MMM just has lots of tone stuff going on where I picture a wolf writing it...maybe ill highlight some of my 3rd review of his posts sells me enough
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MMM just has lots of tone stuff going on where I picture a wolf writing it...maybe ill highlight some of my 3rd review of his posts sells me enough
Ong, I've gone about 10 straight long games without being lynched and mostly without even being a wagon, probably ~300 different players in those games, I think it is mostly a you problem.
I don't see Rascal as particularly wolfy, but I could be wrong. I still think it's MMM, who has done little to zero solving, and JKDS.
rescind all
Lynch MMM
yep Gabe, that first post by MMM was an abomination.
lynch JKDS
MMM-JKDS-Rascal works
but really MMM-JKDS-reassess.
I have considered it, which is why I'm not fixated on the idea that it's baudib. He's prime suspect, but I've acknowledged several times that I might be wrong and I suck at reading baudib. It's not like I'm blind to my own failings. That said, if I think baudib is a wolf, I will say so, and say why. It's not like I'm reaching, imo. He's either wolf, or wolfy villager. I don't know why he has such a problem with me thinking he's a wolf. It's fucking werewolf. Someone's a wolf.
Ok here's two super town mojo posts...
This feels particularly honest. I'm a little tired of baudib's tone when he gets fingers waved at him. It's like he feels insulted by the idea he's wolfy, and responds in kind. mojo is either in the same frame of mind here as me, or is brilliantly putting his villager head on.
Direct and assertive. Straight up honest.Quote:
I got news: You're wrong about that.
mojo is a villager.
nah
I like that drew has backed off mojo thanks to my position on him. I mean if drew is a wolf, he doesn't need to do that. There's still plenty of action on him, he remains vulnerable despite my efforts. drew seems to be open to the idea that I'm right, which indicates to me that he's not identified mojo as mislynch bait.
I find it incredibly interesting the baudib wagon shifting to MMM, which is mainly pushed by gator and gabe imo.
I'm pretending either gabe or gator as wolf doing this. Why? It doesn't make a lot of sense other than because it doesn't make a lot of sense, which may provide village cred, I dunno.
Maybe they think MMM is stronger in late game as a villager.
It's villagery nonetheless.
However, i'm on ongs side when he states MMM is village. It may be a couple days before this stande changes, unless something redic happens but I don't see that with one wolf remaining.
Due to my appreciation of gabe and gators game, I'd strongly consider changing my vote from baudib to someone else but that someone else would be lilrascal.
rescind baudib
lynch lilrascal
Hmm.
There's 8 players, and mojo points out that baudib is voting for half of them. He then says this means there's probably a wolf... probably implies greater than 50%, which in turn implies that mojo is thinking that from baudib's pov, there's 7 unknown because baudib knows he's a villager... which in turn implies that mojo knows baudib is a villager.
Can this come from a villager? Where's the "if you're a villager" pretext?Quote:
Statistically speaking, your approach prob has a wolf in it...
I don't think I like this.
Nah if I flip a coin, it's not probably going to be heads.
I think that from a villager's pov, the "if you're a villager" thinking when applying the idea that baudib is probably voting for a wolf is critical. The villager doesn't know if baudib is probably voting for a wolf, because baudib might be a wolf.
Furthermore, and this might be even better, if mojo is a villager, then he wouldn't consider that baudib is probably voting a villager, because mojo's self awareness means he can take himself out of the pool. Mojo now sees 3 from 7, so he would assume baudib is probably NOT voting for a wolf.
Mojo can only mean from baudib's pov, and the lack of "if you're a villager" I think betrays mojo's state of mind. I think mojo knows baudib is a villager.
Sigh.
*wolfQuote:
then he wouldn't consider that baudib is probably voting a villager
Giving you a pass? You earned my respect as a V with your vote on Luco.
Prior to that I only defended your rep, and I saw the error in that within a few posts.
My reason for clearing you is well delineated. I have expounded on the fact that I think you bussing Luco there is an extremely unlikely event, and that clears you, from my POV.
But then, you said:
About my (I thought well founded) reason for doubting that you would bus Luco in that spot.
Yeah I don't think mojo actually thinks this, and it's basically a poor attempt to swat away a slip. I mean the dictionary definition of probably is "almost certainly", but as a poker player I accept >50%.
But not 50%. And I don't think mojo thinks this either. I think mojo is caught.
lolwat? *sigh*
gabe's attack on me is ridiculous and I'm trying to make sense of why he would attack me over explaining why I don't think he would bus Luco. It's not like I left a one-liner and pretended that gabe was lock-vil. I gave my background and conclusions.
Whatever. I'm V. I'm admittedly less interested in this game than prior games.
The village core is well established, and if you guys keep your paranoia out of it, and remember how and why your early reads were formed, then the final W doesn't stand a chance.
Gabe's flip on me is weird. At least he's digging.
Ong's flipping is less weird; I still think ong is genuine.
***
There's over 6 hours left, and I'll be in and out until EOD.
I don't think mmm's 'probable' statement is necessarily role indicative of wolf.
Thing is, that's all I dislike about mojo, and I think I dislike more that he's a wagon. I mean it's not like anyone else spotted that "slip". He's been getting pushed when he's in my opinion looked like a villager. And his dismissal there seems genuine. I don't think mojo would have that tone with me as wolf. I think he'd be more defensive, and possibly even turn on me. He seems to have given up caring, and if he was a wolf, I think he just howl and be done with it once he lost me.
He's coming across as genuine, in his tone. That implies villager in the case of mojo, in my opinion. I wouldn't rely on that for the likes of JKDS, but for mojo, I think his villager honesty tends to shine through.
whatever. let's lynch JKDS.
I'm not as committed to my villa mmm read as I am with others. I just remember that mmm usually shines like an obvious villager by this point...and he's not there. He says he's less interested this game, but he still seems like he's interested.
you don't get any credit if he flips W
Ya, I read the reasoning that was inside the post. Thanks for repeating it.
Anything else to say?
you look pretty wolfy from that sequence.
like, if you nailed 2 wolves in a list of 4 (3) it wouldn't actually be that sick.
you don't give any real reason to vote Luco there either. Like why Luco and not Rascal?
also, your post about MMM there is a lot of sideways talking.
you can die.
From what I can tell Gabe actually thought Luco's lone post was wolfy, and also was consistent in wanting to push people who gave slank cover (Rascal). So his voting pattern is perfectly reasonable and makes sense.
JKDS tossing in Luco there doesn't.
rescind MMM
Sounds like a ton of BS to me.
Know why?
Cuz GABE was also in my list of three. Gabe who hadnt even posted yet. Luco at least posted once.
So you see my list, and immediately think "NO WAY, NO CREDIT FOR LUCO"....but you dont say the same thing about gabe, you dont even think about gabe, and the reasoning applies even better to gabe.
You had luco on the brain baudib. Hes your wolf bro
no
u
GG Baud
I read that as baudib saying luco was rand because luco said that luco would not post much in the beginning
Only wolfy part I see is that if whoever says luco has a pure random chance of being a wolf must be wrong because whoever says that knows their own role
Also I want to say that I am not ruling BID out. I feel great about ong and I'm willing to work with some of you
Ya, and that parts fine. The problem is he didnt say the same thing about you, when I also voted for you in the same exact post. You hadnt even posted yet, but he makes a point of bringing luco up. Why'd he "forget" you, but remember luco? Its cuz luco means something to him while you dont.
baudib and jkds im sitting on a plane thinking about what you're both saying
Unlike rascal I'm paying for wifi
Keep digging yourself a bigger hole.
I mean, you can guess what im gonna post next right?
Ong's vote for luco is fine, because he's voting for everyone. Mine is fishy...because...
Oh wait, looks like I voted for everyone than narrowed it down...leaving on gator, and two players with a post between em. SUPER FISHY
Its so fishy that I kept votes on Luco who I knew nothing about...but its totally legit that I kept a vote on gabe who I also knew nothing about.
lynch me, JKDS, MMM in any order and it's probably a village win.
if the last wolf is not in us 3 then we probably lose but that's the price you pay for lynching me.
I'd think about Drew pretty strongly at F3.
Know why baudib brought up luco? Because luco is his partner, and sometimes people FUCK UP when they try and post all stream of conscience-like.
Throw in the post on page 3 where Baudib says "lynch me guys, im a burden" and "dont lynch me, you'll regret it" and you have 2 solid wolf tells in addition to a blatant favoring of a wolf. EZ GAME
GAbe is not the same as Luco, the equivalent for Luco is Rascal.
Gabe simply hadn't posted.
Rascal and Luco both gave excuses.
baudib rereading the thread, looking at posts in context, asking good questions... making me rethink my presumptions.
rescind baudib
If I presume baudib as V, then my remaining suspects are JKDS and lilrascal. Frankly, rascal is looking more V than JKDS.
JKDS 177
@JKDS: If you want credit for being on the Luco lynch, why lynch gabe, who was on the Luco lynch?
I.e. what was the difference between his 'eagerness' and yours?
I'm interested, but less so than par for me.
Nevertheless, this kind of soft push is wolfy as sin.
Like Gabe voted for Rascal and Luco
Gator voted for MMM and Luco, who he had as a team
JKDS took a random list of 4 people and said, hey it'd be so sick if I had both wolves there. except it's not and it wasn't and he doesn't deserve any credit for making random lists that would be a lot easier with perfect knowledge.
People also fuck up because in general.... Guess what.... people fuck up. It's the wolves who try to post carefully, not the wolves. I'm open to listening to you but "baudib made an error mistake" does not imply wolfiness. I make plenty of history mistakes when I'm a villager (I made one this game kinda when I didnt realize gator should have village credit for his luco vote). I make them as a wolf when I'm not trying too hard (I guess when I'm not invested in the game too much this happens)
Guys I would never say "hehe" as a wolf. Maybe I'll get a chance next game though...
I thought everyone's votes in the first period were more or less throwing darts at a board, I acknowledged that I didn't even like my own votes that much.
That JKDS vote on Luco just stuck out as weird, and still does.
I dont want credit. This isnt about proving my villagerness, its about proving baudib's wolfiness. No one can prove theyre a villager, and if you've been watching my playstyle throughout the past year, you know i've given up on that for a long time.
The issue is that my vote on luco is fishy, yet on gabe it isnt. Baudib had nothing to say to that, until gabe posted "hrm hrm, but excuses are different than nonapperances" to which baudib parroted right away.
seriously, me, JKDS, MMM in any order should win this ~90% of the time.
JKDS has mostly everyone else at 100% villager so he should go along with this.
This is great stuff right here.
baudib never explained why he feels the game is town sided.
People do make mistakes, but when mistakes happen, you man up and say "whoops, you're right, doesnt make much sense". You dont do what baudib is doing and make a ton of excuses for how his read possibly makes any sense...with each one having more holes than the last.
Didn't you have a village read on rascal?
He posted how hes not gonna do something because "it seems too wolfy". In my experience, wolves avoid the fuck out of phrases like this. Especially right off the bat when they have nothing to gain. His next post is game solvey, and all three posts sounded like rascal.
whatever
JKDS could just be a villager with AIDS, MMM is probably a wolf with AIDS
lynch MMM
Me and rascal are racing to be "most scapegoaty" at this point in the game.
I guess I see where gabe is coming from, if his memory of my style of play only extends back one or two games. I really don't know what his gripe is that is enough to attract a vote on me and no one else. If nothing else happens, this is an important motivation that needs to be discovered.
@gabe: What's up with that?
But lilrascal's vote on me seems little more than revenge for my vote on him.
@lilrascal: What's up with that?
rescind lilrascal
lynch baudib
lilrascal and JKDS are my other picks for remaining W.
I will leave out any thoughts on gator, since I was reading him as V-ish, and he's actually got fewer posts than lilrascal at this point. Besides, I don't know how you guys read him (or deal with the fact that you can't) anyway.
There is no wolf in { BID, gabe, ong }.
@Ong: Does it strike you as important that baudib was looking all kinds of wolfy until he got votes? Then his nose goes to the grind and he's all, "Village Spirit, Go Go Go!"
There's no justification for any votes on me but glgl.
anyone have any idea what the VC is?
After I flip, this post has all the hallmarks of a wolfy wolf hiding a wolfy vote in a wolfy post.
rescinding on rascal for no real reason when he's still your wolf lean.
calling JKDS wolfy without any reasoning
doesn't give a reason for voting me, in fact says I am going nose to the grind and all Go village. that's a good reason MMM.
LOL if you're a villager.
@ong: game is imba toward V because
It a "vanilla" game, it's 9 players, 7/2 with no specials.
In this game, it's the same, except that there are fewer nights.
Consider that after the Luco lynch, there was no night phase and no nom. This is essentially skipping N1.
In effect, all odd-numbered nights are skipped.
Without some special role for the wolves, their killing power has been cut in half.
nope
MMM is close to downright sabotaging if he's a villager.
My vote is off rascal because it was putting him w/ more votes than baudib, and I think baudib is all kinds of bad.
I think this heightened involvement only came after baudib was getting votes and that he was all over the place in early game.
His vote was not on Luco.
He's flipping back and forth on me as the vote count suits him.
IF I'm wrong about baudib, and I know he's wrong about me, then the only thing he can have right is his read on JKDS.
I think bussing on Luco is well within JKDS playbook.
It's on my radar that JKDS is a wolf.
@gabe: What is your case on me that is overwhelming your case on anyone else?
Vote Count (AFAIK)
player || is voting for
---------------------
baudib || JKDS, MMM
BID || lilrascal
gabe || MMM
gator || lilrascal
JKDS || baudib, lilrascal
lilrascal || MMM
MMM || baudib
ong || (no vote)
Totals:
baudib - 2
JKDS - 1
lilrascal - 3
MMM - 3
BID - 0
gabe - 0
Gator - 0
Ong - 0
I did a quick read on Rascal and he seems totally rand. I doubt he wins this game as a wolf though.
So yeah this is your POE
Baudib
MMM
JKDS
Rascal
If there's a deep wolf glgl
I think BID is really unlikely to be a wolf, he would have made some horrendous post by now. he is being pretty quiet though
Ong is probably a villager most of the time
Gator and Gabe feel like villagers
This group is mostly self-resolving anyway.
Your hysteria is not well founded. I have mentioned JKDS many times, mostly by POE.
Village:
BID
gabe
ong
On Luco
gabe, gator, JKDS, ong
(that list is alphabetical, as are all my lists of player names)
Who's left?
baudib, lilrascal
What do I have clearing JKDS besides his vote on Luco? Not much.
What do I have to clear gator? Equally not much.
MMM
you're not getting Gator mislynched this game IMO
glgl
@baudib: what about gabe and gator feels like villagers?