Werewolf Blank

The roles:

There will be 3 Wolves. The wolves will have access to 24/7 wolf chat starting whenever they get their roles. Each night they have the ability to ship in a night kill. The wolves will know each other's role. The wolf win condition is to reach parity with the village.

There will be 1 Lost Wolf. The lost wolf does not know the identities of the wolves. If the lost wolf is targeted for death by the wolves, he becomes a wolf. Otherwise, he remains a villager. The lost wolf win condition is the same as whichever team he is on. If a villager, it is to eliminate all the wolves. If a wolf, it is to reach parity with the village.

There will be 1 Vigilante. This is the standard fare vigilante. He gets a bullet every odd night starting night 1. He can hold on to his shot but he may not stockpile them (thus he can only ever have 1 or 0 bullets). He is a villager and wins when all the wolves have been eliminated.

There will be 1 Bodyguard. The bodyguard guards the Seer. The bodyguard will be told the seer's identity. The seer can not die while the bodyguard lives. If you lynch/shoot/nom the seer, the bodyguard dies in his place. He is a villager and wins when all the wolves have been eliminated.

There will be 1 Seer. Every night the seer will be given a look-up which will return full role information for whichever target he chooses.

There will be 7 Villagers. Villagers win when the wolves have been eliminated.

The rules:

There will not be majority lynches but rather set end of days. I will announce 24 hours before the end of day.

You are required to post more than 5 times each game day. If you fail to reach this quota, every post under the limit will count as a standing vote against you. These votes will be added at the end of the day. So you don't begin with 5 votes against you, but you may jump up to 5 if you're on the lam.

You are also required to post fewer than 25 times for the period before I announce the clock. Every post over 25 before the clock is announced will act as a standing vote against you.

These rules will be lifted in the later days of the game and we'll go back to majority lynch rules - no post count restrictions.

To lynch:

You must bold the complete name for the lynch to count. Example:

lynch a500lbgorilla

I would ask that you kindly rescind your earlier vote if you're going to change it but it is not necessary.

I reserve the right to change shit and announce it because I can't think of anything else to include in this post and I'll prob think of it later.

1. No talking about PMs of any sort.
2. No talking about mod correspondence. I will answer questions publicly as best I can to avoid this.
3. You can be modkilled and dead players can take over for modkills. The only players who can not are wolves, bodyguards, and seers.
4. No editing of any kind. Every post should be considered carved in stone.
5. No posting about the game outside of the game thread while playing.

It is currently n0.

You bitches:

14 players

Hoopy
BooG690
bigred
OngBonga
NightGizmo
mattc16
JKDS
DanAronG
flomo
TLR
lolzzz_321
wufwugy
BennyLaRue
BankItDrew

7 Villagers
1 Lost Wolf
1 Seer
1 Bodyguard
1 Vigilante (0 bullets)
3 Wolves

All the roles are out. Everyone should have gotten a PM. If you did not receive a PM for any reason, contact me at a500lbgorilla at gmail.com

Also, if you dont want to communicate via pm, you may communicate via email but you should prob include your screenname somewhere in it so I have some idea who I'm talking to.

It's day 1. Everyone has 0 posts. There were no night actions last night.

You bitches:

14 players

Hoopy
BooG690
bigred
OngBonga
NightGizmo
mattc16
JKDS
DanAronG
flomo
TLR
lolzzz_321
wufwugy
BennyLaRue
BankItDrew

7 Villagers
1 Lost Wolf
1 Seer
1 Bodyguard
1 Vigilante (0 bullets)
3 Wolves

You bitches can post now.

This is going to be a tough game for the village, 14 players and 2 deaths each night the game will end at 6 days max - with 3.5 wolves the village has very little margin for error, especially since day 1 is a total crapshoot anyway.
Given that the lost wolf is now a villager and he has the villager's best interest in mind he should consider revealing himself towards the end of day 1 (since it is governed by time and not majority he knows exactly when the day ends even if majority hits before that) and let the vig shoot him.
Keeping the lost wolf alive is just too much of a risk for the village, and it will totally screw up any plans towards the end of the game, village is much better off with the lost wolf dead then risking having an additional wolf in mid game

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

You bitches can post now.

bigred, he's talking about you.

Bit heavy for first post TLR, where's the haha?

Lost wolf is unlikely to give up his role. You have to ask where his loyalties truly lie. Obv I'd like it if he did sac himself, but I think it's expecting a little too much. He has a cool role, I wouldn't want to give it up on day one. I know who the lost wolf is anyway, it's obviously wuf. Just look at him, he hasn't even posted yet and he's still a ldo wolf.

TLR is ldo villager, wolves never post first. Benny is probably a wolf, because wolves often post second. This game is so easy.

2 kills each night? How so.

Oh, you mean the lynch.

also, it goes without saying lynch BID

Sup bitches.

This game looks like fun, hopefully with the new post count rules we won't have inactives fucking over the village like last game but neither will we have loads of spew cluttering the thread.

One thing I'll say is that the vig should not be shooting in this game unless it's to pick off an outed wolf, too few people to fire away on hunches.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Lost wolf is unlikely to give up his role. You have to ask where his loyalties truly lie. Obv I'd like it if he did sac himself, but I think it's expecting a little too much. He has a cool role, I wouldn't want to give it up on day one.

This is very true. I also agree that TLR made a very strong villager statement to start off this game, it's highly unlikely that a wolf would advocate this strategy.

lynch rilla

Wheres the cool story and stuff? You have really underperformed here sir

Lets keep Mattc16 alive. He might get modkilled later and we could use it to revive someone cool.

Therefore lynch boog.

Day 2 story post or I afk

I was joking about TLR being ldo villager for posting first, we can take nothing from that. Wuf is definitely a wolf though.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I was joking about TLR being ldo villager for posting first, we can take nothing from that. Wuf is definitely a wolf though.

Meh, I guess it could be a level. Taken at face value, it's pretty villagerish. And on day 1 we not going to be able to see through any levels, since we don't have any real information yet. I guess my point is -- he made a great first post for avoiding a day 1 lynch (imo).

Originally Posted by Hoopy

Sup bitches.

bigred, he's talking about you.

(Worth 1/25th of my posts, imo.)

It's important to recognize that while the Bodyguard does know who the Seer is, the Seer does not know the identity of the Bodyguard. This is not a response to anyone's question, I just didn't think it was totally clear in the opening post.

Originally Posted by JKDS

Day 2 story post or I afk

lol @ you

no majority lynches? buh bye lolz

lynch lolzzz_321

No majority lynch means that someone could shoot up to 13 votes, but all those votes dissipate before the scheduled end of day, that player can survive the lynch (assuming someone else holds more votes).

Lynch BID

Night gizmo is actually useful,

we could probably get rid of Matt also.

I would like to make it to day 3 this time
One TIME!

flomo is trying?

Seems super-wolfy.

This is matt's second game, I remember his name because I'm also Matt from Birmingham. Thinking we should let him have his chance, he didn't have a chance last time.

Also, I was entertained by drew last game, I don't want to lynch him.

lynch lolz I like

Oh yeah sorry lynch lolzzz_321

Right now with such little information, I'd prefer a BID lynch because last game he proved to be no value as a villager (he hurt the village, actually, by being a villager).

One thing we should consider is the seer outing on day 1/2 since they'll have protection from the bodyguard and can lead the village effort + save confirmed villagers from being lynched.

Originally Posted by Hoopy

One thing we should consider is the seer outing on day 1/2 since they'll have protection from the bodyguard and can lead the village effort + save confirmed villagers from being lynched.

Bad, bad idea. If the wolves try to nom the outed seer, the bodyguard dies instead. Then the wolves have a clear path. Obviously you look suspicious for saying this, but obviously it could also be genuine ignorance of the bodyguard role.

All spcials must stay in hiding for as long as possible.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Bad, bad idea. If the wolves try to nom the outed seer, the bodyguard dies instead. Then the wolves have a clear path. Obviously you look suspicious for saying this, but obviously it could also be genuine ignorance of the bodyguard role.

All spcials must stay in hiding for as long as possible.

Yup I read over the bodyguards rules and obviously my idea is bad.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

This is matt's second game, I remember his name because I'm also Matt from Birmingham. Thinking we should let him have his chance, he didn't have a chance last time.

Also, I was entertained by drew last game, I don't want to lynch him.

lynch lolz I like

Wants to keep drew alive and the noob, smelling awfully wolfy.

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

flomo is trying?

Seems super-wolfy.

I am not a wolf, just a regular villager.

Since rilla is not playing I have to pull some pounds.

hopefully ill be able to participate a bit more this game!! anyway, the bodyguard is basically an automated guardian of sorts right? so the seer is always guarded until the bodyguard dies. therefore, i think the best plan of action for the seer is to stay in hiding until the bodyguard is killed, then reveal everything they know to the thread. this way, we are guaranteed seer information until we lose the bodyguard.

With regards to the lost wolf, do we know if the wolves have tried to kill them and has been converted (i.e the playerlist will show 4 wolves, not 3 wolves 1 lost wolf?) if so, they should not come out, as we will know if they have been converted, so easy lynch!!

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Bad, bad idea. If the wolves try to nom the outed seer, the bodyguard dies instead. Then the wolves have a clear path. Obviously you look suspicious for saying this, but obviously it could also be genuine ignorance of the bodyguard role.

All spcials must stay in hiding for as long as possible.

No. In this game; given that the bodyguard, the seer's look ups, and there are 3 wolves alive, the ideal out for the seer is day 3. I could prove this if necessary, but most of my thoughts last game werent read/discussed so meh.

Matt that didnt make sense at all

Gonna lynch lollz and drew soon if they dont post :/ I refuse to have an end game like last game

really? i thought it did :/! what parts, ill try and clarify what i meant!!

Originally Posted by mattc16

anyway, the bodyguard is basically an automated guardian of sorts right? so the seer is always guarded until the bodyguard dies. therefore, i think the best plan of action for the seer is to stay in hiding until the bodyguard is killed, then reveal everything they know to the thread. this way, we are guaranteed seer information until we lose the bodyguard.

With regards to the lost wolf, do we know if the wolves have tried to kill them and has been converted (i.e the playerlist will show 4 wolves, not 3 wolves 1 lost wolf?) if so, they should not come out, as we will know if they have been converted, so easy lynch!!

We're guaranteed seer information whether he outs before or after the bg dies, its just a matter of when we need that information.

With the lost wolf, we wont know which player was converted in that scenario. Honestly TLR's plan is the most +EV for the village...but its also super unfun for that player and I dont advocate that kind of strategy. Its about as good as never posting and somehow winning as a wolf.

Originally Posted by JKDS

No. In this game; given that the bodyguard, the seer's look ups, and there are 3 wolves alive, the ideal out for the seer is day 3. I could prove this if necessary, but most of my thoughts last game werent read/discussed so meh.

I don't want to talk too deeply about seer strat in case it helps the wolves, but we should be aware he can still die at night without warning if both the vig and wolves target him, seer should at least be aware of this possibility.

Whoever the seer is, just don't get yourself lynched! That would be a start...

Looking at it now you're right, I presumed that the wolves target would be revealed at the end of the night.

I like TLRs plan, as long as the lost wolf is happy to out himself, theres a scenario where having him alive at the end could lose us the game.

Already got this game figured out homes

Wolves:

Ong
Mattc

Villagers:

Flomo
JKDS

Should be lynched:

Lolz
BID

This is my 7th post.

You're from Birmingham? Unlucky.

A few thoughts.

1. The seer shouldn't out until ay Tue earliest day 3 to guarantee 3 look ups, assuming they're all alive which is unlikely so maybe not even then.
2. As the lone wolf never outs (and selfishly why should he) suggesting he should is not actually villagery. Ducy?
3. The vig will and should shoot, special roles are rare, enjoy it when you get it, I sure would (looks at ong and imagines target on his forehead).
4. I won't be around too much as I'm on holiday but the post count rule should keep the thread length manageable and I won't get modkilled but don't grab your pitchforks prematurely, I will keep up.

These early days are going to be weird with the new post-count rules if we have a lot of silent players. If we get close to the end of the day and we don't have a lynch that will beat at least 5 votes, we'll have no choice but to pick between one of the silent players.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

2. As the lone wolf never outs (and selfishly why should he) suggesting he should is not actually villagery. Ducy?

Crap, good point. I still think TLR actually believed that it's best for the village and wants the lost wolf to out and get lynched, but it is a pretty easy misdirection for a wolf to make. TLR is back to "unknown" in my book, I guess.

I think I figured out after last game ended, but was waiting till this game to make the point: lynching modkills is wrong. It's just a wasted kill opportunity for the village. The game boils down to a certain amount of targeting of potential wolves (lynches and shots) and a certain amount of targeting of non-potential wolves (noms), and foregoing a potential wolf-kill with a lynch of a modkill is just wrong in this regard, unless there are other circumstances going on

In this game, it sounds like modkills will be revived with a different villager though, so we shouldn't worry about that. In fact, it would be better to not lynch modkills since they would just result in a return of an active villager. That is, if I'm reading the rules right

Originally Posted by wufwugy

I think I figured out after last game ended, but was waiting till this game to make the point: lynching modkills is wrong. It's just a wasted kill opportunity for the village. The game boils down to a certain amount of targeting of potential wolves (lynches and shots) and a certain amount of targeting of non-potential wolves (noms), and foregoing a potential wolf-kill with a lynch of a modkill is just wrong in this regard, unless there are other circumstances going on

In this game, it sounds like modkills will be revived with a different villager though, so we shouldn't worry about that. In fact, it would be better to not lynch modkills since they would just result in a return of an active villager. That is, if I'm reading the rules right

I felt the same way last game about lynching modkills. Either you're hunting wolves or you're going to lose the game.

I read it the same way, modkills don't hurt the village anymore.

Also, your new sig is fantastic.

Originally Posted by JKDS

We're guaranteed seer information whether he outs before or after the bg dies, its just a matter of when we need that information.

With the lost wolf, we wont know which player was converted in that scenario. Honestly TLR's plan is the most +EV for the village...but its also super unfun for that player and I dont advocate that kind of strategy. Its about as good as never posting and somehow winning as a wolf.

WW is a team game, and as such you should do what is best for your team to win, not what is the best for your own survival, if the best strategy your team to win is to expose yourself and get shot that is what you should do.
Imagine an NBA player who is hurt and cannot shoot straight but he is hiding this from his coach and remains on the court instead of having an healthy player replace him, would you justify that by 'but he wanted to play so it is valid'? If I was the lost wolf I would 100% out myself in the end of day 1, unless I was convinced it is not a good move for the village.

Regarding seer outing, there is no 'optimal' time as it depends on how many wolves are alive, how many lookups are a live etc.. as with every game we have to trust the seer to figure out the best time to out himself.

Ong's point about the chance of both the seer and the bodyguard dying in the same night is valid, however this is a risk we will have to take and it is a small risk anyway.

My opinion about the vig is that the best use for the village is for him to take confirmed shots at wolves (or lost wolves), usually the vigs ends up helping the wolves more then the village

Surprisingly I think this day one gives us some info, as there is at least some game discussion based on strategy.

After last game it is very clear we have to lynch BID, he is a useless villager so there is no harm to village by lynching him, and if he is a wolf its an added bonus.
The fact that he is such a useless villager makes him a hard to track wolf, as it is very easy to play exactly the same as a wolf (cliffnotes on BID play - dont read the thread, throw in random lynches and somethimes a post made up of random words)

Originally Posted by flomo

Wants to keep drew alive and the noob, smelling awfully wolfy.

this is sick logic

flomo is a villager and ong is a wolf

lynch ong

FWIW

wolves see an easy lynch in me because it's an easy bandwagon to jump on

ie. lynch bid obv ldo gg wolves

if you are a villager, don't do it, you're essentially giving the wolves a huuuge advantage. im actually sort of a conductor for wolves like that.

Its not an NBA game though TLR. There is no prize for winning, and no penalty for losing. It is clear that what you want is the best for the village, but its far too cutthroat for a fun game. Id rather win this game without forcing a player to kill themselves and abandon the game just because he got unlucky with the random number generator.

Re seer outting: Yes there is an optimal time, and if you dont believe a specific day you can certainly believe a range of optimal days. For instance, it is certainly not optimal to out today. They have no look ups, and the body guard is still alive. In addition, it is not optimal to out on day 7...because if we reach day 7 we must have also reached parity.

It also wouldn't be that hard to make an exhaustive list of seer actions and determine ev that way. I might do this later for fun

Originally Posted by JKDS

Its not an NBA game though TLR. There is no prize for winning, and no penalty for losing. It is clear that what you want is the best for the village, but its far too cutthroat for a fun game. Id rather win this game without forcing a player to kill themselves and abandon the game just because he got unlucky with the random number generator.

I understand it is not fun for the lost wolf, I also think it will not be fun for villagers to play till end game only to have the game decided by the wolves hitting the lost wolf, anyway it is the lost wolves decision, for me personally I think hunting down the lost wolf should be higher village priority then hunting down a wolf at this stage

Originally Posted by JKDS

Re seer outting: Yes there is an optimal time, and if you dont believe a specific day you can certainly believe a range of optimal days. For instance, it is certainly not optimal to out today. They have no look ups, and the body guard is still alive. In addition, it is not optimal to out on day 7...because if we reach day 7 we must have also reached parity.

It also wouldn't be that hard to make an exhaustive list of seer actions and determine ev that way. I might do this later for fun

Just for academic debate purposes, for any given set of inputs there is an optimal time for the seer to come out, for example your argument about not outing today since he has no lookup knowledge and the bodyguard is still alive can also be true on day 4 (assume a case when the wolves happen to kill every lookup the same night the lookup took place)

Thats preposterous. Its nowhere close to the same on day 4 as it would be on day 1. The decrease in the number of players should be enough to easily verify this. I have to assume youre just having fun with me at this point.

@lost wolf: Why would you opt for the lostwolf to out at the end of the day...when he'd be a confirmed villager if he outted at the beginning? The vig's gonna shoot him, so its foolish in most situations for a wolf to fakeout as him.

In addition, a compromise is to allow for him to out later in the game. This lets him play the game a little, as well as gives us someone we should be able to trust on the day he outs. One bullet wont change the amount of days we have to win either way, and the benefit of having a confirmed villager later in the game should compensate for the risk of having him nommed.

Lynch JKDS

Obvious wolf is obvious.

But seriously, BID is a liability.

Originally Posted by JKDS

Thats preposterous. Its nowhere close to the same on day 4 as it would be on day 1. The decrease in the number of players should be enough to easily verify this. I have to assume youre just having fun with me at this point.

@lost wolf: Why would you opt for the lostwolf to out at the end of the day...when he'd be a confirmed villager if he outted at the beginning? The vig's gonna shoot him, so its foolish in most situations for a wolf to fakeout as him.

In addition, a compromise is to allow for him to out later in the game. This lets him play the game a little, as well as gives us someone we should be able to trust on the day he outs. One bullet wont change the amount of days we have to win either way, and the benefit of having a confirmed villager later in the game should compensate for the risk of having him nommed.

My original thought process is that if he will be outed early we would get less valuable discussion, however I think that your idea is better, the lost wolf can out himself and we can have him as confirmed villager, if he is turned we would know and lynch him, and the vig can shoot him at any point in the game, and anyway the wolves will not turn him if the village knows who he is

The downside is that if the vig dies we need to waste a lynch

It is also a funny catch 22 for the lost wolf, now his best interest is to out himself, but if he is turned then his previous outing has hurt his team

Originally Posted by BooG690

But seriously, BID is a liability.

Can't believe I'm saying this but I agree with BooG, bankitdrew is the best lynch for today.

lynch BankItDrew

Thinking about the lost wolf, the problem with him outing early is that we are essentially giving up a villager to the wolves for free. Either with having the vig shoot them or wolves converting that night.

On the other hand the wolves have about a 20% chnace of hitting the lost wolf in the first 2 days assuming they make a near random guess each night, also have to factor in that they may go for seer/bodyguard instead perceiving them as more valuable.

With numbers so tight I think it's better to keep the lost wolf around until day 3 when the vig has another bullet and review the situation then, even if they get turned n1/2 with longer time limits I think we can still pick them out as it's hard to switch teams without changing post style somewhat. Also get some confirmed villager thoughts on day 3.

All this assumes that they will out for the team of course.

Originally Posted by Hoopy

Thinking about the lost wolf, the problem with him outing early is that we are essentially giving up a villager to the wolves for free. Either with having the vig shoot them or wolves converting that night.

Lost wolf is a wolf in the sense that the village must kill him
1. If he is nommed by the wolves he is turned by the wolf
2. If he remains till endgame thats a huge risk for the village, since if the wolves get him it will be game over to the village (assuming there is no more the 2 member advantage to the village which usually happens near end game

So the conclusion is that the village needs to get the lost wolf and get him early, there are total of 14 players in the game, by day 3 we will be at 9, worse case then is 6 villagers to 3 wolves and game over if we lynch a villager and the wolves hit the lost wolf, by day 3 we might not have the vig anymore

Is this what we do now? Dive right into heavy (and mostly baseless) analysis? Y U SUCK OUT DA FUN?

TLR is right, the best move for the village is for the Lost Wolf to out himself. The best strategy isn't the most fun way to play the game but it's the best strategy.

I wish we knew how long the days are. I want to burn through my 25 posts but feel like I need a reserve.

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

Is this what we do now? Dive right into heavy (and mostly baseless) analysis? Y U SUCK OUT DA FUN

The days of the day 1 crapshoot are no more.

Originally Posted by BooG690

The days of the day 1 crapshoot are no more.

So why the bolding lynch of JKDS?

JKDS, TLR, Wuf and Ong will all post substantial amounts of info and are not good early day targets.

We can leave BID for the vig since very few will complain if he is shot.

rescind
BID

Lynch Boog

The vote count is going to stay in effect. If you run up to 25 posts, just sit quietly until the clock is announced. Thank you for your time.

Drew you're funny, wolves want to lynch you, then you cliam the one person who doesn't want to lynch you is a wolf!

Still don't want to lynch you yet.

Lolz please.

wuf, why do you think im a wolf? ive posted 3 times. i got confused with the lost wolf and whether he was outed, how does that make me suspicious?

I AM NOT A WOLF Y R U NIGNOGS TRYING TO LYNCH ME?

lynch hoopy

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Drew you're funny, wolves want to lynch you, then you cliam the one person who doesn't want to lynch you is a wolf!

Still don't want to lynch you yet.

Lolz please.

one of these days i'll be an asset

The lost wolf debate is pointless IMO, aside from Keith and tlr I cant think of anyone who would out themselves this early, we all play because we enjoy it, but of course him outing is best for e village.

As for the first lynch, without a big fuck up by somebody it's hard to see past BID after his previous performance.

Has anybody not posted yet?

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

one of these days i'll be an ass

Fyp

Wheres mr redbig?

You mean bignred?

HERE I AM!!!!

I have some good news and some bad news. The good news is I'm going to soul read some wolves (they're the ones poking me with the stick...the whole time) but the bad news is I'm on vacation in Bonaire. That's an island off the coast of Venezuela. Going to be scuba diving all day and drinking at night so don't expect me to be logging in all day long. I'll probably got on once in the afternoon and once at night (if you're lucky and I'm not...).

More multiposts for that crucial five!

Oh, I'll be back on Saturday so that means what? Maybe day 2?

I'll check back in tonight but I'm liking a lolz lynch. A wolf BID should be pretty damn easy to spot (not AS clueless due to coaching) so let's get rid of an unreadable player first.

Also, flomo is trying for once which is odd. Prob not seer since, you know, he let himself get lynched last time...

@wufwugy, your sig just got me weird looks from the lady sitting near me at the tiki bar (only place for the internets)

I'm good with lynching anyone with a "B" in their name.

All of them are good bets at this time.

A wolf wouldn't see the harm in keeping me around. I'm going to lynch you people.