezing in FR can only happen, like you point out, against the nittiest of villains who fold to the squeeze almost all the time, or some LAGG who got drunk and joined a FR table instead of his normal 6m game.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
The postflop isn't equity, per se. It's the percentage of time Hero can manage to win the chips postflop. So we take it on a case by case basis. Knowing we need, say, 40% of the chips postflop to make the squeeze profitable, can we win that much with T9s against his likely calling range. By the way, I like the fact that you put AA in his "flat the squeeze bet" range. You're thinking correctly (which I wasn't not too long ago). Too many people put too many premium combos in their 4b range, but anyone who's squeezing at all "light" is going to fold the squeeze to a 4b. With AA, you're almost always pretty happy (or should be!) to flat the squeeze and pray for the pair of 2's to your left to come along for a flop.
This goes with the comment above, we do better to play our premium combos (or many of them) by just calling, rather than raising, someone who squeezes light. We do have to leave some premium combos in the 4b'ing range, tho, just for appearances sake, and then fill up the 4b range with light combos.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
That part really worried the TAGG in me, since I don't like getting out of ahead of poor hands in huge pots. But this is the heart of my theorem, or will be when I'm done formulating it. HERO doesn't get to determine his preferred range of "big pot" hands. HERO inherits a pretty narrow "optimal" range of hands based on villain's aggression. When our opponents bet/raise lighter, they force many more of our mediocre combos into our "big pot" range. We can refuse to play those combos in big pots, but only by leaving ourselves very exploitable in very obvious ways.
I do see your point here. To explain further, I was thinking not so much about equity as playability, so that part of the post was probably misleading. At the tables, I to tend to think something like, "yeah, I can take this down 40% or more of the times with A4s and position - I've got blockers and he's pretty weak-tight in big pots, playing lots of fit-or-fold." If I estimate he's got a wide enough calling range to make missing a flop possible, then I feel like I can outplay him and will try the squeeze.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
In fact, I'm sorry I'm not explaining things well, because the whole beauty of the analysis from my point of view is that it gives us a very attainable target whenever we squeeze and get called. I used to play as though I had to win 80% of the contested pots, whereas now I just let it go on the rare occasion I get 4b or when I get called and see the world's worst flop for my hand. Mathematically, if I've done my preflop analysis right, I only have to win ~40% (worst case) when I'm flat called. That allows me to get away from bad squeezes cheap knowing I can pick up my 40% when I connect with flops and when the pot is obviously orphaned. I don't have to play "raisy daisy" like durrr to make the squeeze profitable. I just have to win my natural share and few from just being better prepared than my opponent.
The whole reason why noobies won't profit from reading this - and it's the thing you picked up on right away - the whole exercise is useless when left in term of percentages. Until we slot in various combos and ranges based on different types of villain profiles, the numbers aren't helpful. So I've done some work there (but less than I should). I now realize that if someone we have 2k HH's on has a 12% squeeze bet stat, I've gotta be fist-pump excited about how weak most of that range is, and the BETTER he is the WEAKER it is since he will probably put much of his KK+ in his value call-behind-the-caller range especially if he's ip.
But the exercise is pretty helpful if you're good at turning those percentages into real ranges and estimating playability of various hands against that range postflop.
Final comment I'll make is this: I've never seen a post or video that talked about isolating isolators. Is everyone else just that much more aware of it that it doesn't need to be discussed? Or is it being discussed on FTR but not in the BC? It's the one thing about poker I discovered pretty much for myself, but it's such an obvious adjustment (once you see it) that I'm surprised it's not more widely talked about on FTR. We probably don't need to post on it in the BC, tho - it's one of those "have to pick your spots" spots where the picking can be a bit tricky.
I think it's because it's enough like squeezing that it doesn't need too much of its own separate discussion
i haven't sent the bet-sizing math over cos i got sidetracked yesterday by this, another question, a good book, climbing, cooking, and actually playing poker. Today perhaps?
the guts of this post, nice.Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
key - and the real value of Q... implications for c-betting vs checking behind are interesting, and from there the assumption of average contested pot size in squeeze pots - but, like you said, Q doesn't vary with P that much.Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
posting it in the BC will get a bunch of them moving back down to 5nl in no time flat.... Umm, I guess I only really figured it out during my 18-15 FR experimentation over the last few months. That, and now that i watch the occasional video means i realise that all FR regs on Full Tilt have watched Fooz' series, which means they're all trying to isolate too frequently/inappropriately (at least until they learn what an iso really is and adjust back to sanity), which means you can take a 15-12 and 55% fold to 3-bet type, note they're iso-ing an MP limp from dead money and bang. I'm not sure if he talked about it in the vids or not? It has also lead to some light 4-betting on my part when I know their 3-bet is cos i was obviously isolating vs opening a decent hand ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Seems like you're enjoying life, which is much more important most days than working on pokerz. :PQuote:
Originally Posted by daven
I was enjoying life by tackling the BEAST 5 MILER this morning and thinking about poker lots during the early parts of the run. The latter parts were more focused on my last will and testament and trying to recall if my various insurance policies were paid up.
One thing I remembered learning while doing the maths is that SMALLER postflop pot sizes actually makes the squeeze MORE profitable. It limits the potential all-in downside. Short-stack squeezers need to be jammed on frequently if we think they're doing it light. On the other hand, Daven, as you point out, it makes the squeeze that much more profitable for the shorties.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
The place where we have to be careful is when we squeeze and both our stack and the PFR's are 150 BB or more deep. We can still squeeze light, but we're going to have to be very careful not to jam our way into what rock climbers call the "coffin zone," the place where we're committed to a big pot (or potentially nasty fall) with no value (or protection).
This has made me lol at least 3 times this morning.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
----
Speaking of BEAST 5 MILERS, I'll take you up on the fitness prop bet deal. I'll post something in our old thread from last Spring later today. I wanted to tackle the BEAST for a second time in 5 days to see how my body would hold up. I've been adding some lifting and cardio at the gym 3 days a week to 3 hard running days, but I'm trying to focus on arms, chest and back at the gym to save the legs for distance.
The upshot is that I think after today's run I have a decent measure of my current fitness levels, so I can pose a challenge that will challenge both my character and courage while I'm completing it. I've got an idea for a short bet on a strong finish to August building to a more substantial bet on September's fitness. As I said, I will post later today.
Daven, game on :P
Robb v. Daven Fitness Prop Bets
My name is Robb and I'm an alcoholic. I get drunk on playing too many tables. I get so inebriated that I hurl chips. I turn games I can crush into break-even death swamps just so I can have another 6 pack of tables open.
I go "on the wagon" every few weeks, play better, win more, then get sauced up again with two too many. Then two too many ain't enough, and it takes three too many to feed my habit. Then four. Then a misclick costs me 1/2 BI 'cuz I'm stumbling around too many tables in a drunken auto-piloting stupor.
I have been sober for 3 days now. And counting.
OK, I will only play 6 tables of 6m, and 12 tables of FR. At those amounts, I'm taking notes, watching hands I'm not involved in on a couple key tables, and have time to look at popup stats preflop and adjust my ranges accordingly. Rage's scripts really help by allowing me to have "featured" tables and deal with folding a lot very quickly. But still, if I play more than that amount, my win rate suffers and my learning rate deteriorates even more quickly.
In the past month or so, I've been trying to "max out" on my Iron Man bonuses, but I need to just admit that at 50nl with the hours I have available each month, I'm doing well to focus on Gold, not Iron. I'd like to be back at 100nl 6m next month, but top level Iron Man's just gonna have to wait for the bigger pot sizes. Still, at Gold Level, I can earn ~$25 per month in bonus.
So, I'm saying no to massive volume via mass tabling.
And heck, maybe I'll even play some hands tonight.
When you say isolating isolators, you really mean 3-bet bluffing them? To me its a sign of whos paying attention and thinking about their play. I'll do it a bit and see how they react. Likewise occassionally I'll find someone who does it to me, but the fact the most regs dont is a pretty fair indication that they're weak regs. In fact, thats one of the things I really noticed when I took a shot at 200nl. At 100nl other regs would let me isolate to my hearts content. How easy is poker when the other 'good' players constantly let you play HU against the table money? At 200nl though, I seemed to find it much harder to just isolate from wherever whenever I wanted to.
Got sick, didn't play much for a week. Still on a downswong, but who cares? I got my 24" wide monitor for Full Tilt points in the mail yesterday and spent last night reconfiguring my poker setup to larger tables, fixed the HUD to reposition seat stats and use a different font, and reset all my table management and betting scripts - it's pretty cool.
It's my youngest's 3rd birthday today, so lots of family stuff going on. Maybe I'll bet back to playing and have a better Fall than I did Summer. But I'm still enjoying pokerz whenever I get to play. Hope I can get more time to finish my work on my theorem stuff above. I'll check in to the forums when I get some time later this weekend.
hmmm, if the reason for prop-bet losing is being sick then iou $9.
Monitor with points is cool.
3yo birthday sounds like a recipe for chaos.
Have fun!
Nope - I had missed two by the time I got sick and the third was meh. I've got an idea for September I'll post in the other thread soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
Robb's FTC Theorem (1st draft): When a player bets or raises, he is committed to a rather narrow band of fold-to-continue ratios (FTC's). A player whose FTC is too wide is easily exploitable by raises.
Corollary 1: A player whose FTC is too narrow is playing cards face up.
Corollary 2: Hero avoids unbalanced lines with proper FTC's for his aggression levels.
I guess the most obvious result I could share is something I've been thinking about since Ben said it almost a year ago: "a player who cbet's more than ~70% is probably exploitable." Without equations and such, here's the brief sketch: a player who cbets ~70% REQUIRES that Hero start raising light: I'm looking for boards that shouldn't hit him and leave me at least some kind of draw. When he cbets ~80%, I don't need the draw any more. Ten high will do. And if Hero doesn't adjust, Villain's horribly unbalanced line profits, damn him. So Hero has a certain looseness forced into his game by the unbalanced aggression of others.
The problem for the 80% cbetting villain is that there is a ton of dead money in the pot, and it's pretty cheap (relative to the pot) for me to raise the flop. The dead money and cheap raising price mean that Villain has to fold less than half of his cbets to raises or he's toasty-cooked. And with a decent PFR, say 10% or more, it's almost impossible to continue often enough to sustain an 80% cbet rate. When that PFR gets wider, the situation just deteriorates - for Villain - Hero doesn't mind ;).
I should probably mention when I say dead money, I mean anything already committed, even by the active players. Those chips are worth a stab if there's decent fold equity, and Villain's wide FTC's are the way I'm finding good places to leverage FE.
Another FTC situation is steals. Most TAGG's have really awkward FTC's for their 35% or greater BTN steals. Since the 3b FTC range is pretty wide, it's easy to attack them. I know most folks KNOW this already. I'm just saying that the maths I've done back it up. Where I'm drawing conclusions based on math, the outcomes seem reasonable based on the theory of adjustments we all know. So now I'm using my FTC's at the tables, searching for exploitable villains and lines.
I've been working on a range of playable FTC's for each aggressive action: 3b's, 4b's, squeezes, cbets, steals, resteals and so forth. I'm finding some interesting results.
First, 3bets have this big wide playable range of FTC's, which is probably why about any 3b% between 4 and 10 works OK given that the player is reasonably skilled.
Second, 4b'ing is extremely brittle. You have to have just the right mixture of 4b bluffs, if any. I guess the best way to say it is that the gap between "cards face up" 4betting and "exploitably loose" 4betting is pretty thin. There's no wiggle room.
Third, as the dead money in the pot increases, FTC's are surprisingly narrow, meaning that many TAGG's will have exploitably unbalanced lines.
I don't know if I'll ever post it anywhere but here. The more I think about it, run the numbers and work with it at the tables, the more I realize it's just my limited understanding of ISF's and Renton's theorems. I do have the maths to back it up, but it's pages and pages of spreadsheets with ranges, equity, combos. Pretty boring stuff.
The problem is that I'm not sure I could teach anyone else to "use" my theorem. I'm looking at a half dozen HUD stats, making some estimates based on stats and any actions I've noted, guessing at ranges and then applying my knowledge of FTC's. The cool thing is that it works pretty well. I can tell when I'm in "thin value" situations (if re-bluffs can be called value) and when I'm home free.
Interesting read. I'll admit I'll have to give it another read or two before I feel like I can mention what I want to say but it seems kind of like something I've noticed recently. Just kind of attacking anything but unbalanced strong ranges. If that makes sense. Just kind of knowing you can start bluffing vs. even balanced ranges to unbalance it and then of course vs. unbalanced-yet-heavily-weak ranges.
I think what I am saying doesn't relate too too much with what you are saying but just thought I'd lay it out there. Tbh, I'd love to see some HHs and stuff. I know you gave examples and I appreciate them and understand them but I think as many examples as possible really helps us all out. Even HHs from players other than you.
P.S. The spreadsheet stuff seems far from boring.
After 3 horrendous months, the end of September was a rebirth. I realized that I'm not reading ranges at all accurately - I'm worse than most 10nl droolers right now.
I am practicing range reading. First session, 8 hands, grade is C. But my best play at the tables followed intensive practicing with range reading early this year. So I'm not posting any poker results here for the next little bit. Just number of hands where I did ALL the work. Start with an explicit range preflop and narrow on each street. Decide on a specific number of combos before I look at showdown (using hands I wasn't involved in so there's little chance of me remembering it).
A - 3 combos or less
B+ - 5 combos or less
B - 8 combos or less
C - 10 to 15 combos
D/F - narrowing too much or missing something - showdown hand is out of consideration - worse than 15 combos
I sort of average the grades. I got an A, B+, B and rest C or worse.
But I got an A+ 'cuz I'm practicing ranges again. Trying for 30 - 35 hands worth of practice each week for the next month or so.
This is a fantastic idea for practicing hand reading, and I think I'll do it myself. I find that reading hands/putting villains on a range is by far the weakest point in my game, and its starting to become critical that I do so, if I want to be a solid, consistent winner at 50nl+. Thanks for this Robb, as usual you come through with another amazing post.
/brown nosing :lol:
To filter in HEM, I use VPiP = False and ShowDown = True with FinalPot > 50 BB (I think - I'm at work, so I'm guessing a bit). That gets me hands I didn't participate in that typically have 2 or more streets of betting to help narrow things down.Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
I also use my chunking method for grabbing preflop ranges. I described that method here:
Practicing Ranges
My goal is to use the same method each time I practice so that I can get better and better at EXACT range estimates (knowing the exact number of combos/hands in the estimated range). Each chunk is ~5% of all hands, and I've grouped them according to hands I think play similarly and in groups I can easily work with.
The hope is that several months of practice will lead to estimates like: "180 combos total, he's calling this flop raise with 30 of them, shoving with 20, and folding 130." If the estimates are reasonably accurate, then I'll have a real advantage at the tables.
Not there, yet, by a long shot. Short term, though, I can get reasonably close by cycling through each chunk, dropping "half a chunk" and so forth. Which is tons better than I've been doing, which is not thinking too deeply about ranges at all.
And that, my friends, is the #1 way I've found to really suck at poker. **Bad, Robb - stop that!!**
10 hands for range practice tonight, pretty solid B average. Boy, I'm rusty. While I'm getting the feel again, I'm sooooo sllooooooowwwww.
Oh, well, if I didn't need it, it wouldn't be hard.
Poker life is good. Practiced 8 HH's of range reading. Solid B. I've been working on players with wide preflop stats, so it's hard to give them exact ranges by the end. But I'm getting better. I need to work more on bet sizing and what it means.
Went rock climbing with a bunch of college kids who worked for my Summer Honors program the past few summers. I had a blast and pulled off an undercling, patial lieback move I've never managed before on the crux of a 5.9. I was pretty exposed at the time, so it made me feel great.
Played tonight for a couple of hours, my longest session in almost two months. I lost 3 BI early with decent chances (worst was 60-40 against, best was 55-45). I shoved some draws thin and thought they'd fold the hands they called with. Normally, I go off the rails after that, but I came back and played as well as I have since June. Won 'em back to break even for the night. I did get a couple of nice suckouts to even out the variance overall, but I was happy I didn't tilt.
Maybe had something to do with the climbing. I just love being outdoors, and today was a great day. About 70 degrees, mostly sunny, and low mists over the Smokey Mountains with great views from the top of all the climbs.
um, wat??Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Seriously, good to hear you're getting back into it Robb. You've been very quiet (esp by your standards) for a while now.
Hey there Robb. Sorry, completly missed the essay comp, congrats on winning. Some comments occurred to me, thought I'd mention them here.
You kind of mention this, and hopefully folks can work it out, but your maths at the beginning of how -EV it is to have a wide FTC ratio when stealing ONLY takes into account the times the light 3-bettor in the blinds 3-bets you. Very few even light 3-bettors will 3-bet 100% of the time no matter how wide you're stealing. So you might lose 2BB per hand the times you get 3-bet, but that ignores the 1.5BB per hand you win when you dont. Maths is a bit beyond me atm, but it would be a mistake to make too many adjustments (i.e., stealing less) until you start getting 3bet a LOT.
Point 3 - hurt but dont alert, I pretty much ignore this these days. In reality I just dont find people can adjust well enough to make a difference. More and more I just pound on TAGs in the blinds when I'm in position.
I guess the point is (and again you make this point, just I think I take it further) unless villains are adjusting enough to make a meaningful difference, being exploitable isnt a bad thing. Obviously the higher you get the more villains will be capable of this, but I'd wait until I see the adjustment before allowing for it.
Really good article. A few things I've been blindly stumbling towards that you outline clearly, and a few things I hadnt considered that I found really useful. I got a lot out of it.
Poker life is good, but I haven't had much time lately to blog, or play or comment on others' stuff. I've been playing mostly HU SNG's and reading Colin Moshman's (sp?) Heads Up book.
I've also been wearing my FTR hoodie to work, stylin' in my Essay Winning poker swag.
My poker playing has been erratic, but mostly good, since I've played so infrequently lately.
I'm likin' HU at the cheap stakes - they suck worse than I do.
I've been playing HU lately. Details for the interested: Noobie HU Learning Curve.
Funny story. I have a 2 to 1 chip lead against this LAGG, and I beat him with a sick all-in call. He limps, I have K5o, and the flop is AA2. He cbets and I'm like "What could he possibly have?" So I call. Turn is Q, river is another 2 and the betting goes check turn, bomb river all-in. He shows down T-high, and my K-high takes it. I was about 75% certain I was ahead when I called and was only worried about 2x, but he just goes off on me in the chat box.
"You donkey! You are horrible!! You play so bad - every bet is SO terrible. You suck at poker and should JUST QUIT!!"
We're done early and it's a 4-man $6.40 HU SnG. I have to wait for the other table to finish anyway, so I pull the ol' "I'm new -- just learnin' poker" level. He actually apologizes, says I have a lot to learn and wishes me gl. So I ask for coaching help which he provides by going through each HH in the replayer, telling me his hole cards and explaining how I should bet/play against him/others.
1. He gave some decent advice, but he totally exposed his entire poker mindset in the 5 hands he critiqued with me. Problem is, he could be an FTR grinder. The advice was at that no-longer-a-noobie level typical of our winning 5nl and 10nl regs in the BC. I felt pretty bad for the guy as I totally set him up for rape and pillage action. Buddy list, amiright?
2. Talk about tapping the fish tank. Jeez. If I was a fish, I wouldn't have been worse than this guy for long.
3. If you're wondering, I lied about my hole cards.
So I'm having fun, making a bit of money and learning tons. Position, position, position. Aggression - why do so many of these guys limp their button all the time? I mean, it's a tourney so it's not horrible, but they still are doing it when they're short stacked, say, 12 BB.
I won 4 of 11 4-man $6 SnG's last night for about $75 in BI's and $96 in payouts.
Cash game is on hold right now. I'm going to try generating some positive returns in HU. I'm rolled for (at least) the $11, and the players seem epically readable at $6. So I'm pretty much just trying learn as much as I can as fast as I can so I can justify moving up with results instead of optimism.
Took a 3-game shot at the $11 4-man SnG's, won 1, lost 2, so I'm positive. But I have certainly found HU players who are as good as I am, and some who are better. So it's back the $6 game to learn more pokerz before I take serious shot.
Been thinking about ICM, and (duh) realizing it doesn't apply in HU. Not even in HU MTT's. Should have been obvious, I know. But there's a skill difference that matters.
I searched for ICM and found a thread about "ICM corrected by skill difference" which I can't find again (dammit - I knew I should have book-marked it). But the theory is simple enough: shift some chips from the less skillful to the more skill players before applying the ICM mathematics. Of course, for more skill difference, more chips are shifted.
And this math result feels worthless, but I'm exhausted. So I think I will post it and see if I can start poking holes in it later. If you're still reading, thanks!! Let me know what value this could have - or not have.
So that works for HU. Suppose I play BJaust HU, and let's just suppose he has a 2 to 1 skill advantage. If we played thirty times, he would win 20. So to perform ICM style calculations taking skill difference into account, we could first shift chips from one stack to the other.
In the BJ vs. Robb 2 to 1 skill difference example, we could compare 1500 chip starting stacks. Shift 500 chips from my stack to his, so the 2k vs. 1k chip stacks reflect the portion of the final prize money BJ is expected to win.
So the math is obvious for starting stacks, but what if BJ is evaluating a all-in call with JTs holding a 2 to 1 chip advantage along with a 2 to 1 skill advantage? We can do ICM style analysis if we can develop a formula for shifting chips to have the resulting stacks reflect percentage chance to win.
Of course, there's no real way to decide if it's useful until we do it. The formula should work at the margins: if BJ has 2900 and I have 100, the formula should still work. And vice versa. And in the end, it should lead to useful analysis. So let me offer this idea.
For the 2 to 1 chip advantage, take a fraction of chips from the worse player's stack and add it to the better player's stack. The fraction is
( 2 - 1 ) / ( 2 + 1 ) = 1 / 3
For the start of a match, it works. I have 1500, so we deduct 1500 * 1/3 = 500 and give them to BJ, so we have the 2k vs 1k stacks like we needed. Now, what if BJ has 1800 and I have 1200? Well, just deduct one third of my stack: 1200 * 1/3 = 400, so BJ's expectation can be based on a 2200 to 800 ratio, so he'd be a 5.5 to 1 favorite with only a 3 to 2 advantage in chips. If I had a 2250 vs 750 chip lead, we'd take 1/3 * 2250 = 1500, so BJ would have break-even chances as long he still had 750 chips in his stack. (This also presumes that the blinds are still small enough that BJ doesn't have to revert to push/fold and can exploit his full skill differential.)
So, back the JTs question. If BJ has a 2 to 1 chip lead and a 2 to 1 skill difference, should he call my all-in? Suppose blinds are 25/50. BJ posts the t50 BB, and I push. If BJ folds, he has 1950 and I have 1050. Adjusting for SD, take 1/3 * 1050 = 350, so BJ's equity advantage is 2300 to 700.
Suppose in this situation, I would push Axs, KJs+, KQ, and any pp (just trying to get a halfway decent range and keep things simple). Then BJ stoves it and finds he's got 40% equity against that range. If he goes all-in then 40% of the time he wins the whole match, and 60% of the times he ends up losing t1,000. Now, the stacks are reversed. So the unadjusted equity is 3,000 * .4 + 1,000 *.6 = 1,200 + 600 = 1,800. Shift a third of my chips over to BJ to find his SD-adjusted equity of 2,200.
So BJ should (by this yet-to-be-validate model) fold JTs and play his 2300 to 700 AD-adjusted equity. If he has AJo, his Stove equity would be 48% against the same range, so the EV for calling would be 3,000 * .48 + 1,000 *.52 = 1,440 + 520 = 1,960. Then adjusting for SD would mean taking 1/3 * 1,040 = 348 chips, and shifting them, which would come out almost identical to folding. So calling vs. folding is breakeven for AJo.
Now, I'm not sure that any of this is meaningful, or will lead anywhere. I just wanted to post it so others could critique as they see fit, and so that I could get the ideas down on "paper" so I can work on some endgame scenarios and see if it can be helpful in assessing calling in push/fold scenarios or, likewise, deciding what range to push/fold ourselves.
I do know this - if I have a skill advantage, I need to be much more conservative about getting all the chips in. Coin flips favor those likely to lose.
I gotta admit, I dont know about the maths, but generally speaking you've got the right conclusion, which is that the less skill advantage, the more willing you should be to take small edges, or conversely the more the skill advantage, the less willing you should be to take small edges.
Of course this applies more to deeper stacks. The skill advantage becomes less relevant the shallower the stacks, and the advantage shifts to the player with the better push/fold game, which is to say if your edge is a better knowledge of when to push and when to call pushes, then giving up an edge becomes a bigger mistake because you're negating your own advantage.
Well, one place the maths don't work quite right is that any time you have 50% equity in the hand, this method says call, but you probably shouldn't call an all-in on the first hand unless you're somehow certain your equity advantage > skill difference advantage. Same for early game and mid-game before the stacks get shallow - don't call an all-in for a coin flip and the game when you have a 3 to 2 skill advantage. Wait for a hand that's likely to have his range crushed or have his likely hands dominated.Quote:
Originally Posted by bjsaust
I set up a spreadsheet to get all the formulas working right, and I realized that the "chip switch SD difference" is based effective stacks, not Hero's stack. And I listed every stack size from t100 to t2900. Generally, the maths have us calling with a 40% equity hand when really short, folding when we have a decent sized stack, and calling with good-sized lead (say 2500 to 500). Which makes a good bit of sense.
I've compared the Hero in the BB, SB open-shoves, just to get the setup right. I plan to work on the Hero SB fpr 3xBB, with opp 3b shoveling. With more chips at risk, of course, I'm expecting the "all-in" call recommendations to be more liberal.
When I get some of the maths test-driven for accuracy and run some scenarios, I will post what I find.
Of course, there are some hurdles to overcome:
1. Does Hero really know his skill difference advantage? I would say "yes, to a point." We can always assumed based on history. For example, I've won 57% of my HU $6 matches over 75 or so attempts, so we could safely guess my SD is 55 to 45 against all be the top tier opponents at $6.
2. Can Hero really gauge his equity accurately enough to run these estimates? Yes, since it's the same process as ICM, and yes again, because most of the various all-in configurations like overcard/undercard (A6 vs QT) have well known probabilities. We can generally get a pretty decent idea of opp's shoveling range by seeing a couple of showdowns.
For example, I had been punishing this guy's limps, but I had just flatted a couple as well and saw he liked to limp Axo. About the 4th time I picked up a hand like AT and saw him limp, I raised him 4x. I could tell he was tilting. He thought about it, and I raced him to the middle with my stack when he shoved. Sure enough, he turns up A4o and my AT holds up. Game, set and match.
I'll post something with details in a few days, and see if y'all think it makes any sense.
I started typing this outside in our front yard, sitting on a bench watching the kids play. I took the leaf blower out this afternoon and made a huge pile (which is easy on our 1 acre fully wooded lot) about a meter tall and 3 meters in diameter. So my kids were diving in, burying each other and having leaf fights. I was stting on our garden bench, enjoying being outside in GA (barefoot!!) in mid-November, wearing shorts and a tee, with a view of the mountains now that some of the leaves are off the trees, and generally enjoying an amazing autumn day.
The only thing that could have made it better is playing poker. I had to come in and start dinner, so it wasn't the best time to fire up a HU tourney. (Sorry, kids, that you're hungry. Daddy needs to concentrate on this match. Just go play and I'll make something when I'm done.)
HU pokerz are going well. I didn't really think of it as building the bankroll, just a way to learn some more about the game. But it's doing both.
Stars is SERIOUSLY weaker competition for the same stakes of HU matches. Daven transferred $75 over there for me from FTP. I was running like 30% ROI in HU at Tilt. I'm more like 90% at Stars. That will probably deteriorate a bit over time, but there's a significantly fishier pool of HU players at Stars.
I've played $11 HU at Tilt, but I'm not rolled for that yet on Stars. Actually, I don't really know any HU BR guidelines except that $90 on Stars probably wasn't enough for $6 HU SnG's. I didn't worry about it since it wasn't my whole roll, but I'm going to wait until I have 25 - 30 BI's for the $11 game before I start moving up at Stars. Can't wait to play their $11 games. Hope they're more of the same.
To those of you who grind cash on Stars - wow. Full Tilt's software is so much faster and more responsive. I only play one match at a time on Tilt, but the games move so much slower on Stars that I'm playing two at a time. It gets a bit hectic when I'm at the end of two matches simultaneously against opp's with different playing styles.
I'm up nearly double my original stake of $90 after 17 4-man HU SnG's (winner takes all $24, if you're not familiar with the payoffs). Another hundred or so and I'll tell you what I think of the $11 games.
niceQuote:
Originally Posted by Robb
i'm still waiting for mine to turn up (dictionary entries) = downside of being on the other side of the world I guess...
HU sng, interesting change!
I hope to play HU cash eventually, but Spenda says 50+ BI because of the variance, and the lowest limit for HU cash is 50nl.Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
But we'll see...
I like learning new stuff, and I think the HU experience will help my 6-max when I return to it. I don't have time to split my attention, but I will have to play some 6-max to grind my Full Tilt holiday bonus. One HU SnG at a time is killing my rakeback!! About 10 FTP's per day right now - lulz.
So I spent 6 weeks learning HU SnG's and making a little bit - one at a time, I'm definitely a winning player, but it would take until 2055 to grind up any serious roll. I'm competitive at the $11 HU SnG's, but not dominant. I will probably continue to play them off and on over the next few months, but I'm back to my 6m game, grinding my Christmas bonus, my last Iron Man bonus which will turn into a year-end bonus.
I took spenda's and others advice in Kmind's thread (think it was in the short handed forum). They said the 18/15 TAGG just wasn't going to win much at 50nl and beyond. They suggested opening up. I went down to 10nl for a few thousand hands and began playing a laggier 30/25 style, and now I'm at 25nl doing the same.
I can see how it works, now. Of course, folks are going to attack you and play back, but you make a lot stealing small pots so you can let ease out of pots where you have nothing. And, of course, hitting trip 9's when you open 97s from MP with two nits on your left really crosses them up when they call with AQ and the flop is Q99.
For two years, I've been focused on playing a tight TAGG style. This style gets me into more big pot situations with big hands and big draws. The TAGG's play back at me more, and I get to play more pots with the fish.
I'll probably have to tighten up as I move on up to 50nl or 100nl again, but I'll still be at something like 25/20 when I do with some good experience playing those wide, weak ranges.
Oh, yeah, I haven't been around FTR much 'cuz work has been CRAZY. But it's all good. Hope ya'll have been doing well the past few months.
fmpQuote:
Originally Posted by Robb
I've played 9k hands at 50nl w/ 32/25/6 VPiP/PFR/3b. Winrate is 2.5 ptBB/100, EV winrate is double that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Still true. Won't change much next few months, but I'm back to grinding which means I'll be back posting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
Some goals for next 3-4 months (year-long goals aren't realistic in my life or my poker right now):
1. Grind $250 worth of Iron Man bonuses
2. Get nicely rolled for 100nl
3. Try new laggy style at 100nl for 10k hands or so, re-eval, tweak game and try to stabilize at 100nl for long run
4. DON'T PLAY TOO MANY TABLES YOU MORON
5. Grind to Silver level in FTP's Iron Man each month, which is basically 1k hands of 50nl 15 days in the month
I think all of that is do-able provided I don't tilt/spew. I've finally realized that most of the downswings in my poker career have been double- or triple-severe because I follow up bad poker luck with a hyperaggressive/station can't-fold tilt/spew/donk asswipe play. My game goes completely off the rails for 15 or 20 hands, or sometimes 100 hands, and I turn a 1.5 BI downswing into 5 BI's down 'cuz of tilt.
I've really been working hard on that, keeping my game ABC basic right after bad beats, probably folding too much in marginal spots. But folding is a small mistake in marginal pots, and I've proven I'm very capable of spewing. So I am working on relaxing, trying out the fold button and thinking very clearly about each decision when the bad beats cluster on me. And taking breaks immediately after any bad play follows a bad beat. Just sit out and steam a minute, then sit right back down and play solid. Two minutes fixes it, usually.
I'm just testing to see if the forum codes for LaTex work at FTR.
[latex] \frac{x^2}{3x+4} [/latex]
Guess not...
Poker life has been good but frustrating. While I've not stacked off like I would have in the past, I've had 6k hands of coolers and bad beats, just running like dog poop. I'm down 2.5 ptBB/100 over that stretch, with a 4.2 ptBB (positive) EV.
Tonight, it started just the same, but then I hit a mini-heater and picked up a couple BI's. I've just gotta convince myself to keep fold, fold, folding. It will turn around eventually. No reason to compound (bad) poker luck by spewing.
Sometimes they really do have it 5 times in row when they 4b your light 3b's. Sometimes they really do have 3 times in a row when they make a big turn raise. Take your read, make your laydown, wait for things to look better.
I withdrew $300 because I was nearing the point would I "have" to play 100nl. I've been working pretty hard on my game and improving a lot at 50nl, but I don't feel quite ready for 100nl. So I made a defensive withdrawal to keep my bankroll marginal enough that I wouldn't be tempted to take a shot. I still have lessons to learn here.
Finished clearing an Iron Man bonus, and I get to turn in Iron Man medals for a $100 bonus 1-Feb. At the end of February, if I don't spew off my roll between now and then, I'll probably be taking my game back to 100nl.
Sort of the quintessential example of implied odds:
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Full Tilt
Hero ($30)
BB ($52.65)
UTG ($53.50)
UTG+1 ($51.85)
CO ($40.70)
BTN ($51)
Dealt to Hero 4:spade: 6:spade:
fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, fold, Hero calls $1.25, fold
FLOP ($5) J:club: 4:heart: 7:spade:
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks
TURN ($5) J:club: 4:heart: 7:spade: 8:spade:
Hero bets $2.50, UTG+1 calls $2.50, CO folds
RIVER ($10) J:club: 4:heart: 7:spade: 8:spade: 5:spade:
Hero bets $3.75, UTG+1 raises to $47.85 (AI), Hero calls $22.25 (AI)
UTG+1 shows A:spade: 9:spade:
(Pre 65%, Flop 27.2%, Turn 34.1%)
Hero shows 4:spade: 6:spade:
(Pre 35%, Flop 72.8%, Turn 65.9%)
Hero wins $59
lol pwn tanmts
wondering if LaTex code works:
[tex]\int \frac{x^2}{7}dx[\tex]
Was wondering where you were....... Can we forget LaTex and remember Poker, imo.Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
No kidding. That was a misclick.Quote:
Originally Posted by PlayToWin
I'm back to pokerz after nearly 5 months off. Played a bit last night at 2nl, 5nl 6m, then 10nl. God, I really suck at poker.
The reason I left poker was due to Benign Positional Paroxysmal Vertigo. This link to BPPV explains things pretty well. My vertigo is triggered by cold / allergy sinus congestion, which changes the viscosity of the inner ear fluid.
The condition, when I have it, is sheer torture and pretty debilitating. I experienced it for the first time right after Christmas.
On the other hand, I have had a great semester at work, with a couple of scholarly publications that will help with next year's early promotion hearing (full professor). I was also teaching an overload to help offset the salary loss due to furloughs.
Needless to say, with a busier-than-usual semester at work, and missing nearly two weeks due to vertigo plus various time lately with visits to ENT's and audiologists, I have gotten way behind. I didn't have much time for poker, so I withdrew a bit and took a break.
In January, I figured I would be back to pokerz in 4 weeks max, not 4 months. But here I am.
I will be posting some and trying to get back into the groove. I dunno what this blog will be like for the next few weeks. I will probably reread what I've posted in here and update since all my xs.to pics are f***d up.
But I am a total noobie again for a few days, at least. So it should be interesting.
Flame away, haters!! Let me know what's up around FTR and your lives lately.
wb Robb, sorry to hear about your condition. Its only just over 12 months since i took my first tentative steps at cash using your noobies guide. Getting settled in at 25nl now.
Glad to know you're doing well. Do you play on Full Tilt? If so, we may meet up at the 25nl 6m tables in a few weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_MM
The vertigo was hateful. I couldn't lie down. Whenever I did, nausea-inducing dizziness set in. So I had to sleep in chair sitting up. Whenever my head fell over to the side, I would wake up.
So the worst part of vertigo was severe sleep deprivation. And when it was really bad, I couldn't drive myself anywhere for a few days. Definitely no state to play pokerz in. :D
Fortunately, I only teach on MWF's, so I was able to "miss" a day here and there and not cancel too many classes.
Keep on grindin', and I will be back with y'all soon!!
Robb I to have been away from poker for quite sometime although I have not yet reached the level at which you have. I have to say when I first found FTR you were really one of the ones who inspired me. I enjoyed reading your post etc. So welcome back and GL with both poker and your condition.
Thanks, Harley. I missed FTR while I was away. A bunch of the regs here are really cool folks to discuss things with.Quote:
Originally Posted by HarleyGuy13
Are you back to pokerz, yet? Or just FTR?
Robbbbbbbb welcome back! Sorry to hear about your condition. Does you being back mean its getting better or have you found a way to treat it?
I'm dabbling in HU sngs (for like the 3rd time) and I'm playing the 6.25s turbos on stars. I'm running pretty hot atm, but I'm really liking my play as well. I bought Moshman's HU SNG book, and I think its a really good starting point for someone newer to them like you suggested a while back. Any plans on playing these again?
Anyways, welcome back again, glad to have another familiar face around again. :)
Found a way to treat it and minimize its effects. Since it's sinus stuffiness that triggers it, taking a daily dose of Claritin during allergy season is one way to avoid it. There are some therapy options that "fix" the problem, but only for the short term. But there's no solid definition of what "short term" will be. They can't tell me if the vertigo will return every month or if it will be 10 years of relief before I need the therapy/treatment again.Quote:
Originally Posted by dranger7070
I may play some HU SnG's again. If I do, it will be on stars. I've experimented with FR and 6m at the 10nl, and I'm feeling pretty good atm. Just need a while to grind to get back to 25nl and above. I will probably dabble in some different things since different aspects of playing reinforce different skills that I used to take for granted but now find myself struggling to apply at the tables.
For example, I struggle to 4-table now w/ FR 10nl tables, when 5 or 6 6m tables used to be no problem. So single-tabling some HU will probably be one of the things I do to get my hand-reading skills back.
Just trying to take it easy and make no real specific goals for myself except to relearn pokerz.
Low key efforts have never been my speciality, but if we're going to succeed in the long term at pokerz, we non-pro-aspiring folks have to find ways to fit poker in around the other chores and duties we have. So I'm still working to find balance (no pun intended).
dude, sounds rough on the health front. Hope you get it well sorted somehow
a hippie alternative to claratin is taking a herbal miracle pill, dunno if you can get the particular brand state-side though? anyway: Nature's Own - Triple strength garlic+C, horseradish, fenugreek & marshmallow.Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
nice work on the early prof interview as well, impressive stuff. Anyone would think you were hard working and/or half decent at your job ;)
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you asked for updates!
re poker. Meh. 2010 started out well enough. Had my best week profit wise (about $3k), was up quite a bit (around $9k) early on. Then swings and tilt and madness... anyway, i've been bouncing around in stakes and games quite a bit of late - in preparation for a sick-sick-sick May... long term news is that poker has been my sole source of income for 11 months and 3 1/2 weeks now, and i've saved money over that time. Plus moving to europe, cruising around there some, a couple of weeks in malaysia, moving back to nz, buying a few cool toys back in nz, etc...
re life. I'm 33 now! climbing loads again, i've joined the local co-op bouldering gym which means i can go along anytime. Getting stronger. And riding bikes loads. Getting fitter. Turbine plan didn't work cos i sucked at electricity, back to the drawing board.
Thanks for the update, Daven, sounds like life is still pretty decent for you, hope the poker gods smile at your tables soon.
Since you mentioned it, I was presenting with my colleague Dianna at a conference in San Diego (that's 3 trips to the West Coast for this East Coast, small town, small school prof in one semester), and a journal editor asked us to submit a project we worked on in 2008 for her journal. I had dropped it, since I didn't have time, but this will be easy peer-reviewed publication. She asked for me to send it directly to her, and bypass the normal online submission process, which should speed things up. So, yeah, the job/career thing is just fine.
Update on pokerz: I played some HU SnG's of the 4-man winner-take-all variety, and won $15. Wheeeee!! I also played a round of 8 DON's at the dollar BI level, winning 7 of 8 for a massive $1.45 per hour earn rate.
I know my poker retraining may seem oddly eclectic, and it obviously disregards spoony's well-known "stick to one game until mastery" theory of learning pokerz, but I really am enjoying just relearning tons of stuff. Different games require different poker skills, but reading opponents sets the winners apart from the losers. And you learn that at any game, of any variety, at any stakes.
Of everything I've tried, I REALLY like the new 250 bb deep-stack tables on Starz. Problem is, I only have $80 over there, so I'm not rolled for them. I've played a few tables, just one or two at a time, to see how soft they are. Since the cheapest seats are at the 10nl tables, I need to double my roll before I'm ready to play there with any serious intent.
theres an awful lot of 25nl players dropping down to the 10nl 250bb tables and an awful lot of 10 nl players moving up to the 25nl 20bb tables from what i've seen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Robb
played for a coupla tonight
6m 5nl for warmup, up 2 BI in 400 hands
plo h/l rebuy tourney, where I blew $14 and finished ootm on a really good draw in a 4-way pot - oh well
$6.40 HU tourney w/ 4 players, which I won
up about $12 overall for the night
pretty good
i like pokerz, and i hope to be back as a reg by the end of the month
best to all y'all who might still check this thread
oh, yeah, and i'm 4-tabling and sometimes dropping back to fewer tables
there's this idea in my head i'd like to test that one quality hour of 2-tabling with known feesh to your right is better than 10 hours of grinding 8+ tables
so far so good
Welcome back sir! Good to see you posting again. :D