-EV Call?

We are deep with villain who is your standard tag running 21/16 50afq over 200~ hands. Haven't seen him do anything out of line yet.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($15.10)
Hero (BB) ($19.30)
UTG ($16.40)
MP ($20.10)
CO ($4.50)
Button ($16.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8:diamond:, 9:diamond:
UTG bets $0.30, 1 fold, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) 7:diamond:, 4:diamond:, 9:heart: (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.60, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.80, UTG calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.55) 10:club: (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, UTG raises to $14.30 (All-In), $10.80 for hero to call


I just want to see whether I did the math right here using spoonitnow's How to: Analyze Calling An All-in thread


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.649% 41.65% 00.00% 788 0.00 { 9d8d }
Hand 1: 58.351% 58.35% 00.00% 1104 0.00 { 99+, 77, 44, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, JdTd }



^^^I doubt villain is raising anything lower UTG



Using the fraction bet/(bet+pot) formula, 10.80/(14.30+4.55) = 57%, this would be a -ev call in the long run? Any thoughts on how I played the hand?

To clarify the math:

Bet = the bet size you're calling, pot = the pot when it's your turn to call.

Obviously you're calling $10.80. The pot when it's your turn to act on the end is the 4.55 that was in it going into the turn plus the 3.50 you put in with your bet and the 14.30 he put in with his raise for a total of $22.35.

So bet/(bet+pot) = 10.80/(10.80+22.35) = 0.3258 or 32.58%.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

To clarify the math:

Bet = the bet size you're calling, pot = the pot when it's your turn to call.

Obviously you're calling $10.80. The pot when it's your turn to act on the end is the 4.55 that was in it going into the turn plus the 3.50 you put in with your bet and the 14.30 he put in with his raise for a total of $22.35.

So bet/(bet+pot) = 10.80/(10.80+22.35) = 0.3258 or 32.58%.

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ahhh thanks for that. I suppose it was right to call here. Would anyone have approached this hand differently considering we're deep?

I think this may have been discussed in the BC before- where OP brought up that they should fold aces pre to an all in because they had 80 % ish equity and needed 85% or something silly like that. Just remember you can never be offered worse than 50% equity in a pot, because bets are always made 1 for 1. So if your calculation is showing anything more than 50% EV needed, you know somethings wrong. Preflop, you need about 48% ish usually depending on stack sizes, to stack off vs an opponents range (because of the additional blind money). If an all in call is around the size of the pot, you only need 33 percent (you are getting 2 to 1- villian is giving you the current pot (1) plus his bet (1) when ever you win, to what you risk (1 also).

Something useful to think about because if we have a PSB behind on the flop for some reason, we have an NFD on a Qxx two tone flop (with AK say), and villian puts us all in, if he has anything less than sets in his range it's probably correct to call ( as we only need 33% vs his range, and flush draw + possibly 6 additional outs- easily 33%).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by deucesomething

ahhh thanks for that. I suppose it was right to call here. Would anyone have approached this hand differently considering we're deep?

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maybe check into villian, considering he didn't ship the two tone flop, and hasn't been too out of line , as you've said? i.e if he bets it isn't going to be same insane overbet we cannot possibly call..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jaytoi

I think this may have been discussed in the BC before- where OP brought up that they should fold aces pre to an all in because they had 80 % ish equity and needed 85% or something silly like that. Just remember you can never be offered worse than 50% equity in a pot, because bets are always made 1 for 1. So if your calculation is showing anything more than 50% EV needed, you know somethings wrong. Preflop, you need about 48% ish usually depending on stack sizes, to stack off vs an opponents range (because of the additional blind money). If an all in call is around the size of the pot, you only need 33 percent (you are getting 2 to 1- villian is giving you the current pot (1) plus his bet (1) when ever you win, to what you risk (1 also).

Something useful to think about because if we have a PSB behind on the flop for some reason, we have an NFD on a Qxx two tone flop (with AK say), and villian puts us all in, if he has anything less than sets in his range it's probably correct to call ( as we only need 33% vs his range, and flush draw + possibly 6 additional outs- easily 33%).

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A couple things. You mean you can never be offered worse than 50% pot odds as 1:1 = 1/2 = 50%. You CAN have 0 equity in a pot.

Anyway, if you take the above range (I left out KdTd since I doubt he raises that UTG.)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.965% 46.97% 00.00% 20923 0.00 { 9d8d }
Hand 1: 53.035% 53.03% 00.00% 23627 0.00 { 99+, 77, 44, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, JdTd }

You now look at your pot odds since we are an underdog here which is what spoon was showing.
10.80/(10.80+22.35) = 0.3258 < 46.965 = +EV.

I don't actually think he has as many flush draws as you put in the range but even when you take most of them out the equity doesn't change much at all. I think you played it fine.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jaytoi

I think this may have been discussed in the BC before- where OP brought up that they should fold aces pre to an all in because they had 80 % ish equity and needed 85% or something silly like that. Just remember you can never be offered worse than 50% equity in a pot, because bets are always made 1 for 1. So if your calculation is showing anything more than 50% EV needed, you know somethings wrong. Preflop, you need about 48% ish usually depending on stack sizes, to stack off vs an opponents range (because of the additional blind money). If an all in call is around the size of the pot, you only need 33 percent (you are getting 2 to 1- villian is giving you the current pot (1) plus his bet (1) when ever you win, to what you risk (1 also).

Something useful to think about because if we have a PSB behind on the flop for some reason, we have an NFD on a Qxx two tone flop (with AK say), and villian puts us all in, if he has anything less than sets in his range it's probably correct to call ( as we only need 33% vs his range, and flush draw + possibly 6 additional outs- easily 33%).

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I disagree on the 48%ish.. and you can need 50%+ in fact I did need 50%+ in a hand where I had 50% and folded, since we have to account for rake. this is a minor point, but I think it is overlooked on marginal hands.. Had a .04 pot AKQJT on the board, 4 suits (ie. no possible flush) villain shoves all in for $1.98 more (i have $2.98 behind or so) so the final pot would be $4.00 - rake. Without accounting for rake, obviously I have 50% EV and 1.98/4.00 = 49.5% needed. EZ call.. But obviously if we're trying to maximize profits we need to account for rake... lets assume 5%.. I think that's what FT takes, don't remember. so our calc is 1.98/(4.00(1-.05)) = 1.98/(4.00-0.20) = 1.98/3.80 = 52.1% EV needed. I fold. Rarely will this make a difference in which is the best play, but occasionally it matters, though this is one of the few situations where we can obviously do this. However, I think when a call is that close, this should be accounted for.

Anyways, that was a rant; irrelevant here, but I think it's useful to express. Edit:: useful preflop as we know rake>blinds in most all in pots.. still need >50%

Good point sven. It's a very micros specific thing though I would say :P unless the pot is just the blinds like you outlined..

and yes i think when i said equity i meatn pot odds and when i said EV i meant equity ... :facepalm:

Well ya...using a continuous (instead of discrete) rate of 5% for the rake values, youd find that you could never be given worse than 52.6% pot equity. However...after dealing with some form of rake back...thisll probably go down to something like 52%. Really though, i can only imagine ever being worried about this 2% difference in extremely special circumstances like the example above, because it is rare that we'll see pots that are so much smaller than the bets being made where we could be offered exactly this 52%, and even rarer where we would find that we knew our equity exactly. Additionally, remember that we dont usually account for bluffs when determining our equity and this hidden equity helps to balance out the issue.

I fold preflop, look into your tracking prog sometime and see your expectation from the blinds. We lose most of our money playing out of position.

However being as deep as you are and a bit multiway it's alright as long as you can get away from it if you dont hit.

If you were 100 BB's deep I wouldn't have minded c/r jamming this flop, but deep as you are a regular c/r is fine but I would do it a bit more because your deep and SPR is super high.

Then when the T rolls off on the turn and he almost always has an overpair here you just have to get that money in like crazy

Flop check/raise is pure spew.