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Spin & Go Win Ratio

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  1. #1

    Default Spin & Go Win Ratio

    Hi everyone

    What would be a good win ratio in Spin & Go? Last month I played 187 S&G' and won 78 of them, giving me a win ratio of 41.71%

    I made a plus, so that is fine, but would a win ratio like that give a plus in most months?
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  2. #2
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    I have no idea what "spin and go" means. I know what a sit-n-go structure is.

    This is a generalized formula for EV. It works for all manner of situations when you have different outcomes with different values occurring at different probabilities. It doesn't matter what the game or structure of the game is. It is more general than games.

    To find the EV, you multiply each probability by it's associated value, then add them up.

    Take the % of times you win (41.71%) times the average value of a win ($X.XX), and
    Subtract the % of times you lose (58.29%) times the average value of a buy-in ($Y.YY).

    (0.4171)($X.XX) - (0.5829)($Y.YY) = EV
  3. #3
    Does not apply to a spin n go MMM. These are "sngs"introduced by pstars which are played 3 handed and you get dealt 500 chips.
    The prizepool is drawn randomly when it starts and it can have a multiplier of 2x up to 3000 times your buyin
    So if when you register to a 1$ spin n go, the prize pool will be of 2$, 4, 6, 10, 20, 30, 100 up to 3000$ .
    The biggest buyin is 30$ and so the winner will get 90k$ .
    The only good thing about it is that for the highest of multipliers everyone gets paid $
    The crazy 3000x30$ has been won 12 hours ago and the prizepool is 108$ so winner gets 90k, and the 18k is split equally between the other 2 players. We're talking 90k won in 3-4-5minutes and a 30$ buyin
    I bet americans are dying they can not gamble on these babies.

    Pokerking, I would say that the win ratio is not that important as all it matter is if you hit the really big multipliers And win them.
    There have been played in the area of 8mil spin*goes as far as I know, and regs are complaining that the variance is incredibly high and it's pretty hard to get a real ROI because of the random multiplier factor.
    My advice for you would be to simply not play them. These were meant to attract fish, are crazy swingy and should not be grinded daily because the ROI is very small and it this variance can kill almost any bankroll. You probably need like 300 buyins to play these comfortably even though you know you are beating the limit.
    This is my opinion, I'm sure some will disagree
  4. #4
    Here, I made two ss so you can see how the lobby looks
    spinngo.jpg
    spinngo2.jpg

    and this is the lobby of a 120x multiplier for a 1$ spin&go , notice that 1st gets 100$ and 2nd and 3rd both get 10$
    1spingo.jpg
    Last edited by kingmotan; 12-01-2014 at 02:31 PM.
  5. #5
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kingmotan View Post
    Does not apply to a spin n go MMM.
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    It works [...] when you have different outcomes with different values occurring at different probabilities.
    Quote Originally Posted by kingmotan View Post
    The prizepool is drawn randomly when it starts and it can have a multiplier of 2x up to 3000 times your buyin
    So if when you register to a 1$ spin n go, the prize pool will be of 2$, 4, 6, 10, 20, 30, 100 up to 3000$ .
    The biggest buyin is 30$ and so the winner will get 90k$ .
    The only good thing about it is that for the highest of multipliers everyone gets paid $
    Everything about this section says that there is a collection of situations, which occur independently to one another, and which have various values.

    You have different outcomes with different values occurring at different probabilities. The definition of EV has been outlined for you, why do you fight that it's relevant? EV is always applicable to a decision with unknown factors.

    Estimate the value and frequency of each occurance. Make sure your frequencies all add up to 100%. Do the calc.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by kingmotan View Post
    Does not apply to a spin n go MMM. These are "sngs"introduced by pstars which are played 3 handed and you get dealt 500 chips.
    The prizepool is drawn randomly when it starts and it can have a multiplier of 2x up to 3000 times your buyin
    So if when you register to a 1$ spin n go, the prize pool will be of 2$, 4, 6, 10, 20, 30, 100 up to 3000$ .
    The biggest buyin is 30$ and so the winner will get 90k$ .
    The only good thing about it is that for the highest of multipliers everyone gets paid $
    The crazy 3000x30$ has been won 12 hours ago and the prizepool is 108$ so winner gets 90k, and the 18k is split equally between the other 2 players. We're talking 90k won in 3-4-5minutes and a 30$ buyin
    I bet americans are dying they can not gamble on these babies.

    Pokerking, I would say that the win ratio is not that important as all it matter is if you hit the really big multipliers And win them.
    There have been played in the area of 8mil spin*goes as far as I know, and regs are complaining that the variance is incredibly high and it's pretty hard to get a real ROI because of the random multiplier factor.
    My advice for you would be to simply not play them. These were meant to attract fish, are crazy swingy and should not be grinded daily because the ROI is very small and it this variance can kill almost any bankroll. You probably need like 300 buyins to play these comfortably even though you know you are beating the limit.
    This is my opinion, I'm sure some will disagree
    Thank you for your reply. I most definately don't grind them every day, only in the mornings in the weekends, and I start out playing $1, and I must stop when I get down to -$3. I can only play games that cost a third of my session profit, except $1, that I play until I've reached $9. I raise the STOP barrier as my profit grows. So I can only lose $3 in one session. So, it's not so that I put my whole bankroll on the line

    Hope this makes sense? LOL
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  7. #7
    After playing some spin and go's, I have a feeling that they are about Breakeven -> PLUS any bonus prizepools you can manage to win. Get ready for some massive swings tho as these are basically Hypers.
  8. #8
    Renton's Avatar
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    I know a team that is sharing variance on the 30 dollar ones, they're reporting an average ROI of about 4%, which comes out to be a pretty reasonable hourly considering how fast these are. The big prize pools represent less than 1 dollar of the buyin and should be considered in a similar way to bad beat jackpot rake in cash games.
  9. #9
    Renton's Avatar
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    By the way, there is no ICM to consider in these since its winner-take-all, so as long as your win percentage is over 33% + x where x factors the rake into account, you're a winning player. 41.71% seems perfectly reasonable.
  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    By the way, there is no ICM to consider in these since its winner-take-all, so as long as your win percentage is over 33% + x where x factors the rake into account, you're a winning player. 41.71% seems perfectly reasonable.
    Thank you. That was kind of what I was thinking aswell. So far this month I'm down $4 over 52 played games, and my winratio is on 38.46%

    The only problem is that it seems I've been very unlucky getting to many of the smallest Prize Pools so far this month
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  11. #11
    Renton's Avatar
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    You probably need to have a substantially large winrate to have reasonable variance in these games, though.



    I calculated the 30s, the columns of win percentages assume that you take more and more of the upper prize tiers for granted as "rake." As you can see you would need a 44% winrate to beat 30 dollar spin n go's if you were so incredibly unlucky that you only got 60 and 120 prize pools.
    Last edited by Renton; 12-14-2014 at 07:54 AM.
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    You probably need to have a substantially large winrate to have reasonable variance in these games, though.



    I calculated the 30s, the columns of win percentages assume that you take more and more of the upper prize tiers for granted as "rake." As you can see you would need a 44% winrate to beat 30 dollar spin n go's if you were so incredibly unlucky that you only got 60 and 120 prize pools.
    Very interesting, as it's very rare that it spins to the fourth highest PP in my experience, it would mean that you would need a win ratio of 36.83% on the $30 Spin & Go's, and as the third highest Prize Pool is 7500 out of 100000 in all Buy-In, I suppose you can say that those 36.83% is the win ratio to beat overall, when playing all of them, or a mix. Am I right?
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