02-03-2015 09:09 PM
#151
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02-03-2015 09:16 PM
#152
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forgive me for making rational arguments. |
02-03-2015 09:18 PM
#153
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02-03-2015 09:21 PM
#154
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I'm coming around to the idea of Wuf being a wolf. | |
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02-03-2015 09:26 PM
#155
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@ wuf: who do you read best in this game, and what is your read on them? | |
02-03-2015 09:28 PM
#156
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02-03-2015 09:32 PM
#157
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A coinflip? You mean it's 50-50 in terms of pure odds who got to 2 votes first. The village will be left debating if the wolf skillfully ensured he didn't get to 2 votes first, if the wolf even more skillfully ensured he did get to 2 first so he looks the most villagery, or if he superbly ensured the two wagons are both villagers. What actually should happen is every villager assesses his partner, while the wolf pretends to, and hopefully the wolf will fuck up, or the villagers will be too strong. | |
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02-03-2015 09:32 PM
#158
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02-03-2015 09:33 PM
#159
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We are voting pairs of players. | |
02-03-2015 09:34 PM
#160
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02-03-2015 09:37 PM
#161
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nobody is going to bold their partners. if they do they're fucking stupid. |
02-03-2015 09:38 PM
#162
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02-03-2015 09:38 PM
#163
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02-03-2015 09:39 PM
#164
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Why do you suppose self lynching is specifically ok in this game? Because it might be necessary. | |
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02-03-2015 09:42 PM
#165
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rescind luco | |
02-03-2015 09:44 PM
#166
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Voting for your lover makes sense sometimes. | |
02-03-2015 09:46 PM
#167
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02-03-2015 09:47 PM
#168
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I strongly disagree with this. Revealing partners gives wolves information that they didn't have. | |
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02-03-2015 09:47 PM
#169
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Poor mojo. | |
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02-03-2015 09:50 PM
#170
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if that is true then it means that either this game is hyper imba against the village or normal games are hyper in favor towards the village |
02-03-2015 09:52 PM
#171
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02-03-2015 09:54 PM
#172
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02-03-2015 09:55 PM
#173
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If I think my partner is a wolf, I will vote for them. If you don't do that as a villa, you're not playing for your wincon and not being pro villa. | |
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02-03-2015 09:57 PM
#174
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revealing partners gives the village information we dont have. much more value in that than what the wolves get out of knowing. let's say we think gabe is a villager and we lynch bigred because he never does anything, but they're linked. then we say "oh shit how dumb was that, we didnt want gabe to die" |
02-03-2015 09:59 PM
#175
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Wolves have obv revealed their fuckbuddys in den. But they don't know the rest. Wouldn't it benefit them if they could take out the strongest pair first? In lieu of Special hunting, all they have to strat about is rank order of lynching. Why would we give them that knowledge? | |
02-03-2015 10:00 PM
#176
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lynch wuf not changing. | |
02-03-2015 10:00 PM
#177
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Keeping information in limbo where no one knows the information, is not +EV for anyone. The question is who is it more valuable to? | |
02-03-2015 10:01 PM
#178
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02-03-2015 10:02 PM
#179
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02-03-2015 10:03 PM
#180
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MMM, I'm disappointed in you. | |
02-03-2015 10:03 PM
#181
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obviously. the problem is that the margin of error in "what we think" is always so super high. people give me shit for sucking, but the truth is that every good read is wrong most of the time. a significant odds change is almost always more than enough to keep the balls off of any of those "good reads" that are mostly wrong |
02-03-2015 10:05 PM
#182
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I don't see where it helps the villas. At least not yet. | |
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02-03-2015 10:08 PM
#183
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That's not the point. The point is that there is ZERO value in revealing our partners (there is YET to be one rational argument for doing so and, again, we're giving the wolves perfect information on a silver platter). So what you, BID and Rilla are doing is most likely -EV for the village. It's definitely not a positive and stop pretending it is. Why are we revealing without having a logical discussion given it? Those who've revealed so far haven't even thought it through. | |
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02-03-2015 10:10 PM
#184
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Wuf, I'm going to assume for a minute you're a villager. Well, you're in a better position than anyone to for a read on hoopy, especially since you soulread his ass last game. You have an obligation as a villager to be honest about your opinion of hoopy, even if you think he's a wolf. If you're more concerned about self preservation, then that indicates that your obligations lie elsewhere. | |
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02-03-2015 10:11 PM
#185
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read every d1 game ive played in the last 3 years |
02-03-2015 10:13 PM
#186
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This is a good point and something I haven't considered. The wolves are obviously not going to try and lynch their partners, and target any of the others and any lynch of a villager driven by the wolves will be a 2 villa lynch. | |
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02-03-2015 10:13 PM
#187
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02-03-2015 10:16 PM
#188
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02-03-2015 10:18 PM
#189
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i get that. i havent argued for self-preservation. i have pointed out the statistics. if a villager votes for his partner, he KNOWS he is voting for a villager in himself. he knows that if that lynch happens, 50% of the results are definite villager death. but he doesn't know this if he votes for a non-partner. from the perspective of a villager, the amount of villagers lynched when he votes for his partner is higher than the amount when he doesn't |
02-03-2015 10:19 PM
#190
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02-03-2015 10:21 PM
#191
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do we know who we're lynching in normal games? yes. why would we think it's correct to not know who we're lynching in this game? |
02-03-2015 10:25 PM
#192
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02-03-2015 10:26 PM
#193
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It's complicated, and I'm not 100% on my stance, but I'm leaning reveal. | |
02-03-2015 10:29 PM
#194
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02-03-2015 10:30 PM
#195
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I'm trying to think thru the possible partnership combinations and what is most likely with 18 players (4 wolves, 14 villas). | |
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02-03-2015 10:31 PM
#196
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I advise against further partner reveals until a solid case is made that it absolutely benefits the village. Cuz it clearly benefits the W's. | |
02-03-2015 10:32 PM
#197
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02-03-2015 10:33 PM
#198
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02-03-2015 10:33 PM
#199
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Do you read shit over before you post or do you just click the button? You think that playing with hidden partners is equal to playing in a regular game and lynching with your eyes closed? Stop trying to make it seem that us lynching without a partner reveal means we don't know who we're lynching. We'd know who we'd be lynching, we just don't know the baggage that comes with lynching them (although, revealing prior to getting lynched would alleviate this problem). Also, does knowing the baggage REALLY change the decision on who to lynch? It should really only change a potential wolf bandwagon. If you strongly suspect a player of being a wolf, the baggage is a moot point. | |
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02-03-2015 10:34 PM
#200
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02-03-2015 10:35 PM
#201
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trolling freetrollers
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yeah, i'm pretty happy with my vote on wuf |
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02-03-2015 10:36 PM
#202
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With regards to the bolded, you have the game to lose as a villa if this isn't a pro-villa strategy. I'm not yet convinced that revealing is pro-villa. | |
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02-03-2015 10:36 PM
#203
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02-03-2015 10:36 PM
#204
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02-03-2015 10:39 PM
#205
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02-03-2015 10:39 PM
#206
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02-03-2015 10:42 PM
#207
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02-03-2015 10:46 PM
#208
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Just to be clear: | |
02-03-2015 10:46 PM
#209
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Nah... we need to think differently about our voting this game. We need to assign values to pairs. | |
02-03-2015 10:48 PM
#210
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02-03-2015 10:49 PM
#211
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trolling freetrollers
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02-03-2015 10:49 PM
#212
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There's different ways of assessing the balance. If all the wolves are partnered, then they must protect each other at all costs, but they can avoid having to play villager in two threads, which I would imagine is a demanding task. If I were a wolf, I think I'd prefer to be buddied to a fellow wolf. | |
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02-03-2015 10:50 PM
#213
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trolling freetrollers
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02-03-2015 10:52 PM
#214
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Your statistics assume the final 4 are random variables about which there is no background information. | |
02-03-2015 10:53 PM
#215
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02-03-2015 10:55 PM
#216
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It's my birthday now. In fact, I was born exactly 36 years ago, to the hour. | |
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02-03-2015 10:59 PM
#217
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02-03-2015 11:01 PM
#218
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It's clear that those who favor revealing have revealed and those who do not favor revealing will not reveal. I don't see any value in trying to convince one side or the other any further. | |
02-03-2015 11:07 PM
#219
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I can't even remember who I'm voting for, maybe drew again. | |
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02-03-2015 11:10 PM
#220
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@BID: what's your case against Luco? | |
02-03-2015 11:10 PM
#221
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I can't argue with the math, but ww math doesn't work that way imo, at least I don't see it working like that in this game. | |
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02-03-2015 11:14 PM
#222
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02-03-2015 11:14 PM
#223
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02-03-2015 11:17 PM
#224
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Yup, this is true. | |
02-03-2015 11:40 PM
#225
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Let me fix this post: | |
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