busted balls cos of his day 1 lynch as wolf?
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Yeah it's been Keith/Keybored in a lot of the posts. I was just pointing out that gabe wants to focus on these two, and that I think they have both been involved in V-on-V violence along with rong, baudib, and Keith.
Post #1002 was in reply to daven's Post #999.
To Keybored:
It depends on which wagon it is. I'm not wagoning anyone I think is a Villager. I could go for a BID lynch. There was one post early-on from him that I thought was Villagery but nothing since.
dhuber, imagine im a wolf. no one is attacking me. and then for no reason i attack a player with seemingly lots of experience playing on other forums. that would make no sense at all. its not like monstrman was pushing an agenda i was trying to stop. i would have no motivation to go after someone especially when the village obviously wasnt agreeing with me. i think you are on level 0 here
^^^ Thanks guys.
My earlier reads had Rong & Keith leaning village but as of now I've gotta move Rong to neutral for his Baudib logic and downgrade Keith to wolf-lean due to his refusal to do anything but tunnel. Also, I'm moving Wuf off deadlock and up to just a wolf-lean; his reasoning has improved a lot recently. JKDS has moved from a wolf-lean to neutral now. Gabe stays on a wolf-lean despite Dhubs opine. So, here's what I'm seeing.
KEYB = Villager (BID - bolding for now)
DHUBER = Villager (Gabe)
BAUDIB = Villager (BID)
LUCO = Villager (BID)
BIGRED = Villager (Aubrey)
DAVEN = Villager (Wuf)
RONG = Neutral (Baudib)
JKDS = Neutral (Keyb)
AUBRY = Neutral (No Vote Yet)
BID = Wolf (JKDS)
GABE = Wolf Leaning (Keyb)
MONSTR = Wolf Leaning (No Vote Yet)
WUF = Wolf Leaning (Baudib)
KEITH = Wolf Leaning (Keyb)
Note: I added the current bolds in parenthesis as a last minute thing to keep Keith from going postal with two separate posts. I find it interesting that my V and W camps are voting opposed. I wouldn't have noticed that otherwise; thx keith.
Oh yeah...RESCIND, LYNCH BID
although i understand keith's point about this being not 100% reflective of the reality of involvement, i think there are only a few exceptions.
keith's involvement is obviously far greater than post count suggests, keybored's is a little lower. bigred's is obviously lower (funny, i read 'red' and my first response is 'wtf, redzill4 in da house?').
What is correct is that aubrey/bid/dhubs/monstr/bigred/jkds are all close to zero content on day 2, although dhubs is at least present and posting now.
jkds - where are ya?
bid - you're gonna get lynched buddy. Fake out as the Miller if you get too much heat imo.
aubrey - at some point she can't be allowed to drift along any further.
still happy with one of wuf/keybored today though. If we're going to wagon an inactive then we should do it early in the day, not late cos special risk etc.
Thx...not trying to move your vote, just wondering why you decided to sit on a deserted island like that. Gabe's been off imo and that puts him in my wolf house, but he doesn't look like a decent bold yet. Plus, no way he gets lynched this early playing as he is.
Given all the arguments going on and the way yesterday went down, I can't help feeling like a BID lynch is just a bit of a cop out. It resolves nothing, satiates no curiosity and leaves all grievances unsolved.
But then again, sometimes wolves are quite hapy to leave the busy and angry villagers to it.
Iunno, at the very least it's no fun.
rescind baudib,
lynch keyboard
BID doesnt seem like the villlager bid from last game. Hes not exactly my highest concern atm though. Gabe seems villagery enough, but i cant figure out the monstr read one way or another.
People that are high on my radar right now.
-Keybored: I cased it before, but im doubting myself. He doesnt like BID for villager...which gives him points...but I'm not convinced thats not just part of a wolfy 'induce paranoia' gameplan. Hes also a high profile seer target, as wuf said, so waiting may not even be a bad idea.
-keith: Its 11 pages in, and Keith has spoken only about keybored. This does not sit right at all. People keep saying "who can read keith", but those are people who look at post count and post length instead of actual style differences between villager and wolf. Keith attacked baudib last game, and within a page he lasso'd another 3 people into it. He got 3/4 right. This is what villager keith does, even when he ends up 0/4. Its bothers me that his conspiracy theory seems tame this game, and that no one else has been roped into it.
-Wuf: Hes posting frequently, yes. But again, 11 pages in, and I havent seen one of those creative, happy 'gotcha' posts. Theyre usually wrong, super wrong, but i havent seen one. They stem from wuf thinking about the game, finding a cool thought, then posting it on the off chance hes right and can showoff his epicness. That hasnnt happened this game though. Maybe its a style change, but that would be drastic and would go against his entire ww philosophy of 'be epic, soulreads are cool'.
Rong seems super villagery. I still like daven as a vill too
LOL. keybored is posting nonsense without reading thread. can we lynch him. that jkds line seems pretty bad
im fine with keybored vs wuf.
rescind baud lynch keybored
the only lynch i am wholly not cool with is aubrey. she's a villager. she's probably only going to look at this thread like 5 more times for the whole game, if that. if she was a wolf, she would actually try to participate, but right now, villaging is literally the last thing on her mind
two more things: i guarantee im wrong about daven/baud/gabe. i just, i fucking have to be. ive played enough games where i have epic reads and theyre always wrong
and like ive said in the past, early and mid game is all about setting up the late game. unlike in early game, my late game reads are super strong. ive said many times i dont think lynching wolves is that great in early game, and instead early game is about making the right lynches to set up a strong village that can cut through the chaff at the end.
of the low content players, i think jkds and luco are the most suspect, but eh i guess we have to wait to address those. these game days are seriously too long for me
fuck it, i don't think keybored would play so badly as seer.
his wagon is at the stage that in the very unlikely event that he's seer he'll have to out anyway
so, here's the reason i thought he had arrooed,
he posted the lower quote (#793) in response to this post of mine:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...quote_icon.png Originally Posted by daven http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...post-right.png
@ keybored, i don't think we gain a whole lot of info from mmm's wagon given that it was villager vs villager and he'd made a play that meant he had to go before mid-game
my gut response was that his agreement meant that he somehow knew i was villager = obviously making him a wolf. Gotcha! then i feared that he knew i was a villager cos he'd looked me up on night 1, hence my deletion before posting and seer comment instead etc. But, meh. I'm a pretty bad night 1 lookup given how day 1 played out, and i think keybored is too good to have looked me up on night 1 if he was seer.
So, yeah, keybored somehow knows i'm a villager. And keybored wouldn't look me up on night 1 as seer.
conclusion....
actually you know what, i dont like this. ijust cannot read keybored whatsoever
rescind keybored
Look at the Wolves piling on! They smell blood and chomp-chomp. I used this same technique a lot last game as wolf. I'm headed afk for some football n beers. If I die while away, well, I hope more good comes of it than that MMM lynch. BTW, the Seer has spoken in case anyone's listening. Just sayin...
i think this is the most vil thing you've done, but i dont necessarily think it means key is a wolf. man i have seen him, you, and many others say things that seem so secretly malignant yet just turn out to have been benign. for example, key couldd easily have just agreed with you because he *thinks* you're a villager. or he could have been agreeing with just the line "i dont think we gain a whole lot fo info from mmm's wagon".
the bane of my ww existence is people saying weird things
as for other things about keybored, he isn't doing some things he did in the last game as a wolf. mb he improved, mb not. remember when he was buck nekid, he looked soooo wolfy but wasnt. it was in his wolf game that you guys thought he looked the most villy. i agree with keith's view of him, but i dont think that necessarily means key's a wolf
actually the bane of my ww existence is people not saying exactly what they mean and not giving the logic behind their views. granted i do the same thing and am probably not as aware of how
Daven, I'd like you to comment on Wuf's idea that I started out bussing you but was really trying to protect you.
The thing that stands out to me on this page is JKDS #1016, that's a really insightful post from someone who has been quiet so far.
As far as Keybored, I'll say that I do think there are differences to his game from last game. I don't think he contributed many independent thoughts on who to wagon, he more or less put his finger in the air to see which way the wind was blowing. I did think he could be W-W again with Ong, because their interactions still seemed awkward like last game.
Re: Him rescinding MMM. Keith has had some epic D1 reads for sure, but this is the reason I thought Keybored was different this game. He had a clearly evolving read, which is something villagers do. If the wolves thought MMM could be Cursed, it's fair to believe they'd want to keep him alive but it's also a way to get village cred (maybe not, no one was really getting credit for voting MMM). The thing is, even if MMM were Cursed and converted, he was never going to live long so it doesn't seem like something to stick your neck out over.
fuck it lynch bigred
and now every finger i've pointed at anybody else so far shows my sheer hypocrisy, because these last several posts of mine have been highly confusing
if i was you guys, id be blowing a fucking gasket over me right now
i just, fuck this is so dumb that i cant find all the wolves immediately and be done with it. my fantasy is that a true boss can just see the bullshit with a little thought then walks away like it was no thang
dont worry wuf you have been and continue to be suspicious
gabe and i with the mimic posts on wuf lol
I said I wouldn't talk to Wuf for 24 hours but just LOL
I can't come to any other conclusion other than Wuf doesn't even believe the shit he's slinging. After I got mislynched as a villager, Wuf actually gave me some solid advice, that you can't soul read the whole wolf team on D1. That game, he wasn't even trying to find wolves D1, he was making excuses for why we should be lynching the inactives.
Wuf says he wants to just play like Jack Vance, and sit back and come in and point to who will die and make it happen. He might actually believe this part because of ego, but the idea that he could play like this and have anyone listen to him is just hilarious.
btw, that which looks suspicious about me is that which makes me villager. look back at my turncoat game. i convinced fucking everybody i was a lock villager. i wasnt in full wolf mode then because i wasnt exactly a wolf, but i did use a handful of strategies ive developed for optimal wolfing
every time i look like a wolf, you can be guaranteed im not a wolf. but if i ever look like a villager, that's when ill be a wolf. but by then it will be too late since i will have already masterminded village doom
more utter nonsense^
wuf is forever honorary wolf
"every time i look like a wolf, you can be guaranteed im not a wolf. but if i ever look like a villager, that's when ill be a wolf."
what a player!
I can't even.
I'm pretty sure if you follow Wuf's own logic on why he wanted to lynch me, you'd have to lynch Wuf.
lol i totally missed that. as did daven, baud, and gabe. go fuckin figure
I skimmed the start of Day 2, I dont see any obvious "I looked up x, hes y" posts from keybored.
I also dont recall Key ever pointing towards or away from anyone in his 'analysis/research' posts either. Someone with actual knowledge of 1 persons role would use their analysis/research to point towards that result (or they'd think their analysis/research was bs).
Looks like bs to me.
i saw it and keybored is still bold. i dont think hes a sharp enough villager to have spotted the seer. i believe he might tihnk he has, or that hes a wolf who feels trapped
doesnt look like he's claiming he spotted the seer but that he is the seer
he cant be the seer. he could be cursed tho
lunch kuyburud
i dont care if you guys lynch me, just dont cinch me
@Gabe: It could mean that. But theres no context to suggest he meant he spotted the seer. He just kinda randomly says "the seer has spoken". And if he meant that the seer's been talking this game...well of course...everyone's been talking. Its a claim.
JKDS, I saw it and don't think it's a big deal. I guess he is soft-claiming some sort of PR role but w/e.
I mean our games react differently to claims than other forums.
At POG I could say "hey I got seer" on day 1 and everyone would ignore me (except the wolves) until I made it a hard claim. Because everyone more or less hints at being a PR.
In keybored's case I don't think it means anything until he really hard claims.
Obviously real seer/Priest should not out.
real seer (assuming it's not keybored), don't out in response to this from keybored obviously.
what it feels like to me is a wolf ploy to try and generate the true seer to out.
agree re the above that he could be cursed and now trying to help the wolves to get the seer to out.
meh, i think keybored would be a lot clearer if he was truly the seer. I read through his reads posts before posting what i thought about him as wolf, and why i had earlier thought he might be seer, and nothing stood out that made me consider him seer.
how much longer on this game day?
@Baudib: Generally, you would have a point.
But he said it in response to being lynched,. Not to provide cover for the seer.
Besides, is that what Keybored does? Does anyone have experience with him fake claiming as a villager? I dont think he plays off-ftr, but idk about that
Vote Count 2.2
keybored - 5 (keith, JKDS, gabe, rong, wuf)
wuf - 2 (daven, baudib)
BID - 2 (Luco, keybored)
gabe - 1 (dhuber)
JKDS - 1 (BID)
aubrey - 1 (bigred)
No vote - (aubrey, monstrman)
8 votes to lynch!
Just under 24hrs to go.
I didn't realize Keybored was such a runaway. I guess he needs to clarify.
I thought he was soft-claiming priest with his "I'm looking to uncover the seer to protect him" comment.
Keybored said he didn't even know WW existed on other forums so he didn't pick up the strat somewhere else.
So yeah with him being lead wagon he's prob a special or wolf.
I'm not liking the Keybored wagon one bit. I like a BID lynch less than a gabe lynch, but could switch to BID. The issue here is that Keybored played so well as Wolf last match that he could be a target by Villagers with that as a main reason.
wuf's posts aren't giving me any information, but I still don't like a wuf-lynch any more than a Keybored lynch. I'm dead-set against a baudib lynch as well, same goes for rong. Does anyone want to join me on the gabe wagon?
Rescind keyboard
Couple of games back drew claimed angel on the ropes and I called BS, but still rescinded. Turns out he was legit.
If there's a special claim of any sort, you snap rescind no matter how fishy you think it is.
You of all people should know better. Remember the star wars game where the village lynched Luke Skywalker D1?
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
You were a villager that game. So was rong. He's rescinded, why haven't you? You're not this stupid, wolfy as fuck.Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
It doesn't look like a seer claim to me because he's caled himself vanillager more than once this game and he was telling keith to 'find the seer' before that post. But anyone who thought he was claiming seer but hasn't rescinded is wolfy or stupid.
Gabe doesn't see it as a seer claim, just that he claims to have found the seer
Wuf thinks he's claiming seer, then bolds him. Wolfy or stupid.
Daven is on wuf here, not keybored. Still pushes for his lynch though, wolfy or stupid
Winner winner chicken dinner
rescind drew, lynch jkds
Slow day
where is aubrey in all of this?
Thanks luco, for switching to jkds. I think he and keybored are wolves.
To be clear, why do you think jkds and key are wolves?
how does a seer make this post , theres a 180 on what he says about me so could indicate a lookup, but its vague. Lots of people are definites though so the definites are more likely to have been his lookup than me but how can the village know who the lookup was. Luco's post above about him telling me to look for the seer could have been a reference to this post implying that that i should realise that he changed his stance on me so he likely looked me up and therefore he was the seer. He can easily say that as a wolf though to make my attacks on him stop. Look how i twisted the wording of Ongs (?) crumb to get a mislynch in keybored's first game. he'd be well aware of how wolves would twist ambiguous statements and certainly wouldn't have made this post with this wording if he was the seer.
That Was the Weakest seer claim I've ever seen. Given the speed of the wagon it doesn't seem legit. Surely he'd of been much clearer if actually the seer. Seemed more like buying time to confer with wolf buddies.
You've been showing some insight into daven but your entire read on baud is vicarious i.e. through his interactions with Daven. Seriously wuf, where have you actually talked about baudib without mentioning daven?
I CBA (can't be arsed) to go back and find whatever game it was where you told everyone to focus on ONE WOLF AT A TIME because these supposed interactions are nearly always tenuous, but from memory it's the one where you rilla and gator were the final three. But it was definitely you who said it, this post I've just quoted you're saying it again, yet time and again you're on baud by way of daven
I was rereading some of last game to see if I could find anything, and I was really looking to see how Keybored responded to pressure. He wasn't really in danger of getting lynched, but one thing I noticed were a few comments about how he had independent thoughts. I didn't think he had independent thoughts, but obviously I knew his role. It occurred to me that the same thing could be happening here, and one of the reasons I was liking him on D1 was he was agreeing with me on a lot of things, specifically lynching Daven.
This is Keybored's last post, the one with the supposed claim. It really does not read like a claim to me, because he seems OK with dying. Maybe it was intended to confuse people or to stall, in the hopes that something amazing would happen while he was gone.
I have to think if he were seer he wouldn't be OK with getting lynched, and tbh at this point it feels like anti-spew mode.
He also didn't explain his BID lynch. That said, we probably still have to wait for him to clarify. I don't agree with the reasoning from Keith and Daven that there's no way he'd play seer this way. The guy has never played seer and in the one game where he lived past D2, there wasn't even a seer in the game. So frankly he doesn't have a ton of experience in knowing how a seer should or shouldn't play.
I was in the process of directly answering this question, but am skeptical.
Could this be baud-wolf soliciting a direct, Level 0 answer (from one of the players who's most likely to give it) in order to gauge potential future wagons a known Villager (assuming he's Wolf obv) will likely come up with?
I don't think this is a case of Too Wolfy To Be A Wolf on baud's behalf... either this is a tactic to gain bonafide information as a Wolf from a known Villager or it is a legitimate question coming from a Villager. It's known that I'm on a gabe-lynch at the moment with stated option to switch to BID. It's the "Triple Vig" part that seems suspicious to me, although it's a clear-cut way of asking who I think the three Wolves are as well.
I'm going to go back through baud's posts, but in the meantime, how do other players read the question posted by baudib in #1077? Friend or Foe?
#980#988#995#1009so #988 he still has me as a misguided fellow villager. my only post after that was correcting the vote count i'd done and an hour and a half after saying that i'm was a villager he now has me leaning wolf again. In the same post , he had changed JKDS from wolf to neutral. Why the obsession with me finding the seer. I have my suspicions , but i sure as hell ain't gonna post who i think it is or even help the wolves narrow down who i think it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by keith
forgot to say , if by some miracle keybored is the seer, its pretty clear that he didn't look me up else he'd have left me as villager.
No Dhuber, the reason I asked is because I didn't want to sound condescending, as Rong put it.
Alright, I still think you're likely a villager but I don't think your D2 has been that impressive. It seems quite impossible to me that you could be unhappy with all of the wagons. At this point I'd say that sticks out quite a bit.
Go back and review me, and you'll find I was the first to say Gabe was acting really weird. And I started the BID wagon.
As for Gabe, his D2 has been a whole helluva lot better than his D1. Put simply, killing Gabe is the wolves' job.
I will say that the lack of people talking about Gabe is ... palpable.
To baudib:
The suspicion of your Post #1077 is derived from:
(A) The timing of it... about 12 hours before daytime ends and at a time (if you've monitored my post activity) when I'm likely to be asleep until right before the day ends.
(B) It's somewhat a nod of respect to my recent Wolf reads that I don't believe is fully justified. The ratio of skill:run good on my deductions in the last two games is highly debatable. There's also the fact that I wasn't able to pinpoint Keybored as a Wolf last match until he tried some form of flattery.
(C) I've openly stated that I'm having issues reading Bad guys so far this match. While Post #1077 has an equal chance of being a genuine question from a Villager standpoint, it also reeks when considered from an assumption that you're a Wolf. I can see a Den convo involving wanting to gain Level 0 information from me on who I believe are most likely to be Wolves, and then base an upcoming nighttime decision partly on that intel.
I realize my suspicions are highly self-absorbed (something I've criticized about MMM's gameplay). Therefore I'd rather wait for the European's to post their opinions before acting, perhaps irrationally, on my suspicions. I was going to go to sleep about now, but I've got some work to do so will do that and hope for more replies in the next couple of hours.
I like your answer. Trouble is, you're not easily swayed from your opinions so if you name any villagers in the three the wolves would almost certainly try to leverage it. Something to consider should you choose to reply
FWIW I still trust baudib and think you should too, I tone cleared him quite early and his balance of posts is overwhemingly villager. And I know I'm coming off the back of my worst game ever (literally I've never gone 0/3 in wolves before, ever) but I still have to trust my gut here.
Dhuber, I'll say this. If I were a wolf, I could pick that post of yours apart quite easily. Just like I could have gone after your "yet another vanilla" comment again, but didn't.
If you object to the wagons, you could give more detail as to why you object to them. If you think they're villager wagons, then say
why.
Otherwise, it has the faintest whiff of TMI.
Oh yeah, I keep forgetting there's a Cursed. But if we were to kill the 3 wolves, we win.
Actually, how does Cursed count as far as our win condition?
If it's 3-3-1, do the wolves win? Or if it's 1-1-1?
I had to go back to the signup thread.
OK 1-1-1 has to be an automatic win for the wolves, because at that point the wolf could just openly declare he's a wolf and the Cursed will vote with him no matter what.
But at 3-3-1 an unconverted Cursed still counts as a villager?
Meh, no worries about whether you or someone else chooses to easily pick apart any of my posts. There's enough already provided in my posts to make it pretty clear that I'm a Villager, and there are decisions that can be made mid-game (such as what happened last match) that can make it almost a lock which side I'm on. I'm not worried about it and if the Wolves are able to distract the remaining players again then well played.
If you didn't go after my "Vanilla Villager" "yet another" post then that's for one of two reasons: (A) You're a Villager who believed I'm a Villager, or (B) You're a Wolf who knows I'm a Villager and wanted to wait for a correct opportunity to use me a mislynch bait. In your words, a vote to lynch me early game was "sketchy" and it's not like others didn't point out my VV claim, so your reasoning has to be one of the two listed above.
As for Keybored, yes I believe he's a Villager. And no, I don't believe he was claiming to be the Seer in that post of his. That's not the way I read it. The "has spoken" part I believe he is referring to a post by another player who he believes gives an obvious hint that he might be the Seer.
I believe Keybored was intrigued (one of the few players here who I think could be intrigued/influenced by my playing style) at the fact that I began openly listing people who I would work with last match, and is attempting to incorporate that into a playing style for this game (hence his posts early game trying to form alliances).
My Day #2 posting is due to weekend activities away from the boards. It's the best point I believe Keith has brought up this whole match (aside from the need to immediately lynch MMM, obviously)... decreased activity generally is not role-indicative.
Finally, please add "TMI" to Werewolf Slang/Abbreviations/Terms.
Dhuber, your confidence in the belief that everyone can see you're a villager in fact makes you very villagery. But last game should be an example of how you can sometimes get yourself in trouble. That earlier post made me cringe.
Also, Gabe getting lynched after lynching 2 wolves in 2 days how easy it is for villager paranoia to lead them astray. I was in a game where the wolves poisoned the most lock-clear villager 2 straight days (the village poisoner was dead) and he still get mislynched at must-lynch.
Decreased activity generally IS role-indicative. Real life things happen all the time but slanking is the easiest way for wolves to slide by. The idea that has arisen this game that decreased activity is a villager tell is kinda world turned upside down, even if it might be true for a couple of people.
And, OMG, TMI is a totally well known acronym outside of WW, FFS!
TMI = Too Much Information then?
About the time Daven started ranting about Ong or MMM being Cursed I realized I had forgotten about the Cursed, I think there's a post I said it. At that point I decided that finding the Cursed should really be the wolves' problem until the night actions indicate that the conversion took place.
If Rilla were here he'd say the opposite I think. I've been thinking about that over the weekend.
as far as the hellhole, I just died 30 minutes into a new game where I had a cool role. awesome.
I'm pretty freaking rustled actually. I spent 3 hours this morning studying players in the game and my role was awesome.
at least i won't be multi-tabling I guess.
oh come on Luco, seriously.
They are the same in a sense in that you look for non-villagers but it clearly says in that post that Daven thinking so much about the Cursed is fishy and we should just find wolves instead.