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  1. #826
    VC 4.2

    3 - gabe - L-2

    gabe - bigred, jack, benny

    > 31 hrs until deadline
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  2. #827
    Quote Originally Posted by jackvance View Post
    Yeah I think everyone has had their say. The real discussion will happen tomorrow.

    lynch gabe
    Not exactly. I have been buried in meetings the last two days and have been trying to figure out how I am going to get back from Austin, Tx to Atlanta. I am stuck in a hotel today so should, for the first time in the game, have a decent amount of time to look things over.

    Also, after just skimming the thread I didn't see a lot from either BID or Bigred.

    As for today there are already enough votes to get Gabe lynched so let's just leave it there for now and let me look over some stuff and provide my thoughts.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  3. #828
    I'll look over the thread one last time this evening.

    bigred could do with actually posting some thoughts before the end of day.
  4. #829
    lynch gabe
  5. #830
    bigred's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Most likely it's Hoopy, Benny, Gator, and Gabe and they're frantically waving their hands around demanding more discussion to try to create confusion and a few misdirection all under the guise of "discussion is +EV for village."
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    I'll look over the thread one last time this evening.

    bigred could do with actually posting some thoughts before the end of day.
    WHATS THAT WOLVES?!?! DO YOU THINK BIGRED SHOULD POST MORE TODAY?
    LOL OPERATIONS
  6. #831
    Bigred, why do you think discussion is NOT +ev for the village?
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  7. #832
    gabe's Avatar
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    ong can we get a day extension ? the village isn't thinking this one through

    rescind all votes for gabe
    pelion
  8. #833
    Day has been extended by four minutes, deadline is now Thursday 11.04pm UK, 6.04pm ET
    Last edited by OngBonga; 02-12-2014 at 04:57 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  9. #834
    flomo's Avatar
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    So
    are we lynching Gator or Hoopy tomorrow?
  10. #835
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    hoopy. pretty sure he's a wolf over gator. like, really sure.
  11. #836
    Gator said he wanted to time to make his case. Hoopy might be a better lynch tomorrow if Gator makes a good case for himself but I don't see us riding this game out without eventually lynching gator so might as well get that one over with too.
  12. #837
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    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    hoopy. pretty sure he's a wolf over gator. like, really sure.
    are you trying to steal my MVP for this game away from me?
  13. #838
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    Too hungover to think hard right now, but Daven and Gabe top my suspect list. Hoopy looks really bad based on yesterday's actions.
    This is on the beginning of day 3.
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    he hasn't stood out to me as much as most others so nothing yet. I am looking over his posts now.
    24hr later in response to me asking him what he thought about daven.
  14. #839
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    He was too hungover to think hard.
  15. #840
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flomo View Post
    are you trying to steal my MVP for this game away from me?
    Steal? You never had it.
  16. #841
    OK, let's get this started.

    Wolves - Gabe plus 3 more
    Villagers - JV, Flomo and myself

    That means 3 of Hoopy, Keith, BID, Bigred, and Benny are wolves. I am going to break down my thoughts on all 3 plus Gabe.

    Day 1:
    Benny: Wasn't in the game at this point so nothing to go off of.

    Keith: Him going after Gabe and vice versa looks very much like one of them has to be a villager, however there are also signs that it could be staged including this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    I think the village are going to be reluctant to lynch you today but Luco ?? wtf.... he's observing and picked up Aubrey with her JV comment. I prefer a jyms lynch . If any vote on JV's wagon was opportunistic it was his when he said that Aubrey had made a mistake because she was reading two threads but then lynching the person(JV) that she was talking about.
    rescind Gabe
    lynch jyms
    Gabe still had heat on him at this point so Keith suddenly switching to Luco looks more like a wolf that got scared he went after his fellow wolf a tad too hard. It's all I could find so Keith looks pretty much like a villager at this point.

    Bigred: I'm torn on bigred through Day 1: He, like BID seems to flow back and forth between flippant and helpful, but I can't find anything super wolfy from him so I have to put him in the villager camp for now.


    BID: Looks very wolfy to me. Tries to look like a spewmonkey by voting for Jyms then rilla then Aubrey but also seems to want to try and add value which makes the whole thing look staged to me. For example, votes for Aubrey with this post:

    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    Aubrey, you're a shady mother. Pretending not to know stuff...

    lynch aubrey
    Then follows with this:

    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    Aubrey makes good points so far and I disagree with gator about there being better options than xxxxxxxx. O rly? Who then? Because it's day 1 and literally a crapshoot.
    But he doesn't rescind his vote, which I would think a villager would do.

    I also find the following two posts very interesting:

    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    This is very different from wufs typical early game. On one hand I'm suspect of the change in style but on the other hand I think the village would be better served if there was more quality content than garbage and short pointless posts. Looking back through the thread is a pain in the ass when you're trying to peg wolves.

    I rescinded on aubrey because she just never seems like a wolf to me. Maybe it's her personality, or maybe she's just good at looking harmless.

    Jyms is the opposite to me and he's on an aubrey wagon, so I'm siding with him being a wolf.

    The gabe vs keith thing is awesome to read and I'm leaning gabe as a wolf between the two because that guy is a close second to jyms wolfy style. I think it's rare that both are villagers.

    Just a few notes off the top of my head:

    Rong is a villager
    gator scares me because he's gator
    Daven is looking wolfy because he thinks aubs is a wolf and I think she's safe.
    I find the bolded part interesting because he makes a point of saying one of the two will be a wolf when the reality is, in many cases, this turns out to be villager on villager. It's like he knows one is a wolf and is trying to build up credibility for the next post.

    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    I'm finding myself contradicting myself. Sort of. rong bolded aubs and I think aubs is a lock villager and I said that rong is a villager. Is this a contradiction? Doesn't matter. I think they're both villagers and I don't understand the aubs hate by a lot of people early on. I bolded her for fun tbh.

    I don't always agree with bigred but when I do, he makes good points. /meme

    He said he preferred a luco lynch to a keith because at least villager keith is good at quality content. For this reason, I'm voting gabe in the gabe vs. keith fiasco.

    lynch gabe

    my next in line are jyms and daven.

    I may be choosing players to stick with early on as far as an alliance goes, just because I think they're so villagery this game. This includes: keith, rilla, and aubs.

    Also, ong, what's going on with chippy? The fact that he's not interested makes me think that position is villagery too.
    This post was right after the one above and caught my attention because of his first sentence. Why would a villager feel like they need to call out that they are all over the place? Especially on day 1. I also think his comment about Chippy is interesting if that role was actually a wolf. It's almost like he is explaining why he doesn't want to vote for chippy.

    He then puts out a separate post yelling at Bigred. Trying to show some separation?

    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    Screw you, guy. It's Day 1. What did you expect in the first half of day 1? Accurate epic soul reads?
    Now this one:

    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    I don't agree with this at all. That team is in my village camp.

    While on the shitter, I started thinking about how you are playing so differently this game, and I don't remember playing a game where you were a wolf. This is the strongest read I have on someone on Day 1 so...
    rescind
    lynch wuffy
    The "team" he mentioned was Daven, Chippy and Luco. How could chippy, who hadn't posted at all yet, be in his villager camp?

    Hoopy: Wolf. The following are all subtle defenses of Keith, BID and Chippy/Benny:

    This one was right after Ong announced Benny would be taking over for chippy:
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Good outcome for the village, everyone rescind your CE votes.

    I like daven's wave of posts, particularly the vote/rescind on aubrey.
    He mentions Aubrey here but the same argument could be applied to BID:
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    When was the last time a wolf played dumb? The aubrey case looks non existent to me.
    subtle defense of Keith:
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Chipeater being afk doesn't really matter right now, modkill will take care of him if necessary. Talking about him too much just gives wolves an easy way to look active.

    lynch flomo because his vote for keith is sketchy.
    The following post REALLY stood out to me:

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    I think that longer days are an advantage to the wolves because it gives them time to plan and wolf hunt
    Self hunting wolves would be great.
    What is interesting about this is the timeframe between Keith's post and Hoopy's. It looks like a fellow wolf pointed it out when making a case against keith and Hoopy decided to use it here to look villagery.

    Next is this:
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Not lynching gabe day 1 guys, unless he starts howling.

    rescind flomo

    lynch jyms
    Why would he say "unless he starts howling"? When would a day 1 wolf that is caught start howling?

    Then this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    I think I like an Aubrey lynch the most from that list with Luco right behind. I don't buy Aubrey's early PM questions.
    Thing is most of the suspicion about the PM's question was linked to JV who's now a confirmed villager. Also she's top of the post count which is unusual. I'm not seeing any reason to get rid of her right now.
    His suspicion of Aubrey goes directly against his position on her above. If furthers my belief that he was helping BID and not focused on Aubrey.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    I don't see why AUbrey can't be a wolf just because JV isn't (assuming that he isn't)
    Yeah I mean I guess it's possible she decided to ask about PM's already knowing the answer but in my experience wolves haven't really done that much. More often they speculate about various game mechanics that are quite obvious.
    He then has to back off when Rong calls him out on his flaw in the thought process.

    In the below post he tries to make himself look villagery while jumping on the jyms bandwagon. He had recently jumped off of the jyms bandwagon so this looks pretty opportunistic to me.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Nobody else hopped on the Gator wagon, make of that what you will.

    rescind Gator
    lynch jyms

    Day 1 has been good so far, how often do we have 2 confirmed villagers this early?



    Gabe: Jumped out with an attack on keith, left for a while, then picked up again when he got back even though keith was getting some major heat.

    The below post is suspicious because Gabe, of all people, should know that Chippy/Benny could have any role.
    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    if chip was a wolf he's so much more likely to show up. if Benny gets subbed into the game he's the most likely villager out of everyone. suggesting he would be suspicious is anti village, moreso early in the game.
    The below post is interesting because wolves love to throw villagers and fellow wolves into the same suspicion thought. It allows them to pick the villager between the two or jump on the wolf if that one take off.

    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    wuf and hoopy are worrisome when they aren't posting much. it's hard to lock them down..
    The below is interesting for two reasons: In the first part he mentions BID in the list, but doesn't say anything about him in his analysis and in the second part he, once again mentions Hoopy in between two others.

    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    i have 3 votes for me : Drew, Keith and jyms. I have a good feeling people won't pile on to that wagon...

    jyms has never voted for me early, which makes me think he is actually suspicious of me, which he maybe would never do as a wolf

    no one seems eager to roll on crazy Keith so rescind and lynch luco


    rong / hoopy / bigred haven't left much info the village can use in the coming days
    So after day 1 I have Keith in my villager camp; Gabe, Hoopy, and BID in my wolf camp; and bigred/Benny (with a strong lean towards Benny) as undecided.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  17. #842
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    tl;dr
  18. #843
    Oh. I guess you can fake walls of text.
  19. #844
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    He was too hungover to think hard.
    +

    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    hoopy. pretty sure he's a wolf over gator. like, really sure.
    =

    gator attacks me? wtf

    I was defending you because I think you're a villager, and yet I'm still a wolf in your eyes.

    This is all without mentioning that I was on gabe early on.
  20. #845
    Guys, it's cool. Gator just confirmed the wolves are Gabe, Gator, Hoopy and bigred.

    Thanks, buddy. Proceed with the lunchin!
  21. #846
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    I'm sticking with benny for the remainder of the game.
  22. #847
    gabe's Avatar
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    rescind pelion

    can we do a silent vote
  23. #848
    flomo's Avatar
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    So what happened on Day 2?
  24. #849
    flomo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    He was too sober to think hard.
    yes? No?
    Yes
  25. #850
    If no one has anything else to say I'll put the final vote on gabe.
  26. #851
    Quote Originally Posted by flomo View Post
    So what happened on Day 2?
    A lot happened on day 2. I just didn't have time to analyze that day
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  27. #852
    flomo's Avatar
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    lynch Gabe


  28. #853
    Gabe has been lynched!

    The village were getting desperate, but lucky for them the seer had a dying wish - tear gabe to pieces - and the village did just that. They tied his limbs to four horses, and at the sound of a shotgun blast, the horses pulled away. But rather than gabe getting ripped apart, he turned into a werewolf and had sufficient strength to force the horses to stop. In the ensuing panic, the dude with the shotgun took aim and shot, but gabe just laughed. But the smile was soon wiped off his face when a horse kicked him in the head, knocking him unconcious.

    The village threw him on the fire and danced to a drumbeat while smoking peyote.

    Gabe was bulletproof wolf

    It's n4! 24 hrs and a bit takes us to Friday 5pm UK, midday ET.

    bitches -

    bigred
    bankitdrew
    hoopy
    jack
    keith
    flomo
    benny
    gator

    villagers:wolves 5:3

    dead bitches -

    jyms - vanilla - lynched d1
    wuf - angel - nommed n1
    aubrey - vanilla - lynched d2
    rong - vanilla - shot n2
    rilla - vig - nommed n2
    daven - vanilla - lynched d3
    luco - seer - nommed n3

    gabe - bulletproof wolf - lynched d4
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  29. #854
    Huh, this is just a statement and I'm not feeling particularly butthurt or bitchy about it but win conditions for the village are tough in this one if the wolves had a 3:1 ratio, a bulletproof wolf, an Alpha and possible another who can't be looked up. And we only got masons? Fuck.
  30. #855
    bigred's Avatar
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    Lol. You, gator, and hoopy are trying so god damn hard to be villagery.
  31. #856
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Lol. You, gator, and hoopy are trying so god damn hard to be villagery.
    And you can't be bothered with that?
  32. #857
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Lol. You, gator, and hoopy are trying so god damn hard to be villagery.
    That's true, but it's because I'm a villger. The other two...
  33. #858
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Lol. You, gator, and hoopy are trying so god damn hard to be villagery.
    Gotta admit that you're wolfing hard BR, no lame half assed wolfin from you.
  34. #859
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Huh, this is just a statement and I'm not feeling particularly butthurt or bitchy about it but win conditions for the village are tough in this one if the wolves had a 3:1 ratio, a bulletproof wolf, an Alpha and possible another who can't be looked up. And we only got masons? Fuck.
    Another wolf that can't be looked up?
  35. #860
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Another wolf that can't be looked up?
    Yeah, whatever this post means.

    http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...20#post2193020
  36. #861
    flomo's Avatar
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    Made a fresh batch of grenadine, drunk
    snow falling from the sky
    $14 valentines's day ticket to ride fresh pow
    game closed for me to recover, repaet

    lets ride
  37. #862
    flomo's Avatar
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    We wake up tomorrow
    4:3

    lets do this
  38. #863
    Who ded?
  39. #864
    Sorry guys, had friends round.

    And so after a night of heavy drinking and dancing, everyone woke up with a stinking hangover. Well, almost everyone. As the village took turns to complain about their headache and the weather, someone pointed out jack hadn't showed up this morning. After a few puzzled looks and a brief headcount, the villagers decided that the wolves must have nommed him, but noone wanted to check his house because bacon sandwiches were being cooked and noone wanted to see a half eaten body before breakfast.

    Aftre brekkie, four cups of tea and two spliffs, someone decided to go and check up on jack. His house had been broken into, and there were large wolfy bloody footprints leading out of the garden.

    "Yeah fuck it, he's dead. I'm going back to the green to see what's for lunch."

    Jack has been nommed!
    He was village mason!


    bitches -

    bigred
    bankitdrew
    hoopy
    keith
    flomo
    benny
    gator

    villagers:wolves 4:3

    dead bitches -


    jyms - vanilla - lynched d1
    wuf - angel - nommed n1
    aubrey - vanilla - lynched d2
    rong - vanilla - shot n2
    rilla - vig - nommed n2
    daven - vanilla - lynched d3
    luco - seer - nommed n3

    gabe - bulletproof wolf - lynched d4
    jack - mason - nommed n4


    It's day 5 bitches! 4 days = Tuesday 11pm UK, 6pm ET.

    4 to lynch!
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  40. #865
    With flomo, bid and probably an absent Keith as my fellow villagers, don't know how much useful discussion we're getting today. So, fuck it.

    lynch bigred?
  41. #866
    rescind bigred

    Ha...oh, Hoopy and your timing tells. Just like Werewolf Blank.

    Hoopy has been on since Ong posted and viewing the thread since I posted. He left just now without comment, likely to the wolf den.
  42. #867
    bigred's Avatar
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    So we lynch Hoopy, than Gator/Benny in no particular order while we ignore their attempts to throw each other under the bus and steal a village vote.
    LOL OPERATIONS
  43. #868
    bigred's Avatar
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    I'll wait to hear thought from Flomo and Keith but I think the plan is clear.
    LOL OPERATIONS
  44. #869
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    rescind bigred

    Ha...oh, Hoopy and your timing tells. Just like Werewolf Blank.

    Hoopy has been on since Ong posted and viewing the thread since I posted. He left just now without comment, likely to the wolf den.
    It's just possible that I could leave the thread open at times without actually scanning or reading.

    You're really reaching here benny, the wolves know I'm the easiest mislynch right now.
  45. #870
    Now I'm almost sure the wolves are Gator/bigred/benny.

    Anyone who tries to make this a quick day isn't helping the village.

    Off to bed since it's 2am here, back tomorrow to start piecing this thing together.
  46. #871
    flomo's Avatar
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    Any one think that Gator is a villager?
  47. #872
    Quote Originally Posted by flomo View Post
    Any one think that Gator is a villager?
    I don't think so.

    I know so.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  48. #873
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    It's just possible that I could leave the thread open at times without actually scanning or reading.
    That's probably exactly what happened. Your last activity was 6:53pm ET. Ong's post was at 7:01. And while I could see you were still in the thread, the 6:53 timestamp means you couldn't have seen my post at 7:16 - the Last Activity time refreshes when you do.

    I'm hunting wolves, Hoopy. That's what we have to be doing; saying things, gauging reactions, trying to trip people up.
  49. #874
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    I'm hunting wolves, Hoopy. That's what we have to be doing; saying things, gauging reactions, trying to trip people up.
    Let the hunt begin then.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    @ the people who want to lynch luco or keith, I'd prefer a Luco lynch. I think Keith, regardless of a role, has a lot of information to give via his analysis. Villager keith is helpful. Wolf keith would have a lot of posts to give some leads.

    Also, the whole Luco chipeater defense seems like an easy way for a wolf to get some villager points. Not sure what to think if wuf's reaction to that post. Pretty silly wuf. I know he's been messing around with a new approach.
    Hmmm if bigred and keith are wolves then would BR defend so obviously here. Unlikely.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Bolded part -Def a mental note for later in the game.

    Gator, what does your role pm say? You're being far too cordial towards me. Does it read "You are bigred's bff, buddy!"?
    Can't remember many interactions this game between Gator & bigred apart from jokes, need to check that when I go through gator's posts.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    After a few rescans of the first few pages, this is the biggest red flag to me. Asking people who they think are wolfy is a great way to be "involved" without revealing too much. Good wolf tactics. lynch hoopy

    The only stronger argument I agree with for a day 1 lynch is Gabe's point about lynching a JV bandwagoner. Wolves would love to get a villager JV killed early on.
    Misrepresents what I said. Agrees with gabe!
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Man oh man. Gabe has to be near the top vote count now that everyone is rescinding JV. As off as Gabe seems, a day 1 Gabe lynch is like folding AA preflop.
    Villagers and wolves would say this, nothing suspicious here.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Sorry Jyms but your bandwagon gives us a great start to day 2.
    Why? Seems like something to say to look helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    I hate to say it but I think Gator is leaning towards villager right now.
    Hmmmmm.......
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    This!

    was waiting for day to point this out.

    lynch hoopy
    Still going after me.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Assuming they are masons...anyone else starting to wonder the validity of the claim? I think it's less than 5% chance but still...

    I'm ok with switching to Daven. In my mind, a lynch for Daven is also a lynch for Hoopy.
    Given that both of us are villagers this is pretty funny if BR is actually wolfin.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Oh, so we lynch gabe and let the wolves give us another confirmed villager on d5 to evaluate who to lynch. this should be a quick day.
    Quick days help wolves.
  50. #875
    Soooooo many fluff posts by bigred, like almost half of them.

    Take a look at day 2 when gabe kinda attacked BR and then soon after Gator put the 5th vote on aubrey. I thought that was important yesterday but it could just be bias on my part.
  51. #876
    Quote Originally Posted by flomo View Post
    Any one think that Gator is a villager?
    I'd be surprised if he's not a wolf.

    Who do you think the other wolves are?
  52. #877
    I'm ok with both bigred and Gator being wolves, although I do have to go through Gator's posts again. His long post yesterday was vapid. Hoopy, you're the one I'm the least confident in. You're a great wolf if you are one.

    My problem is this - for you to be a villager, it means BID or Keith have to be a wolf. I really can't see a BID wolf going after Gabe the way he did. If Keith is a wolf, he's doing an amazing job. The only real mark against him is that he hasn't been here.
  53. #878
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    I really can't see a BID wolf going after Gabe the way he did.
    When did Drew go hard after Gabe?
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  54. #879
    Bigred day 2 analysis:


    Posted the below on night 1. Makes it look like he is ready to analyze stuff but I am not sure I ever saw any analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Sorry Jyms but your bandwagon gives us a great start to day 2.
    Provides to lynch candidates (both villagers) but no reasoning (btw, Gabe made two posts immediately after this jumping on that thought process).
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Based on the jyms lynch, I think today is a lynch daven or hoopy day
    Best analysis so far imo
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    I hate to say it but I think Gator is leaning towards villager right now.
    This looks like a hedge on a fellow wolf and iirc flomo HAD confirmed prior to this which shows he really isn't paying attention.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Also, can someone explain to me why BID is lock villager?

    I still find Flomo's non confirmation and presence odd.
    throws out a lynch for daven with no analysis
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    ​LYNCH DAVEN
    And that was it for bigred on Day 2 - looks VERY wolfy
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  55. #880
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    When did Drew go hard after Gabe?
    I didn't say he went hard after Gabe. I said, "I really can't see a BID wolf going after Gabe the way he did."

    I'm talking about this post. Day 1, goes after Gabe right away and declares rilla and aubrey (and Keith, who we don't yet know about) to be villagers.

    http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...83#post2191883
  56. #881
    BID day 2 analysis:

    Made the following three posts during night 1. To me this tries to look villagery, but the mistake is in the timing. The third post was made only 10 minutes after the first one which makes this look staged to me as I think village idiot BID would have either not noticed his mistake or taken a lot longer to get there.

    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    This is precisely why I didn't go for jyms and voted for wif instead. At least there was a reason to suspect wif (making a strong effort to be different).

    Not a single person on the jyms train was a strong wolf candidate for me so I'm not really sure where to start. I'd be shocked if more than one wolf was on it. Which makes me wanna look at everyone else:

    Bigred
    luco
    jack
    gabe
    wuf
    rilla
    benny
    gator

    i'm confident there are 3 wolves in this group and as such I'll be targeting these on day 2.
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    No reason to get off of my Day 1 vote yet.

    lynch wuf
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    I'd edit my previous post if I didn't think editing it might require a beat down from ong. I realize it's night and I can't vote yet. So stfu I realized my mistake before you.
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    My logic is sound though on the wagon front. There's such a good chance that the wolves didn't pile on jyms.
    He then goes back to flippant bid
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    You guys are at the top of my list all of a sudden. Can't quite put my finger on why.
    When I made a post similar to this one I was made to look very wolfish, however since I know I am a villager I have to give bid villager points as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    welp

    i got my wish, i guess
    Throws out a lynch for Flomo the mason even though flomo wasn't on his list above.
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    lynch flomo
    tries to play dumb again
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    Hahaha yes!

    Luco it is.

    Guy is a wolf from every angle.

    Obv choice

    ez game

    gg luco

    u played well.
    Trying to look like a villager, but there weren't any thoughts to change
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    I was really drunk last night so I may change thoughts that i posted then.
    Not sure what to make of this post
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    Bigrud and bunny are villagers. While hoopy is a wolf.
    Synopsis: looks WAY more wolf than villager to me.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  57. #882
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    I didn't say he went hard after Gabe. I said, "I really can't see a BID wolf going after Gabe the way he did."

    I'm talking about this post. Day 1, goes after Gabe right away and declares rilla and aubrey (and Keith, who we don't yet know about) to be villagers.

    http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...83#post2191883
    Why would that be weird? It was the 6th vote for Gabe so it is completely plausible that a fellow wolf would jump on the try and gain credibility.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  58. #883
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    Why would that be weird? It was the 6th vote for Gabe so it is completely plausible that a fellow wolf would jump on the try and gain credibility.
    - It was the 3rd vote, which temporarily put Gabe in the lead. This isn't a usual credibility position. This is the kind of vote that, if anything, makes a wagon gain momentum.
    - I can't see a BID wolf declaring a fellow wolf and two villagers so definitively on Day 1.

    To me, this post is really strong evidence that counters all the BID flippancy. To try to analyze the flippant posts is probably a waste.
  59. #884
    Keith day 2 analysis:

    Pointed out to bigred where flomo outed as Mason. Shows he is paying attention.
    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    is this what you missed Bigred?
    Made the following huge analysis post. I don't remember a wolf ever putting this much analysis into the game.
    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    that would make sense if a big reasoned argument had been made. however the wagon that was "squarely" putting suspicion on JV was #155 gator saying JV was in the background and 156 gabe saying

    #159 you come back with quoting that gabe post and the following comment


    can't you see how opportunistic this appears to be especially as you immediately then wrote



    why wouldn't you be surprised if he didn't show up even if he was a wolf ? you never explained your reasons for this.
    luco then posted about JV only making two posts , Ong then posted to say that chippy hadn't posted
    anywhere on the site since the game began and jyms then made his post about you making a mistake with two threads to read.


    why.... there was no big conversation surrounding JV, it was just gator saying that JV was hiding in the background , and gabe saying that it seemed strange for JV to comment on chippy who hadn't posted when he could have commented on everyone else in which case comments on chippy wouldn't stand out. The suspicious bit about what Jyms did was that he said that he thought you made a mistake reading the wolf thread and game thread so he is calling you a wolf but he voted for JV and i called him out on that in #166. gabe and gator had made no reference to the wolves knowing the town pm when they voted for JV since it hadn't come up yet.


    really ? lets look at #172 you quoted JVs #68 and said

    #173


    #173 is where aubrey and JV first get linked over being shown the town PM and as you can see its after jyms comment about aubrey but voting jyms, not the other way round as Aubrey is now trying to portay it.THe PM business only came up after aubrey then tried to explain away her throwaway comment about needing to look up JV . My big post linking JV and aubrey didn't appear until #179. you werenn't linked to JV at that stage so luco's post could not have sealed your wolfiness in jyms eyes based on your link to JV, I presume he called you wolfy because of the way your post appeared opportunistic.


    You've totally rewritten what actually happened and when, and now are using your rewrite to try and put suspicion onto Daven. would you like to explain yourself. Was jyms initial post correct?

    lynch Aubrey
    Another long post, but kind of just a recap of the first one.
    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    Jesus ...why didn't you read what i put . Look at the timeline , i know that it is inconvenient for you.

    #155 gator says JV is in the background
    #156 Gabe points out how weird that JV only comments on chippy not appearing.
    #159 AUBREY says she has to look over JV
    #162 Luco says that JV only has 2 posts
    #164 Jyms lynches JV and says you got confused looking at two threads
    #166 I pull Jyms up on that saying that he should have lynched you , not the person that you were talking about
    #167 rong says it doesn't luco's quote of your #159 doesn't implicate JV and thinks it shows that you are a wolf
    #172 aubrey quotes JV's post
    #173 rong says that you were a wolf in the game he modded and he showed you the villager PM .
    #179 i show that JV was also a wolf in the game that he modded so you and JV are linked and that is my reason to lynch JV at that time.
    #231 daven said "ja, he found something that made him think that aubrey was a wolf, then voted to lynch jv.
    someone else pointed this out too, but no wagon started."
    #232 daven stated that it was me that had originally pointed out jyms.

    Just to reiterate for the befuddled, the only posts surrounding JV were on his absence and comments on chippy ~155,156 , you make a comment about JV#159 and get pulled up on it , jyms voted for JV #164 before it emerges that you were shown the villager PM #173 and i then show that JV had also seen that PM #179. So Daven's #231 is referring to the fact that jyms lynched JV having effectively called you a wolf before all the PM evidence linking you and JV came to light.

    Hence you tried to rewrite history once and having been pulled up on it you still try and bluster that you are being wronged and that your account is true. Facts dont lie . go back and actually read the thread for a change and check the timeline and then come back and tell the truth. Your wolfiness surrounding JV regarding the PMs didn't occur until after jyms had lynched JV in preference to you .
    That's about it for Keith on Day 2. The long posts look very much like a villager, but he did seem to be focused on one person so I would call it neutral. Still WAY more likely to be a villager than wolf.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  60. #885
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    - It was the 3rd vote, which temporarily put Gabe in the lead. This isn't a usual credibility position. This is the kind of vote that, if anything, makes a wagon gain momentum.
    - I can't see a BID wolf declaring a fellow wolf and two villagers so definitively on Day 1.

    To me, this post is really strong evidence that counters all the BID flippancy. To try to analyze the flippant posts is probably a waste.
    Ahhhh, my bad. I read the "L-6" not the vote count.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  61. #886
    Yeah, it took me an embarrassing long amount of time to figure out Ong's vote counts (for true).
  62. #887
    Day 2 analysis for Benny:

    Makes a couple of non descript posts during night 1.

    Sets his sights on Aubrey with these two posts. I would expect villager Benny to put a little more effort into other players instead of jumping in and focusing on just one.

    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Nice start. So, Aubrey, right?

    100% fresh eyes pure virgin read.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    This was like the 5th post of the game. Aubrey is probably the 3rd smartest person in the game but good villager cred strat is to ask the dumb question.
    We know Luco was a villager and bigred is possibly a wolf.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    No, seriously - it's Luco. He's sure as shit with his read and villagers never are. Also, bigred.

    This game is easy.
    This post was after BID voted for Flomo. Is he helping with BID's village idiot cred?
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    *pats BID on the head*
    If the wolves are Gabe, BID, Bigred and Benny he throws two of his buddies in the villager camp. If you substitute Hoopy for BID then he has one in each category. It's not much, but at least something to think about.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Not seeing anything wolfy yet from Keith, gabe or probably BID. I'm content to put flomo and jv in the 95% villager camp. It would be epic and a trip to end game with zero-scrutiny for a wolf team to fake out and post a wiki-article as proof of role but it's too easy for the seer to pick off two wolves with one lookup so it's bad math for them.

    Hoopy, daven, rong and rilla, need to see more from them before I make a call. Gator always seems wolfy to me - the tone in his writing is more robotic with short, choppy sentences. That's good metagame in that it hides him as a wolf but sucks when he's a villager.

    From the rest (bigred, luco, aubrey), I really like a luco lynch today. Will explain why shortly.
    Looks like solid analysis but why didn't he post the quotes he mentions? Not posting the entire quote makes it easier to take certain comments out of perspective.

    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    My Luco Reasoning
    by
    Benjamin P. LaRue

    1) A lot of it is tonal. Pushes for things that favor the wolves but in a laid back manner. In his first post, he pushes for shorter days but "whatever tis all good". Wolves like shorter days. Second post, he wanted Chipeater kept in the game "All we are saaaayiiiiiiing Is give chip a chaaaaaaaaance" because chip has a history of inactivity and wolves like the confusion and lack of information that non-participants provide. Bolded jv for no good reason, keepin it light.

    2) Post 110: Confirms daven as villager for 3 consecutive flip-flop posts. These weren't massive flips, rather a poster convinced by someone's reasoning. Weak yet decisive conclusion, a hallmark of wolf in plain sight, made to look like he's analyzing things.

    3) Post 114: Wants to know if I've accepted the invite to replace CEM. Why? Because they need to know how to change the wolfplan.

    4) After jv outed, wouldn't get off his train. Sure, question it, but you have to rescind in that situation.

    5) Post 254: calls bigred "Wolf not paying attention?" Wolves like to cast doubt on everyone but without specifics or facts.

    lynch luco

    This post looks pretty villagery
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Yeah, the lack of discussion on Aubrey makes me feel like we're down the wrong track. The wolves are just letting us level ourselves.

    Need to see some reasoning from people - villagers reason their way into decisions and lay the evidence for them being villagers. Wolves don't. Daven, rilla, bigred, we need more from you guys.
    The below two posts look kind of like special hunting to me, but would wolf benny make that statement? Not sure.

    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Which brings us to bigred. Has he ever presented rational thought like he has this game? I've certainly never seen it before.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    The change in bigred's style could mean he's a special, but the change in behavior means the wolves would see it too a la wufanugy, so I'll say we can risk speaking plainly about it.
    Not sure what this post is about.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Working on something...do you guys agree that wolves generally don't say definitive things about the other wolves at first, ie. they don't say X is a a wolf or Y is a villager? The one exception I think is unless the villager is really good and intimidating - they might call that player a villager to gain favor.
    Nothing special here as he had already targeted Aubrey, although he had softened it somewhat in previous posts.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Some good discussion today. I'll probably be unable to post tomorrow.

    I'm still feeling strongly about luco, Aubrey and bigred but the luco discussion went nowhere. Aubrey's contribution has been limited to posts defending herself and throwing accusations back at her accusers. If we lynch bigred, we can do practically nothing with the info gathered by her train, since it's mostly about seemingly catching a smoking gun rather than a series of logical conclusions. So, I say rescind luco, lynch Aubrey because I think we'll get more from the Aubrey reveal/bigred derail on Day 3 than we would the other way around.
    More villager vibe than wolfy vibe with Benny on day 2.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  63. #888
    Day 2 analysis for Benny:

    Makes a couple of non descript posts during night 1.

    Sets his sights on Aubrey with these two posts. I would expect villager Benny to put a little more effort into other players instead of jumping in and focusing on just one.

    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Nice start. So, Aubrey, right?

    100% fresh eyes pure virgin read.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    This was like the 5th post of the game. Aubrey is probably the 3rd smartest person in the game but good villager cred strat is to ask the dumb question.
    We know Luco was a villager and bigred is possibly a wolf.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    No, seriously - it's Luco. He's sure as shit with his read and villagers never are. Also, bigred.

    This game is easy.
    This post was after BID voted for Flomo. Is he helping with BID's village idiot cred?
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    *pats BID on the head*
    If the wolves are Gabe, BID, Bigred and Benny he throws two of his buddies in the villager camp. If you substitute Hoopy for BID then he has one in each category. It's not much, but at least something to think about.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Not seeing anything wolfy yet from Keith, gabe or probably BID. I'm content to put flomo and jv in the 95% villager camp. It would be epic and a trip to end game with zero-scrutiny for a wolf team to fake out and post a wiki-article as proof of role but it's too easy for the seer to pick off two wolves with one lookup so it's bad math for them.

    Hoopy, daven, rong and rilla, need to see more from them before I make a call. Gator always seems wolfy to me - the tone in his writing is more robotic with short, choppy sentences. That's good metagame in that it hides him as a wolf but sucks when he's a villager.

    From the rest (bigred, luco, aubrey), I really like a luco lynch today. Will explain why shortly.
    Looks like solid analysis but why didn't he post the quotes he mentions? Not posting the entire quote makes it easier to take certain comments out of perspective.

    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    My Luco Reasoning
    by
    Benjamin P. LaRue

    1) A lot of it is tonal. Pushes for things that favor the wolves but in a laid back manner. In his first post, he pushes for shorter days but "whatever tis all good". Wolves like shorter days. Second post, he wanted Chipeater kept in the game "All we are saaaayiiiiiiing Is give chip a chaaaaaaaaance" because chip has a history of inactivity and wolves like the confusion and lack of information that non-participants provide. Bolded jv for no good reason, keepin it light.

    2) Post 110: Confirms daven as villager for 3 consecutive flip-flop posts. These weren't massive flips, rather a poster convinced by someone's reasoning. Weak yet decisive conclusion, a hallmark of wolf in plain sight, made to look like he's analyzing things.

    3) Post 114: Wants to know if I've accepted the invite to replace CEM. Why? Because they need to know how to change the wolfplan.

    4) After jv outed, wouldn't get off his train. Sure, question it, but you have to rescind in that situation.

    5) Post 254: calls bigred "Wolf not paying attention?" Wolves like to cast doubt on everyone but without specifics or facts.

    lynch luco

    This post looks pretty villagery
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Yeah, the lack of discussion on Aubrey makes me feel like we're down the wrong track. The wolves are just letting us level ourselves.

    Need to see some reasoning from people - villagers reason their way into decisions and lay the evidence for them being villagers. Wolves don't. Daven, rilla, bigred, we need more from you guys.
    The below two posts look kind of like special hunting to me, but would wolf benny make that statement? Not sure.

    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Which brings us to bigred. Has he ever presented rational thought like he has this game? I've certainly never seen it before.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    The change in bigred's style could mean he's a special, but the change in behavior means the wolves would see it too a la wufanugy, so I'll say we can risk speaking plainly about it.
    Not sure what this post is about.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Working on something...do you guys agree that wolves generally don't say definitive things about the other wolves at first, ie. they don't say X is a a wolf or Y is a villager? The one exception I think is unless the villager is really good and intimidating - they might call that player a villager to gain favor.
    Nothing special here as he had already targeted Aubrey, although he had softened it somewhat in previous posts.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Some good discussion today. I'll probably be unable to post tomorrow.

    I'm still feeling strongly about luco, Aubrey and bigred but the luco discussion went nowhere. Aubrey's contribution has been limited to posts defending herself and throwing accusations back at her accusers. If we lynch bigred, we can do practically nothing with the info gathered by her train, since it's mostly about seemingly catching a smoking gun rather than a series of logical conclusions. So, I say rescind luco, lynch Aubrey because I think we'll get more from the Aubrey reveal/bigred derail on Day 3 than we would the other way around.
    More villager vibe than wolfy vibe with Benny on day 2.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  64. #889
    Have some stuff to go do so I will have to get to Hoopy and Gabe later.
    Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
  65. #890
    bigred's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    15,437
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    Nest of Douchebags
    Act 2: Where Gator, Benny, and Hoopy try to sway BID off of one of them for the victory.
    LOL OPERATIONS
  66. #891
    Hey bigred, why should we think you are a villager?
  67. #892
    Looked at keith's posts and all I see is his usual villager play of aggressive questioning (i.e. vs gabe day 1) and combing posts for inconsistencies. Only thing against him is a low post count which he's given an explanation for.
  68. #893
    BankItDrew's Avatar
    Join Date
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    welp. gator is a wolf
  69. #894
    BankItDrew's Avatar
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Act 2: Where Gator, Benny, and Hoopy try to sway BID off of one of them for the victory.
    gator is doing a shitty job and benny is doing a great job
  70. #895
    my case against hoopy has been based on his aubrey lynch wagon ...saying he can't lynch her , yet condemming her by switching onto bigred.Thought i'd go back and look at the day 1 jyms wagon



    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    rescind jyms
    lynch Gator

    He was on the JV wagon and to coin a wuf phrase is the GOATwolf, can'treally trust him until seered or dead. If we let him get to endgame he'll probably end up pwning the village again.
    Day1 is far too early to lynch villager Gator. if he's a villager let the wolves eat him.The interesting phrase is the second one . why will he pwn the village ? why not pwn the wolves in the endgame like he did in Davens first game .this seems like a subtle mistake by hoopy and confirms hoopy and Gator as wolves. He knows Gator is never going to get lynched day 1 so puts a no reason lynch out to gain seperation for later in the game in case Gator is seered.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Yeah I mean I guess it's possible she decided to ask about PM's already knowing the answer but in my experience wolves haven't really done that much. More often they speculate about various game mechanics that are quite obvious.


    Who usually tries to push the rules to the limit or manipulate them in the villages favour . Me and who else was targetting me day1 , yep the confirmed wolf gabe.


    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Nobody else hopped on the Gator wagon, make of that what you will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post

    rescindGator
    lynch jyms

    Day1 has been good so far, how often do we have 2 confirmed villagers this early?
    I said above what i made of it , gator would never get lynched day1 and you were gaining seperation. Again another subtle slip suggesting foreknowledge that flomo and JV were actually Masons rather than wolves making a play. only way he could have this knowledge on day 1 is if he is a wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    VC1.10
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post

    5- jyms - L-4
    3- luco, wuf
    2- aubrey
    1- gabe, gator


    luco- wuf, gabe, bigred
    gabe- jyms
    jyms- daven, keith, flomo, hoopy, aubrey
    wuf- luco, rilla, drew
    aubrey- rong, gator
    gator- jack

    notvoting - benny

    DeadlineWednesday 8pm UK (3pm ET) - 4hrs
    (extendedby 12 hours)
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    This I can get on board with.
    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post

    rescindwhoever and lynch wuf
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Ah ok, I thought it might be a quote from somewhere.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post


    jyms over wuf for me.

    Happy birthday near lynchee! Pick awagon.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Would be crazy if they're both wolves.

    Ok then, bigred can post his daily dose of cat pictures to keep everyone happy until tonight.

    why would a villager say that ? seems like something a wolf would say to try and show that you don't know peoples wolf/villager status when in reality you know.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Drew,jack and flomo are confirmed villagers in case you didn'tknow.


    again how can you say any of them are confirmed villagers .JV and flomo have only been confirmed with the death of JV. Bid has not been confirmed either way.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Thatpost gives drew a strong village lean, wolves know that JV/flomo areconfirmed so won't pretend to not know unless they're gettingtricky.


    how do you know if wolves were getting tricky though?you can't unless you are one of them so if you don't know if they are tricky you can't confirm BID as a villager.And I think this then went into day 2...(multiquote means lose track of exact position in game)

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Goddam wolves!
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post

    Can anyone make a good case against aubrey? I can't.
    if you can't make a case against aubrey why bring it up ?And the opposite of that is if you can't make a case against her you should have some pretty good reasons that you can post to defend her. But you did neither. Just seems like you were trying to put a name forward so that the village would then discuss and wagon her..



    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Gator votes for wuf late on day 1 but earlier on said he didn't think it was likely he was wolfin. Why not pick jyms?
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post

    lynch Gator
    Again an early vote for Gator when its not going to run

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Very+EV for the village to have benny switch in for chipeaterimo.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post

    Currently feeling suspicious of Gator/daven/rong, that might change when I review the thread.
    what….no mention at this stage of any suspicion against bigred at all.

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    VC2.3
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post

    3- aubrey - L-5
    2- daven
    1- rong, gator, flomo, drew, luco

    (tiebreaks- 2 aubrey - 3 aubrey)

    daven- rilla, bigred
    rong- daven
    gator- hoopy
    flomo- drew
    luco- benny
    aubrey- rong, gabe, keith
    drew- jack

    notvoting - luco, flomo, aubrey, gator

    8to lynch!

    Deadlineis Monday 8pm UK, 3pm ET (51 hrs)
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Not feeling an aubrey lynch right now.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post




    rescindGator
    lynch daven

    then benny introduces suspicion of bigred


    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Which brings us to bigred. Has he ever presented rational thought like he has this game? I've certainly never seen itbefore.


    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    The change in bigred's style could mean he's a special, but the change in behavior means the wolves would see it too a la wufanugy, so I'll say we can risk speaking plainly about it.



    but why would a villager want to speculate about who the specials are.Saying that the wolves must have noticed a difference in play is a copout ….especially since you needed a recap of what happened inthe last 6 games . How do you know that bigred hadn't changed his style in those games?.

    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    bigreds posts contain nothing
    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post

    the fact they contain nothing and then he says flomo being MIA is odd makes me think bigred is projecting his absentee wolfism

    he also said that since he likes picking off people on the JV bandwagon.we've kinda aimed at people on this wagon and nothing seems to takeoff (which if there is no wolf there, it explains the lack of fervor in this thread). bigred didnt seem wolfy at the time of posting, but with the development of the thread, he does

    lynchbigred
    so now we have a known wolf starting a wagon on bigred when there were already wagons running on daven and aubrey

    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    benny inspired that post^, not rilla. but im glad youagree!


    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    A bigred wagon would be good.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post

    rescinddaven
    lynch bigred

    so we have benny speculating that bigred could be a special and now gabe a wolf and hoopy pile on. Is it not strange that a potential special is being wagonned by a wolf , Are villagers going to be wanting to lynch a potential special?For wolves its a bonus if they can force a special to out. This makes hoopy look really wolfy especially with his really weak reasoning for it.

    Quote Originally Posted by GatorJH View Post
    Ican't believe I am defending bigred, but hear goes. The last game I went after bigred early because he wasn't participating and was called out on it because he had added a ton of value in the previous game (I wasn't in that game), therefore I backed off. If he is really trying to add value I think we should give it a day or two and see if he either slips up or adds enough value to show he is more likely to be a villager than a wolf.



    would it be suspicious if bigred outs and then wolves are shown at a later date to be on his wagon plus gator gains a bit from not antagonising bigred if he's a wolf since bigred would probably vote for gator.

    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post
    Some good discussion today. I'll probably be unable to post tomorrow.
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue View Post

    I'm still feeling strongly about luco, Aubrey and bigred but the luco discussion went nowhere. Aubrey's contribution has been limited to posts defending herself and throwing accusations back at her accusers. If we lynch bigred, we can do practically nothing with the info gathered by her train, since it's mostly about seemingly catching a smoking gun rather than a series of logical conclusions.So, I say rescindluco, lynch Aubrey because I think we'll get more from the Aubrey reveal/bigred derail on Day 3 than we would the other way around.

    hmmmm he stimulated the bigred discussion and votes but didn't get on it but instead makes sure that its aubrey that will die.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    I like the idea of running daven vs bigred wagons.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post

    Andwhy should we do that?

    again pushing the bigred wagon ide ,but aubrey was in the lead so why ignore aubrey?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    @keith
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post

    Plenty of time to go at that point and I wanted to see if a bigred wagon would go anywhere. My mistake was not switching to daven when their was about 12hrs to go.

    so day ended aubrey dies and I post my attack on hoopy because his actions ensured that aubrey died .

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    2mistakes actually since it's 7:4, I agree about daven though.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post

    The wolves have made some really precise noms while leaving alone JV/flomo, possibly to make us suspicious of them?

    again he implants the idea that jv flomo may be wolves despite saying early that they are confirmed villagers

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Iagree with all of this.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post

    Gator and daven are my top suspects right now, who do you think is wolfin?

    so this is strange........nothing has happened to clear bigred but having been so desperate to get wagons running between daven and bigred at the end of the previous day , now bigred has disappeared off the suspect list.


    putting it all together i still think its hoopy (dead cert wolf) for his actions on bigred and aubrey , continually lynching gator early, and apparent mistakes surrounding gator and jv/flomo. Benny (probable alpha wolf) because of his actions trying to get seered and he was also the one that promoted the wagon on a possible special bigred without actually getting on it himself.final wolf i think is gator , because gabe went really easy on him leaving him off suspect lists etc when he'd just mentioned him as suspect and for hoopys continual lynchs when there was no chance of getting gator lynched.2 or 3 of these 4 ( including gabe) seem to have been working as a team at different stages throughout this game.

    flomo is now a nailed on villager so no need to analyse him which leaves bigred and BID. will have another read through the thread tomorrow looking at them but from todays read through , the team play by benny,gabe and hoopy would imply that bigred is highly likely to been a potential special targetted to try and force him to out and therefore almost certainly a villager . THis would leave BID as an outsider if i'm wrong about one of the other three, but can't see wolf BID lynching wuf in game the night the wolves decide to eat him or putting jack and flomo on seperate teams when they have confirmed that they are on the same side. As a wolf , i imagine that he'd check and double check to avoid obvious mistakes like that .

    Hoopy looks to be a nailed on certainty for getting a wolf so he would be my preferred lynch today.
  71. #896
    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopy View Post
    Looked at keith's posts and all I see is his usual villager play of aggressive questioning (i.e. vs gabe day 1) and combing posts for inconsistencies. Only thing against him is a low post count which he's given an explanation for.
    this is something that really annoys me . I don't post a load of one line liners. I bet if someone actually went and did word counts i probably post as much as anyone else . My posts aren't fluffy no information one line posts that tick the post count up with three or four one liners in close succesion. they tend to be reasoned arguments based on research looking for the inconsistancies and not fluff posts commenting on other peoples work. GUess what , research takes time , one line comments just need you to read the latest couple of posts and hit the reply button .
  72. #897
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    I'm about to lay a smack down on this mother fucker:


    Hoopy is a wolf.

    I have been sitting on jv every night and finally last night hoopy visited him.

    I know this because I am a village watcher and have been watching jv every night this game. Hoopy visited him last night.
  73. #898
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    I'm about to lay a smack down on this mother fucker:


    Hoopy is a wolf.

    I have been sitting on jv every night and finally last night hoopy visited him.

    I know this because I am a village watcher and have been watching jv every night this game. Hoopy visited him last night.
    This is bullshit.

    The wolf team is making a play to get me lynched.
  74. #899
    It does sort of make sense that we'd have another role, otherwise the game seemed really unbalanced. Super smart move staying on JV! flomo, if this works out, no mvp for you.

    I'm thinking we lynch hoopy today and then learn from who the wolves nom. Other thoughts?
  75. #900
    No, nevermind, the wolves probably nom flomo and it gives us nothing.

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