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TPTK on dryish board, 2 streets or 3?

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  1. #1

    Default TPTK on dryish board, 2 streets or 3?

    Final 2 tables of charity tournament, villain in hand is a middle-age lady wearing headphones, claims to be a cash game reg.

    We have ~31K at 300/600/1200. UTG is a middle-age Asian woman who limps.

    I just moved to the table and have

    in MP and make it 3,200 in MP. Villain calls OTB, blinds fold, UTG calls.

    Flop (pot14,100):
    UTG checks, I bet 5,900, BTN calls, UTG folds

    Turn: (25,900):
    Hero bets 8,500, BTN calls

    River: (42,900):
    Hero goes all in for 13,500

    Like I don't think villain is very strong here and I wanted to size it so she could continue with most of her range. Or do you prefer sizing slightly bigger on flop and then jamming all turns?
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  2. #2
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    This is an interesting hand.

    Disclaimer: I haven't played tournament / short stacked poker in years.


    At first I was all, "blah blah blah," but then I was like, ""

    It looked like you just burned all value OTR, until I realized how extremely fishy your line looks. There's probably no river that you don't shove on*, right? You're going to encourage a cash game reg to look you up with almost all Q's and maybe even AJs, ATs,A6s,A4s when they miss the FD some portion of the time.

    If Villain has your TPTK beat, then they outplayed you OTF, or you priced them into 2-pair, or they got ballsy with AK and no outs, then caught broadway on runner-runner.
    Most Villains would ship top 2 OTT against you, so I think you can rule out at least 50% of the QJ combos.

    That leaves AK and QT that actually beat you OTR because you priced them in, and plenty that will look you up.
    If you were outplayed OTF, then gg, wp.


    *You can't fear all and OTR when you're left with less than 10M if you don't take this pot.
  3. #3
    yeah i'm kinda aiming at getting her to call down with 77-99 type hands
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  4. #4
    chardrian's Avatar
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    I bet more like 8k on flop and shove turn.

    As played, I actually don't know what I do on river since it is like the worst card in the deck for us - it either hits her hard or scares her out of the pot (if she has 99-). I think I am more inclined to check and try and force a bluff then I am in shoving since we are never forcing better hands to fold and I am not sure if we can get 99- hands to call us here.
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  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by chardrian View Post
    I bet more like 8k on flop and shove turn.

    As played, I actually don't know what I do on river since it is like the worst card in the deck for us - it either hits her hard or scares her out of the pot (if she has 99-). I think I am more inclined to check and try and force a bluff then I am in shoving since we are never forcing better hands to fold and I am not sure if we can get 99- hands to call us here.
    In hand I was thinking that a lot of rivers are bad for getting action from worse hands. I was never folding on any runout but I was second-guessing myself on leaving such awkward stack sizes for river.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  6. #6
    Eric's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chardrian View Post
    I bet more like 8k on flop and shove turn.
    Me too. Might even shove the turn after the smaller flop bet, especially in a charity type event where people might get drunk and chase.
  7. #7
    I would probably also just bet flop and jam the turn. The 77-99 hands that you're trying to get value from would probably be more likely to call two barrels than three. As played I would never check the river because I think she has worse hands that will call a jam but check behind if I check.
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
    Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.

    blog: http://donkeybrainspoker.com/


    Watch me stream $200 hyper HU and $100 Spins on Twitch!
  8. #8
    chardrian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by donkbee View Post
    As played I would never check the river because I think she has worse hands that will call a jam but check behind if I check.
    Against this particular opp I might shove as well. But against most tourney players I disagree - the river is a huge scare card for a double barreler, the pot is big, and many players feel compelled to try to steal pots when checked to. Especially when you leave yourself with 10 BBs against someone that has you covered. One of the top mistakes that tourney players make is turning bluffcatching hands into bluffs. Add this to the fact that opp's range includes XcXc and maybe even 87 and a check becomes even better. I feel like the only hands we are really losing value to by checking are KQ and maybe Q9s.
    http://chardrian.blogspot.com
    come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com
  9. #9
    In my experience with these kind of stacks (I have a large sample but it's in hyper SnGs, not MTTs), if the villain has any piece of the board, she is almost always going to check behind on this river with it. I don't really see a lot of people turning their pairs into bluffs here on this kind of run out. Yes the villain will sometimes bluff jam on the river with the club draws and 87 that you stated, but that definitely isn't 100% of the time. I also think we're getting value from a few more hands than KQ and Q9s, so makes sense that our opinions here differ a lot.
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
    Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.

    blog: http://donkeybrainspoker.com/


    Watch me stream $200 hyper HU and $100 Spins on Twitch!
  10. #10
    Sounds like you got some good value with your bets, but after the second diamond peeled off I would probably shove turn.

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