I felt like my cbets were really getting snapped up today, so I decided to do a little bit of analysis via poker tracker to see if they were leaking me money. For the record I'm a VPIP: 22/PFR: 7.5/post flop aggro: 2.5. I went through every hand over the last 2 days and looked for every cbet. I counted a cbet as anytime I was the PFR, I didn't have a pocket pair, and I didn't hit. I tallied my net gain vs. my net loss from the cbet(s) alone, not counting the money I put in preflop. I think net gain actually underestimated the value of my cbets as it only counted money I hadn't put into the pot, but even with that and even in the middle of what seemed like a rough streak they were still profitable, earning about 0.8BB per cbet. Okay, so I'm feeling a little better about the issue and I'll probably start cbetting even more.
But, going through all this I noticed a few major issues:
1) My 2nd barrels were a major leak. I lost a lot more than I won with them. And I only fire 2nd barrels about 20% of the time. I'm beginning to think I need to hold off on a 2nd barrel unless I've got a definite read. The Villain has called my preflop raise and my 1st barrel, at this point I'm behind and/or he's going to make a play that my hand isn't good enough to fight back with for this to be profitable?
2) If I get check raised, I should fold. And since I'm cbetting over 50% of the time after raising, an aware player can check raise me w/ any 2 for an automatic profit, and I felt like that was happening a lot today.
3) OOP I bet, they call, I check, they bet, I fold, or w/ position they check, I bet, they call, they check, I check, they bet the pot on the river and I fold. Once again, an aware player can use either of these lines for automatic profit.
What can I do to make this more profitable? I hate to admit it, but sometimes I just called the check raise and/or turn bet because I thought the guy was screwing with me. And sometimes he was, but even if he was I usually had to fold to the turn/river bet and in this stretch of hands even when he was making a move he caught a pair on the turn or the river. And there is nothing like calling that turn minraise only to catch a card on the river and find out that it made the Villain's 2 pair. I could reraise but that's an awfully expensive way to find out if I'm really behind.
So this is what I've come up with so far. I need a read before I can really fight back. The first time Villain c/r's or turn bets me I fold, because I'm behind a lot of the time at this point and its not worth finding out if I'm ahead. Now the next time I raise Villain calls and pulls the same crap again - 3-bet if he c/r'ed me or fire a 2nd barrel and fold to any aggro? Or should I just fold and stop cbetting this guy until I have a hand? And if any of this is familiar, after a couple of these scenarios does it ever feel like someone put a big "bluff me" sign on your back and the whole table starts attacking your cbets?
Finally, to turn this around and use this for evil rather than good:
Wait till you've got at least 100 hands of history so the PFR % is accurate, look for anyone with a PFR of 7% or higher with a post flop aggro factor of 1.5 or more, since you're calling w/ pocket pairs anyway you should be ahead after most flops so check raise any semi-ragged flop for fun and profit. (The call flop, hope that they check the turn then bet the turn seems more expensive and less reliable since you are giving them a free card and they may fire the 2nd barrel).
