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Are SNGs dead?

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  1. #1

    Default Are SNGs dead?

    Are SNGs kaput after Black Friday? I can barely sit down at a $16 table and find an opponent with a VPIP over 15 at first couple of levels. Today I was two-tabling and 1 person knocked themselves out before the 100/200 level. Personally my results have been tracking sideways since Black Friday, but I scoped a couple of regs and noticed similar trends in their data. This is by no means a comprehensive study that should make everyone run around screaming the sky is going to fall on our heads, I'm just thinking it might be time to move on from SNGs. That's kind of a scary thought for me.
  2. #2
    Ya, I noticed pretty much the same thing when I played a few games during the Easter weekend. Managed to find a couple of tables of non-regs which played like the games used to but I avoided tables full of regs (some of them with 5+ of them).

    Guess all we can do is wait to see how the situation settles after Black Friday. That said, 180s are still reasonably soft...
  3. #3
    I practise table selection and only register for games with max 1 reg and I'm regularly ending up playing 3-5 known regs.
  4. #4
    DoubleJ's Avatar
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    Where are yous guys playing? Just 'Stars?

    Have you looked at the Pre-BF nonUS sites? Are they the same?

    just a thought....
  5. #5
    Ive not long been playing on stars i only signed up so i could join the study group and now im trying to clear my bonus. Ive been playing mostly the 6.50 turbos and in the past week ive noticed the same 5 or 6 ppl on every table. I normally play on party poker $6 and $11 speeds which are really soft. The $6 only have a few regs who arnt that good anyway and the $11 arnt that much harder. I think i read somewhere that when party poker left america the same thing happened with them and the sng were just full of regs but it seems they have all gone now at least at the lower limits.
  6. #6
    I also expect the market to self-regulate eventually. If a place is too full of regs, then the regs won't like it and will move elsewhere, making the place less full of regs.
    Last edited by Fielmann; 04-29-2011 at 08:25 AM.
  7. #7
    I'm going to try run a few figures over the next few days, but here's a preview.

    Average duration of a $16 game

    Pre Black Friday - 32.3 minutes (10 000 games)
    Post Black Friday - 45.3 minutes (900 games)
  8. #8
    I don't table select but I've had no trouble at the Fifty50s. The games are filling up quickly and there are no more regs than normal. Pretty sure the games are softer too.
    - You're the reason why paradise lost
  9. #9
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    yea on FT games seem, same if not softer, only difference is the time it takes to fill up (playing mostly 11+1 turbos, some 22+2)
  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by kevster View Post
    I don't table select but I've had no trouble at the Fifty50s. The games are filling up quickly and there are no more regs than normal. Pretty sure the games are softer too.
    Too bad I suck at these! Also that min-raising gets on my nurves....
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    Too bad I suck at these! Also that min-raising gets on my nurves....
    Min-raising FTW! I didn't do it until Baudib mentioned it but there's tons of EV in this.
    - You're the reason why paradise lost
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    Too bad I suck at these! Also that min-raising gets on my nurves....
    Also, you could kill these easily Rob. Email me or post in the other thread if you want to discuss anything.
    - You're the reason why paradise lost
  13. #13
    fml i wish i could play
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by baudib View Post
    fml i wish i could play
    The 'other' forum generally felt that ROI with Fifty50s was somewhere between 5-10%. That may be accurate but it's definitely higher now. Depends on many factors obv but I'm coming off the back of a significant downswing (inc. some mistakes) and my ROI is still 8% (small-ish sample) but I also feel I'm still refining my play.

    Hard to say if the games are lots softer but they're definitely softer. Presumably though some euro-grinders that have been hiding out on other sites will flood to Stars though? Hard to estimate I guess.
    - You're the reason why paradise lost
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by kevster View Post
    Also, you could kill these easily Rob. Email me or post in the other thread if you want to discuss anything.
    Cool, I'll mail you now.
  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    I'm going to try run a few figures over the next few days, but here's a preview.

    Average duration of a $16 game

    Pre Black Friday - 32.3 minutes (10 000 games)
    Post Black Friday - 45.3 minutes (900 games)
    Something was bothering about this, the difference just seemed too big. In my haste I realised I mistakenly quoted the number of hours played as the duration. It should be this.

    Average duration of a $16 game

    Pre Black Friday - 32.3 minutes (10 000 games)
    Post Black Friday - 32.9 minutes (1000 games)

    So there really isn't a significant difference pre and post.
  17. #17
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    I've been finding the tables to be really soft with alot of new players on the tables (depending upon time of day). I'm referring to the reg. speed $5's & $10's on FTP. I have pokerprolabs software running (....they haven't been able to get FTP results for most of April so stats. are off a bit) & there are a ton of players with <50games & who are playing sooooo bad it reminds me of $1 sng's on Pokerstars a few yrs. ago. I'm talking unbelievably insane bad play... ie. limping utg with Q5o & flatting a 4bet pre, check/call 3streets w bottom pr.; another, utg limps w 42s (MP raise, LP reraise)..& utg calls. Utg donkbets 'min' on flop with gutterball... MP raise.. LP shoves.. utg calls.

    Sounds kinda ridiculous? No word of a lie. It's actually been blowin' me away but at the same time has me workin' overtime on the 'tilt factor' ("wtf? omfg.... how in the fk?"). Games are filling up slow though.

    My roll on the big two is real small atm (& has been for 2011), & used to grind the 27plyr. a bit as I've always found them to be super soft & is easy to maintain a high ROI in them (seems like horrible players flock to them). Tried playing a couple real short sessions & took ~10mins. to have 6 of them up & running, splitting between a couple buyins ($3 & $5 on Stars). Plan now for grinding them is to have FTP, Stars & Titan going at same time, playing the 27's (reg.spd.) on Stars & FTP & the 30plyr. on Titan.
    My partner plays the $20-$50 on FTP & she's been finding the tables to be pretty soft too. There's your 3-5regs. on each but alot of real bad players too.
  18. #18
    ^^^
    What he said about ftp is spot on for 11 & 22 turbos too. Reg speeds on pokerstars got alot harder thou esp ko's got a ton more regs some of whom are pretty decent.
  19. #19
    DoubleJ's Avatar
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    Hi Nak,

    Howzit?

    re:

    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    I practise table selection and only register for games with max 1 reg....
    Do you have any software tools you can recommend to assist w/ table selection?

    And how do you spot a reg if you've not met them before?

    Thanks as always!
  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    Hi Nak,

    Howzit?
    Damn, you speak South African ?

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    And how do you spot a reg if you've not met them before?
    I don't use any software in particular because that's not allowed and I'm a good boy. It's usually against the T&C's because it involves stats from games you have not played in.

    Most poker sites allow you to take notes and colour-code players. On PS there are 8 colours, so I think my ranking system goes something like this.

    Red = Deadly reg
    Orange = Ordinary reg
    Yellow = Meh reg
    Dark Blue = Good, not reg
    Light Blue = Bad reg
    Purple = Spazzy reg
    Pink = Spazzy whale
    Green = Fish

    The answer you are looking for is that you can't tell if players are regulars until you play a couple of sessions. I have a very good visual memory so I can usually identify when I've played players before. Your HUD will then confirm how many hands you have a particular player. You can make certain assumptions like if you see a player on most days, he's obviously a reg. If you have 500 hands on a player, he's more than likely a reg. Most regs tend to fall into the 10/8 - 15/12 VPIP/PRF during the first two levels. If I see those figures over small sample sizes, I usually make an assumption that they generally know what they are doing and it's ok to assume they are a regular or are at least semi-competent until you see otherwise.

    If I deem a player to be a reg, I usually tag him orange him. If I think he's very good, he gets the red tag eventually. If I see him do something dumb, he'll get downgraded to yellow, light-blue or purple depending on his mistakes and the frequency with which he makes them. Occasionally I'll move players up a bracket as mistakes can be mis-clicks or an infrequent error.

    Oh, and you can see the colour-coding in the PS lobby, which is really handy. I avoid games with more than 1 red, orange or yellow player.
    Last edited by Nakamura; 05-16-2011 at 10:29 AM.
  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    Damn, you speak South African ?
    Is it?

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    I don't use any software in particular because that's not allowed and I'm a good boy
    Yes. Well done.

    I was curious, as the Table Selection stuff seems to only be able to tell you when players are already at at table, which for SnGs would be a bit after the fact, I theenk.

    But - hypothetically - if you weren't so scrupulous , could you use something like SharkScope to help you detect [unknown] regs and then apply your tagging method?

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    I was curious, as the Table Selection stuff seems to only be able to tell you when players are already at at table, which for SnGs would be a bit after the fact, I theenk.
    No, if you have a look at the table lobby on Stars you can see all the players already registered. Often there are multiple regs already registered on a couple of tables. I'll then find the first table where only 1 reg is already registered. Many regs have the same policy but there are quite a few who don't seem to pratise table selection. So while you may register at a table with only one reg, a couple may over-reg after you join. I tend not to de-register from games due to over-regging because I'd never get anything done. Honestly, over-regging is endemic and you can't really avoid it. Fortunately the best players have usually worked out that over-regging is pretty harmful to their profits.

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    But - hypothetically - if you weren't so scrupulous , could you use something like SharkScope to help you detect [unknown] regs and then apply your tagging method?
    Well Sharkscope gives you way more info, so tagging using ROI would be much better. Unfortunately free searches are limited and if you search every player at the table, you won't be winning player anymore .

    Use your eyes and your brain. Software can make your life easier, but I wouldn't advise looking for Patsy's Magic Bullet (Worms ref obv). What I'm driving at is every player has certain tendencies, certain mistakes they'll make over and over again ... every player. Your job is to find them, understand them and exploit them when similar situations crop up. Notes can be very helpful in this regard.
  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    No, if you have a look at the table lobby on Stars you can see all the players already registered.
    gaaah -sorry, my point was ambiguous, eh? By "Table Selection stuff" I meant commercially available software. This all seems to be aimed at finding cash tables...unless you know of a SnG-specific tool?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    Software can make your life easier..
    I take your point, but I'm all for using whatever I can to gain an advantage, as I don't yet have Nakamuraesque poker-spidey senses. The trick w/ any tool - I guess - is to not become reliant on it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    ...if you search every player at the table, you won't be winning player anymore
    Weeeelll....there's stuff [stuff again...meh] available that can do the searching for you as u play. You can then augment your notes w/ ROI, # of Games, etc. during breaks or between hands.

    Thanks again, my friend. I'm off to lob some boerwors on the braai
  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    ...unless you know of a SnG-specific tool?
    These are mostly cash based because when you leave a table in a SNG, your HUD doesn't 'know' how the table played out. So it's basically an incomplete record. Cash lends itself to table scanning much more for a variety of reasons that are beyond the scope of this thread. To answer your question, I don't know of a specific SNG-tool, legal issues aside.

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    I take your point, but I'm all for using whatever I can to gain an advantage, as I don't yet have Nakamuraesque poker-spidey senses. The trick w/ any tool - I guess - is to not become reliant on it.
    Daily sacrifices of virgins help. When I started poker I though there was a 'system' that would instantly bring me riches. Sorry Doyle Brunson, there is no Super System. Poker is part feel, part science, part luck. When I table select the point isn't really to 'analyse' my opponents, it's to avoid a high concentration of players who know what they are doing and therefore won't make big mistakes that I can profit off. If you can search the odd player here an there, good but this is impossible when you play 10+ tables.

    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    I'm off to lob some boerwors on the braai
    Clearly my China. When did you become so knowledgeable of our customs? Oh, technically we "klap" wors on the braai
  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    When did you become so knowledgeable of our customs?
    oh...y'know...I've travelled...
    Last edited by DoubleJ; 05-17-2011 at 11:18 AM.
  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nakamura View Post
    If I deem a player to be a reg, I usually tag him...
    So...just out of interest, what would you make of this person:

    Player Name
    xxx

    Filter
    Last 1000 games

    Games Played
    82

    Average Profit
    $0.36

    Average ROI %
    30%

    Total Profit
    $29.70

    Average Buy-In
    $1.20

    ITM %
    51%

    Wins/Loses
    42/40

    Showed up about a month ago, plays 4 or so games a day, always in the $1.00+$0.20 Beginner lobby, seemed tight (don't have access to stats right now)...

    Volume is too low to be a Reg, but there's something horribly efficient about that ROI, even with tiny sample size.

    One to avoid?
  28. #28
    there will always be an exception here or there, but there are no good regs at $1, otherwise they would not be at the $1s. You're worrying way too much about the wrong stuff. Focus on improving and moving up. If you can't beat the one buck 'sharks' without avoiding them poker is always just going to be a fun hobby that costs you money. You don't need any special software. Play one table and starting using your brain instead of looking for the easy way out.


    if you had spent the time you've spent posting in this thread

    reading Theory of Poker
    reading good free content like the stickies here / 2+2 or
    reviewing hands
    posting hands

    it would have helped your game 100% more.
  29. #29
    DoubleJ's Avatar
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    woah

    take a chill-pill guy

    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy View Post
    Play one table and starting using your brain instead of looking for the easy way out.
    and get off that fucking high-horse before you get a nosebleed.

    peace

    out
  30. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    woah

    take a chill-pill guy



    and get off that fucking high-horse before you get a nosebleed.

    peace

    out
    drmcboy is spot on. There are plenty free tools and resources available for those who wish to learn. Why flame him for trying to point you in the right direction?
    Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by KoRnholio View Post
    Why flame him for trying to point you in the right direction?
    where - exactly - did he try to do that?

    hmmm?

    i'm having a enjoyable conversation with nakamura [someone who is pleasant and genuinely helpful], and DrButtInski wades in unasked with his usual arrogant, condescending, unthought out crap, and i'm supposed to think that's great?

    oooh.

    sorrry.

    The most disappointing this is - how on earth does an UberTroll like that get administrative privileges to this forum?
    Last edited by DoubleJ; 05-17-2011 at 06:33 PM.
  32. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    where - exactly - did he try to do that?

    hmmm?

    i'm having a pleasant conversation with nakamura [someone who is pleasant and genuinely helpful], and DrButtInski wades in unasked with his usual arrogant, condescending, unthought out crap, and i'm supposed to think that's great?

    oooh.

    sorrry.

    Use the advice nakamura gave you. Take notes on people while playing because you will run in to people more often than you think. I've marked 3-4 people at my level as black and I avaoid them as much as I can because they are very good and rarely make misstakes.
    I did get the tournament shark but I only used it when I was trying to add more tables. It's not always accurate so I still study the people tournament shark says are "good"
    Hope its any help to you
  33. #33
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    Thanks fella

    Quote Originally Posted by adii View Post
    It's not always accurate...
    Hmmmm....interesting. Tell me more, pls.

    Quote Originally Posted by adii View Post
    Use the advice nakamura gave you...
    Mate, I always do. That guy's a true gent.
  34. #34
    you 'asked' when you posted on a public forum. I didn't know you wanted me to ignore your posts. Will do. feel free to call me more names if it helps. I've been called worse.

    I thought quite a bit about my post. I'd be interested to hear which ones you think I did not. I try to be nice but you'll find the vast majority of long term players are both arrogant and condescending and it generally comes through. If you don't believe in yourself and feel like you can beat most everyone else poker will beat you down.

    Re-read nak's posts if you want to ignore mine. I just re stated what he said because it felt like you were not getting it. best of luck to you.
    Last edited by drmcboy; 05-17-2011 at 11:46 PM.
  35. #35
    also don't take it out on FTR, I'm really just a moderator of a dead forum. They just gave me admin rights because a long time ago only admins could ban people and we needed spam protection. and I have no life so I'm here all the time.
  36. #36
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    look, let's not let this get out of hand, eh?

    I appreciate that you have a certain...errrm...."style" to your posts, but that "start using your brain" crack was well out-of-order, and it pissed me off enormously.

    I apologise if I overreacted

    I'm genuinely grateful for all the advice I've recieved at FTR. Pls don't assume that 'coz I like to chew things over that I'm arguing back or "not getting it". I'm just chewing things over and trying to learn. OK?

    Loving your new avatar tag, btw.

    Last edited by DoubleJ; 05-18-2011 at 02:01 AM.
  37. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy View Post
    I have no life so I'm here all the time.
    Honesty FTW!

    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy View Post
    DrButtInski wades in unasked with his usual arrogant, condescending, unthought out crap, and i'm supposed to think that's great?
    FWIW, simple advice from the good doctor has helped me probably more than anyone else on this forum.
    - You're the reason why paradise lost
  38. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    Thanks fella



    Hmmmm....interesting. Tell me more, pls.



    Mate, I always do. That guy's a true gent.


    For example it has this ranking from 2 to A on how good opponents are. Well I've noticed that sometimes the K guys who should be really good sometimes are complete donks. If you look them up they have won a few hundred $ in a single tourney but the rest of the results are quiet bad. And when you see a a guy thats supposed to be good play K4 or 10 2s and calling 1/8 of his stack you can pretty much label him as a donk.
  39. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by kevster View Post
    FWIW, simple advice from the good doctor has helped me probably more than anyone else on this forum.
    And one day soon, I hope to be able to say that, too.

    Once I get used to his - shall we say - "peculiar" method of delivery?

    Fas est et ab hoste doceri
  40. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by adii View Post
    ...I've noticed that sometimes the K guys who should be really good sometimes are complete donks...
    Hmmm...thanks, mate. I'll keep an eye out for that.
  41. #41
    lolz .... DrButtInski.

    I don't think the Doc was seriously implying you aren't currently using your brain, perhaps that just focusing on areas other than software would be more beneficial to your poker development. For sure Doc has a different style to me, but there is a lot of good info in his post above minus the sugar coating.
  42. #42
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    yeh - racing incident.

    I've apologised; me 'n' The Doc are down like that now...

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