3/6 - dumb hand, small pot gone big

-villain in this hand is sup foolio
-he's pretty aggro, and plays mostly 5/10 I'm pretty sure
-villain runs 27/21/2.6 over bigish sample
-dynamic this session is that he's been 3betting me on a few tables, and I've folded to all of them
-timing of both checks were around 3 seconds
-river bet, 4 seconds, $10 into 55ish
-if people are bluffing here, do they really bluff this big or would they just c/r to like $80 or something? I was prepared to call a c/r <90ish pretty quickly given my sizing but not sure now


$3/$6 Ante $1.20 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (UTG) ($600)
UTG+1 ($676.80)
CO ($619.80)
BTN ($626.20)
SB ($1,020.40)
BB ($1,605.40)

Pre-Flop: ($16.20, 6 players) Hero is UTG :8h: :8c:
Hero raises to $21, 3 folds, SB calls $18, 1 fold

Flop: :7c: :ks: :7s: ($55.20, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: :kh: ($55.20, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: :2d: ($55.20, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB raises to $150, Hero tanks

I doubt he thinks you bet this river very often, and that your range is predominantly pretty weak hands w/SD value which would check back most of the time, but will likely call a bet. therefore why would he check a nut hand on the river to you when it's so likely you check back?

Also, what on earth does he think you're going to call this river with? He doesn't. (very often anyway)

So, yeah I probably call.

Also, if you're thinking these things "-if people are bluffing here, do they really bluff this big or would they just c/r to like $80 or something? I was prepared to call a c/r <90ish pretty quickly given my sizing but not sure now" which makes you lean towards a fold, then he is probably thinking these things too.

i have the bizarre urge to turn my hand into a bluff and shove or make it 340

not saying it makes any sense either, since obv he has almost no 7x hands in his range except for quads

but i wonder if he s sick enough to be doing this with TT or 99

but yeah, the "standard" answer to me feels like 60% call 40% fold or something like that

Feel like this is a call against him, but it has more to do with the reads i have on him and not what you put in this thread. Btw, I think when thinking aggro players make bets that look "valuey" (50, 150, 190, 299) there's a stronger likelyhood it's a bluff.

This is Max posting fyi.

Can we not b/f more on this river like 30, since we're beating almost his whole range a ton of the time, and since we're trying to get value from PPs worse than 88 (a weak range), shouldn't we bet a size that we'd bluff with and expect him to be way less likely to raise us and just as likely to call?

Also, does it not seem like it'd be really obvious to him as a 5/10 player etc, reg vs reg, that if you bet 10 here, you aren't going to be wanting to fold to a standard raise too readily. This makes me wanna call more as played and to not want to make this bet with the intention of b/c in the first place.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Carroters

Can we not b/f more on this river like 30, since we're beating almost his whole range a ton of the time, and since we're trying to get value from PPs worse than 88 (a weak range),

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Yah ofcourse we can bet more. But we're not getting called by PPs worse than 88, because PPs worse than 88 are counterfeited on this board. So we're getting called by A high (Q high?).

The problem with this spot, reg vs reg, is that I know this is such a dumb spot for a reg to bluff. It makes no sense, but I'm not sure what level he's on.

Max - that's an interesting point about the "valuey looking sizes". Thinking about my bluffs now, I can see how that is true. Though I'm not sure about 299. I feel like ppl use 99's to make the chips come out in a huge stack, so it "seems bluffy".. but I'm not sure.

I would call this with JJ or better.

I don't really get why we're betting this river since we have sd value against his range + he probably has more air in his range than A-hi. Why risk getting in spots like this were it's hard to know if he's bluffing?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HoopyDude

I don't really get why we're betting this river since we have sd value against his range + he probably has more air in his range than A-hi. Why risk getting in spots like this were it's hard to know if he's bluffing?

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I just think I'm ahead so often here, and A-high makes up a good part of his range I'd imagine (his air range might have tried to bluff at this pot by now, while A-high would be content just getting to showdown). I also think A-high will have a hard time not calling this size bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

I just think I'm ahead so often here, and A-high makes up a good part of his range I'd imagine (his air range might have tried to bluff at this pot by now, while A-high would be content just getting to showdown). I also think A-high will have a hard time not calling this size bet.

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Good points. I think I'd probably fold 88/99 in this spot and wouldn't feel to bad about it.

This is Danny posting and I think its close. If he raised to a standard size I'd fold pretty happily, its too credible to me that he'd play both a king or a 7 this way.

The river bet size seems bad, I'd just bet 35 or something and hope that he snaps with Q high or something.

i dont like the check down much, tho flop seems ok. id just bet river normal and fold to a raise with my image