910 suited gives you the best odds against AA but I’m sure someone already said that... :lol: :wink:
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910 suited gives you the best odds against AA but I’m sure someone already said that... :lol: :wink:
just to add more fire to the mix...
have you guys considered the fact that with 65s, the aces are potentially taking 2 outs away from you if the board is 234, and with aces, the 65s is taking 1 out from you if the board is 234...
oh snap! what did i do now...
Odds of suited connectors beating AA when the suit does not overlay a suit of either Ace:
32s: 17.602%
43s: 19.626%
54s: 21.649%
65s: 23.056%
76s: 23.033%
87s: 23.021%
98s: 22.623%
T9s: 22.765%
JTs: 21.717%
QJs: 19.701%
KQs: 17.685%
AKs: 12.141%
The winner is 65s just barely clipping 76s.
Source: PokerStove, run in full evaluation mode so that it considers all possible 5 card flops. In this particular case,PokerStove reports that as 1,712,304 boards. That jives with the expected (48! / 43! ) / 5!.
Poker Stove is giving you incorrect results. Does Poker Stove account for ties? As I posted earlier, the simulator at pokertips.org gives you exact results the way a calculator does and accounts for ties. The simulator at twodimes.net works equally as well. They do not simulate thousands of hands.
65s will beat AA 391,582 times (22.8687% of the time) out of all the possible hands that can be dealt and 76s will beat AA 391,637 times (22.8719% of the time).
PokerStove accounts for ties splitting equity evenly between the winning hands in such a case. As I mentioned, PokerStove DOES NOT sample hands, it iterates through the entire set of 1,712,304 possible boards in that scenario and it reports as such.Quote:
Originally Posted by Martini
From the pokerstove website:Quote:
Originally posted by Pyroxene
As I mentioned, PokerStove DOES NOT sample hands, it iterates through the entire set of 1,712,304 possible boards in that scenario and it reports as such.
The simulators at pokertips.org and twodimes.net are superior, in that they will both give you the exact number of hands it is possible for each hand to win and tells you exactly how many ties there are. They don't average anything out over repeated trials. The hand that wiil actually beat A,A more than any other heads-up is 8,7s (where the suit is different from the suit of the Aces).Quote:
The values generated are all-in equity values. This is not the chance that a hand will win the pot. Rather it is the fraction of the pot that a hand will win on average over many repeated trials, including split pots.
PokerStove can be set to run in an average over repeated trials. But I have set it to run in full evaluation mode. As I have said, it iterated through all the possible board combinations and reported that number of board combinations through which it iterated. It's reported iteration count was 1,712,304 which is exactly the expected count of a 48_C_5 equation. The difference in expectation is brought about through the ties. To be specific, the utility that you mention at two dimes reports that 65s will win 391582 times and will tie 6415 times out of 1,712,304 possible boards. As there are two hands, ties provide 50% equity, yielding an effective equity of (391582 + 6415 * 0.5) / 1,712,304 or 23.056% which is exactly the equity that PokerStove gave, as listed in my first message. As to 76s, the two dimes utility reports 391637 wins and 5499 times. Again, ties yield a 50% equity so 76s would have an equity of (391637 + 5499 *0.5) / 1,712,304 or 23.033% which, again, is exactly the equity given by PokerStove in my first message. For completeness, the 87s numbers from twodimes yields an equity of 23.021, also matching PokerStove's measurement.Quote:
Originally Posted by Martini
The point of this being, 65s fairs better then 76s or 87s because of an increased number of ties and the 50% equity returned from such ties. Both PokerStove and the twodimes utility yield identical numbers bearing this out.
I already mentioned that 65s is the best hand to have heads-up against AA. As a side note, I posted that 78s actually beats AA more than any other hand heads-up.Quote:
Originally posted by Pyroxene
The point of this being, 65s fairs better then 76s or 87s because of an increased number of ties and the 50% equity returned from such ties. Both PokerStove and the twodimes utility yield identical numbers bearing this out.
Your quote:
It turns out that Pokerstove isn't incorrect, but you were incorrect stating that you were giving the odds of suited connectors beating AA. You were listing expected values. 87s has the best odds of beating AA.Quote:
Odds of suited connectors beating AA when the suit does not overlay a suit of either Ace:
32s: 17.602%
43s: 19.626%
54s: 21.649%
65s: 23.056%
76s: 23.033%
87s: 23.021%
98s: 22.623%
T9s: 22.765%
JTs: 21.717%
QJs: 19.701%
KQs: 17.685%
AKs: 12.141%
The winner is 65s just barely clipping 76s.
Ah, I see what you are saying now. I was speaking in terms of what hand other than the other AA has the best EV against pocket Aces. You were speaking in terms of actually beats. That being the case, yes I agree that 87s actually has a higher chance of beating AA; I should have been more clear that my numbers where EV%. I will note again, however, to those reading this that it still has a lower EV against AA due to ties.Quote:
Originally Posted by Martini