All limper here are fishy's.
Villain is 30/24/8 cbet=71 , he likes raising cbets ip/oop , def wanna be aggro , earlier he raised river on me on a Tc4s5h2hTh board after min-ra bu, i flatted in BB w/ATo , i lead every street , he bluff-shoved river w/ total air.
I'm def not ra'ing here pre for obv reasons.
IS not donking here a mistake ? Flop is dry but i figured these guys even betting a 3 .
skip to river: should I be overbetting river vs. a guy like this?
And given reads im not sure whether calling/shoving is best?
River:($0.48, 2 players) K:heart: Hero bets $0.32, CO raises to $1.32????
11-13-2012, 07:19 AM
Cobra_1878
Stats on any of the other players?
Fold pre. Could quite easily be dominated and you're in worst position possible, OOP to 4 players.
Donk the flop.
As played - I think this might be a fold.
11-13-2012, 08:43 AM
xptboy
I wouldn't fold this pre when you only need to complete the SB...
donk the flop
as played fold to the raise, he prolly hit a better 2 pair with the king, something like K3 pr K5 lol possibly KJ too
11-13-2012, 08:44 AM
supa
Never folding QJ in a limped pot.
Raise pre. Bet the turn.
Maybe it's a definition thing but I don't think the term donking applies here.
11-13-2012, 08:57 AM
xptboy
Quote:
Originally Posted by supa
Maybe it's a definition thing but I don't think the term donking applies here.
donking is when you bet into the preflop raiser from OOP,
EDIT: oh wait, there was no preflop raiser so donking doesn't apply lol
11-13-2012, 12:06 PM
Cobra_1878
Quote:
Originally Posted by supa
Never folding QJ in a limped pot.
Raise pre. Bet the turn.
Maybe it's a definition thing but I don't think the term donking applies here.
Why not? I doubt we are ahead of many ranges and we are in a horrible position. Are we happy if we hit a Q high flop? What if we hit a J? KQ/KJ could be out there in a limped pot. We are happy to raise pre/cbet the flop...then what?
11-13-2012, 03:27 PM
supa
Cobra, how strong do you really think limping ranges are here? Put together some legit ranges, put them in pokerstove. We are never behind here.
11-13-2012, 05:49 PM
MadMojoMonkey
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cobra_1878
Why not? I doubt we are ahead of many ranges and we are in a horrible position. Are we happy if we hit a Q high flop? What if we hit a J? KQ/KJ could be out there in a limped pot. We are happy to raise pre/cbet the flop...then what?
Plug in your equity holding 72o in multi-handed pots against wide ranges, Cobra.
...
OK, so how bad can you possibly be from the SB?
Spoiler:
about 4% over all 5 board cards against 8 Villains playing ATC.
And the same scenario with your actual hand (QJo)?
Spoiler:
Come on man, do it yourself
Now: it's common to get odds up to 7:1 or 9:1 in limped pots from the SB
What odds do you need to nut-mine...?
Well, you can expect to flop 2 pair or better (which I'll call a nut hand for this discussion) with QJo about 5% of the time. This does NOT count when the flop comes AAQ, KKQ, AAJ or KKJ, but DOES count QTT and J88 type flops, as well as all QJx, AKT, KT9, and T98. Of course, QQQ, JJJ, QQJ, and QJJ are in there, but only comprise 0.1% of the flops.
With 5%, you need about 19:1 total equity.
You're getting 9:1 in this pot. that leaves (19 - 9 = ) 10*$0.02 = $0.20 more into a pot of $0.20. If you can't get this implied equity when you hit this flop with 2 pair or better, then you have fold equity that makes it even more profitable to widen your range SB.
Also, 6% of the time, you'll flop OESD (holding QJ or 54), sometimes with a pair to go with it.
11-13-2012, 06:16 PM
Cobra_1878
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
Plug in your equity holding 72o in multi-handed pots against wide ranges, Cobra.
...
OK, so how bad can you possibly be from the SB?
Spoiler:
about 4% over all 5 board cards against 8 Villains playing ATC.
And the same scenario with your actual hand (QJo)?
Spoiler:
Come on man, do it yourself
Now: it's common to get odds up to 7:1 or 9:1 in limped pots from the SB
What odds do you need to nut-mine...?
Well, you can expect to flop 2 pair or better (which I'll call a nut hand for this discussion) with QJo about 5% of the time. This does NOT count when the flop comes AAQ, KKQ, AAJ or KKJ, but DOES count QTT and J88 type flops, as well as all QJx, AKT, KT9, and T98. Of course, QQQ, JJJ, QQJ, and QJJ are in there, but only comprise 0.1% of the flops.
With 5%, you need about 19:1 total equity.
You're getting 9:1 in this pot. that leaves (19 - 9 = ) 10*$0.02 = $0.20 more into a pot of $0.20. If you can't get this implied equity when you hit this flop with 2 pair or better, then you have fold equity that makes it even more profitable to widen your range SB.
Also, 6% of the time, you'll flop OESD (holding QJ or 54), sometimes with a pair to go with it.
OK, wow. You have literally just shown me something that I had never EVER thought of. I lose so much money from the blinds, which I know is because I hate limping, but this just made me look at it a little differently.
When I get hands like this dealt to me in the SB, in a limped pot, I just think of the chances of somebody limping in with a hand that dominates me ( as I pointed out in this post ) and I just end up folding.
I think this is gonna be the next part of my game I work on.
Quality post.
11-13-2012, 06:53 PM
supa
lol cobra, are you ever going to do any of the work posters are asking you to do or continue being spoon fed?
11-13-2012, 06:55 PM
Cobra_1878
I do a lot of work away from the forum...I am not sure what makes you think I don't? I would say I spend more time studying/analyzing my game right now than actually playing.
11-13-2012, 06:59 PM
OngBonga
Calling pre is fine imo, raising isn't gonna be horrible either, but here I prefer to limp because I don't expect to see us HU and we're horribly oop. Folding pre is awful when we have 9:1 on our money with a 0.5bb call, I'm not folding any suited hand in this spot, so QJo is nearing the top of my calling range here. Lead the flop for sure, this is a limped pot and it's much more likely to check round than a raised pot.
11-13-2012, 07:07 PM
supa
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cobra_1878
I do a lot of work away from the forum...I am not sure what makes you think I don't? I would say I spend more time studying/analyzing my game right now than actually playing.
I guess it's the fact that you don't show you've done what people have asked. For posters to go out their way to help you and then have you not show some initiative is disheartening.
11-13-2012, 07:21 PM
supa
Quote:
Originally Posted by xptboy
donking is when you bet into the preflop raiser from OOP,
EDIT: oh wait, there was no preflop raiser so donking doesn't apply lol
Right. So back to definition, which is interesting I think.
In reality the BB was the last aggressor, so is it donking if we complete and then lead the flop?
11-13-2012, 07:28 PM
supa
Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
Calling pre is fine imo, raising isn't gonna be horrible either, but here I prefer to limp because I don't expect to see us HU and we're horribly oop. Folding pre is awful when we have 9:1 on our money with a 0.5bb call, I'm not folding any suited hand in this spot, so QJo is nearing the top of my calling range here. Lead the flop for sure, this is a limped pot and it's much more likely to check round than a raised pot.
I think factoring in fold equity and the fact that our hand plays well multiway makes this an easy raise pre. A huge part of all villains ranges will fold to a proper raise (4X + 1 for each limper) and if we do get calls we still have fold equity on the flop.
11-14-2012, 03:31 AM
rpm
i prefer calling pre. raising might be ok but i wouldn't do it personally because i'm too aggressive postflop to the point of being spewy. flop i think is a pretty clear lead for value.
not sure about the river. but i think raising is the worst of our options
11-14-2012, 06:45 AM
WeldPhaser
y
Quote:
Originally Posted by rpm
i prefer calling pre. raising might be ok but i wouldn't do it personally because i'm too aggressive postflop to the point of being spewy. flop i think is a pretty clear lead for value.
not sure about the river. but i think raising is the worst of our options
im not nearly as aggro as rpm , but im for just calling here basically cause generally oop' this is a fold for me pre', but created a limping range its just basically an avg of three of the fish(43/14): 66-22,A6s-A2s,K8s-K2s,Q9s-Q4s,J9s-J6s,T6s+,97s+,87s,A9o-A2o,KTo-K6o,QTo-Q8o,J8o+,T8o+. it could be a lot wore than this also we're about 53% vs. this range HU, 25% vs. the 4 of them
There are 44 combos of Qx we beat, only three we dont Q5s
I'm min-raising river to get villian to make crying call with just a K. He doesn't have set or AT. We would be raising preflop in CO with any pair or AT. I'm only afraid of kings up.
11-14-2012, 11:28 AM
DoubleJ
just out of interest, how would we feel about playing this hand if we change the BTN in Weld's OP to a competent Reg?
His overlimping range is going to be way narrower (small PPs, SCs, small AsXs, mebbe some SC1s) coz:
* he's not getting quite the odds that we're getting (even if he's confident that the blinds will complete/call) and
* he's going to be ISOing with his stronger holdings
We obv are getting the same odds to call, but Postflop he's going to be nut-mining like we are, only IP and to Sets and Flushes vs our 2Pairs and Straights
11-14-2012, 12:05 PM
OngBonga
Button doesn't matter now he's limped. We're still getting insane pot odds. Only thing that stops me limping is if I know the bb is going to auto-raise a limpfest, in which case I raise.
If we know button is nut mining (and by that I mean 2pr+) then we give him an appropriate range based on his actions, and assess our hand strength accordingly.
11-14-2012, 12:44 PM
MadMojoMonkey
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleJ
just out of interest, how would we feel about playing this hand if we change the BTN in Weld's OP to a competent Reg?
A "competent reg" at 4NL who limps the BTN? :o
11-14-2012, 12:57 PM
OngBonga
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
A "competent reg" at 4NL who limps the BTN? :o
If villains in this pot are really that bad, I wouldn't be surprised if a competent reg on the button could turn nearly any two into a +ev limp. I'd limp pretty much any baby suited connectors from button, including 23s 24s 35s etc, 22-66, JTo, 97s, T8s, A7o... there's so much we can happily limp from the button here if our post flop edge is large enough.
11-14-2012, 02:19 PM
DoubleJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey
A "competent reg" at 4NL who overlimps the BTN? :o
FYP
Well......what would you do in that spot, Mr 5-Hour Energy? :wink:
11-14-2012, 03:08 PM
seven-deuce
Quote:
Originally Posted by WeldPhaser
And given reads im not sure whether calling/shoving is best?
Raise pre imo. Without reads/history, fold. Given history that he tried to rep a ten or better before with air and you have him pegged as a fairly aggro in bad spots fish i'm calling but not over the moon about it, definitely not shoving here your just isolating yourself against the top of his range {Straights, sets etc}
11-14-2012, 06:23 PM
WeldPhaser
for double J,,
Thais is the quick range i gave him, equity wise its close, but IDK to honest. Im realy not feeling good here OOP
Equity Win Tie
BU 48.26% 47.46% 0.80% { 66-22, A6s-A2s, K8s-K6s, Q9s-Q8s, J9s-J8s, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o-A7o, K9o, QTo, JTo }
SB 51.74% 50.95% 0.80% { QJo }
11-14-2012, 06:43 PM
MadMojoMonkey
Quote:
Originally Posted by DoubleJ
FYP
Well......what would you do in that spot, Mr 5-Hour Energy? :wink:
sighfold
The bet is too large to call here. I expect to get bluffed sometimes, but I think river bets are heavily weighted to V-bets at micro-stakes. It just depends on what Villain considers a value hand.
I don't see TPTK here too often.
11-15-2012, 06:45 AM
seven-deuce
Villain has blatantly shown a) he doesn't have a clue what he's doing or b) he's a recreational player just playing for fun or a mix of both a+b. Trying to run a big river bluff at 4nl with complete air when been lead into for 3 streets says it all.
If this is a value raise you're beat without question, but this guy limped pre. What types of hands was he open raising and had he i'sod any limpers before? You need to answer that because if he was opening any 2paint cards etc and isolating with those hands then we can't rule them out but they become alot less likely.
I expect this guy to limp behind most PP's also Ax suited Ax off suited connectors 1 gappers etc.
Let's start with the easy bit, the reason for not shoving: We simply aren't folding out any better hands and nothing worse is calling.
Reasons for calling then: He chose a terrible spot to bluff on the river before with air so we know hes capable of bluffing, he limped the only value hands i can see him having here is AT 9T 33 55 some K5 K3suited possibly. Depending on how bad you think villain is is he likely to think a lesser hand than QJ is the nuts? hands like 35s J5s J3s Q5s Q3s even KT? If so calling seems more appealing. Then add in a few stone cold bluffs as well it becomes even more appealing to call.
He may be tilted from previous bluff and trying to get back at you and pull off a successful bluff and think raising big is cheaper than shoving if he gets called or the flipside of that is he would shove to put max pressure on you if he was bluffing which makes this more likely to be for value. Ultimately you're the one at the table with the reads and a feel for the game flow and have to make the decision.
Reasons for folding: If this is a value raise you're just handing your opponent $1.00 (25bb) with 0% equity to satisfy your curiosity not a winning play imo.
Personally though all things considered i'd call.
11-16-2012, 03:31 AM
daven
limp pre is fine, folding pre is ok too. Raising is weird cos sizing and schooling cause problems oop with Q hi
pot-fold flop
pot-fold turn as played
fold river as played.
11-16-2012, 05:00 AM
DoubleJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
...schooling...
"Schooling"? What is it, please, the "Schooling"?
11-16-2012, 07:56 AM
DoubleJ
OK - scratch that; i googled it.
would appreciate some Cliff Notes, though...
11-16-2012, 08:35 AM
celtic123
Great QJo debate. Enlightening
Arent we overlooking were OOP for the rest of the hand.
