Top two pair vs river aggression

Villain is 35/4 over 70 hands, 5.75 AF.
There's a note: "Catches nut straight and shoves 15x on river".


OnGame - €0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

UTG: €5.30
CO: €5.98
Hero (BTN): €4.84
SB: €11.55
BB: €5.25

SB posts SB €0.02, BB posts BB €0.05

Pre Flop: (€0.07) Hero has K:heart: 9:heart:

fold, CO calls €0.05, Hero raises to €0.20, fold, fold, CO calls €0.15

Flop: (€0.47, 2 players) K:diamond: 9:diamond: 3:spade:
CO bets €0.30, Hero raises to €0.80, CO calls €0.50

Turn: (€2.07, 2 players) 4:spade:
CO bets €0.30, Hero raises to €1.10, CO calls €0.80

River: (€4.27, 2 players) 3:club:
CO bets €3.88 and is all-in

Hero?


Villain stats and that note tell me he's pretty clueless. He also bets the same amount on flop and turn, wich doesn't make a lot of sense.
The note is a single episode, so I don't know if he's one of those villains who always shove when they hit something big.

I tend to put him on a lot of Kx and I'm pretty sure he'd have re-pushed flop with K3.
KK should be in his minuscule pfr range.
Not sure about his line with 99 and 33.

Again, can any good player find a valid reason to fold here?

I also think the turn raise should be bigger.

Quote:

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I also think the turn raise should be bigger.

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Need to look at the flop raise first. How much equity does he have with various draws and what pot odds are you offering? Will he pay more?

I'm happy to call the river.

1.5 minimum on turn, call/shove

Hero calls the river.

Hero is so far ahead of Villain's pre-flop range after the flop. Only KK, 99 or 33 are ahead of Hero's hand at this point (almost definitely not KK with no PFR or 3-bet). Broadway cards have a pair and/or gut shot draws on this board, plus all Ax and Kx diamond flush draws. All of which are in Villain's range. (CPFR stat would be a little useful to narrow pre-flop range.) With all of this, Villain's C-bet means nothing with 5.75 AF. Raise on the flop is obv. (I'd have raised to $0.90, personally)

Turn is a brick and Villain re-C-bets. Usually, Villain has a piece of the board, but nothing they're confident about. A raise here is likely to take down the pot. As you noted, a raise to $1.75 - $2.00 would have been my choice.

Villain calls turn bet? Villain either thinks we're bluffing a draw and that his Kx, 9x, A3, or 43s hand is good, or that we have Kx, 9x, or 3x and his draw is big enough to take us down when it hits. (Or the lucky SOB has a set and is playing Hero like a fiddle.)

Unfortunate 3 on the river. Villain knows that not much in Hero's pre-flop range has a 3 in it. Villain might feel pot committed and that his only way to win is to bluff. Villain shoves.
Hero has top 2 pair and great showdown value. With so much in Villain's range that misses, and the weak bet on the turn, Hero calls.

Consider putting more info in your notes with some shorthand. I do something like this. I just abbreviated a bunch of stuff in obv. ways to allow me more time watching the action and less time taking notes.

limp c 4x OOP, Kd9d3s, D-bet 3/4 c PS r, 4s, bet 1/7 (same $) c 1/2 r, 3c, shove ~PSB, showed: XxXx.

Which reads:
Limped pre, called a 4xbb bet out of position, flop came Kd9d3s, he donk-bet 3/4 pot and called a pot-sized raise. Turn came 4s, he bet 1/7 pot (same bet as D-bet on flop) and called a 1/2 pot sized raise. River came 3c and he shoved about pot sized bet. Showed XxXx when called down.

Yes, notes are something I need to put more work on.
I tend to note something at every showdown, but it surely needs to be more organized.

And thanks for the replies.
3/3 hero calls, wich is what I did:


River: (€4.27, 2 players) 3:club:
CO bets €3.88 and is all-in, Hero calls €2.74 and is all-in

CO shows K:club: Q:diamond: (Two Pair, Kings and Threes) (Pre 69%, Flop 21%, Turn 7%)
Hero shows K:heart: 9:heart: (Two Pair, Kings and Nines) (Pre 31%, Flop 79%, Turn 93%)
Hero wins €9.21



A lot of villains on my site (I suppose everywhere at the microstakes) tend to play a very weak/passive style and suddenly increase aggression when they catch something big.
Aggression as in going all-in 30x on the river after limp/check/check on previous streets.

Wich is why I'm never happy when I see big bets after a very weak line.

Oh well, I just need to keep working on ranges and villains profiling.

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Originally Posted by Shizu

Yes, notes are something I need to put more work on...it surely needs to be more organized...

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Harrington suggests organizing notes like this:

Notes unrelated to Specific Hands

• Number of tables this opponent plays at once
  
• His standard Buy-In amount
  
• Whether or not he auto-rebuys

Preflop Notes

• Whether this opponent Limp/Calls
  
• How this opponent makes and responds to 3Bets
  
• How this opponent makes and responds to 4Bets
  
• How this opponent makes and responds to preflop All-Ins

Postflop notes which apply generally to all actions after the flop

• How strong a hand does this player need to bet or call a series of bets all the way to the river
  
• What do unusual bet sizes mean for this player

Flop Notes

• How strong a hand does this player need to make or call an All-In bet on the flop
  
• Do they slow-play big hands?
  
• How do they play draws?
  
• Do they Donk bet, and what does it mean?

Turn Notes

• How strong a hand does this player need to make or call an All-In bet on the turn
  
• Do they play for Pot Control with Medium/Good hands?

River Notes

• Does an All-In mean the nuts?
  
• Is he capable of making a big bluff on the river?
  
• Will he check down a strong hand outr of fear?

Dunno wot people here think of this as a 'template'?

PS - i'd really love to know what "Catches nut straight and shoves 15x on river" is in Italian

Curse you for posting results so fast!

FWIW, I was going to post easy call before I saw the results...

This guy's blocking bets on the turn + river suggest he got into a bigger pot than he really wanted to. Sometimes when that happens, they just freak out on the river and push because they feel so lost in the hand.

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Originally Posted by DoubleJ

• Do they play for Pot Control with Medium/Good hands?
• Will he check down a strong hand outr of fear?

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These are both VERY important reads you can use to narrow ranges in a wide range of situations against someone.

Good stuff DoubleJ, thanks. Some of that is done by poker tracker, but some needs way more effort than what I'm currently putting into notes.
So I'll look more into that part of the game.

Italian poker translations aren't very glamorous at all.
Most terms don't have a direct translation and most competent italian players learn from US players/books/sites, so the majority of the terms aren't translated.

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Originally Posted by Shizu

Italian poker translations aren't very glamorous at all.

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ahh dammit!

When you say "Some of that is done by poker tracker", do you mean it makes notes for you, or that you can infer stuff from stats?

Stats. Stuff like preflop limp/raise, reaction to 3-bet/4-bet, c-bet/fold to c-bet %.

Stats give us a broad picture of a villain's overall tendencies. Notes put the stats into the context of specific hands and lines on specific boards from specific positions.

Think of how useful a note like "c/r to all-in on flop 3 times, had NFD all 3" can be.