FTR Werewolf: Gold Rush (Carbon Poker Freeroll)

Originally Posted by gabe

you act like you dont like being wrong but your play style practically requires it

playing ww requires it

everybody is wrong at least 80% of the time. i try to keep that closer to 70%. not sure how successful ive been. it is probably true that since im always at the forefront, i look wrong more often (since i have more opinions).

what else am i supposed to do?

Originally Posted by wufwugy

nobody make the final vote, at least until tomorrow

18 minutes later

Originally Posted by gabe

lynch key bored

858

Originally Posted by gabe

It's pointless... vig will shoot wuf and we'll have at least 1 wolf to extrapolate on. The hunting hasnt been effective with the current info. Angel should protect me if keybored is a wolf..

Wait, so he's says the vig will shoot me even though he should easily know the vig didn't have a shot, and he basically said I'm a wolf here, in a way that makes it seem like he knows keybored won't flip wolf. How does he know the hunting hasn't been effective with the current info? He just put the final bold on keybored. Call me idealistic but I would think he would only bold keybored if he thought there was a decent chance of him being a wolf

866

Originally Posted by gabe

the vig must shoot gator, bikes, rong or you, inactive vets + the winner of the wuf/baud showdown. those dudes arent posting enough for us to explore their thoughts so we have to press them this way i gues

Again with the vig. Granted I hadn't yet pointed out that the vig doesn't have a shot, but it's not like he should be expected to not know that

888

Originally Posted by gabe

We learn this lesson over and over every year: you can't let the dangerous players coast through this game. Gator Rong bikes and I guess keith are all making it deep with no sweat...

I know our vig is dead but like bid says we have plenty of time to find a 100% wolf

Wuf, open your mind

Another weird vig post. Gabe would say that he just made a mistake. I think Gabe is one of the few players here who will deliberately make slips to try to get villagers to think he would never be so careless as a wolf. I don't think he's careless. I think he enjoys this game and likes finding baddies and he would be more cognizant of what's going on if he's a villager

Originally Posted by gabe

i was expecting all 3 wolves to pile on me by now.. i probably named all 3 of them bikes/rong/gator and they are scared of getting binked in the end game because of it

Yet every one of his bolds is reactionary. He did make one meager case against Gator early in the game and bolded him on it, but everything else has just been waiting to see what goes down then putting in late bolds. Gabe says he doesn't like how I play. Here's a thought: play like this forces me to be the vanguard. Rilla was right and I was getting the same feeling on my own. You're not looking to see the deaths of players you claim should die





If I'm wrong about Gabe and he's just a villager, I'm gonna build a time machine and go back in the past and bold him again. Sometimes he's a villager, maybe most of the time he's a villager. But what else is there to do with all this? I guess what I'm saying is that if he's a villager, I still don't know what to do about this. He is playing a wolfier game than anybody else alive. That doesn't make him a wolf, but when you figure out who you think is the wolfiest, you have no choice but to call them a wolf. If that's the wrong way to play ww, let me know

Forgot to add that Gabe cinching Keybored after I clearly asked nobody to is an attempt to look like a clueless villager

I mean, when does he ever do that as an actual villager? If Gabe is hunting wolves, he would be apt to keep the day as long as possible and even find a reason why Keybored is the wrong lynch. But he didn't do that, he just cinched it up. He can't use an excuse like he didn't see my request or didn't think that would be the cinch, because if he's a villager he would be sure to make sure that Keybored didn't out as a special or something

I just don't see vilgabe doing that, but I do see wolfgabe doing it.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

I don't like being wrong. I occasionally stop myself from posting who I think the entire team is, but eventually just end up doing it anyways. I think the best thing for me would be to just focus on finding one wolf and not trying to find anymore, because doing so mucks things up. But that's typically not how I roll. It's a personal failing. I fancy a game where I hound dog the entire team and they give up and admit I'm god of ww and they could never defeat me. :eyeroll, I know. It's dumb but that's how my dumb brain looks at things (most of the time)

A lot of my play lately has been a struggle between not wanting to do that anymore yet inevitably still doing it. Oh well, I'm far less bossy than I used to be, so that's an improvement

that doesn't explain your about turn on BID. at the end of yesterday you said word to the effect that gabe nailed the coffin shut to protect BID because he was taking heat. Nothing new happened overnight in that regards to BID and you start today off with gabe and bikes being the wolves and not even guessing at who the third is. Why the change of heart over BID.

Originally Posted by Keith

that doesn't explain your about turn on BID. at the end of yesterday you said word to the effect that gabe nailed the coffin shut to protect BID because he was taking heat. Nothing new happened overnight in that regards to BID and you start today off with gabe and bikes being the wolves and not even guessing at who the third is. Why the change of heart over BID.

I don't have a change of heart

That specific read was predicated on the idea that Keybored was a wolf and Gabe knew the writing was on the wall for his death, and the remaining wolf was BID and Gabe wanted to shut off the discussion I just started to have about him being a wolf. Basically, the Gabe and BID thing I mentioned there was about them doing a hail mary, a sort of too-good-to-be-true hail mary. There are also other reasons I think Gabe may have tried protecting BID earlier in the game, but I honestly have to reassess. I like Gabe and Bikes lynches way more than anybody else and I should probably wait for something to happen before I waste a whole bunch of time going through the thread

I get ahead of myself way too much.

kk time to start dissecting

14 Players Remaining


a500lbgorilla - EATEN #3
BankItDrew
baudib -- DEAD DAY #2
bigred (Lynched --- Day #1)
bikes
gabe
GatorJH
GrayFoxxxx
Keith
Keybored -DEAD #3
Luco - EATEN DAY #1
OngBonga - EATEN DAY #2
rong
scourrge
wufwugy


8 Regular Villagers
1 Every Night Angel
1 Odd Night Seer
1 Even Night Vigilante
3 Wolves




_____


a500lbgorilla --- (wufwugy #180) (lolzzz_321 #456) bigred #483
BankItDrew --- wufwugy #539
baudib --- (bikes #91) (bikes #380) wufwugy #424
bigred
bikes --- bigred #488
gabe --- (baudib #415) bigred #491
GatorJH --- (lolzzz_321 #332) bigred #353
GrayFoxxxx --- (baudib #116) (wufwugy #268) (baudib #403) wufwugy #502
Keith --- wufwugy #487
Keybored --- bigred #237
OngBonga --- (baudib) (bigred #204) (baudib #321) (bigred #334) (baudib #375) (baudib #410)(wufwugy #421) (baudib #429) wufwugy #448
rong --- bigred #361
scourrge
SweetClaireRose
wufwugy --- (lolzzz_321 #119) (baudib #131) (bigred #234) (BankItDrew #292) baudib #397






The sun is setting on Day #2. A majority has been reached.


DAY #2 LYNCH NOMINATIONS


baudib - 7 *Majority*
GatorJH - 3


_____


a500lbgorilla --- GatorJH #674
BankItDrew --- (GrayFoxxxx #572) (baudib #579) (wufwugy #603) baudib #700
baudib --- (GrayFoxxxx #571) (GatorJH #654) GatorJH #676
bikes --- baudib #696
gabe --- GatorJH #652
GatorJH --- baudib #685
GrayFoxxxx --- (wufwugy #605) baudib #754
Keith
Keybored --- baudib #722
OngBonga --- baudib #641
rong
scourrge
wufwugy --- baudib #620




DAY #3 LYNCH NOMINATIONS


gabe - 2
Keybored - 6 (Majority)
rong - 1
wufwugy - 1


_____




a500lbgorilla --- gabe #789
BankItDrew --- (Keybored #776) Keybored #806
bikes --- Keybored #810
gabe --- Keybored #845
GatorJH
GrayFoxxxx --- wufwugy #775
Keith --- Keybored #773
Keybored --- rong #786
rong --- Keybored #833
scourrge --- Keybored (#803)
wufwugy --- (rong #767) gabe #796


It is current sunset on Day #3 --- Narration pending...


posted so i can read easier.

Originally Posted by dhubermex

Angel
Welcome to FTR Werewolf: Gold Rush!
Your role is Angel.
Every night you may send me the name of one target player. That player will be protected from all kill attempts on them, however they will also be prevented from using any abilities or submitting any night kills. You may not protect yourself--nor can you protect the same player consecutively.
Win Condition: You are aligned with the Village! Thus you win the game once all the wolves are dead, whether you are alive or not.

#24

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Optimal seer strat isn't a d4 claim, it's d3, assuming the angel is still alive.

#300

Originally Posted by wufwugy

if bid's the angel, he's just going to protect himself, even though he cant. if he's the seer he's just going to look up himself because he'll think he's really the angel and protecting himself. if he's the vig, he'll probably try to shoot the mod because he's mad that he's not the angel so he can protect himself every night

#326

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I've only just actually looked at sample pms, and it turns out this is a very bad idea. Seer should not claim d3 because if the angel is protecting him, he is blocked. I'd prefer to let this just be forgotten, but I can't let it slide because maybe the seer took notice and didn't read the angel role pm either.

reading through the thread i came across this .ong posted the optimal seer strat of outing on d3 assuming the angel is still alive. In #300 wuf is saying that the angel can't protect himself so wuf has obviously read the angel role PM and knows that the d3 seer claim is bad for the village as the seer would lose his lookup when he gets protected. Did he attack ong as a wolf for suggesting that originallly ....he kept quiet about it and the only team that benefits from a d3 seer claim is the wolf team. in # 326 ong realises that the d3 seer claim is flawed and posts his correction.

If wuf is a villager he would have been all over ong for suggesting that d3 claim, since it only benfits the wolves wuf has to be a wolf.

lynch WUF

Originally Posted by Keith

#24

#300

#326



reading through the thread i came across this .ong posted the optimal seer strat of outing on d3 assuming the angel is still alive. In #300 wuf is saying that the angel can't protect himself so wuf has obviously read the angel role PM and knows that the d3 seer claim is bad for the village as the seer would lose his lookup when he gets protected. Did he attack ong as a wolf for suggesting that originallly ....he kept quiet about it and the only team that benefits from a d3 seer claim is the wolf team. in # 326 ong realises that the d3 seer claim is flawed and posts his correction.

If wuf is a villager he would have been all over ong for suggesting that d3 claim, since it only benfits the wolves wuf has to be a wolf.

lynch WUF

Um, this applies way more to you than to me. Go over past games, you LOVE talking about the specials. I hate it, I almost never do it. I tend to glaze over the special powers anyways. Why didn't you point out Ong's strategy was wrong? You're the guy who loves analyzing that stuff and talking about it in a thread that the wolves read

I've claimed enough in past games that I don't like talking about the specials that this isn't unreasonable for me. The BID post was making fun of him and how he played angel the last time


I also like how you were the first person to point out that you think Ong was messaging that he looked up wolf-keybored, yet now you don't seem to care that the only lookups that make a lick of sense are me or BID

ok so, this game is more difficult to play when you sub people in and out >.>

on day #2 it starts out with a greyfoxx bandwagon and suddenly it stops. after 2 posts. this mostly because everyone wanted baudib gone so he would stop posting. baudib posts greyfoxx and bid follows behind him. bid recinds a few posts later. somewhere around like post #570 this begins.

wufwugy train follows behind it. followed by posts of circlejerking. few posts later rilla seems to think greyfoxx is not a wolf.

it seems strange to me that people actually seemed to believe that baudib could flip wolf some reasonably okayish % of the time. i simply wanted baudib gone so i could read this thread easier.

gator train after.


i gotta believe that wufwugy is a wolf some large % of the time just based on how close day #1 was. maybe things have changed but day #1s have always been mostly laughs and then lynching someone to get the day over with so we can all play. it seems plausible that wufwugy could be a wolf.

so from the people who voted bigred day #1 we have

rilla - ded
bikes
gabe
gator
keyboard - ded
rong


which leaves the people who voted for wuf

bid
baudib - ded
grayfox
keith
ongbonga - ded


no votes scourrge and wufwugy votes baudib of all people.

i think there has to be a wolf inbetween wufwugy, gabe gator and rong.

though out of all those probably the least likely to be a wolf is gabe because i think the rilla eateds is misdirection intended to frame gabe.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Forgot to add that Gabe cinching Keybored after I clearly asked nobody to is an attempt to look like a clueless villager

the village would be in trouble if it always did what you asked

it seems like you launched your entire wolf attack on me based on my keybored vote. if anyone else that voted for him read your pleas to hold off on his lynch, maybe at least one of them would have seriously considered rescinding, but no one did. no one else was going to die in that time period, except you. i think you were afraid of bolding keybored because you were worried it would make you catch heat. but then you found a patsy in me to make the vote, so i was an easy and predictable target for you. the rilla kill seems like an obvious ploy to get me lynched


we cant really investigate the inactive players. if rong gator bikes are the wolves then we cant win. wuf you need to take an objective look at how you always accuse whoever is posting with you. your wolf-catching % would go up. keith dug up good evidence on you but his last read about that stuff was not close


also some of my play has been influenced by dying so fast in these games in 2014. its probably better for me if the wolves think im going to get lynched so they eat someone else. in 8 years of playing werewolf ive never made it to the end of a game, and recently not even the middle of a game

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Um, this applies way more to you than to me. Go over past games, you LOVE talking about the specials. I hate it, I almost never do it. I tend to glaze over the special powers anyways. Why didn't you point out Ong's strategy was wrong? You're the guy who loves analyzing that stuff and talking about it in a thread that the wolves read

aren't you forgetting that i originally posted d4 seer claim was best. you know ...like you said i was talking about the specials. I just assumed that the angel was a standard angel as i hadn't read the angel role PM just as ong hadn't , and since no one else commented on it , i bet most of the other players hadn't read the angel PM either.

I've claimed enough in past games that I don't like talking about the specials that this isn't unreasonable for me. The BID post was making fun of him and how he played angel the last time

yeah you were poking fun at him , but in doing so you slipped up and proved that you had read the angel PM and knew that Ongs seer strat was bad for the village and you chose to do nothing.

I also like how you were the first person to point out that you think Ong was messaging that he looked up wolf-keybored, yet now you don't seem to care that the only lookups that make a lick of sense are me or BID

Originally Posted by wuf

Originally Posted by Keith


that doesn't say what you are claiming ong's position about you was . if he looked you up , why would he need to reassess you based on the outcome of baudib dying? If you're a wolf and knew that baudib was going to come back as a villager it gives you an incentive to take out Ong last night






You may be right. He wasn't definitive. But I do think the two main things that stand out are that he declared he thinks BID is a villager and he was no longer interested in lynching me. I think every other option is too cryptic to give much merit

lol ...thought we already covered this and you are still clinging to the claim that ong looked you up . why would he need to reassess you if he'd looked you up .

finished the first two pages and so far my read on Keith appears to be completely wrong as he looks villager.

just a few posts by grey, but leaning village

not much from rong, but his focus on ong makes me lean wolf

nothing at all from scourrge and BID yet.

Bikes and Gabe look the most like wolves.

Uncertain

Originally Posted by Keith

aren't you forgetting that i originally posted d4 seer claim was best. you know ...like you said i was talking about the specials. I just assumed that the angel was a standard angel as i hadn't read the angel role PM just as ong hadn't , and since no one else commented on it , i bet most of the other players hadn't read the angel PM either.

Congratulations on having one of the weakest cases I've seen

yeah you were poking fun at him , but in doing so you slipped up and proved that you had read the angel PM and knew that Ongs seer strat was bad for the village and you chose to do nothing.

It can't be that I proved I read half of it or only remembered half of it? Keep in mind that I have demonstrated many times in the past that I just do not care about talking about the specials. Everything you're saying applies more to you than anybody. I don't believe you for a second when you say you didn't read the PM. You always focus on what you think the specials should do. Your case against me is hypocritical. You're washing your hands of yourself by saying you didn't read the role writeup, and you're ignoring that no other players who probably read the write-up said anything to Ong either

You're saying your best case for a wolf is something that you're giving everybody else, including yourself, a pass for. Looks more like you're blowing smoke up our asses

lol ...thought we already covered this and you are still clinging to the claim that ong looked you up . why would he need to reassess you if he'd looked you up .

Maybe he did, maybe he didn't. If we're going off of behavior, it looks like he looked me up. If we're going off of simple and most-likely-definitive statements, he looked up BID. I went back over it and can see a case for having looked up Gator or maybe Scourrge. Regardless, he was not definitive. But the problem here is that you loved the idea of lynching Keybored because you thought he was the looked-up-wolf, but now you can't be assed to find who else he may have looked up. Standard wolf line.

last sentence should have said "uncertain on wuf"

Originally Posted by gabe

it seems like you launched your entire wolf attack on me based on my keybored vote.

I was on you before that. Have you forgotten that you are the most likely player who would kill Luco, you looked really out of character by thinking bigred was a good lynch even though he was inactive (which you later contradicted by saying inactives should be ignored because they're likely uninterested villagers), and Rilla's post on you was fantastic.

if anyone else that voted for him read your pleas to hold off on his lynch, maybe at least one of them would have seriously considered rescinding, but no one did.

You did it 18 minutes later. It's possible nobody else was even on to see it. But you had to have seen it. You saw it and thought it was best to end the day, even though you would be apt to keep discussion going as a villager and would also think that maybe I wanted to add something more.

no one else was going to die in that time period, except you. i think you were afraid of bolding keybored because you were worried it would make you catch heat. but then you found a patsy in me to make the vote, so i was an easy and predictable target for you. the rilla kill seems like an obvious ploy to get me lynched

That's the last thing the Rilla kill would be. Funny how both you and Bikes say it's about framing you. Rilla kill was straight value at the very least, I would think you would see that as a villager

This is pretty damning for grey:

at 1:09AM he posts:

Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx

Catch 22 for me. If I'm right and he is a wolf, I'm a wolf. If you are saying this because of my vote, its wierd that you are second to vote him.

It would make me your scapegoat if you are the other wolf, and you 2 are trying to create distance from each other.

Your saying his confidence is wolfish is wierd because there is none.This could be you giving a false reason to vote him if you are wolf.

He has acted like his bandwagon is a waste of time. Seems like a good wolf strat, not confidence.

Then almost a half hour later he posts this correction:

Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx

Edit post-
Didn't mean to say other wolf as if there were only 2. I am used to there being 2 baddies in my phrasing.

Why the time delay? If this really was an honest mistake how did he catch it himself? It looks more like a slip-up that a fellow wolf caught.

RE: Bikes above posts

All I see are things that would be really easy for a wolf to say. Not much original thought, not much hunting. Not to mention that he thinks Gabe is the most dangerous WW player here, yet it seems that's the last person he wants lynched. Bikes has gone with that ultra weaksauce that the Rilla kill is trying to frame Gabe.

How far apart were those two gray posts?

hmmm posts 163 and 164

they were like 30 min apart

meh, everything else I read from his screams villager though.

After page three (BID and Scourgge still hadn't posted so keep that in mind) I would put the wolf team at wuf, bikes, gabe and Rong.

That is mostly because Keith and Grey look VERY villagery, and the above four hadn't done anything to make me think they are villagers.

i had nearly forgotten gray was even playing till. all he has done lately is pop in to bold me. he never reassessed anything based on new information either

he does look pretty villagery in style, but honestly i dont like those sorts of reads. they can so easily be used by wolves to their advantage

^^meant to say "till today"

Originally Posted by wufwugy

i had nearly forgotten gray was even playing till. all he has done lately is pop in to bold me. he never reassessed anything based on new information either

he does look pretty villagery in style, but honestly i dont like those sorts of reads. they can so easily be used by wolves to their advantage

This is not the villager wuf I know. Through the first four pages gray made at least two posts where he gave his reads and I agreed pretty much with the reads. YOU are the one who doesn't seem to be putting in the effort.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

YOU are the one who doesn't seem to be putting in the effort.

pray tell

I am done for the night as it is getting late here. I just made it through page 4 (BID was just subbed in) and would say my top candidates for wolves are wuf, gabe, and one (or both) of bikes and rong with a lean toward bikes.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

pray tell

from what I can tell through page 4 there is no fluidity in your thought processes. You seemed to just focus on one player with random thoughts on others thrown out to make it appear you are looking at everything.

sounds like ultra standard day 1

been keeping up but don't have much to contribute since my last post. I still don't like how little we're getting posts from some people (rong the most I think). being inactive may not be condemning automatically, but isn't that the whole point of wolves doing it?? it's hard to lynch people who don't say much.

I basically forgot all about grayfox as well (another pretty inactive player since ~day 2?). Interesting that he started out relatively active but then sort of fell back from the action. If I remember correctly he jumped in to hop on a couple wagons though.

I'm headed to bed now but will try to do some review in the morning and hopefully pick up some stronger reads.

Originally Posted by bikes

though out of all those probably the least likely to be a wolf is gabe because i think the rilla eateds is misdirection intended to frame gabe.

I was thinking the same thing. Bikes and gabe are in my solid village camp. Rong is a close 3rd just because he seems more disinterest than usual and I never had any wolfy vibes from him when he did post.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

my read on Keith appears to be completely wrong as he looks villager.


just a few posts by grey, but leaning village


not much from rong, but his focus on ong makes me lean wolf


Bikes and Gabe look the most like wolves.

I disagree with the second half and agree with the first half.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

How far apart were those two gray posts?

I don't get a damning feel from the GF error at all. Many times in this very game, have I noticed the same thing about my own posts. Half of the time I just carry on. Besides, as Gator mentions, every other post from GF seem villagery.


I'm feeling conflicted about how the survivors of both heads-up day battles (gator and wuf), received no heat on the following days. By heat, I mean nothing close to the pressure they felt on the previous days. It's as if everyones read changed once their opponent flipped village. How does this make any sense?

Originally Posted by wufwugy

It can't be that I proved I read half of it or only remembered half of it?

what are you smoking? your own words prove that you read the part about the angel not being able to protect themselves and that came after the bit about the person protected loses any night abilities that night as well. Are you really trying to claim that you opened the spoiler to read the PM but just jumped to the second half of the text and ignored the first few lines. that is illogical . As for forgetting the first part about the abilities being blocked ,once you read something that is out of the ordinary,it would be memorable.

Keep in mind that I have demonstrated many times in the past that I just do not care about talking about the specials. Everything you're saying applies more to you than anybody. I don't believe you for a second when you say you didn't read the PM. You always focus on what you think the specials should do. Your case against me is hypocritical. You're washing your hands of yourself by saying you didn't read the role writeup, and you're ignoring that no other players who probably read the write-up said anything to Ong either

nobody else except Ong has shown that they had read that role PM in their replies.The real angel would certainly steer clear of mentioning anything about the abilities being blocked or not being able to protect themselves in case it draws attention to themselves by the wolves. At least one of the wolves would have read the role PMs to gain info about the specials abilities . If you were the angel you certainly wouldn't have made that joke about BID , if you were a villager you would have corrected Ongs d3 claim to protect the seer from losing his n3 lookup which only leaves you being a wolf.

You're saying your best case for a wolf is something that you're giving everybody else, including yourself, a pass for. Looks more like you're blowing smoke up our asses

more like you set your own ass on fire

Maybe he did, maybe he didn't. If we're going off of behavior, it looks like he looked me up. If we're going off of simple and most-likely-definitive statements, he looked up BID. I went back over it and can see a case for having looked up Gator or maybe Scourrge. Regardless, he was not definitive. But the problem here is that you loved the idea of lynching Keybored because you thought he was the looked-up-wolf, but now you can't be assed to find who else he may have looked up. Standard wolf line.

I argued the case for keybored because it was the only option that was definitive and he had him in his list of wolves with baudib.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

a500lbgorilla
rilla is just doing his thing, not really getting in anyone's face, appearing to hunt wolves. rilla is an excellent wolf hunter and average wolf, so I'm in no hurry to lynch him while he's not acting in a particularly wolfy manner. I'm leaning villager right now.

BankItDrew --- (GrayFoxxxx #572) (baudib #579) wufwugy #603
Subbed in, has not really stood out for me. I get a vague villager feel from him simply because he doesn't feel particularly awkward.

baudib --- (GrayFoxxxx #571) GatorJH #654
Countless pov slips, very difficult to find the town motivation in his thought process, shady as hell. Wolf.

bikes
I can't even remember what he's posted. Not all that involved, I'd probably lean villager for now but that's because baudib has been after him.

gabe --- GatorJH #652
It doesn't surprise me that gabe is not very prolific at this stage. Dude has been early kill for the last few games he's played. But at the same time his under-the-radar style is perfect for a wolf. Hard to say where I'm at with gabe. Feels a bit wolfy but then again that's normal for gabe.

GatorJH
I wasn't liking him yesterday but I'm not sure gator would agree to kill luco on n1 instead of special hunting. He could accept he's a high value kill, but there's no reason to think he is special because he didn't post and neither did whoever he replaced. Gatorwolf doesn't make bad kills. This was a bad kill. So night action has me thinking villager.

GrayFoxxxx --- wufwugy #605
I've got a general villager feel off him, but I wouldn't want to bet on it.

Keith
Feels like normal keith here. But then wolf keith feels like normal keith.

Keybored
I don't get a good feel off him at all. Far too eager to buddy up to dominant voices, feels particularly awkward, this could be a noob wolf for sure.

OngBonga --- baudib #641
Confirmed awesome and brilliant.

rong
I think he's a villager. So he's probably a wolf.

scourrge
That response to wuf felt pretty good to me, I lean villager.

wufwugy --- baudib #620
I'm heavily leaning villager while baudib looks so wolfy. I'll reassess wuf if baudib is somehow town.



Looks to me like baudib, keybored and one more.

you're trying to argue that bid was the most definitive , using your argument , why not bikes , his comment about bikes is just as bland as the comment about BID and neither of them are anywhere near definitive.They are vague and wishy washy.
In the game whe i launched an attack on wilburforce the seer twice said that i was a villager and i kept using that all through the game to a wolf win. Your claim that Ong looked you up gives the impression that you are trying to force an Ong villager lookup onto the village so that you can hide behind it.

I don't think we can get a clear idea of who ong looked up which makes me suspicious of anyone implying they can.

I think Gabe and wuf are the two I find most wolfy. Wuf is definitely not playing his normal game. Rilla had a hard on for both but if they're both villagers then it's prob a set up and if both wolves prob just clearing the way. I think if they're both villagers then we've lost as I can't see the two of them surviving much longer. Unfortunately both are going to be suspect for the rest of the game regardless of how it pans out so I think lynching one and the vig shooting the other is probably a good way forward.

Day #4 LYNCH NOMINATIONS

* No Time Limit --- Majority of 5 Votes Required to Lynch

gabe - 1
wufugy - 2

_____

BankItDrew --- (wufwugy #880/#882)
bikes
gabe
GatorJH
GrayFoxxxx --- wufwugy #886
Keith --- wufwugy #908
rong
scourrge
wufwugy --- gabe #877

Originally Posted by wufwugy

sounds like ultra standard day 1

It's responses like this that bug me. When is Wuf ever flippant about an accusation?

Keith and Gray,
Who are your top 3 candidates for wolves?

Originally Posted by rong

I think Gabe and wuf are the two I find most wolfy. Wuf is definitely not playing his normal game. Rilla had a hard on for both but if they're both villagers then it's prob a set up and if both wolves prob just clearing the way. I think if they're both villagers then we've lost as I can't see the two of them surviving much longer. Unfortunately both are going to be suspect for the rest of the game regardless of how it pans out so I think lynching one and the vig shooting the other is probably a good way forward.

This would be awesome for the wolf team if both are villagers. Personally I don't think we have enough contingency for the Vig to take a shot until we find a wolf.

Your right gator. A mislynch, a wolf kill and vig shot on a villager is game over.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

It's responses like this that bug me. When is Wuf ever flippant about an accusation?

If it's weak, often.

You didn't accuse me of anything I can respond to. Same with Gray from earlier. He wasn't accusing me of anything. He said he was, but he wasn't.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

You may be right. He wasn't definitive. But I do think the two main things that stand out are that he declared he thinks BID is a villager and he was no longer interested in lynching me. I think every other option is too cryptic to give much merit

If you and BID are wolves you would try to push this interpretation. His whole post was cryptic, and his Keyboard read seemed like the only strong claim. The interaction between you and him is flipfloppy. He votes you then rescinds. You pretty much say Ong looked up you or BID. I didn't get that vibe at all. Why would a villager try and twist Ongs reads like that?

Originally Posted by wufwugy

i had nearly forgotten gray was even playing till. all he has done lately is pop in to bold me. he never reassessed anything based on new information either

he does look pretty villagery in style, but honestly i dont like those sorts of reads. they can so easily be used by wolves to their advantage

I've gotten a wolf feel from you all game, why would I change it now? Especially now that others are thinking you are wolf too.

What sorts of reads are you talking about?

Gator and rong rising in my village camp.

Also, my bad on the keyborred soulread. FWIW though, I nailed the read on ong being villager. This might explain why he thought I was a villager too, not because he looked me up.

BID said in 634

wuf:bdub 1 villager 1 wolf - 75%

BID, do you still feel this way? Why/Why not?

Only one living player tried to get himself seered then when that didn't seem to work tried to get himself vigged. All in a fashion that means it's very likely it would happen and was likely to result in getting lynched instead of either (keep in mind I misread the Day 1 tally and thought I was on the final lynch). It wasn't no side comment of "hey da seer shud look me up", but a dogged pursuit of a specific plan. If I'm a wolf and I dodged the seer and the vig and those lynches, I deserve to win more than any wolves ever have. But nobody's that sick, so it didn't happen. Frankly I didn't even want to do make a plan where the seer looked me up or the vig shoots me because I simply won't do that as a wolf (because it usually follows through and is suicide), but Baudib continually claiming he had me locked down as wolf yet providing no explanation irritated me too much and I thought there was no way he would think that if he was a villager

That said, I don't care if you lynch me. I kinda want you to lynch me. I'm tired and worn out of being vanilla. I have the opposite problem of Gabe and Gator, I never die. I live to every endgame. Wolves don't like nomming me because I'm lynchbait and there may still be the perception that I'm a liability to the village. I remember the only time I was nommed early was because wolfgator said "he's usually wrong but tends to figure it out in the end". Other than that, wolves have always wanted to keep me alive. Maybe it's smart, I don't know. I thought that at least if I got seered or vigged I would have an easy, relaxing road of it where I was either confirmed vil or dead


Regardless, if you're not buying it, kill me. I'll put up my preferred kills soon for after I'm dead. I think I went pretty over the top in this game to prove I'm not a wolf, but whatever

I think BID and WUF are wolves, gabe could also be a wolf. The whole "dont vote yet" thing and then gabe voting could be a faux reason for the two to argue.

Maybe bikes? Not too sure

Rilla says this about who he thinks are wolves. He then votes gabe

{wuf, gabe, bikes, keybored}

{wuf, gabe, bikes}

Well we know keyboard wasnt one. Im willing to bet he got atleast 2 of the 3 and thats why he got eaten.

Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx

I've gotten a wolf feel from you all game, why would I change it now? Especially now that others are thinking you are wolf too.

What sorts of reads are you talking about?

Your "wolf feel" for me is not that believable. At first I thought it was just your lack of experience of how wolves behave, but now I don't. Your case for me was always predicated on the idea that both Baud and I were wolves. At first you said I was trying to scapegoat you for after he flipped wolf, then you started saying we were trying to trick the village by attacking each other. Then after Baud flipped villager, you were like "meh" and spent all of Day 3 on me and now Day 4, all without any further explanation or reevaluating of how Baud flipping villager destroys every case you made previously

I'm super psyched that Gator mentioned you. I really did stop paying attention to you. But basically the entirety of your game has been super standard wolf. You were very active at first but then as things got rolling, you disappeared. But you were still here, you were still bolding me. Now you showed back up after people have mentioned you disappeared

I've never been a fan of the "villager tells" that Ong and others say you have because I think they're easy to exploit. In Night 0, it could have been the simplest thing in the world for Gabe or Bikes to tell you to not pre-edit your posts or misuse quote function. I don't think these things are indicative of role, but I do think overarching style trends and genuine/rational substance are what finds wolves. At first you just looked like a reg old newb who wasn't afraid of posting, but now you look like that mega standard wolf that is active early but then vanishes as the game progresses and gets harder and harder. It's easy to purposely misuse quote function, but it's terribly difficult to post regular rational content without it eventually backfiring

Originally Posted by GatorJH

This is pretty damning for grey:

at 1:09AM he posts:



Then almost a half hour later he posts this correction:



Why the time delay? If this really was an honest mistake how did he catch it himself? It looks more like a slip-up that a fellow wolf caught.

I caught my mistake just rereading it.

Originally Posted by gabe

i was expecting all 3 wolves to pile on me by now.. i probably named all 3 of them bikes/rong/gator and they are scared of getting binked in the end game because of it

Im pretty sure that Gator and rong are village. Not sure about bikes. So this feels kinda wolf to me.

Originally Posted by Keith

I argued the case for keybored because it was the only option that was definitive and he had him in his list of wolves with baudib.
you're trying to argue that bid was the most definitive , using your argument , why not bikes , his comment about bikes is just as bland as the comment about BID and neither of them are anywhere near definitive.They are vague and wishy washy.
In the game whe i launched an attack on wilburforce the seer twice said that i was a villager and i kept using that all through the game to a wolf win. Your claim that Ong looked you up gives the impression that you are trying to force an Ong villager lookup onto the village so that you can hide behind it.

Look at all his Day 2 posts, not just that particular one. His behavior towards me changed dramatically. It was as if he didn't even think it was possible I was a wolf anymore. He was a 1000% game with lynching Baud; whereas on Day 1 he didn't know between who he wanted to lynch between Baud and me. In a different post, he said BID looks like a villager and isn't worried about him.

I think the best I can do is apply probability to how often I think he looked one of us up. Maybe he didn't even try to tell the village who he looked up. I disagree with that choice, but whatever

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Only one living player tried to get himself seered then when that didn't seem to work tried to get himself vigged. All in a fashion that means it's very likely it would happen and was likely to result in getting lynched instead of either (keep in mind I misread the Day 1 tally and thought I was on the final lynch). It wasn't no side comment of "hey da seer shud look me up", but a dogged pursuit of a specific plan. If I'm a wolf and I dodged the seer and the vig and those lynches, I deserve to win more than any wolves ever have. But nobody's that sick, so it didn't happen. Frankly I didn't even want to do make a plan where the seer looked me up or the vig shoots me because I simply won't do that as a wolf (because it usually follows through and is suicide), but Baudib continually claiming he had me locked down as wolf yet providing no explanation irritated me too much and I thought there was no way he would think that if he was a villager

That said, I don't care if you lynch me. I kinda want you to lynch me. I'm tired and worn out of being vanilla. I have the opposite problem of Gabe and Gator, I never die. I live to every endgame. Wolves don't like nomming me because I'm lynchbait and there may still be the perception that I'm a liability to the village. I remember the only time I was nommed early was because wolfgator said "he's usually wrong but tends to figure it out in the end". Other than that, wolves have always wanted to keep me alive. Maybe it's smart, I don't know. I thought that at least if I got seered or vigged I would have an easy, relaxing road of it where I was either confirmed vil or dead


Regardless, if you're not buying it, kill me. I'll put up my preferred kills soon for after I'm dead. I think I went pretty over the top in this game to prove I'm not a wolf, but whatever

quoting this because if you are a villager this is a pretty lousy post

Originally Posted by bikes

ok so, this game is more difficult to play when you sub people in and out >.>

on day #2 it starts out with a greyfoxx bandwagon and suddenly it stops. after 2 posts. this mostly because everyone wanted baudib gone so he would stop posting. baudib posts greyfoxx and bid follows behind him. bid recinds a few posts later. somewhere around like post #570 this begins.

wufwugy train follows behind it. followed by posts of circlejerking. few posts later rilla seems to think greyfoxx is not a wolf.

it seems strange to me that people actually seemed to believe that baudib could flip wolf some reasonably okayish % of the time. i simply wanted baudib gone so i could read this thread easier.

gator train after.


i gotta believe that wufwugy is a wolf some large % of the time just based on how close day #1 was. maybe things have changed but day #1s have always been mostly laughs and then lynching someone to get the day over with so we can all play. it seems plausible that wufwugy could be a wolf.

so from the people who voted bigred day #1 we have

rilla - ded
bikes
gabe
gator
keyboard - ded
rong


which leaves the people who voted for wuf

bid
baudib - ded
grayfox
keith
ongbonga - ded


no votes scourrge and wufwugy votes baudib of all people.

i think there has to be a wolf inbetween wufwugy, gabe gator and rong.

You forgot to use your own name in there with that logic. You did the same as everyone of your wolf candidates.

Then you follow it up with

though out of all those probably the least likely to be a wolf is gabe because i think the rilla eateds is misdirection intended to frame gabe.

gabe is clearly more wolf than gator and rong...These seem like empty reads that a wolf would say .

Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx

BID said in 634
(I said there was at least one wolf between wuf and baud 75% of the time)
BID, do you still feel this way? Why/Why not?

No, I don't feel this way anymore. I think wuf is a wolf 90% of the time now. The only reason I rescinded him today was because after I voted for him, I read the narrators post in its entirety, and noticed there was no deadline for today. I just wanted to hear from everyone before I made my final decision.

Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx

Im pretty sure that Gator and rong are village. Not sure about bikes. So this feels kinda wolf to me.

I agree with this 100%. I hate flip-flopping on gabe like this but with new information comes new suspicions.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

I think the best I can do is apply probability to how often I think he looked one of us up. Maybe he didn't even try to tell the village who he looked up. I disagree with that choice, but whatever

Solution: ong looked me up and discovered I am a villager. Case closed. Let's lynch wuf.

so day1 ong said

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I just realised something.

My d1 soulread attempt is lacking in dan or wuf. That must be a first.

I think we're looking at baudib, gator and keybored.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm pretty much always suspicious of wuf. The difference here is I'm more suspicious of you, gator and keybored.

looking at those posts i think its more likely that ong looked up gator on n1 and rilla' point about "night action" was probably correct. which gives me a tentative village lean on gator .

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Your "wolf feel" for me is not that believable. At first I thought it was just your lack of experience of how wolves behave, but now I don't. Your case for me was always predicated on the idea that both Baud and I were wolves.It was at first, not always. At first you said I was trying to scapegoat you for after he flipped wolf, then you started saying we were trying to trick the village by attacking each other. Then after Baud flipped villager, you were like "meh" and spent all of Day 3 on me and now Day 4, all without any further explanation or reevaluating of how Baud flipping villager destroys every case you made previously

I'm super psyched that Gator mentioned you. I really did stop paying attention to you.Why? I have voted you almost all game like you said. A villager would probably try to point this out before now. A wolf wouldn't acknowledge it so the flame couldn't grow bigger. But basically the entirety of your game has been super standard wolf. You were very active at first but then as things got rolling, you disappeared. But you were still here, you were still bolding me. Now you showed back up after people have mentioned you disappeared.What am I supposed to do? Not post? Just because you summed up what Ive done so far doesn't make it wolf.

I've never been a fan of the "villager tells" that Ong and others say you have because I think they're easy to exploit. In Night 0, it could have been the simplest thing in the world for Gabe or Bikes to tell you to not pre-edit your posts or misuse quote function. I don't think these things are indicative of role, but I do think overarching style trends and genuine/rational substance are what finds wolves. At first you just looked like a reg old newb who wasn't afraid of posting, but now you look like that mega standard wolf that is active early but then vanishes as the game progresses and gets harder and harder.Ive read a few games, and Ive never seen this happen. Alot of your game has been "My experience tells me this". Seems like an easy way for a wolf to ignore actual context, and post reads that can't really be countered. It's easy to purposely misuse quote function, but it's terribly difficult to post regular rational content without it eventually backfiringSo basically you are saying I am wolf, because I'm confident in my read on you, and havent posted alot?

^

im feeling a grayfox lynch. saying "[player] is clearly ___" is being definitive in a setting where nothing is definite or obvious. i think wolves make statements like that. if i recall right, i nailed gator on this a few games ago for a post where he was like "bla bla is defintely right"


ill give you some bait though....what makes you think such a thing is clear? ive been trying to keep the village on the path towards victory the whole game and gator and rong are on the sidelines, the most comfortable place for wolves

I'm caught up now so here you go in order of wolfiness

Wuf-90%
Gabe-70%
Bikes 65%
Bid 60%
scourrge (kinda hard to say much on this guy so I guess 50%)
Gator 35%
Rong- 25%
Kieth- 12%
GrayFoxxxx- 0%

Percentages arent really exact just kind of a general feel.

Originally Posted by gabe

ive been trying to keep the village on the path towards victory the whole game

If I was you and I was a wolf, I'd say the same thing.

Also, I feel that gabe and wuf are wolves and gabe is trying to start a GF train to get people off of a wuf lynch.

Originally Posted by Keith

so day1 ong said





looking at those posts i think its more likely that ong looked up gator on n1 and rilla' point about "night action" was probably correct. which gives me a tentative village lean on gator .

Yeah Gator is probably my third pick for Ong's lookup. The problem is that at first on Day 2 he was saying how Gator could have done the Luco kill. By the end of Day 2 he said he thought that read was wrong and Gator is probably a villager

Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx

I'm caught up now so here you go in order of wolfiness

Wuf-90%
Gabe-70%
Bikes 65%
Bid 60%
scourrge (kinda hard to say much on this guy so I guess 50%)
Gator 35%
Rong- 25%
Kieth- 12%
GrayFoxxxx- 0%

Percentages arent really exact just kind of a general feel.

It should add up to 300%... just sayin'...

Originally Posted by gabe

im feeling a grayfox lynch. saying "[player] is clearly ___" is being definitive in a setting where nothing is definite or obvious. i think wolves make statements like that. if i recall right, i nailed gator on this a few games ago for a post where he was like "bla bla is defintely right"


ill give you some bait though....what makes you think such a thing is clear? ive been trying to keep the village on the path towards victory the whole game and gator and rong are on the sidelines, the most comfortable place for wolves

Can you show me what you are referencing?

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

It should add up to 300%... just sayin'...

Its more of a what percentage of the time is this person a wolf. Not really trying to nail all 3 with that post or I would Have the top 3 at 100%

Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx

Its more of a what percentage of the time is this person a wolf. Not really trying to nail all 3 with that post or I would Have the top 3 at 100%

I don't think this makes any sense but whatev, just sayin'...

Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx

So basically you are saying I am wolf, because I'm confident in my read on you, and havent posted alot?

I'm saying you're a wolf for mainly two reasons

(1) Early activity then suspicious drop off in midgame. We've caught many a wolfie doing that, especially less experienced ones. I'm similar to Rilla in that I think overarching style is highly indicative of role. It isn't even just that there was a drop off in your play, but the nuances of it. You were still here, you were still up to date enough to pop in a bold me. I think your behavior is very much like what newb wolves do. I mean, it's really hard for vet wolves to not do, so it's sensible that newbs do it more. Additionally, you had a handful of posts during that drop off period where you said things like "I think BID could be a wolf, imma go back and check" but then you never posted about it again. And now that you've been mentioned for this strange dropoff, you've come roaring back. Wolf City

(2) I dont think you are confident of your read of me because according to your own explanation of your read of me, you shouldn't be confident in it because Baud didn't flip wolf. Every single thing you said about me being a wolf depended on Baud being a wolf. I think a villager looks at that and says "hmm, maybe I'm wrong. I don't wanna be wrong." Then reevaluates. Wolves, however, have it hard and tend to have to stick to reads that aren't so good

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Going to bed soon. I'm assuming Day will be over soon

I would prefer to be lynched because if Baudib shows up as villager, I'll take it personally and get too engrossed in the game. I'm an alcoholic of werewolf

The case for Baud being a wolf is stellar. His process is not village. He's not making a case for anything. I don't feel a need to go further into detail. You're gonna have to lynch him after I die

BID is the next best lynch. The case I made about probability of his role being non-vanilla is strong. Also the case I made in just a couple posts above this one is great. Unless he's not truthful about those 200 posts, either it's all just a coincidence or the wolfies told him he's getting heat over the sub

My two least likely wolves are Gray and Rong. Gray because he's doing all sorts of nub-vil reads. Like he thinks he has something with his read on me. He's trying to explain why it's good, but we all know that after a few games under his belt, he'll see why it isn't. Rong for a read I would prefer to not say

Also Bigred. I do think my logic is sound with how he's just a level 1 player who sees what role he gets then has enthusiasm degree based on it

Beware of Ong. If he's a villager, this is a better village game than normal, but if he's a wolf it's also a better wolf game. He said this



Which suggests he doesn't care who between me and Baud die. I'm not going to extend the deadline, and if he was villaging he would care more about getting his vote on the right player than relying on something like me opting to get it extended


Anyways, good hunting. It has been a productive day. I accept the lynch. I was a baddy in the previous game and this one has too many players who don't have a feel for how I play for me to survive. Kill Baud and BID

considering rong minimal play during the game , what is the read that you had on dan that made you think he's a villager. you went into detail about gray why not for DAn?

n1 Luco dies and wuf said

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Baudib is a wolf here almost always. If he's not a wolf, it means he has quite a strange personality (maybe he does, I don't know). Virtually any villager who thinks I'm such a wolf would go after ME, not after people not named me based on a read he has on me. It's strange for a villager to be so ultra confident in a read that he doesn't even need to confirmation of my role to go after others. I think this is all a plan from the wolves. I'll explain further soon. Regardless, Baud is behaving unlike any villager we've ever seen and is refusing to acknowledge any of the things that demonstrate that I'm a villager. I hope it isn't just his inexperience, but I doubt it. Both he and I thought I was dead yesterday


I think the nom is deliberate. I think the wolf team is at least two high profile regs. I don't think they are afraid of the seer (due to half as many lookups) so they're not special hunting. I think they want to keep as many high profile players around as possible so they can hide better and point the finger better

If this is their plan and it involves Baudib trying to destroy me, they'll win. Not so much the game, but they will beat me. It makes sense that Baud wants me alive till the end, since that's the time I've always bragged about being the best. I don't have it in me anymore though

My guesses for wolf teams right now includes mainly Baud Bikes Gabe BID Keith and Ong. I think all of them would be game with the Luco kill and the FPS and sending Baud hounding after me. Gator, Rilla, and Rong would be less inclined to go in that direction, but not entirely I guess

Anyways, the last time I thought the wolves were scheming like this, I was wrong. But the Luco lynch changes things. I think the most probable explanation is they're trying to be tricky

isn't the two high profile wolves one hell of a leap from a LUCO nom.the fact that Ong was next to die and gator rilla and gabe all survived to day 3 makes me wonder if wuf + two lower profile players are the wolves and making this suggestion was designed to make the village paranoid about gabe,rilla and gator so that they became the lynches and vig victims leaving the wolves in a strong position going into the later days of the game.

Originally Posted by wufwugy

I think a villager looks at that and says "hmm, maybe I'm wrong. I don't wanna be wrong." Then reevaluates. Wolves, however, have it hard and tend to have to stick to reads that aren't so good

So according to your logic, you're a wolf every game.

Keith recently quoted and responded to something wuf said a couple of days ago. The more damning evidence than what he found in the quote is what I found imo:

My two least likely wolves are Gray and Rong. Gray because he's doing all sorts of nub-vil reads. Like he thinks he has something with his read on me. He's trying to explain why it's good, but we all know that after a few games under his belt, he'll see why it isn't.

This is in direct contradiction to how he feels about GF now with regards to his reads.

Gabe, Keith, gator. That's my picks.

I'll be amazed if wuf turns out to be a wolf.

If he is then he's done something very different this game which he's never done before.

Well, here it is:


BID - I've always said I don't read him well. Ong has always said he reads him very well. There is a decent chance (I'm guessing about 33%) that Ong looked him up. Ong said he thinks he's a villager and isn't concerned. I'm gonna take Ong's word for it. Other than that, I haven't made much head or toes of the idea that Creds was the first sub due to not being vanilla. I've made a case for why that could be, but also why it wouldn't be. I'm gonna ignore it and go with better ideas. That idea is Ong possibly looking him up and Ong saying he reads BID well

Conclusion: BID IS A VILLAGER!


Bikes - Baud said he's a wolf. Bikes said he waits till Day 4 to prove he's the bizness, yet it's Day 4 and he's done fuckall except some noise that any wolfie with no real opinion could post. Bikes was Rilla's #2 baddy pick. I don't for a second buy that Rilla was killed for anything other than value. Bikes has acted strangely about Gabe. Normally he would want to lynch Gabe early since he thinks Gabe is so dangerous, but now he thinks that nutlow idea that Rilla was killed to frame Gabe. Funny how an easier way to kill Gabe would be to just leave Rilla alive and let him go for it. When I look across the meadow to see who has been doing the least yet trying to look active, Bikes is there, prancing about, clutching dandelions in his fists

Conclusion: BIKES IS A WOLF!


Gabe - Rilla was right. I'm dead serious in that his read is enough for me to want Gabe dead. I was having the same kind of idea at the time, but Rilla put it together first. I jumped on immediately because it was a great read. Additionally, I don't like how Gabe defended the Bigred lynch the way he did. I don't like how he contradicted that defense later. I don't like how he said he's "trying to make a great case on somebody" then comes up with major weaksauce on Gator, but then added nothing more. I don't like how the main person who would go FPS and kill Luco is Gabe (and possibly Bikes). I HATE

I accidentally submitted a post and immediately deleted it. My keyboard is dumb and some misclicks send me back a page or forward a page. This time it just auto submitted it, but I deleted it because it wasn't close to finished. I'll send the text to d-hoobs now in case he wants to post it, but there won't be any need since I'm going to post the whole post once it's done

{I fixed some things - a500lbgorilla}

"I don't like how Gabe defended the Bigred lynch the way he did. I don't like how he contradicted that defense later"

thats not what happened. i was just pointing out my general theory on substitutions (theory being that people who get subbed in are slightly less likely to have a special role because the person they are subbing in for is more likely to be active given a special PM). i didnt backtrack on bigred. i was pointing out a specific piece of reasoning you were using that i think is wrong

Originally Posted by wufwugy

Yeah Gator is probably my third pick for Ong's lookup. The problem is that at first on Day 2 he was saying how Gator could have done the Luco kill. By the end of Day 2 he said he thought that read was wrong and Gator is probably a villager

oh come on wuf ....you are getting sloppy now . this was Ongs first post of day2

Originally Posted by OngBonga

No wuf, I just naively thought that you'd realise those extra few hours might have been golden for the village, and when you throw in the fact you're one of the leading wagons, I figured your hand was forced too. Silly me.

luco kill is either gator, or designed to look like gator. Who would know that gator considers luco a threat? Someone who reads old wolf den threads maybe?

luco kill is baudib trying to frame gator. There's a fucking soulread. wuf you got nothing on me.

this is yet more evidence that Ong looked up Gator otherwise how could he be so confident that the kill was designed to frame gator .

Originally Posted by GrayFoxxxx

Can you show me what you are referencing?

what? you used the word "clearly" right before i posted


with 9 people left, your percentages should probably be in the 10-50% range. regardless of how much you like your theories, no one can have a likelihood of 90%.