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Turn 55 BvB into a river bluff?

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  1. #1

    Default Turn 55 BvB into a river bluff?

    No real reads on villain and doubt he's got any on me. I don't recognise his name but he hasn't done anything stupid in the few hands he's been at the table so could be a reg.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 8.8 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP3 (t4485)
    CO (t13801)
    Button (t5000)
    Hero (SB) (t8150)
    BB (t13136)
    UTG (t13866)
    UTG+1 (t5408)
    MP1 (t5627)
    MP2 (t8557)

    Hero's M: 13.58

    Preflop: Hero is SB with 5, 5
    7 folds, Hero bets t600, BB calls t350

    Flop: (t1425) 9, 2, 9 (2 players)
    Hero bets t598, BB calls t598

    Turn: (t2621) A (2 players)
    Hero bets t786, BB calls t786

    River: (t4193) 7 (2 players)
    Hero bets t2455

    Pre and flop seem standard but not sure about turn and river. Decided betting river would be better checking rather than calling as I don't really want to face a bet. Turn is obviously a perfect barrel card but doubt there's much I get value from.
  2. #2
    if you are 4betting pre I would raise 3x to start just to make the 4b a little smaller. if you are giving up to 3 bet I like the size.

    larger on turn, you are pricing in a fd + overs which plays a lot better than your hand OOP OTR. I do like betting more than checking.

    spades , deuces and nines seem to be the only things he can have by the river. i would just c/f river with no reads on the assumption he won't bluff 2x much.
  3. #3
    I agree with you. Flop cbet standart, turn with the A 2nd barrel but when he calls turn there are a low hands that you beat in the river so he has going to call a lot of times so i prefer check-fold river
  4. #4
    Convince me why betting the turn is better than checking
  5. #5
    if he has a worse non fd hand, we can't get value but can still be bluffed.

    if we give up the turn I think we fold the best hand too much, but if we always call we're paying off too much.

    if he didn't raise FD+overs on flop, he probably won't do it now and may just check back the river when he misses.

    what is your plan after you check?
  6. #6
    I don't like turn or river, there's nothing that makes me believe he doesn't possess and A, trips or a flush a lot of the time.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy View Post
    if he has a worse non fd hand, we can't get value but can still be bluffed.

    if we give up the turn I think we fold the best hand too much, but if we always call we're paying off too much.

    if he didn't raise FD+overs on flop, he probably won't do it now and may just check back the river when he misses.
    I think this nails it for me, especially the 2nd point. If we choose to c/c turn c/c river then we're always hoping that he knows that our hand has been turned face up and also thinks that we're going to fold it. Which means we'll be faced with a tough decision on the river nearly always because basically every card in the deck is a bad card for us and we'll never know if he's valuing or bluffing. There's definitely stuff we can get value from on the turn, like most kings and all flush draws, and given your thread point I guess you think betting turn then c/f river is better when spade hits and calling when it misses would be a good line?

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