AA on QTJA4 3-flush board facing river decision
This one was pretty sick. Villain is a solid 25/18 with an AF of 4.2 over 200 or so hands. We haven't been involved in too many blind battles. I've seen him float the flop (betting the turn) with a decent draw a few times, but no draws missed in this hand.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($19.50)
BB ($43.60)
Button ($25.15)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.50) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25
Turn: ($4) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25
River: ($8.50) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $6, Hero ???
The turn check/call was pretty bad since he could be floating me with a wide range. I was thinking that a lot of K hands were in that range though, so I was hoping to fill up on the river and take his stack. In doing so, however, I let any heart hand draw pretty cheaply. I would have probably check/called a non-heart river, but by now I'm losing to any K and any 2 hearts. I would expect Villain to have no less than aces up to bet on this river:
Code:
Board: Qh Th Js Ad 4h
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.482% 20.48% 00.00% 17 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 79.518% 79.52% 00.00% 66 0.00 { TT+, ATs+, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, K9s+, Jh9h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, ATo+, KTo+ }
How is that for a range? Villain has a 15%+ call PFR, so I could see him coming to the flop with a pretty wide range, especially since I only raised 3x and he has position on me. I need 29% to call and my equity looks to be only like 20%, unless you can come up with some other hands he would play this way. I would expect him to raise the flop if he had 2 pair there because he always played strong hands fast against other opponents.
Hmm... thinking this over, I should probably take TT+, AQ, AK, and K9 out of his range since he would probably either be 3-betting or raising the flop with those. Things only get worse when I do that, of course:
Code:
Board: Qh Th Js Ad 4h
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 08.197% 08.20% 00.00% 5 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 91.803% 91.80% 00.00% 56 0.00 { AJs-ATs, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, K9s+, Jh9h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, AJo-ATo, KTo+ }
Yikes! I don't think there's any way he's bluffing more than 20% of the time in this spot. Seems like a fold.
