200nl FR... how's my line?

villain is redacesfull
I have 2.6k hands on this a$$hole but have not played for any large pots together. He's 11.3% VPIP, 7% PFR, 3.9 Aggro factor.

This is a line I like to take when we are in a way ahead / way behind situation oop. Not too worried about much, turn sucks, but how's my line overall?

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($208.25)
CO ($200)
Button ($171.20)
SB ($200)
BB ($332.70)
UTG ($200)
Hero (UTG+1) ($286.55)
MP1 ($96.20)
MP2 ($324.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif
1 fold, Hero bets $8, 1 fold, MP2 calls $8, 5 folds

Flop: ($19) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $14, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($47) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $24, Hero calls $24

River: ($95) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $72, Hero calls $72

Total pot: $239

River call seems bad when he can have BDFD's KQ and slowplayed KK and AA. His bet sizing seems to suggest he has the nuts though I haven't played with him in ages so I really can't remember reads off hand. But I don't think there are many people bad/good enough to triple barrel you off like what appears to be JJ here.

I really hate this line btw. Unless you balance this line, you'll be getting exploited way too often.

I really dislike the line.
I prefer c-betting flop cos I c-bet both AK and AA here and he's going to be calling at least one street with most of his range.

As played I bet-fold turn for $35ish.

For this line to be good wouldn't your oppenent need to be really spewy instead of massively nitty?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by badgers

For this line to be good wouldn't your oppenent need to be really spewy instead of massively nitty?

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Yeah this makes a lot of sense.

Makes me wonder how the hell I'm in the positive.

Because you hand read really well and never tilt?

fwiw although I disagree with the way you planned the hand on the flop, I think the turn is great since he will barrel it 100% of the time. After the turn comes I think your line is fine, maybe you know more about this guy than me anyway.

whenever i take a similar line and then they fire the river real big, i'm like, fux, well i induced this and they have to barrel their air to make me fold, i call. And the results are: if villain is a nit, he has a flush or better. If villain is an aggro reg, he sometimes has the nuts and he sometimes has random air.

I'd almost never expect this to be AK.

Basically i agree that it's a bad plan vs this guy, the turn is good, and the river sucks but i think you should fold given reads/betsizing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TwoSmeets

I'd almost never expect this to be AK.

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I realize I'm not contributing, but lol, nitring

wierd fucking hand i can only put him on ak

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ZwiFT

wierd fucking hand i can only put him on ak

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which is exactly why this is a call imo.

why can't he have QQ, KQ

He folds KQ pre and there's only one combo of QQ so it's a fairly insignificant part of his range. I guess he can maybe have AA/KK some of the time also.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by badgers

He folds KQ pre and there's only one combo of QQ so it's a fairly insignificant part of his range. I guess he can maybe have AA/KK some of the time also.

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What badgers said. One combo plus playing QQ this way after hero checks the flop is highly unlikely

calling your opponent an a$$hole isn't going to help you think about the hand objectively.

Meh, this is so read driven. If you play with him a lot, doing this sometimes is good.