Drug smugglers and Feds gameplay thread

[a500lbgorilla]

Yeah, but what's also interesting is that Bikes isn't here defending himself at all. I would think even a villager would throw out the standard "meh, I am just a villager guys" post, but nothing.

Ohhhh, is that why he isn't posting now? I thought that was an explanation for earlier in the game.

I like this, too. The reason he pivots from bikes and begins to pay attention to JV is all in the flow of the game.

[Keith]

Jyms .....put your thoughts out there ....whichever of you and wuf goes through to tomorrow help wuf out with your thoughts between gator and rilla , god knows he needs all the help he can get. Yours are the only words that wuf can rely on .once i'm dead its likely that you die and can no longer help.

[a500lbgorilla]

Well, the first one didn't pan out. When I first read the following from rilla I thought it might have been a pre-made wolf post assuming the Gabe lookup had been blocked, while Wuf had just posted that he did get a Gabe lookup.

Then I noticed it was probably a timing issue as wuf's post was just 15 minutes before this one and was actually pretty easy to miss the first time around.

This is a top spot, too.

[Keith]

so does you voting to lynch me mean that you agree that jyms/wuf should lynch you tomorrow since you are tiping your hat to Gator?

[jyms]

The last few days have you guys all circling around from fed to gang. I have gator as almost 100% gang now and I am going to lose if gator is the last fed and takes out Wuf. That said, I fully expect it to be that way when I lynch keith and I'm going to get owned tomorrow. The information is all going to be gut feeling now.

Lynch Keith

[Keith]

too late now ......im dead ....and im a villager

[a500lbgorilla]

This must be one of those posts you were talking about (He is talking about Daven here) where he is just on the fringe of a commitment.

This post was the origin of my suspicion. Once I stopped posting about JV, I saw he started. I thought at this point, it was pretty clear to JV that I wasn't going to let go.

I have made worse mistakes in the past.

[rong]

Day's over. A majority has been reached.

[rong]

Unlike some of the gang members, who when facing strong accusations decided to try to escape, Keith stuck to his guns and faced his accusers head on.

Wufwugy laid out his case and refused to acknowledge any counter argument. This infuriated keith but didn't slow him down. He was certain he had the last fed figured out and wasn't going to let these fools make any more mistakes, enough of his friends had already been murdered.

Once Rilla waded in as well Keith realised his defence was futile and he started threatening suicide to prove his honesty. This just made him appear desperate, and realising he was getting closer to death, Keith made a bee line for Rilla, armed with a hatchet.

Jyms tackled him to the ground and held him there while Rilla, confident he was dealing with a fed and energised by adrenaline, raised his size 11 boot and brought it down on keith's head with all the power he could muster.

Keith's head popped like tomato under a truck. Both eyes flew out at great speed and bounced back reminiscent of a bolo bat. Keith's brain seeped out the empty sockets.

The remaining gang looked at eachother, a little grossed out, uncertain of whether they had actually found the last fed or not.

The murder of one of them later that night would reveale that Keith had in fact been a regular gang member.


It's night 7. 17 hours of night remain.


The living:

Gator
Wuf
Jyms
The Rilla



the dead

Day 1: eugmac, a regular gang member, lynched by the village.
Night 1: wolves thwarted by angel
Day 2: Daven, a regular villager, lynched by the village.
Night 2: Pascal, a regular villager, was modkilled.
Night 2: Ongbonga, a Fed, was killed by the Vig.
Night 2: Hoopy, the connected gang member, was killed by the feds.
NIght 2: Daven, was revived.
Day 3: JV, a Fed, was lynched by the village.
Night 3: Gabe, a regular village, was killed by the Feds.
Night 3: wolves Vig shot thwarted by angel
Day 4: MMM, a regular gang member, was modkilled for self lynching.
Night 4: NightGizmo, a regular gang member, was killed by the Vig.
Night 4: daven, a regular gang member, was killed by the feds.
Day 5: ImSavy, a regular gang member, was lynched by the village.
Night 5: Luco, the reviver, was killed by the feds.
Day 6: Bikes, a regular gang member, was lynched by the village.
Night 6: aubrey, a fed, was killed by the Vig.
Night 6: JKDS, the angel, was killed by the feds.
Day 7: Keith, a regular gang member, was lynched by the village.

[rong]

Keith's final act of aggression left the gang feeling certain that the final Fed had been found. High fives went all round and everyone began to relax. They started planning the final stages of their drug deal and even got a little excited at the now huge slice of the pie each would be getting. That evening they had few drinks and toasted the lives of their fallen friends.

After dinner, they each retired to their rooms for an early night as work would begin early the next day.

Wuf settled in to his chair and fired up his laptop. He was deep into an argument on some forum about the optimum height/weight ratio for the perfect girl. Lots of people thought he was a chubby chaser but he knew they were all wrong.

Jyms began lifting weights. He was muttering a mantra about abs being made in the kitchen as he performed perfect squats in front of a mirror, admiring the definition of his thighs as he moved.

There was a strange noise coming from outside. The hair on the back of Wuf's neck stood up. He brushed off the feeling of uneasiness and put it down to paranoia due to the weeks of fear and mistrust. He minimised the window he was staring at just in case someone was at the window as he didn't want anyone to see that he'd been looking at hdbbw.net. He walked over to the window, opened the curtains and opened the window, stuck his head out and peered into the darkness.

Jyms finished his reps and headed to the shower, admiring himself in his full length mirror as he went. He also heard something coming from outside. He walked over to the window and peered out through the glass. He couldn't see anything. Then he heard it again. What was that? He opened the window and poked his head out to get a better look.

Wuf caught something out of the corner of his eye. He ducked back inside and listened. He grabbed a mirror and angled it so he could see outside. He caught Jyms in the reflection and stuck his head back out and shouted over to him.

Jyms heard wuf and asked him what the fuck he'd been doing out there making so much noise. Wuf explained that it wasn't him and the two of them stared out into the darkness trying to see what it might have been.

The fed looked at both of the red faces staring out at him. Both of their foreheads slightly overgrown due to the roids. He wouldn't be able to get them both from his current position so he made his choice and fired. A loud crack echoed off the surrounding landscape.

A couple of minutes later Rilla and Gator appeared in the hallway by the adjoining rooms occupied by Wuf and Jyms. They looked at each other. Neither spoke. Both knew, and both knew the other knew.

Jyms was standing in his doorway, holding on to the frame and looking out at Rilla & Gator accusingly. Rilla and Gator walked over to wuf's door and opened it. Wuf was lying on the floor by the window.

They walked over to his body expecting to see a bloody mess but instead they found him alert and agitated.

"It wasn't Keith, Jyms just got shot!".

"We just saw Jyms in the hall." Said Gator.

"He looked fine." Said Rilla.

The three of them ran to the hall way to find jyms lying on the floor in his doorway. A bullet had pierced the base of his neck. From the angle they'd seen him from before he had looked fine, a little angry and red faced, sure, but they had put that down to the roids. They hadn't been able to see the damage done to the other side of his body. It was quite a mess, it was amazing he had stood up for so long.

Wuf pulled a gun out and aimed it at rilla and gator. "One of you is gonna die right now." He ushered them into the kitchen where they sat down, Wuf on one side of the table, gun in hand, rilla and gator sitting next to each other on the other side.

The arguing began.


The living:

Gator
Wuf
The Rilla



the dead

Day 1: eugmac, a regular gang member, lynched by the village.
Night 1: wolves thwarted by angel
Day 2: Daven, a regular villager, lynched by the village.
Night 2: Pascal, a regular villager, was modkilled.
Night 2: Ongbonga, a Fed, was killed by the Vig.
Night 2: Hoopy, the connected gang member, was killed by the feds.
NIght 2: Daven, was revived.
Day 3: JV, a Fed, was lynched by the village.
Night 3: Gabe, a regular village, was killed by the Feds.
Night 3: wolves Vig shot thwarted by angel
Day 4: MMM, a regular gang member, was modkilled for self lynching.
Night 4: NightGizmo, a regular gang member, was killed by the Vig.
Night 4: daven, a regular gang member, was killed by the feds.
Day 5: ImSavy, a regular gang member, was lynched by the village.
Night 5: Luco, the reviver, was killed by the feds.
Day 6: Bikes, a regular gang member, was lynched by the village.
Night 6: aubrey, a fed, was killed by the Vig.
Night 6: JKDS, the angel, was killed by the feds.
Day 7: Keith, a regular gang member, was lynched by the village.
Night 7: Jyms, the pussy killer, was killed by the feds.


Once again, I want to be clear that the narrative has nothing to do with roles.

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 1 -------

#14

cool intro. No bigred means no easy lynch on day 1.

Btw, with this strong field what's the over/under on the "Gators still alive he must be a wolf" conversation?

#20

For some reason Jyms always looks wolfy to me as well and have been very surprised recently when he showed villager.

Of course based on recent results I would have to agree with his analysis.

#33

This is an interesting post. What would be considered "good cause"? Since day 1 is a crapshoot and this is a strong field I will (as usual) be leaning toward lynching an inactive, but it is still pretty early.

#40

I had the same angst with Bigred not playing.

#67

I actually laughed out loud at this.

#86

pascal still hasn't bothered to post so let's see what happens if we start a lynch pascal wagon.

#128

Can't wait to read this.

Pascal still hasn't shown up so I am sticking with him for now.

#154

I can't imagine any wolf, especially Daven being that transparent on Day 1 unless it is a specific strategy which I think we would spot later, but not today.

#206

Just noticed this when reviewing something and will rescind Pascal for now as I assume Rong will give us plenty of notice before we have to lynch or modkill.

#230

If mojo is a wolf he will be pretty easy to spot later on. I think Daven was the exception to newbies being good wolves.

I don't like a Pascal lynch until tomorrow and as I mentioned earlier Jyms always looks suspicious to me. It must be his posting style and since he has turned villager the last two days I will discount my read for now.

Simply relying on memory ( I will look through the thread later this afternoon) Eug and savy seem the wolfiest to me, but if Gabe doesn't start posting some content soon I will gladly jump on his bandwagon.

#280

Don't your first and second argument contradict each other? If reviving an inactive is bad, but reviving must happen before night 3 then why would we give the reviver less options by lynching an inactive on day 1, ESPECIALLY since we know they won't be modkilled until night 2?

#317

I really like how rilla drives thought and until something happens he is in my villager camp. I also remember the last time he and I both made it to end game (the one where I self lynched to seal the deal) he was extremely good at reading people, therefore if I am going to go with a potential soulread on day 1 it will be with Rilla.

lynch eug

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 2 -------

#380

This exactly!!! Pretty busy at work today but am hoping to find some time to review Day 1. From what I remember though Gizmo seemed to stick out the most for me.

Also Aubrey's defense post at the end of the day was weird so combine that with suspicion from others and she is flying up my radar.

Last game Wuf tried to tone it down on day 1, but that didn't last long and by day 2 the mega posts were back. Not sure if he is just trying to balance his range, but I would like to see more analysis from him (it helped me find Rong at the end of the game last time).

Jyms doesn't look as wolfish to me this game as he did in the past (when he was a villager) so naturally I am wondering if that means he is a wolf this time (of course this FPS thinking is usually wrong with me so meh).

Rilla seems villager to me and so does Gabe as I don't think he would push that hard for a lynch on day 1 if he were a wolf.

#416

sorry for being totally unavailable today guys, but work totally sucked and I am tired as shit right now. My early afternoon is fairly light so I should have time to catch up on the last few pages.

#578

OK, work no longer sucks now so I am back online and TRYING to catch up. Just scanned the last few pages and HOLY SHIT!!! I can't remember the last time a game got this interesting on Day 2, but IIRC it was a similar situation as this and the village rolled so I like our chances.

Before I go back through Ong's posts to see if I can pickup on anything I will post some of my general thoughts on the discussions that have happened recently.

Vig has to shoot Ong tonight, not lynch Ong and shoot X. I totally agree with whoever (I think it was Jyms) stated that shooting anyone other than Ong risks hitting a special. If Rong could confirm that actions happen before modkill then there may be some value in shooting Pascal if he still hasn't shown up (which would give him until the very end of the day to get here), but I haven't completely thought that through so there may be flaws to that strategy.

#581

I just went through Ong's Day 1 posts and excuse me if this has been covered (which it probably has and I just haven't made it that far in my read), but I don't see Daven being a Fed. While Ong voted for several people on Day 1 he targeted Daven the hardest which would be a pretty balsy play on Day 1. He even left his Daven vote out there when it could go either way and finally targeted him AGAIN later in the day (I am pretty sure the Eug bandwagon had stalled about that time).

That's a pretty balsy play if Daven really is a Fed.

Now, with that said, if Daven DOES flip Fed I think the last two may be Luco and Imsavvy. VERY early in Day one he voted for them then pretty quickly rescinded. This would also fit with the some of the wolves may be weak theory, which would also explain the higher variance play with Daven and Ong. He also then threw out an "early villager read" for savvy later in the day. Personally I see this being more wolf day one banter than the Daven thing.

Keep in mind those are my thoughts from reading ong's, and ONLY ong's, day one posts.

#631

Yes I am and outside of yesterday/last night have been as active as I always am in early games. I am not as good as Rilla/Gabe/JV, etc. in finding wolves based on early game nuances so I tend to hang back, however I think I am pretty good at putting the pieces of the puzzle together once a wolf or two are found. In this case, as I already said I would be surprised to find Daven is a Fed but would not be surprised to find one of Savy or Luco as a Fed.

#634

Lynching Gabe so he can get revived is so bad of an idea it isn't funny. Whoever gets revived is most likely going to get nommed the next night which loses Gabe for end game and that is just shortsighted thinking.

#640

Now THAT is a good catch imo and could definitely be a panic type mistake.

#642

It looks like that to me? I would think you would get two PM's from Rong, One letting you know who the Seer looked up and one telling you the Vig wants you to shoot someone. Why can't you wait till both come in before firing a shot?

#670

Good point.

Also, Daven is definitely looking more and more like a panicking wolf so since I am about to head out for the evening and won't be back before the day ends I will go with a lynch daven.

#671

That's exactly why I said it was an epically bad idea.

#700

I thought for sure the thread would be closed by now. What happened to Rong?

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 3 -------

#777

I think Luco and Bikes may be two of the final Feds. I mentioned earlier that I think one of either Luco or Savy were a Fed based on Ong bolding them quickly on day 1, but then rescinding them just as quickly and I still feel that way. Then Bikes makes the above posts and puts Luco at 95% villager because "Ong bolded him on day 1" even though he rescinded 15 minutes after bolding him. I need to go back through Bikes' posts, but feel confident enough now to say we should lynch bikes

Btw, I also noticed a couple of wolfish posts by Jyms and what could be a single mistake by a Fed Rilla. I will post them as soon as I go through Bikes' posts.

#779

Ong hoping his fellow Fed will show up?



My guess here is that Bikes hadn't shown up in the wolf den yet so Ong was hoping to build some villager cred in case we decided to lynch and inactive.



Now he switches his stance on which inactive to lynch. Why?


Bikes then shows up and make the following post:



As a villager, he of all people should be willing to give Pascal the maximum amount of time



The best evidence so far that Bikes is a fed, imo. At this point there were several people who had 2 votes and Gabe had 3. He makes this statement, but doesn't explain at all why he chose Eug over Wuf, Jyms or daven. It's almost like he was trying to buddy up to villager gabe (which wolves like to do sometimes).



Shortly after that Ong made this post and we definitely know that Feds don't like to be on the same wagon if at all possible.

In fact, Ong's very next post was this.....



Wolf bandwagon separation?

I am through Day 1 now and still very convinced Bikes is a Fed.

#783

Bikes' first post on Day 2....



Totally contradicts his post on day 1



I am not reading all of the posts, but am pretty sure there was already heat on Aubrey at this point so meh on this post.



Trying to clarify the angel's save capabilities. Wolf trying to get info?



So on Day 1 he doesn't think Gabe should be lynched, but now he is ok with it? Could it be that they discussed getting myself or Gabe killed on Day 2, revived then nommed again on night 3?



just trying to look villagery without really adding value.



Rescinded Gabe when wuf outed Ong, but didn't bold Ong.



He makes this post after Wuf's epic Gabe and Daven are Feds post. We already know how that turned out.



Makes this long post which references several people and could be used to direct village away from other Feds if he is lynched. Not a lot of solid info here imo.



Panic'd wolf giving horrible advice?



nothing major here.



Fence sitting? Notice he doesn't strongly back Jyms as a villager, just casually mentions it.

i think the best lynch choices tonight are nightgizmo jackvance or aubrey.

i still have no clue wtf jyms is doing but i don't get the wolfy vibe from him. its more the chicken with it's head cut off vibe. i am like 95% positive that luco is for sure villager based on how early ong voted to lynch him day 1. and imsavy is probably town 80%+ of the time based on ongbonga's interaction with him imo.

And now we are back to the original post that got me looking at him. Notice that Aubrey is now at the top of his list even though he thought she was town earlier? He also doesn't mention JV earlier, but now wants to lynch him and throws Gizmo in that mix as well. My read on this is that Gizmo may be the "misdirection" Fed but not sure about that one yet.

I'm not sure how Bikes isn't a fed like 90% of the time here.

#785

That would certainly be a good defense and I was focused just on Bikes with that review.

#797

This makes me think that they aren't BOTH wolves. If they were I would expect Gizmo to focus on a defense and not jump on Bikes' bandwagon.

#799

Ummmm, I have no idea what that means Mr. Wufinator. Does that mean you think they can still be on the same team or not?

#829

Sorry about that.


For everyone else, the last section should read as follows:



And now we are back to the original post that got me looking at him. Notice that Aubrey is now at the top of his list even though he thought she was town earlier? He also doesn't mention JV earlier, but now wants to lynch him and throws Gizmo in that mix as well. My read on this is that Gizmo may be the "misdirection" Fed but not sure about that one yet.

I'm not sure how Bikes isn't a fed like 90% of the time here.

#831

Please do tell why I was your "day 1 hunch"?

#833

I would love to hear your thoughts on this. I can't find a reason to think Bikes is NOT a Fed and I always have a shit hard time reading JV so any thoughts here would be helpful.

#834

LOL, well unfortunately for you, you are at least half wrong on this one with me.

#840

If this is true it blows the crap out of half of my theory.

Still think Bikes is Fed though!!!

#843

Totally agree here and I could definitely see a wolf like Ong telling him to play that way.

#847

I dunno. Newbies are so much easier to get wolf tells off of that I could see him telling them to play that style more in early game as they get their feet wet, although he may not have let them get THIS far disengaged with the village.

#848

It would be nice to hear from our confirmed villagers.

Wuf, Gabe, JKDS. Where are you guys?

#851

Where did I ever say you were villager 80% of the time? I know Ong said that, but not me.

#852

WTF???

#854

yeah, now I see where your confusion was. Sorry about the quote issue.

#888

I guess I see what you are saying here and if you are that in tune with jv's playing style that it makes sense, however if I apply that same "in the game" logic to myself your theory starts to make less sense.

What I mean is that there are too many players in this game for me to focus on a detailed analysis for every player so I pick out the ones that I feel are the most wolfish and I deep dive into my theories to see if they pan out (see Bikes). There are quite a few players who I have no clue on at this point including yourself, keith, jv, jyms, gizmo and aubrey to name a few so I would either have to rely on and believe or discredit others theories when deciding to lynch them.

Daven is a good example of this. Based on how hard Ong went after him day 1 I just couldn't see him flipping Fed, but there were so many other people who played the "Ong would do just this as a wolf" theory that I felt compelled to go along.

It is also evident that you are somewhat in the same boat because you said yourself that you really don't have a clue about Bikes.

IF you feel that strongly about jv it may be worthwhile to review his posts, but as the game goes along I will feel less and less compelled to go along with the "I think so and so should be playing this way and they aren't so they must be baddie" wagons.

On another note, I feel as strongly about Bikes as you seemingly do about jv yet you seem to just dismiss him. It's almost as if you are subtly trying to turn the village away from a Bikes lynch and that makes me suspicious of you because I could see myself doing that if I were a wolf and although we have never been wolves together I get the feeling our style's of play would be similar.

#889

I certainly do.

#895

Can I get a WOOT WOOT!!!!

I should also point out that circumstances helped me stay alive the last two games and I was able to help the village win. Let's hope that happens again this game!!!

#899

I will take that because I will have felt like I really helped the village win. Besides if they do that they will be leaving one more confirmed villager alive, which also helps the village.

#913

Yeah, but what's also interesting is that Bikes isn't here defending himself at all. I would think even a villager would throw out the standard "meh, I am just a villager guys" post, but nothing.

#914

Ohhhh, is that why he isn't posting now? I thought that was an explanation for earlier in the game.

#916

Ohhhh, is that why he isn't posting now? I thought that was an explanation for earlier in the game.

#918

Yeah, I just went back and read it. I'm still not convinced that makes him officially town but I guess we should wait for him to get back so rescind bikes for now.

#923

If he doesn't care about the game why put enough effort in to get a message to us through Dozer unless he is a Fed and is just trying to buy time until he can get back?

#939

Since we are not lynching Bikes today I need to re-read the initial posts from today as I vaguely remember wolfish stuff from rilla and Jyms.

#940

Rilla, you must be at a MUCH higher level of thinking than I am because I have no clue how the posts you quoted got Hoopy killed. Hell, I am still struggling to figure out why the wolves didn't kill off a confirmed villager last night as confirmed villagers are so terribly bad for wolves.

#944

Well, the first one didn't pan out. When I first read the following from rilla I thought it might have been a pre-made wolf post assuming the Gabe lookup had been blocked, while Wuf had just posted that he did get a Gabe lookup.

Then I noticed it was probably a timing issue as wuf's post was just 15 minutes before this one and was actually pretty easy to miss the first time around.

#946

Ahhhh, I see it now. If they picked out Hoopy based on this (or even a couple of posts) then there must be a damn good "specials" finder on the wolf team. The only people I consider in this area are Gabe (confirmed villager), jv, Jyms and yourself. Because you pointed it out I will put you in villager status for now. Jyms has looked wolfish to me already so I am going to review his and jv's posts to see if I can pick anything up.

#951

This was the first post that I found suspicious. I have noticed that the wolves sometimes like telling the village what they want the village to think the wolves strategy was. Kinda like a misdirection play. If that was the case why wouldn't the wolves just nom JKDS?

Also, his last sentence just reeks of "yeah, bitches we found the seer" bragging to me.

#955

This one also struck me as weird because it seems like something they may have discussed in the wolfden. People also pickup on games when players don't go after other players they normally go after. They may have realized this could happen and decided to sort of go after each other early to dispel the conversation. IIRC they didn't hit each other that hard at all.

#957

I'm off to look at jv's posts now.

#960

Ong's bandwagon was taking off here when he posted this. Ong added on to it just 6 minutes later so this could have been staged.

#963

Jumps to Bikes without much reasoning.

#964

This must be one of those posts you were talking about (He is talking about Daven here) where he is just on the fringe of a commitment.

#968

This also looks suspicious imo. He had just jumped off of the Bikes BW and voted for Keith, but now is undecided on which wagon he is jumping on?

#970

Seems to be an easy "out" to target. Maybe too easy?

#972

This is the most damning so far. I will rarely believe that wuf's outing there was the right thing to do yet jv is good with it? That doesn't sound like him. He also says the wolf team is collapsing but we have only found one of four so far so I am not sure where he would get this vibe.

#974

I get kinda the same vibe out of this post that I did with Jyms post.

#977

Holy shit, the spotlight just came on. JV has made it a point in the past few games to say he has a "tell" on me so at this point it should have been very simple to call me a villager or fed based on his tell, yet here he sits on the fence.

#978

Third time he has jumped on a bikes bandwagon, but it has always been at the expense of other's thoughts. If JV is fed Bikes is clearly villager.

#980

Done with the review and there is enough there for me to go with a lynch jv.

If he flips villager I might have to take a pretty hard look at rilla though.

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 4 -------

#1070

so I guess JKDS threw a little trickery in there? Nice move dude!!!

#1073

Do you seriously think I am a Fed after yesterday's events? Wow.

#1083

With JV flipping Fed he goes way up on the villager scale. But I want to look at the dynamic again to see if I can see anything there.

#1093

I would love to hear your thoughts on why you think I am a wolf after yesterday's events.

#1094

I would love to hear your thoughts on why you think I am a wolf after yesterday's events.

#1096

you said...

#1097

why don't you think Keith or Gizmo belong in that list?

#1100

My top suspects are Jyms, Aubrey Savvy and mmm, but outside of confirmed I haven't ruled out anybody although I you are a wolf I would be extremely surprised.

#1174

Daven should get the bullet and it should be obvious why he should.

#1190

Because Daven is the only one who is 100% villager. Everyone else is only 99% villager.

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 5 -------

#1238

Exactly!!

Then he posts this...



Then he turns around and throws in the third lynch for Aubrey with the guise "to start some heat"?

Jyms, why don't you think Aubrey already had heat from the first two votes? This smells like you wanting to be in the middle of the voting so you can't be accused of a quick lynch.

#1239

Because he was a Fed trying to stay on the fence. Rilla first noticed it and I saw the same thing when I did my analysis of him.

#1249

Here is what I see so far, there just has to be a wolf among Jyms, Aubrey and savy, but I don't think there are two in that group. If my theory is correct that means the last wolf is one of myself, Rilla, Keith, and bikes (unless there has been a fake out somewhere along the way which is highly unlikely). Since I know I am a villager that means one of Rilla, Keith or Bikes is the last wolf and all three of them look pretty villagery.

This has me concerned tbh because I think we are headed to those three being alive on the last day.

I REALLY hope my theory is wrong here.

#1250

As for today my top two choices are Aubrey and Jyms with savy a distant third.

#1253

Lunch me now or lynch me later. Doesn't matter to me. I'm just telling it like it is.

#1254

Also, do you really think I would make this play NOW?

#1255

And the saving grace could be JKDS. If he manages one more save this game gets WAY easier.

#1257

whatever rilla.

#1276

Well,
Like I said Aubrey is at the top of my list and since she has turned away from Jyms and pointed her little nails at me then I will go with a lynch aubrey.

There may actually be some merit to wuf's argument in this case.

#1299

I would really like to hear the explanation of how last nights events mean I can't be the pussy killer.

Sounds to me like someone is fishing to find out who the pussy killer is.

#1300

For shit's sake people. I think we all agree (with the exception of Aubrey) that Aubrey is a wolf so let's lynch her and when we see she is a wolf it will probably be 100 times easier to find the last one. Easy game.

#1322

You're assuming pussy killer and the shooter followed this model.

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 6 -------

#1354

Agreed and I am not sure how it got away yesterday but today should be a [b]lynch Aubrey[b] day

#1361

Because Jyms has been fairly consistent with his thinking while Aubrey has been all over the place.

And above should have read lynch Aubrey

#1362

Ummm, Aubrey is on his list.

#1364

@keith, I also meant to say I simply said you made an sumptuous that everyone was going to do exactly as you had pointed out and that MAY not have happened. I also am not sure where you get that I "fought for my life". Again, if you want to lunch means get me out of the way then go ahead as long as it helps the village win.

#1366

But he has been all over the place with a shit ton of evidence. She just seems to be more random finger pointing to me.

#1369

But he has been all over the place with a shit ton of evidence. She just seems to be more random finger pointing to me.

#1371

Savy is the only me there with any true analysis. Her take on me and Jyms are both VERY general in nature and the fact that you, of all people, don't see this is tbh fairly concerning.

#1377

Then you haven't looked at my posts either. There have been SEVERAL people who I have gone after pretty hard this game.

#1386

Help yourself out buddy.

#1396

But you don't want to do either one of these. Instead you sit there and do what you rail on others about. You let them do the heavy lifting while you throw out generalities about their playing style.

As for no reason not to lynch me, I can think of a pretty good one. I am a villager.

#1414

my eye is on the ball rilla. Yesterday I listed them as aubrey>Jyms>savy and I still think that way. I'm not sure why that makes me a wolf, but whatever.

I am at dinner with a vendor (who is laughing because I keep wanting to check in on this "silly internet game") so I don't have time for a deep analysis, but will have to before the day is over since I think there is only 1 wolf between Aubrey/Jyms which means the other wolf is pretty well hidden.

You sir are heading toward the top of that list though imo. I also want to take a hard look at Keith and another at Bikes although if I had to rank you three now it would be rilla>keith>bikes.

#1439

I wasn't planning on moving from Aubrey so I am ok with that. It also explains why you seemed so wolfish this entire game.

#1440

On the other hand could this be a fake out knowing they need to target the PK for a night kill before he gets another bullet? If, for some reason, Jyms isn't the real PK then that person should naturally NOT out.

#1442

Yeah, I do think you are the true PK, but felt like I had to point that out just in case.

#1443

Actually this outing has one pretty big negative effect. If we lynch Aubrey and shoot me tonight you are going to see that we are, hopefully, down one Fed (Aubrey, ldo) and one villager (me,ldo). If it goes villager/villager then village is in pretty bad shape imo so let's assume it doesn't.

Feds will take out Jyms tonight leaving JKDS and Wuf as confirmed.

Tomorrow flip a coin between Rilla, Keith and Bikes. If we wif on a Fed then the remaining Fed probably noms Wuf (assuming JKDS protects himself). This leaves JKDS to figure out the remaining Fed between the two remaining players. Not fun for JKDS.

JKDS/Wuf/Jyms, with that said I will take a pass at my thoughts on those remaining three if you want me to as it may help if it gets that far. I won't be able to do it until later this evening but will get it out before day ends. The only reason I wouldn't is if you would rather have your own analysis to lean on (which tbh I usually prefer to do) instead of someone else's thoughts that could be way off base. Just let me know.

#1451

Actually if Jyms isn't the Vig maybe the Vig should out and here is why. Let's say Rilla outs as Vig. We setup tonight for Wuf to Shoot Jyms and JKDS to shoot Rilla. Problem solved.

Btw, that is exactly why I think Jyms is for real because the two remaining Feds have to be pretty good and most likely would have come up with the same conclusion.

#1454

See my post above this one where I do an about face after thinking it through.

#1460

Actually Keith, wolf Gator wouldn't make that mistake. Nice catch as it didn't hit me that real PK wouldn't have to out to make the plan work.

#1461

Another reason why Jums outing as PK makes sense. If Vig shoots tonight and misses we are down to 5 tomorrow. That means the next time a bullet is available there would be 3 players left. Who takes a hot then? Nobody. Villager Keith should know this.

#1484

Seriously rilla? What happened to "I don't know what I will do if Jyms isn't a Fed"?.

You are soooo the second Fed that it isn't funny.

#1485

This.

Good luck village.

PS - Please shoot Aubrey tonight.

#1486

Ummmm, Jyms can't give Jyms the bullet. Fed not paying attention?

#1487

Can someone put some suspicions out there that I can agree with?

I've had enough of this crap. rescind Aubrey, lynch rilla

#1488

Hey wolf buddy, let's wrap up this Gator lynch.

#1499

wuf, although I agree with you about rilla, you are wrong about Jyms. Jyms outing as Vig doesn't help anyone else today and he would die tonight for sure if he is fake. It's not like he is trying to take heat away from someone else. The only way that makes sense is if he and I were both Feds and he thought I would be better at end game, but that doesn't fly because taking the heat off of him put it squarely on me.

And I can't imagine he would commit Fed suicide if he and Aubrey were both Feds. He would let her do that imo.

#1500

He has had plenty of pressure from Aubrey.

#1501

Nahhh, I know I am dead today. I'm just helping lead the village to the final wolf in case they don't believe just wuf.

#1503

yep.

#1507

(cough cough) rilla (cough cough)

#1517

yes they will. I am halfway through reviewing Keith and will post those thoughts within the next hour or so. Then it will be off to Bikes. I will take a deeper look at you after that just to see if I should change my mind.

#1524

OK. I am going to start posting my thoughts on Keith. Instead of one long post I am going to break them down so if anyone wants to reference a single part it will be easier.

Post #81 on Day 1, page 2. I am not sure a Fed would mention a fellow Fed here but he can't ignore it either so neutral.

#1525

Quote #287 on page 6. Sorta defends Ong again and explains why he hasn't posted. Not much here unless they had an early strategy to not post much, which could also apply to Bikes. Overall feeling – meh.

#1526

btw the above post was just hours before the day closed out. Coincidence?

#1527

Q 354 on page 8 (day 2)

This is where it starts to get interesting. Whenever I see posts like this I wonder if someone is special hunting.

#1528

Q 359 on page 8. Very fluffy imo and looks like he is just looking at wuf instead of everybody. More wolfish than villagery imo.

#1529

his next few posts were defending himself and then going after Jyms. Nothing noteworthy and looks a tad more villagery than wolfish.

Q 416 on page 9. Looks like he is buddying up to rilla here. Not sure why.

#1530

Q 499 on page 10.

This one is very interesting. Take a look at the piece I extracted. Was this a wolf slipup on what they were planning to do that night.

[COLOR="rgb(255, 140, 0)"]Now its obvious for wuf or JKDS to take out wuf tonight[/COLOR]

#1531

not sure why the font didn't change color, but whatever.

#1532

Q 524 on page 11

As a wolf I usually love pointing out irrelevant stuff like this.

#1533

Q 586 on page 11 - Pretty villagery unless the intent was to flood the village with info that can be construed multiple ways.

#1534

Q 593 on page 11 (He quoted multiple things so go to the quote for full context).

Had they figured out hoopy was a special

#1535

#599 on page 11

Trying to get info so the wolves know what to do at night?

#1536

Above 2 posts are on page 12, not 11.

#1537

#627 on page 13. This is an example of why the vote count could be helpful as a wolf since the numbers can be looked at multiple ways.

#1538

# 636 on page 13

Villager credit



Side note: I pointed out the same thing.

#1539

Spent the next few posts discussing lookup and vig actions. Villager points.

#1541

He spent the first few posts on day 3 defending himself against rilla then posted the following:

Q 762 on page 16

TBH this screams like a "hey look how villagery I look kinda post" Almost as if he was purposefully doing the prior stuff just so he could point it out.

#1542

Q 778 on page 16 (another one with multiple quotes so check it out yourselves) has keith defending himself against rilla again then throws out a vote for rilla. Could just be a frustrating villager vote or a Fed going on the offensive.

#1543

Q 828 on page 17. I don't have the entire quote here (it is long and again contains quotes in it) but I put in the below because a couple of things in it stood out to me.

First the "I am going to put myself up for lynch" strategy. I successfully used that as a villager last game and was wondering when a wolf would use it to defer heat. Not sure if that is happening here but thought I would mention it.

Secondly, and more damning imo is the "don't lynch me before I get a chance to post" as this makes him look like he is hinting that he could be a special here.

#1544

Btw, I was also reviewing JV's and Ong's posts and through page 17 I don't believe JV or Ong ever mentioned Keith once. I found that interesting.

#1545

Q 865 on page 18 also offers up as a lynch as long as rilla goes next. Indifferent on this one, but it leans villagery.

#1546

#883 on page 18

Offers up again to be lynched but counters with "I should be a lock villager just by offering".

#1547

Q 1031 on page 21.

this one I find VERY interesting and although it is long will re-post it here. I put in the quotes that he used and hopefully this isn't too hard to read.

What I find VERY Interesting about this is that 1) he goes after Aubrey pretty hard and although she had gotten heat from others at the same time he went pretty hard (separation strategy?)

2) is this part - "Gator then seemed to be the one that restarted the JV wagon and posted quite a long accusatory post against him. maybe this is the time that the wolves decided to throw JV under the wagon and gain some villager credit and rilla came in and helped develop the evidence against JV. I'd shown how they were screwed mathematically and the wolves desperately needed some village cover. Its much easier to target a fellow wolf as you know the reasons for their posts already."

JV hadn't been lynched at this point so there was no way to know if he was a villager or Fed yet Keith is talking like he knows how it will turn out.

#1548

That takes me through Day 3 and I have the following thoughts. On the surface Keith seems pretty villagery but almost TOO villagery. Up to that last post I had him villager more often than not.

#1549

I am going to stop there because until the third Fed is found it is too difficult to read into posts.

Plus it is getting late here and I want to, at least, take a quick look at Bikes before I go to bed.

#1550

His first post after showing up late is this...



but then posts this as his very next post. His stance on Gabe is almost opposite.

#1551

Q 288 on page 6 again reverses stance on Gabe so he can jump on Eug's wagon late.

#1552

Q 352 on page 8

He doesn't want to seem absent and puts in the standard congratulatory post.

#1553

Q 387 on page 8.

Shortly after this post JV bolded Bikes. Maybe they decided early to go after each other to minimize the potential lookups?

#1554

Q 429 on page 9

At this point there was heat on several people including Gabe and now he wants him dead? He can't seem to make up his mind on how he feels about Gabe.

Btw, this would be an easy ploy to pull off and look villagery because the wolves know that they can just re-kill Gabe.

#1555

Q 432 on page 9. This is just horrible advice because an absent pascal can't shoot.

#1558

Q 552 on page 12

JV actually mentions the strategy so he can discredit it. JKDS had asked him who he thought the other wolves were.

#1559

Q 604 on page 13

No mention of JV even though JV had bolded him (iirc) and Aubrey is all the way at the bottom of the list.

#1560

and again wants vig to give pascal the bullet

#1561

I will have to do the rest tomorrow, but right now Bikes looks more Fed than villager.

#1568

You call me a wolf because you say I am not putting in the effort yet your post here CLEARLY shows that you are doing just that.

"I had a thought on her, but it serves no ends sharing it now." If you were a villager you would share everything you have to help the village.

"And I've put out my reads on aubrey, but I caution that I haven't gone through and really figured them out." - Really rilla?

#1572

Do you REALLY honk Jyms ever comes back Fed here?

#1573

Honk = think above.

Damn iphone

#1576

I was just looking at your posts because I didn't have time for a deep read on the flow of the game.

Btw, I didn't "conveniently" leave out anything. Imbjustvtrying to give the village info they can use after I die today. Seems like I am the only one doing this though which sucks.

#1580

If you try to change a color in this forum (which is what I did) you will see that string. And LOL at wolves changing colors in their forum. I don't think I have EVER done this.

#1584

It didn't for me. I tried it both in and out of the original quote (which is why I wanted to change the color in the first place, just to call out that section).

#1586

Btw Keith, you are wasting time by attacking me. I am dead today or tonight. I am just trying to ensure we don't lose three villagers today/tonight.

#1588

Talking about misleading. Did you not read my final thought where I stated that with the exception of the final post I had you firmly as a villager? Sheesh Keith, try helping the village for once.

#1590

here you go.

#1596

my guess is he bolded me because of this.

#1597

btw, I am working on the rest of the bikes analysis so look for more posts.

#1598

There's errors, but it is in your logic. Did you not see my post on keith where I all but called him a villager? Also, I am still alive because the Feds have been killing confirmed since like night 2. Have you not noticed this?

#1603

Quotes on page 15 - Nothing of note here







The last one came in about 6 minutes after the 2nd one so he was either high level scanning posts (which is certainly possible) or was reminded that Ong had gone after jyms.

#1606

Q 773 on page 16

Looks more villagery than not. The only wolf tell would be that JV is in the middle of the list of three but that is slim at best.

#1609

here is when JV gets on Bikes. At this point Bikes already had (I think) 3 votes on him.

Q 838 on page 17



followed pretty quickly by Q 839

Note: I took out the bold for Rong

#1610

LOL - That would scare me too tbh.

PS - Love ya wuf!!

#1611

LOL - That would scare me too tbh.

PS - Love ya wuf!!

#1612

It was at this time that Bikes went silent again and sent a message through Dozer about his internet problems.

I don't doubt that he had internet problems, just find it weird that a regular villager would go through that much effort to let everyone know they can't post. Maybe he just loves him some ww but then again he completely forgot about the beginning of the game.

I honestly don't know what to think about this.

#1613

that takes me through JV's death as well and I haven't changed my opinion that Bikes is a Fed WAAAAY more often than Keith here.

#1619

It's too close for my comfort and I haven't done my own review of Rilla so I will rescind Rilla, lynch bikes

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 7 -------

#1626

3 down 1 to go. Guess it is time to do a deep dive on Aubrey, but first thought based on review of Keith is it has to be Rilla.

#1629

Where is everybody?

#1634

Not sure why you keep asking that Keith.

#1640

why do you think it is keith? As I stated when I did my review other than him possibly looking TOO villagery I had a hard time putting him in the Fed category.

#1655

Rilla, how then do you explain last nights actions? If Jyms isn't the real vig then the real vig just risked getting shot. Imo this only makes sense if Keith is the real vig and I can't imagine Keith not giving wuf the bullet and letting him shoot jyms.

#1662

I can honestly say I feel pretty stupid after reading rilla's latest post. And yes, I had to go look up Bayes Theorem.

#1668

I don't even know how to react to rilla's post about me.

#1676

Wuf,
Unless something dramatic has changed in Keith's posts from page 20 (I think that is where I stopped) I just don't see him as a wolf anywhere nearly as often as Rilla.

As for rilla's statement about me not doing analysis on Aubrey that is pretty simple. When she spazzed out at the end of JV's lynch and the beginning of the next day it was very apparent that she was a Fed. Imo, the same is true right now with rilla, but not because of any huge mistakes on his part, but because keith looks way more villagery to me than rilla.

With that said, Keith's posts yesterday seem odd in that he spent a great deal of time defending himself while also saying "I am ok with a self lynch", but that looks more like villager trying to help than wolf desperation.

#1678

LOL - He actually hasn't been that bad this game.

#1680

That happens to me sometimes and I wonder if it is because I started the review with a wolfy or villager vibe. Sometimes I have to look at things a couple of times (I did that with Daven when he was a wolf).

#1685

What I don't see is Keith being a Fed as I have already done an extensive review of him, therefore by default that makes you a Fed. I could do a review of you to confirm this, but today is my birthday and I have better things to do than ww. If things settle down later tonight or first thing tomorrow then I will, but I doubt it will change my mind.

#1689

That was one hell of an analysis wuf. As I mentioned today is my birthday and I have peeps over doing dinner and drinks. If this ends early enough I will take another look at Keith, but not just looking at his posts but at the entire context. It probably won't happen until later this evening or first thing tomorrow though.

Do we have any idea of how much time is left?

#1690

24?

HAHAHAHAHA

I am a spry 51 today.

#1693

crap. actually that is not a lot of time considering a majority of it will be overnight for me. Everybody is going to be here is about 15-20 min so I will try to look things over till then.

#1695

I am only on the 2nd page, but found something interesting.

When rilla makes the following post Ong already had 2 votes against him:



less than a half hour later JV makes this post....



....followed quickly by Ong quoting jv's post with the following:

#1696

Shortly after that there is this exchange:



followed by ong quoting rilla and saying:


rilla then follows with:


I dunno, but this seems like an awful lot of banter between two Feds on day 1.

#1697

ongs reply to the above was this, btw.

#1698

followed by this.



Btw, sorry for the choppy posting, but I am trying to get through some of this before everybody gets here.

Again though - would two Feds interact with each other this much on Day 1?

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 1 -------

#45

This is where I make my first post.

#68

I'm thinking 'lol' is wolf code for something.

lynch OngBonga

#71

Jyms and Gator are the only ones who seem to be trying to make it difficult for wolves to post.

Ong and crew shooting the many shits gets participation up, which should be good, but it's easy participation and so doesn't even being to establish any pressure on the wolves.

Best result for day 1 would be bingoing a wolf, but a successful day will definitely require the caliber of discussion to be up 3 or 4 notches and some discussion on how the village needs to begin to move forward.

#72

I'll also take a quick stab at a shadow in the dark and say JKDS looks bad for his post. Not for the target, but for the author. JKDS is the one who planted the seed of the village getting it together on day 1 in my head.

#89

Where did I reprimand anyone, JKDS? It seems to me that my first comment noticing the frequent use of lol and my later comment that the village needs to start to focus may be linked. But what do I know as simply the author? You and Ong are probably right that I genuinely thought lol was a literal wolf-gangsign.

#91

EDIT BAD

#94

I'm hunting wolves, ong. And the first step to that is to get others to hunt with me. What are you doing?

#129

Neither of these two things, JKDS. It was a comment on the caliber of discussion in the thread which I later built upon.

Luco - day 1 is usually a hot mess, but that's because we've always embraced it as destined to be a hot mess.

#130

My tendency would be to help defend jyms in a spot like this since it's easy for people to make the mistake of having their suspicion color a lot of things wolfy when they shouldn't be colored at all. His omitting some inactives, for instance, doesn't seem like anything but a hasty mistake.



This then the hasty post where he says he's not going to defend and throws the first pile of names he can pull from memory is raising alarm bells for me. Jyms, what about being a villager makes you uncomfortable?

#133

How can you put pressure on someone who hasn't shown up yet?

#239

Not yet caught up to the thread's end. Some things I want to get out there.

rescind ong lynch jyms

I do not like jyms nervousness (tripping over the total number of players math) and that after I asked how can you put pressure on someone who hasn't shown up, he drops a vote on an absent player to put pressure on them.

Maybe I should have been more straight forward: You can't put pressure on an absent player. You're lynching them tactically because they're absent.

To not be aware of this, plus all of the other oddities on jyms' resume, tells me that he's not wrapping his head around the game in a manner I would expect of a villager.

Hoopy asked about wuf-on-daven violence, I'd like to point out a few things.

One: wuf's case is nothing but optics. I don't have a better way to say that it doesn't seem to be 'on' to anything.

Two: Daven explained his suspicion of ong which matched mine, and his explanation sounds contradictory on one read through but actually threads a needle rather capably.

In 102 he says "my reasoning for thinking you are dodgy isn't that you want to target ong and jyms, it's cos you think that ong spraying votes around is evidence of him being wolf when it's just evidence of ong gonna ong" and in 106 he seems to smack that right in the face by saying of ong "his spray this time feels different, i expected him to come up with ridiculous theories and he hasn't done"

At first this sounded like trying to show the same side of a coin to me, but I think it actually a very crisscrossed presentation of a coherent position. Ong is playing by standard form, but he's not doing it the right way - this is suspicious.

#244

I can imagine in a parallel universe, OB claiming "First day is random noise. My spray is random noise."

It isn't compulsory that you make random noise on the first page, or the first day, you chose to and its a reflection of you as a player in the game and an entirely valid point by daven.



I have to wonder about what you think this lynch is accomplishing. Because these votes seem to be in the exact opposite direction of what JKDS very capably explained earlier in day 1. These votes for inactives are creating a very wide open day 1 for the wolves.

#245

I do not like this wagon management from a villager either. Why are you trying manipulate votes onto other wagons when you could just be wolf hunting.



You're not helping the village, you're only helping yourself.

I'm going to stop focusing on jyms for now, or else I just start finding every reason to lock down on him.

#249

Before I head out, I think the very opposite.

#178 by NG - I'm very much used to you thinking for yourself.

#289

eugmac came in here like a god damn whirlwind and punched out just as quickly. I was seriously gone to the gym for 1 hour.

rescind jyms lynch eugmac

I was intending to switch to aubrey. For one, I don't think jyms is a pressing target and the last few posts he's made in response to me tell me he's only going to be easier to read as the game goes on. And earlier JKDS mentioned fencesitter, and aubrey's posts from the second page on really strike me as just that. I was going to pull my case together but gabe's case (which is unlike wufs which I described as "optic") and eugmac's whirlwind - disconnected - I'm outta here response is just incredible.

#292

And this was a comment about aubrey.

But I'd like to just point out - I think he's saying 1: A wolf would focus on me [as I can be worked]. or 2: A wolf would not focus on me [as I am no threat]. Which makes me feel like his last flurry of posts were very panicked/rushed/sloppy or some word that blends all three.

#299

NG - re inactives - if you spend all day discussing what to do about inactives, you're doing it to the benefit of the wolves. You should instead spend the majority of the day wolf hunting, and towards then end, lay out your reasons for having the inactive option after everyone's done some wolf hunting. If the village moves to lynch an inactive, for whatever reason, it's better than this back and forth about how technically or tactically justified lynching them can be. I just remember games where we'd spend entire day 2s trying to figure out if we should lynch an inactive to our great detriment.

#301

I addressed this already. In a post prior. I believe it's actually evidence that he's a villager. Something about appearing to show two faces of the same coin at first but recognizing he's giving a crisscrossed explanation of a coherent position.

#311

Yes, I have the superhuman ability to interpret what others say, and I'd like to believe I use it well. And I have the equally superhuman ability of reminding people that of my prior interpretations when they mention them anew.

#314

My previous quote should say "trying to show both sides of the same coin" as if to say he's seemingly contradicting himself.

#322

This isn't my soulread, mind you, Gator. It's gabe's. I'm not sure where eug's head was at when he seemed twist about before bugging out.

I tried earlier to pull together a post on aubrey and don't know how to do it best. Something about p(Wolf) = ((Calibrating Off Others Factor)*(# of ? marks) + (Fence-sitter's Factor)*(# of 'necessarily')^2) / Sum Balance of the Rest of My BS Reads

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 2 -------

#409

One thing. I really want to lynch jyms.

As for all of the interesting stuff, JKDSs claim of a one-shot power versus the description which dictates rules may have been a play towards the wolves. I'm not interested in puzzling it out, but I think it's clear he's not a wolf. Putting up a wolf on balance for the angel just isn't a good play.

#412

Man, this new forum is terrible for maneuvering through this thread. Jyms has the second most posts in this thread and he's done nothing but be timid, afraid of death, defending himself, taking the (frankly sound) approach of ignoring pressure and skipping defenses. Day 2, he's been floating around the conversation, being wishwashy and unengaged with the observations he's making, and his voice is wrong (I dunno how to say it, but he's too damn proper). He's showing every sign of "just don't die, please don't kill me, I just don't want to die." Yesterday I backed off because I thought it might be a sign that he's a special. I'd like to believe that I'm justified in pushing now on the thinking that any wolves actually special hunting would be keying off on the well documented position of jyms that "I just don't want to die until late" (even though I'm doing it because all of his posts today continue to ring alarm bells in my head).

lynch jyms

#415

"I should be posting a reaction, but I have nothing to say. Look at how things happened. I don't know about them, but oh wow.

I'll now advance a general, philosophical platitude in the same vein as I have done yesterday without tying it down to any concrete aspect of the game before us.

Oh, yes, I was in error. I see that now that my error is highlighted. I could have defended my initial thought but I didn't actually have one."

#417

It says to me that he's not thinking. He doesn't have any conception of the game to build off of or draw upon because the game for him is have a chat in this thread and fending off the heat.

#476

I disagree that wuf coming out is the best play, but it's immaterial now.

JKDS - I don't think you're appreciating just how overtly-wolfy jyms is in this game. I don't really find his stance on defenses to be that suspicious either. What I do find suspicious is that he has the second most posts in this thread (second behind ong) and across all of them you won't find one sentence that suggests he's engaged with and actively solving the game in front of us. This is the reddest of wolf flags in my eyes. Everyone consumes the thread differently regardless of role, but wolves don't have a mystery on their hands, they have a minefield. Jyms doesn't appear to be trying to solve anything beyond how not to take the wrong step.

#477

I don't think we should worry about losing the reviver power since the wolves are dealing with choosing the angel, the receiver or sifting through the field.

#480

But they know the angel and receiver - who is effectively part of the deadly seer combo. Why ignore those targets and instead go back into the field for the reviver?

#481

I doesn't serve any ends to discuss this. The reviver can't really make a mistake tonight, in my eyes.

#566

1:Lowest.

2:Would only prove if you could demonstrate it is impossible for Ong to have disappeared for any other reason.

#567

I suppose the wolf team would have good reason to use it night 1 to attempt to find the receiver by looking for shifts in opinion of the first look up. I just can't help but shake the feeling that some really poor analysis is going on.

#569

lynch jackvance

#570

I take this back. I started reading the thread backwards and just expected to see something that didn't materialize. Or not really take it back as say my emotional hunch at seeing the tale end of the thread was off.

#571

lynch daven

My jackvance lynch before was after seeing the post he threw together after JKDS pushed him for some reads.

About the count, I didn't actually verify the specific numbers, but it looks correct and I have no reason to suspect wuf of being deceitful - the daven case is incredibly solid.

#572

Also, GatorJH is in this game – PSA.

#574

I actually really like the case against gabe too.

Also, there are tiers of verifying his story. You can scroll around that area and trust the numbers wuf posted at the time, or you can peer-review his statements and count them yourself. I took the relatively easier road.

Anyway, I'm a little bit in love with wuf right now.

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 3-------

#710

The other wolves are Jyms and Jackvance.

#711

I had hoopy as one, though. When I saw the death post, I thought he read out as a dead wolf.

#714

I'm just going to fire from the hip, but I'm going to say that the last wolf is Keith.

#716

Gator
Wuf
Aubrey
JV
Imsavy
JKDS
Jyms
Bikes
Monkey
Keith
Luco
Gabe
The Rilla
NightGizmo
Daven

Subtracting myself.

Obv v: wuf, jkds, daven

Strong v: NG, Gator, Aubrey

I believe v: ImSavvy, Luco, MM

I'd put in v but it's really hard to defend: gabe, bikes.

Gabe is tough because he doesn't possess an 'honest' voice. Or really, the inverse of that. When he's being leading or deceitful, he's so palms-up, open arms, wide-eyed, exposed neck about it that you have nothing. It's both too easy to clamp down on him and, at the same time, you feel like you're biting down on air. With that said, his post attacking eug screams villager to me. I can't see it any other way. He's taking a clear and penetrating look at eugmac. He's not leading the conclusions, he's reading into the work, and he's doing what I'd expect him to do - push an early hint at weakness to expose a greater one.

My feeling on bikes I can put like this - bikes is a most useless dump. If nothings changed, I have no reason to expect him to change (believing that bingoing a wolf role changes you)

I think the other v reads are easier to make, and I'll get around to them if need be.

The cases against jyms and JV stand on their own though.

#717

How did they pick off Hoopy?

#718

I kind of skipped over this post. This gang/fed nomenclature doesn't register in my head the same way as wolf/villager. I thought you were pressing for an attack on gabe and I wanted to get my thoughts out about him.

#725

It even says (Feds blocked the seer).

#728

To what are you referring?

#730

I already know the answer. 1, thanks for the info that I finally got around to digesting. 2, clerical work is not villager work. Even wolves know they have to appear to be working in village interests and it takes no unique thought to pull numbers together. 3, talking about the design of the game is not getting into the game.

As in, none of those actions are proof positive of anything. You can do them regardless of role.

Now I'll admit I don't know your role. I was really expecting Hoopy to be a wolf. But going over all the stuff I picked out from the thread, I didn't find anything to support your being in my villager pile. That may have been from my not really paying attention to your posts, I dunno. But other than bikes, everyone else had something that said villager to me.

#734

lynch jyms

Because you can never quite move past your first.

#735

Just watch Reservoir Dogs and do as they do. It's easy.

#741

I'm not going to read jyms by way of ong. Wuf created a really compelling case against daven by way of ong. And we learned the lesson we usually learn. Your explanation is weighed against every quirky possible explanation, and that usually doesn't give you very good odds.

I'm going to read jyms for jyms. And jyms reads a wolf, time and time again.

#745

lol Keith.

#746

No, you're not, jyms. You know that.

#747

And this lol is saying I'm not going to engage tonight. I got to you saying my very valid point was rubbish and then that I was talking out of my ass and I'm just not going to get my blood up on a sunday evening.

There's plenty of time to lay out all of my bits and pieces.

#749

Keith, condense your thoughts please.

When you listen to conservative talk radio in my country, they have this tendency to chop up other peoples audio and constantly slide in their comments to color the listeners opinions. It's a tactic I detest. So please pull your thoughts together and present them in one go.

Why can a wolf not tally the votes?

Why can a wolf not analyze the roles and give villager-positive advice?

The answer is that they can. That's what I was saying. I do not consider these to be bits of evidence in support of your being a villager. I hunt for other info that I've found to be more telling.

You're right on the reviver bit and my not having read your posts (which I admitted and which was why I was asking you to point me to what you were specifically talking about because this thread isn't the easiest thing to navigate).

#754

After being an hour late, I was going to send our fair mod a pm talking about how I was going to laugh as a pack of hyena's raped the corpses of his closest loved ones.

For you and yours, I'm thinking elephants.

#757

Thoughts on Keith?

#765

It was friday and that was my mood. And you might want to read back on why I threw Keith's name out there.

#767

I don't personally consider any of this evidence that you're a villager because a wolf could do it to bank villager points. For instance, a wolf would recognize that the advice for a reviver to out was eventually going to hit the thread (likely when the reviver outs) and could consider it a valuable for their own cover to get it in there themselves.

#774

On - ignoring ong.

Once ong comes out as a wolf, that's in the bag. I don't tend to use info like that as a lever for finding other wolves. I don't effectively know how and feel like I have better success relying on other techniques. I've mentioned that even today before the pressure started building on me. I don't have a history of using wolves to find other wolves. I usually treat them as disconnected cases.

On - wuv wuf.

I said it at the time that I was expecting the sort of reasoning that didn't seem to materialize. I had sensed that wuf was going to make the mistake of filling an information vacuum with what he wanted to be there - essentially building a house on sand. But when I read his case on daven, I thought it was pretty slick. I was expecting to be back later that night before the deadline, but Friday night got away from me. Even if I had come back, daven had to go. Wuf's case was super solid. Ong was all over daven all day, and when the opportunity came to really press the knife into him, he lost all his bluster. That action demanded an explanation and I allowed myself to be convinced by wuf that he was inside ong's head a bit. I did the same with his reasoning on their having used the action-peek to see wuf receive the good news. At the time, I felt that wuf was demonstrated a keen focus that would far out-strip mine and so I sceded my vote over to him. I was happy to see that he was seemingly cleverly out manuevering the wolves and putting in good work.

JKDS - wolves don't like to find new targets - I feel like I have a good history of finding new targets in this thread. I brought up aubrey out of no where to build pressure. I brought up Keith today.

Tomorrow I'll take some time to lay out my JV case for once and my Jyms case more clearly. I'll also try to highlight why I placed the other names where I did and leave you to take what you like.

#775

Remember that the wuf laying out the case is a villager, so that drops the defenses a bit.

#776

For clarity's sake.

#820

I'd like to make two general points. One is that you're the 3rd in my list. And two is that I'm not adamant about anything w.r.t our 'discussion' yesterday. You brought these points up and I gave my opinion.

I'd like to walk through my recall of the events. I came into the thread confident that the last three wolves were jyms > jv = hoopy. When I saw hoopy colorfully dead, I thought he died a wolf and so fired out my last two because "I knew it!" My confidence wasn't just that I had reason to believe they were wolves, but that I had reason to believe most others were villagers (or be suspicious that they're villagers).

When I realized hoopy was the seer and I have missed a wolf, I went back to my list and found that I hadn't found anything that made you a villager, you just never did anything suspicious. Basically I read the thread and came away without really noticing you. How the oversight occured, I dunno.

You then come at me and say "Of course I'm a villager, I have done these 3 villagery things. 1, count votes for wuf; 2, give strategy suggestions; 3, suggest the reviver out".

I return that these things can be easily done by a wolf. It takes no unique villager perspective to run through these tasks, and if you find them so proof-positive of your villagerdom, that should show how savvy a wolf would be to do them.

Then you jump an emotional octave, say I'm rubbish and talking out of my ass and what not. I try to clarify the conversation and now we're here. In my mind, I'm just now noticing you. In you're mind, I have waged a long and sustained campaign to tarnish what is a sterling villager record.

I just don't get what's going on in your head.

One general comment before work, if not jyms, JV is a wolf more frequently than bikes is in this spot. In my most humble of opinions.

#822

In this spot means from my perspective. I don't know about bikes and I've said as much already.

#868

I've got a handful of votes on me now. So, even playing straight villager the whole way through, I get the result you think I should be looking for.

The truth is, if the wolves eat me, they eat me. So be it. If I had a power, that'd be different but it's not. So I'll just roll out for the village and see what happens.

#869

Way super disagree, but whatever.

#872

The reason why I think JV is a wolf is pretty obvious. JV would have read my role by now in just about every game. He and I take similar approaches to reading people. I know that some of the stuff I've put out there this game I couldn't put out as a wolf and he would have noticed that. And that if I were a wolf, I'd have to put in a decent amount of work to keep him off my tail through 2 days.

It's hard to fully describe the weakness, but when I'm a villager, I'm thinking about the game clearly. There's just one game. The idea/model/view whatever is coherent and one which I have an easy recall of. I'm in the game. When I'm a wolf, I'm crafting my positions to fit into the game as it's evolving in other people's heads. I try to do things that 'sound villagery' and struggle to chart my actions forward. It's difficult to engage in the game because I'm not solving the game, I'm trying not to be solved.

I take this personal insight and extend it to others. Because, hey, why not? We're all human. I like to believe there are posts which villagers can make which wolves can not. And I like to look for signs of people making those posts, or even fragments of them.

So MMM in the post I quoted earlier where he talks about how the game is all shadows to him. That tells me he's thinking like a villager, his head is in the game.

That's basically my case against jyms, when I get around to finding a way to present it. His posts (before his one about lynching me) continuously show a failure for him to demonstrate that he's thinking inside of the game instead of striking right off the surface.

JV does it a lot too



This is striking off the surface to me. He's just noticing things and not digesting them.

He's done it elsewhere. To speak to how undigested he is on this thred, yesterday when JKDS pressed him for his reads, he struggled to put out a haphazard look-around at the village. That says wolf to me.

I can't say anything in defense of bikes, just the sort of thing I've said about the Bigred's of the past. If they were a villager, they'd be as useless as this. I just want to press more interesting avenues.

#876

1) Keith, if you have 3 guys (A, B, and C) and 3 hats (2 red and 1 blue) and you have reason to believe both A and B are wearing red hats, what color hat is likely on C's head?

That's the 'illogic' of my approach.

2) I never said this. I was adamant that what you offered up as proof of your villagerhood was not anything I consider as evidence that you're a villager. I didn't say that on top of that, it was evidence that you were trying to build villager cover but rather that by your own reasoning, wolves would be well placed to do as you have done. How is it so difficult to communicate with you, Keith?

3) on your pussy killer ideas that you want me to debunk - If your idea is good, great. I don't tend to think about the specials because I'm basically never a special. I'll let them to their own actions, trusting that they're paying attention to their lot in life enough for the both of us. But I'd like to highlight a weakness in your thinking, Keith, what if I'm not a wolf?

Under the assumption that I'm a wolf, you built an expectation on how I would move forward. Now you're goading me to meet your expectations. How is any of this a useful approach?

You're expecting everything to fit into your conclusion, which won't be hard to do in a game like this. You can take any of my actions w.r.t to you and fold them into a "and what would a wolf do" narrative (hint: "exactly what he's doing!")

4) on defending bikes - Saying my putting JV ahead of bikes as a target is defending bikes is like saying that every shade of grey is black because it's not white. As if to say, if I'm not bolding bikes, I'm protecting him. I can put up other targets on the merits of those other targets and not have it be a reflection on bikes.


I'm going to try to put you on the back burner today. I have better things to do than find what I would consider the 3rd wolf.

#879

Wuf, aubrey constantly utilizes the same sort of analysis tool. She looks at some aspect of the game and goes "If it's a yes, then this, but if it's a no, then..." Is this common in your experience with her or in her werewolf history (if she has one).

This post is an example. I can find more.

#880

Oh, there are plenty of reasons JV. That one, I thought, opened nicely.

#882

Let the day roll on please.

We have so much time and every reason to use it.

#917

Keith, I haven't put out any thoughts on it because I have no thoughts on it. I'm not going to squeeze myself through your hole for your pleasure. Neither am I going to give you thoughts that I don't have. And I'm trying to de-couple from you so I can figure out what the fuck our conversations are on about and I can't do that when every time you make a point, I can feel my blood pressure double because you're so obviously off the mark. Because yeah, I know that the wolves won't lynch me tonight, that wasn't what MMM was on about. He was questioning my play style all game. I couldn't know day 1 what day 3 was going to look like, so in his eyes my style is suspicious because it doesn't seem to make sense not to try to build some suspicion to keep the wolves from hunting you.

#924

I rolled into today with all the confidence in the world and rebuffed by every villager - got to take a moment to go through a lot of thoughts to rebuild my bluster. I haven't been able to control wagons. Bikes and I are the top two. To many observes, this seems like the last thing I'm driving for.

And 'my ususal self' is funny. I play villager this way every time.

Every

Time.

I'm not even wrong.

#928

Hoopy died for this post.

#929

lynch JV

#930

This is a post that rings off the surface of the game loudly to me. He can't commit to any aspect of anything he sees, so everything is calibrated 'down' and becomes a question.

#932

I just want to bump this up as my jyms 'control'.

#934

This happened right when I was prepping a big push for jyms, so it fell into my blind spot.

#936

GONNNNNNGGGGGGG

#937

JV opens the thread talking about previous game reads and continues to make reads in this game based on how he remembers himself thinking in old games. I see myself struggling to be a wolf in this post. Not a gong, though.

#938

Hoopy may have extra died for this post.

#941

These jyms posts rang out to me when I saw them on day 2. Though the post that fell in my blind spot does have a villager flavor to it. Still, some of my case on him can be witnessed here.

#942

Hoopy knew wuf was a villager.

#945

Parts of this post says that aubrey is a villager to me. Mostly that the jyms of this game exists as profile in her head. His attitude and how the game has moved around him are seen.

#947

Parts of it were rendered from scratchings I had made on saturday. I was really eager to get into the thread almost all Sunday. I wanted to just fire off all the wolf names and other great reads ASAP. As the game delayed into the afternoon and I started drinking, I tripped over myself a bit at the starting line.

#948

Ong is outed as a wolf, JV is talking about games that aren't this one.

#949

Daven is a villager for reasons that are not mine.

#950

"Ah yes, the reviver role. I suggest we do both things and neither of them simultaneously."

Also talking about players in terms of games that aren't this one.

#952

It was at this time on my read-through on Saturday that I was thinking to myself "Holy shit, I've got one. Along with Jyms, I can basically walk out all 3 wolves if I start shuffling people aggressively into camps."

#953

Luco is a villager, btw. He has a lot of posts, but why not throw it out there.

#954

a lot of 'good' posts.

#956

See, this [and the post a couple back] is jyms talking about surface stuff. The stuff right infront of the village, and about the wolf den. I don't want to do what I did before and just let this build into my jyms-conviction. But I find this to be a post that's showing his head isn't in the game.

#958

lol, but this is sort of during a period after his posts about just running through Ong. He's made like 5 posts about just nothing at all.

#959

He's talking about this game, yes, but it's just a list. I would have keyed off on this too.

#961

A beautiful play by JKDS to get JV to show just how little he's taken from the thread so far. I'm done with JV at this point.

#962

Sorry to everyone for what I have done to the thread, but rereading the thing is a chore so reading the reread needs to burden you all in equal measure.

#971

Keith seems alright, I guess. Plus per our discussion, other than being a roller coaster of fury and frustration, his thoughts seem to be his - whatever the hell that means.

#976

This is a gong.



But I dunno about ImSavvy.

#979

I think this is as best as you can ever expect from bikes.

#982

Shrug.

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 4 -------

#1068

v nice

#1069

I had this thought, for future games, the wolves should be given a full day before the start of the game to get together and prepare. I did this with a few games in the past and wanted to put it out there for future game designers.

#1090

The wolves are in: Jyms, ImSavvy, Gator, Aubrey, bikes, MMM, Keith, NG, me 100% of the time.

I'd say they're in: Jyms, ImSavvy, Gator, Aubrey ~90% of the time.

#1092

Ehhh, I'm gonna put MMM back in there.

#1095

Is that what I said?

#1098

I sure did.

#1099

I don't believe Keith or Gizmo add greatly to the likelyhood of that pool containing the wolves.

Who do you think the wolves are? Or, which pool of players do you think contains them?

#1108

It's obvious that ImSavy has to die eventually. He's new and therefore difficult to read, and his terse adversarial stance is his natural posture.

I'm also worried that no one but me wants to lynch Jyms and that some how we're going to circle around him til the end. Jyms also has to die eventually.

As for the pool of MMM, Aubrey, Gator, they're the ones that require some evaluation.

#1117

When did luco out as reviver? The first I heard of it was from Keith.

#1195

This shit is against the rules as they existed at one point. I don't know if the rule is still expressly written anywhere.

#1197

Why can't you do anything apart from defend yourself (allowing that you can't just throw accusations around for whatever reason)?

#1198

Why is MMM having such trouble getting into the day 4 fun?

#1200

I don't have fun as a wolf either.

lynch MMM

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 5 -------

#1228

A few things, I am at the beach with friends, so am drinking (low thinky thoughts) and will be out of it until late sunday.

I will throw out a few thoughts. Nothing to do with the night deaths of last night.

I do not think Aubrey is a wolf.

The reasons are a bit back and forth, but for many of the same reasons I didn't think MMM was and think ImSavy may be.

Yesterday, I just wanted him (MMM) to show up and take himself out of the group I had put him back into. And I wanted to leave open a bunch of easy wagons for the wolves to latch onto. While Jyms is still my premo target, Jyms, if villager, should be an easy wagon for the wolves to latch on to. I wanted to leave as many of these openings for them to go for.

Basically, my thoughts on the wolves are two fold. 1) they're going to have a tendency to 'stand aside' in the main thrust of the conversation. With so many confirmed villagers, and such a difficult road ahead, the conservative maneuver would be to try to stand to the side.

2) And this was a yesterday located point, the situation for them was dire. There was really no good path forward for them with so many confirmed villagers and so few things for them to do. Yesterday, we had them in a shit of a corner. At the same time, yesterday aubrey was lively and throwing back at every single comer. For her to be a wolf, she would need to possess a high 'constitution', since, from her perspective, she was seeing days (like 4) of sustained beating back of suspicion. That would take a person with a certain sort of appetite to fuel her posting yesterday.

Today, Jyms, ImSavy are my way ahead top targets. There is no way that Jyms should be OK with dying when we took a great position and flubbed it up overnight.

I'll try to keep up with this thread, but my blood alcohol level and general distance from computing devices will make it difficult.

#1233

Take your time, fellows.

#1234

Jyms, explain the first sentence as if I were a 5 year old.

#1256

Gator has never been a part of anything ITT. Always next-to, just-after, over-top-of and the rest.

lynch gator

I may not be able to post again before the deadline.

#1302

... #1228 is my case for why Aubrey should be behind the following must-die targets: Jyms, Gator, ImSavy.

#1303

Can someone get a vote count up or some sort? Thanks.

#1336

lynch ImSavy

#1337

Not savvy enough to spell it right, though.

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 6 -------

#1359

Why Aubrey over Jyms?

#1360

Finish one thought, Jyms. Just once. Don't just open them and let them float... don't just plant them and wait for someone else to water and help them grow... finish one thought, Jyms. Just once.

#1363

Why would you expect a villager to not be all over the place?

Wuf has been all over the place.

#1367

Wolves can not possibly kill aubrey.

If you killed me, it wouldn't help you. How would you answer the entire village saying "You know, Rilla was hard on Jyms. Maybe we should lynch Jyms."

Killing people who support you would serve your interests better, don't you think?

I'm torn on pressing for you harder or not since you're going to die. I'm just excited to see your role.

#1368

No evidence in here? Really looks like 3 bolded names followed by her off-the-cuff from-the-gut reads and what constitutes them. This reads like evidence to me.

And if it doesn't read like evidence, it reads pretty closely to how I see (and saw) the village.

#1370

And I only had to dig like 4 'No-content' Aubrey posts back to find that one. I bet if I kept going, I'd find more reason to see the order very clearly as this.

Jyms > Gator > Aubrey.

#1374

I don't even know what I would do with myself if he's not a Fed.

#1375

I agree with her take on both you and Jyms. The only time you were ever in the fore-front of this thread, I was out in front of you pushing for JV. You do nothing to catch anyone's attention. Ruffle no feathers, apply no pressure, bounce off of this and that without leaving a signature-Gator thought to be found.

#1378

Help me out.

#1379

Bikes, get your ass in this thread.

#1380

Though, I may agree with Aubrey's read on Gator because she got it from me.

#1389

Wuf, I could have gone with Jyms and made it 3v3 against Savy yesterday and wanted to but decided against it because we were never going to have more info on Savy, he was never going to be easier to read and he had to die. So I went with Savy.

After that post, I drove 10 hours home. I could have made it 3v3 under the belief that it would be more telling whatever happened, but I stepped back on the back of my not going to be able to see how the rest of the day plays out.

#1392

And wuf, there's no reason not to lynch Gator there. He's hard to read, his playstyle is commensurate with my description - he does nothing to raise his profile, he stays in the weeds - see this post for a perfect example



I bet if I dig back through the thread, I could come up with just the one target he ever almost went for, which was JV.

I also bet I could make a stronger case that I'm a villager than you can I'm a wolf.

And I wasn't following all of your stuff wuf, because I didn't think you were right on Aubrey and I knew we could get Jyms eventually.

#1393

Also, it's obvious that Jyms isn't a flight risk. He posts a lot ITT. Savy was the better choice from my perspective, imo.

#1397

How? If the game is going to walk out with the wolves killing our most villager villagers and us killing the most wolf wolf, Jyms is earmarked for death. How does moving him up one rung tip anything significantly in my favor?

JKDS still thinks Jyms is a villager. JKDS sees the game in a way I don't. I know what I see and what it means, I know that I've put it out there time and again. I can buy time on Jyms and get Savy, or get Jyms and then still struggle with a pool of hard to read targets including Gator, Savy (and no-show Bikes if somehow it comes to that (and possibly fleshing out all of my first read on aubrey is since I've never played with her before)).

(JKDS still thinks Jyms is a villager. <-- I'm second guessing this statement because his position might have changed, but it's what I believed as of Sunday morning)

#1398

Who said I'm not going to do either of those Gator? There's plenty of day left in the day.

#1399

Also, as of sunday, Luco who was doing some hard-work for the village begged us to lynch Savy. Making it 3-3 seemed like starting silly shit that I shouldn't be walking away from and lynching Savy seemed like the judicious choice for the village.

#1406

"Not to mention you're as hard to read as him and "hard to read" is not Rilla wolf-hunting strategy. "

I can almost not even believe what I am reading. This happens every time I'm a villager. Go find any game where I'm a villager and read it through (even though this is lame). Trust me. We've done this before. I've done it with Ong before.

"He's been as in the thick as you (you haven't been in as much as you claim)."

He's been as in the thick as you (you haven't been in as much as you claim).

Day 1, I went after Ong, JKDS, Jyms, NG (a little, really just wanted him off the inactives), aubrey (haphazardly), eugmac on the back of gabe, I defended daven against your attacks when I was asked to read them.

Over that same period, GatorJH went for Pascal, Bigred, Inactives, and the "Why is Gator still alive" observation that lingered in his future - he eventually lynches eug

Day 2, Gator opens with #380 on his reads from day 1 (not pressing, just reads), In 631 he lightly suggests the outcome of the daven lynch, lynches him in #670

I pressed on jyms (3 posts building a case), when JKDS got JV in a trap I pounced on it in #569, I eventually pivoted to your daven case.

"Not to mention Gator's case against JV was much stronger than yours."

I can almost not believe what I am reading. His case may have been more easily digested for you, but you better believe JV knew I had him and wouldn't let go.

#1410

Late Yesterday.



Early today.



Gator is look at a village that is going to lynch 3 targets, only Aubrey of which he thinks is good.

None of his posts today seem to be interested in how doomed the village must seem to him. Rather, he wants to keep his eye on the ball (Aubrey) and hands-off the heavy lifting.

#1412

Wuf, a lot of your stuff is about how I played yesterday. Remember from mid Thursday-Sunday, I was in DC and then at the beach with friends enjoying copious amounts of alcohol.

#1413

Alright wuf, you got me.

#1415

Take your time, my friend.

#1419

Aubrey, got any thoughts to share?

#1420

Remember the good times, wuf? REMEMBER!

I'd like to believe I rolled out that demoralization argument. Me with my beautiful brain.

#1423

You ever play as a wolf?

#1428

girrrrrl, you need to read the thread more carefully.

#1436

You mean take the lynch? If wuf and JKDS telegraph opposite targets, the vig can be assured of some safety.

#1463

Knew it. So obvious.

I have a hard time believing aubrey is a wolf. I have an easy time believing Gator is a wolf.

I have an awkward time believing bikes is a wolf. Keith worries me. He's kept up a hyper low profile after putting together a string of real solid posts that made the game more difficult for the wolves, but he only generates new information on the pussy-killer and that's about it. In my mind, none of Aubrey/Jyms/Gator had as much right to the claim as Keith and he was positioning himself as if to reveal himself as a confirmed villager.

At this point, I can pretty much lay it out there that I'm on Gator full stop. I'd campaign for him, but I don't think many people are in the mood to be swayed by me.

#1466

Give jyms the bullet. He seems trustworthy.

#1467

This man is so smooth. Your suspicions are but the suspicions of ants to him.

#1468

Keith, will you read bikes for me and tell me what's up?

#1472

Wuf said a lot of things. Like a lot. But we still have like 24 hrs, so stop lynching things.

#1475

jyms, you gotta find a wolf in rilla/keith/bikes before you go.

Really, everyone does. So have at it.

#1490

lol, the first line was sarcasm. Even later in the post I spoke about how I didn't think their was a credible vig claim among aubrey/jyms/gator.

#1491

Hahaha. Yeah, man.

If anyone's curious about Gator, he is in full on reach mode.

#1494

Yeah, a week ago I laid back on him late in the day, when the wolves didn't get him that night, I pressed on the next day.

Wuf, don't try to read my thoughts, they're a vacuum to you that you're filling with whatever justifies your hunch that I'm the last master wolf.

#1496

I like how I have so much activity, genuine thought, and activity in this thread that you can go back a week and find meaningful stuff that I've been putting out there. Try the same with Gator.

I also like that combing through all of my work, you can find maybe 20% of it as wolfy on a straightforward read-through. Instead of applying Occam's Razor and weighing it against the other 80%, you use that 20 to color the other 80 as level 2 plus wolf mastery.

One of the reasons I was able to step back from Jyms was because I know I do this myself. (I made a post about pulling back from him for fear tripping into reading everything he does as wolfy, a part of me still thinks he's being wolfy which is why I want him to hunt through the remaining pack). This is a lesson you have yet learned yourself, wuf.

I know there's nothing I can say to get you off my case, but trust that when the game is through, I have lined up some choice gifs to rub it in your face.

P.S. if you ever want to understand what level I'm on, go back and read the case I made against JV and Jyms. I burned some trusted-tried-and-true secrets trying to get the village to move in a more positive direction. (And that post I made about seeing myself as a struggling wolf in one of JVs posts. You just can't fake that shit.)

#1497

Look at day 1/2 me versus him. Day 3 I was out in front pushing JV, he was following in my wake trying to show up with some work. Look at the work he's putting in today - there is none. Look at how I'm still pressing everyone looking for the wolf, which if it aint aubrey, is someone.

In the wise words of my 4th grade math teacher, "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink." I can't make you see what you refuse to see, wuf.

#1502

So then you'll be laying out all of your reads on everyone, I assume.

#1508

Keith, why do you always have to shove words down my mouth. Read what I said again, read your interpretation. I never said a wolf could do this and that it doesn't make you a villager now.

Did I, Keith?

This is why you worry me. I don't know what you're doing at any point in this game, honestly. It doesn't mean anything about your role.

#1509

lol, whelp. I've made all of my thoughts through-out this thread. My last post is pretty much where I left off. I wish Jyms and Gator were the last wolves.

If it's just Gator, good luck sorting out Keith and Bikes. Bikes has a case on the back of how everyone has acted around him, which is why I described it as awkward.

If it's Aubrey, you played well. I never did fully flesh out my read, but at least I have some basis for placing your role and I've stated it previously for anyone who is curious.

#1510

And guys, 3 weeks ago, if we surveyed this forum - "Which of the following is the stronger villager, and which is the stronger wolf."

GatorJH
a500lbgorilla

How would that survey go?

#1513

Quote the paragraph of nonsense and I'll tell you where I was coming from. I'd like to believe I'm not that nonsensical.

#1514

Oh, I remember, when gabe pressed eug, I liked gabe's case because it had all the hallmarks of gabe getting a read and none of the hallmarks of what wuf had put out there, then when eug seemed to panic-flee, I had to hop on.

#1515

These won't show.

#1519

That second post had nothing to do with the first post?

Eug quoted a post I made about Aubrey (one where I bounced off his post to take a swipe at her), and Eug took it to reflect something about him.

I'm not gonna be able to stay on very much longer. I won't really be able to defend myself but for a brief window tomorrow morning.

I'll let you all to the discussion, as hopefully something comes of it.

I really thought I was putting in a pretty stronger villager effort all game. Shrug.

#1520

Also, it was day 1 and I'm allowed to be wrong about stuff.

#1522

Well, nothing I can do about that.

#1564

Because nothing is what it seems. It's not that Jyms finds me wolfy largely because I've been so relentlessly after him and anytime his feeling was able to bubble up with some public support, he put it out there. (I'm pretty sure he wagoned me on day 3 too.) No, it's not that because we don't live in Occam's world. Everything has to be master-strokes and brilliant-schemes.

#1565

Fancy Play Syndrome.

#1566

How have none of Aubrey/Bikes/Keith weighed in on my wagon?

This is astonishing to me. It's a late game day and this is an important time to be doing work for the village, even if that work is just voicing your perspective, since, as a villager, your perspective needs to dilute the wolves perspective.

Aubrey has been completely MIA. I had a thought on her, but it serves no ends sharing it now.

Keith and Bikes have both shown that they're in the thread. Keith continues to maintain that hyper-low profile I spoke of earlier. While all of the fireworks between me, wuf, Gator and eventually a little of JKDS, were going off, all he cares to talk about is how easily he can read between the lines of my posts. "Now, Rilla is saying that a villager is never named Keith and a wolf could be." Bikes has been the same zero he's been all game.

You 3 may well be the final 3 in this village, and none of you seem to be concerned by that.

If wuf gets the bullet tonight, I've got to believe Gator is the last wolf. I'm not going to spend much time on this, because it's a long-shot god-send if we still have a vig out there.

I can't believe JKDS would shoot anyone who isn't Gator tonight. Of the final 3, I can't pick out the wolf. My gut would point me towards Keith because seeing his role would be the most interesting thing to me, really. If bikes wins, who cares? Guy phoned it in hard, I'm willing to lose to that. And I've put out my reads on aubrey, but I caution that I haven't gone through and really figured them out.

lynch Gator

#1567

Oh, and to K/B/A, more reason to pipe up. If Jyms is the vig, Gator is a wolf, and wuf and JKDS are confirmed, the last wolf is going to watch my wagon go by without putting any identifying information out there. What an opportunity lost that would be.

[a500lbgorilla]

Day 7 -------

#1642

I completed 1/2 of a thread read-thru yesterday. I will get through as much as I can today. I will gestate this new and beautiful information and lay out everything I see.

#1652

OK.

Some prelim points.

After re-reading the entire thread. I still think jyms is a wolf.

I also lol'd at the line where he says "Why didn't the PK choose the rilla/jyms vig? I think this is VERY telling." Jyms, man... how is anyone going to figure anything out from that?

I'm gonna hit the gym. I'll drop some stuff in this thread when I get back.

#1656

I know he's the vig. Even knowing that, I'm always going to go after people who play like he did all game.

#1657

LOL @ you 3

I guess the lesson to learn here is don't be facetious in these games.

#1658

Also, wuf. It's important that if you think Keith is the wolf, that you also think Gator and I are villagers. Don't just say it, verify to yourself why you believe it. Then check these beliefs against Gator, I and Keith.

I think it's also important for both Jyms and Wuf to demand that both Keith, Gator and I identify ourselves somehow. You two are on the inside and we are on the out.

#1659

I'm going to open with myself since it's the easiest. I think that if you read me from after MMMs death on, I read pretty wolfy especially in light of Aubrey being a wolf. I also think that if you read me for the first 3 days, I read super villagery especially in light of bikes being a villager. Even ignoring the sort of work I was putting in on day 1 and 2, the moment JV hopped up on my radar, I was on him, I was pushing for him day 3 and I never stopped. When my wagon came up, I defended myself by attacking JV all while ignoring bikes. At the same time that I was being wagoned I was also pressing Keith and Jyms. This whole day, I just shine through as a villager, if I do say so myself.

The MMM death was not a good thing because it was early in the day and I was still preparing myself to work through the rest of the day which was going to end I believe right around the time that my trip to the beach started. It was this trip where my play kind of folded. I haven't been able to review the entire thread since the Saturday before last, so I ran off of 'spot reads'. Like my read on aubrey, about her vigor in the face of a long-shot chance. I figured wolves would assume a lower energy state and try to endure rather than throw back. When I came back from my Trip, I was under a sustained wuf attack and basically had to throw more stuff at the thread to try to show my villager hand but didn't have a lot of good information to add since I hadn't done the work to get that info.

In any case, read me yourself, and I'll be more than happy to share my thoughts.

My goal is not to get lynched. If I don't get lynched, I win. I'll let you try to decide what team wins with me.

#1661

Now let's move on to the opening volley on Keith and Gator.

Keith's posts largely fall into 3 classes.

RRR.
Bounce off.
In the wolf den.

Of these 3 types, Rules, Roles, Regulations (RRR) dominates. RRR is the sort of post where the content is about or revolving around some aspect of the rules, roles, and moderation. If Keith is posting, chances are good he's playing around with some aspect of the 'construct' of the game to the benefit of the village. These acts also happen to directly benefit Keith. He got several attay-boys for his work puzzling out the logistical best path forward for villagers which likely fueled his continued use of posting in this vein. I don't find anything about these posts particularly telling about his role, but for the fact that it dominates his work in this thread. When the vast majority of your profile by such a late hour revolves around data-crunching, it's not a good look. If you're having trouble posting, and you have relevant stuff to post that no one can question you on, that you can't trip up on, and that people find villagery, why try anything else?

A much smaller class of his posts are 'bounce off' posts where he quotes someone and bounces his idea off of what they say. My notes are just post numbers and small comments so I won't produce examples now, but I'll find them if you're curious. It's a class of posts that I find wolfy because they're a way to be a part of the conversation without starting any aspect of the conversation yourself. I believe wolves fundamentally have trouble finding ways to bring new information into the thread. They do things like Ong does bounce around, open with huge read-thrus that say nothing, or other things because they don't do what villagers naturally do. Find new things to talk about.

His last class of posts are where he puts people 'in the wolf den' or puzzles out the actions and attitudes of the wolves in their den. I don't necessarily think that this is a wolfy thing to do by anyone, but in this game, Keith has shown that in order to support the cases he seems to make organically, he has to talk about what the wolves are on about in the den.

One example: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...99#post2161499

He tries to use rong's compensation, the assumption that the wolves had foreknowledge, and my timing to put a wolf case on me. This is an approach to problem solving that is obviously flawed because it requires several rare events. It needs for me to be a wolf, for rong to have given us the heads up, and for me to then decide to craft that post. Anyone familiar with Bayes Theorem knows what foolishness this is and I can't really see it as an aspect of genuine thinking.

Anyways, that works for an opening volley.

Gator's post is going to take some time.

#1665

Gator is one hell of a nut to crack. Everything he does in this game has two readings, and I want to believe that half of them are built around a gut-suspicion because it's Gator alone.

Early in the game Gator maintained a low profile, he was busy at work and I can understand that. But at the same time, a low profile early in the game raises red flags for me. Early in the game I read him as a strong villager, when I read that on reread I couldn't actually recall why I thought that when I made the post. I think it was kind of a 'feel' of trust. But I now recognize it as a weakness with my ability to read him. On that, I can't make a profile of Gator. What I can do is separate my discomfort with Gator and read over his posts as honestly as I can.

I want to ignore day 3 at first, because it's too easy for me to misread what was going on in the thread. I can't help but just believe that JV knew I was dropping the hammer, and that belief colors how I see Gator acting. It even colors Gator's day 4 opener when he's looking for credit for the JV lynch. Wolves should always try to get credit for wolf kills.

Before that period, Gator was basically a no show. It's another aspect of my late game read on him, when I thought about the thread and the things I thought I knew, I knew nothing about Gator outside of my suspicions.

In any case, outside of the heavily redacted period of Day 3 into Day 4, I found a lot of reasons to like Gator weighed against very few reasons to think otherwise. When he did put up reads on people unprompted, they were very good.



It's a good post assuming he did what he claimed, read only ong and isn't parroting JKDS.



Generating new info on Jyms.



Super solid considering he was hot and bothered for Bikes.







Part of me wants to say, "He's using his wolf knowledge to be on the right-side of history. He did it with JV too!"

My best outstanding issues with Gator would be two fold: One, where he promised extra work and didn't deliver.



And the other is that later in the game he's all over Aubrey and I don't know that he ever lays out his case why.

In any case, on the balance of all my reading, I like a Keith lynch before a Gator lynch. There is a lot more villager work that has villager weight in Gator's history than in Keith's.

P.S. Consolidating my thoughts on Gator is fucking hard.

#1666

Are you just aroo-ing now? You could have saved me some strain in trying to make that Gator post.

#1667

In any case, I'm off to bed. Take your time, fellows.

#1674

Keith, if jyms and wuf agree on someone to lynch, that person is going to go. What does a gentlemen's agreement to go peacefully between you and I change or accomplish?

#1681

Keith, the appearance of my willingness to die is meaningless. If jyms and wuf agree to lynch me, I'm going to get lynched. I am already locked into the very set up that you have proposed; as are you; as is Gator. This is a trivially obvious point. The only thing your suggestion changes is whether or not either of us gets lynched under the narrative that we "die for the good of the village."

I live for the good of the village, Keith. It's a top responsibility of the common villager to not get lynched. I've said it in games past because it's right on the money.

#1682

And Keith, for your plan to make sense, you've got to know with a high confidence that both Gator is a villager and I am a wolf.

This should be a point that is pressed by jyms and wuf. As it seems unlikely jyms will ever move off of me today, and very likely that he doesn't need wuf to go with him, it's important for Keith and Gator to state why they believe I am a wolf and why they believe the other is a villager. They should go the extra mile to make themselves clear.

It's important that you don't allow them to do what Gator is doing. Being very casual, saying he just doesn't see it, and positioning himself out of the current field of focus between Keith and I.

They should have no problem giving you a little bit extra to comfort you in your decisions, as they're trying to wrap up the win with you and shouldn't want you to make the big mistake.

Ask for it today as insurance, if nothing else.

#1683

I'm unsatisfied with my Gator post yesterday and want to take another crack at it. So I'm going to read him over again.

#1692

Gator was doing villager work on day 1. I don't know how I missed that on my read-through last night.

I'm still going to finish the read through, but I bet I can finally drop this nagging sense that JV told him to throw him under the bus because I was going to roll over him. When you get the ghost of suspicion in you, it's really hard to beat back.

#1694

Yeah, this sentence is atrocious. It has been a long week. I was handling 4 people's jobs under a tight deadline and with high visibility with the suits.

I'll be back at it tomorrow.

#1706

There it is, Keith. It seems to me that simply proposing this scheme proves you're a villager. I like how the last time I pressed you as a wolf, it was your scheme on confirmed villagers announcing targets that proved you were a villager. You begged me to fight against an ironclad plan, a plan that could have been equally well crafted by a wolf or a villager, as all it took was an understanding of the PK mechanics and current state of the village.

It seems to me that these schemes consistently serve two purposes - help the village, help the Keith.

And on the very nature of these schemes, I'll leave you with this.

"Mathematical discoveries, like springtime violets in the woods, have their season which no human can hasten or retard."

It tends to be that when a solution is being sought after, it will be found independently at about the same time. These schemes that you're proposing were sought after, if you didn't propose them, eventually someone else would have.

#1707

[1][Which is why you so eagerly sought them. To be first and to have them tied to your name.]

#1709

I went looking for the last time he tried to throw his schemes at me in defense and I found when he tried to lay on his sword to protect the village. This was on JV hunting day with an orgy of better targets than Keith. The chances that the village agrees to go along with his plan is next to 0.

[1][P.S. Implying only a villager would do it. Which is why a wolf should do it.]

#1710

Oh, I'm getting there, Keith. I still want to clean up my understanding of Gator and his role first. No reason to just strap ourselves in to anything.

#1711

Wait a second, Keith. How come you're not following my amazing villager scheme? Gator, You and I all have to make ourselves crystal clear as to who the villager is and who the wolf is. We have to do this today, because the calculus of the game for the two survivors changes dramatically tomorrow. Assuming we see tomorrow, the two unknowns will have the perfect argument - "I know my role, so I know everyone's role." That's why it's imperative that we spend today sorting out as much info as we can while the village is still in a position to leverage the last wolf into posting things he doesn't want to post.

If you believe I am a wolf, you must also believe that Gator is the village and you must make each case as clearly as you can. Help Jyms/Wuf judge your role tomorrow on your work today.

Argue with that scheme, Keith.

P.S. Scheme proves I'm a villager 100%.

#1712

[1][Facetious!]

#1718

Not yet. I totally thought we had til the afternoon. Don't know why.

#1723

This is probably why I have such a hard time reading Gator. Even when he's putting out reads, they come across as surface sorts of things. He likes these guys and he doesn't like these other guys.

While you might hate a big field, Gator, I find it easiest to highlight wolves and villagers in a big field. It's these small fields where there's so much opportunity to misread or misapply something that I have more trouble with. Plus early in the game, lynching people and missing doesn't hurt the cause so long as you're keeping up the hunt.

I can't see how this post is anything but straightforward from Gator.

#1724

#1724

lynch Keith

#1725

If Gator is the last wolf. My only post tomorrow will be a tip of my hat to him. I just don't see any of the reasons I pushed for him to hold any water.

#1726

I like this, too. The reason he pivots from bikes and begins to pay attention to JV is all in the flow of the game.

#1728

This is a top spot, too.

#1732

This post was the origin of my suspicion. Once I stopped posting about JV, I saw he started. I thought at this point, it was pretty clear to JV that I wasn't going to let go.

I have made worse mistakes in the past.

[a500lbgorilla]

Alright, a few things to notice.

Number 1: Someone between Gator and I threw JV under the bus. Was it the guy who was on JV the moment JKDS got him to stumble and didn't stop until the case was pretty thoroughly made?

#569
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...93#post2160793

#571
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...96#post2160796

#961
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...00#post2161400

[I even bookended the pressure on JV with JKDS's play]

Or was it the guy who only started on JV after pushing for bikes, pivoting to Jyms [both highly lynchable] and only getting to JV after the initial push was almost through?

#957
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...95#post2161395

#980
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...20#post2161420

[a500lbgorilla]

Number 2:

Notice that in post 783, Gator thinks JV [along with Aubrey] is a top lynch candidate. This is at the beginning of Day 3 when both you and I have put his name up there. But he cools on JV [and Aubrey] in 888.

#783
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...23#post2161123

#888
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...10#post2161310

Gator has a funny way of being on the right side of history with these wolves and not really making it clear even he knows why.

His entire case on Aubrey is just saying her name. Go to the beginning of day 1 and alt-f aubrey and see how he always likes her as a lynch, but never says why.

Draw this against my continued supply of insights as to how I see everyone almost every time I mention their names.

[a500lbgorilla]

Number 3:

Notice that by such a late hour, Gator still hasn't done a read-thru of myself or Aubrey.

#1619

It's too close for my comfort and I haven't done my own review of Rilla so I will rescind Rilla, lynch bikes

By this point in the game, I had put out and improved upon reads on everyone.

In fact, Gator rarely supplies any reasoning for how he views villagers, while I supply a constant deluge of analysis.

[GatorJH]

Seriously Rilla? I supplied a TON of info on people regarding why I thought they were FED or villager. I was wrong about Bikes, but right about JV and Keith. Also, as I have already stated I didn't do an analysis on Aubrey because it was pretty damn clear from her actions at the end of the JV lynch that she was a Fed.

If anything it is YOU that hasn't provided any analysis other than "everybody needs to explain why they think they are a villager" type stuff.

It hit me yesterday that you were the final wolf when Keith offered to self lynch and you poo poo'd the idea. I remember doing the same exact thing with you in an earlier game and you stated, at that point that it confirmed me as a villager as there was no "end game play" in that move for the final wolf. You couldn't do the same yesterday because it would have gotten you lynched and the game would have been over.

[GatorJH]

Wuf,
It doesn't matter what I think of Rilla or what he thinks of me. The ONLY thing that matters is what YOU think. We all know that he is going to lynch me today and I am going to lynch rilla.

Take your time and out the pieces together and you will see who is who.

I am not sure how you like to operate on the last day, but I prefer to do my own analysis not listen to the others try to cloud my judgment. If you are different let me know. I am off to play golf right now, but will be back in about 5 hours and can give you whatever info you need.

[GatorJH]

Btw Rilla no I am not conveniently disappearing at a critical point. I just have a life outside this game.

I will also check in on my phone a few times, but just can't do any analysis that way.

[a500lbgorilla]

Number 4:

#1510

And guys, 3 weeks ago, if we surveyed this forum - "Which of the following is the stronger villager, and which is the stronger wolf."

GatorJH
a500lbgorilla

How would that survey go?

How does the village ever get to this point? Occam might have a suggestion.

[a500lbgorilla]

lynch GatorJH

Wuf, if you lynch Gator, you win. No lie.

[GatorJH]

That's a lie

[a500lbgorilla]

Is it?

[wufwugy]

This is so amazing

[wufwugy]

The game really is historical. It's the first non-standard one I've seen in 3 years on this board. In every other game, the wolves have always been the most wolfy/least villagery of the remaining. However, now with Keith dead, we know for a fact that JV was thrown under the bus. In addition, both Rilla and Gator have played a more villagery game than anybody else. So this is really great stuff


Not a whole lot changed since yesterday, but there are two significant ones, one of which I anticipated, and the other is gravy that I simply didn't notice with Keith around

1. The gravy one: now that we know JV was thrown under the bus, the contrast between Rilla defending Aubrey and Gator attacking Aubrey (both in the late game) is easier to understand. In a normal game, it looks like Rilla is more wolfy, but in an FPS one where JV was killed by his teammate, it makes Gator the wolf because it means the plan has been to distance and gain village cred by killing each other. It also means that the wolves really did think they needed to go FPS in order to win, so if Aubrey or Gator were to die at the other's hand, it would have been in line with the idea that it was their best path to victory

2. This is the most important one, and is what decides my lynch, regardless of any other dynamic. And I've been aware of it the entire game and have planned for it. That is: I called Gator villager a lot. I defended him on several occasions and even went so far as to fully flesh out why I was lynching Rilla instead of Gator. I purposely wanted the wolf to think that Rilla would always be my final lynch, and have been keenly aware that a meme has developed that Gator is good at tricking me. I don't think he is, I just think he's good at being a better villager than most real villagers and I simply try to best make a hierarchy of lynches that best suits that. Indeed, Gator's pretend-village game is so good that one of the best cases for his wolfiness in this game is merely the fact that I've been kept alive the entire time. I never mentioned that because it only worked if he thought I wasn't aware of it. There is relevant history here

Neeways, Gents

lynch gator

[a500lbgorilla]

[a500lbgorilla]

[surviva316]

wuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut?! No way. Awesome game rilla. You played such a good game that you made it so that this lurker got unworldly tilted whenever anyone so much as argued that you were a wolf.

[a500lbgorilla]

Nah, man. I just wanted to make some people sweat it out.

[surviva316]

Damn, on second thought, I was starting to quite like the idea of wuf making the wrong lynch with the final noose in his hand after how conceited he was the last couple of days. I agreed with the lynches regardless of the result, but the amount of use of "never" and "always" and the whole Rounders-style speech on, "You think you have a tell on me and are better than me but really I'm the one with the tells and betterness and you are but a poopoo eater compared to my 5th level wondrousosity" would have made it hilarious if he had been owned.

I'm probably out of line posting in this thread, but hey, the game's over and fuck authority and all that. I'm just excited for results 'cause this was a good game.

[wufwugy]

currently sweating it out, you gotdamn animal

[jackvance]

Nice game. Congrats with the win. Gator and Aubrey made quite the comeback after most of us thought the game was over already.

[jackvance]

wolf den: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/jeL9a7FQaNN

dead thread: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/QfaRS2VrFrY4r

[a500lbgorilla]

GG guys. It was something else.

[jyms]

Well played wuf. My exact call. I figured if I was alive it couldn't be rill. Never followed your thoughts much end game and was hoping you weren't on the same page with gator .