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WW JK9 game thread

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  1. #526
    Quote Originally Posted by monstrman View Post
    Mcdonalds is a clever ploy to appear villagery? I should leverage them more often in that case
    That was a joke. I don't attach any significance to the avatar.

    Being ranked 4/6 though, I think you'd be happy with that?
  2. #527
    So looking at Benny's first day, he basically went back and forth between seriously accusing Jack and seriously accusing Luco, threw in a joke accusation at baudib in-between, before finally going with the crowd and lynching Oskar.

    If I'm either of Jack or Luco and a wolf I'm obviously going to be nervous about this (unless I'm a sociopath), but I'm also going to be aware that killing Benny will make me look suspicious, since i was one of his main targets. So I don't think it's either of them that's a wolf.

    If I'm spaceman or mnstrman, Benny was pretty trusting of both and there's no reason to kill him when he's off on the wrong track and defending us besides. So neither of them is a wolf imo.

    If I'm Ong or baud, killing Benny gets rid of a pretty active villager and doesn't make either of us look suspicious.

    So it's Ong and baud as my two top votes. I'll keep my vote to baud first cause it's fun watching Ong squirm. Also because neither of them will kill me on night two 'cause that's pretty much a confession.
  3. #528
    Poop either is the greatest wolf ever and divined that my secret wolfteam is ong/baduib or is just a villager

    That being said, some posts from both of them give me pause as to whether or not they are actually teamed

    Could just be jack vance/spacecamp and in that world one of baud/ong is the jk I guess

    Seems pretty mechanical from my pov
  4. #529
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    on the block | # votes | who voted (in what post)

    Spacecamp | 2 | baudib (458), ong (501)

    baudib | 2 | monstrman (421), Poop (522)
    JV | 1 | Spacecamp (496)
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  5. #530
    Quote Originally Posted by monstrman View Post
    Poop either is the greatest wolf ever and divined that my secret wolfteam is ong/baduib or is just a villager

    That being said, some posts from both of them give me pause as to whether or not they are actually teamed

    Could just be jack vance/spacecamp and in that world one of baud/ong is the jk I guess

    Seems pretty mechanical from my pov
    Ong, Monstrman is onto us. We better do some hard-distancing between now and our real votes on Friday.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  6. #531
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Here's an interesting question that no-one seems to have asked: Why was benny eaten first? Who (as a wolf obv) would have found him to be a significant threat worth taking out first?
    Probably not worth too much thought. Most likely some combination of specials hunting (he was a special) and/or SPK (strong player kill).
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  7. #532
    It's interesting that sapcecamp was on baudib, but now baudib has real heat, he's not.

    Spacecamp, put your vote on baudib so he can be hammered. I dare you.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #533
    The benny kill only implies that there's a reg amongst the wolves. That's also probable. I'd definitely kill benny, so would baudib luco and jack. The others might.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  9. #534
    By the way, spacecamp is twice as likely to be a wolf than the JK, from a pure mathematical pov. There's two wolves, and only one JK. A wolf is claiming JK when he thinks he's in trouble, at least when it hasn't been claimed. If spacecamp is a wolf, the other wolf is certainly not claiming JK, because then the real JK cc's and the wolves are screwed.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  10. #535
    If poop is a wolf, he's not a great wolf, he's just very good at not being wolfy. If he can combine that with appearing like a useful villager, then he's a great wolf. Poop hasn't done enough to justify being a useful villager. But he has done enough to not be lynched. That's a decent first game performance, whatever his alignment.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  11. #536
    Ong there have been more than a few noob wolves who have carried their teams on this very site. The problem isn't being new to wolfing, it's becoming more experience at villaging. When you establish a town meta you become conscious of the differences and obviously other people notice.

    I don't really think Poop is a wolf either, but I still have concerns.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  12. #537
    I'm not particularly concerned. If spacecamp isn't a wolf, then I'm concerned. But he is a wolf.

    I really hope poop is the JK, because his claim, when it comes, will be terrible for the wolves.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  13. #538
    Why does monstr think jack is a wolf?

    Let's assume spacecamp is a wolf. Monstr sees a speed wagon which he's on, along with me and jack, which causes the wolf to fakeclaim JK.

    If spacecamp is a wolf, I'm pretty much hard clearing monstrr for the part he played in the wagon. There's no reason to think spacecamp was hard bussed by his wolf bro. So I extend that hard clear to Jack, too.

    Monstr should have me and jack as nailed on villagers, at least for now.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  14. #539
    Poop with the analysis.

    It's pretty decent analysis actually but I think the way you are trying to guess the motives of the wolves is understandable but from my experience not accurate. Noms are usually either special hunting or killing off the most villagery looking person, especially early and mid game. I remember a game where Gator was a wolf and throughout the whole game I was trying to figure out the logic of why this and that person was getting eaten, linking it to people and their motives. But when the game ended I checked out the den and all Gator and team did was try to kill whoever they thought was most likely to be the seer every night. Notice that Benny was a special, so either the wolves sniffed that out or more likely, he had positioned himself as a solid villager.

    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    So it's Ong and baud as my two top votes. I'll keep my vote to baud first cause it's fun watching Ong squirm. Also because neither of them will kill me on night two 'cause that's pretty much a confession.
    That's an example of the kind of reasoning I don't agree with because it's too easy for the wolves to fake. Especially when you say it out loud.
  15. #540
    Poop getting fun out of imagining me squirming. Quite the imagination.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  16. #541
    When I'm a wolf,. I don't tend to suggest we kill people who suspect me or other wolves, and couldn't care less how it reflects upon me because I can easily argue that he was killed to frame me. I understand poop feels the need to try to analyse the night kill, but with experience he'll learn that wolves don't tend to think like he thinks they do.

    Last game when I was wolf, my final kill was hoopy. He was reading me as a villager. But I knew coming into final day, hoopy would reassess, so that didn't influence my decision. I killed hoopy because I felt that's who rascal would think gator would kill. Wolves tend to think on a different level to "let's kill those who suspect us". It's nearly always either special hunting, killing confirmed villagers, killing obvious villagers, killing strong villagers, or an attempt to level the village. Sometimes it might be as simple as "he thinks I'm a wolf so he's gotta go", but I don't think like that, and I wouldn't expect baudib, jack or luco to think like that either.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  17. #542
    I'd be 100% special hunting n1 in this setup, and I've never wanted to night kill someone just because they suspected me. There's always a more important reason to want someone dead
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  18. #543
    n1 is nearly always special hunting. If you can't find any reason to think someone is special, the next best thing to do is kill the most dangerous seer. benny fits the bill nicely there.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  19. #544
    All I take from the n1 kill is that there's probably an FTR reg amonst the wolves. Probably. It's not out of the question that two non-regs realised benny was a strong kill, so it's not a given. But I lean towards there being a wolf between jack, luco and baudib purely because of the night kill. I wouldn't consider it a huge tell though.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  20. #545
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    It's interesting that sapcecamp was on baudib, but now baudib has real heat, he's not.

    Spacecamp, put your vote on baudib so he can be hammered. I dare you.
    Rescind jack

    Vote Baudib

    Why the dare? Why would I not vote in the interest of self preservation here?

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    The benny kill only implies that there's a reg amongst the wolves. That's also probable. I'd definitely kill benny, so would baudib luco and jack. The others might.
    A reg?
  21. #546
    Someone who has played many times on FTR. A regular.

    baudib is L-1. I could hammer him right now. If he's a wolf with spacecamp and gets lynched today, we've won, we'd only need a counterclaim to guarantee it.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  22. #547
    baudib needs to get his ass in here and start villagering, quickly.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  23. #548
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Someone who has played many times on FTR. A regular.

    baudib is L-1. I could hammer him right now. If he's a wolf with spacecamp and gets lynched today, we've won, we'd only need a counterclaim to guarantee it.
    Roger that, and thanks.
    I was reading it like "Reggie"

    I think the post-count limitation is lifted from me, but if not, this is my 2nd post of the real-world day. You should see some more participation from me.
  24. #549
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    on the block | # votes | who voted (in what post)

    baudib | 3 | monstrman (421), Poop (522), Spacecamp (545)

    Spacecamp | 2 | baudib (458), ong (501)



    EOD is in a little over 5.5 hours.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  25. #550
    luco could hammer baudib too. We'd both be happy to, based on our comments so far today. Would spacecamp really put his vote there if he's his wolf bro?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  26. #551
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    luco could hammer baudib too. We'd both be happy to, based on our comments so far today. Would spacecamp really put his vote there if he's his wolf bro?
    I don't expect an answer to this, but who do you have less confidence in?
  27. #552
    Honestly, it doesn't feel like baudib is a villager. luco, I guess I'm 50-50 and wouldn't be surprised either way. Given that I'm still near certain you're a wolf, I'm confused why you would happily put baudib's neck on the block if he's a wolf with you, because you can't hope to win alone. So that has me thinking that either luco is the wolf, or that somehow you actually are the JK and that we're in a very bad spot.

    But herein lies the problem. You don't seem to be in any hurry to find wolves (like I would expect if you're JK), while you also don't seem to be worried about the village being in a bad spot. So I'm still near certain you're a wolf.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  28. #553
    I have not cast my vote so I could put the nail in the coffin as well for baudib. He does look wolfy because his reasonings don't seem logical. But why finish someone off when he's on the block with only 4 hours left? That would just be bad play.
  29. #554
    A hammer with 4 hours left is fine. We should wait for baudib in case he has a counterclaim, but time isn't a problem.

    Would you prefer another CFD?

    (CFD = Chinese fire drill, a disorganised last minute lynch with very little time to spare)
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  30. #555
    jack, do you agree that spacecamp's baudib vote is unlikely to come from a wolf bro? Or would you be inclined to think that he just doesn't see what other option he has?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  31. #556
    It doesn't feel like w/w distancing from spacecamp
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  32. #557
    Just think about why I would say we kill spacecamp after he hard-claims. Don't insult me and think I would do that under normal circumstances.

    Monstr -- should always be a villa here but I'm concerned that he's acting a little too lackdaiscal about the game being mechanically locked. Still I would only reconsider at F3.

    Ong -- He's straight villaging and I would have guessed he was a special because he has projected an inner confidence in his ability to fend off pressure this game. He's pretty pure and should frankly always die in the next two nights.

    Luco -- Tone is fine but just seems to be lacking. Where's his hunting/solving?

    Poop -- Pretty impressive for his first game regardless of alignment. I am a little paranoid about him because he's probably getting too much cred for being a noob. If this was an experienced player the shape of his game could easily be wolf.

    Jack -- Villager? I guess I can see it but I really feel like he was TMIing and his D1 was not villagery either.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  33. #558
    So what do you think luco? Is spacecamp JK? Is poop a wolf with spacecamp? Or was spacecamp hard bussed?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  34. #559
    As a villager he has to vote for baudib so as a wolf he has to do the same. That said I don't see how they are likely wolves together because baudib REALLY wanted spacecamp lynched after the JK claim. Seems very far away from optimal wolf team play.
  35. #560
    Quote Originally Posted by jackvance View Post
    I have not cast my vote so I could put the nail in the coffin as well for baudib. He does look wolfy because his reasonings don't seem logical. But why finish someone off when he's on the block with only 4 hours left? That would just be bad play.
    you probably should have just hammered me.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  36. #561
    baudib, you're L-1 with hours to go. Don't soft claim JK. Either hard claim it and we'll hang spacecamp, or hope to avoid lynch.

    I'm happy to lynch the JK claim, that can count as a soft claim too. We can't both be JK now, can we?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  37. #562
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    jack, do you agree that spacecamp's baudib vote is unlikely to come from a wolf bro? Or would you be inclined to think that he just doesn't see what other option he has?
    I was responding to this.
  38. #563
    Quote Originally Posted by jackvance View Post
    As a villager he has to vote for baudib so as a wolf he has to do the same. That said I don't see how they are likely wolves together because baudib REALLY wanted spacecamp lynched after the JK claim. Seems very far away from optimal wolf team play.
    I hard bussed boog last game after he claimed. His claim wasn't very good and I wanted to be the one to expose it.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  39. #564
    Alright don't let his partner come in and hammer me. I know I haven't been active in this game but I don't wanna take the blame for throwing.

    HARD-CLAIM JK

    n1 I protected Ong he was the most obvious villager to me and seemed like he could be tracker.

    I'm gonna try to JK the wolf and live tomorrow.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  40. #565
    Why the hell would you jail someone you thought was tracker? Absolutely nuts.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  41. #566
    Alright don't let his partner come in and hammer me.
    I don't like this either. If I'm JK, I'm delighted if the other wolf hammers me because then we've won.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  42. #567
    baudib is the wolf.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  43. #568
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    So what do you think luco? Is spacecamp JK? Is poop a wolf with spacecamp? Or was spacecamp hard bussed?
    I'd kind of gotten to the point where spacecamp could only be a wolf with baudib, but that's looking less likely with every post

    I haven't wolf read poop at all this game, tonally he's pretty pure but I also think hard bussing in this setup would be near suicide so I would have to reevaluate if spacecamp flips wolf
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  44. #569
    Fuck me dead.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  45. #570
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Why the hell would you jail someone you thought was tracker? Absolutely nuts.
    I just thought you had 20% tracker equity and were the obvious NK.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  46. #571
    They could both be wolves having fun before they die.

    A cc from the real JK now would be winning.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  47. #572
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I don't like this either. If I'm JK, I'm delighted if the other wolf hammers me because then we've won.
    No I'm going to solo this game and nail the wolf tonight. I've literally never fake claimed in all our games, don't be a spazz now.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  48. #573
    rescind spacecamp
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  49. #574
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    They could both be wolves having fun before they die.

    A cc from the real JK now would be winning.
    Unfortunately we're one wolf short for an EPIC TRIPLE WOLF FAKE CLAIM WOOOOO
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  50. #575
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    rescind spacecamp
    Don't throw this game Ong,it's an easy win.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  51. #576
    I'd like everyone to post before we lynch anyone. If anyone else is the JK, please claim.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  52. #577
    Quote Originally Posted by Luco View Post
    Unfortunately we're one wolf short for an EPIC TRIPLE WOLF FAKE CLAIM WOOOOO
    hi five to that. My greatest wolf loss ever.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  53. #578
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I'd like everyone to post before we lynch anyone. If anyone else is the JK, please claim.
    No one else is going to claim because it's in my role card. Literally what did you think I was saying all week. I thought you would get it without hard-claiming because I didn't think you were in dumbass mode.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  54. #579
    baudib I've been practically soft claiming JK since spacecamp claimed, and I'm vanilla. It's not out of the question for me to suppose you're doing the same as me.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  55. #580
    I'm about to have my dinner. Don't lynch anyone during the next hour, we need to figure this out.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  56. #581
    I was expecting Baudib to claim JK, this is what I was waiting for. Spacecamp got to L-1 and it fizzled, but after the claim baudib really wanted him dead. The only explanation is that from that point on either baudib is the JK, or he is pretending to be. No way he could be a vanilla villager anymore.
  57. #582
    I was pretty much thinking it's always Jack but the post where Poop talks about the night kill reads like a wolf who killed Benny to incriminate Jack.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  58. #583
    So its either spacecamp and poop, or baud and...?

    Who hasnt wanted baud dead here?
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  59. #584
    I think we need to hear from spacecamp as well. He said he'd be more active now. And he has been counter claimed.
  60. #585
    Alright, I'm now off to look for who Baudib's partner is.
  61. #586
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
    ***** Vote Count *****
    \/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/

    on the block | # votes | who voted (in what post)

    baudib | 3 | monstrman (421), Poop (522), Spacecamp (545)

    Spacecamp | 2 | baudib (458), ong (501)



    EOD is in a little over 5.5 hours.
    So every living player is down to lynch baud
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  62. #587
    Quote Originally Posted by baudib View Post
    Are you a villager? If you lie I'll know.
    Baudib talking to Luco here.
    Level 0 read: this is his partner.
  63. #588
    At least we're gonna have a spicy eod
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  64. #589
    Reading Luco doesn't give me partnery vibes with Baudib. Kinda scummy ones, like he "Arooooos" at the start of game, but nothing makes me think Luco is teamed with Baudib.

    Poop was my second ping in Baudi's ISO, so I'm going to look there now.
  65. #590
    Ok so if we lynch one of the JK claims today, we either...
    a) lynch a wolf, the JK gets killed tonight, and we have two lynches to find the other wolf, or
    b) we lynch the JK,tomorrow we lynch a wolf, then final day we have to kill the wolf or we lose.

    If we ignore them both, then...
    a) we lynch a villager, the wolves kill the JK, we lynch the wolf, we have to find the other wolf on the last day,
    b) we lynch a villager, they kill a vanilla, we have two lynches to find both wolves, while still not knowing who's the JK and who's the wolf,
    c) we lynch the other wolf, we've won.

    I think we have to lynch one of the claims.

    Right now I'm leaning towards luco and baudib, which is insane considering how confident I was that spacecamp was lying.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  66. #591
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    I actually think baudib is the #1 candidate to be a wolf out of all of you. Nothing he posts seems to have any substance to it. Maybe he's just bad at reasoning dunno. Also he keeps throwing shade at me where everyone else just rightly assumes I don't know what I'm doing.

    Ong is still suspicious because he talks too much and I don't get why he was so eager to lynch spaceman, and he keeps trying to play forensic linguist with things that i don't see as informative.

    After those two, I'd rank from wolf to villager:
    Luco cause he's drunk all the time
    monstrman because his avatar is a clever ploy to appear villagery and he seems a bit defensive at times
    Jack I guess.
    Spacecamp I guess.

    Who am I missing?

    Anyways, I'm going with baudib unless I hear some good reasons not to.

    lynch baudib
    I was going to say "could be poop"

    Until I found this.
  67. #592
    baudib is still L-1, it should go without saying that he should not be hammered while spacecamp is analysing.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  68. #593
    Yes ong, we have to lynch one of the claims

    In a world where I'm a villager, tell me - are you running out of partners for both of these guys like I am?
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  69. #594
    Quote Originally Posted by Luco View Post
    Yes ong, we have to lynch one of the claims

    In a world where I'm a villager, tell me - are you running out of partners for both of these guys like I am?
    Not really. I can see you and baudib being wolves, or baudib and monstr. Then there's jack, though I doubt baudib and jack are wolves. More likely than spacecamp and jack though.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  70. #595
    I'd prefer spacecamp as wolf because the it's easier.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  71. #596
    Quote Originally Posted by monstrman View Post
    Pretty sure the play is to lynch outside of spacecamp/ong and into baudib/luco because we nail one wolf every time unless poop is the god of first time wolfing

    Jack Vance dunno, have some strange feeling he's villager I can't explain

    Nothing from Baudib convinces me and like, let's lynch spacecamp because he jk'd monstrman is a really weird angle to take

    Feel like village baudib would be running percentages here
    Quote Originally Posted by monstrman View Post
    lynch Baudib
    And I don't think it's monsterman either.

    Not poop, not monsterman, and I said not luco either. But... I think I might have dismissed Luco too quickly. Let me read jack first, because I REALLY don't think it's Ong.
  72. #597
    poop is still a villager. If we lynch a wolf today, poop should be jailed. If we don't lynch a wolf today, well I guess nobody gets jailed because we've lynched the JK.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  73. #598
    spacecamp looking a lot more like a villager right now than baudib is.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  74. #599
    I'm leaning baud right now.

    His post of 'guys lynch spacecamp please' is a horrible soft for a real jk to make, it tips your hand to the wolves yet offers nothing to the village. Feels more like wolf baud phrased it that way so he could have a different explanation for it if the spacecamp lynch went through
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  75. #600
    Quote Originally Posted by jackvance View Post
    The thing is, the post limited restriction is a point he has to make and it's totally fair. But an in-game day consists of several real life days. I don't think baudib and poop even make ten posts added up per day. And I mentioned them on purpose because those two still haven't checked in.
    I think it's jack. This is the first time Jack even mentions Baud.

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