std does he have set spot vs random

200 mixed scoop

been at table 4 hands, Villain had KK in one hand, raised pre, Axx flop, he made small bet on turn and checked it down otherwise.

I made it 500 pre, converter being weird. He has about 4.8k on river

No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 62.50/125 Blinds (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t4364)
MP (t11374)
CO (t8100)
Button (t14399)
SB (t8436)
Hero (BB) (t15806)

Hero's M: 84.30

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
2 folds, CO calls t125, 1 fold, SB calls t65, Hero bets t375, CO calls t375, 1 fold

Flop: (t1125) 8, 4, Q (2 players)
Hero bets t875, CO calls t875

Turn: (t2875) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets t1875, CO calls t1875

River: (t6625) J (2 players)
Hero ?

it sure seems like an easy shove for value?

I guess my question is more what you're putting him on, I tend to agree I pretty much have to shove, I was more asking myself what I expected him to have, I don't think it's AQ very often with the CO limp, I have two KK so not much KQ either (also a weird CO limp hand), I lose to QJ and I can't really see QT-, TT/99 calling. So since I have no idea what he has seemed like a good hand to post.

I would probably check here and fold if villain shoved. Like you stated you aren't going to get a lot of value from the hands your crushing. As for a range I could see this as like: 44, 99-JJ, KQ, QJ JT. Its going to fluctuate a bit but I wouldn't be shocked to see any of these show up.

Since it seems like theres no hand in his range thats air on the river, wouldnt bet/folding for something like 1250 be better than a c/f?

I thought for awhile about sizing flop and turn barrels smaller to keep his range wide, but you probably miss too much value. We're happy about shoving on any river that isn't J/T/A right?

yeah I dunno, this hand makes me feel like I have no idea how to play poker.

I wanted to bet fold at first but then I was worried if he was goofy enough to have AQ/KQ surely he'd be goofy enough to ship it?

Originally Posted by fjuanl

We're happy about shoving on any river that isn't J/T/A right?

I would feel much, much better about it. There is certainly an argument for bet/folding but to me that feels like a waste of chips since we are pretty much convinced he has us beat before we even bet.

fwiw I would c/c like 1.2k.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

I wanted to bet fold at first but then I was worried if he was goofy enough to have AQ/KQ surely he'd be goofy enough to ship it?

My thing is why would villain wait till river to get value? Do $200 donks play TPTK/GK like a set often?

Originally Posted by drmcboy

yeah I dunno, this hand makes me feel like I have no idea how to play poker.

I wanted to bet fold at first but then I was worried if he was goofy enough to have AQ/KQ surely he'd be goofy enough to ship it?

I think if hes passive enough to open limp KQ/AQ, he's probably not the type to make a thin shove on this river if you bet small

This hand looks exactly like a hand I had in a cash game recently where I checked a J river and the guy checked behind with AQ after limp-calling pre. So that may be coloring my judgment on this.

if he's bad enough to limp AQ I doubt he has much river thinking process, he'll just helmuth style sloppy shove because he has the best hand and I was tarped. it's hard for me to believe a line that has us folding an over pair vs unknown getting 3/1 is the way to go. So if he'll shove either way I should maybe c/c?

what if we check the turn?

I just think if he can show up with any kind of good hand (99-TT, KQ/AQ), he's too passive to valuebet it. I think he's more likely to call a big river bet with worse than shove busted straight draws or value shove worse.