Deep river decision

Opponent is 55/27 over 375 hands, loose fish who likes to c/r top pair type hands and thinks they are the nuts. So lots of implied odds vs him. Tilts quite hard.

My flop bet should be a bit bigger imo, his c/c range here is almost completely draws (FD's, 54s, gutshots) and some weak pair hands. Turn is a clear value bet. His river lead looks like a made flush, I think he might bluff with 54s/GS's sometimes though. Still a fold though right?

weaktight | Hand Poll | 66 - $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem

Do you think he'll call 2 streets w/ AK and hit his K on the river. Sounds like that kinda player, could change things a bit.

it's close. A fold is fine - especially if you have any tendency towards tilt - but it probably doesn't matter too much whether you call or fold cos it's like 30% or something and he'll have AA/33/KJ and weird shit like J8 occasionally.

edit - staying deep vs this whale has enough EV that i think a river fold is better here. Vs this player you should definitely have potted flop, and probably overbet turn cos he's gonna love check-calling and he's on a calling roll (3 in a row, he's found the button!)

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Originally Posted by supahaole

Do you think he'll call 2 streets w/ AK and hit his K on the river. Sounds like that kinda player, could change things a bit.

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Good point, I need 27.2% equity to call. If I give him AK then I think we should give him some GS's though he might not bluff the river all the time with them. In his range I gave him K6s and 86s which might value bet this river along with made flushes, 54s as a bluff and 3 combo's of AKs.

AKs,AsQs,AsTs,As9s,As8s,As7s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,A s2s,KsQs,KsTs,Ks9s,Ks8s,Ks7s,K6s,Ks5s,QsTs,Qs9s,Qs 8s,Qs7s,Ts9s,Ts8s,Ts7s,9s8s,9s7s,9s6s,9s5s,8s7s,86 s,8s5s,8s4s,7s6s,7s5s,
7s4s,6s5s,6s4s,6s3s,54s,5s3s,5s2s,4s3s,4s2s,3s2s

21% against this range, adding 3 combo's of AKo makes this a call though idk how often he gets to the river with just AK hi or a bare gutshot.

against such a drooler i'm just betting pot with my "value" range on this flop and turn because lolbetsizingbalance vs this guy, and he doesn't care what we have, he's looking at his two cards only - especially if he has a draw, he wants to make his hand and probably isn't capable of thinking about how much he needs to extract in order to break even etc etc. i think our turn bet eliminates all AK high so this seems really weighted towards flushes. even if he was bad enough to get there with like 99,TT, i doubt he leads those hands on the river. we need something like 26-27% equity here. he has so few hands that he could be bluffing with here, and based on our read regarding how he plays top pair/overpair hands, it seems unlikely that he got there with anything like AJ or QQ+ and decided to try to value bet a worse hand. i fold.

What's his AF? I assume it's pretty high since you mention he likes to c/r top pair hands.

Snap this off theres way more than rivered flushes in his range. He could have K8, A8, 99, floated with KQ, AK, or even AQ, A6 and decided the Ks is a good scare card. Too good pot odds to fold to this guy.

surely he doesn't "float" two streets OOP with AK or KQ? to near pot-sized bets?

also, this line is pretty bizarre for A8, and he probably doesn't raise K8 pre. depends how spazz he is i guess.

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Originally Posted by rpm

surely he doesn't "float" two streets OOP with AK or KQ? to near pot-sized bets?

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I wouldn't be surprised.

against a fuck ton of Flushes and KJ you have 31% equity (i just stoved it) throw in any random spazzes and bom.

i'm converted.

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Originally Posted by rpm

surely he doesn't "float" two streets OOP with AK or KQ? to near pot-sized bets?

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I tend to think anyone that has a vpip of 55 has trouble letting go of hands that "could" hit

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Originally Posted by daven

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edit - staying deep vs this whale has enough EV that i think a river fold is better here. Vs this player you should definitely have potted flop, and probably overbet turn cos he's gonna love check-calling and he's on a calling roll (3 in a row, he's found the button!)

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when i looked at the hand history i was thinking along the lines of $1 on the flop , 5$ on the turn,leaving the option of a roughly pot sized bet on the river.

Yeah there's no way in hell you can do anything but call this river.

I would pot the flop. It doesn't make your range look any different, and it won't change their calling ranges either. I would bet closer to pot on the turn as well.
I just bleh fold river, and I don't think it's that hard. It's a pretty bold assumption to give him AK, KQ... KJ even. This looks like a badly played flushdraw, and I don't see how it could be anything else. Prolly a small flush cos of sizing. It doesn't make any sense, but that's what some guys like to do.

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Originally Posted by daven

it's close. A fold is fine - especially if you have any tendency towards tilt - but it probably doesn't matter too much whether you call or fold cos it's like 30% or something and he'll have AA/33/KJ and weird shit like J8 occasionally.

edit - staying deep vs this whale has enough EV that i think a river fold is better here. Vs this player you should definitely have potted flop, and probably overbet turn cos he's gonna love check-calling and he's on a calling roll (3 in a row, he's found the button!)

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Cheers for the advice daven, I think it's possible that he can get to the river with AA in his range but not have hardly any Jx type hands in his range based on my read that he would always bet or c/r Jx on the flop. JJ/33 are definitely possible if he likes to slow play big hands.

Guys seriously, opp is a drooling tilting moron that's likely to play really badly and show up with dumb shit and you're wanting to fold and giving us less than the 27% we need to call here.

KJ can so so easily be in his range here in mass quantity. His sizing is very much not indicative of nut flushes or even strong ones. He can have these yeah, but I'd discount them more than I would a blocking semi scared hand like KJ. He can also play a Jx hand like this a non 0% of the time or even have 45s.

He obviously has a flush most of the time here, but when we need 27% equity and he can defo show up with KJ and some other randomly played Jx sometimes; we just can't fold for this price.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.143% 32.14% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 6c6d }
Hand 1: 67.857% 67.86% 00.00% 19 0.00 { AsQs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs7s, Ts9s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 7s5s, 5s4s, 4s3s, KJo

This is a range with just KJ and a shitload of flushes. We have more than enough equity. This range accounts for no additional random spazz (AA Jx etc) tha he can defo have occasionaly, and doesn't discount nut flushes due to his sizing at all. Can someone make a tight enough range where we have less than 27% equity against such a tard?

meh... I guess you can call, but I still think it's close. I really want to heavily discount like anything but a flush. JJ is kind of a possibility. JK seems pretty absurd given reads and stuff. I wouldn't get too hung up on the fact that he's quote unquote bad. I just really struggle giving him anything we beat the way this went down.

why would you consider folding the river for more then like 6seconds?