I'm a villager. I'm highly confident boog is a wolf. Just trust me on this.
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I'm a villager. I'm highly confident boog is a wolf. Just trust me on this.
No. If rascal is wolf, mojo is very probably a villager. Trust me.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
All the arguments against me (by baudib and Drew) are all applicable to baudib. Drew, you're tunneling me and ignoring baudib. What are your thoughts on baud?
I'm going to post while extremely drunk tonight. Trust me on this.
Are you srz? The vote was gabe 4 boog 5. Late. Then three players jumped on a v-v wagon.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I agree.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
This assumes rascal is a wolf though, which I'm not at all convinced of yet.
This is a lie.Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
My only argument against you is for late game voting patterns which resulted in a v-v lynch.
Did gabe have his vote on baudib at the end of the day? No. Fuck off.
Well I can only say if I think he's a wolf or villager, and either say trust me, or back it up with stuff from this thread. At the moment it's a case of trust me.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I'm 100% with Bid on this and not at all understanding why Ong doesn't get it.
and this is damn wolfy
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I'm not convinced Rascal is a wolf, certainly not enough to sacrifice Ong for it.
Luco trolling is an interesting look btw.
BID, I'm not lynching MMM today. I'll fight tooth and nail against any lynch that's not Wuf/Boog.
You said nothing about a vote in this post:Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Who'd gabe want dead?Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Oh, that's right.Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe
Tell me I'm lying again.
To summarise my reason for baudib/rascal team...
- ong says just before gabe/rong flip that a v/v looks bad for partner
- gabe/rong flip v/v
- I vote daven and fuck off to bed
- blah blah
- baudib says I'm 90% villager while maintaining an element of distrust
- shows no interest in my partner
I propose that baudib showed no interest in my partner because he already knew who it is. He can't come swinging too wildly for me because I'm effectively a wolf with him, but he doesn't want me getting too much trust from the village becuase my loyalties are to the village. So he makes a comment saying I'm 90% villager but...
monstr said I'm a villager for going against consesus. That was a natural comment.
baudib said I'm 90% villager but... that is agenda driven.
rong wasn't going to vote for his partner unless he was really sure he was wolfing, same for everyone else.Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
Why daven?Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
But everyone except bigred had voted at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by lilrascal
Monstr, if you're a villager you need to put in more effort today. Give us the lowdown on Boog.
Wuf/Hoopy need to be more active as well.
Ong, get your head in the game already. the rest of us don't FPS as much as you think we should.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
lynch baudib
The logical path for me really. If I'm wrong about rascal, I've got no more outs, whers if I'm wrong about baudib, I might get lucky with rilla, though I doubt it.
You do.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
I really don't. You're taking a pretty low EV line as a villager here.
How can you know this? You have no idea why I suspect rascal... unless he's telling you, of course.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
I think, from your perspective, there has to be a pairing that is greater than .5 wolf.
And Hoopy made a good catch on Rascal because his placement of Daven stopped me too. But in review I don't think Daven's game has been that bad, he's had wolfy, low-posting villager games before.
Yeah... you/rilla is around 0.51Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
I think me/rilla is around .00
Ong, the movement from Boog to Gabe is textbook wolf 101. For you to say the wolves made no effort to save Boog/Monstr is patently absurd. BID is crushing you in logic here.
Occam's Razor is your friend.
drew is crushing my logic? Funny, I can't even remember what he's said.
Yes, but I initiated it. Me. A villager. There might well have been wolves jumping on after, I'm not disputing that. They figure I'll take the rap for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
The point is, I stirred the pot late. Under an hour. Wolves just sat back and left boog/monstr in the lead ahead of gabe/rong. If wolves are going to attempt to save him, it's gonna look bad if it's done really late. They should be doing it with plenty of hours left.
Both wagons look like v/v to me.
Mod Corner
Vote Count!
(3) Baudib: Monstrman, Boog, Ongbonga
(2) Wufwugy: a500lbgorilla, Baudib
(1) Ongbonga: Luco
(1) Boog: Bankitdrew
Day 2 Ends in ~2.5 Days
BTW
http://media1.giphy.com/media/25y13Z2wXRRO8/200.gif
Archersaurus is a thing
Your logic here is really failing you Ong. If I'm reading it correctly, Boog was already on Gabe and Rascal made a late vote switch? And Daven and Wuf were camped on Gabe. Is this correct?
~1 hour is an eternity for Rascal, who is a turbo player accustomed to entire game days lasting 20 minutes.
and the idea that I'm casting shade on you by saying you're 90% villager when I've implied I was never lynching you this game previously is a real stretch. Why are you playing badly?
I've got the Wuf-Hoopy and Boog-Monstr pairings producing around .75 to .85 wolves, going back and forth on them though. I think the most likely villager of the 4 is Monstr.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
I'm not voting for myself.
I mean the idea that the wolves wouldn't hop on to save Boog/Monstr after a vocal villager like Ong led the charge is downright stupid.
Led the charge with under an hour left.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Why were they dithering? Why wait for me? I could be asleep, it was 4am or whatever.
Why are you being dumb? I'm suggesting you're a wolf with my buddy. Of course you want to cast doubt on me while not wanting to lynch me. "90% villager but" is really fucking convenient if you're a wolf with my partner.Quote:
and the idea that I'm casting shade on you by saying you're 90% villager when I've implied I was never lynching you this game previously is a real stretch. Why are you playing badly?
You suggesting I'm playing badly, and saying that drew is owning me, this is you playing to me ego. That in itself is wolfy. You're not remotely concerned about why I'm reading my partner as wolfy, you're not wondering if I have poor information that ties you to him, you're just trying to slap my ego about in an attempt to get me off your back. I think you know I'm right about you both.
I'm trying to get you to get your head in the game so we can win. your argument makes no sense. I'm really certain I'd bus the shit out of rascal if we were W/W, wolf rascal isn't likely to live long on this site when he got turbolynched as the uncountered angel last game. If that leads to getting rid of villager Ong, even better.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I want to keep you alive despite rascal's wolf equity, whatever it may be.
you are definitely playing badly, Ong. The next game we play, remember that I've read you better than you me for many games now.
I'm not a wolf with rascal because I'd bus him.
What an awesome argument.
Lynch baudib, then when he shows up wolf, lynch the fuck out of me.
YOURE NOT MY SUPERVISOR!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
Vote count corrected.
I don't follow.Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
Did gabe have his vote on boog or on baudib?
If the final vote was 7-5
And my vote was the last vote-action
Then it was 6-6 before my switch.
If it was 6-6, the tie would def go to boog.
The wagons were exactly equal with (from my POV) 1 wolf, 1 ? and the rest V's.
That is counting me as a V on boog before my vote switch.
So my switch put me voting with 1 more perceived V, and I thought rong was the wolfiest of D1.
The fact that the reasons for my vote went against the grain of everyone else on that wagon should have kept me off of it, in retrospect.
***
It was my decision, and ultimately it was based on my perceptions.
I was influenced to reconsider my vote by my what ong (I perceive as V) was posting and daven's (also V) encouragement of me to follow my gut and vote for the wolfiest player - which is what I had been saying is the correct play, and I stand by that method, even though I was wrong about rong.
***
ong looking very V with his open on D2. He has def. drawn a line in the sand, and I'm reading that as super villagery.
He's pulled his vote from himself, and rascal hasn't posted anything to defend ong's opening accusaions... so that could be a development, or it could be that ong is getting more action from his vote on baud right now.
To your credit, you rescinded yourself much later than I would have guessed.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
There's a non-zero chance that BID says "trust me" to use a simple lie to cover up a more complex lie.
Agreed. You would need to establish a baseline first though.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Baseline is BID is a bad liar. This is something a bad liar would do... use ambiguity as a crutch.
How about you do what I think you can't fake as a W... give me one of those awesome BID reads posts.
Two or three of those and I'm guessing you'll be an open book.
Why haven't you done this yet?
I'll post it after my 'lover' accuses me of being a wolf, by bolding himself.
So you're saying that you won't do the single most villagery thing in your playbook unless you're under pressure?
Why?
And dude... If I think you're a wolf, I'm bolding YOU.
It's not like I need to pull the play ong used... his lover was unknown at the time.
it's actually better than your argument, which is that I'm a wolf with rascal because I'm protecting him by saying you're a villager, when I'm really protecting him by casting shade on you by saying you're 90% a villager. wat.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Here's the problem with what you're doing, Ong. You're blathering about a post I made that says I think you're almost certainly a villager, calling it wolfy, while ignoring things more blatantly wolfy -- like Boog's posts today and Luco's stealth vote for you based on absolutely nothing. It's hard to believe you want 100% villa cred coming off a game where you did something stupid as a wolf with the rationale that you'd never be so stupid to do that as a wolf.
Reassess all and average in new info with the old. Stop making mountains of molehills and stop fixating on the idea that you starting the push on Gabe makes Boog clear. It's frankly insane.
Look at how clean the Boog wagon is FFS. This is another big piece of info you are ignoring.
Messing with you is more fun.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Villagers:
Ongbonga - I think I tone read him better than anyone and I read V this time around
Wufwugy - I believe he was being sincere about his argument for reveal
Baudib - I believe he is honest about not being as interestedhttp://cdncache-a.akamaihd.net/items...rrow-10x10.png this game and I think a small part of that is because he's a villager
a500lbgorilla - He was the first player to side with me on the reveal topic
Fence:
Monstrman
LilRascal
Hoppy
Bigred
Keybored
Daven
MMM - His late D1 voting and "I'll protect gabe" stuff has me second guessing myself
Wolves:
Boog - Voting patterns and mentions earlier
Luco - Simple gut feeling
That's a very much redundant concept in this format. What the fuck do I want with village cred when I'm prepared to lynch my partner, thus resulting in my own death?Quote:
It's hard to believe you want 100% villa cred
fwiw I had to edit my most previous post because it was littered with color coding errors
FYPQuote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I don't believe your self lynch to be indicative of you being a villager at all. If anything, it feels more like something a typical crazy ong wolf would try to get away with, because that's what crazy wolf ong enjoys doing.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Ninja BID!!!
Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
I appreciate the amount of work you put into this game sometimes, particularly the graphs and charts.
A couple of games ago you did the same thing. It was the chart where there were a bunch of red dots, I believe. Do you remember that?
Can someone remind us if MMM was a wolf or a villager that game?
You think baud was honest in being disinterested... so you're reading baud as disinterested?Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
:shock:
Drews gut says I'm a wolf and mojo is suspect.
Drew your gut stinks like this monkey's finger
http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view2/107...er-smell-o.gif
Way to ignore the rest of the post for an attempt at more villa cred for something that essentially means nothing when you are currently voting for a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I'm being honest about everything actually.
and yes disinterested me is still ~ top poster in the game.
Baudib seems to be trending in the right direction.
I am also a fan of stirring the pot
rescind lynch wuf
Daven, Boog, Wuf:
It's about 100% that 1 of you and very likely 2 of you are wolves. If one of you is a villager, you have the most information on the correct lynch for today. I'm a villager, help me lynch the other 2.
yesQuote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
I don't care. I think my partner is a wolf. Lynch me and watch me not care.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Your posts this game lack substance compared to your previous games.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
I think you would be more insightful if you were a villager.
-.-Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Baudib I don't think I have ever disagreed with you as much as I have this game.
You post a lot as a wolf too.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
At the very least you're taking a hard stance on some wolf leans I just want you to tunnel one into the ground in a convincing enough fashion before I call you a villager for sure.
yeah, I still have Drew as the best villager in the game.
Yes please give me village cred. Pleeeeease. I'll use it to get my buddy lynched. Noone would ever expect a wolf to do that.Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
I think Drews reasoning to call baudib a villager makes sense given some thought about things.
I can see a reason why baudib would be less interested as a villager than as a wolf and I think drew sees it too
I think the more important issue is whether you laughed at the monkeyQuote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
And this is why I won't bat an eye if you flip villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
I don't see his contribution today as less interested. He's right in the thick of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrman
:humility:Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
(I laughed. a few times. I might go back and do it again.)
You mean you will bat an eye right?Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Oh yeah that's partly why I'm feeling like he's more likely a villager now, toi. I meant at the beginning of the game I definitely got that disinterested vibe from him and I guess I just often attribute that to wolfiness.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Prolly a leak
No.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Even if you're a villager, lynching you is the right decision because you haven't contributed anything.
It's not about being results oriented. It's about making the right decision with the information we have.
I don't think he's a villager. But him and rilla are two of the three most game solvey people d2, it would be madness to lynch them in this fieldQuote:
Originally Posted by monstrman
Wuf was definitely being sincere in his argument, but it's role neutral for him. It would be like, if somehow an aspect of the game could be described in terms of free market economics, he would be able to go on and on about it without concern for his role.Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I'm good with rascal or Daven today.
Not wolves: BID, Ong
Likely not wolves: Luco, MMM, Baudib, keybored
Fuck 'em: bigred, boog, hoopy, monstr, rascal, daven, wuf
bomb threat on campus. car parked next to building, probably suspicious package inside as the campus is cleared and they sectioned the whole thing off as we were leaving
had a bomb threat on the sister campus like two weeks ago. i think a guy may have been arrested on campus over it, but im not sure if that was the reason
have free time today now so can actually thoroughly read through the last ten pages
...what? How can you think baudib is game solvey and not likely to be a villager?Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
All the stances on reveal are fairly role neutral because it's a safe topic of discussion.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
I agree with this.
I have seen him drive thought and lead as a wolf. His play this game is similar to the wolf game where I was cursed and he topped the post count with his pondering.Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrman
And I disagree with most of his wolf picks.
Hard to argue with this.Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
It just blows having to grasp at straws in early-game.
once again, we've never been villagers together except for a half a game day in the Anon game, so you have literally no baseline to compare (if you're a villager).Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
these are nothing but empty words while you continue to vote for a villager.Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
if you were a wolf in this spot and know rascal is a villager, then offering to off yourself to get rid of 3 villagers is a +EV gambit
problem is I think you're a villager and you're still taking a really low EV line here.
WW aside,Quote:
Originally Posted by baudib
You should be pushing small edges, not matter how small.
I want to lynch luco or boog this day. Preferably luco.
I will be joining you in this fine endeavor sir.Quote:
Originally Posted by Luco
Last game when you were on the block on D1, you were in at deadline to make a clutch vote (Same time as Luco, but he got all the cred.).Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
Why you give up this time?
Why didn't you vote for anyone yesterday?Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
Wait... maybe you weren't on the block? Either way, you were there at deadline... making waves.
@Hoopy: Your read on wuf is of utmost importance this day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
+1, this so much
What about wuf's read on hoopy?
Vanishing about 9 hours before the deadline is actually a non-wolf thing to do in that spot with this setup. Voting was quite close.Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrman
Are you based in the US?
Monstr's a villager almost always here -- this makes the Boog lynch significantly less appealing.