Thoughts on 4bet with AKs

OK everyone, I don't have the HH from this hand so I have to type it out. I wasn't the hero but they are a known player. This tourney is a 2 seat sat. down to the final 8. Hero is basically tied for chip lead and MP2 is in like 4th chips. Everyone else is pretty short but ONLY 2 seats.

Hero is on BTN with 32k holding AKs
blinds are 1k-2k
utg folds
utg+1 shoves for 4k
1 fold
MP2 raises to 9k and has 14.5k behind
all folds to Hero
Hero on BTN ships for 32k

No stats are running and the only read we have is MP2 can be loose. However, this is the first time they have min-raised. What would you do on the BTN with AKs?

I say fold with read, you would need to be almost sure of a fold to shove here.

this isn't really a min raise, I don't think you can read anything into his raise size except that he probably doesn't get satellites.

Based on what mc is saying (and feel free to correct) I believe this comes down to an ICM issue, and we're afraid of the possibility of MP2 holding a large pp.

I'm not sure about that though. Given that this is a satellite tournament (assuming fairly low buy-in) the field isn't likely to be especially tough. I don't have pokerstove on this computer to verify, but how do we look if we assign a weakish range of AJs+, AQ+, 99+ for MP2? How does this alter our ICM consideration?

we're a flip vs that range.

we don't want to get it in vs any PP, it doesn't matter how big it is.

Ok cool, my friend just emailed me the HH so I thought I would post it. This is either a $16 or $20 sat I don't remember which.

ICM does kind of come into play but not a ton. Only first and second get $$$

Absolute/UB Cereus Hold'em, $2.00 BB (7 handed) - Absolute/UB Cereus Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($29095)
CO ($32815)
Button ($4550)
Hero (SB) ($30950)
BB ($6550)
UTG ($4300)
MP1 ($24740)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A
BB bets $4800, 1 fold, MP1 raises to $9600, 3 folds, Hero raises to $28352 (All-In)

ICM is a huge factor. The chips you would win here are not nearly as useful as the chip you lose. If there was 1 seat it would not matter, here what else would be more important? If your friend wants to play a lot of sats he should find a good ICM calc and use it, if not he should find a better use for his time. It would also be different if winning this pot guaranteed us a seat but with two other big stacks that's far from the case.

You seem like you're applying SNG thinking where this would be far enough from the bubble not too worry much. But in SNGs getting HU with a big chip lead means something, here it's the same as being down 40/1 in chips.

also the HH is wack, BB acts first.

Yeah sorry, its an absolute HH. Just move the action back two so BB is utg.

As for ICM, all I was saying is that it matters less now than it would if it was 4 handed. ICM also doesnt take into account that if hero wins. 2 players are eliminated and hero now has the chip lead.

FWIW hero is a pro.

If there were 4 left in this spot we could play the hand and win in the worst case scenario where MP calls, we can't do that with 8. Also the chip lead doesn't mean much unless everyone is playing really tight and we can use our safety net. And if that's the case why would we play this hand?

FWIW hero is a pro.

it's worth zero to me, why did you bring this up? Playing multi seat satellites and not wanting to run your numbers is just silly and a waste, he would be much better off playing the games that made him decide to go pro where I assume he has an edge. The fact that he's doing it full time makes it worse, not better. You can probably make money playing SNGs guesstimating your bubble shoves. I did. But I quit when I realized it was dumb. Doing it with sats is much worse because there is no way you can instinctively play them correctly, unless you suck at poker in exactly the way you would need to to fold AA.

I just brought it up because of the "needs to get a calculator" comment.

I dont understand why we cant do it with 8 but we can with 4. My lack of experience seems like this should be backwards. Hero was one tabling this? Where does the mutli tabling come into play?

seat, not table. if the prize is one seat, chip EV = cash EV

I'm not saying we can get it in with 4 either. I'm saying IF we get it in here with 4 left, the upside is we win. If we get it in with 8 left, we have won nothing.

The fact that he is a pro does not connote magic ICM understanding, he still needs to get one. Clearly he sent the hand to you so he didn't know what to do. Here's what you do - put them on ranges and run the numbers. Again, if that isn't appealing (it isn't to me) just don't play satellites. If he's playing as low as a 16 sat there must be many other tables he could be at.

I just thought it might change your view on MP's shove range a bit being hero is capable of putting villains on ranges.

I asked for the HH because I thought it was a sick hand. My ICM calc says a calling range of 5.1%, 99+ AQs+ AQo+ if we assume MP's bet is a shove.

Im really not trying to argue for the sake of arguing. I just thought I understood ICM a little better than I guess I did.

I just thought it might change your view on MP's shove range a bit being hero is capable of putting villains on ranges.

I don't know what this means. Did MP know he's a pro and puts people on ranges?

what range do you have MP on? that's really all the hand has to discuss.

Meaning hero knows how to properly put villains on ranges. So I mentioned heros back ground to take into consideration when doing ICM calculations. Hero obv thought AKs fell into their ICM range.

Personally I would have folded this which is why I asked to post it. I have a ton of respect for hero's game and peoples opinions on here. So I thought it might drum up a good conversation.

why would hero putting people on ranges change MP's range or the ICM math?

I was trying to help narrow your range of MP by telling you hero thinks AKs is in proper shoving range. I gave heros back ground as to say this line and thought process has some credibility.

I did some quick ICM stuff and hero only needs to be 50% to make the call. Is that what you got?

here where i got using Tai's ,math and the chillin thing

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...se-t49674.html

http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php


we have 23.84% equity now

38.88 % if we win

0 if we lose and MP wins since I'm lazy

so our (chance to win) * 38.88 needs to be > than 23.84

which gets us to 61% equity needed to break even. It's a little better than that since we still have chips left. Also we might beat MP but lose to UTG.

I did it again and I got 58% this time.

Stack is worth if hero:
folds- $95.95
Calls and wins- $165.51
Calls and lose- 0

(95.95-0) / (165.51-0) = 58%

Did I not do something correctly?

works for me, again it's more complex since really we should figure both pots separately. I would think we'll still need over 50% since our equity is not doubling.

in the main pot that's almost impossible with AK, so comes down to what you put MP on, also if he'll fold some PPs that would help. In general in sats I'm always going to lean to the conservative play.

Yeah, I did the lazy way of ICM lol but none the less I think its close. Villain has been semi loose so would be capable of folding here.

What are your thoughts on beyond the math type situations? It seems that it may apply here.

my thoughts are in satellites, don't go beyond the math. but I don't really know what you mean

Like we have our equity but the two things ICM dosent take into consideration are A) does the situation knock a player out and B) What future advantages your new stack will give you.

ICM gives us our equity after we knock them both out so I don't know that I get A

B it's good to have a big stack but I don't know how to quantify it. seems like it depends how the table is playing but either way it isn't going to be a stack we can fold to the money with I don't think.

Actually scratch A because its such a small factor...The reason I ask B is because the range I put villain on gives AKs a 56% equity. Hero would be 2% -EV shoving (Not including FE). But does the edge created by hero winning a big stack make up for the 2%?