Good Spot to pick an overbet bluff?

I have a reasonable amount of history with this villain-about 3200 hands. He is a pretty decent TAG (20/16 with cbet% of 49/67/56 on the flop/turn/river) in my opinion who knows I don't like to play really big pots unless I have a very good hand. Moreover, if he has been paying careful attention he might have picked up that if I make a big hand on the river I almost always lead out OOP instead of going for the checkraise. Therefore, he should know that I almost never have a 5 in this spot and that I am pot controlling with a decent hand like AJ/KJ.

Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players

CO: $40.60
BTN: $26.19
SB: $29.52
Hero (BB): $25.86
UTG: $27.10

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with :js: :as:
1 fold, CO raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) :2d: :6d: :jh: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.30) :4s: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.00, Hero calls $3

River: ($10.30) :3c: (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $35.50,

{Edit: Fixed the converted hand so the Jh shows on the flop. -- spoonitnow}

Am I missing something here? What is your question?

You have A high.. are you thinking of calling here? What are you beating that does this?

Agreed, I don't see a question, and why would there be a question to this hand?

Also I don't see any reason that you should still be in this hand after the turn... Are you banking on an ace? What would you do if you got one?

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Originally Posted by Outlaw

Am I missing something here? What is your question?

You have A high.. are you thinking of calling here? What are you beating that does this?

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This is what I thought too, but the hand converter messed up. He actually has TPTK with the :jh: on the flop.

After 3200 hands you should have an idea of what he does this 3xpot bet with.

Oh in that case bet/fold the river

cc, cc, bet/fold is fine here because he probably checks back worse Jx and bets when you're beat.
As played it's a pretty stupid spot because he's repping so little, but I would want a note that he ever overbet bluffed to make that call... or that he bet/bet/overbet a couple of times already.
Otherwise I think he shows up with 5x here all the time.

In before someone suggests OP reads http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

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Originally Posted by kidsoldja

he should know that I almost never have a 5 in this spot and that I am pot controlling with a decent hand like AJ/KJ.

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villain can have 5x here dude
bet fold river is pretty clear

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

In before someone suggests OP reads http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

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this

just thought i'd point out that this is effectively a 2x's the pot bet, since hero only has 20 bucks left behind.

on one hand, you have the very top of your range, but on the other hand, if a 25nl reg is able to recognize this, then kudos to him. it's kind of a leveling spot where op prolly knows best based on the gameflow, etc.

what was the timing on each of the bets?

@ people who were confused about the HH showing that we had A-high instead of TPTK, it doesn't really make a world of difference unless we expect him to show up with 76s or A2s or something like that a bunch here.

In the actual hand I really, really wanted to call since it seemed like he would only make such a big bet if he desperately wanted me to fold. We have enough history that I think he knows that I almost never calling in this spot with the top pair type hand that I have and that is basically face up.

But in the end I wimped out and folded. Then he showed A9 of diamonds for the bluff!

well kudos to him for getting a 25nl player to fold TPTK, but he's pretty retarded for showing you the bluff

Fold river, most microers don't overbet bluff and it's usually for value.

Anyone here like betting turn? Turn's a bad barrel card and I think it's very likely that it's going to get checked behind. Villain can still call turn donk w/ draws and worse J's or some middish pp. We can then c/c river once the draws miss. Good plan/bad plan?

I would have called but oh wells

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Originally Posted by surviva316

what was the timing on each of the bets?

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?

Convinced some people as to why we should call too. Horrah

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Convinced some people as to why we should call too. Horrah

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Villain double barrels a pretty high frequency, and his flop cbet is only 50%, so he's probably only cbetting like TP, sets, overpairs, draws, etc, and air. He probably doesn't double barrel a ton of air, but he's definitely double barreling with FDs, sets, and maybe AJ/KJ. He's not double barreling with 77/55, 6x, etc.

River is an lolscarecard for hero, and since villain is 'decent' (i assume this means he can actually read a board, and at least thinks about hero's hand) he knows its a scarecard. FD's missed, he's not shoving AJ/KJ. I doubt he's shoving a set here a very high frequency, since I doubt he thinks we can call with TPTK.

That basically only leaves draws, and somehow 5x if you really think he double barrels with 56, 55.

Even if he shoves 66 and 22 for sets, he probably shoves his missed draws with a much higher frequency and he has A9, AT, AJ, AQ, AK, etc (diamonds obv) all in his range so... fist pump snap call?

Hi5

Agree with call, I don't see him ever shoving a set here when any 5 makes a straight.

He doesn't have many value combos so looks like a call to me

Also, bet/folding this river seems really, really, bad after villain double barrels since we already noted villain will double barrel sets, draws, TP, and overpairs. He's not going to believe we have 5x anymore than we should believe he does.

We have like, the perfect bluffcatcher for his range. He doesn't double barrel with worse than TP, we're only getting value from KJ/QJ (probably not even QJ..), he'll call with his sets, he's not going to bet his set 100% of the time, since he might be more retarded than OP thinks and be scared of betting onto a 4 straight board, especially since we can c/r with missed FDs or some shit and get him to cry and fold 22.

Umm... so yea. Bet/fold seems bad. Also, I lol if we call and he shows us Ad5d.

This looks like diamonds, then a 5.