Drug smugglers and Feds gameplay thread

[jackvance]

No eugmac is strange, I had expected 10 short posts of analysis already. I checked the other thread, his marriage is end of august. Ofcourse it's still early.

[Hoopy]

People last game were saying ong is pretty good, but personally I still need to be convinced. He has shown he can think the game through like the best of em, but he can also get wrong ideas stuck in his head so fiercely. He said last game he was working on that, but he got killed so early. We'll have to see.

It's useful to have people who stir things up, the only problem is when two of them start attacking each other and throwing out walls of text distracting the village.

rescind Ong

[MadMojoMonkey]

been busy cutting grass all day. gotta keep the customers supplied.

I think we should do ourselves a favour and cut 5 pages off the length of this game by preemptively removing lots of whiny deranged and confused posts before the perpetrator can make them.

lynch wuf

OngBonga has a lot more posts. Are you saying that Ongie's posts are not deranged and confused?

You hear that Ongie. Someone "understands" you.

[JKDS]

Probably because the last few games I am not posting in a way that feels comfortable to me. I tend to post far too much in these games and get too much villager cred and taken out by wolves in midgame to make it harder on the village. I have been purposefully trying to stay on the edge so that I can survive midgame. Probably not the best way to play, but what else can you do.

Seriously though, what is this? You ignore Luco's "jyms is wolfy" post, and go way out of your way to immediately explain why youre gonna look wolfy this game. Why did you do this?

[JKDS]

Also guys, WW works like this.

1) Vote (this is important)
2) Build Pressure (pressure comes from votes and serious suspicions. On Day 1, its just from votes)
3) Analyze responses
4) Re-evaluate your vote.
5) Repeat till lynch.

Its so easy for wolves to just skate by with "hi, checking in" type posts when step 1) isnt followed. For instance, the whole first page is mostly useless. Hell, half the players were talking about people that ARNT EVEN IN THE GAME. If so many werent doing this, itd be wolfy as fuck because it detracts from anything useful. We should be refraining from this in the future if we want more successful day 1s.

Jyms looks wolfy, so lynch and build pressure. See who defends him and why, see how he defends himself, see who attacks and why, evaluate, etc. For instance, Wufwugy is sheeping me. Hes never sheeped before, much less me. Whats it mean? Idk, but its a good bit of info that will come in handy later when evaluating his role.

If you arnt voting SOMEBODY and building pressure, you're wasting day 1.

[Keith]

MMM really ought to consider that many of us have previous experience of wuf distracting the village. I'm not even sure what the hell you are trying to suggest by putting that about ongie in response to what i said about wuf. If i meant Ongie i'd have lynched ongie. It certainly doesn't give you much credibility for deductive reasoning in the endgame.

This almost looks like a deflective protection of wuf by refocussing my post onto Ongie. MMM and wuf as a wolf team with the noob making a mistake?

[JKDS]

MMM gets villager cred for 78. Its a legit point for someone not aware of the meta, and looks villagery.

[wufwugy]

god i love keith. apparently im the new sdm

[JKDS]

I missed 75. NG gets jack for echoing, but MMM gets more V cred.

[JKDS]

I'm thinking 'lol' is wolf code for something.

lynch OngBonga

My use of "lol" should be far more suspicious if this is a real concern. Why ong instead of me. If its not a real concern, then why are you contributing to poor discussion that you reprimand just a few posts later?

[GatorJH]

pascal still hasn't bothered to post so let's see what happens if we start a lynch pascal wagon.

[NightGizmo]

I missed 75. NG gets jack for echoing, but MMM gets more V cred.

FWIW, I was tracking the inactives, too. But I wasn't around before MMM responded to jyms' shortened list, so I just found it easier to quote jyms+MMM and directly ask jyms why he left out other inactives. But I agree, I give MMM villager points for being on top of it -- in your shoes, I'd ignore my echo, too.

In the wolves+vampires game, our wolf team had an immediate inactive and it was really tough to decide what to do, not knowing if that player was going to show up. I felt it was a possibility that jyms was dealing with this same scenario -- perhaps one of [Eugmac, Pascal] is a fellow wolf and he was hoping to let them skate by at least one day before coming under pressure. Obviously, it's pure speculation right now, but I have nothing better at the moment.

lynch jyms

BTW -- JKDS post #80 is solid, I never explicitly thought about using votes on day 1 as your only tool, and now I realize I've always waited to vote for a long time on day 1 -- which never really helps the village. Vote!

[MadMojoMonkey]

@Keith

So far, no one sticks out like jyms. All that lovey dovey villager stuff just screams credibility-grab.

lynch jyms

[a500lbgorilla]

My use of "lol" should be far more suspicious if this is a real concern. Why ong instead of me. If its not a real concern, then why are you contributing to poor discussion that you reprimand just a few posts later?

Where did I reprimand anyone, JKDS? It seems to me that my first comment noticing the frequent use of lol and my later comment that the village needs to start to focus may be linked. But what do I know as simply the author? You and Ong are probably right that I genuinely thought lol was a literal wolf-gangsign.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Oh, shit. Please no modkill for fixing a spelling error. It was instintive. I wrote Kieth instead of Keith, and ... well ... oops.

[a500lbgorilla]

@Keith

So far, no one sticks out like jyms. All that lovey dovey villager stuff just screams credibility-grab.

lynch jyms

EDIT BAD

[MadMojoMonkey]

[OngBonga]

You and Ong are probably right that I genuinely thought lol was a literal wolf-gangsign.

I wasn't being serious. I didn't think you were serious. Why so serious?

[a500lbgorilla]

I'm hunting wolves, ong. And the first step to that is to get others to hunt with me. What are you doing?

[daven]

i like ong vs jyms. ong bolding 3 people whimsically doesn't sit well

really?
lynch wuf

[OngBonga]

I'm hunting wolves, ong. And the first step to that is to get others to hunt with me. What are you doing?

You're hunting wolves? You have your vote on me, excuse me if I find that a little amusing. What am I doing? I'm town hunting. I got JKDS, mojo and gizmo right now.

[JKDS]

Where did I reprimand anyone, JKDS? It seems to me that my first comment noticing the frequent use of lol and my later comment that the village needs to start to focus may be linked. But what do I know as simply the author? You and Ong are probably right that I genuinely thought lol was a literal wolf-gangsign.

Jyms and Gator are the only ones who seem to be trying to make it difficult for wolves to post.

Ong and crew shooting the many shits gets participation up, which should be good, but it's easy participation and so doesn't even being to establish any pressure on the wolves.

Best result for day 1 would be bingoing a wolf, but a successful day will definitely require the caliber of discussion to be up 3 or 4 notches and some discussion on how the village needs to begin to move forward.

Bold added for emphasis. So again, was this lol comment a serious concern, in which case your vote for ong instead of me needs explaining; or was it just poor discussion, in which case why were you advocating for better discussion just 10min later?

[daven]

forgot to Rescind Ong - cos that vote wasn't much use
also, gabe/bikes/eug/pascal - still a while left in the day before mod-kill risk kicks in. There's an ok chance that they don't even realise that the game has started. I'm hesitant to wagon any of them for at least another 12hrs
Jyms - looking well dodgy, but maybe just an oversight?
we should be highlighting those who don't vote, because on early days not voting is akin to not posting.
wuf, what are your thoughts on a Jyms vs Pascal wagon?

[OngBonga]

I can explain rilla's vote for me. I think I pushed my luck with him last game I was wolf. I got a little bit too much enjoyment fucking with him. I think he wants me dead so it can't happen again. I was expecting rilla to vote me today tbh, regardless of his role. I'm null on rilla. I think this line of pressure JKDS is persuing is not going anywhere. I don't think rilla's vote for me was because I was saying lol. It's because I annoyed him last time he played.

[wufwugy]

Wow

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...71#post2159971
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...72#post2159972
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...73#post2159973
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...17#post2160017

Did y'all see that?

In order of posts:

1. Daven bolds Ong
2. Daven says Ong and Jyms are his fave pics
3. I say I like Ong and Jyms too
4. Daven questions why I like Ong and Jyms and bolds me

If this isn't a wolf, I don't know what is. Hope it's not just Daven being a doof.

I like the cases made against Jyms quite a bit, that's why I'm bolded on him, but this Daven weirdness is...uh...weird. It *could* be protecting Jyms. Regardless, it looks to me like Jyms and Daven are our best shots so far

rescind jyms lynch daven

I'm not pulling off of Jyms so much as I'm landing on Daven. They're both great targets

[OngBonga]

rescind wuf

lynch daven

daven looks a lot worse than wuf right now.

[daven]

Wow

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...71#post2159971
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...72#post2159972
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...73#post2159973
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...17#post2160017

Did y'all see that?

In order of posts:

1. Daven bolds Ong
2. Daven says Ong and Jyms are his fave pics
3. I say I like Ong and Jyms too
4. Daven questions why I like Ong and Jyms and bolds me

If this isn't a wolf, I don't know what is. Hope it's not just Daven being a doof.

I like the cases made against Jyms quite a bit, that's why I'm bolded on him, but this Daven weirdness is...uh...weird. It *could* be protecting Jyms. Regardless, it looks to me like Jyms and Daven are our best shots so far

rescind jyms lynch daven

I'm not pulling off of Jyms so much as I'm landing on Daven. They're both great targets

my reasoning for thinking you are dodgy isn't that you want to target ong and jyms, it's cos you think that ong spraying votes around is evidence of him being wolf when it's just evidence of ong gonna ong - you've played enough to know that, yet you claim to think it looks suspicious = that makes me suspicious of you. Jyms is definitely a good target for now as well, and so are the inactives.

[daven]

wuf, in case you missed it the first time:

wuf, what are your thoughts on a Jyms vs Pascal wagon?

i wanna do a day 1 read [Jyms][Wuf][Pascal] just cos it's the sort of thing wuf does!

[aubreymcfate]

I agree with daven being dodgy for the already stated reasons. however - if we're going to micro analyze, which we should, daven never specified why he found ong wolfy. in fact, he later says "that vote wasn't much use" in post 98. if daven is a villager and his lynch was sincere, it means he thinks wuf is suspicious for pointing out ong's triple lynch as suspect. but daven isn't really known for defending ong's early play - in fact he attacked ong early game last game too. and daven was villager.

so yeah, the little details are annoying.

still, the discrepancy is the most significant lead we have so far, i think. i have more faith in wolf daven to not mess up like that, but a) who knows and b) let's see what comes of it.

lynch daven

also, in response to JKDS's post #79, I don't think jyms is necessarily wolfy there. it would be just so incredibly ballsy.. i mean wow. and i also play like that, pretty transparent about my thought processes and concerns, so i can understand why he'd say that.

[aubreymcfate]

my reasoning for thinking you are dodgy isn't that you want to target ong and jyms, it's cos you think that ong spraying votes around is evidence of him being wolf when it's just evidence of ong gonna ong - you've played enough to know that, yet you claim to think it looks suspicious = that makes me suspicious of you. Jyms is definitely a good target for now as well, and so are the inactives.

it's funny - i was suspicious of you last game for the same exact reason. you always think ong is wolfy in the beginning (didn't that happen in the game back in january too? or am i remembering wrong - that doesn't really count though because you were a noob) but you don't come out and explicitly say why, and now you think wug is totally off?

just curious, why did you think ong was wolfy in the first place?

[daven]

it's funny - i was suspicious of you last game for the same exact reason. you always think ong is wolfy in the beginning (didn't that happen in the game back in january too? or am i remembering wrong - that doesn't really count though because you were a noob) but you don't come out and explicitly say why, and now you think wug is totally off?

just curious, why did you think ong was wolfy in the first place?

his spray this time feels different, i expected him to come up with ridiculous theories and he hasn't done

that, plus this:

Weird British humour.

Anyway I still have a random vote down. rescind

Someone do something wolfy.

not much really, as i said, only remotely wolf
wuf accusing ong of being a wolf for making multiple bolds seems more lazy than i imagine wuf being = raised my suspicions of wuf
plus he now seems eager to seize an opportunity to get off the jyms wagon, tying him in with jyms imo
i want his thoughts on jyms vs pascal wagons still, he managed to conveniently overlook this while going through my posts

[daven]

i also want to see posts from people who aren't wuf/ong/me...

[daven]

e.g. jyms, why didn't you include pascal and eug in your list?

[wufwugy]

his spray this time feels different, i expected him to come up with ridiculous theories and he hasn't done

um dude you accused me of be suspicious for, um, saying pretty much the same exact thing.

so yeah, you're a wolf

[daven]

i like ong vs jyms. ong bolding 3 people whimsically doesn't sit well

tnhis was your reasoning

[daven]

i expected to see complex ong theories, they were absent = seemed a bit wolf to me
you saw three ong votes and quick chnages = seemed a bit wolf to you

reasoning is different

[rong]

Vote Count Update

Daven - 3 (Ong, Wuf, Aubrey)
Jyms - 3 (JKDS, MMM, NG)
Ong - 2 (Luco, Rilla)
Pascal - 1 (Gator)

[rong]

Madmojomonkey - Don't edit posts for any reason whatsoever. If you want to correct something, make another post with the correction in it, do not edit or delete any posts! I'll let you off the first one because it's your first game but do not do it again!

[rong]

Game Info
A quick point on modkills for inactivity. I will not modkill anyone for inactivity without stating it in this thread long before I do it, so you guys have a chance to take that information into account before it happens. I will also PM people a few times to encourage participation before modkilling them as well.

[Savy]

Fuck that, When's the last time this same group of guys has ever been right first few nights. I'm not even going to waste time defending myself.

Three non posters

Gabe
Bikes
Keith

Surely this is far too much of an obvious oversight from someone who has played the game a lot to suggest that Eug and Pascal are both wolves and if Jyms is a wolf this won't really give a huge amount of information away as to who the other wolves are because it's a likely mix of some form.

I also don't know whether it's a wolfy post or just a way to get accusations thrown around, if he is a wolf there is no benefit in trying to get Pascal and Eug (both fairly new players I think, correct me if I'm wrong) through to later stages in the game where they are more likely to make huge mistakes when he would no doubt consider himself much more of an asset to the wolf team than either of these players. The problem with this argument though is I don't know what benefits would be applied by trying to draw attention to / away from the three posters he mentioned because I have no idea how they play or how good they are.

Going with the crowd to try and build some pressure for some form of explanation.

lynch Jyms

[gabe]

the last game I played was the witch fingering game. bikes spazzed out big time and hurt the village by fingering ong I think

this was huge spew and I think cost the village some equity. I think he should be punished so people are discouraged from
spewing like this. IMO there's really nothing else to go on

lynch bikes

[Savy]

#21 giving reasoning as to why he tries to stay on the edge of villager/wolf before making a post like that screams wolf at me even more after rereading it.

[Luco]

i'm not comfortable with either luco or ong running around with rohypnol
lynch one of them for sure, then the other, all cos i want to be safe from dodgy brit-sex

Hey! I'm a gentle lover

Weird British humour.

Anyway I still have a random vote down. rescind

Someone do something wolfy.

Drumroll...

This is a first post.

...cymbal crash!

been busy cutting grass all day. gotta keep the customers supplied.

I think we should do ourselves a favour and cut 5 pages off the length of this game by preemptively removing lots of whiny deranged and confused posts before the perpetrator can make them.

lynch wuf

ha ha ha ha ha

[jackvance]

lynch bikes

Gotta keep that meta rolling.

[Luco]

Jyms leading the vote & Daven just behind, cue standard 'if jyms is a wolf gabe & JV are trying to derail' post...

rescind ong

Lynch Jyms

Choo choo! Although I'm also looking at Gator & JV as possible feds. I think I saw JV whispering into his wristwatch when he went to use the bathroom.

In both of their cases though I can't decide if they're villager or just trying to sound like one.

[jackvance]

You're a tricky guy Luco, I did read in the past game how you specifically echoed things I said in previous games back to me to appear like a villager. All I see so far is typical day 1 jabber, not saying nothing that has been noted can't hold truth, but nothing has been really convincing. The fact that you're trying to cast suspicion on bolding a person that hasn't made a single post yet is a bit odd tbh.

[Luco]

You're a tricky guy Luco, I did read in the past game how you specifically echoed things I said in previous games back to me to appear like a villager. All I see so far is typical day 1 jabber, not saying nothing that has been noted can't hold truth, but nothing has been really convincing. The fact that you're trying to cast suspicion on bolding a person that hasn't made a single post yet is a bit odd tbh.

Yeah day1 is always a hot mess, I'm mildy amused that jkds and rilla are taking it so seriously. As for suspicion - unless there's about 14 wolves I'm not getting close to solving this yet, so in the meantime I'm gonna prod some peeps with my prodding stick. PROD!

What I was trying to say is that the wolves aren't likely to make any glaring mistakes and in all likelihood will sound villagery enough on day1 to make themselves 'not a good pick'. Every post from both you & gator could easily fit that criteria, I possibly have a couple of villager leans but you ain't one of them... yet.

Suspicion on you & Gabe rests on jyms being a wolf and it's so tenuous I noted it with a hint of sarcasm. We'll get to the inactives in due course, in the meantime I will assign you zero villager points for your defense post. Enjoy

[eugmac]

Hi, sorry for not posting till page 3, very bad form. I'll read the thread later today.

[Luco]

Hi, sorry for not posting till page 3, very bad form. I'll read the thread later today.

Yay eug's here

[jackvance]

I can say this atm. Rilla, I'm not too worried about him because he's a good villager, but imo not a good wolf (ie easy to spot if he is). For me Gator is the same. I know everyone will disagree with me on that, but as I've said (or hinted at) in previous games, in a game before his long playing hiatus I was able to spot his wolf game, so I'm not too worried.

JKDS, he's tricky. Dunno for sure how to go about distinguishing his wolf game from his villager game. He plays a strong game either way I think, because of his experience from playing mafia games outside of FTR. This makes it hard to gauge what level he is on.

Ong, I can never understand his reasoning very much so I'll have to see more from him. Jyms, the fact that he plays the game in an exact way to be able to be a better wolf is, hm, kinda makes me want to lynch him for that reason alone because it'll be tough to read him, but not gonna jump the gun. Wuf, I think I can spot if he is a wolf by dissecting his reasoning once he starts to post more openly. Gabe can be tricky but he has some subtle tells to look for.

Just some preliminary thoughts here.

[jackvance]

Also I probably shouldn't be posting my opinions so openly anymore, but yeah I can't really help it lol. It makes easier to deceive. But I'll accept that extra challenge.

[eugmac]

No eugmac is strange, I had expected 10 short posts of analysis already. I checked the other thread, his marriage is end of august. Ofcourse it's still early.

August 9th. In a bit over 3 weeks. Massive stress. I promise that I won't be as active as the last game from this fact alone but I'll do the best I can.

[GatorJH]

Hi, sorry for not posting till page 3, very bad form. I'll read the thread later today.

Can't wait to read this.

Pascal still hasn't shown up so I am sticking with him for now.

[a500lbgorilla]

Bold added for emphasis. So again, was this lol comment a serious concern, in which case your vote for ong instead of me needs explaining; or was it just poor discussion, in which case why were you advocating for better discussion just 10min later?

Neither of these two things, JKDS. It was a comment on the caliber of discussion in the thread which I later built upon.

Luco - day 1 is usually a hot mess, but that's because we've always embraced it as destined to be a hot mess.

[a500lbgorilla]

My tendency would be to help defend jyms in a spot like this since it's easy for people to make the mistake of having their suspicion color a lot of things wolfy when they shouldn't be colored at all. His omitting some inactives, for instance, doesn't seem like anything but a hasty mistake.

Probably because the last few games I am not posting in a way that feels comfortable to me. I tend to post far too much in these games and get too much villager cred and taken out by wolves in midgame to make it harder on the village. I have been purposefully trying to stay on the edge so that I can survive midgame. Probably not the best way to play, but what else can you do.

This then the hasty post where he says he's not going to defend and throws the first pile of names he can pull from memory is raising alarm bells for me. Jyms, what about being a villager makes you uncomfortable?

[Luco]

@JV Jyms didn't say he was living on the edge to be a better wolf, he said he was living on the edge to avoid lock status and therefore nightkill.

JKDS what did you mean by 'sheeping' when you mentioned wuf?

[Hoopy]

Only bikes and Pascal haven't posted yet.

We've got to put pressure on inactive people to post or get rid of them early on, else the game is much easier for the wolves.

Besides isn't pascal always a wolf?

lynch pascal

[a500lbgorilla]

How can you put pressure on someone who hasn't shown up yet?

[Hoopy]

I miss being able to isolate all the posts by one user in a thread.

[jyms]

e.g. jyms, why didn't you include pascal and eug in your list?

Just to clarify this,There is 18 players and we had 15 posted so I went through the list to find the 3. I have no idea why I missed that rong was posting and doesn't count so it should have been 4. I have no idea how I miss counted another.

[Hoopy]

How can you put pressure on someone who hasn't shown up yet?

No idea, but I plan to try anyway!

[Luco]

How can you put pressure on someone who hasn't shown up yet?

Anyone who doesn't post on day 1 is gay.

That should do it.

Also, Hoopy - Pascal rolled villager the last two games running. The award for 'always a wolf' should go to you imo. Because you're always a wolf. Even when you're villager.

[Hoopy]

Probably because the last few games I am not posting in a way that feels comfortable to me. I tend to post far too much in these games and get too much villager cred and taken out by wolves in mid game to make it harder on the village. I have been purposefully trying to stay on the edge so that I can survive midgame. Probably not the best way to play, but what else can you do.

I think it's better for the village if you just play normally (posting loads) even if it means the wolves nom you by mid game. Surviving to the endgame is kinda dependent on the game structure as well.

Besides if you make yourself too ambiguous people might want to lynch you anyway, as uh, they do now!

[jyms]

Ya that's cool, but sooner or later I am going to come up wolf and I needed to post less. No way could I have kept playing the way I was and be a wolf. I was posting too much before. I want to post now all the time but it does me no good. Particularly on day 1.

And without bikes and pascal posting, 18 players posted and two haven't. How does this work?

[rong]

vote count update
Jyms - 5 (jkds, MMM, NightGizmo, Savy, luco)
daven - 3 (ongbonga, wufwugy, aubreymcfate)
Pascal - 2 (gator, hoopy)
Bikes - 2 (gabe, JV)
Wufwugy - 2 (Keith, Daven)
Ongbonga - 1 (rilla)




Not voting: Eug, Jyms, Pascal, Bikes


Not even posted yet: bikes, pascal

Approx 18 1/2 hrs left of day one

[jyms]

nevermind. there are 19 duh!!

Was that an edit rong??

[Luco]

Rong can you include 'not voting' in vote counts plz?

[rong]

NO! It's a pain in the ass doing this from my phone, I will when I'm at home.

[Luco]

NO! It's a pain in the ass doing this from my phone, I will when I'm at home.

Cool cool.

Not voting: Daven, Keith, Eug, Jyms, Pascal, Bikes

I think that's right...

[Hoopy]

@rilla/JV/Gator

What do you think of wuf's case against daven in post #100?

[rong]

Cool cool.

Not voting: Daven, Keith, Eug, Jyms, Pascal, Bikes

I think that's right...

Vote count updated.

[jackvance]

I dunno, how to put it, he doesn't look particularly villagery to me. But I'm not sure what his current wolf game would look like. Have to see more is my stance if I have to take one I guess.

[jyms]

I'm not voting yet because most of the heat is on me. I don't see who to vote yet. I'm not going to bother to defend myself, and the lack of defence by others so early in a game will be obvious to most of the better players, I'm not a wolf.

To think wolves have ever made an obvious mistake on day one, and caught on day one is ridiculous. Check every Wolf thread in the last few games and see the planning, the rebuttal and thought that goes into a single post by wolves.

[jackvance]

Ok have to add I am talking about Daven there.

[jyms]

You know what, fuck this. Lynch bikes He needs to post. probably leveled us to play and going to get modkilled anyway