If JKDS flips wolf, it looks terrible for MMM, Ong, Hoopy, and myself, in that order.
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If JKDS flips wolf, it looks terrible for MMM, Ong, Hoopy, and myself, in that order.
If nobody moves or votes rest of day, JKDS is L-1 for first to reach 2 votes.
The Dhuber jump does not protect JKDS and it gives both Hoopy & Ong a free pass.
-Hoopy no longer has to uphold his vow to hit JK at end of day.
-Ong could get shitfaced and forget how to get home.
Something smells funny.
I fucked that up. If JKDS flips wolf, it looks bad for:
MMM
Dhub
Hoopy
then myself.
I don't believe keybored has given a strong opinion. Put ong in there where you'd like.
My reads
JKDS:
I've seen nothing to change my opinion on JKDS. He's not been hunting, he's been reacting. His arguments are thin and circumstantial. He sneaks tidbits in like "if ong is vil, then ong would ..." and treats them like they are irrefutable facts, when they are plainly opinions... and even as strong reads, there is a probability that they're wrong.
JKDS sees no nuance in other people - calling the same behavior villagery for him, but wolfy for someone else. This kind of dichotomy is the opposite of logic.
JKDS's arguments are heavy in appeals to emotion.
JKDS has repeatedly gone into the "cornered canine" ITT.
dhubermex:
I think dhub's game looks too obviously wolfy to be genuinely wolfy... but I could be leveling myself.
ongbonga:
I thought ong was right about JKDS, and therefore right about 3 wolves, but if he comes down on me, then he's seriously ignoring a preponderance of evidence in my favor, and latching onto the small inconsistencies that are unavoidable for a working villager. I know he's a strong player, so this argument doesn't hold for BID, keybored, dhubs - BID has bad history, and the others have no history with me, so I can't judge their skill.
It's hard to see the ong/JKDS as W-W, but it's worth a re-read.
BankItDrew
I could fall either way. He's playing this game very differently than his usual all spew all the time style.
Hoopy:
I really don't know. I want to say V. All of the villagers have been working to figure me out... don't see an easy choice. Hoopy seems quite content with sitting on me as V... which stands out.
Keybored:
There is so vastly much evidence that he's a villager that if he's W, he's fooled me wholly. gg
^^^ well scratch that...Hoopy just hit JK. I'll STFU now.
God damn it I want to lynch dhub so bad. How has he survived this long?
FWIW, I want to remind people that MMM is by far my strongest village lean. In case shit happens...
Nope.
If JKDS flips wolf, then yes.
If we get a lynch, it's wolf killing time. So, if I don't wake up tomorrow...
It means I wasn't protected & the wolf(s) is in JKDS/Dhuber.
Hoopy & BID & Ong are straight village, y'all.
MMM could be the other.
Okay then, I'll cast the deciding vote. There's more than enough evidence on the last two pages alone to point to my Village status and I gave everyone plenty of time to come up with something better (or start a BID wagon). No takers.
I'd say the chances JKDS is a wolf is right at 50/50... so here's the fourth vote needed.
lynch JKDS
If he flips wolf then what a great wolf he was. If he flips Village then as he said there should be enough info out there now on who to lynch next day, but I'm sure at least one villager will team up with the wolves (if there are indeed 2 remaining after this) and nominate me.
Well that's it then.
Now we wait for wufmod, fingers crossed.
Baited breath
How does JKDS flipping either way look bad for me? I practically gave my lynch away to try to get a wolf to hop on board (no takers), had pretty much "sealed" his fate as Keybored put it earlier in the day when vote was 3-2-1, then rescinded to put it in a wolf's hands, but he didn't take the bait (or wasn't online at the time).
It troubles me that both you & Keybored are trying to "lead" the thread. I don't believe either of your opinions are that qualified when it comes to this match (unless you're both wolves, then well played obv). I think you're a wolf, and the other one is somewhere in JKDS/MMM. Perhaps Keybored is in the mix and maybe Ong... I'm sincerely confused because there are posts by each player now that look good or look bad. The Hoopy rescind is the clearest Villager lean so far (in my opinion).
Aroooooooooo. Lame.
:highfive:
:goldstar:
:lol:
Now bring us a save tonight, ghost angels.
Whew...that was crazy! We woulda been hurting. Nuthin but love, JK!
Sup. So what did I miss?
Oh. BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Jokes on you guys, now i get to troll the dead thread.
Last one is drew, ong for mvp, 100% ownage.
Guys, I've changed my mind. MMM is a villager!
It might not be drew, it could be keybored. Remember jkds said that thing where keith was 2/3? Well maybe jkds knew keith was 2/3, and he slipped.
Whoaaaa Wilbur...wait for the buzz to wear off b4 spewing crap. We ALL hated on JK today!
:)
I think rilla was trying to help his wolf buddy by asking a challenging question in the physics monkey thread.
@wuf: unfair advantage to their team fersher!!
So is that 4 on jkds?
Yes
Dat JKDS be all dead n snazz
MMM
The Living
Dhuber
Ong
BID
Hoops
Keybored
The Dead
A crazy, themed game (or ur mam)
baudib
keith
rilla
daven
gabe
luco
jkds
The Village
5 villagers
1 wolves
4 ghost angels!
Night 4 now. Gots till 2:30 PM PST peeps. Smoke em if you got em!
LOLNOPE
MMM
The Living
Dhuber
Ong
BID
Hoops
Keybored
The Dead
A crazy, themed game (or ur mam)
baudib
keith
rilla
daven
gabe
luco
jkds
The Village
4 villagers
2 wolves
4 ghost angels!
Night 4 now. Gots till 2:30 PM PST peeps. Smoke em if you got em!
Wait, WTF?
Fuuuuuuucccccccckkkkkkkk!!!!!!!
JKDS with the master troll?
seriously, WTF? my F5 is broken.
If JKDS is vil, then he hung me... and w/o a save tonight it's gg wolves.
Why in the hell did Luco die?
hahaha ownd
MMM is looking like shit all of a sudden
huber is a wolf guyz
jesus fucking christ when r u gonna get on this
I know... you have to take me down now. There's no way around it.
I was wrong on gabe, I was wrong on JKDS, and I spent all day gunning for JKDS.
If there's no save tonight, then I'm done, it's 2V/2W and it's done.
Even if it's a save tonight, village mislynch on me means another save must happen... which triggers the revive, but it's the only path now.
Tosser. Now we get to waste typing energy by arguing about whose reactions were fake and whose weren't.
Oh no he di-int!!
Who does that?
This game sux.
I want my $$ back...
I doubt a wolf laughs in the thread. drew looks good to me. Anyone else, well it's not even worth discussing really. Maybe mojo and doobs didn't know and started digging. Or maybe they did that because they thought it would look good. idk.
You guys should just do what I do from now on. Here's my dhuber impression:
I'M A VILLAGER
Just get on my back and I'll take you to the promised land.
I'm going to bed. This game is making me tilt right now.
I have gotten lots of questions from all angles about the revive.
If it happens, it would be on the night after the second successful save, and it doesn't include an auto-block. If a lynch causes something like 2v2, then a revive (or block) that night does nothing to raise the numbers back to 3v2. Obviously this means a revive is unlikely at this point, but it technically can still happen
Some may not be happy with this, as I didn't say it explicitly in my original writeup of the rules, but we'll have to talk about it after the game. The rule as it is now was always the rule I was going to use since the beginning of the game. After the game I can explain why the rules appeared to change (it was more like what I told you about the rules changed, not the rules as I intended them). The one rule that definitely did change was allowing just one revive instead of two. I should never have said two were possible and I changed that as soon as I thought it through
I'm fine with this as long as you had the intent to make the game as fair as possible.
What wouldn't be cool is if you changed the game because at the time of the change, things had swung, throughout the course of the game, to one side or the other, with the intent to bring it back closer to 50/50.
When my wolf buddy sent in a nom, then i sent in a diff nom, and gabe nullified both
Well thanks JKDS for the tip of the hat and "psych" on the way out the door. So now we're looking at BID/Keybored team as most likely wolves?
invalidated them? meh im coinflipping between the two unless one of the wolves was consistently the lead wolf, in which case im ignoring the vote of the non-lead
gotta admit though that was fucking funny and not too undeserved. you went on a cruise to jupiter or some shit during that game, returning only to say "LOLOLOLOLOL AM I LYNCHED YET"
I can be redic/dumb sometimes
Wat's a flow chat
This is precisely what it comes down to. Four legit reactions and two fake ones. JKDS' last act as a living Villager was the psych-out and it simplifies things. Worst-looking reactions in my opinion are those of BID and Ong. Not a lot can be read from MMM, Hoopy or Keybored reactions.
I say we hit the BID wagon as soon as next day starts.
How do BID/Ong's reactions fare worst/wolfish of all?
Other than further your BID objective.
Please elaborate...
BID says "sick"... why would he say that? He knows JKDS howl is a lie.
ong looks bad because he didn't dislocate his shoulder by fistpumping too hard. Serious pwnage if he was right on 3/3 in 3 days.
I missed that he cleared me in his final post. Maybe I don't have to punch him and wuf collectively in the face for the emotional rollercoaster of this page. Just wuf. And wuf's mom.
I feel like it has to be ong, but wtf? I was so sure it was JKDS... so.
I can has a break, now?
by "him" in the 3rd part, I mean JKDS.
and by break, I mean nap... I mean real sleep.
Oh wait, I think I've solved the "psyche out" riddle, Dhuber...
Bahahaha looks a lot like Baaaaahhhh which, everyone knows, is the sound a sheep makes. And sheep (as taught to us at the earliest age) are the favorite pickins of wolves; aka, their arch nemesis. Hence the term, wolf in sheep's clothing. And since that's all subliminal stuff we have jumbled up in our noggins, only a person who IS a wolf but PRETENDING to be a sheep would make such a Freudian slip.
Do I get a gold star? Or just a lynch nom ahead of BID?
How many minutes after the nk reveal are you gonna wait to make your lynch nom this time?
JKDS left us with a trap for the wolves (heavy village lean, kid).
So, what if he caught someone?
Certainly Dhubs thinks so.
Let's see...
1hr 36mins passed between the lynch vote and Wuf's reveal. During which...
There were 22 posts but 3 were from JKDS, so strike them and I didn't count Wuf.
Of those 19 posts among us living:
MMM = 6
Doob = 5
Ong = 3
Hoopy = 2
KeyB = 2
BID = 1
Of those 19 posts:
-13 were gg/hi-5/happy-slappy/jungle love stuff completely off the wolf path.
-6 were game thread down to business affairs
So, who was having fun and who was back to work?
Of the 6 posts hitting the bricks:
-4 were from Dhuber
-1 was Ong
-1 was MMM
Ong's game post was a 1-liner mostly off topic: "Last one is drew, ong for mvp, 100% ownage."
MMM's game post was a 6-post quote followed by: "You wanna just howl now, BID?"
Dhuber's 4 game posts were straight up on the hunt using several quotes (old/new), full paragraphs, etc., etc.
Did the brilliant JKDS trap work?
IDK cuz all 6 of us said Whoopy! Which means the wolves sniffed out the ruse and played along.
But the numbers clearly show that 2 of us didn't act in the same manner as the rest of us...
MMM was uncomfortably playing along a bit too much.
Dhoob was completely opposite; nose down, on the fucking warpath.
lol nice. As it happened, I did fistpump. And as it happens, I'm pretty sure I fistpump as either alignment.Quote:
ong looks bad because he didn't dislocate his shoulder by fistpumping too hard. Serious pwnage if he was right on 3/3 in 3 days.
When I bahahaha, that's where I fistpump. Shortly after I notice jkds posts "joke's on you guys", and that's where I decide to wait for the flip.
It's interesting that you've found a reason to turn on me already. Having drew as a wolf for saying "sick" is pretty thin too. His reaction to the town flip was to laugh in the thread. I'm not so sure a wolf does that.
mojo for sure, probably doobs too. He's preparing to turn on me and drew too.
Funny post, ong. Did you forget that JKDS final post was that I'm a villager?
I haven't decided what to do in this game. I haven't done my daily read-through yet, so I just don't know.
I was so pos. JKDS was wolf, and I was wrong, so I have to seriously re-think everything.
Since my reasoning for thinking JKDS was wolf was initially inspired by the thought that there is def a wolf between ong/JKDS, yes, it stands to reason I'm going to be giving you a long, hard look.
***
I'm right fatigued over this game at this point. I battle with just giving up, but that's just self-loathing and weariness.
Village needs to play 100% to have any hope of winning, and my brain is compromised.
If you're vil after all, ong, then you must appreciate that we HAVE to look you up today.
jkds saying you're a villager as he goes doesn't mean you can't be a wolf, you obviously know that. jkds said I'm a villager. Awesome we're both confirmed villagers, right? Obviously not.
And if you're a villager, then you should be looking up everyone today.Quote:
If you're vil after all, ong, then you must appreciate that we HAVE to look you up today.
Important point...
If there's a kill tonight, we're 3 vs 2, majority is 3, and the first bad vote can be seized uopn.
If it's 4 vs 2, majority is 4 and it takes two bad votes.
It's pretty important that people are not throwing their votes around recklessly from here on out.
I still think dhuber has to be a wolf here.
Regardless nobody should vote tomorrow until we've had a good discussion.
JKDS was adamant on me not being lynched. I thought that was going to be a tactic of JKDS-wolf to bury me in suspicion once he flipped the wrong side, but now that he's confirmed Villager I'm trying to read into what that meant. He said it had to be him on MMM... so do we further scrutinize MMM going into next day? That's what I'm going to do... but I have have two confirmed incorrect reads (Luco/JKDS) already. I suppose it's probably +EV for the Village right now that I don't have the WW-cred to lead a wagon, although I still think BID is a solid lynch.
There are so many pros & cons to each player now. I wish I was better at this game (maybe I'll take coaching lessons from some of the vets once this is over). When I modded I noticed a high percentage of reads are wrong regardless of a player's ability, but also noticed that there are certain players who pick up on post-tells in a way that I don't. In order to have a better chance I've got to put someone (probably two) in the solid Villager camp... I have one so far, Hoopy... so I'm going to go along with him. Lol watch me be wrong on that too.
Perhaps my best bet is to go back again and put together a list of 2-3 players who known Villagers were nearly 100% sure were Villagers and go from there. I WANT to read into the reactions... but honestly... any one of the reactions could be genuine/false. Ong's on the surface appears that most forced for sure (it was the last one too)... but that doesn't necessarily amount to anything. We'll be at 3 vs. 2 once daytime hits if there's not a save.
That's what I'm going to do... get a list of 2 who I think are Villagers and go along with them unless they're aiming for me... in which case it's going to be game over for Village. Does ANYONE remaining see the obvious Village moves I've attempted to make to communicate my alignment in ways that would be nearly impossible for a wolf to do? Certainly a wolf with my limited amount of skills? If so, that's our only chance of keeping me alive during daytime imo.
IF the rilla vote clears hoopy and BID, then the only way it doesn't clear me is if you NOW buy the JKDS argument I've reposted many times.
JKDS's call on me as vill was his dying breath.
If Hoopy, BID, and me come out of the mix as possible wolves, then dhubs, ong, key are left.
My gut is a liar, but says it's obv that key is V.
dhubs and ong left.
but again... I need to read through. I had ong as V all day yesterday, and the night before.
***
My encouragement of getting BID to howl was a 0 EV gambit to get BID-wolf to spaz claim for the glory of a howl.
JKDS/BID is clearly a JKDS controlled wolf pack, in which BID's flashes of insight (bad, bad reasoning accusations) could be coming from JKDS in wolf-chat.
Problem is... JKDS would be all, "STFU, BID; they don't know shit." if he's still in wolf-chat.
Then JKDS posted again, and the gambit was over. If he's posting here, he's posting in wolf-chat.
Now that JKDS has flipped V, the gambit is pointless.
***
Was it ong who kept saying that dhubs is too engaged with known wolves to be a wolf?
I don't know. If so, then it will give some weight to a ong/dhubs argument.
Holy crap, Doobs....You've flipped AA's on MMM! I'm impressed. So, MoMo...uh, what gives?
JKDS was big on clearing Hoopy & BID. He thought Keybored was final wolf. At the time of post #875, he thought MMM was "obvious wolf" but retracted. The only other suspicious player in his mind was Ong.
Keybored being "impressed" with anything I do in WW could be a tell. Lol did I have it right days ago with the Keybored/Ong team?
So if I go by JKDS-Villager's reads and throw in Keith-Villager's insight... it's probably Ong/Keybored. Most definitely I should side with Hoopy/BID then... the choice is then whether to add MMM or Ong to my camp. Going by JKDS' "dying breath" inclines me to add MMM into the fold despite JKDS' previous read, because he did leave plenty of wiggle room for an Ong-wolf possibility.
I'm reading through d2 again.
I start by slapping down a rilla vote. Next vote is gabe voting for keyb, and keyb responds in kind. Then mojo jumps on me, citing his ong baud = v-v or w-w read.
rilla turns up and his reaction is to vote for doober. Both gabe and luco, two people who can read rilla, are villagers, so rilla is probably thinking that I've exposed him. I don't think he expects doober to get lynched, I think rilla himself expects to get lynched. He knows I had him bang to rights. So I don't think rilla's doober vote clears doober. On the contrary I think it implicates him, rilla could simply be trying to make it look like he's deflecting onto a weaker wagon, thus giving doobs village cred.
I'm unimpressed with rilla's response to me and say this is the same rilla I was wolfing with a few games back. Wolves know rilla is in trouble at this stage.
hoopy makes a comment about doober, luco defends him. keyb comes in swinging for hoopy.
More ong-rilla, luco votes rilla. daven votes jkds, giving the wolves a viable counterwagon. I hop on to put pressure on jkds. luco follows.
ok here's mojo now with his rilla vote. He clearly chooses rilla over jkds. This does look good I'll admit. But it doesn't make sense that mojo considers this a lock villager tell for him, while considering me wolfy despite a very similar post from me where I make it clear that I prefer to lynch baudib than keith.
keyb goes for jkds. This looks bad.
jkds swings for me. at this stage jkds is way ahead, then it's me, then rilla.
hoopy hops on rilla. Now the tide turns. hoopy looks outstanding here.
luco hops on too. Next up is drew, but he's reluctant, then finally I show up. rilla is done.
keyb votes doober, he kinda look better here because trying to save rilla is futile, the wolves will be resigned to losing rilla by now, I would imagine a wolf will be more self concious of how it looks to be trying to spark another wagon at this stage.
rilla flips. boom.
So... mojo does look good, but no better than I look for swinging for baudib on d1 instead of keith. Unless he's gonna argue that wolves wanted a dead wolf d1, which I don't really want to go over again.
drew hopping on felt reluctant. If he's a wolf he would expect me to turn up and vote him, so I don't feel like drew's vote is as clean as some people are thinking.
hoopy looks very good. doobs was voting for me all day.
doobs drew mojo, it's two from those three.
Also interested in why you would you "those" instead of "these." Could that be a POV slip? I'm going to stop posting for now but the roles are clarifying themselves. Keybored slipped with that "impressed" post... clear as day.
Those/these is a pov slip? Wow you're reaching hard.
Uh, yup...It didn't take a genius to put two quotes together. It's called being facetious FFS. You think I'm trying to butter up to you now just cuz you've put my name down? JKDS' death did not clear you of jack squat, so I've got no reason to change my position. Sheesh, BID and I have already loaded up the Dhoober wagon and it sets out after the NK. Hoopy looks like he'll be rolling along with us too...
Nearly a thousand posts floating around out there/their/they're and this is what you got?
But I see you're poking a lot of ppl today and that's admirable.
But it means you've got nothing and that's unimpressive.
Or it could mean you're desperate.
Or you could be feeling that the noobs (you/I) are vulnerable right now and you're trying to tarnish me.
It's cool. Vote your conscience when the time comes.
I called out JKDS hard, he responded by calling me a wolf. He knew he was a villager, so a hard attack on him is surely going to make him think it's coming from a wolf, and well worth an accusation.
This whole "fighting to survive is evidence of wolfiness" is so wrong. I don't see why a villager backed into a corner has less reason to fight, especially when the vote is so clutch.
Also, what am I to do? If I answer key, then I'm "scrambling to defend myself", and if I don't, then I'm ignoring him.
***
The chart benefits everyone, but the dead thread most.
Wuf's rule change complicated the near-certainty of the revive, and I wanted to get that out there to correct myself.
This is important because it clarifies whether or not the wolves intended to drop rilla, and whether or not the votes on rilla clear anyone at all. My argument is that there has been no evidence that the dead thread was acting in such a way to prevent a revive on N1 and N2, when the wolves had control of the dead thread. Which means that the killing of rilla was a villager-lead event and not a wolf-lead event.
This is further supported by the flip of JKDS as V.
Since the JKDS-rilla vote was V-W, and the flip went to the W, then wolves would not be in pivotal roles in the lynch of rilla.
That easily clears hoopy, Luco (RIP), and probably BID.
It's hard to see ong/BID (as W/W) jumping to rilla. At the point when Hoopy/Luco jump to rilla, the vote is tied at 3 (me, hoopy, luco on rilla / daven, keybored, ong on JKDS, with the tie on JKDS.)
BID's vote was on keybored, and the day was ending soon. BID moving to rilla puts 4 on rilla, 3 on JKDS, and nails down rilla.
ong's vote lands on rilla. keybored's vote lands on dhubs.
The argument JKDS made about why I'm NOT cleared in this if he's a V didn't make sense. It's a large part of why I stayed on him. He kept failing to adequately explain how I'm a W and he's a V in that vote.
No one has made a solid argument for my involvement in the rilla vote casting me as W. JKDS's best attempt has holes in it that I blasted wide open. Anyone saying I'm W needs to answer my response to JKDS's argument. Also, they need to explain why the final post of a mislynchee is worth discrediting.
Am I wrong that it was a 3/3 tie when BID flipped to rilla?
That changes it.
Night phase totally night phased
The LivingMMM
Dhuber
Ong
BID
Hoops
Keybored
The Dead
A crazy, themed game (or ur mam)
baudib
keith
rilla
daven
gabe
luco
jkds
The Village
4 villagers
2 wolves
3 ghost angels!
Day 5 now. Gots till Monday, suckas. 4 to lynch!
Nice.
Simple theory, you voted rilla for cover and to make sure you didn't avoid fellow wolves. Maybe you planned to vote for someone else later, maybe not. But you got stuck.
The fact that it went from JKDS(4) rilla(1) to rilla(4) JKDS(3) so quickly (30mins) put you in a tricky spot. If you switched and rilla died anyway then you look bad. Not switching meant rilla was likely gone.
However it's equally possible you're a villager who stayed on a wolf, right now I'm not sure.