Polygamist Werewolf

I figured he took wuf out first because wuf had voted for rilla, was obviously not rilla's buddy, and was thus an attempt by rilla to keep the wolves guessing.

Which has me thinking he's more likely a villager. But a wolf could think about this when he naturally removes his buddy first, so it's not something I'm gonna hold onto all game.

i'm ready for everyone to out their partner...

i dont see the point in bolding before the partners are revealed. if there was no partner considerations, i like voting for wuf. SMF being on him gives us the most wolf kill equity compared to anyone else

I don't think we should out our buddies until tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I don't think we should out our buddies until tomorrow.

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why? we all have our suspicions about different players. i think doing wolf calculus helps us a ton. its so important to have the most info every lynch because the right decision can win us the game TODAY. i dont see how it gives the wolves any advantage but i havent thought about it too much

i strongly think we should out today. knowing the pairs might give us a slam dunk lynch. we arent scared of the wolves gaining anything from it. the burden is on us to just vote for a wolf. who cares what the wolves know

I like a D1 outing of partners though later in IRL time.

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Originally Posted by gabe

why? we all have our suspicions about different players. i think doing wolf calculus helps us a ton. its so important to have the most info every lynch because the right decision can win us the game TODAY. i dont see how it gives the wolves any advantage but i havent thought about it too much

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I like you more after this post.

I agree with Gabe

Boog why should we wait till later?

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Originally Posted by aubreymcfate

I agree with Gabe

Boog why should we wait till later?

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More room for wolves to make a mistake before outing.

I feel like tomorrow will be more fruitful if we are looking back at today's wagons in the knowledge that everyone did not know who the pairs were. People will have developed reads based on the wagons, the lynch, the flip, and then might be forced into reassessing when the cards are flipped. I feel like there might be something to gain from that, and don't really see what's to gain by outing today.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I feel like tomorrow will be more fruitful if we are looking back at today's wagons in the knowledge that everyone did not know who the pairs were. People will have developed reads based on the wagons, the lynch, the flip, and then might be forced into reassessing when the cards are flipped. I feel like there might be something to gain from that, and don't really see what's to gain by outing today.

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I like outing on D1 (but later IRL) for the above reasons.

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Originally Posted by BooG690

I like outing on D1 (but later IRL) for the above reasons.

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But people reads are tainted pre flip. It's better after some initial discussion tomorrow, imo.

But, I'll go with the flow. I'm not being stubborn here, just expressin my opinion.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

But people reads are tainted pre flip. It's better after some initial discussion tomorrow, imo.

But, I'll go with the flow. I'm not being stubborn here, just expressin my opinion.

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It's more about us only having one mislynch to give (I'm not sure I used that vocabulary correctly here). I think we should fit in the outing before our only mislynch to give.

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

Yeah, I realized I was confusing bussing with jumping on a train. My bad.

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No worries.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

{Wufwugy BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla Hoopy Boog Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{BID Lilrascal Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla= Hoopy Boog Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{BID Keith Gabe Ongbonga Rilla Hoopy Boog Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{BID Keith Ongbonga Rilla Hoopy Boog Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{BID Keith Rilla Hoopy Boog Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{BID Keith Hoopy Boog Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{BID Keith Boog Supermonkeyface aubrey Gator}
{BID Keith Boog Supermonkeyface Gator}
{BID Keith Boog Supermonkeyface}


prob

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Well that's quite a first post, what it means for rilla's alignment I don't know.

Just seen his new custom title, much lulz.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I feel like tomorrow will be more fruitful if we are looking back at today's wagons in the knowledge that everyone did not know who the pairs were. People will have developed reads based on the wagons, the lynch, the flip, and then might be forced into reassessing when the cards are flipped. I feel like there might be something to gain from that, and don't really see what's to gain by outing today.

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we should give ourselves the best possible chance on both lynches

the only reason for not trying to maximize tonight's lynch (which everyone outing obviously does, because it gives us more info) is if you were sure we could vote a lock wolf tomorrow, based on the edge you think we would gain by not outing today

I think we should out partners now, there's been enough discussion.

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Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I always pronounced boog as "bee-u-guh"

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

htf do you get beeuguh from booj

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:heart:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

But, I'll go with the flow. I'm not being stubborn here, just expressin my opinion.

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fwiw im trying to think of a reason to not out but i dont see the edge. you are right that tomorrow will be more fruitful. we will, on average, have a better day if the Outing did not come until then. but EV wise we should give ourselves a chance to end the game today

say we were deciding between rilla (which we think is 50% to show wolf) or wuf (40%). but then we see that rilla's partner is aubrey(10%) but wuf's partner is gator (33%). we gain alot of equity by not choosing the highest possible wolf % from a single wolf

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Originally Posted by gabe

we should give ourselves the best possible chance on both lynches

the only reason for not trying to maximize tonight's lynch (which everyone outing obviously does, because it gives us more info) is if you were sure we could vote a lock wolf tomorrow, based on the edge you think we would gain by not outing today

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I wouldn't say lock, but I feel like we have a better chance tomorrow if there is a tomorrow. Our chances today aren't improved that much by outing, I don't think anyway. We already know one pairing, and it's immediately clouded my judgement on both of them. I had found tiny, individual reasons for them to be wolves, and bang, they're a pair and I can't make any more reads based on them as individuals. It's very easy now for me to vote for either drew or monkey, and this is based on crappy d1 logic. There's every chance I'm wrong, I mean I'm just poking around. I don't need to know who the pairs are yet, I don't really want to either.

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

if this was a game of logic, keith rascal and bid would be wolves

the last thing my rilla bold is is wolfy. the first thing you guys are for not seeing why it's not wolfy is wolfy.

ive got all three of rilla bid rascal wolves at like 10%. pretty damn high for all three imo

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Wuf can you explain this post. If you have rilla at 10% wolf and "pretty damn high" at that ,and if the the last thing you bolding him is wolfy thereby implying that you are claiming that you are doing it as a villager . Why would a villager bold someone they think is pretty solidly a villager. This makes no sense.

Lynch wuf

Here's one reason why we shouldn't out today... if the wolves know who all the pairs are, then it's easier for them to pick their targets. Right now, it's hard for them to know who to swing for, because if they go too strong against one person, and give too much v cred to another, only to find they're a pair, they find themselves in an awkward spot.

By outing today, we make life less awkward for the wolves. For what? To make "informed" decision? I feel like I can do that already with monkey/drew.

This is why I don't like boog, fwiw. He seems to have targets but no village reads. He's keeping options open while he's relatively uninformed, that's what it feels like to me.

I don't get a good feeling from keith, it must be said.

There is another reason why we shouldn't out today, but if I say what that is, it kinda negates the advantage we get from it. And by kinda, I mean totally.

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Originally Posted by BooG690

FWIW, you took quite the while to formulate that argument. I reckon den involvement. I'm not hating you and Gabe on a wolf team here.

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wolves rarely do this and you should know that.

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Originally Posted by BooG690

More room for wolves to make a mistake before outing.

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I agree here. Where villagers are protecting one player wolves are protecting three. This may make it harder for them to align in two's with more posting that happens prior to announcing partners.

lynch ong

for refusing to listen to logic, skipping over what im explaining, then following it up with a "i have a secret idea" claim that cant amount to anything. villageOng typically would just spew out whatever he was thinking here, especially since i am here and willing to argue with him

i dont understand why you dont want to maximize our chances of killing a wolf tonight. we have 2 chances to get one and then we win the game. the only reasonable explanation for your action is you are disagreeing to drag out the Outing (but if you claim you are doing this then it will be extra wolfy)

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

But people reads are tainted pre flip. It's better after some initial discussion tomorrow, imo.

But, I'll go with the flow. I'm not being stubborn here, just expressin my opinion.

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I think reads may change somewhat once partners are revealed, but I don't think it will be dramatic enough to out right now.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Here's one reason why we shouldn't out today... if the wolves know who all the pairs are, then it's easier for them to pick their targets. Right now, it's hard for them to know who to swing for, because if they go too strong against one person, and give too much v cred to another, only to find they're a pair, they find themselves in an awkward spot.

By outing today, we make life less awkward for the wolves. For what? To make "informed" decision? I feel like I can do that already with monkey/drew.

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gabe, how is this not hitting the right note with you?

its obvious we should out before today's voting. combine this with wolfy post #173 and ong is being weird. its not like he can be any other special role...

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

I think reads may change somewhat once partners are revealed, but I don't think it will be dramatic enough to out right now.

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Yeah I agree, which is why i prefer later rather than sooner.

#173 is weird?

Why is it wolfy to say there's reasons to not out, and those reasons are best kept to oneself? I don't intend to help the wolves with their strategy.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

gabe, how is this not hitting the right note with you?

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pick their targets? it doesnt matter what the wolves do if we can find the highest ev pairs to vote for. thats what youre missing

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Here's one reason why we shouldn't out today... if the wolves know who all the pairs are, then it's easier for them to pick their targets. Right now, it's hard for them to know who to swing for, because if they go too strong against one person, and give too much v cred to another, only to find they're a pair, they find themselves in an awkward spot.

By outing today, we make life less awkward for the wolves. For what? To make "informed" decision? I feel like I can do that already with monkey/drew.

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THIS!!!!!!!

i dont think the awkwardness argument sways the EV enough

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Originally Posted by gabe

pick their targets? it doesnt matter what the wolves do if we can find the highest ev pairs to vote for. thats what youre missing

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EV is also opinion based by player. You may think I am 40% wolf and wuf is 55% wolf, however I may have wuf at 20%. Who's wolfmeter do you use in determining which pair has the most +ev?

I tend to fall quite heavily with Ong on this one and can't shake the feeling that the wolves want to out for some reason we haven't discovered yet.

Keeping my vote on you for now.

am i on crazy pills???? wtf??

lynch gator and ong and we win. that post gator just quoted isnt saying anything

that post = ong's post, not mine

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Originally Posted by gabe

pick their targets? it doesnt matter what the wolves do if we can find the highest ev pairs to vote for. thats what youre missing

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Yes, pick their targets. It's much easier for them if they can find a pair of villagers who can be presented as both wolfy. Right now, they're having to pick one target, while not being sure if the buddy is one of their stated village reads.

It's harder for the wolves to push for a mislynch today if they don't have all the info. What we gain from outing is speculative at best. I mean we might allow the wolves to get a mislynch they wouldn't have otherwise got.

I would imagine whoever is close to lynch will out their buddies. We probably will have all the info by accident before the day is out. But I don't think we should force the issue, because that helps the wolves more than us, imo.

If you disagree, fine. But disagreement isn't alignment indicative. My reasons for preferring to wait are clear, it's not like I'm being cagey about it.

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

I tend to fall quite heavily with Ong on this one and can't shake the feeling that the wolves want to out for some reason we haven't discovered yet.

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its impossible for it to be something we havent discovered yet. what does this even mean

i agree everyone's wolfimeter is different but thats why we discuss who we vote for and compare our wolfimeter ratings. knowing the pairs before the final vote tally (do you agree with this?) will help us deciding what the best pair to kill is

Can we get a votecount JKDS?

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

Keeping my vote on you for now.

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It kind of worries me that you're voting gabe right now.

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Originally Posted by gabe

...will help us deciding what the best pair to kill is

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Yes but gabe, I'm deeply concerned about who you refer to here when you say "us".

Because I feel this applies to the wolves more than the village.

I think we out the pairings.

An idea, why don't we have everyone name their top villager & wolf candidate then out? That way the wolves could be caught out somewhat. IDK if that works at all.

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Originally Posted by Hoopy

I think we out the pairings.

An idea, why don't we have everyone name their top villager & wolf candidate then out? That way the wolves could be caught out somewhat. IDK if that works at all.

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This, but tomorrow, if there's a tomorrow.

I'm going out, back in a few hours. If my buddy wants to out today, go right ahead. I don't, but it's not just my decision.

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Originally Posted by gabe

its impossible for it to be something we havent discovered yet. what does this even mean

i agree everyone's wolfimeter is different but thats why we discuss who we vote for and compare our wolfimeter ratings. knowing the pairs before the final vote tally (do you agree with this?) will help us deciding what the best pair to kill is

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Let's say I have Ong, Aubrey, wuf and Hoopy as likely villagers right now (not saying I do just using them as an example). If I find out Ong and Aubrey are linked but wuf is linked to rilla and Hoopy is linked to Gabe what do I do with that info? Does it make it less likely wuf and Hoopy are villagers or more likely rilla and Gabe are villagers?

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Originally Posted by Hoopy

I think we out the pairings.

An idea, why don't we have everyone name their top villager & wolf candidate then out? That way the wolves could be caught out somewhat. IDK if that works at all.

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Do you mean their top villager who is NOT their partner? If so I am not sure what this gains?

VOTE COUNT

Gabe (3): Gator, Boog, Ong
Wuf (3): Rascal, Supermonkey, Keith
Rilla (1): Wuf
Keith (1) Aubrey
Ong (1) Gabe

Idk when Dayend is, Im playing League of Legends right now.

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

Let's say I have Ong, Aubrey, wuf and Hoopy as likely villagers right now (not saying I do just using them as an example). If I find out Ong and Aubrey are linked but wuf is linked to rilla and Hoopy is linked to Gabe what do I do with that info? Does it make it less likely wuf and Hoopy are villagers or more likely rilla and Gabe are villagers?

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i think this example does a good job of illustrating my point

in the example, you would definitely not vote for ong/aubrey pair. even if ong, aubrey, wuf and hoopy all had the same chances of being a villager, you would know that the ong/aubrey pair has a less likely chance than a wuf/hoopy pair (in the example). this would gain you EV by knowing who was paired with who

outing helps the village make a more educated lynch

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

wolves rarely do this and you should know that.

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Meh, I do it all the time.

Rescind Gabe

lynch boog

I'm in harmony with a lot of what Ong is saying.

Gabe, wuf, ong, are all awful lynches today.

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Originally Posted by JKDS

VOTE COUNT

Gabe (3): Gator, Boog, Ong
Wuf (3): Rascal, Supermonkey, Keith
Rilla (1): Wuf
Keith (1) Aubrey
Ong (1) Gabe

Idk when Dayend is, Im playing League of Legends right now.

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Can't find where Ong bolded Gabe?

23 hours and change left in the game day.

I will extend the day by 48 hours if 1 more person requests an extension.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

lynch boog

I'm in harmony with a lot of what Ong is saying.

Gabe, wuf, ong, are all awful lynches today.

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Two posts. No logic. Nice.

Extension requested.

JKDS: I'm pretty sure Ong's vote is on me, not on Gabe.

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Originally Posted by BooG690

Two posts. No logic. Nice.

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Remind you of someone?

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Originally Posted by BooG690

Do I get modkilled for trying to lynch the mod?

Also, 85% sure Gabe is a wolf. His first post was absolute fluff. Almost a forced post.

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Originally Posted by BooG690

I'm still lynching Gabe here.

Lynch Gabe

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So you're saying you're equally as wolfy as me?

When I posted that, multiple people agreed with my read. It couldn't have been that illogical.

Yeah, I don't see a wolf Gabe drawing that much attention to himself by discussing game mechanics so much.

rescind

There's a difference between illogical and alogical.

Both of us are alogical. The difference is I've given 4 wolves. Why don't you give out your 4 wolves, or as small a pool as you can put them in

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Originally Posted by Keith

Wuf can you explain this post. If you have rilla at 10% wolf and "pretty damn high" at that ,and if the the last thing you bolding him is wolfy thereby implying that you are claiming that you are doing it as a villager . Why would a villager bold someone they think is pretty solidly a villager. This makes no sense.

Lynch wuf

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this is the second time you have said something factually inaccurate, something where you have misconstrued what the person said in an obvious way. iirc this is a tactic you use as a wolf but not often as a villager.

keith

i was planning on outing my partner on the very first post, but somebody said to not do it so i didnt

i'll have to think some more on it, but this entire game up to this point i have thought that partners needed to be outed at the 24 hour before the first eod

my guess as to the best lynch strategy is to find the two most likely villagers and not lynch them and find the two most likely wolves and lynch them. sounds duh

Updated (and totally reliable and not at all incorrect) VOTE COUNT

Wuf (3) rascal, Supermonkey, Keith
Boog (2) Ong, Rilla
Keith (1) Wuf
Ong (1) Gabe

Deadline extended, 72ish hours left in the day

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

my guess as to the best lynch strategy is to find the two most likely villagers and not lynch them and find the two most likely wolves and lynch them. sounds duh

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i mean this for d1 and d2, not the pairings. so, find the most likely person to be a wolf and lynch him and his pair regardless of how the pair is, unless the pair is one of the two most likely villagers.

how do we ever lose with an extension? gotta be majorly pro v

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Originally Posted by wufwugy

if this was a game of logic, keith rascal and bid would be wolves

the last thing my rilla bold is is wolfy. the first thing you guys are for not seeing why it's not wolfy is wolfy.

ive got all three of rilla bid rascal wolves at like 10%. pretty damn high for all three imo

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where am i factually wrong ? you said rilla is a wolf 10% whilst you had him bolded . Where is the logic in that? You didn't even attempt to explain it.

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Originally Posted by Keith

where am i factually wrong ? you said rilla is a wolf 10% whilst you had him bolded . Where is the logic in that? You didn't even attempt to explain it.

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maybe i see now how you could have thought i meant individually. read the next sentence after the bolded, it's 10% for all three as a team.

so i show up and the thread dies? happened yesterday too

lame game is lame

i dont think rilla is a wolf any longer (maybe he is). what i think is more likely is that he's a villager who wants to get a game under his belt where he is perceived as playing badly because he thinks it will help his wolf game

If I go against the grain and out my "lover", will I get another infraction?

Maybe I don't have to though cause I think he already outted me. I'm playing on a cell phone and it's hard to tell. If you know what I mean.

I like ong as a villager and rilla's quality of posts have been good. I'm not yet seeing wuf as a wolf too. Also, I very much truly hate hate hate beeuguh's post about gabe being 85% wolf after what? Two posts? This is partly why I think rilla is a villager.

lynch boog

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Originally Posted by BooG690

Rescind Gabe

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I feel like this is boog trying to not get anymore heat for the 85% post.

Sup guys?

I just got home, going to catch up.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Here's one reason why we shouldn't out today... if the wolves know who all the pairs are, then it's easier for them to pick their targets. Right now, it's hard for them to know who to swing for, because if they go too strong against one person, and give too much v cred to another, only to find they're a pair, they find themselves in an awkward spot.

By outing today, we make life less awkward for the wolves. For what? To make "informed" decision? I feel like I can do that already with monkey/drew.

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I'm leaning Ong as villa for this and his progression up to this post. This looks like villa thought processes.

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Originally Posted by GatorJH

I agree here. Where villagers are protecting one player wolves are protecting three. This may make it harder for them to align in two's with more posting that happens prior to announcing partners.

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Villa points for gator too.